EDA–Introduction to

Probability

UC CEA
Lecture
 EDA Introduction
Probability and Statistics
• Textbook:
❖ Introduction to Statistics by Walpole, Ronald E
• References:
❖ Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists by Walpole, Ronald E., et
al.
❖ Elementary Statistics by Sellers, Gene R. and Stephen A. Vardeman.
Use of Probability to solve uncertainties

Increase likelihood of occurrence

0.5 1.0
0
 Experiments
Experiment Experimental Outcome

Toss a coin Head, Tail

Select a part for inspection Defective, non defective

Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase

Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6

Play a football game Win, lose, tie

PROBABILITY
Random Experiment – any process of repetition which results
to basically identical outcomes.
Sample Space, S – the set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment.
Sample Point – any element of a sample space.
Event – a subset of a sample space
PROBABILITY
Operations with Events S
A
1. Union of two events A and B,
denoted by A U B, is the event
containing all the elements that A∩B
belong to A or B or both.

Venn Diagram
2. Intersection of two events A and B, denoted by A ∩ B, is
the event containing all the elements that are common
in A and B.
Operations with Events
3. Mutually exclusive S A
events or disjoint
events, A ∩ B = Φ.
A and B have no
elements in S
common.
B
4. The complement
A
of an event A with Venn Diagram of Mutually
respect to S is the Exclusive Events

set of all elements

A’
of S that are not
in A. Venn Diagram of
Complementary
Events
Probability- tossing of coin
Experimental Outcome
Step 1 Step 2
First Coin Second Coin
(H,H)

(H,T)

(T,H)

(T,T)
Experiment Results
• Tossing a coin
• 𝑆 = 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑, 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙
• Selecting a defective part
• 𝑆 = 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒, 𝑁𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
• The outcome of a die
• 𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6
 Counting Rules, Permutations and
Combinations
• Counting Rules for 2 coins
• 𝑠 = 𝐻, 𝐻 , 𝐻. 𝑇 , 𝑇, 𝐻 , (𝑇, 𝑇)
• Formula would be 𝑛1 = 2 , 𝑛2 = 2 therefore (2)(2) = 4
• If we involve 6 coins, the result will be
• 2 2 2 2 2 (2) = 64
• If we use 2 dies with 6 faces
• 6 6 = 36
 Counting Rules, Permutations and
Combinations
• Counting Rules for 2 coins
• 𝑠 = 𝐻, 𝐻 , 𝐻. 𝑇 , 𝑇, 𝐻 , (𝑇, 𝑇)
• Formula would be 𝑛1 = 2 , 𝑛2 = 2 therefore (2)(2) = 4
• If we involve 6 coins, the result will be
• 2 , 2 2 , 2 2 , 2 = 64
• If we 2 dies with 6 faces
• 6 6 = 36
Combinations
• If we use 2 dies with 6 faces – How many combinations?
• What is the probability of getting a “7”
Combinations –
By definition (0! =1)
Therefore, if a QC inspector selects 2 out of a group of 5 parts
(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
𝑐25 = (52 ) = = 120/12 = 10
(2)((5−2)

Outcomes
 PROBABILITY
4. The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

𝑛! 𝑛
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = =
𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 ! 𝑟
Permutations –
• When order of counting 𝑛 on objects on a larger set of N objects, we use
the Permutation method
𝑁! 5! 120
• 𝑃𝑛𝑁 = 𝑛! (𝑁
𝑛) = = = = 20
(𝑁−𝑛) 3! 6

Outcomes
PROBABILITY
2. Permutation – is an arrangement of all or part of A set of
objects.
a. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken n
at a time is n.
b. The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r
at a time is

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
PROBABILITY
2. Permutation
c. The number of permutations of n distinct objects
arranged in a circle is (n-1).
d. The number of distinct permutations of n things of
which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second kind ….. nk
of the kth kind is

