APES Liceo Campoverde

JO 2022-2023

El Niño Southern Oscillation

(ENSO)

EL NIÑO & LA NIÑA

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

Launching pad - try to answer some of these questions with what you
know before we start. No Googling! Table groups.

ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation

1. What does “Oscillation” mean?
2. Why El Niño (and La Niña)? Strange names!
3. Where does the ENSO occur?
4. Any ideas what happens in an El Niño event?
5. How might we know if we are in an El Niño or a La Niña event? In Quito? On the
coast?
6. Are we in an ENSO event at present? Which?

ENGAGE!
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

THE EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a
recurring climate pattern involving changes in the
temperature of waters in the central and eastern
tropical Pacific Ocean. During periods ranging from
about three to seven years, the surface waters
across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean
warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared
to ‘normal’.
This oscillating warming and cooling pattern,
referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects
rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a
strong influence on weather around the whole world.
El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the
ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third
phase called ENSO-neutral.
APES Liceo Campoverde

SUMMARY EL NINO, LA NIÑA & NORMAL

JO 2022-2023

● ENSO-Neutral: In between the oscillations - neither El Niño nor

La Niña. Tropical trade winds blow from East to West. Build-up of
warm water over the western Pacific leaving colder water along the
central and South American coastlines. Rainfall over western and
dry air over the eastern Pacific. Pacific sea surface temperatures
(SST’s) are close to average. Upwelling along the American
coastline.
● El Niño: The tropical trade winds, which normally blow from east
to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or
reverse direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”). A
warming of the ocean surface or above-average SST in the central
and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Rainfall reduces over the
western Pacific and increases over the central and eastern
tropical Pacific Ocean. Upwelling along eastern coastlines stops.
The warmer the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger El Niño.
● La Niña: The ‘normal’ easterly winds along the equator become
even stronger leading to a cooling of the ocean surface, or
below-average SST’s in the central and eastern tropical Pacific
Ocean. Over the western Pacific rainfall increases while rainfall
decreases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In
general, the cooler the ocean temperature anomalies, the stronger
the La Niña.
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

SHORT INTRODUCTORY VIDEO - ENSO

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

FISH TANK MODEL - WILL IT WORK?

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

‘Normal’ conditions are:

•high pressure exists in the
eastern Pacific, low pressure

‘NORMAL’ - ENSO-NEUTRAL
in the western Pacific
•surface trade winds blow
east to west across the
Pacific Ocean, with
compensatory upper atmosphere
westerly winds (the Walker
Circulation)
•these push warm water across
the sea surface from east to
west
•upwelling of cold water
takes place off the eastern
Pacific coasts
•dry weather in eastern
Pacific; rain in western
Pacific.
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

‘NORMAL’ - ENSO-NEUTRAL
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023
Use arrows, colours, shapes, labels - whatever you like - to show ENSO-Neutral conditions:

‘NORMAL’ - ENSO-NEUTRAL. MAP IT!

● Trade winds
● Zone of warm water
● Zone of colder water
● Higher water levels
● Zone of rainfall
● Zone of arid conditions
● Where upwelling occurs
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

In an El Niño:
• the trade winds become weaker,
and may even reverse
• low pressure develops over the
eastern Pacific, with high pressure
to the west
• warm water replaces cold water

EL NIÑO
along the eastern Pacific coastline
• waters in the western Pacific
become cooler
• rainfall totals in the western
Pacific reduce, and the dry
conditions often spread to India
and southeast Asia
• rain falls along the eastern
Pacific coastline of South &
Central America and further north.
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

EL NIÑO
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

Use arrows, colours, shapes, labels - whatever you like - to show El Niño conditions:
● Trade winds
● Zone of warm water
● Zone of colder water
● Higher water levels
● Zone of rainfall
● Zone of arid conditions
● Where upwelling occurs

EL NIÑO. MAP IT!

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

In South America, there are a variety of impacts:

• an increased possibility of flooding on the western

IMPACTS OF AN EL NIÑO
coast of northern South America

• drier conditions east of the Andes, in Amazonia

• wetter conditions in southern Brazil and northern

Argentina

In Australia and the western Pacific basin:

• weaker monsoons across much of Asia

• reduction in number and intensity of tropical storms

• an increase in wildfires with the drier conditions

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

La Niña
La Niña events act independently – they are not associated with
El Nino events. You can think of a La Niña as an ENSO neutral
which has gone too far!
• they involve the build-up of cooler-than-usual subsurface
water in the eastern Pacific Ocean
•very warm waters build up in the western Pacific
•they create severe drought conditions in the eastern Pacific

LA NIÑA
coastlands/western and southern South America
•very wet weather can be experienced in the western Pacific
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

LA NIÑA
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

Use arrows, colours, shapes, labels - whatever you like - to show La Niña conditions:
● Trade winds
● Zone of warm water
● Zone of colder water
● Higher water levels
● Zone of rainfall
● Zone of arid conditions
● Where upwelling occurs

LA NIÑA. MAP IT!

