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2373 Wiesmeth
2373 Wiesmeth
North-Holland
Hans WIESMETH*
University of Bonn, D-5300 Bonn. FRG
This paper attempts to implement the state preference approach in a multiperiod exchange
economy. The procedure is relevant for a further investigation of various important issues in
corporate tinance, such as the results of Modigliani and Miller, and the integration of the state
preference and the mean-variance approach to asset pricing.
1. Introduction
The state preference approach to general equilibrium in an economy as
developed by Arrow (1964) and Debreu (1959) is one of the most general
frameworks available for the theory of finance under uncertainty. However,
prior to the work of Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), there was little
thought or hope of an application of this model to practical problems in
finance, such as capital budgeting: ‘. . . the absence of a natural, agreed upon,
and manageably small set of state dejkitions puts severe obstacles in the way of
examining data about observable security behavior in terms of underlying
choices for sequences of time state claims’ [Hirshleifer (1970, p. 277); cp. also
the critical remarks of Hakansson (1978)]. On the other hand, the difficulty
of giving empirical content to the state preference approach, in spite of its
importance for investigating theoretical issues, explains the success of the
capital asset pricing model (CAPM), brought forward by Sharpe (1964) and
Lintner (1965). The hegemony of the mean-variance approach is due to its
apparent ease of applicability and to properties, such as efficiency of
equilibrium outcomes, at least for certain classes of utility functions [Mossin
(1973)-J
The rigorous development of the arbitrage pricing theory of contingent
claims, however, opened new possibilities for an application of the state
preference approach to corporate finance. This theory, originally advanced
*I would like to thank the editor, A. Sandmo, and the referees for various useful comments. I
am especially grateful to one of the referees for drawing my attention to the issue of robustness,
addressed in the final section. Financial support of the Faculty of Arts, York University, is
gratefully acknowledged.
by Black and Scholes (1973), and Merton (1973), is based on the observation
that the ability to trade financial securities frequently enough can enable a
few multiperiod securities to span many states of nature such that the system
of markets becomes effectively complete [see Kreps (1982). Miiller (1985)].
The behavior of asset prices and their stochastic properties in such a general
framework is examined by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985). Breeden and
Litzenberger (1978) are among the first with their attempt to implement the
state preference model in a multiperiod economy, to make the Arrow-
Debreu model operational, by deriving the prices of primitive securities from
the prices of European call options on aggregate consumption expenditures
at each date. From this derivation, a valuation equation is then obtained for
all existing securities and capital budgeting projects [cp. also Banz and
Miller (1978) for an empirical application]. Other contributions by Harris
(1980), and Dybvig and Ingersoll (1982) investigate the link between the state
preference and the mean-variance approach to asset pricing. An integration
of both paradigms should yield a model with both the applicability of the
CAPM and the theoretical attractions of the Arrow-Debreu model. And the
recent development is characterized by the application of the state preference
approach to an investigation of various critical issues in corporate finance.
Important contributions in this area refer to the irrelevance results of
Modigliani and Miller [Benninga (1979), Senbet and Taggart (1984)], and to
equilibrium models of asset pricing under a progressive personal tax
structure [Lai (1989)]. Altogether, the arbitrage pricing theory and the
possibility of completing an otherwise incomplete market system made the
Arrow-Debreu model indispensable for corporate finance.
This paper attempts also to implement the state preference approach in a
multiperiod exchange economy. We thereby proceed in the following way: we
are given a set of commodity securities. As in the model of Breeden and
Litzenberger (1978), the focus is on deriving equilibrium prices for the
primitive Arrow-Debreu securities from the asset prices. In contrast to their
approach, however, we concentrate on the investigation of necessary and
sufficient conditions, which allow a valuation of all securities. One of these
conditions, which is especially interesting for empirical and practical appli-
cations, provides the economic background of their model. This condition
refers to equilibrium patterns of asset prices in a multiperiod framework. It
allows a conclusion, whether a unique valuation of the Arrow-Debreu
securities, and therefore of all capital budgeting projects, is possible, whether
the system of markets is complete, given equilibrium asset prices. In general,
the approach chosen in this paper should open the way for further
applications of the state preference approach to corporate finance. The above
mentioned papers by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978), Benninga (1979),
Harris (1980), and Dybvig and Ingersoll (1982) provide good examples of
such applications at both a theoretical and an empirical level.
