Original Article

Proc IMechE Part C:

J Mechanical Engineering Science
Prediction of residual stress in electron 0(0) 1–14
! IMechE 2020
beam welding of stainless steel from Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
process parameters and natural DOI: 10.1177/0954406220950343
journals.sagepub.com/home/pic

frequency of vibrations using

machine-learning algorithms

Debasish Das, Amit Kr Das, DK Pratihar and GG Roy

Abstract
In the present study, machine learning algorithms have been used to predict residual stress during electron beam welding
of stainless steel using the information of input process parameters and natural frequency of vibrations. Accelerating
voltage, beam current and welding speed have been considered as input process parameters. Both residual stress and
natural frequencies of vibration of the weld obtained using each set of the input parameters are measured experimen-
tally. A number of machine learning algorithms, namely M5 algorithm-based Model Trees Regression, Random forest,
Support Vector Regression, Reduced Error Pruning Tree, Multi-layer perceptron, Instance-based k-nearest neighbor
algorithm, and Locally weighted learning have been used for the said purpose. Support vector regression and Locally
weighted learning are found to perform consistently good and bad, respectively. The predicted welding residual stresses
have been validated experimentally through X-ray diffraction (XRD) and good agreements are obtained. In addition,
statistical tests are conducted, and the estimated reliability values of the employed models are analyzed through
Monte-Carlo simulations.

Keywords
Electron beam welding, welding residual stresses, natural frequencies, machine learning algorithms, Monte-Carlo
simulations
Date received: 14 February 2020; accepted: 23 July 2020

Symbols and abbreviations used in the

present study Tok0 l Target values
T
ok0 l Mean of the target value
Symbols Description RSIPP Residual stress obtained from input pro-
cess parameters
RSNFV Residual stress obtained from natural fre-
I Beam current (mA)
quency of vibrations
L Number of training scenarios
U Welding speed (mm/min)
M1 Mode one natural frequency of vibration
V Accelerating voltage (kV)
M2 Mode two natural frequency of vibration
aSL Significance level in the studentized Q
M3 Mode three natural frequency of
table
vibration
w Angles for stress measurements
M4 Mode four natural frequency of vibration
AAPD Average Absolute Percent Deviation
Nsuccess Number of successful scenarios
ANN Artificial Neural Network
Ntotal Total number of scenarios
Ook0 l Predicted output values corresponding to
lth training scenario
poccurrence Probability of occurrence Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India
P Probability value used to check the signif- Corresponding author:
DK Pratihar, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur
icance of a parameter 721302, India.
R2 Correlation Coefficient Email: dkpra@mech.iitkgp.ac.in
2 Proc IMechE Part C: J Mechanical Engineering Science 0(0)

