GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10291-022-01343-y

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Spatiotemporal accuracy evaluation and errors analysis of global VTEC

maps using a simulation technique
Jian Lin1   · Xinxing Li2 · Shenfeng Gu3 · Yidong Lou3 · Qing Yun2

Received: 11 May 2021 / Accepted: 28 September 2022

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022

Abstract
The computation of vertical total electron content (VTEC) maps has become an important issue gradually for the international
GNSS service. Given the current literature reports, little research is involved in the quantitative analysis of each error of
the VTEC map and the spatiotemporal characteristic of global VTEC accuracy. Based on the single layer model and sphere
harmonic function, we propose an approach using simulated GPS data to comprehensively verify the accuracy of the VTEC
map. The spatiotemporal characteristic of global VTEC accuracy and the errors induced by different processing steps, i.e.,
carrier phase to code leveling, mapping function (MF), DCB estimation and coefficient fitting, are analyzed and discussed
in detail. In addition, the effect of solar activity on the accuracy of the global VTEC map, MF and DCB estimation has been
discussed. The results suggest: First, it is found that the MF error at sunrise is more significant than that at sunset, and this
important characteristic can be proven based on the analysis of theory and ionospheric radio occultation and VTEC measure-
ments; second, the MF is the most significant error source in the VTEC processing for regions with dense and homogeneous
distributed GPS stations, e.g., North America and Europe. The VTEC accuracy in these regions can be improved by 100%
with the satellite elevation cutoff angle increasing from 12° to 30°; finally, compared with the global VTEC accuracy using
350 GPS stations observations, the accuracy is improved by 306% based on the double GPS stations with even distribution.

Keywords  GPS · VTEC · Accuracy · Simulation technique

Introduction space weather, empirical ionospheric models and user navi-

The total electron content (TEC) is one of the most critical
parameters from the perspective of ionospheric applications,
which is defined as the integral of the electron density along
a given ray path. The dual-frequency (L1 = 1575.42 MHz
and L2 = 1227.60 MHz) Global Positioning System (GPS)
signals provide an effective way of measuring the TEC due
to the dispersion characteristic of the ionosphere. The reli-
able global maps of vertical TEC (VTEC maps) play an
important role in both the science and technology fields.
Especially, they can provide useful information concerning
* Jian Lin
ljian2008@126.com
1
National Institute of Natural Hazards, MEMC,
Beijing 100085, China
2
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Geodesy, CEA,
Wuhan 430071, Hubei, China
3
GNSS Research Center, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079,
China
gation improvement (Coster and Komjathy 2008; Bilitza
2001; Hernández-Pajares et al.2000).
The computation of VTEC maps has become an impor-
tant issue gradually for the international Global Navigation
Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS). The independ-
ent global ionospheric maps (GIMs) have been provided
by several IGS Ionosphere Associated Analysis Centers
(IAACs) since 1998, i.e., CODE (Center for Orbit Deter-
mination in Europe), JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), ESA
(European Space Agency), UPC (Technical University
of Catalonia), CAS (Chinese Academy of Sciences) and
WHU (Wuhan University). Though different approaches are
involved in the ionosphere modeling, the GIMs are rather
consistent among different IAACs (Schaer 1999; Feltens
1998, 2007; Mannucci et al. 1998; Hernández-Pajares et al.
1999, 2009; Roma-Dollase et al. 2018).
Concerning the accuracy evaluation of the global
VTEC maps, Sekido et  al. (2003) assessed the accu-
racy of GIMs (global ionosphere maps) with respect to
the dual-band very long baseline interferometry (VLBI)

