THEORY OF PROBABILITY

1. In a pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11?

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 ( 2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 ( 3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 ( 4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 ( 5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 ( 6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

getting a total of 7 = (6,1) , (5,2),(4,3) , ( 3,4) , (2,5) , ( 1 , 6 )

6 1
Probability of getting a total of 7 is ∨
36 6
Getting a total of 11 = ( 6,5) , (5,6)
2 1
Probability of getting a total of 7 is ∨
36 18
1 1 1
Therefore the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 is + =
6 18 18

2. In drawing from a deck of cards, what is the probability of drawing: a) King or Queen; b) a
spade or heart?

1. We have 52 cards in a deck of

BAYES LAW
1. In a certain assembly plant, three machines B1, B2, B3 , make 30% , 45% and 25 % respective
products. It is known from past experiences that 2 % , 3% and 2% of the products made by each
machine respectively are defective. Now supposed that a finished product is randomly selected,
what is the probability that it is defective?
Answer:
Let event A = the product selected is defective.
Let B1 = the product was made by machine B1.
Let B2= the product was made by machine B2.
Let B3 = the product was made by B3.

We have ,
P(A) = P ( B1) * P (A|B1) + P (B2) *P (A|B2) + P(B3)*P(A|B3)
= (0.30) (0.02) + (0.45)(0.03)+ (0.25)(0.02)
= 0.006 + 0.0135+ 0.05
= 0.0245

1. In a certain region of a country , it is known from past experiences that the probability
of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with cancer is 0.05. If the probability of a
doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having the disease is 0.78 , and the
probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease is
0.06, what is the probability that a person is diagnosed as having a cancer?

Let C the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years of age with cancer.

P (C) = 0.05

C’ represents the event that the person does not have a cancer.
P( C’) = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95

Let D be the event that a person is diagnosed with cancer.

Then the probability of a doctor correctly diagnosing a person with cancer as having the
disease:
P ( D|C) = 0.78

The probability of incorrectly diagnosing a person without cancer as having the disease
is 0.06.

* Probability that an adult over 40 years of age is diagnosed as having a cancer

P(D) = P( D|C) * P(C ) + P (D|C’)*P(C’)
= ( 0.78 * 0.05 ) + ( 0.06 * 0.95 )
= 0.096
 2. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at 4 different locations within
the city limits. The radar traps at each location L1, L2 , L3 and L4 are operated at 40% ,
30% , 20% and 30% of the time and if the person who is speeding on his way to work has
probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5 and 0.2 respectively of passing through these locations,
what is the probability that he will receive speeding ticket?

Finding the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket at location L1:

The probability that he will pass through location L1 is 0.2.

To receive a speeding ticket person need to pass through it an time, when radar trap is
operate, so it’s probability 0.4.

So, base on independent of those events joint probability is

𝑃(𝐿1) = 0.2 ∙ 0.4 = 0.08.
𝑃(𝐿2) = 0.1 ∙ 0.3 = 0.03
𝑃(𝐿3) = 0.5 ∙ 0.2 = 0.1
𝑃(𝐿4) = 0.2 ∙ 0.3 = 0.06

Joint probability is the sum of 𝑃 = 𝑃(𝐿1) + 𝑃(𝐿2) + 𝑃(𝐿3) + 𝑃(𝐿4)

So we have,
𝑃 = 0.08 + 0.03 + 0.1 + 0.06 = 0.27
Therefore the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket by passing through these
locations is 0.27.

PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

1. How many dinners are possible consisting of soup , a sandwich , dessert and a drink if
one can select from 4 soups , 3 kinds of sandwiches , 5 desserts , and 4 drinks?
4 * 3 * 5 * 4 = 240
Ans. 240 dinners
2. A box contains 8 red, 3 white and 9 blue balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without
replacement, determine the probability that a) all 3 are red, b) all 3 are white, c) 2 are
red and 1 is blue, d) at least 1 is white, e) 1 of each color is drawn, and f) the balls are
drawn in the order: red, white, blue.

a. C ( 8, 3 ) = 14
C ( 20, 3 ) 285
b. C ( 3, 3 ) = 1___
C ( 20 , 3 ) 1140

c. C ( 8, 2 ) * C ( 9, 1) = 7
C ( 20 , 3 ) 95

d. C (20,3)-

e. C( 8,1)*C(3,1) * C( 9,1)
C ( 20,3)

f. 8 * 3 * 9 = 12
20 19 18 1615

3. How many different ways can 3 red , 4 yellow and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in a string of
Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
n1= 3 red bubs
n2 = 4 yellow bulbs
n3 = 3 blue bulbs
n= number of sockets

= n!____
n 1 + n2 + n3
= 9!______
3! 4 ! 2!
= 1260 ways
 RANDOM9 VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
1. A shipment of eight (8) micro-computers to a retail outlet contains 3 that are defective.
If a school makes a random purchase of 2 of these computers, find the probability
distribution for the number of defectives.
`
`
`