CV Cross validation parameters. Additionally, the post-weld heat treat-

DAQ Data acquisition ments not always ensure the complete removal of
DF Degree of freedom stress.10 As a result, accurate information of stress
EBW Electron beam welding becomes important from the point of failure analysis.
F Ratio of factor MS to error MS A few commonly used stress measuring methods
FEM Finite Element Method include X-Ray diffraction (XRD), neutron diffraction
FFTA Fast Fourier transformation algorithm method, drill hole method, Magnetic Barkhausen
GA Genetic Algorithm Noise (MBN) approach etc.6,9,11 Out of these, stress
GMAW Gas Metal Arc Welding measurement with X-rays is the most extensively used
GTAW Gas Tungsten Arc Welding in different sectors.5 The XRD parameters for the
IBk Instance-based k-NN algorithm present study are listed in Table 1. However, the mea-
k-NN k-nearest neighbor surement of welding stresses is subjected to several
LWL Locally weighted learning difficulties. For example, the stress measurement is
M5P M5 algorithm-based Model Trees carried out at one point, at a time. Moreover, they
Regression are subjected to restrictions on the specific types of
MCS Monte-Carlo simulations materials etc.1 Additionally, in some stress measuring
MLAs Machine learning algorithms machines, the sample size needs to be reduced accord-
MLP Multi-layer perceptron ing to the allowable size of the stage of that machine.
MS Mean square Furthermore, the measurement of residual stress at
MRS Multiple Response Surface
EBW heat affected zone (HAZ) through XRD is
NDT Non-destructive testing
extremely difficult because of the small size of the
REPTree Reduced Error Pruning Tree
HAZ.6 In addition, repetitions of the experiments
RF Random forest
are required for the minimization of deviation,
RMSE Root Mean Square Error
observed in the data. As a result, the overall welding
SS Stainless steel
stress measurement becomes a hectic process.
SS0 Sum of squares
The study of natural frequencies of vibration plays
SRA Statistical Regression Analysis
SVM Support Vector Machine a crucial role in the research and industries.12 The
SVR Support Vector Regression change occurring in the dynamic behavior of
TRB Tapered Roller Bearing structures as a result of stress is defined as the stress-
XRD X-ray diffraction stiffening effect.1,13 Noticeable changes in the dynamic
response of the structures were observed by Bezerra
Introduction et al.,13 because of the presence of welding-induced
residual stresses. The change in natural frequencies
The welding process involves the occurrence of mul- due to the welding residual stresses induced stress-
tiple simultaneous physical processes, namely heat stiffening effect was investigated by Vieira et al.1
transfer, fluid motion, stress formation etc., which Stress was reported in the literature to be the reason
makes the joints vulnerable to failure.1,2 Among for the observed variation in natural frequency.1,13–15
many, the electron beam welding (EBW) process is On the other hand, artificial neural network
a popular high energy welding technique, accompa- (ANN)-based modeling has been known as an estab-
nied by the higher cooling rate, strong influence of lished methodology to predict different weld attrib-
Marangoni forces, Lorentz and buoyant forces.3,4 utes efficiently, and reported extensively for
The integrity and quality of the joints under the influ- modeling of various EBW processes.3,16 As a result,
ence of these complex conditions need to be assured
the authors have employed Multi-layer perceptron
through the proper inspection to prevent any mone-
(MLP), Random forest (RF), Support Vector
tary loss, unwanted failure, and loss of life. The non-
Regression (SVR), Reduced Error Pruning Tree
destructive testing (NDT) methods are extensively
(REPTree), Instance-based k-nearest neighbor algo-
used to detect various welding defects and thereby,
rithm (IBk), M5 algorithm-based Model Trees
maintain the proper quality of the product.5
Regression (M5P), and Locally weighted learning
The thermal cycle induced non-uniform expansion
(LWL) machine learning algorithms (MLAs) to
and contraction of the melt-pool lead to the develop-
address this issue, in the present study.
ment of the welding residual stresses, which are very
crucial to joint failure.6 It has strong influence on the
Table 1. XRD parameters used in the present study.19,49
joint properties.7 High stress is observed to promote
brittle fracture, failure or stress corrosion cracking Tube voltage 30 kV
and reduction in buckling strength.8 Paradowska Tube current 55 mA
et al.9 reported the loss of performances in corrosion, Radiation target Chromium ðCrKaÞ
2h 129
fatigue, fracture and creep due to stress. It also
hkl plane {220}
depends on the weld-geometry and input process
Das et al.
The authors, thus employed different MLAs to
predict welding residual stress obtained using a new
method by utilizing the natural frequency of vibra-
tions and validated it through XRD results with a
reasonable accuracy. Moreover, reliability analyses
of the employed models are carried out using
Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS).
Literature review
A decrease in the stiffness and frequency due to load-
induced instability in a variety of structures was
observed by Jubb et al.17 The effect of vibration on
the mode shapes and natural frequencies of a stressed
rectangular plate were predicted by Kaldas and
Dickinson18 employing the Rayleigh-Ritz method.
The change in vibration characteristics, mode shape
etc. during gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW)-
induced residual stress were conducted by Kaldas
and Dickinson14 using theoretical approach and
finite element method (FEM). The change in the nat-
ural frequencies and overall dynamic response in the
rectangular plates because of GTAW-induced residu-
al stresses were investigated by Vieira et al.1 They
observed the numerical and experimental results
to agree. Bezerra et al.13 used experiments and
ANSYS-based numerical methods, and thereby,
observed significant influence of the residual stress
on the distortion of geometry, structural dynamics,
stress-stiffening effects, etc. Das et al.19 experimental-
ly studied the role of residual stress on the natural
frequency of vibrations. A FEM model was devel-
oped by Lostado et al.20 to predict residual stress,
thermal field and the angular distortion during butt
joining through Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW)
process. The isotropic and kinematic hardening
models were utilized to study the influence of cyclic
plasticity. The FEM predicted and drill-hole measure-
ments were in agreement. Olabi et al.21 reviewed the
role of different input parameters, heat input etc. on
various weld attributes namely, residual stresses, cool-
ing rate, distortion and other mechanical properties
during joining of ferritic and martensitic stainless-
steel welded joints. Giri et al.22 studied the influence
of plasticity and residual stress through blind hole
drilling technique on SS304L and Cr-Mo Grade 91
alloys. The measurements of strain gauge rosettes
during tensile testing were also validated through
FEM. The influence of the diffusible hydrogen con-
tent during shielded metal arc welding of P91 steel
plates were investigated by Pandey et al.23 They also
utilized blind hole drilling technique to measure the
weld-induced residual stresses and validated the same
through FEM, with a reasonable accuracy between
them.
Statistical regression analysis (SRA), fuzzy logic
and artificial neural network (ANN), meta-heuristic
algorithms etc. were used extensively in several weld-
ing problems to predict weld geometries, cooling rate,
3
stresses, UTS etc.2,3,24 Lostado et al.25 combined
ANN, genetic algorithm (GA), regression trees and
FEM to study the influence of input parameters on
the weld geometries, thermal cycle and distortion
during GMAW for weld optimization. Escribano
et al.26 combined finite element analysis and data
mining techniques to develop models to predict the
optimized force, pressure etc. during skin-pass rolling
of steel sheets in real time applications. FEM and
multiple response surface (MRS) method were com-
bined by Lostado et al.27 to determine optimal pre-
load, torque etc. in a double-row Tapered Roller
Bearing (TRB) process. The developed models were
also validated through experiments and theoretical
models. Das et al.28 utilized nature-inspired techni-
ques to ANN-based models for accurate prediction
of different EBW outputs. Martinez et al.29 combined
FEM and machine learning techniques for automatic
classification of loading conditions in a double-row
TRBs. Gomez et al.30 combined the FEM and a desir-
ability function-based MRS to develop an automated
system to study the influence of stiffness and bulges
on the human lumbar intervertebral disc. A model for
automatic determination of the non-linear material
properties of ZSTE 800 high-strength steel during
cyclic stress–compression loading was developed by
Lostado et al.31 through the Combination of GA
and FEM. ANN, SVM etc. were used by Feng
et al.32 to study solidification cracking susceptibility
(SCS) of stainless steel joints. The ultimate tensile
strength (UTS) has been predicted by Verma et al.33
using SVM, multi-linear regression and other MLA
during the joining of AA6082 material through fric-
tion stir welding (FSW) process. Chen et al.34 moni-
tored the laser welding process using a high speed
camera. The captured images of spatter and metal-
vapour plume were used to monitor and analyze the
welding process through SVM. Cracks, porosity and
many other welding defects were investigated through
different MLA.5,35 Petkovi36 investigated the influ-
ence of different laser process parameters, namely
power, speed etc. on the weld quality using SVR,
ANN etc., where SVR was reported to perform the
best. MLP and case-based reasoning algorithms were
used to predict the different welding defects by Liao
et al.37 Ghanty et al.38 studied the effect of GTAW
process parameters on the weld geometry of SS
316LN using MLP and radial basis function neural
networks. Wang and Liao39 observed MLP to outper-
form the fuzzy k-nearest neighbor during the detec-
tion of welding defects using radiographic images.
SVR was observed to predict GTAW attributes
better than MLP with the small data set by Liang
et al.40 M5P, RF, SVM etc. were used through
Weka workbench by Boersch et al.41 to predict accu-
rately the resistance spot welding-based weld
diameter.
4 Proc IMechE Part C: J Mechanical Engineering Science 0(0)