𝑛!
𝑁=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !. . . 𝑛𝑘 !
Combinations of a big lottery – when Order is
not important
Therefore if we consider a lottery ticket with 6 integers from a group of 47

Lottery Observations
Draw 6 out of 47 integers

01 11 21 31 41

02 12 22 32 42

03 13 23 33 03

04 14 24 34 44
?
?
05 15 25 35 45
? ?
06 16 26 36 46
?
?
07 17 27 37 47

08 18 28 38

09 19 29 39

10 20 30 40
Combinations of a big lottery – when Order is
not important
Therefore if we consider a lottery ticket with 6 integers from a group of 47
47!
answer 𝐶647 = 6!(47−6) = 10,737,573

Lottery Observations
Draw 6 out of 47 integers

01 11 21 31 41

02 12 22 32 42

03 13 23 33 03

04 14 24 34 44
?
?
05 15 25 35 45
? ?
06 16 26 36 46
?
?
07 17 27 37 47

08 18 28 38

09 19 29 39

10 20 30 40
 Powerball lottery
• Compute the number of ways the first 5
numbers can be selected from 53 integers
• What is the probability of winning a prize
of $100,000 by matching the numbers on
the 5 white balls?
• What is the probability of winning the
Powerball jackpot – 1 out of 47 integers
Powerball lottery (U.S.)

Powerball Lottery - USA Played 2x a week

COMBINATIONS - Sampling
Ohio , USA Lottery

A lottery ticket purchase of $1 will a participant to select

5 numbers (1-53) and a Powerball number 1- 42

Permutations Powerball Number

Draw 5 out of 53 red balls Draw 1 out of 42 red balls

? ?
? ?
? ?

August 2001 Lottery

Jackpot Prize - $295M - 4 winners
21 Special Prize - $100K - 1st 5 numbers
22 42
The winning numbers were the following
combinations in any order

08 47

17
21
42

22
17 47

08
 Power company expansion project – Kentucky
Power and Light (KP&L)
The company is starting a project to increase the generating capacity in one of its
plants in 2 sequential stages
Given:
1.Design
➢ Similar construction may take from 2,3 or 4 months
2.Construction
➢ Possible construction times for construction stage may take 6,7 and 8 months
Required:
➢Because of the critical need for additional electrical power, the management set a
goal of 10 months for the project.
➢Draw a counting (tabulated data) and Decision Tree Diagram to help the Manager
identify the experimental outcomes
Probability Diagram - for KP& L
PROJECT
Step 1 Step 2
Experimental
Outcome
Total Project
Completion Time
Design Construction
(?, ?) ?
7 mo.
(?, ?) ?

(?, ?) ?
(?, ?)
?
3 mo. 7 mo.
(?, ?)
?
(?, ?)
?
` (?, ?)
?
7 mo.
(?, ?)
?
(?, ?)
?
Table 4.1 KP& L PROJECT –
Tabulated Project Completion – open chart
Completion Time in Months
Stage 1 Design Stage 2 Experimental Total Project
Construction Outcome Completion Time
(sample Point)
Table 4.3 Probability assignment based on Relative Frequency
(experience and judgement)- populated chart
Table 4.2 KP& L PROJECT –Actual Tabulated Results for 40 Projects

Required:
➢Draw a counting modified chart based on given probabilities based on
outcomes of 40 other projects
Combinations – when Order is not important
By definition (0! =1)
If a QC inspector selects 2 out of a group of 5 parts

What is the combination and the Probability if we label each

sample A,B,C,D,E
Combinations – when Order is important
Therefore if a QC inspector selects 2 out of a group of 5
parts

