Title: An Analysis on Forecasting Inflation Rate in the Philippines: A Recurrent Neural Network Method

Approach

Author: Jackie D. Urrutiaa , Mary Rose Gb . Herrerac and Merianne O. Nicolasd

Year Published: April 5, 2021

Abstract: Inflation rate is the proceeding rise within the common level of costs of products and services in
an economy over a certain span of time. In 2018, the Philippines has the highest inflation rate among the
10 South East Asian countries

Link: https://www.proquest.com/docview/2625343859/742B43BA6FA44226PQ/1?accountid=149218

Title: The Mean Reverting Behavior of Inflation in the Philippines

Author: Abraham C. Jr. and  Aileen L.

Year Published: 2021.10.30

Abstract: Central Bank authorities should carefully manage inflation rate uncertainties to
achieve economic growth and development not only in the short-run but also in the long-run.
Since inflation is a key macroeconomic variable, an increased understanding about its
behavior is undoubtedly important. Thus, the paper employs unit root with breakpoints to
examine the mean reverting behavior of inflation rate in the Philippines using monthly data
from 2002 to 2020.  Empirically, the unit root breakpoint innovational and additive outlier tests
favor the stationarity or mean reverting behavior of inflation in the Philippines. The mean
reverting behavior of inflation rate reveals that the monetary policy using inflation targeting
framework has succeeded in reducing chronic inflation persistence in the Philippines. Thus,
this research supports inflation targeting policy that aims to maintain general price level
stability for the Philippine economy's long-term growth and development prospects. 
 
Link: https://koreascience.kr/article/JAKO202127335597020.page 

Title: Investigating the link between remittances and inflation: evidence from the Philippines

Author: John Paolo R. Rivera

Year Published: 26 Aug 2020

Abstract: In this study, we probe whether rising inflation in remittance-recipient economies triggers the
sending of remittances. In evaluating the impact of inflation in the Philippines, we found that increases in
inflation can prompt the sending of more remittances from migrant relatives in the short run. More than the
anticipation of remittances during inflationary periods, it was shown that remittances are not necessarily
inflationary. There are other more dominant internal factors that can stimulate inflationary pressures.
Thus, the usual arguments that remittances contribute to economic instability still warrant further
investigations.

Link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0967828X.2020.1793685

Title:  Inflation in the G7 countries: persistence and structural breaks

Author: Jiranyakul, Komain.

Year Published: October 21, 2020

Abstract: This paper examines the inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus in both inflation targeting
and non-inflation targeting economies in Asia. In addition, quantile regression is employed to
examine the linkages between inflation and inflation uncertainty in nine Asian countries. The
results show that inflation positively causes inflation uncertainty in all economies regardless of
whether economies have implemented inflation targeting or not. In addition, inflation
uncertainty positively causes inflation in most economies.

Link:  https://www.proquest.com/docview/2700012260/5749834E4335473CPQ/6?accountid=149218

Title: External Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Economies: Panel Causality Analysis

Author: Gülcemal, Tuba

Year Published:  (Apr 2022)

Abstract:This paper is conducted to obtain information about the explanation power of GDP,
consumer price index, and trade openness variables on total external debt and the
relationship between these variables for six emerging countries: Argentina, Brazil, Russia,
Turkey, Philippines, and South Africa.In addition, it has been concluded that causality from
the total external debt to the inflation and the total external debt variable is meaningful in
explaining the inflation in the Philippines, South Africa, and Turkey.

Link: https://www.proquest.com/docview/2658311560/fulltext/5749834E4335473CPQ/5?
accountid=149218
Title: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR INFLATION IN THE PHILIPPINES USING MARKOV-
SWITCHING AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS

Author:  Christopher John F. CRUZ

 Claire Dennis S. MAPA

Year Published:  2016-10-20

Abstract: With the adoption of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) of the Inflation Targeting (IT)
framework in 2002, average inflation went down in the past decade from historical average. However, the
BSP’s inflation targets were breached several times since 2002. Against this backdrop, this paper
attempts to develop an early warning system (EWS) model for predicting the occurrence of high inflation
in the Philippines. Episodes of high and low inflation were identified using Markov-switching models. Using
the outcomes of the regime classification, logistic regression models are then estimated with the objective
of quantifying the possibility of the occurrence of high inflation episodes. Empirical results show that the
proposed EWS model has some potential as a complementary tool in the BSP’s monetary policy
formulation based on the in-sample and out-of sample forecasting performance.