Problem definition and novelty of the present study Table 2. EBW process parameters, developed based on
Taguchi L9 design and used in the present study.
A very few studies have been reported so far on the
investigation of the changes in natural frequency of V (kV) I (mA) U (mm/min) Heat input (kJ/mm)
vibration because of the welding stresses. Moreover, 70 80 1650 0.204
such analysis is mostly confined to mathematical 60 94 1650 0.205
modeling and that too in conventional welding pro- 65 87 1650 0.206
cesses. As a result, work on correlating the experi- 65 80 1200 0.26
mentally measured residual stress with the natural 60 87 1200 0.261
frequency of vibration for EBW process is limited in 70 94 1200 0.329
the literature. Additionally, MLAs also have not been 60 80 750 0.384
employed for the prediction of residual stresses from 70 87 750 0.487
natural frequency of vibrations. 65 94 750 0.489
This issue is addressed through the use of several
MLAs, namely MLP, SVR, M5P, RF, IBk and LWL different input parameters. The final welded joint has
to predict the stress from natural frequency of vibra- the length, breadth and width equal to 110 mm;
tions. The novelty of this study, thus, lies with the 80 mm; and 5 mm; respectively (refer to Figure 1(a)).
development of MLA-based predictive models to Wire-EDM is used to cut the welded plate into the
obtain residual stresses developed in the welded
dimensions of 110  1:54 mm long, 4  0:238 mm
plate from both its process parameters and natural
wide, and 0:64  0:08 mm thick (refer to Figure 1(b))
frequency of vibrations in EBW. Moreover, statistical
at the central workshop (CWISS), IIT Kharagpur,
tests have been conducted to check, if there is a sig-
India. This thin sample is used to carryout vibration
nificant difference in the MLA-predicted values. In
addition, the reliability analysis of the developed analysis for the measurement of natural frequencies.
models through Monte-Carlo simulation has been The work-piece-fixture arrangement is known to have
carried out for the present problem, which is also some influence on the final residual stresses. Hence,
found to be a unique approach in this type of input- the fixture arrangement, used in the present study is
output models of EBW. depicted in Figure 1(c).
Rest of the text is organized as follows:
‘Experimental Procedure’ section deals with the
details of the experiments. Details of the used data Measurement of natural frequencies
set and employed tools and techniques are stated in The natural frequencies of vibration are determined
the subsequent sections, respectively. Next, results are at the Systems, Dynamics and Control Laboratory,
discussed. Final conclusions are provided in the last
Department of Mechanical Engineering, IIT
section.
Kharagpur, India. In an anvil, 5mm along the
length is used to grip the sample. The PDV-100
Experimental procedure Polytec portable digital laser vibrometer emits and
A 80kV-150mA-12 kW EBW machine is used to car- collects the laser light after being reflected from a
ryout welding at IIT Kharagpur, India. The details of reflector, placed at the sample free end (refer to
the EBW is available in literature.42–44 The other set- Figure 1(b)). The details of the setup and working
up details, work-piece details, and experimental pro- methodology are discussed in Figure 2. Here,
cedure are discussed below. The process parameters Figure 2(a) depicts a pictorial representation of the
namely accelerating voltage (V), beam current (mA) experimental setup assembly, where vibration takes
and welding speed (U) are varied in the range of 60– place in the z-axis. The experimental assembly of
70kV, 80–94mA and 750–1650 mm/min, respectively. the Laser vibrometer, DAQ-system, PC with
The detailed combination of process parameters, LabView (2012) is shown in Figure 2(b).The plate
obtained through Taguchi L9 design of experiments vibrates after it is manually struck until the vibration
is provided in Table 2. This design is selected as it’s an is suppressed due to damping effect. This vibration is
efficient tool to maintain accuracy with small data recorded directly in Laser vibrometer-LabView
set.45 The investigated output of the conducted (2012)-DAQ-system assemply is used to capture the
EBW process is the longitudinal residual stress, vibration as velocity-time plot and store it in .m
obtained from two different approaches namely the matlab format. Fast Fourier Transformation algo-
process parameters and from natural frequency of rithm (FFTA) is then employed to calculate the nat-
vibrations. ural frequencies of vibration. Please note that the
change in natural frequency of vibration are consid-
Work-piece details ered upto mode four as the damping effect led to the
SS 304 plates of length, breadth and width equal to measurement of mode five and above infeasible (refer
55mm; 80mm; and 5mm; respectively, are welded for to Figure 3).
Das et al. 5

