Rho 𝑆_𝑡=100+𝜌(𝑆_(𝑡−1)−100)+𝜖_𝑡

1 S R R.1
410.00
1 100.00
2 100.55
3 102.37 1.81% 360.000.00%
4 98.52 -3.76% 1.81%
5 101.48 3.00% -3.76%
6 107.02 5.46% 310.003.00%
7 103.00 -3.76% 5.46%
8 104.82 1.77% -3.76%
260.00
9 100.41 -4.20% 1.77%
10 109.22 8.78% -4.20%
11 108.91 -0.29% 210.00
8.78%
12 108.98 0.06% -0.29%
13 105.65 -3.06% 0.06%
14 107.34 1.60% 160.00
-3.06%
15 106.49 -0.79% 1.60%
16 106.39 -0.10% -0.79%
110.00
17 112.34 5.59% -0.10%
18 115.18 2.53% 5.59%
19 114.06 -0.97% 2.53%
60.00
20 112.47 -1.39% -0.97%1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183
21 117.42 4.40% -1.39%
22 111.82 -4.77% 4.40%
23 116.35 4.05% -4.77%
24 119.91 3.06% 4.05%
25 115.86 -3.37% 3.06%
26 119.10 2.79% -3.37%
27 121.94 2.39% 2.79%
28 114.35 -6.23% 2.39%
29 114.49 0.12% -6.23%
30 115.99 1.32% 0.12%
31 115.05 -0.81% 1.32%
32 119.19 3.60% -0.81%
33 117.53 -1.39% 3.60%
34 122.73 4.43% -1.39%
35 122.29 -0.36% 4.43%
36 117.61 -3.83% -0.36%
37 113.21 -3.74% -3.83%
38 112.75 -0.40% -3.74%
39 117.85 4.52% -0.40%
40 124.32 5.48% 4.52%
41 126.12 1.45% 5.48%
42 130.10 3.15% 1.45%
43 130.87 0.59% 3.15%
44 137.28 4.90% 0.59%
45 139.30 1.47% 4.90%
46 141.98 1.93% 1.47%
47 145.22 2.28% 1.93%
48 150.60 3.70% 2.28%
49 160.21 6.38% 3.70%
50 161.47 0.79% 6.38%
51 162.82 0.84% 0.79%
52 164.80 1.22% 0.84%
53 164.84 0.03% 1.22%
54 168.50 2.22% 0.03%
55 166.57 -1.15% 2.22%
56 173.06 3.90% -1.15%
57 177.34 2.47% 3.90%
58 184.51 4.04% 2.47%
59 184.71 0.11% 4.04%
60 182.16 -1.38% 0.11%
61 179.76 -1.32% -1.38%
62 182.19 1.35% -1.32%
63 177.86 -2.38% 1.35%
64 181.86 2.25% -2.38%
65 183.65 0.98% 2.25%
66 183.71 0.03% 0.98%
67 185.41 0.93% 0.03%
68 188.76 1.81% 0.93%
69 189.41 0.34% 1.81%
70 186.39 -1.59% 0.34%
71 186.57 0.10% -1.59%
72 186.03 -0.29% 0.10%
73 190.84 2.59% -0.29%
74 188.57 -1.19% 2.59%
75 190.53 1.04% -1.19%
76 192.25 0.90% 1.04%
77 191.89 -0.19% 0.90%
78 188.72 -1.65% -0.19%
79 187.19 -0.81% -1.65%
80 188.44 0.67% -0.81%
81 193.95 2.92% 0.67%
82 196.48 1.30% 2.92%
83 196.20 -0.14% 1.30%
84 198.11 0.97% -0.14%
85 195.47 -1.33% 0.97%
86 195.13 -0.18% -1.33%
87 192.16 -1.52% -0.18%
88 191.40 -0.39% -1.52%
 89 192.10 0.36% -0.39%
90 194.72 1.37% 0.36%
91 197.62 1.49% 1.37%
92 199.52 0.96% 1.49%
93 199.78 0.13% 0.96%
94 204.39 2.30% 0.13%
95 203.27 -0.55% 2.30%
96 208.11 2.38% -0.55%
97 211.12 1.44% 2.38%
98 215.12 1.89% 1.44%
99 212.24 -1.34% 1.89%
100 209.88 -1.11% -1.34%
101 207.00 -1.37% -1.11%
102 210.33 1.61% -1.37%
103 215.27 2.35% 1.61%
104 217.91 1.23% 2.35%
105 214.17 -1.72% 1.23%
106 214.62 0.21% -1.72%
107 213.67 -0.44% 0.21%
108 215.72 0.96% -0.44%
109 216.58 0.40% 0.96%
110 218.49 0.88% 0.40%
111 222.09 1.65% 0.88%
112 220.97 -0.51% 1.65%
113 225.61 2.10% -0.51%
114 225.99 0.17% 2.10%
115 224.80 -0.53% 0.17%
116 226.08 0.57% -0.53%
117 232.02 2.63% 0.57%
118 229.94 -0.90% 2.63%