What is the combination and the Probability if we label

each sample A,B,C,D,E?
 Combinations
• When counting 𝑛 objects on a larger set of N objects,
we use the combination method
𝑁!
• 𝑐𝑛𝑁 = (𝑁
𝑛 ) =
𝑛!(𝑁−𝑛)
• Where 𝑁! = 𝑁 𝑁 − 1 𝑁 − 2 … . 2 1
• 𝑛! = 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 𝑛 − 2 … . (2)(1)
• By definition (0! =1)
• Therefore if a QC inspector selects 2 out of a group of
5 parts
(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
• 𝑐25 = 5
(2 ) = = 120/12 = 10
(2)((5−2)
 Powerball lottery - Answers
• Compute the number of ways the first 5 numbers can be selected
53 54 53 52 …..(1)
• 𝑐553 = (53
5 ) = = 2,869,685
(5!)((53−5)
• What is the probability of winning a prize of $100,000 by matching the
numbers on the 5 white balls?
• 1/(2,869,685) =3.48 𝑥 10−7
• What is the probability of winning the Powerball jackpot
• 1/(2,869,685) =3.48 𝑥 10−7 x (1/42) = 1/(120,526,770)
• = 8.29 𝑥 10−9
 Power company expansion project – Kentucky
Power and Light (KP&L)
The company is starting a project to increase the generating capacity in one
of its plants in 2 sequential stages
Given:
1.Design
➢Similar construction may take from 2,3 or 4 months
2.Construction
➢Possible construction times for construction stage may take 6,7 and 8 months
Required:
➢Because of the critical need for additional electrical power, the
management set a goal of 10 months for the project.
➢Draw a counting (tabulated data) and Decision Tree Diagram to help the
Manager identify the experimental outcomes
Probability Diagram - for KP&Experimental
L PROJECT Total Project
Step 1 Step 2 Completion Time
Outcome
Design Construction
(2,6) 8
7 mo.
(2,7) 9

(2,8) 10
(3,6)
9
3 mo. 7 mo.
(3,7)
10
(3,8)
11
` (4,6)
10
7 mo.
(4,7)
11
(4,8)
12
Table 4.3 Probability assignment based on Relative
Frequency (experience and judgement)
Table 4.3 Probability assignment based on
Relative Frequency Method
Sample Point Project Completion Time Probability of Sample Point
(2,6) 8 months P(2,6) =6/40 = 0.15
(2,7) 9 months P(2,7) =6/40 = 0.15
(2,8) 10 months P(2,8) =2/40 = 0.05
(3,6) 9 months P(3,6) =4/40 = 0.10
(3,7) 10 months P(3,7) =8/40 = 0.20
(3,8) 11 months P(3,8) =2/40 = 0.05
(4,6) 10 months P(4,6) =2/40 = 0.05
(4,7) 11 months P(4,7) =4/40 = 0.10
(4,8) 12 months P(4,8) =6/40 = 0.15

Total = 1.00
 Probability with an event
• Let C denote the project is completed in 10 months or less
• C = 2,6 , 2,7 , 2,8 , 3,6 , 3,7 , (4,6)
Let
• 𝐿 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 that the project is completed in less than 10 months
• 𝑀 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 that the project is completed in more than 10 months
• Probability with an event is equal to the sum of all the probabilities of the
sample points of the event
• 𝐿= 2,6 , 2,7 , 2,8 , 3,6
• 𝑀= 3,8 , 4,7 , 4,8
• 𝑃 𝐶 = 𝑃 2,6 + 𝑃 2,7 + 𝑃 2,8 + 𝑃 3,6 + 𝑃 3,7 + 𝑃(4,6)
• 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.15 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.05) = 0.70
• 𝑃 𝐿 = 𝑃 2,6 + 𝑃 2,7 + 𝑃 2,8 + 𝑃 3,6
 Probability with an event
• Probability with an event is equal to the sum of all the probabilities of the sample points of the event
• 𝐿= 2,6 , 2,7 , 2,8 , 3,6
• 𝑀= 3,8 , 4,7 , 4,8
• 𝑃 𝐶 = 𝑃 2,6 + 𝑃 2,7 + 𝑃 2,8 + 𝑃 3,6 + 𝑃 3,7 + 𝑃(4,6)
• 𝑃 𝐶 = 0.15 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.05 = 0.70