Figure 1. (a) EBW butt welded SS304 plate, (b) Thin sample for the determination of natural frequency of vibration. (c) Photograph
and schematic view work-piece-fixture arrangement during welding.

Figure 2. (a) 2D representation of set-up assembly. (b) Vibrometer-DAQ assemply photograph for determination of natural
frequency using FFTA.

Stress measurement to measure stress through sin2 ðwÞ method.8,46 The

PANalytical EMPYREAN XRD machine is used to repeatability of the data set is maintained by consid-
measure longitudinal residual stress of welded plates, ering the average of three experimental readings.
at Mechanical Engineering Department, IIT kharag- Additionally, the authors have limited their study to
pur, India. Panalytical stress plus 2.3 software is used longitudinal stresses only, as they have been reported
6 Proc IMechE Part C: J Mechanical Engineering Science 0(0)
Figure 3. Amplitude-Frequency plot corresponding to
different heat input.
to be most crucial to failure analysis.47,48 The details
of the XRD machine parameters are provided in
Table 1.
Data set
Experimental dataset
The present study consists of nine different experi-
mentally measured data sets. The experimental data
set is collected following the Taguchi L9 design of
experiments (refer to Table 2). The data sets are divid-
ed into three groups. The first group contains differ-
ent combination of V; I and U welding process
parameters. The, vibrometer-DAQ-assembly mea-
sured natural frequencies of vibrations corresponding
to different welding process parameters are placed in
group two. Group three contains the XRD-measured
fusion zone longitudinal residual stress corresponding
to different welding process parameters. The working
range of process parameters are stated in Table 2.
Data augmentation
Random number generator is used to obtain various
combinations of input parameters lying within their
respective ranges (refer to Table 2). Then, equations
(1) to (6) are developed through statistical regression
analysis (SRA) employing Minitab 16 with the avail-
able experimental results.19 These equations are uti-
lized to artificially augment the original database to
1000 input-output dataset. Artificial augmentation of
the data is done because conducting 1000 experiments
is difficult and time taking process. Moreover,
Taguchi L9 design is a well-established technique
used to deal with the less number of experimental
data without compromising the model performances.45
M1 ¼ 51:1  0:289V  0:164I þ 0:0125U (1)
M2 ¼ 157  0:952V  0:474I þ 0:0374U (2)
M3 ¼ 273  1:86V  0:725I þ 0:0617U (3)
M4 ¼ 404  3:20V  0:937I þ 0:0945U (4)
RSIPP ¼ 113  0:17V þ 3:36I  0:100U (5)
RSNFV ¼ 391 þ 22M1  22M2 þ 1:4M3 þ 3:84M4
(6)
The present study uses ðR2 Þ,50 Root mean square
error (RMSE)50 and Average absolute percent devia-
tion (AAPD)3 as the parameters to evaluate the per-
formances of the employed algorithms, which are
discussed in equations(7) to (9).
XL
ðTok0l  Ook0l Þ2
R ¼1
2
XLl¼1 (7)

