Vote again another day

Ethiopia is entering constitutional limbo

Postponed elections may leave it without a legal government

Even in normal times Ethiopia’s plans to hold national elections in August would have been fraught with
uncertainty. Would they be free and fair? Would they help restore peace to a country riven by ethnic
violence? Now, with the polls postponed indefinitely by covid-19, Ethiopia is approaching a
constitutional crisis.

By law Ethiopia’s parliament will reach the end of its constitutional five-year term on September 30th.
That could leave the country without a legitimate parliament or government. Abiy Ahmed, a young
reformer who took office in 2018 promising democracy after massive protests, says that because of the
exceptional circumstances of the pandemic his government will stay in charge until elections can be held
safely.

The delay has prompted a backlash from opposition leaders. Many of them had suspected long before
the outbreak of covid-19 that Abiy’s Prosperity Party would try to rig or postpone the elections: its
predecessor suppressed the opposition so thoroughly in 2015 that it won 95% of the vote.

The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (tplf), which called the shots in the country for nearly three
decades until it was ousted by Abiy, accused the prime minister of exploiting the pandemic to dismantle
the constitution and lay the groundwork for one-man rule. It said it will press ahead with polls in Tigray,
the region it still controls, in defiance of the federal government. This squabble will further pull at the
seams of a federation that has been badly fraying in recent years.

To avert a showdown the government has asked the Council of Constitutional Inquiry for an opinion on
the postponement. But this is not an independent constitutional court. The council is merely an advisory
body to the upper house of parliament, which is controlled by the ruling party, notes Zemelak Ayele of
Ethiopia’s Centre for Federal Studies.

Although the constitution does not spell out the circumstances under which an election may be
postponed, it still provides a “framework” allowing it , says Adem K Abebe, an expert based in The
Hague. But such legal subtleties may count for little without the support of opposition leaders. To get
this Abiy may have to bargain with them on matters such as the timing of the election, as well as allay
their concerns about its fairness and the independence of state media and the security forces.

Jawar Mohammed, a popular figure among the Oromo ethnic group, wants Abiy to start talks about a
caretaker administration taking charge until elections are held, among other matters. Abiy has met his
opponents once to discuss the constitutional impasse. But he has dismissed calls for an interim
government and warned that “illegal elections” will “harm the country and the people”. There is a risk,
however, that without a compromise his prophecies become self-fulfilling.