SIOP® Lesson Plan

Grade/Class/Subject: 11th Grade Math

Unit/Theme: Probability

Standards:

CCSS Standards:

CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.CP.A.2 - Understand that two events A and B are independent if the

probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this
characterization to determine if they are independent.

WIDA Standards:

ELD-MA.9-12.Argue.Interpretive – Interpret concepts in arguments by distinguishing correct from

flawed logic.

ELD-MA.9-12.Argue.Expressive – Construct mathematics arguments that justify (and refute) conclusions

with evidence and mathematical principles.

Content Objectives: Students will be able to understand the idea of mathematical independence and use
it to solve problems. They will also be able to use yesterday’s understanding of the complement to help us
solve problems involving independence.

Language Objectives: Students will be able to share their solutions in a Jigsaw activity. They will also
be able to state and justify their response to the Exit Ticket question.

Key Vocabulary Supplementary Materials

 Independence  Guided Notes

 Independent Probability Graphic
Organizer

SIOP® Features

Lesson Preparation Scaffolding Grouping Options

✔ Adaptation of ✔ Modeling ✔ Whole class

Content

✔ Links to ✔ Guided practice ✔ Small groups

Background

✔ Links to Past ✔ Independent Partners

 Learning practice

✔ Strategies ✔ Comprehensible ✔ Independent

Incorporated input

Integration of Process Application Assessment

✔ Reading ✔ Hands-on ✔ Individual

✔ Writing ✔ Meaningful Group

✔ Speaking ✔ Linked to ✔ Written

objectives

Listening ✔ Promotes Oral

engagement

Lesson Sequence

Building Background (5 mins)

Have students work independently on the following “Do Now” questions based on the previous class:

The YMCA has a special barbecue lunch each Friday at their summer camp. Campers order either a hot
dogs, a hamburger, or both. Out of 20 campers, 7 ordered a hot dog and 5 ordered a hamburger.

 If all students place an order, how many students ordered both a hot dog and a hamburger?
 What is the probability that a student ordered a hot dog and a hamburger?

Call on a student to answer each question. For the first question, ask one student to explain the
significance of the word and that we discussed in yesterday’s class. Make sure that they link it to our
understanding of intersection from yesterday. Next, emphasize the idea of the complement from the
previous class. If there are 20 students, 7 ordered hot dogs, and 5 ordered hamburgers, then the
remaining 8 must have ordered both. We will be using a similar strategy in today’s class, so it is
important to remind students of the definition. As a result, there is an 8/20, or 2/5, probability that
students ordered both a hot dog and a hamburger.

Motivate today’s class by explaining that we will be looking at a new understanding of the intersection
today.

Definition of Independence (10 mins)

Introduce independence in terms of probability. In order to help students understand independence, I

would first teach a “core meaning:”

 If two things are independent, they do not affect each other.

To make a further connection to our understanding of independence, ask the students if they have any
familiarity with the concept of Independence Day, whether that be in the United States or another
country. In the United States’ case, explain that the government of Britain no longer makes laws that
affect the lives of those in the United States. After explaining the United States’ situation, call on a few
volunteers to share a story about their nation’s independence from a colonial ruler.

Now teach them the mathematical definition:

 Let’s say there are two events, A and B. If A and B are independent, then the probability of A
and B is the product of their probabilities.
o Mathematically, this is P(A and B) = P(A)P(B).

Solving a Problem Involving Independence (15 mins)

Ask students if coin flips are independent events. Does one coin flip affect the next coin flip? In other
words, if I get a heads on the first flip, am I more or less likely to get a heads the next time? Explain to
the students that the answer is no. There are still two sides and the coin is evenly weighted, so the
chance of getting a heads is always ½, regardless of any previous flips. Since the flips do not affect one
another, then each coin flip is independent.
Pass out the graphic organizer for solving problems about independence. This can be found in Lesson 2
Appendix Materials.

Now that we have established independence, ask the students the following question:

 If I flip two coins, what is the probability that I get two heads?

First, find the probability of getting a heads on the first flip. As I said above, there are two sides to the
coin and it is evenly weighted. So:

 P(heads on the first flip) = ½.

For the exact same reason,

 P(heads on the second flip) = ½.