ok0l Þ2
ðTok0l  O
l¼1
sX
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
L
ðTok0l  Ook0l Þ2
RMSE ¼ l¼1
(8)
L
L  
1X  Tok0 l  Ook0 l 
AAPD ¼   100 (9)
L l¼1 Tok0 l
Tools and techniques
WEKA stands for Waikato Environment for
Knowledge Analysis. It is Java-based open-source
software, which contains a wide variety of machine
learning algorithms (MLAs) for data analysis.51–53
Hsieh et al.54 stated Weka to provide an uniform
interface to many MLAs. Amrehn et al.55 stated
Weka to be a popular MLA-based framework
having around 6.5 million downloads, since 2000 A.
D. The authors used Weka 3.8.0 in the present study
to employ MLP, SVR, M5P, RF, IBk and LWL. The
parameters of the employed MLAs are decided
through some trial runs and their values are found
to closely match with that reported in the literature,37
as provided in Table 3. Brief descriptions of the
employed algorithms are discussed below.
MLP is a commonly utilized back-propagation-
based ANN tool,38,56 and is used in various applica-
tions.37,39 SVM is a statistics-based MLA developed
by Vapnik.57 It is used extensively in the welding anal-
ysis for being time and cost effective than the ANN
models.33,34 SVM, employed to carry out regression is
called SVR. It utilizes a kernel function.40 M5
algorithm-based model regression trees are known
to work on divide-and-conquer policy. It is relatively
smaller than other trees and also contains the fewer
variables Namlı et al.56 reported M5P to have less
variables than other tree-based MLAs. Zhan et al.58
observed the M5P algorithm to develop multiple
linear regression models at the tree leaves. The M5P
regression model is reported to be developed using
Das et al.
Table 3. Process parameters of the different machine learning algorithms used in Weka.50,56
Employed algorithms Categories
M5P Trees
RF Trees
SVR Function
REPTree Trees
MLP Function
IBk Lazy learning techniques
LWL Lazy learning techniques
piecewise function of many linear models by Alam
et al.59 The popular and efficient M5 algorithm was
reported to be easily employed to develop reliable
models through WEKA.60 RF is a tree-based MLA,
where both classification and regression could be con-
ducted.59 It is developed based on the bagging tech-
niques. The output is decided through the majority of
obtained vote among all trees. Many researchers
employed RF to predict different welding fea-
tures.61,62 There has been limited implementation of
RF with high energy joining techniques.54 Reduced
Error Pruning Tree (“REPT”) is another tree-based
regression model, where information gain/variance
reduction-based node statistics are used to develop
multiple decision trees.56,63,64 IBk are systematically
analyzed instance-based MLA, which work on the
principle of the k-NN algorithm.56,65 The Euclidean
distance is used to represent the nearest neighbor of
the instances.65 A lazy learner-based nonparametric
statistical method, known to represent a non-linear
problem using piecewise simplification is called the
locally weighted learning (LWL) MLA.56,66,67
Schaal and Atkeson66 observed LWL to be accurate,
fast in convergence and simple to implement.
Results and discussion
This section states and discusses the results of various
MLAs used to predict residual stress in welding from
the process parameters and natural frequency of
vibrations. This noble method of stress estimation
using different MLAs from process parameters and
from the natural frequency of vibrations is expected
to save time, cost and avoid complicated analysis.
This MLA-based modeling is further followed by sta-
tistical tests and Monte-Carlo reliability estimation to
assess and compare the performance of the different
employed MLAs.
Damping effect on the frequency-amplitude plot
and estimation of natural frequency of vibrations
Figure 3 depicts the natural frequency of vibrations
data of the base metal and welds corresponding to
different heat input, extracted from the .m format
file, generated during the experiment (refer to
Figure 2). It also highlights the damping-induced
7
Type Weka default parameters
Model trees regression Number of instances at leaf node ¼ 4
Model trees regression Number of trees ¼ 100
Neural network Kernel: poly kernel; data: normalized
Model trees regression Data fold for pruning ¼ 3
Neural network Learning rate ¼ 0.3, momentum ¼ 0.2
Lazy learners Number on nearest k neighbors ¼ 1
Lazy learners Linear search and Weighting kernel ¼ 0
decay in the amplitude of vibrations, making the mea-
surement of the natural frequencies above mode four
futile.
Performance comparison of the different
employed MLAs
The efficiency of a model could be determined
through Cross-validation ðCVÞ,68,69 where the origi-
nal data set is divided into a finite number of sub-
groups. It may be categorized into Kfold CV,
repeated random sub-sampling validation, leave-
one-out CV etc. The Kfold CV is associated with
the division of the original data set into
Ksubgroups, each having equal number of data.
The training is conducted with ðK  1Þ groups,
while the validation is carried out using the left-out
group. Furthermore, this training and validation of
the model is repeated Ktimes, where all the groups
undergo one-time validation. K has been reported in
literature to be equal to 2, 5, 10 etc.56 Here all the
data are used for training and validation of the
models, for which models are rigorous and the data
undergoes thorough analysis.
Two-fold, five-fold and ten-fold CV are conducted
to compare the performances of the employed MLAs
using the 1000 generated data through R2 ,50 RMSE50
and AAPD3 parameters, as discussed in Tables 4 to 9.
From Tables 4 through 9, it is observed that during
the prediction of different modes of natural frequen-
cies, and residual stress values from the process
parameters, M5P has performed the best. However,
their performances on the prediction of stress from
natural frequencies are found to be relatively worse.
Moreover, SVR is observed to be the second best,
while MLP has come out as the third best MLA for
the present investigation. SVR and MLP have also
performed to be the best and second best, respective-
ly, during the prediction of stress from natural fre-
quency of vibrations. LWL is found to perform the
worst for all the cases discussed above. Based on the
overall performance, it could be concluded that SVR
and MLP have provided the consistently good perfor-
mance throughout the investigation. On the other
hand, the performance of LWL is found to be the
worst throughout the entire study.
8 Proc IMechE Part C: J Mechanical Engineering Science 0(0)

