7 Mean number of serious accidents, u =I per yecar

(a) Poisson random variable, X, represents the number

of serious accidents in I year.
Poisson distribution, X - Po(1)

(b) (i) P(X =0) =

0!
e
= 0.3679

(ii) Let Y represents the mean number of serious

accidents in 2 years.
Then, Y- Po(2)

P(Y 3)
= 1 -

P(Y< 3)
= 1- [P(Y=0) + P(Y= 1) + P(Y= 2)]
e2 e2e 2
= 1 -

t 1! 2!
= 1 -e(1 +2 + 2)
= 1 - Se-2

0.3233

(ii) P(An accident-free year) = P(X = 0)

= el

Let Z be the number of accident-free years

out of 5 years.
Then, Z B(5, el)
P(Less than 2 accident-free years out of
5 years)
P(Z = 0) + P(Z = 1)

- e -e+( a-e'
0.1009 +0.29377
0.3946
(c) P(Less than 2 accident-free years out of 5 years)
= 0.3946> 0.35
Hence, the factory is required to increase the
insurance premium.
7 (a) The standard normal random variable is a
continuous random variable with a mean of 0
and a variance of 1. Z N(0, 1)

(b) (i) Let X be the life span of light bulbs.

X N(950, 50 )
000) =Plz> 1000 950
-

P(X> 1 -

50
= P(Z> 1)
= 0.1587

(ii) P(950 h <X< 950+ h) = 0.99

950 -

h -950< Z < 950 +h - 950

P 50 50
099

P 0 Z 0 )= 0.99
PZ = 0.005
h
PZ 50 = 1 -0.005

0.995

For X N(950, 50 ):
0.99

0.005
0.005

950 950 + h
950 -h
 For Z N(O, 1):

0.99

0.005 0.005

h 0 h
50 50
From the standard normal distribution table,

=2.576
50
h 128.8 hours
(iii) Based on the answer in (b1),
P(X> 1 000) 0.1587
Let Ybe the number of light bulbs with a life
span of more than 1 000 hours.
Y B(8, 0.1587)
P(Y 1) =P(Y= 0) + P(Y = 1)
=C (0.1587)° (0.8413)8
+C, (0.1587)' (0.8413)
= 0.6297
7 (a) 3P¢s 2) =
2P(X >
2)
2[1 - P(X 2)]

2 -

2P(X < 2)
5P(X 2) = 2

PX2) =
(2 k dx =
0

2k

k = (Shown)
 From D: P(X 2)=

P(X> 2) = P(X> 2)
1 1P(X 2)
d

3
10 5
m 2

(b) For x < 0: F(x) = 0

For0 2: F) =Jo d

-
For 2x5: Fl) =Jodt +J2dr

For x>5: Fx) = 0 dr

 The cumulative distribution function is

0 rs 2
F(r) =

2 r 5

(c) Method 1:
Use cumulative distribution function.

P(1Xs 3) =F(3) -

F(1)
-

Method 2:
Use probability density function.

P(1 X 3) = dr+, (2r) dr

=2 1) +

(d) Let m =median Use cumulative

F(m)= P(X m) distribution functiom
= 0,5

PCX2)==04
The median is located between 2 and 5

205
0.5

20