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Tutorial 5 Correction - Corporate Finance
Tutorial 5 Correction - Corporate Finance
(Fall 2021)
A Firm expects above average growth for the next five years. it establishes the
following facts and forecasts (as of the beginning of August 2013):
- The current market price is $56.18.
- The current dividend is $0.56.
- It forecasts an initial 5-year period of 11% per year earnings and dividend growth.
- It anticipates it can grow 6.5% per year as a mature company, and allows 10
years for the transition to the mature growth period.
- To estimate the required return on equity using the CAPM, it uses an adjusted
beta of 1.2 based on 2 years of weekly observations, an estimated equity risk
premium of 4.2%, and a risk-free rate based on the 20-year Treasury bond yield of
3%.
- It considers any security trading within a band of ±20 percent of her estimate of
intrinsic value to be within a “fair value range.”
1. Estimate the required return on the firm’s stocks using the CAPM. (Use only one
decimal place in stating the result.)
2. Estimate the value of the firm’s stock using a three-stage dividend discount
model with a linearly declining dividend growth rate in Stage 2.
3. Calculate the percentages of the total value represented by the first stage and
by the second and third stages considered as one group.
4. Based on the estimation Judge whether the firm is undervalued or overvalued
Solution 1:
1. The required return on equity is rs = RRF + β.RPM = 3% + 1.2 x 4.2% = 8%.
2.
The first step is to compute the five dividends in Stage 1 and find their present
values at 8%.
The dividends in Stages 2 and 3 can be valued with the H-model, which estimates
their value at the beginning of Stage 2. This value is then discounted back to find the
dividends’ present value at t=0.
The H-model for calculating the value of the Stage 2 and Stage 3 dividends at the
beginning of Stage 2 (t = 5) would be:
D (1 + g L ) D 5 H (g S − g L )
Pˆ 5 = 5 +
rs - g L rs - g L
Here:
gS= 11% ; gL= 6.5% ; rS= 8% and H = 5 (the second stage lasts 2H = 10 years)
D5 = D0 (1+gS)5= 0.56(1.11)5 = $0.9436
Substituting these values into the equation for the H-model gives P5 as:
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0.9436 × 1.065 0.9436 × 5 × (0.11 - 0.065)
Pˆ 5 = +
0.08 - 0.065 0.08 - 0.065
= 66.9979 + 14.1545 = $81.1524
According to the three- stage DDM model, the total firm’s value is $58.27
3.
The present value of the 5 next dividends (D1, D2, D3, D4 and D5) is :
$0.6216/(1.08) + $0.06900/(1.08)2 + … + $0.9436/(1.08)5 = $3.0422. Thus, the first
stage represents $3.0422/$58.2731 = 5.2% of total value.
The second and third stages together represent 100% - 5.2% = 94.8% of total value
(check: $81.1524/(1.08)5 = $55.2310 thus, $55.2310/$58.2731 = 94.8%).
4.
The band the firm is looking at is $58.27 ± 0.20($58.27), which runs from $58.27 +
$11.65 = $69.92 on the upside to $58.27 - $11.65 = $46.62 on the downside.
Because the current price of $56.18 is between $46.62 and $69.92, we would
consider the company to be fairly valued.
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Solution
A. To calculate earnings growth, we can use the formula:
g = (retention rate) × Return On New Investments.
In 2017, BMI retains $4 of its $5 in EPS (since Div2017=$1), for a retention rate of 80% (=4/5), and an
earnings growth rate g2017 of : g2017 = 80% × 15% = 12%.
Thus, EPS2018 = EPS2017 x (1+g2017) = $5.00 × (1.12) = $5.60.
In 2018, BMI retains $4.60 of its $5.60 in EPS (since Div2018=$1), for a retention rate of 82.14% (=4.6/5.6)
and an earnings growth rate g2018 = 82.14% × 15% = 12.32%.
So, EPS2019 = EPS2018 x (1+g2018) = $5.60 × (1.1232) = $6.29.
B. From 2019 on, the firm plans to retain 40% of EPS, for a growth rate of g2019 ∞ = 40% × 15% = 6%.
Total Payouts in 2019 are 60% of EPS2019, or Payouts 2019 = 60% × $6.29 = $3.774.
Thus, the value of the stock at the end of 2018 is, given the 6% future growth rate:
P2018 = Payouts2019/(rs-g) = $3.774/(10% – 6%) = $94.35.
Given the $1 dividend in 2018, and the end of 2018 price ($94.35) we get a share price in 2017 (at the
start of 2018) of :
P2017 = Div2018/(1+rs)1 + P2018/(1+rs)1
= ($1 + 94.35)/1.10 = $86.68
P2017
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Exercise n°3: Comparables Valuation
Part1: EPS and M/B multiple
Suppose that in January 2016, Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP) had EPS of $1.65 and a book value of equity
of $12.05 per share.
a. Using the average P/E multiple in the Table below, estimate KCP’s share price.
b. What range of share prices do you estimate based on the highest and lowest P/E multiples?
c. Using the average price to book value multiple, estimate KCP’s share price.
d. What range of share prices do you estimate based on the highest and lowest price to book value multiples?