Table 4. Performance comparison of the MLAs used for the prediction of M1.

CV2 CV5 CV10

Model R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD

M5P 1 0.000484 0.000716 1 0.000483 0.000713 1 0.000483 0.000713

RF 0.9964 0.286231 0.682188 0.9974 0.242287 0.576396 0.9976 0.232028 0.544027
SVR 1 0.009427 0.023088 1 0.010089 0.026119 1 0.007994 0.019274
REPTree 0.9792 0.651599 1.580577 0.9834 0.583226 1.44161 0.985 0.55285 1.368072
MLP 0.9999 0.043361 0.105054 1 0.019509 0.031071 1 0.013061 0.018759
Ibk 0.9842 0.568771 1.409398 0.9889 0.476628 1.171701 0.9897 0.459415 1.126025
LWL 0.858 1.647232 4.14271 0.8545 1.66612 4.202389 0.8535 1.671594 4.216104

Table 5. Performance comparison of the MLAs used for the prediction of M2.

CV2 CV5 CV10

Model R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD

M5P 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
RF 0.996 0.899435 0.706351 0.9973 0.740716 0.58632 0.9976 0.693985 0.543492
SVR 1 0.020341 0.017096 1 0.028001 0.023413 1 0.030403 0.026036
REPTree 0.9798 1.934799 1.580214 0.9823 1.811835 1.491712 0.985 1.668477 1.380194
MLP 0.9999 0.129901 0.105885 1 0.057293 0.02845 1 0.039272 0.017803
Ibk 0.9843 1.7079 1.419044 0.9891 1.429219 1.176546 0.9898 1.376421 1.129689
LWL 0.8557 5.00646 4.22023 0.8519 5.065697 4.272987 0.8497 5.102114 4.305113

Table 6. Performance comparison of the MLAs used for the prediction of M3.

CV2 CV5 CV10

Model R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD

M5P 1 0.000208 2.7E05 1 0.000208 2.7E05 1 0.000208 2.7E05

RF 0.9964 1.462866 0.700604 0.9973 1.238677 0.589118 0.9976 1.165223 0.558674
SVR 1 0.059949 0.029907 1 0.0451 0.022215 1 0.050598 0.025324
REPTree 0.9788 3.339586 1.644291 0.9829 2.999162 1.494293 0.9852 2.786638 1.401018
MLP 0.9999 0.217388 0.107413 1 0.093308 0.027154 1 0.066713 0.015992
Ibk 0.9846 2.842317 1.434522 0.9893 2.371226 1.183643 0.9902 2.279294 1.133885
LWL 0.8518 8.52138 4.347431 0.8444 8.714853 4.450298 0.8412 8.794725 4.49261

Table 7. Performance comparison of the MLAs used for the prediction of M4.

CV2 CV5 CV10

Model R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD

M5P 1 0.000515 0.000119 1 0.000515 0.000119 1 0.000515 0.000119

RF 0.9966 2.187755 0.752321 0.9975 1.858167 0.637731 0.9978 1.757084 0.608416
SVR 1 0.091876 0.034675 1 0.083064 0.030451 1 0.074363 0.026801
REPTree 0.9804 4.987111 1.806372 0.9858 4.265692 1.529228 0.9857 4.266706 1.54168
MLP 0.9999 0.30275 0.104254 1 0.05094 0.011515 1 0.099303 0.014334
Ibk 0.985 4.380027 1.587943 0.9896 3.643005 1.304411 0.9905 3.494852 1.246847
LWL 0.8476 13.44292 4.921132 0.8378 13.83685 5.080421 0.8368 13.87375 5.097703

This is so, because SVR had been reported in
the literature to conduct precise estimation of vari-
ous welding features, defects, etc. through minimiza-
tion of the generalization error.33,70,71 It is further
reported to require less time and data than many
other popular algorithms to carry out the necessary
analysis, for which it has been extensively used in the
welding industries.33,34 Similarly, the performance of
MLP is observed to be good, as it is known to work
well with non-linear problems with multiple
Das et al. 9

Table 8. Performance comparison of the MLAs used for the prediction of RSIPP.