• Probabilities of the sample points of the event of less than 10 months

• 𝑃 𝐿 = 𝑃 2,6 + 𝑃 2,7 + 𝑃 3,6
• 𝑃 𝐿 = 0.15 + 0.15 + 0.10 = 0.40

• Probabilities of the sample points of the event of more than 10 months

• 𝑃 𝑀 = 𝑃 3,8 + 𝑃 4,7 + 𝑃 4,8
• 𝑃 𝑀 = 0.05 + 0.10 + 0.15 = 0.30
Complement of an Event (Venn Diagrams)
Sample Space S

𝐴𝐶
Complement of Event A
Event A

• Complement of an event
• 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 )
Union of Events
Sample Space S

𝐴𝐶

Event B
Event A

• Union of events
• 𝐴∪𝐵
Complement of an Event
Sample Space S

𝐴𝐶

Event A Event B

• The intersection events

• 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Mutually Exclusive Events – Addition Law
Sample Space S

𝐴𝐶

Event B
Event A

• Addition Law
• 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)
 Probability problem 1
A small assembly plant has 50 employees. Each worker is expected to complete
assignments on time and in such a way that the assembled product will pass a final
inspection. On occasion, some of the workers fail to meet the performance
standards by completing work late or assembling a defective product. At the end
of the performance evaluation period, the production manager found that 5 of the
50 workers completed the work late, 6 of the workers assembled a defective
product, and 2 of the 50 workers completed the work late and assembled a
defective product.

Let
• 𝐿 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒
• 𝐷 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒
Probability
• The relative frequency information leads to the following
probabilities:
5
•𝑃 𝐿 = = 0.10
50
6
•𝑃 𝐷 = = 0.12
50
2
•𝑃 𝐿 ∩ 𝐷 = = 0.04
50
The manager decided to give a poor performance rating
to either late or defective rating.
• 𝑃 𝐿 ∪ 𝐷 = 𝑃 𝐿 + 𝑃 𝐷 − 𝑃(𝐿 ∩ 𝐷)
• 𝑃 𝐿 ∪ 𝐷 = 0.10 + 0.12 − 0.04 = 0.18
Thus, the calculation tells us that there is a 0.18 probability
that a randomly selected employee received a poor
performance rating.
 Probability 2
A major computer software company study show that 30% of the
employees who left the company within 2 years left primarily because
they were dissatisfied with their salary, 20% left because they were
dissatisfied with their work assignments , and 12% of the former
employees indicated dissatisfaction with both salary and work
assignments. What is the probability that the employee who leaves
within 2 years does so because of dissatisfaction with salary,
dissatisfaction with work assignment or both ?
Let
• 𝑆 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 they were dissatisfied with their salary
• 𝐷 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 they were dissatisfied with their work assignments
 Probability 2
The relative frequency information leads to the following
probabilities:
• 𝑃 𝑆 = 0.30
• 𝑃 𝑊 = 0.20
• 𝑃 𝑆 ∩ 𝑊 = 0.12
The probability that an employee leaves for salary or work
assignment is the following:
• 𝑃 𝑆 ∪ 𝑊 = 𝑃 𝑆 + 𝑃 𝑊 − 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝑊)
• 𝑃 𝑆 ∪ 𝑊 = 0.30 + 0.20 − 0.12 = 0.38

Thus, the calculation tells us that there is a 0.38 probability that

a randomly selected employee leaves for salary or work
assignment reasons.
Problem of conditional probability
• Often, the probability of an event is influenced by whether a related event already
occurred. Suppose we have an event P (A). If we obtain new information and learn
that a related event B already occurred, we want to take advantage of this
information by calculating a new event A the new probability of event A is called a
conditional probability
• We use the notation to note the condition 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 . The notation 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 reads“
the probability of A given B”
 Conditional Probability
Problem No. 3
• A major metropolitan police force in the Eastern United States consists of 1200
officers, 960 men and 240 women. Over the past two years on the police force,
324 of the officers received promotions. The specific breakdown of the
promotions of the police force is as follows:
Men Women Total

