GREEN

HYDROGEN
ECONOMY
Strategy 2030

Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Director, Research Strategy and Innovations
 GREEN HYDROGEN Strategy 2030

• Imperatives of green hydrogen in the context of 2030

(Paris Agreement and SDG 13 & NDC)
• Current status and potential green hydrogen use in
industry, transport, and power sector
• Hydrogen supply & demand potentials; volume
strategies
• Barriers and mid-term challenges to the uptake of
green hydrogen: technological; institutional; financial
 Country Target year
Australia 2050 In Law
GREEN Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia*
-
-
In Policy Document
Declaration/ Pledge
HYDROGEN China
India
2060 Proposed/ In Discussion
2070
Indonesia 2060
Japan 2050
Korea, Rep. 2050
Lao PDR 2050
• Imperatives of green hydrogen in Malaysia 2050
the context of 2030 (Paris Myanmar 2050
Agreement and SDG 13); New Zealand 2050
Philippines -
• NDCs/Net Zero Economy Targets;
Singapore -
Thailand 2050
Vietnam 2050
 Energy Ambitions and Climate Targets Trade Off

Hydrogen can be In order to achieve the net-zero

The Paris Agreement
requires net zero used as a fuel, an emissions targets, countries have
emissions by 2050 to energy carrier, or begun to incorporate hydrogen
keep the world a feedstock, and it into their long-term energy
temperature at 1.5°C has the potential to strategy in order to decarbonize
above pre-industrial their economy. By the end of
cut emissions in 2021, around 17 governments
levels. Innovation will hard-to-abate
be a crucial driver in have hydrogen plans, and more
sectors, such as than 20 governments have
the fight against
climate change—the industry and publicly indicated that they are
production of Green transportation working on building one. This is a
Hydrogen will reduce (incl. shipping, considerable increase from the
CO2 emissions by aviation). three countries (Japan, France,
applying Korea) that had hydrogen
environmentally strategies in 2019. (IEA, 2021b).
responsible methods
of creating hydrogen.
 Categories of Hydrogen
Gray Brown Black Blue Green

Almost completely Made from Produce through

supplied by fossil fuels
and used mostly used in
oil refining and fertilizer
production.
natural gas but electrolysis and
electricity from wind ,
its production
solar and hydro
involves the power.
carbon capture.
Hydrogen colour coding for various manufacturing processes (Osman et al, 2021, Springer)
 Hydrogen demand has grown strongly since 2000,
particularly in refining and industry ❏ In 2020, the world's need for hydrogen was
about 90 Mt H2. This was a 50% increase
since the turn of the century.This demand is
almost entirely driven by refining and
industrial applications (IEA, 2021).

❏ In industry, feedstock demand is larger

(around 50 Mt H2). Three-quarters of 45 Mt
H2 consumption is for ammonia and one-
quarter for methanol. 5 Mt H2 is used in
the DRI (direct reduced iron) steelmaking
process. This allocation has been largely
stable since 2000, except for DRI production
(IEA, 2021).

❏ Although the adoption of hydrogen for new

applications has been placed, in transport,
annual hydrogen demand is less than 20 kt
H2 – just 0.02% of total hydrogen demand
(IEA, 2021).
“Others” refers to small volumes of demand in industrial applications, transport, grid
injection and electricity generation.

Hydrogen demand by sector, 2000-2020 (IEA,

2021)
 Industry
Hydrogen generation accounts for
6% of total industry energy
demand- as a feedstock for
chemical production and as a
reducing agent in iron and steel
manufacture.
Hydrogen demand in industry, 2020
Transport
Annual fuel cell production capacity
doubled from 2019 to 2020, yet FCEV
deployment was 20% lower than in
2019 - significantly below the annual
average needed to meet the aim.
FCEV stock in the Announced Pledges and NZE
scenarios in 2030 vs current and announced
cumulative fuel cell manufacturing capacity and FCEV
deployment targets
Power Sector
Hydrogen power generation contributes
for less than 0.2% of the electricity
supply, largely from the steel sector,
petrochemical facilities, and refineries,
and from chlorine-alkali industrial
byproduct pure hydrogen.
Hydrogen- and ammonia-fired electricity
generation capacity
 Government commitments indicate an increase in
hydrogen use, but not nearly enough to achieve net
zero energy system emissions by 2050