Lastly, ask students what we do with those probabilities. Since they are independent, we multiply the
probabilities together:

 P(two heads) = P(heads on the first flip)P(heads on the second flip) = (1/2)(1/2) = ¼

Jigsaw Groups (15 mins)

Break students up into three groups. Distribute a different worksheet to each group. Each worksheet
has one of the following three questions:

 Let’s say that there are two wheels divided up into ten spaces. When the wheel is spun, it stops
on either a black space or a red space. The first wheel has four red spaces. The second wheel
has eight red spaces. What is the probability that the first wheel lands on a black space and the
 second wheel lands on a red space?
 Let’s say there are two baskets. The first one has four total marbles, two blue and two white.
The second one has eight total marbles, seven green and the rest purple. You are picking one
marble from each basket. What is the probability that you pick a blue marble and a purple
marble?
 Let’s say that you have made two playlists. The first one has twenty songs, half pop and half
classic rock. The second one has thirty songs, ten hip hop and the rest rap. You are picking one
song from each playlist at random. What is the probability that you pick a pop song and a rap
song?

Give the students five minutes to work in their groups. After the five minutes, mix the students into
groups of three so that they are working with people from the other two groups. Give the students 5
minutes to explain to each other how they solved their problem. Lastly, come back into the main group
for five minutes and let students share their answers with everyone.

Note that each question requires students to find one extra piece of information:

 Group 1 – How many black spaces are on the second wheel?

o Wheel 2: Ten total spaces and eight red spaces, so two black spaces
 Group 2 – How many purple marbles are in the second basket?
o Basket 2: Eight total marbles and seven green, so one purple marble
 Group 3 – How many rap songs are on the second playlist?
o Playlist 2: Thirty total songs and ten hip hop songs, so twenty rap songs

This relates back to our understanding of the complement from yesterday’s class. This is a way to
activate students’ background knowledge in a setting other than the “Do Now” question.

In order to keep track of this additional information, I added a space in the graphic organizer.

See Lesson 2 Appendix Materials to see a worked example of Group 2’s problem.

Discussion (10 mins)

In order to further students’ understanding of independence, ask them a “Big Question:”

 Can you design a problem where the events are NOT independent?

If the students are struggling after a minute, give them some guidance. Ask them to look at the
examples from the Jigsaw problems. Is there any way to change the problem so that the events are not
independent? For example, look at the bucket question. What if we were to only pull marbles out of the
first bucket? The probability would change every time because there would be fewer marbles each time
a marble is selected. In other words, picking a marble affects the probability of picking the next marble.
Be sure to use the word “affects” because that is the word we used in the core meaning definition.

Now that we’ve established that picking marbles out of the same bucket is not independent, ask them to
contrast this scenario with flipping coins. The idea is that one coin flip does not affect the next coin
flip, whereas picking one marble affects picking the next one.

Exit Ticket (5 mins)

Ask the students the following question:

 There is one bucket with five red balls and seven green balls. Every time a ball is picked, it is
put back into the bucket and another marble is picked again. Now two classmates, Julie and
Amy, are working on the problem. Julie says the events are independent, while Amy says they
are not. Choose one person to support and defend your answer in two or three written
sentences. Make sure you relate your answer to our core meaning of independence.

Now evaluate the students on a scale of one to three.

 Level 1
o Amy is correct. The events are not independent because there is one bucket, just like
the example from the discussion where there was only one bucket.
 This is a Level 1 response because it is incorrect. While the problem is similar
to an earlier problem, the student has not made any attempts to use the
definition of independence. The ball is replaced each time, so the probabilities
stay the same after each selection.
 Level 2
o Julie is correct. The events are independent because the number of balls is the same
each time. As a result, the probabilities are also the same each time.
 This is very close. The correct answer is given and the student properly
explained why the events are independent. However, I wanted the student to
reference our core meaning of independence from before.
 Level 3
o Julie is correct. The events are independent because the number of balls is the same
each time, so the probabilities also stay the same. As a result, picking a ball does not
affect picking the next ball.
 This is the ideal answer. The student has correctly stated, and explained why,
Julie is right. What separates the Level 3 answer from the Level 2 answer is
that the Level 3 answer specifically references our earlier definition of
independence. It is especially good that the student uses the words “does not
affect,” which we used in our definition.
Record a score for each student, but do not write on the paper at all. These will be returned unmarked
tomorrow so students can work in pairs and perform a self-assessment.

Reflection

Were the Jigsaw problems of the same difficulty? Were they too similar? Were they too different?

Was the “Big Question” too broad? Were my clarifying questions helpful? Did I give them too much
guidance?

Echevarría, Vogt, and Short (2017), Making Content Comprehensible for English Learners: The SIOP®
Model.