Promoted 288 36 324

Not 672 204 876

Promoted
Total 960 240 1200

• After reviewing the promotion records, a committee of female officers raised a

discrimination case on the basis that 288 male officers were promoted and only
36 female officers were promoted. Is the issue raised by the female officers
valid?
Conditional Probability
Let
• 𝑀 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 that the officer is a man
• 𝑊 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 that the officer is a woman
• 𝐴 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 that the officer is promoted
• 𝐴𝑐 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 that the officer is not promoted
Conditional Probability
Dividing the data values from the table:
288
• 𝑃 𝑀∩𝐴 = = 0.24 Probability that a randomly selected officer is a man and is promoted
1200
672
• 𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝐴𝐶 = = 0.56 Probability that a randomly selected officer is a man and is not promoted
1200
36
• 𝑃 𝑊∩𝐴 = = 0.03 Probability that a randomly selected officer is a woman and is promoted
1200
204
• 𝑃 𝑊 ∩ 𝐴𝐶 = = 0.17 Probability that a randomly selected officer is a woman and is not
1200
promoted
Joint Probability and Marginal Probability
Joint Probability

Men (M) Women (W) Total

Promoted (A) 0.24 0.03 0.27

0.56 0.17 0.73

Total 0.80 0.20 1.0

Marginal Probability
 Conditional Probability
288 288/1200 0.24
•𝑃 𝐴𝑀 = = = = 0.30
960 960/1200 0.80
𝑃 𝐴∩𝑀
•𝑃 𝐴𝑀 = = 0.30
𝑃(𝑀)
But
𝑃 𝐴∩𝑊
•𝑃 𝐴𝑊 = = 0.15
𝑃(𝑊)
36 36/1200 0.03
•𝑃 𝐴𝑊 = = = = 0.15
240 240/1200 0.20

What conclusion do you draw ?

• Stats supports the issue raised by the female officers
 Independent Events
Probability of A given B
• 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴)
Probability of B Given A
• 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵)
Multiplication Law
• 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃 𝐴 𝐵

• 𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃 𝐴 𝐵
 Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of B, given A, denoted by
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 is defined by the equation

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = ;if P(A)>0
𝑃 𝐴

❖Two events A and B are independent if and only if:

❖𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = P(B) and P 𝐴 𝐵 = P(A)

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Multiplicative Rule
❖If in an experiment the events A and B can both
occur, then

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 =𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵

❖If A, B, C, D, and E are independent

events, then
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶∩𝐷∩𝐸 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐶 𝑃 𝐷 𝑃 𝐸
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem
1. A random sample of 200 adults are classified below according to sex and the level
of education attained.
Male Female
Elementary 38 45
Secondary 28 50
College 22 17
If a person is picked at random from this group, find the probability that
a. the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education;
b. the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is a female.
Conditional probability
Male Female
Elementary 38 45 83
Secondary 28 50 78
College 22 17 39
88 112 200

Male Female Total Cumulative

Elementary 38 45 83 83 P(E)
Secondary 28 50 78 161 P(S)
College 22 17 39 200 P(C)
88 112 200
Conditional probability
• 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐸) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a male and
Elementary Graduate
• 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a male and
Secondary Graduate
• 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐶) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a male and College
Graduate
• 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐸) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a female and
Elementary Graduate
• 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝑆) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a female and
Secondary Graduate
• 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐶) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a female and
College Graduate
Conditional probability
• 𝑃(𝑀) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a male
• 𝑃(𝐹) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a female
• 𝑃(𝐸) – Probability that randomly selected adult is an Elementary
Graduate
• 𝑃(𝑆) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a Secondary
Graduate
• 𝑃(𝐶) – Probability that randomly selected adult is a College Graduate
Conditional probability
• 𝑃 𝑀 𝑆 – Probability that adult is a male and with secondary education
𝑃 𝑀∩𝐸 +𝑃(𝑀∩𝑆)
•𝑃 𝑀𝑆 =
𝑃(𝑆)
38+28 66
•𝑃 𝑀𝑆 = = = 0.409
83+78 161