Hydrogen demand by sectors in Announced Pledges Scenario and Net Zero Emissions 2020-
2050 (IEA, 2021)
 The next decade will be crucial for establishing the role of hydrogen in the clean
energy transition, and hydrogen-based fuel use must expand to meet
ambitious climate and energy goals
❏ In the Net zero Emissions Scenario,
hydrogen consumption sixfolds to 530 Mt
H2 by 2050, with half in industry and
transport (IEA, 2021).
❏ The industry demand 50 Mt H2 in 2020
and 140 Mt H2 in 2050 (IEA, 2021).
❏ Transport demand rises from less than
20 kt H2 to over 100 Mt H2 in 2050 due
to small hydrogen participation in various
segments (IEA, 2021).
❏ Power sector penetration also increases
significantly as hydrogen’s
use in gas‐fired power plants and
stationary fuel cells helps to
balance increasing generation from
renewables; integrate
larger shares of solar PV & wind; provide
seasonal energy storage. Gas turbine
manufacturers are confident they can
provide gas turbines that run on pure
hydrogen by 2030 (IEA, 2021).

Hydrogen demand in the Projects case, Announced Pledges and Net zero Emissions scenarios, 2030 (IEA, 2021)
 Total primary energy
Green Scenario Gray Scenario Red Scenario

● Green Scenario is a clean-electricity and green-hydrogen net-zero BloombergNEF, 2021

pathway.
● Gray Scenario is a clean-electricity and carbon-capture-and-storage (CCS)
net-zero pathway.
● Red Scenario is a clean-electricity and nuclear net-zero pathway.
 Global Outlook; Renewable and Low Carbon H2

2/3rd Green H2
1/3rd Blue H2

2,900 GW
Elctrolyzers SMR
2.5X current world Wind & -1.2 Gt CCS
Solar Capacities

11600 TWh electricity from 600 Bcm

H2 Gas for H2

China +EU29 Current .2 x current China &

Power Demand India demand

17% of world power in 2050 17% of world natural gas in 2050

Fig 1. Hydrogen production routes (Osman et al, 2021, Springer)
 Current Status of Large Scale Hydrogen Supply Chains
Green Hydrogen (Green H2 to grow from MW to GW):

• Liquified H2 chain is yet to be developed

Liquification LH2 storge Shipping

Gasification
• NH3chain is available , except cracking which needs scale up

NH3Hydrogen
Blue Synthesis (No upscaling
NH3 Storage Shipping
Issue. CCS availability) Cracking

• Synthetic methane chain is available, except mechanization and maritime transport

of CO2 which need scale up

• Compressed H2 Chain (Pipeline or Compressed H2 ships ) competitive for short

distances only
Hydrogen-Producing Potential from Unused Energies (million normal cubic metres

❏ The hydrogen production potential

from unused energies is negligible
compared to the potential
demand.
❏ CCUS must be used to produce
hydrogen from fossil sources.
Estimated CO2 storage capacity is
not sufficient to decarbonize all
regional hydrogen. In this region,
CCUS potential is immature.
Countries should seek CO2
storage locations, develop carbon-
recycling technologies, and
stimulate hydrogen-producing
initiatives (ERIA, 2022).
ASEAN has resources to create grey, blue, and green hydrogen
demonstrates the necessity for hydrogen as a new primary energy
source—AMS own necessary infrastructure to advance hydrogen energy
development.
According to ACE (2021), utilizing carbon capture and storage (CCS)
technology in 2025 to 2030 scenario, will contemplate developing blue
hydrogen to reduce emissions.
Carbon emissions from road transportation in the AMS might be
significantly decreased if FCEVs are combined with hydrogen
produced primarily from renewable sources by 2030 (ACE, 2021).

ERIA's research on hydrogen energy has uncovered tremendous

potential to meet East Asia's supply and demand requirements. If
implemented by all sectors, the cost of hydrogen will reduce by more
than 50 percent by 2040.
In the EAS region, the construction of a Green hydrogen supply chain is essential.

