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Tier 3 Honing Calculator (Experimental)
Tier 3 Honing Calculator (Experimental)
Tier 3 Honing Calculator (Experimental)
Armor Efficiency
Material Base Expected Enhancment Enhanced
Raw Cost Cost Raw Cost Expected Cost
-7222 Use this table to select how how many of each enhancment m
-4927 the optimal amount you start by increasing the Grace, then B
-7035 special book. Note that this pattern could change depending
y
Expected Gold Expected Cost C
Difference Starting Level Ending Level
-618 Helmet 19 19
-297 Shoulders 17 17
-591 Chest 17 17
-504 Pants 17 17
-504 Gloves 17 17
-4623 Weapon 19 20
-4518 Total 1455.00 1457.50
-4518 Use this table to get an estimate of the cost/materials it will ta
-6494 starting level for each of your peices and then set the ending
-5929 calculator will show all 0's if ending level is lower than starti
-5519 enhancment materials that you selected in the table above u
-19587 Remember that these are the expected (average) costs and us
-18651 above or below these values depending on your luck. This too
-28101 paths from one gear score to another (say
oning Material Source Mark
Honor Shards Honor Leapstones Oreha Fusion Enhancment Materials
0 0 1 1
0 1 0 0
u are getting your materials. The options are the Market, Mari's Secret
oxes). Remember that nothing is actually "free" but calculating your own
e and beyond complicated. If you wanted to test custom prices, whether
et predictions, feel free to not use Market Prices in the table on the right.
12 6 2
24 12 4 0
36 18 6
any of each enhancment material you would like to use. Generally, to find Use this table to
ncreasing the Grace, then Blessing, then Protection, and finally adding a editing the cells
ern could change depending on if Market Prices were skewed by supply. can be anything
got a bound Sp
it could be pro
pected Cost Calculator
Gold Cost Leapstones Guardian Destruction
0 0 0 - Mari's
0 0 0 -
0 0 0 -
0 0 0 -
0 0 0 -
107875 #REF! - #REF!
107875 #REF! 0 #REF!
f the cost/materials it will take you to get from one ilvl to another. Set the
ces and then set the ending level that you want to calculate too (note the
ng level is lower than starting level). The costs are calcuated using the
elected in the table above using the sources set in the table above that.
cted (average) costs and usages, so it is possible for you to be significantly Use this table
nding on your luck. This tool is also epecially useful for calculating optimal conversion rate
gear score to another (say 1370 to 1400, or 1400 to 1415). of the valu
Market Prices
Item Price Gold Per Item
Guardian Stone Crystal 6 0.6
Armor Efficiency
Material Base Expected Enhancment Enhanced
Raw Cost Cost Raw Cost Expected Cost
cy Market 1
0 +12 to +15
0 0 1 0
0 1 0 1
are getting your materials. The options are the Market, Mari's Secret
oxes). Remember that nothing is actually "free" but calculating your own
e and beyond complicated. If you wanted to test custom prices, whether
t predictions, feel free to not use Market Prices in the table on the right.
2 3 1
0
0 0 0
any of each enhancment material you would like to use. Generally, to find
ncreasing the Grace, then Blessing, then Protection, and finally adding a Use this table to
rn could change depending on if Market Prices were skewed by supply. editing the cells
can be anything t
pected Cost Calculator got a bound Spe
Gold Cost Leapstones Guardian Destruction it could be prop
4487 #REF! #REF! -
14020 #REF! #REF! - Mari's S
14020 #REF! #REF! -
14020 #REF! #REF! -
14020 #REF! #REF! -
25199 #REF! - #REF!
85763 #REF! #REF! #REF!
the cost/materials it will take you to get from one ilvl to another. Set the
es and then set the ending level that you want to calculate too (note the
ng level is lower than starting level). The costs are calcuated using the
lected in the table above using the sources set in the table above that.