CV2 CV5 CV10

Model R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD

M5P 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0
RF 0.9976 1.938552 8.295769 0.9987 1.450146 6.195375 0.9988 1.360858 5.958187
SVR 1 0.085811 0.364202 1 0.075728 0.323214 1 0.075876 0.300209
REPTree 0.9891 3.877683 12.42127 0.9925 3.219821 9.869476 0.9933 3.041123 10.62369
MLP 0.9999 0.368665 1.6975 1 0.230014 0.391683 1 0.026108 0.083302
Ibk 0.9827 4.890254 16.26178 0.9875 4.168887 13.07802 0.9881 4.0596 12.85101
LWL 0.8141 15.34401 60.81951 0.8164 15.24027 60.39057 0.8146 15.30853 60.55263

Table 9. Performance comparison of the MLAs used for the prediction of RSNFV.

CV2 CV5 CV10

Model R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD R2 RMSE AAPD

M5P 0.9543 7.40629 18.60462 0.9753 5.529544 14.68238 0.9788 5.116773 13.24956
RF 0.9884 3.789464 9.263939 0.9928 3.004199 7.542563 0.9936 2.828208 7.088325
SVR 0.9998 0.540194 1.237505 0.9999 0.392773 0.893366 0.9999 0.357712 0.809698
REPTree 0.9647 6.513076 15.61463 0.9766 5.322152 12.64319 0.9797 4.965186 11.87698
MLP 0.9999 0.686883 1.962478 0.9999 0.365657 1.108193 0.9999 0.320473 0.904275
Ibk 0.9905 3.391694 8.244068 0.9937 2.77121 6.792373 0.9944 2.609874 6.431788
LWL 0.8547 12.83416 33.78516 0.8528 12.90151 34.39232 0.8567 12.74401 34.05712

Table 10. Results of one way analysis of variance (ANOVA).

Process parameters Natural frequencies

Source DF SS0 MS F p DF SS0 MS F p

Factor 6 535.19 89.1983 1184.75 0.000 6 329.706 54.951 146.04 0.000

Error 14 1.054 0.0753 14 5.268 0.376
Total 20 536.244 20 334.974

Figure 4. Significance in the difference of various MLAs employed in the present study through Tukey–Kramer multiple comparisons.

interactions.72 On the other hand, Schaal et al.67
stated that LWL was traditionally considered to per-
form inefficiently in high-dimensional spaces.
Moreover, the employed piecewise simplification of
a non-linear problem may have failed to capture the
complexity associated with the present problem.56,66,67
Statistical tests-based comparison of performances
This section determines, if there are significant differ-
ences among the different employed MLAs. At first,
one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is conducted
in Minitab 16 for stress values, predicted through
10 Proc IMechE Part C: J Mechanical Engineering Science 0(0)

process parameters and natural frequencies of vibra- were reported in literature.74,75 Seven models are
tions (refer to Table 10). Here, DF, SS0 , MS, F and p used in the present study, for which a total of 21
represent the degree of freedom, sum of squares, pairwise comparisons is possible. Out of these com-
mean square, ratio of factor MS to error MS and a parisons, only three ð14%Þ (M5P vs. REPTree, RF
probability value used to check the significance of a vs. IBk and SVR vs. MLP during prediction of stress
parameter, respectively. The null hypothesis may be from frequency values and M5P vs. SVR, M5P vs.
rejected because of the observed low p-value (refer to MLP and SVR vs. MLP during the prediction of
Table 10), which suggests that the performance of at the same from welding process parameter) are
least one of the employed MLAs is significantly dif- found to be non-significant, as shown in Figure 4.
ferent. Please note that RMSE values are used to con- Rest of the comparisons (86%) are found to have
duct the statistical tests. significant differences in the performances.
ANOVA is followed by Tukey–Kramer multiple In addition, multiple-comparison and
comparison. It is conducted to check, if the differen- performance-based ranking of the applied MLAs
ces in the performances of the above stated MLAs are are developed employing a CONTROLTEST java
significant or not. (Refer to Figure 4). Moreover, it package.76 Table 11 highlights the overall perform-
helps to identify the pair, where the difference in per- ances of MLAs according to Friedman, Aligned
formance is observed to be not significant. It is carried Friedman and Quade statistical tests. An MLA is
out for a significance level ðaSL Þ of 0.05 and 0.1. The claimed to have superior performance, if it is found
critical values of the studentized Q table, used in the to acquire a low relative rank. From the results, it is
present study, is obtained from the literature.73 The seen that the algorithm SVR has the best perform-
Critical values of the studentized Q table for aSL equal ances according to all the three tests. Moreover,
to 0.1 and 0.05 are found to be equal to 4.267 and SVR is followed by MLP and other MLAs.
4.829, respectively. Similar statistical comparisons However, LWL has the worst performances as per
the tests. In addition, the obtained p-values for the
Table 11. Friedman, aligned Friedman and Quade ranks of the tests (except for the Aligned Friedman) indicate sig-
MLAs. nificant differences in the performances of the MLAs.
Algorithm Friedman Aligned Friedman Quade
Reliability estimation of employed MLAs through
M5P 3.50 21.17 2.43
RF 4.00 20.00 4.00 Monte-Carlo simulations
SVR 2.00 7.67 2.19 Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been applied
REPTree 5.00 29.17 5.00 widely to analyze reliabilities of a variety of systems.77
MLP 2.00 8.00 2.24 It is basically a computational algorithm, which cre-
Ibk 4.50 25.00 5.14
ates several random events and determines the prob-
LWL 7.00 39.50 7.00
p-value 5.72E-04 5.17E-01 1.07E-04 ability of occurrences of a specific condition. In this
study, MCS is used to analyze the reliability of the

