Eva Rahayu

Introduction
Development Planning

Population data has an

important role

Demography needs to
learn
DEMOGRAPHY, what is that?
 Origin of the word from Greek
 Demos: people or residents
 Grafein: drawing, writing or
description
 so..Demography is…
writing or description of the
population with all its activities
Definition of Demography
 The scientific study of humanpopulation in primary with the respect in
their size, their structure (composition) and their development (changes)
(Multilingual demographic dictionary, 1982 in mantra (2013)

 Demography is study of size, territorial distribution and composition of

the population, change there in and the composition of such changes
which maybe identified as natally, territorial movement and social
mobility. (Phillip M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan in Mantra (2013)
 SO.... DEMOGRAPHY IS The study of:

POPULATION STRUCTURE NUMBER/SIZE, DISTRIBUTION,

POPULATION COMPOSITIONALWAYS CHANGING

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES BIRTH (FERTILITY), DEATH

(MORTALITY) AND POPULATION MIGRATION

 Demographic Benefits
 Plays an important role in development planningthe
more complete and accurate population data is
available easier and more accurate development plans
are made
SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY
Scope of demography (cont)
1. Pure Demographics (pure demography) = formal demographydescribes
or analyzes demographic variables example: the relationship between the
rise and fall of fertility on the demographic structure of an area
2. Population studies are broader than purely demographic studies. In
understanding the structure and process of population in an area, non-
demographic factors are involved, for example: in understanding fertility
trends in an area, it is not only about knowing trends in couples of
childbearing age but also socio-cultural factors in the area
Complex relationship between demographic
variables and non-demographic variables
Yaukey in Mantra (2013)
Kammeyer in Mantra (2013) clarifies the difference between formal demography and
population studies through the difference between the influence variable and the
affected variable.
Study type Independent variabel Dependent Variabel
Formal demography Demography variable Demography variable
 age composition  birth rate
 birth rate  age composition

Population studies Non Demography variable Demography variable

 socuilogical factors  out Migration
ex:social class
 Ekonomic factors :
economic oppotunity
Population studies Demography variable Non Demography variable
 birth rate  food needs
 in Migration  poverty
 mortality rate
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SOURCES

Population census, Registration, Survey

1. Population cencus
 Suatu proses keseluruhan dari pengumpulan, pengolahan, penyajian,
penilaian data penduduk antara lain: ciri-ciri demografi, sosial ekonomi
dan lingkungan hidup semua orang, waktu tertentu, suatu wilayah
tertentu
 An overall process of collecting, processing, presenting, assessing
population data, including: demographic, socio-economic and
environmental characteristics all people, a certain time, a certain area
 UN PROVISIONS CONCERNING MINIMUM
POPULATION INFORMATION AT THE CENCUS
1. Geography and population migration
2. Household
3. Social and demographic characteristics
4. Birth and death
5. Educational characteristics
6. Economic characteristics
2. Population registration
 The process of recording the population which is carried out
independently by residents when there are changes in the population,
births, deaths, mobility, marriages, divorces, job changes that cannot be
captured in the population census
 Conducted by the Ministry of Home Affairs through the local village
government
 EXAMPLE: if a mother gives birthHusband reports the birth to the local
village office
PROBLEMS FACED WITH REGISTRATION...
 Registrationincomplete reporting data
 A baby after being born a few minutes later dies, should be reported
as an event of birth and death not reported
 Late reporting of birth due to waiting for the umbilical cord to
break died not reported
 The distance between the village office and the residents'
housenot reported
 Birth due to pregnancy out of wedlockdisgraceunreported
3.Population survey
 Is the process of recording information about the population based on the
specificity of the field of study more broadly and in depth

 Census and registration only provide population statistics datait does not
provide information about the nature and behavior of local residents
surveymore specific information