H. Wiesmeth, The state preference approach 1249
work with arbitrary commodity securities. A joint product is the result that
the minimum number of assets, necessary to complete a market system, is
independent of the number of commodities. This result dates back to Arrow
(1964) and appears similarly in other related papers [see Kreps (1982)]. It is
also related to the issue of an optimal number of commodity markets,
addressed by Williams (1986).
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. The next section
contains a brief review of Radner’s equilibrium model, suitably adjusted to
allow for general commodity securities. The various completeness concepts
are then introduced and motivated, followed by the main theorem and
several implications of these investigations. Final remarks, referring especially
to the robustness of these results, conclude the paper.
2. The model
As the following model is both a natural extension of the Arrow-Debreu
model with uncertainty [Debreu (1959)] and a slightly modified version of
Radner’s model [Radner (1982)], only its main features will be outlined in
this section.
The model takes into account a temporal exchange economy extending
over three periods of time, t =O, 1,2, with an uncertain environment, des-
cribed by an event tree, M, is the finite set of elementary events in period t.
It is assumed that everybody can observe the elementary events m,oM,, and
has complete information with respect to M,. M denotes the set of all
elementary events, or the set of all branching points of the event tree.
There is a finite set H of commodities, described by their physical
characteristics. Spot markets for these commodities open in each elementary
event ME M. Furthermore, there are commodity securities, e.g., commodity
futures, characterized by their state-contingent payoffs. We also assume that
there is a finite set J of real securities, which, for simplicity, can be traded in
any event ME M, before a possible payoff is realized in m. For j EJ and
m E M, aj,E a”, denotes payoff of security j in m.’ Of course, security j E J
will only then be traded in M EM, if there exists nE M with nzm, i.e., the
future event n is attainable from event m, such that aj,#O. This set of
securities is exogenously given; we therefore do not attempt to answer the
question, why markets for exactly these securities exist [cp. Williams (1986)].
By G, we then denote the set of all securities including the spot market
transactions in rno M, which can be considered as trade in simple commodity
securities.
There is a finite set I of agents, with agent i described by the intertemporal
utility function ui: 9”;” -9. The utility functions are assumed to be strictly
‘For notational simplicity, we denote sets and the number of their elements identically.
H. Wiesmeth. The state preference approach 1251
Definition 2. Let f,(z) be the set of all pairs (x,,zi), which are attainable for
agent iE I at security prices II. Denote by Yi(A) the set of all (x,,z~)E~~(x),
which are optimal for agent i with respect to the utility function ui.
[(x,,z~)~,K] is a Radner equilibrium, if:
(1) (Xi, Zi) E vi(lr) for all i E I,
t2) Cielzijnzo for all j E G, and all n E M.
m E M, and spot prices (p,,,),,,,m E M, are given. The portfolio strategy (ej,)j,,
generates the Arrow-Debreu security bh, given hi H and rii~ M, and is
self-financing with respect to (7tjm)j.mand (p,),, if the following conditions
are satisfied:
(1) Assume for simplicity that 6~ M, and consider the uniquely determined
EE M, with ~Ezii.
l For kEMz with klii:
pk fork=fi,
0 fork#m.
l For kEM2, k#rii, and for kEM,, k#ii: 0,,=0 for alljEJ.
(2) Consider then the origin 0 of the event tree:
l For kEM,:
This definition contains implicitly the assumption that the asset are traded in
a certain event me M before their payoff in this event is realized. This payoff
can then be traded in on the spot markets. Altogether, this definition is an
appropriate modification of the corresponding concept used in models with
pure financial assets [cp. again Kreps (1982), Miiller (1985)].