Link: https://www.journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/283

Title: Application of Time Series Analysis for Philippines’ Inflation Prediction

Author: Allemar Jhone P. Delima, Maria Tavita Q. Lumintac

Year Published: May 2019

Abstract:This study established appropriate ARIMA(p,d,q) model in forecasting Philippines’ inflation rate
for the years 2018 to 2022 using the univariate historical data of the country’s inflation rates from 1960-
2017. The inflation rate in the Philippines is forecasted to be at 7.05% by the end of 2018 whereas the
highest predicted value is 8.93% in 2022. Using the forecast error criterion, ARIMA(7,0,0) was identified to
be the best fit having a prediction of 4.60% inflation rate in 2018. Looking forward, a 5.21% inflation rate in
the next twelve months is projected. The government may use the results of this research as input and or
a guide to monetary policies and decisions that may help improve the Philippine economic status

Link: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Allemar-Jhone-Delima/publication/
333559369_Application_of_Time_Series_Analysis_for_Philippines'_Inflation_Prediction/links/
5cf3bf584585153c3dad1e82/Application-of-Time-Series-Analysis-for-Philippines-Inflation-Prediction.pdf

Title:Fears of Inflation: What's Going On?

Author: Bird, Graham

Year Published: June 2022

Abstract: Although there are global differences in rates of inflation, a sharp acceleration in
inflation during 2021/22 occurred in most parts of the world. Measurement matters.
Differences exist between headline and core rates of inflation. These reflect the composition
of inflation. This is not the first time in the post-1945 period that inflation has accelerated and
reached a relatively high level. Looking at earlier episodes may help in understanding the
recent acceleration. Accumulated inflation theory also helps in explaining what's going on.
There are a number of factors at work both on the supply side and the demand side, although
their contribution varies across countries. Macroeconomic policy designed to manage
aggregate demand will play a key role in tackling inflation, but supply-side and labour-market
issues are also important. In predicting the future of inflation, the central question is whether
or not a higher rate of inflation becomes embedded in expectations.

Link: https://www.proquest.com/docview/2685588076/D9E5A7073E894B21PQ/9?accountid=149218

Title: Impact of the Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and the Unemployment Rate on the Fertility
Rate of the Philippines

Author: Cruz, J. R. B. D., Dequilla, M. C. M., & Pizarro-Uy, A. C. D.

Year Published: April 16, 2022

Abstract: The research aims to provide a closer look at the relationship between economic factors and the fertility
rate in the Philippines. The economic factors will be based on the models of fertility written by Davis and Blake in
1956. The researchers used the variables of Gross Domestic Product, Female Unemployment Rate, Male
Unemployment Rate, and Inflation Rate as independent variables and saw the relationship of these variables with
the Fertility Rate. The results of the regression analysis show a significant relationship between the variables, with
having a positive relationship between.

Link: https://al-kindipublisher.com/index.php/jefas/article/view/3261

Title: FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF PHILIPPINES INFLATION RATE

Author: Nancy S. Doloriel, Rolly G. Salvaleon, Ariston O. Ronquillo, Baceledes R. Estal

Year Published: 2014

Abstract: Forecasting the movement of the inflation rate is essential in determining

economic growth and stability. This study examined the volatility of Philippine
inflation rate for the past six decades using the concept of fractal analysis as a
basis for forecasting the inflation rates in the next ten years. The study revealed
that despite a mixture of domestic and international problems, an inflation rate of
our country remains to be stable. Moreover, a minimal dwindle in the projected
inflation rate was noted but showed significant unstable result in the fractal
dimension due to unforeseen factors and events that may happen in the future.

Link: https://smrj.sdssu.edu.ph/index.php/SMRJ/article/view/57

Title: Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Author: Mr.Si Guo, Mr.Philippe D Karam, Mr.Jan Vlcek

Year Published: 

Abstract: This paper seeks to decompose inflation pressures in the Philippines following two approaches.
The first approach, a version of the exclusion method, is to track the inflation rates of the "core services"
items (such as haircut and hospital services). The rationale is that the price changes of these items are
more related to domestic factors (such as labor costs) compared with other items, which makes the core
service inflation a better indicator of domestic-demand pressures on inflation. The second approach is
model-based, in which we first construct a semi-structural New Keynesian model that broadly maps 