 Example: Central Java Population mobility survey

 POPULATION COMPOSITION
A description of the state of the population in an area based
on the special characteristics of the population
 Population composition
1. Biological: Age and gender
2. Social: the social characteristics of the population,
such as education level, health, and marital status
3. Economy: livelihoods, such as groups of farmers,
traders, employees, civil servants, and other groups
4. Geographic: the difference in the area where people
live, for example the difference in the number of
city residents and village residents
1. BIOLOGICAL COMPOSITION: AGE AND
Gender
 Population structure by AGE AND GENDER->most frequently used
 required for planning various government activities: for planning in
the fields of education, health, etc. Data on age is very much needed
for projections: projections of students who will be enrolled in
school (school enrollment), projections of the workforce,
projections of housing needs, projections of food needs etc. .
 Businesses need age and gender analysis for sales planning.
Age and Gender…
 Usually the population based on age and gender is put together in a
table/diagram
 Age is usually grouped with five-year levels, for example the age group 0-4,
5-9 etc
 The composition of the population by age affects the population structure
of the region/country
 # Young age structurepopulation group <15 years, the number is >40%;
>65 years old <10%
 # Old age structure population group <15 years is <40%; age > 65 years
amount 10%
Example of population composition by age and sex
The population pyramid
 A graph of the composition of the
population by age and gender at a
certain time in the form of a
pyramid
1.exspansive
2. konstructive
3. stationary
EXPANSIVE POPULATION
PYRAMID
 Youth/Expansive Pyramid: Pyramid showing
the growth of young age groups. This
indicates a high birth and death rate.
 The Expansive Population Pyramid has the
following characteristics: a. Most of them are
in the group of young people b. The old age
group is few in number c. High infant birth
rate d. High population growth
 Ex: Indonesia in 1950-1990
CONSTRUCTIVE POPULATION PYRAMID
 The population in the youngest group is
few in number
 Birth rate is falling fast, death rate is low
 Example: Japan, Sweden
STATIONARY POPULATION PYRAMID
 The number of people in each age
group is almost the same, except
for certain age groups
 Low birth rate and low death rate
 Examples in developed countries:
USA
2. SOCIAL Composition
 Includes education level, marital status, and other social factors.
 For LEVEL OF EDUCATION, the things to be considered are population
according to reading and writing skill/illiteracy rate, population according
to level of formal education completed, and population according to school
status
Composition of population by school status
and illiteracy rate
Population composition by marital status
Population composition by marital status
3.Economic composition:livelihood
4. Geographical composition: urban&rural
areas
Population Dynamic
Population growth which is a dynamic balance
between forces that increase and forces that
reduce population
Population Growth Components
 Birth (fertility): enhancing factor
 Mortality: reducing factor
 In-migration: enhancing factor
 Out-migration: a reducing factor
Example of Population Growth Calculation
 Dalam bulan Januari 2021 jumlah penduduk Kec X sebesar 214.300 orang;
jumlah kelahiran: 3.165 orang; dan jumlah kematian sebesar 1.912 orang. Pada
tahun itu jumlah migrasi masuk sejumlah 400 orang dan jumlah migrasi keluar
sejumlah 40 orang. Pada bulan Januari 2022 jumlah penduduk Kec X adalah...
 In January 2021 the population of Kec X was 214,300 people; number of births:
3,165 people; and the number of deaths was 1,912 people. In that year the number
of in-migration was 400 people and the number of out-migration was 40 people.
In January 2022 the population of Kec X was...
 Pt= 214.300 + (3.165- 1.912)+(400-40)
= 215.913
Jadi, pada bulan Januari 2022 jumlah penduduk Kec X besarnya 215.913 orang.
Demography Size
 absolute size and relative size (ratio, proportion/percentage, rate)
Vital Transition

