Proxy Wars: Role of External Elements

anraarer/arianIa

Concept of Proxy War

Oy war iswhen
a war instigated by a major power that does not itself participate. A war
results
other face to face. opposing powers use third parties as substitutes for fighting each
A war that results when opposing powers use third parties as
Substitutes for fighting each other
directly. While powers have sometimes used
5VCnments as proxies, violent non-state actors, mercenaries, or other third parties
are more often employed. It is hoped that these groups can strike an opponent
without leading to full-scale war. Proxy wars were common in the Cold War, becausee
wish
wish to clear-armed
fight superpowers (the Soviet Union and the United States) did not
t each other directly, since that would have run the risk of escalation to a
nuclear war.

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otticers

Challenges to
Security, Sovereignty & National Interests
National Inte

NOA
Wars
Pakistan Affairs oflicora
Actors of Proxy 3. The resolve and ability of the home NOYA
Psbtcados
of proxy war
inchude: sical presence ol external army to resist the
Actors
military armed rebelli
ellion.
For s u c c e s s , criteria ia 1, 2,
and 4 should be as action by foreign
a
Major Power
Proxies should be as low as possible. high as possible, while countr ntry.
criterion 3
Host Country Effects of Proxy
War
.
Successful Proxy War
Human Rights' violations
A successful proxy war is able to either Violation of International Law
of the host country,
or Worsening of the conflict
Disaffiliate a part of a territory
in the host country. Civil disturbance and chaos
Initiate regime change
Strain relations
between law
he host country and the powers
Elements of Proxy War
Continuously disturbed and order
situation in the abetting proxies
include:
Lack of FDI to the host country host country
Elements of proxy war

the Threat to international peace

who act on behalt of major powers
The Proxies i.e., the ones
also Complicated negotiation process to resolve the
vested interests.
sateguard their important Overthrow of the conflict
Win-win between the major powers
and the proxies. government of the host country
The settlement of the proxy conflicts requires
multi-party negotiations
to the ongoing conflict in the
Past Proxy Wars from Pakistan's Perspective
Major Powers ensure media attention host East Pakistan, 1971
countty
Host country's government must establish the solid evidence of
the In 197 the Mukti Bahini had rebels in
large
invoivemnent of major powers in abetting the proxies. Such evidence shal
of Indian military suppues, aavisOTS, ana
numbers, and received a large volume
be highlighted through media and presented at international1
ora C1ling requisites 1 and 2. Bengali soldiers from the Indian army, thus
includingthe UN, ICJ, etc. However, Pakistan
divisions spread over al parts ot B5angladesh
had about one
corps plus two
to
The external powers extend military, finan ial and moral support to the suppress all uprisings in all parts of
East Pakistan, thereby demonstrating Pakistani resolve to hold to East Pakistan,
on
proxies (i.e., groups, parties, etc.) #hereby fulfilling requisite 3. But then, India launched
Pakistan thereby fulfilling the requirement of requisite 4. military
attack against East
Causes of Proxy War
The seeds of conflict (i.e., political, religious or economic in nature) exist that are Hence, Mukti Bahini resistance would have been resisted
by Pakistani forces till
expioited by the proxies and the major powers. These may include: doomsday, even if it meant that the economy would go to ruin and all East Pakistanis
would die. Therefore, the liberation of Bangladesh would have been
Insurgency within host country without direct Indian military intervention. impossible
Criminal gangs within host country
Easy availability of weapons for wagging armed struggle
Russian Invasion of Afghanistan, 1979
W e a k law enforcement agencies within host Americans waged proxy
country war against the Russians in Afghanistan in 1979. The
Unregulated/underground economy Americans benefitted from a very large umerical rebel force in the shape of the
'Major powers endeavor to safeguard their vital national interests without mujahedeen, supplied effective firepower to them, such as the stinger missiles that
any direct loss of their own manpower succeeded in bringing down the vast majority of the Russian helicopter and air
International Great Game hghting leet, and supplied military and CIA advisors on the ground. These fulfilled
Lack of education and absence of
socio-economic justice requisites and 2 above. Russian resolve began to weaken after American weaponry
to take
Requisite Criteria for Proxy War Degan a
toll on their military, thereby
Continue as a major criterion in the rebel action.
assuring that requisite 3 did not

Folowing four major criteria are important for ascertaining the naly, Pakistani forces were lined up along the entire Durand line to offer physical
of the
on-going proxy war: prospects of succes>
rt o the mujahideen, impart physical training and logistics in execung r e e
1. The numerical size of the rebel a u d stood a s a solid front to dissuade a Russian invasion of Pakistan, while
2. army. st
The volume of external aid and anding as a threat of possibly intervening in Afghanistan should the staton calt
the rebels. military assistance actually proviaea to in this long-drawn battle
that
nat American blessings. This requisite 4 was present
eventually saw success by the rebels.
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 uitorta 1nteres Pakistan Affairs
NUA
Challenges
to Security,
S o v e r e l g l