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TEC measurements. It is found that the overall accuracy Approach for VTEC map and data simulation
of CODE VTEC is around 3.7 – 3.9 TECU. It is argued
that the VLBI instrument bias, similar to GPS satellite Various models are available nowadays for GNSS iono-
DCB (differential code bias), must be carefully removed spheric delay modeling, attributed to the efforts of the ion-
to obtain high accuracy TEC. Its value can vary by ± 20 ns, osphere working group of the IGS (Iono-WG), including
and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is about 0.56 ns. the spherical harmonic function (SH) used by ESA, CODE
Hernández-Pajares et al. (2008) validated the IGS VTEC and WHU, the bi-cubic splines representation used by JPL
map by comparing it with the onboard dual-frequency and tomographic with splines used by UPC, etc. In fact,
altimeters of TOPEX and JASON satellites, and the cor- the global VTEC maps based on different methods have
responding JASON vs CODE and JPL VTEC biases are a rather consistent accuracy with each other (Hernández-
2.27 and 2.40 TECU, respectively. Also, the altimeter Pajares et al. 2009; Roma-Dollase et al. 2018).
instrument biases should be carefully removed, and they Based on a thin shell approximation of the ionosphere,
worked only over oceans. In addition, Brunini and Azpili- the so-called single-layer model (SLM) is applied to
cueta (2010) presented a method for assessing the accu- generate global VTEC maps (Hernández-Pajares et  al.
racy of TEC determination using a synthetic dataset free of 2009). The SH approach is among the most popular and
DCB; their contribution is to assess the accuracy of DCB is employed by many (Zhao et al. 2019). Considering the
for different regions, seasons and geomagnetic conditions. amount of work, we only used the SH approach to com-
Also, Conte et al. (2011) utilized the simulation technique pute the global VTEC map based on the simulated data.
to assess the accuracy of GPS-TEC, and one of their most Typically, the geometry-free combination (GF) is used
significant results was that the estimated DCB could be in the ionospheric delay SH modeling. By definition,
affected by errors around ± 8 TECU for high solar activity the GF combination is derived from the dual-frequency
and ± 3TECU for low solar activity. Roma-Dollas et al. observations:
(2018) used two methods to assess the quality of GIMs
� � ⎫
during one solar cycle from the different IAACs and found 1
PsGF,r = − 1 40.3𝛾rs Irs + DCBsGF,r + 𝜀PGF ⎪
a generally good agreement in the values between the dif- f12� f22 � ⎬ (1)
ferent GIMs techniques and implementations. Ren et al. ΦsGF,r = − f12 − f12 40.3𝛾rs Irs + NGF,r
s
+ 𝜀ΦGF ⎪
(2019) evaluated the real-time VTEC maps from several
1 2 ⎭
IGS analysis centers using 2 years of data. They reported
in which
that the accuracy of real-time VTEC maps is slightly
}
worse than that of IGS final GIMS, and the positioning DCBsGF,r = bsr,1 − bsr,2
accuracy of PPP solution corrected by real-time VTEC s
NGF,r s
= 𝜆1 Nr,f s
− 𝜆2 Nr,f (2)
can reach decimeter level in the horizontal direction and
meter level in the vertical direction. In addition, Zhao et al. where f1 and f2 are the two GPS carrier frequencies; PsGF,r
(2021) evaluated the reliability of RMS maps involved in and ΦsGF,r are the GF pseudorange and carrier phase from
GIMs from the different IAACs and reported that GIMs receiver r to satellite s in metric units; 𝛾rs and Irs are the map-
from CODE, JPL and WHU provide quite reasonable RMS ping function and VTEC, respectively; bsr,f is the frequency-
maps. Yuan et al. (2020) and Su et al. (2001) discussed
dependent code bias delay for satellite and receiver; Nr,f s
the multilayer mapping function effect on the VTEC map
and DCB. denotes the float ambiguity in the cycles; 𝜆 is the corre-
Based on the simulation technique, we try to evaluate sponding wavelength;and𝜀p , 𝜀Φ denote the measurement
the performance of VTEC from different aspects. Because noise together with the un-model multipath error for pseu-
the precision of the VTEC map can be easily obtained dorange and carrier phase, respectively.
from the formula, our article only focuses on the analysis Since DCBsGF,r and NGF,r s
can be safely regarded as con-
of each error of VTEC (i.e., DCB estimation, map func- stant without cycle slip within a certain period, e.g., 1 day;
tion, leveling, etc.) and the spatiotemporal characteristic PsGF,r is usually smoothed by ΦsGF,r to remove the noise of
of global VTEC accuracy. The simulation technique (Lin pseudorange based on the Hatch filter; this procedure is
and Zhu 2018) has been used to assess the effects of the known as the “carrier to code leveling process”:
leveling process, DCB estimation, map function and coef- ( s )
s i 1 s
PGF,r (i + 1) = PGF,r (i) − ΔΦsGF,r (i + 1) + P (i + 1)
ficient fitting on the accuracy of VTEC, and the proportion i+1 i + 1 GF,r
of each error has been discussed. In addition, the effects of (3)
local time and solar activity on TEC accuracy have been with
investigated and discussed in detail, and some interesting
results have been obtained.

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GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6 Page 3 of 13  6

