Geometric Distribution

 It is a special case of the negative binomial

distribution where k = 1 (the number of trials
required for a single success.
 Example: Tossing of a coin until the first head occurs
 Geometric Distribution: If repeated independent trials
can result in a success with probability p, and a
failure with probability q = 1- p, then the probability
distribution of the random variable X, the number of
the trials on which the first success occurs, is
g(x; p) = pqx-1, x = 1, 2, 3, …….
 Geometric Distribution
 The mean and variance of a random variable following
the geometric distribution are
µ = 1/p, σ2 = (1 – p)/p2

 Example: In a certain manufacturing process it is known that, on the

average, 1 in every 100 items is defective. What is the probability that the
fifth item inspected is the first defective item found?f
 Solution: Using the geometric distribution with x = 5 and p = 0.01, we
have
g(5;0.01) = (0.01)(0.99)4 = 0.0096.or oil)
Poisson Distribution
 Poisson experiment: It is an experiment that yields
numerical values of a random variable X, the number
of outcomes occurring during a given time interval or
in a specified region.
 A given time interval: a minute, a week, a month,
or even a year. (Telephone calls per hour, school
days off during the winter)
 A specified region: a line segment, an area, a
volume, or even a piece of material. (The number of
bacteria in a given culture, the number of typing
error per page).
 Poisson Distribution
 Properties of Poisson Process:
1) Poisson process has no memory. (The number of outcomes
occurring in one time or region is independent of the numbers
that occurs in any other disjoint time or region.

2) The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very

short time or small region is proportional to the time length or
region size

3) The probability that more than one outcome will occur in

such a short time interval or fall in such a small region is
negligible.
Poisson Distribution
 Poisson Distribution: The probability distribution of
the Poisson random variable X, representing the
number of outcomes occurring in a given time
interval or specified region denoted by t, is

e  t (  t ) x
p ( x; t )  , x  0,1,2,.........
x!

Where λ is the average number of outcomes per

unit time or region, and e = 2.71828.
 Poisson Distribution

 Table A.2 contains Poisson probability sum

P(r; λt) = Σrx=0 p(x; λt), for λt from 0.1 to 0.18.

 The mean and variance of the Poisson λ distribution

both have the value λt.

 The Poisson as a Limiting Form of the Binomial:

Let X be a binomial random variable with probability
distribution b(x; n, p). When n∞, and p0, and µ = np
remains constant.
b(x; n, p)  p(x; µ)
 Example


e  t ( t ) x e 4 (4) 6
p( x; t )   p(6;4)   0.1042
x! 6!
 Example


e  t ( t ) x e 4 (4) 6
p( x; t )   p(6;4)   0.1042
x! 6!
Table A.2
Table A.2
 Exercise
 An inventory study determines that, on average, demands for a
particular item at a warehouse are made 5 times per day. What is the
probability that on a given day this item is requested
(a) more than 5 times?
(b) not at all?
 Exercise
 An inventory study determines that, on average, demands for a
particular item at a warehouse are made 5 times per day. What is the
probability that on a given day this item is requested
(a) more than 5 times?
(b) not at all?
Table A.2
 Exercise
 On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per
month. What is the probability that for any given month at this
intersection
(a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
(b) less than 3 accidents will occur?
(c) at least 2 accidents will occur?
 Exercise
 On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents per
month. What is the probability that for any given month at this
intersection
(a) exactly 5 accidents will occur?
(b) less than 3 accidents will occur?
(c) at least 2 accidents will occur?