• 𝑃 𝐹 𝑆 – Probability that adult is a female and without college education

𝑃(𝐹∩𝐸)+𝑃(𝐹∩𝑆)
•𝑃 𝐹𝑆 =
𝑃(𝑆)
45+50 95
•𝑃 𝐹𝑆 = = = 0.59
83+78 161
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problem
2. In a senior year of a high school graduating class of 100 students, 42 studied
mathematics, 68 studied psychology, 54 studied history, 22 studied both
mathematics and history, 25 studied both mathematics and psychology, 7 studied
history but neither mathematics nor psychology, 10 studied all three subjects, and
8 did not take any of the three. If a student is selected at random, find the
probability that
a. a person enrolled in psychology takes all three subjects;
b. a person not taking psychology is taking both history and mathematics.
 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Math Psychology 8

5 15 18

10

12 25

History
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
8
𝑃(P∪M∪H)+8/100 =𝑃(P)+𝑃(M)+𝑃(H)−𝑃(P∩M)−𝑃(P∩H)−𝑃(M∩H)+𝑃(P∩M∩H)+
100
68 42 54 25 35 22 10 8
𝑃(P∪M∪H)+8/100 = + + − − − + +
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

a. a person enrolled in psychology takes all three subjects;

10
𝑃 𝑃∩𝑀∩𝐻
= 100 = .147
𝑃 𝑃 68
100
b. a person not taking psychology is taking both history and mathematics.

𝑃 𝑀∩𝐻 −𝑃 𝑃∩𝑀∩𝐻
24
100
12 1
BY VENN Diagram = = = 0.5
24 2

12
12
• 𝑃= 100
24 = = .50
24
100
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Sample Problems
3. A real estate agent has 8 master keys to open several new homes. Only 1
master key will open any given house. If 40% of these homes are usually
left unlocked, what is the probability that the real estate agent can get into
a specific home if the agent selects 3 master keys at random before leaving
the office?
4. The probability that a person visiting his dentist will have an X-ray is 0.60;
the probability that a person who has an X-ray will also have a cavity filled
is 0.30; and the probability that a person who has an X-ray and a cavity
filled will also have a tooth extracted is 0.01. What is the probability that a
person visiting his dentist will have an X-ray, a cavity filled, and a tooth
extracted?
Sample problem
5. A town has two fire engines operating independently. The
probability that a specific fire engine is available when needed is
0.95.
a. What is the probability that neither is available when needed?
b. What is the probability that a fire engine is available when
needed?
 Practice Quiz
1. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck and we are told that it is black.
What is the probability that the card is greater than 3 but less than 9?
2. If the probability that Bob will be alive in 60 years is 0.7 and the
probability that Ann will be alive in 60 years is 0.8, what is the
probability that neither will be alive in 60 years?
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem Sample
Let
𝐴1 = 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟 1
𝐴2 = 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟 2
Currently, 65% from the company is purchased from Supplier 1 and rest
from supplier 2
Hence
𝑃 𝐴1 = 0.65
𝑃 𝐴2 = 0.35
Bayes Theorem
A sample of conditional probability
prior probability- initial estimates for specific events of interest.
posterior probability – when a sample, a special report, a product test,
we obtain additional information about the events. Given this new
information, we update the prior probability values by calculating
revised referred to as posterior probabilities. Bayes’ Theorem provides
a means for making these probability calculations.
Bayes Theorem
Probability Revision using Bayes’ Theorem

Prior New Application of Posterior

probabilities Information Bayes’ Theorem Probabilities
Bayes Theorem
Table 4.6 Historical Data Shows
Percentage Good Parts Percentage Bad Parts
𝑆𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟 1 0.98 0.02
𝑆𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑟 2 0.95 0.05