}
s typical value for GNSS. The detailed descriptions of data
PGF,r (1) = PsGF,r (1)
(4) simulations are given by Lin and Zhu (2018). The multipath
ΔΦGF,r (i + 1) = ΦsGF,r (i + 1) − ΦsGF,r (i)
s
effect could not be ignored during the process of TEC calcu-
lation. The most efficient way is to place the antenna in a low
in addition, the vertical ionospheric delay I is further
multipath environment; fortunately, this is the case for most
modeled with SH expansion (Schaer 1999)
IGS stations. In addition, the choke ring antenna became the
∑nmax ∑n ( )
I𝛽,s = P̃ nm (sin𝛽) C̃ nm cos(ms) + S̃ nm sin(ms) standard multipath-reducing antenna of choice for ground
n=0 m=0
reference stations (Teunissen, Peter and Oliver Montenbruck
(5)
2017). Finally, for the residual multipath effect, it is usually
where 𝛽 and s are the geomagnetic latitude and sun-fixed treated as noise, and the satellite elevation angle weighting
longitude of the interception point of the line of sight; nmax function, i.e., sigma = 1/sin(e)*sigma_zenith is introduced
is the maximum degree of the SH expansion; P̃ nm is the to estimate the multipath noise for the low elevation angle
normalized associated Legendre function of degree n and signal, where sigma_zenith is the multipath noise at the ele-
order m ; and C
̃ nm and ̃
Snm are the unknown SH coefficients vation angle of 90° (Hartinger and Brunner 1999; McGraw
and global ionosphere map (GIM) parameters, respectively 2000).
(Schaer 1999). By substituting (5) in (1), the SH coefficient Based on the simulation data and the known ionospheric
can be estimated along with the DCBs. Typically, the DCB effect (called true value), it is very easy to evaluate each
is treated as a daily constant, and the SH coefficients are error in VTEC maps and analyze the spatiotemporal char-
estimated as random walk parameters (Zhang et al. 2021). acteristic of VTEC accuracy. The accuracy is evaluated in
terms of the RMSE of bias between the calculated and true
Data simulation values. In addition, GCPM is smooth in space and time in
its nature. However, the real ionosphere is not so smooth but
Because it is hard to find the more accurate TEC from other includes a lot of spatial and temporal fluctuations. During
measurements to evaluate the performance of the global data simulation, those fluctuations cannot be simulated and
VTEC map, the method using simulated data is proposed to would be an additional noise to affect the SH expansion.
assess the VTEC accuracy.
The brief description of data simulation is as follows. The
pseudorange observations without any error can be obtained Global VTEC map evaluation
in advance based on the geometrical range known between
the GPS stations and GPS satellites. The carrier phase obser- The simulation of the raw GPS data will be carried out on
vations without any error can be generated based on the geo- April 15 during the years 2003–2013 (solar cycle). Figure 1
metrical range, carrier phase wavelength and ambiguities shows the global distribution of 350 IGS GPS stations, most
known in advance. The simulated carrier phase and pseu- of which cover the continental northern hemisphere.
dorange observations used in this research could be obtained Figure 2 presents the global distribution of VTEC bias
by the injection of the errors known in advance (called true on April 15, 2007, as a case study, and this figure consists
value). According to (1), all the frequency-independent of 12 contour maps, each of which represents a certain time
effects, e.g., the satellite-receiver geometrical range, clock of the day. The accuracy of VTEC is 1.99TECU. The bias
errors and tropospheric delay, are canceled. Therefore, for
the simulation of carrier phase and pseudorange observa-
tions during the TEC determination, the effects of the iono-
sphere, the observational noise and any other frequency-
dependent factors need consideration. The ionospheric
effect (TEC) along the ray path between the GPS stations
and GPS satellites derived from the Global Core Plasma
Model (GCPM) can be injected into the simulated obser-
vations. GCPM is an empirical description of typical ther-
mal magnetospheric plasma densities in the plasmasphere,
makes use of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)
for low altitudes and extends toward the plasmapause (up to
36,000 km). The observational noise in the code and phase
was generated by white Gaussian distribution. Taking the
daily stability into consideration, the DCB was simulated Fig. 1  Global distribution of IGS GPS stations, the GPS data sample
as a random const ranging from −1 0 to 10 ns, which is a rate is 1 Hz

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Fig. 2  Global distribution of VTEC bias on April 15, 2007, the black points express the GPS stations, and the satellite elevation cutoff angle is
12°

indicates the difference between the VTEC on the grid and
the true value (i.e., ionosphere model value). As shown in
Fig. 2, it can be seen that the bias around the equator is
pronounced, drifting with earth rotation and reaching the
maximum between 0100 and 0300 loach time. The two fac-
tors contribute to the above bias characteristics. First, the
VTEC value is maximum between 0100 and 0300 during the
daytime, which leads to the large bias value; second, during
this period, ionosphere spherical symmetry works poorly
around the region of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA),
which also cause the large deviation. The second characteris-
tic of the global VTEC map evaluation is that the bias of the
VTEC map in the northern hemisphere is better than that in
the southern hemisphere, which is related to the asymmetric
distribution of the northern and southern hemisphere GPS
stations.
Analysis of mapping function error
In the single ionospheric layer model, the slant TEC (STEC)
can be converted into VTEC by using the mapping function
(MF),
/√
( )2
1 1
MF = = 1 −
Re
cos 𝜃 (6)
cos z Re +Hion
where z is the zenith angle at the ionospheric pierce point
(IPP), Re and Hion are the radius of the earth and the iono-
sphere height of the SLM, respectively, and 𝜃 is the satellite
elevation cutoff angle. Typically, the thin-layer ionosphere
height Hion is chosen to be 450 km. The common MF based
on the assumption of ionosphere local spherical symmetry,
which only depends on the satellite elevation cutoff angle,
does not take into account the local time, location and azi-
muth angle.
To analyze the MF error, we compare the global VTEC at
the ionospheric pierce point with the true value. The abso-
lute and relative RMSE is shown in Table 1. Please note that
the evaluated VTEC is converted from the true STEC based
on the MF; therefore, only the MF error is included in the
VTEC. As shown in Table 1, the MF error is evaluated in
terms of RMSE, and RMSE presents the MF error based on
all the satellites with elevation angles above 12°, while for
the satellites with elevation angles 12°–30°, 30°–60° and
60°–90°, the MF error is denoted as RMSE1, RMSE2 and