Part2: Entreprise value multiples
Suppose that in January 2016, Kenneth Cole Productions had sales of $518 million, EBITDA of $55.6 million,
excess cash of $100 million, $3 million of debt, and 21 million shares outstanding.
a. Using the average enterprise value to sales multiple in the table below, estimate KCP’s share price.
b. What range of share prices do you estimate based on the highest and lowest enterprise value to sales
multiples?
c. Using the average enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, estimate KCP’s share price.
d. What range of share prices do you estimate based on the highest and lowest enterprise value to EBITDA
multiples?
Stock Prices and Multiples for the Footwear Industry, January 2016
Solution:
Part1: EPS and M/B multiple
a. Share price = Average P/E × KCP EPS = 15.01 × $1.65 = $24.77
b. Minimum = 8.66 × $1.65 = $14.29, Maximum = 22.62 × $1.65 = $37.32
c. Share price = Average P/B × KCP Book value PS =2.84 × $12.05 = $34.22
d. Minimum = 1.12 × $12.05 = $13.50, Maximum = 8.11 × $12.05 = $97.73
Part2: Entreprise value multiples
a. Estimated enterprise value for KCP = Average EV/Sales × KCP Sales = 1.06 × $518 million = $549M.
Equity Value = EV – Debt + Cash = $549 – 3 + 100 = $646 million.
Share price = Equity Value / Shares = $646/ 21 = $30.77
b. Minimum : [(0.47 × $518M) – $3M + $100M ]/21M = $16.21
Maximum : [(2.19 × $518M) – $3M + $100M ]/21M = $58.64
c. Estimated enterprise value for KCP = Average EV/EBITDA × KCP EBITDA = 8.49 × $55.6million = $472M.
Share Price = ($472 – 3 + 100)/21 = $27.10
d. Minimum : [6.66 × $55.6M – $3M + $100M ]/21M = $22.25
Maximum : [10.75 × $55.6M) – $3M + $100M ]/21M = $33.08
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Exercise n°4: FCFF Valuation model
A Corporation is a fast-growing supplier of office products. Analysts project the following free cash
flows to the firm (FCFFs) during the next 3 years, after which FCFF is expected to grow at a constant
7% rate. The company’s weighted average cost of capital is WACC = 12%.
Year
1 2 3
Free cash flow ($ millions) −$10 $25 $45
Solution
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Exercise n°5: DDM vs FCFE Model
ABC’s current FCFE is $31,450 million, its last total dividend paid was $22,470. Earnings and
FCFE are expected to grow 17 percent a year over the next three years before stabilizing at
an annual growth rate of 9 percent.
You decide to value ABC by using the DDM and FCFE models. After reviewing ABC’s
financial statements and forecasts related to the new production agreement, you
conclude the following:
ABC will maintain the current payout ratio. Number of shares outstanding is 13,000.
ABC’s beta is 1.25.
The government bond yield is 6 percent, and the market equity risk premium is 5 percent.
A Calculate the value of a share of ABC’s common stock by using the two-stage DDM.
B Calculate the value of a share of ABC’s common stock by using the two-stage FCFE
model.
C You are discussing with a corporate client the possibility of that client acquiring a
70 percent interest in ABC. Discuss whether the DDM or FCFE model is more appropriate for
this client’s valuation purposes.
Solution:
A.
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C. The FCFE model is best for valuing companies for takeovers or in situations that
have a reasonable chance of a change in corporate control. Because controlling
stockholders can change the dividend policy, they are interested in estimating the
maximum residual cash flow after meeting all financial obligations and investment
needs. The DDM is based on the premise that the only cash flows received by
stockholders are dividends. FCFE uses a more expansive definition to measure what a
company can afford to pay out as dividends.
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Exercise n°6: DDM vs RI Model
A company is expected to earn $4.00, $5.00, and $8.00 for the next three years. It will pay annual
dividends of $2.00, $2.50, and $20.50 in each of these years. The last dividend includes a
liquidating payment to shareholders at the end of Year 3 when the trust terminates.
The company’s book value is $8 per share and its required return on equity is 10 percent.
A What is its current value per share according to the dividend discount model?
B Calculate its per-share book value and residual income for each of the next 3 years and use
those results to find the stock’s value using the residual income model.
C Calculate return on equity and use it as an input to the residual income model to calculate the
company’s value.
Solution:
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Exercise n°7: DDM vs RI Model
An analyst is valuing a company and has made the following assumptions:
Book value per share is estimated at $9.62 on 31 December 2017.
EPS will be 22 percent of the beginning book value per share for the next eight years.
Cash dividends paid will be 30 percent of EPS.
At the end of the eight- year period, the market price per share will be three times the book
value per share.
The beta of the company is 0.60, the risk-free rate is 5.00%, and the equity risk premium is 5.50%.
Its current market price is $59.38, which indicates a current P/B of 6.2.
A Prepare a table that shows the beginning and ending book values, net income, and cash
dividends annually for the eight- year period.
B Estimate the residual income and the present value of residual income for the eight years.
C Estimate the value per share using the residual income model.
D Estimate the value per share using the dividend discount model. How does this value compare
with the estimate from the residual income model?
Solution:
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