We can now introduce the first practically relevant completeness concept.
A motivation for this definition has to be seen in the fact that it allows a
valuation of Arrow-Debreu securities. Similar to the procedure in Breeden
and Litzenberger (197Q equilibrium asset prices implicitly contain the prices
of the state-contingent claims with possible implications for capital budget-
ing. The problem, however, is that this valuation is not necessarily unique,
indicating arbitrage possibilities. The exact relationship to the
C,-completeness concept will be established in the following section.
~ui/ax~~ = Ant
(1) for i~~m,n~~h,k~H.
~dWn An
given
Thus, XiE Bi((&m),.h), (XivZi) E fi(n)*
Moreover, eqs. (1) show that Xi maximizes utility in the budget set; it
follows then immediately from eqs. (2) and (5) that [(&,),.h,(Xi)i] is an
equilibrium for the associated Arrow-Debreu economy ((Ui),(Wim)).
So far the proof of this lemma, completing also the proof of C,*C,, and
ca*c4.
The main theorem guarantees that all the associated Arrow-Debreu price
systems are also equilibrium price systems. A consequence is that a
C,-complete system allows a unique transformation of equilibrium security
prices into equilibrium Arrow-Debreu prices, which in turn allow a
preference-free valuation of any contingent claim. The formal discussion of
this remark will be continued following the proof:
=&POnajn
711” + Pcn 1 POdjm
maMAn)
1 C zjnejn-
njnejo= C flj.P.aj.+PJ,, nEM1.
jsJ jsJ jeJ
The first and the second term refer to the condition of a self-tinancing
strategy, whereas the third term refers to the payoff of the contingent claim
in event n. This system of equations can be solved for an arbitrary X if and
only if the rank of the coefftcient matrix ((7tjn)j.n) with no MI and jo J is
equal to the number of elements in M r .
l The associated system for the determination of Arrow-Debreu prices reads
as follows:
Again, this system has a unique solution in the variables (I/K), n E Ml, for
each positive po, if and only if the rank of the coeflicient matrix ((nj,)j,,) with
n E M,, je J is equal to the number of elements in M 1.
H. Wiesmeth, The state preference approach 1261
l The proof of the theorem is complete, if we choose pO= 1, and the volume
of the transactions on the spot markets in the origin of the event tree equal
to x,.
This completes the proof of the theorem. Returning now to the issue of a
preference-free valuation, assume that a contingent claim X is given. In a
C,-complete market system the price n;f of X in m E M is:
Of course, (p,), are spot market equilibrium prices in the Radner system,
whereas (~(,,,,p~,,,),,, is the associated Arrow-Debreu equilibrium price system.
Hence, we obtain a preference-free valuation of X in the sense that rrf
depends only on (expected) spot market prices. n”, is usually denoted as the
arbitrage price of X in rnE M.
Consider now a system, which is C,-complete. The efficiency prices of an
efficient allocation are then related to the Radner prices via mapping $.
Clearly, evaluating a contingent claim at these efficiency prices yields
equilibrium prices for this contingent claim. This is then a second example of
a preference-free valuation of a contingent claim. Of course, it can happen in
this case that additional Radner equilibria appear with the introduction of
another asset into a C,-complete, but C,-incomplete market system. As
C,-completeness is a weaker requirement than C,-completeness, this second
method of a preference-free valuation is more general.
This method can especially be applied to the case of the classical CAPM.
Assume that all agents have identical utility functions of the HARA-type.
Then equilibrium allocations are efficient [cp. Mossin (1973)] and the above
results hold. What is the consequence? Dybvig and Ingersoll (1982) investi-
gate the link between the state preference and the mean-variance approach.
They show that the requirements of mean-variance pricing of the Arrow-
Debreu securities typically permit arbitrage opportunities to arise. They
point out that the introduction of a financial asset into an incomplete market
system at an (inefficient) CAPM equilibrium will destroy that equilibrium.