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Table 1  Systematic assessment of global MF error in terms of abso- accuracies improve with increasing angle cutoff, while
lute and relative RMSE the South America and Africa VTEC accuracies decrease.
UT RMSE RMSE1 RMSE2 RMSE3 One can conclude that the global VTEC accuracy does not
obviously improve with increasing satellite elevation cut-
0: 00 1.56/3.31 2.10/4.53 1.19/2.71 0.93/2.29
off angle. Even more, it has become worse on the islands
2: 00 1.63/3.20 2.20/4.47 1.29/2.62 0.80/2.06
(South America and Africa) with few GPS stations due to
4: 00 1.72/3.24 2.24/4.40 1.39/2.68 0.94/2.00
the decreases in observations with the increase in satellite
6: 00 1.61/2.83 2.17/3.79 1.20/2.29 0.81/1.94
elevation cutoff angle. Second, the VTEC accuracy on the
8: 00 1.50/2.79 1.96/3.82 1.19/2.21 1.02/2.09
islands (North America and Europe) with large amounts of
10: 00 1.57/3.01 2.02/4.06 1.29/2.44 0.99/2.11
GPS stations is significantly improved with the increase in
12: 00 1.54/3.17 1.92/4.16 1.31/2.62 1.12/2.47
satellite elevation cutoff angle, and the improvement can
14: 00 1.48/3.19 1.86/4.09 1.24/2.76 1.15/2.52
reach 120% from 12° to 30°.
16: 00 1.52/3.18 1.76/3.98 1.38/2.67 1.12/2.40
Similar to Table 2, Tables 3 and 4 show the mean of
18: 00 1.46/3.19 1.77/4.04 1.21/2.62 1.17/2.54
global and continent VTEC accuracy statistical results in
20: 00 1.46/3.34 1.88/4.33 1.17/2.85 1.02/2.49
daytime and nighttime as well as summer and winter during
22: 00 1.45/3.31 1.76/4.06 1.25/2.90 1.00/2.50
2003–2013, respectively. It is easy to understand that the
Mean 1.54/3.15 1.97/4.14 1.26/2.61 1.01/2.29
accuracy statistical results in the nighttime and summer are
The results based on the samples with satellite elevation angles better than those in the daytime and winter, respectively.
12°–30°, 30°–60° and 60°–90° are denoted as RMSE1, RMSE2 and Actually, it is crucial that important conclusions can be
RMSE3, respectively, while RMSE represents the MF error based on drawn no matter which statistical way of VTEC accuracy is
the satellites with elevation angle range 12°–90°. The numbers in the
table are absolute value (TECU)/relative value (%)
chosen. First of all, the global VTEC accuracy is not obvi-
ously improved with the increase in satellite elevation cutoff
angle. Even more, it has become worse on the islands with
RMSE3, respectively. It can be clearly seen that with the few GPS stations. Second, the VTEC accuracy on the islands
increase in satellite elevation cutoff angle, the absolute and with large amounts of GPS stations is significantly improved
relative MF error decreases. The effect is more significant with the increase in satellite elevation cutoff angle. In addi-
when the angle is from 30° to 60°. However, the effect is not tion, the simulated observation noises, such as the multipath
obvious when the angle increases to 60°. In other words, the effects, are not canceled in the study.
relationship between MF error increases and the degrading The MF error is caused by the assumption of ionosphere
of cutoff angles is not simply linear. In addition, the increase spherical symmetry, and the performance of ionosphere
in satellite elevation cutoff angle helps to restrain the MF spherical symmetry depends on the position of the sun over
error, but it would also lead to the reduction of observations the GPS station. Figure 3 shows the variation of the MF
for the construction of ionospheric delay modeling. Based error related to local time. Considering the daily variation
on the above analysis and discussion, it may be an excellent of the ionosphere, the relative RMSE is used in the research,
choice to set the cutoff angle to 30° considering the control √
√ N ( )2
of MF error and the guarantee of observations. √1 ∑
RMSEREL = √
VTEC − TRUE
In order to analyze the effect of satellite elevation cut- × 100% (7)
N i=1 TRUE
off angle variation on the global and continental (except for
Antarctica) VTEC accuracy, Table 2 carries out the VTEC and its formula is given (7). As shown in Fig.  3, it can
accuracy statistics based on the cutoffs in satellite elevation be seen that the relative RMSE of MF is most significant
angles of 12, 20 and 30°, respectively, above which the satel- around 0500–0700 local time (sunrise), and its maximum
lite is used for analysis. As seen in Fig. 1, according to the reaches 4.6%. In addition, the relative RMSE tends to
density and homogeneity of GPS stations in each continent, increase around 1800–2000 local time (sunset), and its maxi-
it can be divided into excellent, good and poor grades; the mum is 3.3%. At noon, the relative RMSE is the smallest.
corresponding continents are North America and Europe, In ionosphere research, it is generally acknowledged that the
Oceania and Asia, and South America and Africa, respec- assumption of ionosphere spherical symmetry works poorly
tively. As shown in Table 2, it can be found that improve- at sunrise and sunset and well at noon. For the first time, we
ment of the global VTEC accuracy is not obvious with the found that the MF error at sunrise is more significant than
increase in satellite elevation cutoff angle. On the contrary, at sunset.
it becomes poor when the angle reaches 30°. Second, it Furthermore, we have checked out the relative RMSE of
is worth noting that when the angle is increased from 12° MF during the years of 2002–2013 (including one solar cycle).
to 30° in North America and Europe, the VTEC accuracy As shown in Fig. 4, the same conclusion that the MF error at
can be improved by 100%. The Oceania and Asia VTEC

