1 A fair six-sided die is rolled.

Find the probability that the first time a 6 comes up is

𝟏
(i) on the first roll =𝟔
5 5 1 𝟐𝟓
(ii) on the third roll = x x =
6 6 6 𝟐𝟏𝟔
1 25 36 25 66 𝟏𝟏
(iii) before the third roll = 6 + 216 = 216 + 216 = 216 = 𝟑𝟔
25 66 𝟏𝟐𝟓
(iv) after the third roll = 1 – 216 – 216 = 𝟐𝟏𝟔

2 A fair three-sided spinner has sectors labelled 1, 2, 3. The spinner is spun until a 3 is scored. The number of spins
required to get a 3 is denoted by X.
𝟏
(i) Find P(X = 1) =
𝟑
2 1 𝟏𝟔
(ii) Find P(X = 5) = ( )4 x =
3 3 𝟐𝟒𝟑
2 1 0 𝟑𝟐
(iii) Find P(X > 5) = ( 3 )5 x (3) = 𝟐𝟒𝟑

3 A five-sided spinner has sectors labelled 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. It is spun repeatedly and every time all the numbers are
equally likely to come up when it is spun.
1 4
(i) Find the probability that  P (2) = 5 ; P (Not 2) = 5

4 𝟐𝟓𝟔
(a) on the first four spins it does not come up 2 = ( )4 =
5 𝟔𝟐𝟓

256 𝟑𝟔𝟗
(b) it comes up 2 before the fifth spin CP = 1 – 625 = 𝟔𝟐𝟓

4 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒
(c) on the first five spins it does not come up 2 = (5)5 = 𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓

4 1 𝟐𝟓𝟔
(d) the first time it comes up 2 is on the fifth spin = (5)4 x 5 = 𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓

(ii) Find which three of your answers to part (i) add to 1 and explain why.

Cover all possible outcome

4 Two fair six – sided dice are rolled until a double comes up; that is, until they both show the same number.

(1,1) (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6,6) = 6 from 36

𝟏
(i) What is the probability that on any roll of the dice a double comes up ? 𝟔
1
(ii) Find the expected number of rolls that are needed to obtain the first double. 1 : 6 = 6
5 1 𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓
(iii) What is the probability that the first double comes up on the sixth roll of the dice? ( )5 x =
6 6 𝟒𝟔𝟔𝟓𝟔

5 A game reserve runs safaris where people travel in a Jeep and look out for wild animals. Experience has shown that
on one in four safaris a tiger is seen. The probability of seeing a tiger on any safari is independent of the probability
of seeing one on any other safari. Kamil goes on five safaris.
Find the probability that
3 𝟐𝟒𝟑
(i) he does not see any tigers = ( )5 =
4 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒
243 𝟕𝟖𝟏
(ii) he sees at least one tiger = 1 - 1024 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒
3 1 𝟖𝟏
(iii) the first tiger he sees is on his last safari = (4)4 x 4 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒
(iv) he does not see any tigers on his first three safaris but does on his fourth and fifth safaris.
3 1 𝟐𝟕
= ( ) 3 x ( )2 =
4 4 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒
6 An archer is aiming for the bullseye on a target. The probability of the archer hitting the target on any attempt is
0.2, independent of any other attempt.  HIT = 0.2 , NOT HIT = 0.8
(i) Find the probability that the archer hits the bullseye on her fifth attempt. = 0.2
(ii) Find the probability that the archer hits the bullseye for the first time on her fifth attempt
 NNNNH = 0.84 x 0.2 = 0.08192 = 0.0819
(iii) Find the probability that the archer takes at least 5 attempts to hit the bullseye.
NNNNH , NNNHN , NNHNN , NHNNN , HNNNN  5 X 0.08192 = 0.4096 = 0.410
(iv) Find the mean of the number of attempts it takes for the archer to hit the bullseye. = 5 number
(v) The archer takes n shots at the bullseye. =
Find the smallest value of n for which there is a chance of 50% or more that she will hit the target at least once
NNNH , NNHN , NHNN , HNNN = (0.83 x 0.2) x 4 = 0.1024 x 4 = 0.4096
2 2
NNHH , NHNH , HNNH , HHNN , HNHN , HHNN = (0.8 x 0.2 ) x 6 = 0.1536
HHHN , HHNH , HNHH , NHHH = (0.8 x 0.23) x 4 = 0.0256
HHHH = 0.24 = 0.0016
Total = 0.5904
 4 times shot

7 Fair four-sided dice with faces labeled 1, 2, 3, 4 are rolled, one at a time, until a 4 is scored.
3 1 81
(i) Find the probability that the first 4 is rolled on the fifth attempt.  NNNN4 = ( 4 )4 x 4 = 1024 = 0.0791
(ii) Find the probability that it takes at least six attempts to roll the first 4.
3 1
NNNNN4 , NNNN4N , NNN4NN , NN4NNN , N4NNNN , 4NNNNN = ( 4 )5 x 4 x 6 = 0.356
(iii) Given that a 4 is not rolled in the first six attempts, find the probability that a 4 is rolled within the next two
attempts.
NNNNN4 , NNNN4N , NNN4NN , NN4NNN , N4NNNN
3 1
= ( 4 )5 x 4 x 5 = 0.2966
NNNN44 , NNN4N4 , NN4NN4 , N4NNN4 , NNN44N , NN4N4N , N4NN4N , NN44NN , N4N4NN , N44NNN
3 1
= ( )4 x ( )2 x 10 = 0.1978
4 4
NNN444 , NN4N44 , N4NN44 , NN44N4 , N4N4N4 , N44NN4 , NN444N , N4N44N , N44N4N , N444NN
3 1
= ( )3 x ( )3 x 10 = 0.0659
4 4
NN4444 , N4N444 , N44N44 . N444N4 , N4444N
3 1
= ( )2 x ( )4 x 5 = 0.0110
4 4
Total = (243 x 5 + 81 x 10 + 27 x 10 + 9 x 5) / 4096 =

(iv) Write down the mean number of attempts that it takes to roll a 4.  4

8 In a game show, a player is asked questions one after another until they get one wrong, after which it is the next
player’s turn. The probability that they get a question correct is 0.7, independent of any other question.
(i) Find the probability that the first player is asked a total of six questions.
(ii) Find the probability that the first player is asked at least six questions.
(iii) Find the average number of questions that the first player is asked.
(iv) Find the probability that the first two players are asked a total of five questions.

9 Hamish goes on a five-day salmon fishing holiday. The probability of catching a salmon on any day is 1 3 and that is
independent of what happens on any other day.
(i) What is the probability that he does not catch a salmon?
(ii) What is the probability that he catches his first salmon on the last day of his holiday?
(iii) What is the expectation of the number of days on which he catches a salmon?
(iv) What is the expectation of the number of days on which he does not catch a salmon?
10 In order to start a board game, each player rolls fair six-sided dice, one at a time, until a 6 is obtained. Let X be the
number of goes a player takes to start the game.
(i) Write down the distribution of X.
(ii) Find :
(a) P(X = 4)
(b) P(X < 4)
(c) P(X > 4).
(iii) Given that X = 3, find the probability that the total score on all three of the dice is less than 10.
(iv) The game has two players and they each take turns at rolling the dice.
Find the probability that :
(a) neither player has started within four rolls (two rolls each)
(b) both players have started within four rolls (two rolls each)