𝑃 𝐺 𝐴1 = 0.98 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 = 0.02
𝑃 𝐺 𝐴2 = 0.95 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 = 0.05
Bayes Theorem
𝑃 𝐺 𝐴1 = 0.98 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 = 0.02
𝑃 𝐺 𝐴2 = 0.95 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 = 0.05
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 = (4.14)
𝑃 𝐵
Referring to the probability Tree
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 = (𝐴1 )𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 (4.15)
To find 𝑃 𝐵 , we note that the event B can occur only in 2 ways
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 and 𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 + 𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 (4.16)
Probability Diagram – Bayes Theorem Experimental
Step 1 Step 2 Outcome
Supplier Condition

𝐺 (𝐴1 , 𝐺)

𝐵
𝐴1
(𝐴1 , 𝐵)

𝐴2

𝐺 ` (𝐴2 , 𝐺)

𝐵
(𝐴2 , 𝐺)
Bayes Theorem
𝑃 𝐴1 , 𝐺 = (𝐴1 ∩ 𝐺) = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃 𝐺 𝐴1
𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1
Then
𝑃 𝐴2 , 𝐺 = (𝐴2 ∩ 𝐺) = 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃 𝐺 𝐴2
𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2
Bayes Theorem – 2 Event Case
Substituting (4.15) and (4.16) into equation (4.14)
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵𝐴
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃(𝐴 1)𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 (4.17)
1 1 2 2
𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵𝐴
𝑃 𝐴2 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 + 𝑃(𝐴 2)𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 (4.18)
1 1 2 2

(0.65)(0.02) 0.0130
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 = (0.65)(0.02)+(0.35)(0.05) = = 0.4262 (4.17)
0.0130+0.0175
(0.35)(0.05) 0.0175
𝑃 𝐴2 𝐵 = (0.65)(0.02)+(0.35)(0.05) = = 0.5738 (4.18)
0.0130+0.0175
Probability Diagram – Bayes Theorem
Step 1 Step 2 Probability of Outcome
Supplier Condition

𝑃 𝐺 𝐴1 (𝐴1 ∩ 𝐺) = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃 𝐺 𝐴1 = 0.6370

0.98
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1
𝑃(𝐴1 )
0.02 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 = 0.0130
0.65

𝑃(𝐴2 )

0.35 𝑃 𝐺 𝐴2 ` (𝐴2 ∩ 𝐺) = 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃 𝐺 𝐴2 = 0.3325

0.95
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2
0.05 𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 = 0.0175
 Bayes Theorem
Table 4.6 Historical Data Shows
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Events Prior Probabilities Conditional Joint Probabilities Posterior Probabilities
Probabilities
𝐴𝑖 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑖 𝑷 𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩 𝑷 𝑨𝒊 𝑩
𝐴1 0.65 0.02 0.0130 0.0130ൗ
0.0305 = 0.4262
𝐴2 0.35 0.05 0.0175 0.0175ൗ
0.0305 = 0.5738
𝑷 𝑩 =0.0305 = 1.0000

𝑃 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝐵 =
𝑃 𝐵
Bayes Theorem – using MS Excel

Prior Conditional Joint Posterior

Events
Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
A1 0.65 0.02 0.0130 0.4262
A2 0.35 0.05 0.0175 0.5738
1 0.0305 1.0000
Probability Diagram – Bayes Theorem
Step 1 Step 2 Probability of Outcome
Supplier Condition

𝑃 𝑊 𝐴1 (𝐴1 ∩ 𝑊) = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃 𝑊 𝐴1 = 0.2115

0.45
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1
𝑃(𝐴1 )
0.55 𝑃 𝐴1 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 = 0.2585
0.47

𝑃(𝐴2 )

0.53 𝑃 𝑊 𝐴2 ` (𝐴2 ∩ 𝑊) = 𝑃(𝐴2 )𝑃 𝑊 𝐴2 = 0.2650

0.50
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2
0.50 𝑃 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 = 0.2650