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Table 2  Global and continents Continent North America Europe Oceania

VTEC accuracy statistical
results in terms of RMSE Angles 12° 20° 30° 12° 20° 30° 12° 20° 30°
related to the cutoffs in satellite
elevation angles above 12°, 20° 2003 1.21 0.86 0.58 1.38 0.94 0.57 2.19 1.53 1.71
and 30°, respectively (Unit: 2004 1.07 0.77 0.52 1.26 0.90 0.58 1.67 1.13 1.27
TECU) 2005 0.98 0.71 0.47 1.17 0.84 0.57 1.41 0.96 1.08
2006 0.87 0.63 0.42 1.06 0.77 0.55 1.22 0.83 0.93
2007 0.80 0.59 0.41 0.99 0.74 0.53 1.13 0.78 0.88
2008 0.71 0.53 0.36 0.90 0.68 0.49 1.03 0.73 0.82
2009 0.72 0.52 0.36 0.89 0.68 0.50 1.04 0.73 0.82
2010 0.86 0.64 0.43 1.05 0.77 0.54 1.20 0.82 0.92
2011 1.00 0.72 0.47 1.18 0.84 0.56 1.44 0.97 1.09
2012 1.23 0.88 0.62 1.41 0.96 0.57 2.27 1.59 1.79
2013 1.36 0.99 0.73 1.56 1.02 0.58 3.10 2.25 2.52
Mean 0.99 0.72 0.48 1.29 0.83 0.55 1.61 1.12 1.25
Asia South America Africa
2003 2.47 1.90 1.73 3.15 3.16 3.16 2.79 3.27 3.97
2004 2.05 1.59 1.42 2.46 2.38 2.39 2.49 3.02 3.53
2005 1.84 1.45 1.30 2.14 2.15 2.09 2.64 2.90 3.43
2006 1.68 1.34 1.21 1.94 2.06 1.98 2.63 2.81 3.31
2007 1.60 1.29 1.17 1.85 2.03 1.88 2.61 2.70 3.26
2008 1.51 1.22 1.10 1.76 2.08 1.86 2.60 2.64 3.23
2009 1.51 1.21 1.10 1.78 2.08 1.87 2.61 2.64 3.23
2010 1.64 1.31 1.18 2.04 2.07 2.04 2.66 2.73 3.28
2011 1.82 1.44 1.31 2.36 2.25 2.32 2.73 3.00 3.59
2012 2.51 1.88 1.71 3.65 3.20 3.73 2.84 3.38 4.11
2013 3.02 2.32 2.17 4.97 4.85 5.29 3.82 4.31 6.56
Mean 1.97 1.55 1.40 2.55 2.64 3.19 2.77 3.04 3.77
Global
2003 3.35 3.15 3.10
2004 2.61 2.43 2.34
2005 2.31 2.17 2.11
2006 2.09 1.98 2.02
2007 1.99 1.90 2.00
2008 1.87 1.81 2.05
2009 1.87 1.81 2.05
2010 2.08 1.96 2.04
2011 2.37 2.24 2.21
2012 3.46 3.19 3.15
2013 4.57 4.51 4.76
Mean 2.59 2.48 2.53

sunrise is more significant than at sunset could be drawn. In
addition, because the absolute VTEC value during the higher
solar activity year is bigger than that during the lower solar
activity year, the relative RMSE during the higher solar activ-
ity year is generally smaller.
Solar activity and VTEC map
It is well known that geomagnetic activity and solar ion-
izing radiation are two dominant causes of ionospheric

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GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6 Page 7 of 13  6

Table 3  Global and continents Continent North America Europe Oceania

VTEC accuracy statistical
results in daytime and nighttime Angles 12° 20° 30° 12° 20° 30° 12° 20° 30°
related to the cutoffs in satellite
elevation angles above 12°, 20° Daytime 1.00 0.71 0.44 1.17 0.84 0.60 1.45 1.11 0.98
and 30°, respectively (Unit: Nighttime 0.66 0.52 0.38 0.87 0.65 0.45 1.02 0.87 0.79
TECU) Asia South America Africa
Daytime 1.93 1.56 1.43 2.25 2.29 2.55 3.02 3.43 4.23
Nighttime 1.35 1.14 1.08 1.54 1.53 1.64 1.22 1.27 1.55
Global
Daytime 2.61 2.50 2.55
Nighttime 1.45 1.49 1.46