Figure 5. Use of Monte-Carlo Simulations to estimate the reliability of the employed MLAs in predicting welding stress from
(a) process parameters and (b) natural frequencies of vibrations.
Das et al.
developed input-output models in terms of the prob-
ability of occurrence ðpoccurrence Þ of the stress values
within the specified ranges.
At first, 10,000 input data are generated using
random number generator. Next, equations (5) and
(6) are used to create the corresponding output stress
values from the welding process parameters and nat-
ural frequencies, respectively. These input-output
data are fed to the trained MLAs to predict the cor-
responding outputs. The MLA predicted outputs
are evaluated through MCS based on the allowed
percentage deviation of 5% with respect to the
output values obtained using the above equations. If
the predicted output is observed to lie in the specified
range, then the scenario is considered to be a success-
ful one. In this way, the probability of occurrence of
such successful cases is determined as follows:
Nsuccess
Poccurrence ¼ (9)
Ntotal
where Nsuccess and Ntotal are the number of successful
scenarios and total number of scenarios, respectively.
Moreover, poccurrence is also determined for several
other allowable percentage deviations, such as
10%; 15%; 20%; 25% and 30%; and the
obtained poccurrence for the different MLAs are given
in Figure 5.
Figure 5(a) shows that the poccurrence obtained for
SVR, MLA and M5P algorithms are close to 1.0 even
within 5% deviations. This suggests the algorithms
to perform better than the rest. On the other hand,
LWL is observed to perform the worst with a
poccurrence of only 0.59 at 30% deviations. Similarly,
SVR and MLP have shown the better prediction abil-
ity, where the deviation is mostly limited to  5%; as
shown in Figure 5(b). Here also, for 30% deviation,
the success rate of LWL is observed to be equal to
0.61. Hence, Figure 5 suggests that the overall pre-
dicted output of the SVR and MLP using artificially
augmented data set are highly accurate and reliable.
On the other hand, the probability of predicting accu-
rate results is observed to have the lowest value
for LWL with the present data set, making it highly
non-reliable. The performances of the rest of the algo-
rithms are observed to lie in between the said algo-
rithms. This overall observation is in line with the
trend stated in ‘Performance comparison of the dif-
ferent employed MLAs’ section.
Conclusion
The conclusions drawn from the present study are as
follows:
1. Machine learning-based predictive models for the
estimation of residual stress of the weld from its
natural frequency of vibrations have been
11
developed and these are found to provide closely
matched results with the experimental ones.
2. M5P has performed well during the prediction of
modes of natural frequencies of vibrations and
welding stress using EBW process parameters as
the inputs. However, its performance during the
prediction of stress from natural frequency of
vibration is relatively worse.
3. The performance of IBk and REPTree are found
to be relatively worse than that of the rest of the
employed algorithms.
4. SVR and MLP have shown consistently good per-
formance throughout the study, while LWL has
performed the worst.
5. One way ANOVA followed by Tukey–Kramer
multiple comparison suggest that the difference in
performances between most of the algorithms is
significant.
6. Friedman, Aligned Friedman and Quade statistical
tests rank SVR to be the best, marginally followed
by MLP, and LWL to be the worst.
7. Results of the Monte-Carlo simulation indicate
SVR and MLP to be consistently reliable models
for stress prediction. On the other hand, LWL is
found to be the least reliable.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with
respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of
this article.
Funding
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial
support for the research, authorship, and/or publication
of this article: This work was supported by ministry of
human resource development.
ORCID iD
DK Pratihar https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8585-5910
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