Supply Amount of Hydrogen (million normal cubic metres), ERIA 2018 ❏ Hydrogen supply costs are
currently expensive; these
must be reduced through the
expansion of hydrogen demand
(ERIA, 2022).
❏ The development of innovative
hydrogen production and
transport technologies will help
reduce hydrogen supply costs
Demand Amount for Hydrogen (million normal cubic metres), ERIA 2019 (ERIA, 2022).
❏ A hydrogen value chain – to
connect both hydrogen
production and demand sites –
must be established (ERIA,
2022).
 Prerequisites for Green Hydrogen Value Chain
(From primary energy use to end use across development, operations and trading and
marketing)

• Long standing technical credibility (eg large scale cryogenics) and

customer relationship
• Asset base (eg European refineries incentivized to consume renewable
hydrogen) and global foot print.
• Vast hydrogen experience in refining chemical segment , including
experience of ammonia and urea production
• CCS expertise and renewable track record and 100 GW by 2030 ambition
• Material pilots and R&D Effort
• Emerging portfolio of large scale hydrogen/derivative projects in
locations with advantage renewables or gas feedback/CCS capacity
 Barriers & Challenges in Easblishing
Green Hydrogen Supply Chains
TECHNOLOGICAL INSTITUTIONAL FINANCIAL
 When switching to LOHC,  Lack of clarity regarding
converting and transporting future demand—countries  Both the production,
hydrogen can generate with a recent strategy may not transport, and storage
additional CO2 emissions have supporting policies in portions of the value chain
(Reuß et al., 2017; IRENA, place yet are still hampered by the
2021). So, it has a negative high cost of current
environmental effects.  The price gap between technologies
renewable hydrogen and fossil
 Lack of technical and fuel-based alternatives has not  A lack of supportive policies
commercial standards; been closed by any policy that are not yet in place can
Unsuitable quality standards stymie the possibility to add
for hydrogen—the necessity to  Lack of standards, very small a revenue stream and lower
transport and store hydrogen markets, and lack of bankable hydrogen costs
introduces risks that must be projects.
How to Pioneer in Mass production of Green Hydrogen
1. Kickstart refining demand

300 ktpa grey hydrogen in European refinieries to be decarbonized by 2030

2.Develop to GW scale capacity

Move to GW scale capacity by 2030

3. Act on infrastructure development and demand

No massive project without massive demand
 World Hydrogen Strategy 2030
Green Dream
Rapid shift from oil and gas and reduced
energy demand

Innovations wins
New solutions with rapid commercialization Great wall of change
A low carbon infrastructure path

Surfers
Riding the wave of opportunity
 Green Hydrogen Economy 2030
Volume Strategies
• Countries and companies will build low carbon green hydrogen supply chain
utilizing their refinery assets and expand volume to meet future H2 demand
• H2 demand is considered to grow in mobilities, power stations, steel mills, ships
and railways
2025 2030 2050 onwards
In-house utilization Building large scale H2 supply chains
Strategies
of green H2 and supply to industrial clusters
Governmental
Eg 2milion 5 million 25 million
targets

H2 utilization Test operation commercialization Business Expansion

In house use
FC Cs, FC bus/trucks
Powe stations, steel mills
Ships, Raiways etc
 Surfers Strategy for Hydrogen Economy 2030
Innovation along
supply chains
Developing a complete value
chain for clean hydrogen is
necessary to demonstrate the
viability of green and safe
hydrogen.
Market expansion -
demand creation
Given this substantial increase in
demand, the magnitude of input
energy required, and the
similarities between the hydrogen
value chain and the fossil fuel value
chain (including upstream,
midstream, and downstream
aspects), the green hydrogen
industry should attract investment
Capacity Building - for
industries and policy
makers
The capacity building
programme is required to
traget setting, support,
promote, and advance the
generation of hydrogen
technology-related knowledge
and innovation.
 Reach us at:

Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

ASEAN Secreteriat Lt. Mezzanine
70 Jl. Sisingamanaraja, Jakarata Seletan 12110
Indonesia

Tel : +62-21-726-2991 | Fax : +62-21-7278-9006

Email : v.anbumozhi@eria.org | Website : www.eria.org