Table 4  Global and continents Continent North America Europe Oceania

VTEC accuracy statistical
results in summer and winter Angles 12° 20° 30° 12° 20° 30° 12° 20° 30°
related to the cutoffs in satellite
elevation angles above 120, 200 Winter 1.22 0.86 0.55 1.39 0.96 0.65 2.17 1.68 1.52
and 300, respectively (Unit: Summer 0.82 0.65 0.50 1.01 0.72 0.51 1.62 1.43 1.31
TECU) Asia South America Africa
Winter 2.38 1.81 1.63 2.60 2.68 3.05 2.49 3.24 3.86
Summer 2.12 1.66 1.73 2.14 2.25 2.76 2.05 2.28 2.76
Global
Winter 3.20 2.96 2.98
Summer 2.77 2.89 2.82

As indicated in Fig. 5, the accuracy of the global VTEC

Fig. 3  Relative RMSE of MF with local time
variability (Mendillo and Schatten 1983; Rishbeth and
Mendillo 2001). The daily Ap index is a measure of the
general level of geomagnetic activity over the globe for a
given day. Ionization depends primarily on the sun and its
activity, and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz)
is a reasonable indicator of solar activity, which is often
called the F10.7 index. The two indices are found inter-
nally in the GCPM model for the user-specified date and
time. For the investigation of the effect of solar activity
on the accuracy of the VTEC map, the evaluation results
on April 15 for the years 2003–2013 are shown in Fig. 5.
map, DCB, MF and leveling process is displayed in the top
panels; the solar radio flux F10.7 and Ap index derived
from the GCPM model are also given in the bottom two
panels, respectively. To evaluate the accuracy of leveling
processing, neither DCB nor ambiguity is included in the
first step of the observation simulation. Then we derived
the STEC from this DCB-free and ambiguity-free observa-
tion and compared it with the “true” STEC we simulated.
As seen in Fig. 5, the value of the Ap index during the
investigation is less than 21, representing quiet-day geo-
magnetic variation. The variation tendency of the VTEC
accuracy is entirely consistent with the variation tendency
of the F10.7 index, and the tendency among the DCB
accuracy, MF accuracy and F10.7 is similar, which implies
that the accuracy of VTEC, DCB and MF is relative with
the solar activity. This phenomenon might be explained
theoretically since that, during the period of quiet-day
geomagnetic variation, the higher F10.7 index, the more
severe effect of the ionosphere, the larger spherical sym-
metry in the ionosphere and estimated DCB, MF error,
therefore, the lower the accuracy of VTEC. The assess-
ment of VTEC accuracy for different solar activity levels
is consistent with Wielgosz et al. (2021).

13
 6  Page 8 of 13
Fig. 4  Relative RMSE of MF with local time during the years of 2002–2013. The values are in percent
Fig. 5  Evaluation results on April 15, during the years 2003–2013.
RMSE of DCB estimation, MP and VTEC (top panel), solar radio
flux F10.7 index (middle panel), and Ap index (bottom panels. The
observational noise of the precise code is 0.3 m
13
GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6
Error component analysis of VTEC map
During the construction of the VTEC map based on the
single-layer model, many errors would be introduced, such
as the error of DCB estimation, MF, leveling and multipath
Table 5 shows the RMSE of MF, multipath, DCB estimation
and leveling process during 2003–2013 based on the satel-
lite elevation angle above 12° and the 0.3 m observational
noise in precise code. Two important characteristics can be
found in Table 5. First, the error of the multipath and lev-
eling process during 2003–2013 does not change; in other
words, this error is not relative with solar activity. Actu-
ally, the leveling error is only related to the observational
noise in precise code (Lin and Zhu 2018), and the multipath
effect only depends on the satellite elevation cutoff angle.
Second, it is clearly seen that the error of MF is dominant
in the several errors. In addition, to investigate the accuracy
variation of the leveling process and slant TEC (STEC) cal-
culation with respect to the observational noise in precise
code varying from 0.3 to 3 m, Table 6 presents the statistical
results. As shown in Table 6, it can be clearly seen that with
the amplification of the noise, the accuracy of the leveling
process and STEC calculation declines almost linearly. Note
GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6 Page 9 of 13  6

Table 5  RMSE statistics during the years 2003–2013 (unit: TECU)

RMSE Year
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

MF 1.21 1.01 0.92 0.84 0.81

Multipath 0.75 0.75 0.78 0.76 0.76
DCB 0.62 0.51 0.43 0.38 0.34
Leveling 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0.77 0.77 0.83 0.94 1.25 1.54

0.75 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.76 0.78
0.31 0.31 0.37 0.44 0.65 0.81
0.32 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.32 0.30

Table 6  Leveling and STEC RMSE with respect to the observational noise in precise code varying from 0.3 to 3 m (unit: TECU)
0.3 m 0.6 m 0.9 m 1.2 m 1.5 m