Market Prices
Item Price Gold Per Item
Guardian Stone Crystal 10 1.0
Honor Leapstone 19
Simple Oreha Fusion 9
Solar Grace 26
Solar Blessing 92
Solar Protection 204
Tailoring: Basic Mending 480
Metallurgy: Basic Welding 765
With that first disclaimer out of the way, I want to take a moment ot talk about pe
people who play to casually. BOTH are valid ways to play the game! Neither way is
helpful for all types of players. If you are hardcore this calculator should help you
you have wisely.
Remember, however you enjoy the game is perfectly fine. If you just want to rand
average that will be less efficient (materials/gold) than if you followed a calculato
Now, I do want to set one thing straight. For T3 honing you need to go in with the m
you may or may not know about the pity system called Artisan's Energy. Generally
succeed your upgrade. I go into greater detail about this system below but for no
In T1 and T2 you may have never failed the upgrade on a single peice 5 times, in T
Statistics" sheet in this document is a bunch of statistics for you to browse and und
Main take-away: You are going to fail upgrades, but so is everyone else. Ya, it mig
upgrade. Item level is just one measure of character power, if you ran out of reso
With all that out of the way, for those interested, I want to outline how the math an
check it against your understanding of honing, but if you have blind faith then hop
Ca
Let's take a brief moment to talk about how we are getting the expected costs fo
that you need to understand to use the calculator. Understanding the first key-ter
upgrade. As expected we start by taking each material and multipling the cost of
"Material Raw Cost" in the main sheet and is properly understood as the price we
The next step is that we need to weight the "Material Raw Cost" because for most
the proper way to weight our cost is to divide by the probability of succeeding (or
That might be a bit confuzing, so let's take a look at a couple simplified examples:
First consider an upgrade that has a "Material Raw Cost" of 1000 gold. For this exa
Therefore our expected cost is 1000 / 1, or just 1000 gold.
Now a slightly more complex example. Lets stick with our 1000 gold "Material Raw C
and be done with the upgrade but this means that 50% of people are going to fail
chance to succeed. For those very unlucy folks who fail that attempt they yet aga
to fail 2 times. This number is just the inverse of our chance to succeed:
50% = 1/2 -> (1/2)^-1 = 2
If we expect to fail two times, then our expect cost should be:
1000 gold per attempt * 2 attempts = 2000 gold
or equivently:
1000 gold per attempt / 50% chance to succeed attempt = 2000 gold.
This calculation is the "Base Expected Cost" fom the main sheet. I will note here tha
but more on that below. First, lets finish this part of the discussion with enhancme
The next key-term to understand is the "Base Enhancment Cost". As its name sugg
by how many you have selected to use.
The "Enhanced Expected Cost" is then the same expected cost calculation as disc
to account for the increase we get for using those enhancment materials. Let's lo
Again, say our item has a 1000 "Material Raw Cost", and we are going to use 1000 go
our added enhancment materials give us an extra 25% chance. So the "
(1000+1000) / (0.5+0.25) = 2667
The last column, "Expected Gold Difference," is just the difference between the "
2000 - 2667 = -667
The negative tells us that on average we would expect to LOSE 667 gold by using
give you a good understanding of what the calculator is telling you. The next coup
Calculating
As mentioned above we are not, and should not be, using the base 60%, 45%, 30%,
section, I am going to explain why we don't use these numbers, and why this make
For a 45% upgrade we should expect to fail 55% of the time, and if we fail, the nex
try to upgrade the chance is higher than 45%. This increase is determined as 10%
original base rate. So as the images on the right show, for our 45% upgrade, we fa
next one is 49.5%. If we failed again our success chance woud increase to 54%.
This increase has a cap, as noted by the yellow text in the center image.
However, until you get to your +15 upgrades this cap does not matter because of
"pity-system" known as Artisan's Energy, which I will hash out in the next section.
So hopefully it is now clear why the percentage we use to calculate the expected
not the flat 45%. On average, we should expect to fail a couple times and we need
account for this increase in rate on subsiquent attempts.