119 224.35 -2.43% -0.90%
120 225.75 0.63% -2.43%
121 226.19 0.19% 0.63%
122 232.49 2.78% 0.19%
123 234.64 0.93% 2.78%
124 235.91 0.54% 0.93%
125 238.06 0.91% 0.54%
126 241.30 1.36% 0.91%
127 244.75 1.43% 1.36%
128 243.81 -0.38% 1.43%
129 243.33 -0.20% -0.38%
130 242.79 -0.22% -0.20%
131 245.85 1.26% -0.22%
132 252.44 2.68% 1.26%
133 256.42 1.58% 2.68%
134 254.67 -0.68% 1.58%
135 262.44 3.05% -0.68%
136 263.36 0.35% 3.05%
137 262.94 -0.16% 0.35%
138 261.12 -0.69% -0.16%
139 260.04 -0.41% -0.69%
140 263.88 1.48% -0.41%
141 261.81 -0.79% 1.48%
142 259.32 -0.95% -0.79%
143 264.37 1.94% -0.95%
144 262.34 -0.77% 1.94%
145 260.67 -0.64% -0.77%
146 264.10 1.32% -0.64%
147 269.11 1.90% 1.32%
148 272.59 1.29% 1.90%
149 271.93 -0.24% 1.29%
150 276.68 1.75% -0.24%
151 281.26 1.66% 1.75%
152 282.66 0.50% 1.66%
153 284.43 0.63% 0.50%
154 286.18 0.61% 0.63%
155 284.94 -0.43% 0.61%
156 288.44 1.23% -0.43%
157 285.28 -1.09% 1.23%
158 288.81 1.24% -1.09%
159 288.01 -0.27% 1.24%
160 286.21 -0.62% -0.27%
161 283.54 -0.93% -0.62%
162 284.26 0.25% -0.93%
163 291.05 2.39% 0.25%
164 291.48 0.14% 2.39%
165 295.33 1.32% 0.14%
166 296.08 0.25% 1.32%
167 292.24 -1.30% 0.25%
168 297.03 1.64% -1.30%
169 297.61 0.19% 1.64%
170 302.84 1.76% 0.19%
171 300.26 -0.85% 1.76%
172 301.50 0.41% -0.85%
173 301.09 -0.14% 0.41%
174 305.06 1.32% -0.14%
175 302.22 -0.93% 1.32%
176 304.62 0.79% -0.93%
177 304.44 -0.06% 0.79%
178 304.83 0.13% -0.06%
179 309.49 1.53% 0.13%
180 310.22 0.23% 1.53%
181 314.29 1.31% 0.23%
182 313.98 -0.10% 1.31%
183 314.27 0.09% -0.10%
184 308.68 -1.78% 0.09%
185 308.31 -0.12% -1.78%
186 312.73 1.44% -0.12%
187 315.83 0.99% 1.44%
188 319.40 1.13% 0.99%
189 321.51 0.66% 1.13%
190 327.06 1.73% 0.66%
191 327.13 0.02% 1.73%
192 325.56 -0.48% 0.02%
193 323.79 -0.54% -0.48%
194 326.77 0.92% -0.54%
195 327.20 0.13% 0.92%
196 334.65 2.28% 0.13%
197 339.48 1.44% 2.28%
198 341.55 0.61% 1.44%
199 344.80 0.95% 0.61%
200 339.89 -1.42% 0.95%
201 342.56 0.79% -1.42%
202 342.11 -0.13% 0.79%
203 349.14 2.05% -0.13%
204 351.51 0.68% 2.05%
205 350.70 -0.23% 0.68%
206 355.10 1.25% -0.23%
207 355.39 0.08% 1.25%
208 361.83 1.81% 0.08%
209 361.33 -0.14% 1.81%
210 365.60 1.18% -0.14%
211 364.16 -0.39% 1.18%
212 364.95 0.22% -0.39%
213 368.78 1.05% 0.22%
214 367.19 -0.43% 1.05%
215 369.27 0.57% -0.43%
216 371.60 0.63% 0.57%
217 374.28 0.72% 0.63%
218 375.10 0.22% 0.72%
219 368.90 -1.65% 0.22%
220 368.74 -0.04% -1.65%
221 372.75 1.09% -0.04%
222 375.59 0.76% 1.09%
223 381.96 1.70% 0.76%
224 376.47 -1.44% 1.70%
 0.1

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

Return (t+1)
0
-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

-0.02

-0.04

-0.06

-0.08

120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 Return (t=0)
% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

turn (t=0)