 Vital transition condition that describes changes in demographic

parameters, namely fertility, mortality and migration.
 The United Nations (1989) divides the demographic transition into 4
stages (based on birth and death rates), namely:
Population projection
 Population projection is a scientific calculation based on assumptions of
the components of the population growth rate, namely births, deaths, and
displacement-predictions
 example
1. BIRTH (FERTILITY)
 FERTILITY= A WOMEN'S REAL ABILITY TO BORN IS REFLECTED IN
THE NUMBER OF BABIES BORN ALIVE
 LIVE BIRTH EVOLUTION OF THE BABY FROM THE MOTHER'S
WOMEN WITH SIGNS OF LIFE (BREATHING, HEART throbbing,
MOVING, ETC)
 BIRTH WITHOUT ANY SIGNS OF LIFE = STILL BIRTH (AT LEAST 28
WEEKS IN CONTENTS) NOT CONSIDERED AS A BIRTH EVENT /
FERTILITY
 FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY (Davis & Blake
in Mantra, 2013)

INTERCOURSE CONSEPTION
GESTATION & BIRTH

-UMUR MULAI BERHUBUNGAN,

- SELIBAT PERMANEN, - KESUBURAN /KEMANDULAN
BIOLOGIS/TIDAK DISENGAJA
-LAMANYA MASA REPRODUKSI YG - KEMATIAN JANIN KARENA FAKTOR
HILANG KARENA - PENGGUNAAN/TIDAK ALAT
YANG TIDAK DISENGAJA
PERCERAIAN/PERPISAHAN KONTRASEPSI
(KIMIAWI/MEKANIS/CARA LAIN) - KEMATIAN JANIN KARENA FAKTOR
- ABSTINENS SUKARELA YANG DISENGAJA
- KESUBURAN DAN
- ABSTINENS TERPAKSA(IMPOTENSI, KEMANDULAN YANG DISENGAJA
SAKIT), (STERILISASI)
-FREKUENSI INTERCOURSE
UKURAN FERTILITAS
1. CRUDE BIRTH RATE
CBR= B/Pm x 1000
2. GENERAL FERTILITY RATE
GFR= B/Pf (15-49)x 1000
3. AGE SPESIFIK FERTILITY RATE
ASFRi= Bi/Pfi x1000
4. (TOTAL FERTALITY RATE)
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

B
CBR  x K
P
B = Number of Births for 1 year
P = Mid-Year Population
k = Konstanta (1.000)

EXAMPLE: Indonesia's CBR in 1985 was 35the number of live births

per 1000 Indonesian population was 35
Kindness and weakness of CBR
 Kindness: simple, because it only requires information on the number of
births and the population in the middle of the year.
 Weakness : does not separate the male population and female population
who are still small and those who are 50 years old and over
 General Fertility Rate (GFR)/
Angka Kelahiran Umum

B
GFR  f
x k
p 15  49

B = Number of Births for 1 year

Pf (15-49)= Number of female population aged 15-49 in mid-year
 Kindness: more careful than CBR, pays attention to women who
are exposed to risk
 Weaknesses: does not distinguish the risk of giving birth from
various ages
 Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)/Angka Kelahiran Menurut
Kelompok Umur

Bi (jumlah bayi yang dilahirkan oleh perempuan kelompok umur i /number of babies
born to women of age group i)

ASFRi=------ X K (konstanta)
Pfi (jumlah perempuan kel.umur i pada pertengahan tahun ttt/ the number of women
in age group i in the middle of a certain year)

 ASFRi= banyaknya kelahiran pada th ttt per 1000 perempuan kelompok

umur I
 ASFRi= number of births in year ttt per 1000 women in age group i
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)/Angka Kelahiran Menurut
Kelompok Umur
Kindness:
 More accurate than GFR, has been divided by age
 Cohort studies can be carried out
 Can make an analysis of differences in fertility according to various
characteristics of women
 Is the basis for calculating TFR
Weakness:
 Requires detailed data, data is difficult to obtain due to age reportin
errors
Sample of calculation of ASFR
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
7