Now we have two choices, we can either solve the problem analytically with a clos
solution, or we can do Monte Carlo simulations to approximate the perentages. O
simulation is a necessity, either due to a complex problem or a lack of understand
certian elements. As such that was the first way I tackled the problem, and previo
iterations of this spreadsheet did in fact use the simulated percentages as the re
As such I decided to take a deeper look at the analytical solution, and after some
information that we need to fully describe the honing system, but first I just want t
simulatons, it is impossible to get a perfectly correct percentage for each upgrad
we have the analytical solutions I did a quick comparison and on average the simu
material combinations was 0.185%. Considering the scale of numbers we are worki
fact accurate enough, and if you used the version of this spreadsheet based on th
Cal
To get our analytical solution we must include artisan's energy, which is probably t
formula for artisans energy. The first thing to point out is hopefully something you
If we are lucky, and spoilers it appears as if we are, then we would hope that artis
To figure out this relationship I started recording the Artisan's Energy for differen
way T3 honing works we can get alot of data points by just incrimenting each of th
in the images on the right. To make sure that any potential formula is independen
include values for those scenarios as well. With a list of success chances and core
perform a linear regression to get the constants. I won't explain linear regression
data, plots, and calculations. Now, becuase of rounding on the in-game UI, our form
the one actually written in Smilegate's code. However, if you are familiar with linea
regression is 0.99999997 (like I hinted at before, we got lucky that the system was
Af
I mentioned above that rounding for the in-game UI can cause a couple issues. I ju
issue that I noted and included in the solution. This comes up with the enhancment
rounding, there are occassionally times where the percentage you should get fro
actually the percentage you get. This is because you are only allowed to get up to
images on the right show this. When we apply the second Solar Blessing we are su
we do, we only get 4.9% because we hit the 30% bonus rate cap.
For the very late upgrades (+18, +20) on the 1340 gear set this rounding error appe
maximum amount of enhancment materials dynamically (e.g. in theory you can use
6 Protections; but in practice if you select to use 36 Grace and 18 Blessings it would
For simplicity I still do the calculation for the "impossible" scenario where you use 3
but due to the check that we implimented above this combination does not actual
36,18,5 but would yield a higher cost than it, so you would see that it is not proffitab
If you have made it this far, kudos, and hopefully everything is coherent so far. Lu
For this example we will use the +6 to +7 upgrade as it is the most simple, and sho
so our first attempt has a 60% (base rate) of succeeding. So far 0% have succeded
to say:
As expected the number is smaller than the first because more than 50% of the p
Now to this point I have ignored Artisan's Energy, but at each step we are calculat
For this +6 to +7 upgrade after the 4th attempt we have hit 100% Artisan's Energy
on the 5th attempt. At this point the only thing left to do is calculate the mean by m
So we are done, the problem is solved analytically and all we have to do is run this
python script which can be found below (and is much simpler than the old simulatio
thing you have to edit in this code if you wanted to run it for yourself is the rates
like to solve). The results of running this for all the gear upgrades currentally in th
nd a General Note (Please Read at Least th
This spreadsheet is experimental, use it at your own risk.
u find any errors in the calculations please reach out to me (Chaliia) on Mattjestic's discord
Also, please ignore spelling/grammer mistakes, it is not my strength :)
ent ot talk about perceptions and play-styles. Lost Ark is a video game, there are people w
game! Neither way is better than the other, and I am not here to tell you how to play the ga
ator should help you min/max all of yor resources. If you are casual, hopefully this calculato
ou just want to randomly use upgrade materials because you have a "good feeling," go for
followed a calculator like this, but again that's fine if it's how you enjoy the game!
ed to go in with the mindset that you are going to fail, and you are going to fail alot. Depen
n's Energy. Generally, this system is in place to ensure that after a certian number of attem
em below but for now lets completly over-simplify it and say: this system is fail 5 times and
e peice 5 times, in T3 I can almost guanrentee that you will (multiple times in fact). For thos
u to browse and understand just how many times the average person is going to fail upgr
yone else. Ya, it might not feel great when you see the failure screen, but it's going to feel
you ran out of resources for upgrading go get some skill points or engraving books.