Link:https://books.google.com.ph/books?
hl=en&lr=&id=iNCsDwAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT8&dq=inflation+in+the+philippines&ots=99tZOCSdZk&sig=
va0l7nXYD4ZKMTab_2fBM5eafP4&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=inflation%20in%20the
%20philippines&f=false

Title: Inflation policy, 2022: Background

Author: JOHNSON, Clark

Year Published: June 2022

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the monetary policy framework has changed since
the introduction of inflation targeting in Thailand. We analyze the changes in the model of
monetary policy and estimate its effects by estimating the demand function for money. We
obtain four results from our analysis. First, changes in the monetary policy framework did not
change the model of the money demand function. Second, the adoption of inflation targeting
policy leads to structural changes. Third, the effects of monetary policy changed with the
adoption of inflation targeting policy. Interest rate elasticity is positive before the framework
change but negative after the policy change. However, its value is weak. Fourth, the interest
rate elasticities of M2 and r are stable and predictable. This is important because the
domestic interest rate, not the exchange rate or the foreign interest rate, controls monetary
policy. It can also be applied with the same money demand function as in advanced
economies.

Link:
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2708815446/abstract/D9E5A7073E894B21PQ/27?accountid=149218

Title: DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN INDIA

Author: Dua, Pami; Goel, Deepika.

Year Published: 
Spring 2021

Abstract:
This paper examines the drivers of overall inflation and its component, food inflation in India
using monthly data from April 1996 to March 2017. The analysis covers both WPI and CPI-IW
measures of inflation along with their component food inflation. The study uses cointegration
approach to identify the determinants of inflation in India. Empirical estimates of the study
show that there is a long-run relationship between inflation and its determinants that include
expected inflation, output gap, rate of growth of money supply, exchange rate, interest rate,
fiscal deficit, minimum support prices, rainfall international oil and food prices. These
determinants also Granger cause both the measures of inflation. The normalised generalised
variance decompositions suggest that determinants of inflation, in descending order of
importance include expected inflation, exchange rate, rate of growth of money supply and
output gap and least variation in them is explained by interest rates. This analysis is found to
be similar for both the measures of inflation. Thus demand factors such as exchange rate,
rate of growth in money supply and output gap explain significant variation

Link: https://www.proquest.com/docview/2526907972/abstract/265754E95476440EPQ/10?
accountid=149218

Title: Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected
ASEAN countries

Author: 
Hem C. Basnet &Kamal P. Upadhyaya

Year Published:  12 Feb 2015

Abstract: This article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output, inflation and the
real exchange rate in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN-
5) using a Structural VAR model. The cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic
variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run. The
impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the ASEAN-5
economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters. The
variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do
not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration.

Link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036846.2015.1011322

Title: The Dynamics Between Monetary Policy Rate and Inflation in the Philippines

Author: Erick John E. Endres

Year Published:  23 May 2020

Abstract: The paper examines the relationship between interest rate and inflation in the Philippines using 204
monthly observations from January 2003 to December 2019. The variables were tested using Vector
Autoregression, Granger Causality, Impulse Response Function, Cholesky Variance Decomposition, Johansen
Cointegration, and Vector Error Correction. The results confirmed the existence of Fisher Effect and a unidirectional
causality function to interest rate from inflation. The immediate response of interest rate to a positive standard
deviation shock to inflation was recorded in the second period and inflation accounts for a periodic average of
4.72% forecast error variance of interest rate in the short run. The empirical analysis also validated the existence of
significant positive short-run and long-run relationship between the two variables.

Link:
https://ijrp.org/paper-detail/1115

Title: Unemployment and Inflation in the Philippines: Systematic Review Without Meta-Analysis (SWiM)

Author: Michelle Manalo

Year Published:  7 Jun 2022

Abstract: This study analyzes the previous literature on the relationship between the unemployment
rate and inflation rate in the Philippines throughout the years. The negative relationship between
unemployment and inflation is known as the Phillips Curve after William Phillips identified the trade-off
relationship between these two variables in 1958. Since then, the Phillips Curve has remained a
significant foundation for macroeconomic management in many countries. The main finding of this
study is that a short-run trade-off exists between employment and inflation; however, in recent years,
the relationship between these two variables has been weakened.
SA NUMBER 2.

2. TIME FRAME

SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER NOVEMBER-JANUARY FEBRUARY-MARCH APRIL-MAY

PLANNING 1, CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER II CHAPTER IV CHAPTER V

CHAPTER III