TFR = 5∑ ASFRi
i =1

 i= kelompok umur (15-19) th s/d (45-49)th

 ASFRi= jumlah kelahiran per 1000 perempuan kel umur (15-19)th s/d
(45-49) th
 Total Fertility Rate adalah jumlah anak yang akan dipunyai seorang
wanita selama masa reproduksinya/ Total Fertility Rate is the number
of children a woman will have during her reproductive life.
Example of TFR
 MORTALITY
 Mati (death) : menghilangnya semua tanda-tanda
kehidupan secara permanen, bisa terjadi setiap saat
setelah kelahiran hidup/ Death: permanent
disappearance of all signs of life, can occur at any
time after live birth
 Mortality
Antimortality Factors:
 The level of public health is high so that the population
is not susceptible to disease
 Adequate health facilities
 Clean and orderly environment
 Religious teachings that forbid suicide
Promortality Factors:
 Lack of public awareness of the importance of health
 Lack of adequate health facilities
 Frequent traffic accidents
 There is a natural disaster that takes lives
 There's a war going on
MORTALITY SIZE
1. TINGKAT KEMATIAN KASAR (CRUDE DEATH RATE)
CDR= D/Pm X 1000
2. TINGKAT KEMATIAN MENURUT UMUR DAN JENIS KELAMIN (AGE
SPESIFIC DEATH RATE)
ASDRi= Di/Pmi X 1000
3. TINGKAT KEMATIAN BAYI (INFANT MORTALITY RATE)
IMR= Do/B x 1000
 Crude Death Rate
 Besarnya kematian yang terjadi pada suatu tahun tertentu untuk setiap 1000
penduduk / The number of deaths that occur in a given year for every 1000
inhabitants
D
 Rumus : CDR   K
P
 Keterangan :
 CDR =Crude Death Rate ( Angka Kematian Kasar)
 D = Jumlah kematian (death) pada tahun tertentu/ Number of deaths in a
certain year
 P = Jumlah Penduduk pada pertengahan tahun tertentu / Total Population
in the middle of a certain year
 K = Bilangan konstan 1000 /Constant number 1000
 Crude Death Rate
 Berguna untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai keadaan kesejahteraan penduduk pada
suatu tahun yang bersangkutan. Apabila dikurangkan dari Angka Kelahiran Kasar (CBR)
akan menjadi dasar perhitungan pertumbuhan penduduk alamiah (Rate of Natural
Increase). /Useful to provide an overview of the welfare state of the population in a given
year. If it is subtracted from the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) it will be the basis for calculating
the natural population growth (Rate of Natural Increase).

 Keterbatasan/weakness
 Ukuran ini dianggap kasar karena tidak memperhitungkan struktur umur penduduk /
This measure is considered rough because it does not take into account the age
structure of the population
 Data kematian sering underestimate/ Death data is often underestimated
 Dalam Sensus Penduduk ataupun Survei, kematian dilaporkan terjadi di waktu lampau
/ In a Population Census or Survey, deaths are reported to have occurred in the past
Angka Kematian Spesifik Menurut Umur/ Age-Specific Mortality Rate

Di (jumlah kematian dalam kel.umur i)

ASDRi=---------------------------- X K (konstanta)
Pi (jumlah penduduk kel.umur i)
Di= jumlah kematian kelompok umur i / number of deaths in age
group i
Pi= jumlah penduduk pada pertengahan tahun pada kelompok umur i/
population at mid-year in age group i
K= konstanta= 1000
 Angka Kematian Spesifik Menurut Umur
Age Specific Death Rate (ASDR)

