BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

Chapter 3 Discrete Random Variables

Random Variable and Probability Distribution
A random variable, say X, is a variable whose value is determined by the outcome
of a random experiments. It can be categorized into :
 Discrete random variable – A random variable that assume countable values.
E.g. : number of cars sold, number of complaints received, number of shoses
pairs a person own.
 Continuous random variable – A random variable that can assume any value
contained in one or more intervals. E.g. : height of a person, time taken to
complete an examination, weight of a baby.

Discrete Random Variable

Let X have the following properties:
a) it is a discrete variable,
b) it can only assume values x1, x2, …, xn,
c) the probabilities associated with these values are p1, p2, …, pn, where
P(X=x1) = p1
P(X=x2) = p2
:
P(X=xn) = pn
then X is a discrete random variable if p1 + p2 + ... + pn = 1

 P( X  x) = 1
n

p i
i = 1, i = 1, 2, ..., n or
allx

Example 3.1

Tossing a die:

______________________________________________________________________________________
1
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

Discrete Probability Distribution

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable lists all the possible
values that the random variable can assume and their corresponding probabilities.

Theorem :
A function f(x) is a probability distribution function (pdf) for the discrete
random variable X if, for each possible outcome xi :
1. 0< f(xi) < 1.
2.  f(xi) = 1.

Theorem :
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) F(x) of a discrete random
variable X with probability density function f(x) is defined by
t
1. F(t) = P(X < t) =  P ( X  x)
x  x1
t  x1 , x 2 ,...., x n
 Note2.: f Capital
( xi )  F (letters, x 1 ) as X, Y, Z, … will be used to denote random
xi )  F (such
variables. The lower casei letters x, y, z, … will be used to denote possible
values that the corresponding random variables can attain.

Definition of expected value

The mean,  (or expected value) of a discrete random variable X, is equal to the sum of
the products of each value of x and the corresponding P(x)
  E( X )   xP( x)

Definition of variance

The variance,  2 of a discrete random variable X is equal to the sum of the products of
(x-  )2 and the corresponding value of P(x) :
 2   ( x   ) 2 P( x)   x 2 P( x)   2  E( X 2 )  ( E( X )) 2

where E( X 2 )   x 2 P( x) and E( X )     xP( x)

Definition of standard deviation

The standard deviation  , of a random variable X is equal to the positive square root of
the variance.

______________________________________________________________________________________
2
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

Example 3.2

______________________________________________________________________________________
3
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

3.2

______________________________________________________________________________________
4
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

______________________________________________________________________________________
5
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

______________________________________________________________________________________
6
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

Binomial Distribution
Binomial distribution is a commonly used discrete probability distribution
since many statistical problems are deal with the situations referred to as repeated
trial. For example, we may want to know the probability that 9 of 10 VCRs will
run at least 1,000 hours or the probability that 45 out of 300 drivers stopped at a
road block will be wearing seatbelts. Those experiment that possess the following
properties are called binomial experiment :

1. The experiment must have a fixed number of trials

2. There are only two possible outcomes for each trial
3. The trails must be independent
4. The probability must remain constant for each trial.

Let S and F (success and failure) denote the two possible categories of all
outcomes. Then
P(S) = p
P(F) = 1- p = q

The probability distribution of the Binomial random variable X,

representing the number of successes in n trials is given by the formula:

n n!
b(x; n, p) = f(x) = P(X=x) =   p x q n  x  p x q n  x x = 0, 1, 2,…, n
 
x ( n  x )! x!
x
B(x; n, p) = F(x) = P(X  x) =  b(k ; n, p)
k 0
x = 0, 1, 2,…, n

Mean :  = n.p
Variance
where :
n = number oftrails
2 = n. p.q

x = number of success among n trails

p = probability of success in any one trail
q = probability of failure in any one trail.
P(X=x) = f(x) = probability of getting exact x success among the n trails.

 Note :
(i) A short notation to designate that X has the binomial distribution with
parameter n and p is
X ~ BIN (n, p)
______________________________________________________________________________________
7
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

 Example 3.3 :
Find the probability of getting 3 left-handed students in a class of 15
students, given that 10% of us are left-handed.