Leveling RMSE 0.30 0.60 0.89 1.19 1.49

STEC RMSE 0.87 1.07 1.36 1.68 1.99
1.8 m 2.1 m 2.4 m 2.7 m 3.0 m

1.79 2.08 2.38 2.66 2.98

2.38 2.75 3.12 3.45 3.68

that in this step, neither DCB nor ambiguity is included in

the observation simulation.
The satellite elevation angle weighting function, i.e.,
sigma = 1/sin(e)*sigma_zenith, is used to estimate the mul-
tipath noise for the low elevation angle signal, and the obser-
vation with an elevation angle above 30° is equal-weighted.
The spherical harmonic coefficient fitting and the choice of
thin-layer altitude of the ionosphere also affect the accuracy
of the VTEC map. To analyze the coefficient fitting error
separately, the VTEC, including all errors (e.g., leveling pro-
cess, DCB, MF, multipath effect, etc.) on the pierce point,
is replaced by the true value. When only the coefficient fit-
ting error is considered, the mean of the global VTEC map Fig. 6  Global distribution of GPS stations. The blue and red points
accuracy during 2003–2013 is 2.32 TECU. Compared with present the real and virtual GPS stations
the VTEC map considering various errors (the correspond-
ing accuracy of the VTEC map is 2.59 TECU), the accuracy
improvement is not great. Based on the above analyses, it is even more scarce observations on the ocean, which result in
argued that the accuracy of the global VTEC map can hardly the sophisticated algorithm not working well on the ocean.
be improved significantly based on the SH model, even if Based on the above analyses and discussion of VTEC
different strategies are adopted (e.g., the different satellite map errors, it is suggested that the SH model-based global
elevation cutoff angles and thin-layer altitudes are adopted VTEC maps may be significantly improved with more obser-
in different regions). Therefore, we can draw an important vations over the ocean region and increasing the satellite
conclusion that no matter how sophisticated the algorithm elevation cutoff angle. To further confirm this statement, 350
is, it is difficult to greatly improve the accuracy of the global virtual GPS stations have been added. Figure 6 shows the
VTEC map using 350 GPS station data. That is due to the new global distribution of GPS stations, and the blue and red
inhomogeneous distribution of the IGS GPS stations and points present the real and virtual GPS stations, respectively.