 Definisi: Banyaknya kematian pada kelompok umur tertentu per 1000

penduduk dalam kelompok umur yang sama./Definition: The number of
deaths in a given age group per 1000 population in the same age group.
 ASDR lebih baik dan rinci dibanding CDR karena melihat kematian pada
kelompok umur tertentu./ASDR is better and more detailed than CDR
because it looks at deaths in certain age groups.
 Angka Kematian Bayi/ Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
 Definisi : banyaknya kematian bayi berusia dibawah satu tahun, per 1000
kelahiran hidup pada satu tahun tertentu.
 Terjadi antara saat setelah bayi lahir sampai bayi belum berusia tepat satu
tahun
 mencerminkan besarnya masalah kesehatan yang bertanggung jawab
langsung terhadap kematian bayi, seperti diare, infeksi saluran pernapasan
dll, tetapi juga mencerminkan tingkat kesehatan ibu
 Definition: the number of deaths of infants under one year of age, per
1000 live births in a given year.
 Occurs between the time after the baby is born until the baby is not
exactly one year old
 reflects the magnitude of health problems that are directly responsible for
infant mortality, such as diarrhea, respiratory infections etc., but also
reflects the level of maternal health
 Angka Kematian Bayi/ Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
 Rumus/ Formula D0 1th
AKB  xK
 LahirHidup
 AKB = Angka Kematian Bayi / Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
 D 0-<1th =Jumlah Kematian Bayi (berumur kurang 1 tahun) pada satu
tahun tertentu di daerah tertentu./The number of infant deaths (under 1
year of age) in a certain year in a certain area.
 ∑lahir hidup = Jumlah Kelahiran Hidup pada satu tahun tertentu di daerah
tertentu/ Number of live births in a given year in a certain area.
 K = 1000
MIGRATION
 population movement with the aim of settling from one place to another
beyond the political and state boundaries or administrative
boundaries/partial boundaries of a country (the time limit is 6 months).
 TyPe OF MIGRATION
 1. In-migration: is the entry of residents into an area of destination
 2. out-migration: the movement of people out of an area
 3. net migration: the difference/selisih between in-migration and out-
migration
 4. gross migration: the number of in-migration and out-migrations
Factors influencing migration
 UKURAN MIGRASI/migration size
1. Angka Mobilitas: proporsi banyknya penduduk yang pindah secara
lokal(mover) dalam suatu jangka waktu tertentu dengan banyaknya
penduduk/ Mobility Rate: the proportion of the population who move locally
(mover) in a certain period of time with the number of residents
Recent demographic trends and public health
Population size, growth, and age structure are all outcomes of variations in demographic
behaviours and all have implications for population health and well-being
 The larger the population higher the burden on the government in facilitating health
factors.
 Population ageing will almost certainly be the predominant demographic issue of the
twenty-first century in nearly all richer and a growing number of poorer countriesThe
strong association between age and risks of health impairment and disability
 Changes in marriage and family patterns also have other public health implications—
>high rates of divorce and non-marital childbearing mean that increasing proportions
of children are spending at least part of their childhood in lone-parent families
 Issues such as international migration, economic and cultural ‘globalization’, and
climate change all have substantial health implications for the rest of the twenty-first
century; all interact with demographic patterns and processes.
Latihan 1
 Pada suatu desa diketahui 35 bayi yang lahir dalam waktu 1 tahun terakhir,
jumlah populasi penduduk desa pada pertengahan tahun adalah 10.000
jiwa, jumlah wanita usia subur pada pertengahan tahun adalah 1000 jiwa.
Berapakah GENERAL FERTILITY RATE pada penduduk desa tersebut?
 In a village it is known that 35 babies were born in the last 1 year, the
population of the village in the middle of the year is 10,000 people, the
number of women of childbearing age in the middle of the year is 1000
people. What is the GENERAL FERTILITY RATE for the villagers?
Latihan 2
Kel Umur Jumlah Perempuan Jumlah Kelahiran

15 -19 9.693 416

20 – 24 9.911 1.139
25 – 29 9.601 1.181
30 – 34 8.876 843
35 – 39 8.268 438
40 – 44 7.216 137
45 – 49 6.079 30

•Berdasarkan tabel di atas, berapakah angka GFR penduduk negara tersebut?

Sumber Pustaka
 Grundy, E and Murphy, M. 2015.Demography and public health. London:
Oxford University Press
 Mantra, I.B. 2013. Demografi umum. Jakarta: Pustaka Pelajar
 Trisnaningsih. 2016. Demografi.Yogyakarta: Media Akademi
ALHAMDULILLAH