Solution :
Given p = 0.1 q = 0.9 n = 15 x=3

15 
P(X=3) = f(3) = b(3, 15, 0.1) =  0.13 (0.9) 153  0.129
3

The probability that exactly 3 of the 15 students are left-handed is 0.129.

Example 3.4
The National Television Violence Study claims that 6 out of 10 shows contain violent
acts. Assume that this result is true for the current population of all such television shows.
a) Using the binomial formula, find the probability that in a random sample of 10
such shows, the number that contain violent acts is
i) exactly 4
ii) exactly 10
b) Find the mean.
c) Find the standard deviation.

Solution
We know that n=10 , p = 0.6 , q= 0.4
a.i) P(x=4)
10C4  (0.6)4  (0.4)10 4

= 0.1115

a.ii) P(x=10)
 10 C 0  (0.4) 0  (0.6) 10 0

= 0.0060

c)   np d)   npq
=10 x 0.6 = 10 x 0.6 x 0.4
=6 = 2.4

This means if we take many samples of 10 shows, we expect that each sample will
contain an average of 6 shows with a standard deviation of 2.4 which would contain
violent acts.

______________________________________________________________________________________
8
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that applies to
occurrences of some event over a specific interval. The random variable X is the
number of occurrences of the event in an interval. The interval can be time,
distance, area, volume, or some similar unit. Those experiment that possess the
following properties are called Poisson experiment :

1. The occurrences must be random.

2. The occurrences must be independent from one interval to another.
3. The occurrence must be uniformly distributed over the interval being used.

The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing

the number of outcomes occurring over an interval is given by the formula:

e   x
f(x;  ) = x = 0, 1, 2, … and  0
x!

Mean :  
Variance : 2 = 

 Note :
A short notation to designate that X has the poisson distribution with
parameter  is
X ~ POI ()

______________________________________________________________________________________
9
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

 Example 3.5 :
The mean number of bacteria per mililiter of a liquid is known to be 4.
Assuming that the number of bacteria follows a poisson distribution, find
the probability that
(a) In 1 ml of liquid, there will be 4 bacteria.
(b) In 3 ml of liquid, there will be less than 2 bacteria.
(c) In 1 2 ml of liquid, there will be more than 2 bacteria.
Solution :
X ~ POI (4)

e 4 ( 4 ) 4
(a) P(X = 4) =  0.1954
4!

(b) In 1 ml of liquid, “expect” to have 4 bacteria.

In 3 ml of liquid, “expect” to have 3x4=12 bacteria.
Y ~ POI (12)
12 12 0 12 1  5
P(X < 2) = P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) = e     7.99 x10
 0! 1! 

(c) In 1 ml of liquid, “expect” to have 4 bacteria.

In 1 2 ml of liquid, “expect” to have 1 2 x4=2 bacteria.
Z ~ POI (2)
P(Z > 2) = 1-P(Z  2) = 1 – [P(Z=0) + P(Z=1) + P(Z=2)]
 2 0 21 2 2 
= 1 - e 2    
 0! 1! 2! 
= 0.3233

______________________________________________________________________________________
10
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

Example 3.6
On average, 20 households in 50 own answering machines.

a) Using the Poisson formula, find the probability that in a random sample of 50
households, exactly 25 will own answering machines.
b) Using the Poisson probabilities table, find the probability that the number of
households in 50 who own answering machines is
i) at most 12
ii) 13 to 17
iii) at least 30
c) Find the mean.
d) Find the standard deviation.

Solution
Let x be the household who own the answering machines ,    =20 ,
x e  
Poisson formula =
x!

( 20 ) 25 e 20
a) P( x = 25 ) =
25!

=0.0446

b.i) P( x  12 ) = 0.0390

b.ii) P( 13  x  17) = P( x  17 ) – P( x  12 )

= 0.2970 – 0.0390 = 0.2580

b.iii) P( x  30) = 1 – P( x  29)

= 1 – 0.9782 = 0.0218

c)     20 d)     20 = 4.5

______________________________________________________________________________________
11
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

N, k n, x

______________________________________________________________________________________
12
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

N, k n, x

______________________________________________________________________________________
13
BITI2233 Statistics And Probability

N, k n, x

______________________________________________________________________________________
14