Baluchistan
Interests Hence,
an armed rebellion
arm in
Baluchistan
ICars4
NOA
Insurgency
in rebels.
P a k i s t a n
that
Pakistan
Pakistan
can easily snrug and
may not tbe rnore than
exist:
forget. So, a bee sting
Proxy War in
B a l u c h i s t a n

for
achicve.
Requisite 1 is hard
proxy
war
to
for Requisite 2
grounds
Brecding deprivation
sense
of
P r o v

Developmental
i n c i a l

backwardness resources Western

powers are
are
forever wary that their
from
natural
The India's hardwa assistance
hardware assistance
of d u e royaltyy
in the
province
hands. Ind
miniscule. Russianmay fall into the wrong
the Russians first
is
Non-payment
bureaucracy
1989, even thou
raised the Baluch assistance stopped in
RAW RAD (Russian Intelligence) help, AmericaLiberation
Non-Baluch top
Army (BLA). But,
Military operation wits n 2002 that RAW helped select. Thirtv trained some 30
Killing of N a w a b
Akbar Bugti
mall number to stir a rebelion. The camp in ten camps. ThisBaluch is still
estroyed by Pakistani 1orces are numbers
an extre
Weak provincial government
of
camps that have been
Corruption
no 100%o, but closer to 50%, in alalso significant, so india's results
ott 100
certainly
likelihood.
tic than
is even m o r e pathetic expected. The deaths and Thus, the proxy war
Missing Persons
are
India, Iran, USA, Afghanistan are 1ighting a proxy war against
insurgency
of Baluch by Taliban and assaults reported for
akistan
situat
Baluchistan are

in the in Pakistani security forces

undeniable proofs of
lndian
involvement
other way und. So, Requisite 2 iis also hard to achieve. rather than the
There are
Baluchistan.
Jadav Requisite 3
Confessions of K a l b o s h a n
to retain Baluchistan is
Pakistani resolve
Documentary evidence
hrm. Pakistan's iS! and
Jecding possible Baluch rebels. Pakistan has military is pro-
Indian weapons
Detection of RDX
systematically eliminated
active of the BLA and other would-be rebels. The will of the
border
me Pakistani political and
Indian
consulates along
Baluchistan to machinery
Baluch squash rebelion is strong; this
thereby indicates that
potential factors: 3 is not adequate for a rebellion to ceed.
Baluchistan is fumed by following uisite
Indian proxy in
with Afghanistan
Requisite 4
Porous borders
agencies (FC, Police, Levies) nossible to use requisite + ln sucn a way that it overcomes all other requisites.
W e a k law enforcement
ie

Poor social indicators Thus, by the Indian army opening its guns all along the 1,850-mile Indo-Pak border,
facilities and stepping up weapon suppiies to the Bauch Liberation Army (BLA), much as it
Lack of education did to the Mukti Bahini, India can hope to tie down Pakistani forces on its Eastern
Poverty front, while military installations in Baluchistan can be torched by rebels and
Smuggling by naval missile ships. For the fourth requisite to
Easy availability of narcotics,
arms and ammunition bombarded Indian gunships and
Pakistan. The British and
materialize in Baluchistan simply dont seem to exist, and Pakistan's will to retain
Baluchistan is the main site
of India's proxy w a r in Baluchistan is strong.
have interest in creating an independent Baluchistan, not to
Americans also strong
interest because Baluchistan is predominantly
Shia, like Iran.
mention lIran's Nuclear Program of Pakistan
initiated clandestine action with the CIA to
The British SIS (or MI6) consequently
American troops displaced the Taliban from
foment rebellion in Baluchistan once The South Asian region
action.
power Afghanistan. Hence requisite 2 went into received an immediate
the Western powers attention of the WePaksitat val eat gias3. esen go
The numerical size of the rebels was relatively small when
two brigades, and international community
started, but that got built to some 4-6,000 rebels, about the size of when India and Pakistan
enough to cause turmoil, blow up army depots, harass military convoys, and launch
to the conducted nuclear their
surprise attacks at military bases. Let's apply the four principal requisites tests in May 1998. The main
otherchoite
proxy war in Baluchistan.
concern of the international
Requisite 1 community was the
introduction of nuclear
First, there arc an insufficient number of Baluch rebels available who fight lor
independence. The total rebel strength is still not estimated at more than 5,00 weapons into the India-
armed fighters
- perhaps as low as 2,000. This number is much too small to sustau Pakistan existing deep nuclear weapons ste
a responsible
an cffective armed
uprising. In comparison, the Pakistani army is 450,000 Sros Ooted traditional hostility. Pakistan, being hostile intentions.
ánd so Pakistan can
veloped nuclear weapons capability
solely to deter India s
very casily suppress any armed rebellion
by 2,000 Ba
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