line how the math and simulations in this spreadsheet work. I would reccomend that every
blind faith then hop on over to the T3 Honing Calculator sheet and get started.
t" because for most upgrades we should not expect to succeed on the first attempt. Disre
ty of succeeding (or equiveltly, multiply by how many times we would have to try before ex
simplified examples:
00 gold. For this example, let's also say that there is a 100% chance to succed on this upgra
gold "Material Raw Cost", but now lets say our chance to succeed is only 50%. On the first
ple are going to fail. Those people now have to try again, having to spend another 1000g, t
ttempt they yet again have to spend 1000 gold, so on and so forth. For this simplified exam
o succeed:
0 gold.
et. I will note here that the percentages we are dividing by are NOT the basic 60%, 45%, 30
sion with enhancment materials.
st". As its name suggests, the "Base Enhancment Cost" is calculated by multiplying the cost
t calculation as discussed above, but we add the cost of the enhancment materials and up
nt materials. Let's look at another example:
going to use 1000 gold worth of enhancment materials ("Base Enhancment Cost
e. So the "Enhanced Expected Cost" is:
nce between the "Base Expected Cost" and the "Enhanced Expected Cost". For our previou
SE 667 gold by using the 1000 gold worth of enhancment materials. This concludes the basic
g you. The next couple sections are going to dive into more detail on a couple of behind th
ter image.
matter because of the
n the next section.
ion, and after some tinkering was able to figure it out. In the next couple sections I will lay
but first I just want to assuage any concerns early adopters of this sheet may have. Witho
age for each upgrade, however by running millions we attempted to get close enough for a
on average the simulation gave percentages that were off by 0.012%. The maximum differe
mbers we are working with this less than a single guardian stone, or a tenth of a leapstone
adsheet based on those simulations you were not being misled.
ce of upgrading
0.6
nger need to attempt another time. So we do the same culculation again, but now update
d to upgrade. Also for those 40% of people they now have a 66% chance of upgrading on t
ce of upgrading
0.66
e than 50% of the people succeeded on the first attempt. Now we just iterate this process
ce of upgrading
0.72
ce of upgrading
0.78
step we are calculating the Artisan's Energy for that % chance of succeeding the upgrade
0% Artisan's Energy so the remaining 0.83776% of people who have failed the first 4 attem
culate the mean by multiplying the number of attempts by the % of upgrades on that attem
This is our expected number of attempts.
This is the inverse of the above number, our adjusted success chance.
have to do is run this iterative process for every possible enhancment material combinatio
han the old simulation code). There are comments throughout for you to follow if you are i
ourself is the rates at the top (which as noted in sections above change depending what g
des currentally in the game can be found in the "Adjusted Rates" sheet.
at Least this Section)
k.
Mattjestic's discord.
rength :)
s
ll be guided by the key-terms (highlighted in Blue)
calculate the cost that we expect to spend on each
This calculation is refered to as the
e.
ost". For our previous examples this would come out to:
centages
ess rate to determine our expected costs. In this
way to start is to jump into an example:
le sections I will lay out a couple more pieces of
eet may have. Without running an infinite number of
t close enough for all practical situations. Now that
The maximum difference for any of the enhancment
tenth of a leapstone. So our simulations were in
gy
s section I will lay out how I went about finding a
ed increases so too does the artisan's energy.
percentage chance of success.
g
ether. It's not hard, so lets jump right into an example.