Clearly, somewhat stronger versions of these results are an immediate
consequence of the above considerations. Dybvig and Ingersoll (1982) then
demonstrate conditions under which the CAPM equilibrium will hold for a
subset of assets. Again, the results obtained in this paper should allow further
investigations in this area.
Another remark refers to the problem of an optimal number of commodity
markets [cp. Williams (1986)]. The proof of the above theorem shows that
what really matters is the construction of a self-financing portfolio with the
appropriate financial return in each relevant event me M. This fact together
1262 H. Wiesmeth, The state preference approach
with the existence of all spot markets is then responsible for the observation
that the number of real assets, necessary for a complete market system, is
independent of the number of the commodities. This shows a certain parallel
to Arrow’s model with financial securities [Arrow (1964)], but also has
implications for an optimal number of security markets, if one interprets
‘optimal’ accordingly. Actually, it turns out that the optimal number in this
sense is equal to the maximal number of branches of the event tree [see also
Kreps (1982)].
A final consideration refers to a measure theoretic property of the scalars
(PI& ME M. Assume that (p,,,,pom),,, with ,u~= 1 is the unique Arrow-Debreu
equilibrium price system, associated with the Radner equilibrium price
system ((nj,)j,p,), via mapping $. We then obtain for no M, and
Mom,+,:
njn - Pnajn=
This means that the price of an asset j in event n, net of the value of its
payoff in event n, can be written as the integral of the random variable (rrj,,,),
on M,+,(n) with respect to the measure (,u,,/p,), ME M,+,(n). This is then a
generalization of the martingale property, which is a cornerstone of expec-
tations models of asset prices [cp. LeRoy (1982)], playing especially a role in
the theory of efficient markets [cp. Fama (1970)]. Clearly, this measure on
M,+,(n) is uniquely determined so that we obtain the following corollary,
which has a counterpart in models with financial assets [see Miiller (1985)].
Corollary I. The market system (M,(a,,),(ui),(Oi,,,)) is C,-complete if and
only tf there exist uniquely determined positive numbers pm, m E M, PO= 1, for
each Radner equilibrium price system, such that the price of an asset j in an
event nE M,, t 22, net of the value of its payoff in event n, can be written as the
integral of the price variable on M,, , (n) with respect to the measure (p,,/p,) on
M, + 1(n).
Observe that this martingale property refers to the economy as a whole. If
individual agents are not risk-neutral, then security prices will not follow
exact martingales from the individual viewpoint [cp. Lucas (1978), LeRoy
(1982)].
6. Final remarks
Modigliani and Miller, and a thorough study of the relationship between the
state preference and the mean-variance approach to asset pricing.
Both practically and theoretically relevant completeness concepts are
introduced for a Radner equilibrium model with perfect foresight. These
completeness definitions are obtained by comparing the performance of the
competitive mechanism in the Radner model and an associated Arrow-
Debreu model. The main theorem lists then all inclusions among the various
concepts.
How robust are the results? Consider first economies, which are
C,-complete, but not C,-complete. These are economies where preferences
are such that portfolio separation theorems apply. The classical CAPM
provides a typical example. Clearly, any perturbation of preferences or
endowments, which maintains C,-completeness, can never yield
C,-completeness, as the latter depends upon structural properties of the set
of securities. Consider then economies, which are C,-complete, but not
C,-complete. These are economies where the Radner equilibrium prices are
the same as those, which would be generated from the implementation of an
Arrow-Debreu equilibrium as a Radner equilibrium, but do not support the
same allocation. This appears to be a fragile constellation in the sense that
an arbitrarily small perturbation of preferences or endowments can render
C,-incomplete economies also C,-incomplete. This result and its conse-
quences for corporate finance should, however, be studied more carefully.
From the viewpoint of general equilibrium theory, a generalization of the
above considerations could attempt to replace the comparatively strong and
unnatural assumption of perfect foresight by an assumption of differential
information. A dynamic model with rational expectations would result, if
prices reveal additional information to the agents from period to period.
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1264 H. Wigsmeth, The state preference approach