13
 6  Page 10 of 13
Fig. 7  Global distribution of VTEC bias on April 15, 2007. The black points express the real and virtual GPS stations. The number of stations is
700, and the satellite elevation angle is 30°
Most virtual GPS stations are distributed on the land, and
the rest are evenly distributed on the ocean.
Similar to Fig. 2, Fig. 7 presents the global distribution
of VTEC bias on April 15, 2007, based on the 700 GPS sta-
tions, and the accuracy of VTEC is 0.49TECU (the satellite
elevation cutoff angle is set to 30°). Compared with Fig. 2,
the accuracy of VTEC using more observations is signifi-
cantly improved, and the accuracy improvement reaches
306%. Second, the EIA influence on global VTEC accuracy
still exists, as well as a pronounced bias around the equator.
Due to the almost homogeneous distribution of the global
stations, the VTEC accuracy of the northern and southern
hemispheres does not differ much. Finally, the leveling error
is about 0.3 TECU, which is only related to the observational
noise in precise code.
Of course, the accuracy of global VTEC is also related
to many other aspects, i.e., the choice of ionospheric model,
mapping function, thin-layer height, fitting function coef-
ficient, etc. We do not discuss each of these items in detail.
Moreover, the dominant factor affecting the accuracy of
VTEC is the number and global distribution of GPS sta-
tions. Second, the selection of satellite elevation angle
also plays an important role. The VTEC accuracy based
13
GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6
on sufficient observations could be significantly improved
with the increase in satellite elevation cutoff angle, and the
improvement can reach 120% from 12° to 30°.
In reality, the accuracy of global VTEC based on real
observations should be worse than those based on simulated
observations. It is because the real ionosphere is more com-
plex than the ionospheric model, and the horizontal gradient
of the real ionosphere varies more sharply than that of the
ionospheric model.
Discussion
In the above research, the MF error has been discussed in
detail, including the relationship between the VTEC accu-
racy variation of almost all continents with the variation of
satellite elevation cutoff angle and the variation of the MF
error with local time. Besides the shell height and infinitely
thin shell thickness in the SLM, in this study, we emphasize
that MF error at sunrise is more significant than that at sun-
set can be drawn, and we will discuss its reason in detail in
this session.
GPS Solutions (2023) 27:6 Page 11 of 13  6
Due to the only consideration of the satellite elevation
cutoff angle, it is based on the assumption of local iono-
sphere spherical symmetry that the STEC is converted to
VTEC by the mapping function. As well known, the hori-
zontal gradient of electron density varies significantly at
sunrise and sunset; therefore, the assumption of ionosphere
local spherical symmetry works poorly during these periods.
Stolle et al. (2011) found the behavior of morning overshoot
of electron temperature using the CHAMP observations, and
the electron density enhances significantly at sunrise. The
CHAMP observations show that the latitudinal shape of the
morning overshoot between 05 and 07 LT does not vary with
season. This research implied that the horizontal gradient
of electron density varies sharply at all seasons of sunrise.
The evening prereversal enhancement (PRE) drift during
post-sunset hours is an important feature in the mid-and low-
latitude ionosphere and can uplift the height of the F region
ionosphere in the equatorial region, which is caused by the
enhanced zonal electric field near the magnetic equator
[Fejer et al. 1995]. The height of ionospheric peak electron
density (hmF2) and F2 layer peak electron density (NmF2)
derived from Constellation Observing System for Mete-
orology, Ionosphere And Climate (COSMIC) ionospheric
radio occultation (IRO) measurements from April 2006 to
December 2011 are given in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, which shows
the mainly diurnal variation of hmF2 and NmF2 in magnetic
latitude and local time coordinates. As shown in Fig. 8, it
can be clearly seen that the hmF2 can uplift in the mid-
and low-latitude during sunset hours, and NmF2 decreases
slowly in the low-latitude at sunset. In addition, the VTEC
map on April 15, 2013, with respect to magnetic latitude and
local time shown in Fig. 10 from CODE presents a similar
characteristic as COSMIC NmF2. It has a long tail of equa-
torial ionization anomaly (EIA) around 1800–2200 local
time. Actually, based on the measurements, no matter for
the NmF2 from IRO or for the global VTEC measurements,
it is also found that the electron density at sunrise varies
sharply in the mid-and low-latitude.
Fig. 8  Distribution of COSMIC peak heights from April 2006 to
December 2011 in magnetic latitude and LT coordinates
Fig. 9  Distribution of COSMIC NmF2 from April 2006 to December
2011 in magnetic latitude and LT coordinates
Therefore, based on the previous research reports and the
IRO and VTEC measurements, an important characteristic
can be drawn, i.e., the horizontal gradient of electron den-
sity varies more sharply at sunrise than that at sunset. That
is why the MF error at sunrise is more significant than at
sunset.
Conclusions
This study presents an approach to evaluate the global
VTEC accuracy based on the simulated carrier phase and
pseudorange observations. The errors of the carrier to code
leveling process, DCB estimation, mapping function and
spherical harmonic coefficient fitting are analyzed quan-
titatively. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal characteristic of
global VTEC accuracy and the effect of solar activity on the
accuracy of VTEC is investigated in detail. Our preliminary
findings and conclusions are: First, the results explicitly sug-
gested that mapping function error at sunrise is more sig-
nificant than that at sunset, and this important characteristic
can be proved based on the previous research reports and the
ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) and VTEC measure-
ments; second, the mapping function is the most significant
Fig. 10  Distribution of the VTEC map on April 15, 2013, in mag-
netic latitude and local time
13
 6  Page 12 of 13
error source in the VTEC processing for regions with dense
and homogeneous distributed GNSS stations, e.g., North
America and Europe. The VTEC accuracy for these regions
can be improved by 100% with the satellite elevation cut-
off angle increasing from 12° to 30°; finally, for the global
VTEC maps modeling techniques based on the SLM and SH
currently, the accuracy is challenging to improve considera-
bly regardless of how sophisticated the algorithm is because
of the scarce observation on the ocean. In addition, it should
be noted that since the SH was originally developed for the
wide area ionospheric model, it can hardly capture the local
ionospheric variations, e.g., TIDs, and such local variations
have not been modeled in the truth. As the behavior of the
ionosphere is rather complicated with both large-scale fea-
tures as well as small-scale random variation, the simulation
and analysis in this mainly reveal the performance of SH
ionospheric modeling during the quiet time.
Acknowledgements  This research was supported by the National Insti-
tute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China
(Grant Number: ZDJ2021-07), and the China Natural Science Funds
(Grant Number: 41874070).
Author contributions  JL conceived and designed the experiments and
drew the first draft; XXL performed the experiments and analyzed data;
SFG., YDL., and YQ. reviewed and revised the manuscript.
Data availability  GPS observation data are available online in ftp://​
cddis.​gsfc.​nasa.​gov/​pub/​gps/​data
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Publisher's Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to
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Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under
a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s);
author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article
is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and
applicable law.
Jian Lin  is a professor at the
National Institute of Natural
Hazards, Ministry of Emergency
Management of China (MEMC).
He received his Ph.D. degree at
Wuhan University in December
2011. His research interests
include radio occultation tech-
nology and its application, iono-
spheric modeling and space
weather.
Xinxing Li  is a research assistant
at the Institute of Seismology,
China Earthquake Administra-
tion. He received his Master's
degree from the Institute of Seis-
mology, China Earthquake
Administration in 2017. His cur-
rent research mainly focuses on
the relationship between iono-
spheric TEC anomaly distur-
bance and strong earthquakes.
Shengfeng Gu  received his Ph.D.
degree from the GNSS Research
Center of Wuhan University in
2013 and is currently an Associ-
ate Professor at GNSS Research
Center, Wuhan University. His
current research mainly focuses
on multi-GNSS data processing,
multi-sensor navigation and real-
time ionospheric modeling.
Yidong Lou  received his Ph.D.
degree from Wuhan University
in 2008 and is a Professor at he
Wuhan University. His research
activity focuses on the theoreti-
cal methods and software of
GNSS real-time high-precision
data processing as well as mete-
orological applications. His
research findings have been suc-
cessfully applied to the major
project” National Beidou
Ground-based Augmentation
System Development and
Construction.”
Qing Yun  is an assistant at the
Institute of Seismology, China
Earthquake Administration. She
received her bachelor's, master
and doctorate degrees at Wuhan
University in 2011, 2013 and
2018, respectively. Currently,
she works on precise orbit deter-
mination of GNSS and low earth
orbit satellites.
13