ssume that we are not using enhancment materials
grades that still need to happen. So the first step is
Overal
Here are some overall statistics from the individual base rate analyses you will fin
upgrade rates (no enhancement materials). So the appropriate way to interpret th
starting at +6 and ending at +15 never using any enhancment materials. I have laye
and the most unlucky player's experience. As should be obvious, neither extreme
To dive a little bit more into details we can sample the below distributions and (du
This allows us to get a couple more interesting statistics, and give you a way to ju
mean of 146, and a standard deviation of 19. According to this, 95% of players will f
Ho
Therefore, you were mo
Here are the statistics for upgrading from +6 to +7 if you do not use any enhancm
The base success rate is 60% and the adjusted success rate is
Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is
Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade
This number highlighted in green is the percentage of people hitting the pity-syste
The way to understand the cumulative percent is "by this number of attempts cum
people have achived their upgrade"
Here are the statistics for upgrading from +7 to +8 if you do not use any enhancm
The base success rate is 45% and the adjusted success rate is
Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is
Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade
From
Here are the statistics for upgrading from +8 to +9 if you do not use any enhancm
These are the same rates as going to +10 and +11 as well.
The base success rate is 30% and the adjusted success rate is
Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is
Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade
An interesting note here. The +9 upgrade is the first place we see the pity system
two previous upgrades they have been a smooth falloff untill the pity system kicks
upgrade the pity system is kicking in a bit earlier, and saving approximatly 2-3% o
do 8th, or 9th attempts.
From
Here are the statistics for upgrading from +11 to +12 if you do not use any enhancm
These are the same rates as going to +13 and +14 as well.
The base success rate is 15% and the adjusted success rate is
Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is
Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade
Hopefully you are 1) realizing that failure is the norm and 2) that 8% of us should be
the pity-system.
T
Here are the statistics for upgrading from +14 to +15 if you do not use any enhancm
The base success rate is 10% and the adjusted success rate is
Which means the average number of attempts to succeed is
Which means on average we should expect to fail the upgrade
to +7 8 9 10 11 12
0.84% 2.0% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 8.5%
specially considering that you have to do 6 of each upgrade. In fact the probability that yo
iencing the pity-system a couple times if you don't use rate-up materials.
distributions and (due to the Centeral Limit Theorem) get a normal distribution for the num
give you a way to judge how lucky/un-lucky you were once you reach 1370. The normal dist
95% of players will fail between 108 and 183 failures.
How many times did you fail on your path to 1370: 131
refore, you were more lucky than 77.64% of players, and less lucky than 22.36% of players
From +6 to +7
ot use any enhancment materials. 6
63.19%
1.58 5
Percentage that
0.58 times
4
Succeed
umulative Percent
60.0%
3
86.4%
96.2%
99.2% 2
100.0%
1
hitting the pity-system.
0
ber of attempts cumulative percent of
From +7 to +8
ot use any enhancment materials.
49.31%
2.03
1.03 times
umulative Percent
45.0%
72.2%
87.2%
94.7%
98.0%
100.0%
5
umulative Percent
30.0% 4
53.1%
70.0%
3
81.7%
89.4%
94.2% 2
100.0%
1
see the pity system kicking in. If you look at the
the pity system kicks in. However, for this 0
1 2
approximatly 2-3% of people from having to
H
20.61%
tage that Succeed
4.85 10
3.85 times
umulative Percent 8
15.0%
29.0%
6
4
Percentage that Succ
8
41.8% 6
53.1%
63.0%
71.3%
78.2% 4
83.8%
88.1%
91.5% 2
100.0%
Hon
The Dreaded +14 to +15
not use any enhancment materials.
16
15.06%
6.64 14
5.64 times
Percentage that Succeed
umulative Percent 12
10.0%
19.9%
29.5% 10
38.7%
47.3%
55.2% 8
62.3%
68.7%
6
74.4%
79.2%
83.4% 4
86.7%
89.4%
91.5% 2
100.0%
Honing
0
Honing
nergy
ent materials. This first section is listing the
13 14 15
8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
rades
sed on only the simulations done using the base
hat I expect to happen if I upgraded all my gear
ayer's experience, the average player's experience,
:)
5
Percentage that
4
Succeed
0
1 2 3 4 5
6
Percentage that
5
Succeed
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
+14)
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11