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

GLOBAL RAINFALL DURING A LA NIÑA

APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

A variety of global phenomena have been linked to

La Niña events:

IMPACTS OF A LA NIÑA
• flooding in Queensland, Australia in 2010/11 –
more than 80 people were killed

• heavy snowstorms in northern USA/southern Canada

in 2010

• strong tornadoes in the southern USA in 2011

• increases in transmissible diseases in wetter

areas, e.g. malaria in southeast Asia and
Australian encephalitis (or Murray Valley
encephalitis), in southeast Australia
 ENSO - EXAMPLE OF POSITIVE FEEDBACK
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

ENSO is a “coupled” phenomenon:

The atmosphere drives the ocean and the ocean

drives the atmosphere.
“Positive Feedback” between ocean and
atmosphere.
Example:
Weaker equatorial trade winds cold water
upwelling in the east will decrease surface
warming of the ocean reduced east-west
temperature gradient Weaker equatorial trade
winds
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

•Irregular cycle with alternating

periods of warm (El Niño) and cold (La

EVOLUTION OF ENSO CYCLES

Niña) conditions
•El Niño tends to occur every 3-4
years and generally lasts 12-18 months
•Strongest El Niño episodes occur
every 10-15 years
•La Niña episodes may last from 1 to 3
years
•Transitions from El Niño to La Niña
are more rapid than transitions from
La Niña to El Niño.
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

Managing the impacts of these events is difficult

MANAGING EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA

because:

• they cannot be predicted with accuracy

• they affect large parts of the globe, not just the

Pacific

• some of the countries affected do not have the

resources to cope

• there are indirect impacts on other parts of the

world through trade and aid

However, increasing awareness and research should make

it possible to anticipate the impacts and enable
decision-making to reduce any negative impacts or take
advantage of positive impacts.
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

Managing the impacts of these events is difficult

MANAGING EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA

because:

• they cannot be predicted with accuracy

• they affect large parts of the globe, not just the

Pacific

• some of the countries affected do not have the

resources to cope

• there are indirect impacts on other parts of the

world through trade and aid

However, increasing awareness and research should make

it possible to anticipate the impacts and enable
decision-making to reduce any negative impacts or take
advantage of positive impacts.
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

LINKS

El Niño / La Niña today regular updates

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/status

NOAA National Weather Service Updates:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#history

Clear, concise, perhaps laboured YouTube video explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVCviVp4rLU

4.9 El Niño La Niña for APES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Am3LAfIIm7M

Very good description of ENSO from climate.gov:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/rise-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3
%B1a

Teaching resources, data sets and analysis questions from NOAA:

https://dataintheclassroom.noaa.gov/content/el-nino
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
13 October 2022
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February)
2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during
September [Fig. 1]. Most of the Niño indices decreased during the past month, with the latest weekly index values spanning
-0.8°C to -1.6°C [Fig. 2]. For the last couple of months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies remained mostly
unchanged [Fig. 3], reflecting the persistence of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4].
Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Convection was suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall,
the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere
winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus for this month
favors a slightly later transition to ENSO-neutral, during February-April 2023, which is consistent with the latest North
American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). However, predicting the timing of transitions is challenging, and there continues to
be uncertainty over how long La Niña may last. In summary, there is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern
Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National
Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate
Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis
are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is
scheduled for 10 November 2022.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_ev
olution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
APES Liceo Campoverde
JO 2022-2023

WMO predicts first “triple-dip” La Niña of the century (https://reliefweb.int/report/world/el-ninola-nina-update-august-2022)

Geneva, 31 August 2022 – It is likely that the protracted La Niña event will last until at least the end of the year, becoming this century’s first “triple-dip“ La Niña,
spanning three consecutive northern hemisphere winters (southern hemisphere summers), according to a new Update from the World Meteorological
Organization.

The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update predicts the continuation of the current La Niña over the next six months, with a 70% chance in September-November 2022
but gradually decreasing to 55% in December-February 2022/2023. It started in September 2020.

La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific have strengthened as trade winds intensified during mid-July to mid-August 2022, affecting temperature and
precipitation patterns and exacerbating drought and flooding in different parts of the world.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the
tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite impacts on weather and climate as El Niño, which is the warm
phase of the so-called El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

However, all naturally occurring climate events now take place in the context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures,
exacerbating extreme weather and climate, and impacting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.

“It is exceptional to have three consecutive years with a la Niña event. Its cooling influence is temporarily slowing the rise in global temperatures – but it will
not halt or reverse the long-term warming trend,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“The worsening drought in the Horn of Africa and southern South America bear the hallmarks of La Niña, as does the above average rainfall in South-East Asia
and Australasia. The new La Niña Update unfortunately confirms regional climate projections that the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa will worsen and
affect millions of people.”

“WMO will continue to provide tailored information to the humanitarian sector and to support sensitive sectors like agriculture, food security, health and
disaster risk reduction. WMO is also striving towards the goal that everyone should have access to early warning systems in the next five years to protect them
against hazards related to our weather, climate and water,” said Prof. Taalas.