Problem Chosen 2022 Team Control Number

MCM/ICM
E Summary Sheet 2220842

Cut Trees Down or Not?

Summary
As we enter the 21st century, global climate change is increasingly becoming a common challenge
for all mankind. In order to achieve sustainable survival and development, we turn our attention to
forests and their products, which are known as the "lungs of the earth". We examine the relationship
between the two and carbon sequestration, and apply our findings to provide a strategic plan for forest
managers to make the best use of forests.

We conducted a study of 20 forests worldwide, selecting representative indicators and conducting

Regression Analysis. After testing for multicollinearity in the variables, we refined the model and used
Ridge Regression for the analysis. Based on this Carbon Sequestration Model, we proposed a forest
management plan for forest managers to maximize carbon sequestration.

We then introduced more indicators and forests, used the Entropy Weight Method to construct a
secondary comprehensive evaluation indicator model based on three major benefits: ecological, social
and economic, and calculated a composite score for each forest using the TOPSIS Method. We found
that any forest should be deforested appropriately. At the same time, we combined the relationship be-
tween the composite forest score and tree cover and fitted a relationship curve between the two to find
the transition point for different forest management plans. Using our model, forest managers can
achieve the forest management plan with the greatest overall benefit.

Next, we selected the Saihanba forestry site in China as the target of our model and used different
Time Series Analysis to predict the values of the three independent variables and tree cover in Carbon
Sequestration Model one for the next 100 years, using the year in which the forestry site reaches its
maximum composite score as the transition point to calculate its total carbon sequestration and to pro-
pose different management plans before and after the transition point. Finally, we propose an overstep
strategy for the decade when the forest is harvested ten years later than the current time.

Finally, we made a graph of the change in composite score with weight by changing the weights
of each level of indicators determined by the entropy weighting method for sensitivity analysis, and
found that the composite forest score is very robust to changes in the weights of each indicator.

Keywords: Ridge Regression; Entropy Weight Method; TOPSIS; Carbon Sequestration Model;
Forest Management Plan; Time Series Analysis
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Content
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Problem Background and Restatement ............................................................................ 3
1.2 Literature Review............................................................................................................. 3
1.3 Our Work.......................................................................................................................... 4
2 Assumptions and Justifications ....................................................................... 5
3 Notations ........................................................................................................... 5
4 Carbon Sequestration Model .......................................................................... 6
4.1 Data Collection and Pre-processing ................................................................................. 6
4.2 Establishment of Carbon Sequestration Model................................................................ 7
4.3 Ridge Regression Model .................................................................................................. 9
4.4 Forest Management Plan................................................................................................ 11
5 Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Model .................................................. 12
5.1 Identification of Indicators and Data Normalization ..................................................... 12
5.2 Calculate weight by Entropy Weight Method ................................................................ 14
5.3 Forest Score and Arbor Coverage Rate .......................................................................... 15
5.4 Determination of Forest Management Ccope and Excessive Point ............................... 17
6 Application of Our Model.............................................................................. 18
6.1 Calculation of Forest Carbon Sequestration .................................................................. 18
6.2 Best Forest Management Plan ....................................................................................... 21
6.3 Transition Strategy ......................................................................................................... 21
7 Sensitivity Analysis......................................................................................... 22
8 Model Evaluation ........................................................................................... 22
8.1 Strengths ........................................................................................................................ 22
8.2 Weaknesses .................................................................................................................... 23
8.3 Further Discussion ......................................................................................................... 23
9 Conclusion....................................................................................................... 23
10 Article ............................................................................................................ 23
References .......................................................................................................... 25
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1 Introduction
1.1 Problem Background and Restatement
In the context of global warming, the question of how to deal with the growing emissions
of carbon dioxide is a worldwide challenge. On the one hand, we need to take strong measures
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; on the other hand, we need to sequester carbon dioxide
from the atmosphere by other means. Forests and their products, known as the 'lungs of the
earth', are effective in sequestering carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and thus mitigating cli-
mate change.
Forests are not only ecologically effective, but also have economic, social and cultural
benefits for people. The United Nations Strategic Plan for Forests refers to the need to sustain-
ably manage all types of forests and trees outside forests to contribute to sustainable develop-
ment and to provide economic, social, environmental and cultural benefits for present and fu-
ture generations. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an effective forest management strategy
that provides guidelines for forest managers to optimize the overall benefits of forests.
Considering the background information and restricted conditions identified in the prob-
lem statement, we need to solve the following problems:
Find the factors that influence carbon sequestration in forests and their products, develop
a carbon sequestration model and propose a forest management plan for forest managers based
on maximizing carbon sequestration.
Consider the overall value of the forest and establish an optimal plan for managing the
forest based on a balance of multidimensional evaluation indicators.
Apply the developed model to a forest to predict its carbon sequestration and propose the
best way to manage the forest.
Write a newspaper article to the people in the local community to get them to change their
preconceptions and deforest the forest in a reasonable and appropriate manner.

1.2 Literature Review

Many experts and scholars have proposed different methods for calculating forest carbon
sequestration. The Biomass Method is currently the most widely used method, which is calcu-
lated using parameters such as the average carbon content of each organism. However, the
conversion coefficients of this method can only be selected empirically, and precise data are
also difficult to collect, making the accuracy of the measurement poor; the Volume Method is
a carbon estimation method based on forest stock data, and it distinguishes more tree species
than the biomass method in the selection of conversion coefficients, but there are still large
errors; the Biomass Listing Method is a method that combines ecological survey information
and forest census information, but it does not reflect the dynamic effects of seasonal and annual
changes; the Eddy Correlation Method is a method based on meteorology, which allows for the
direct calculation of fluxes between the forest and the atmosphere. The Eddy Covariance
Method is the most straightforward and continuous method, but it is more expensive. The Re-
laxed Eddy Accumulation Method, which directly tracks the exchange of atmospheric CO2
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with the forest, is actually more difficult to operate and the experimental conditions are more
demanding.[1-6]
Although many experts and scholars have carried out a series of studies on the determi-
nation method of forest carbon sinks and achieved good results, it has not been combined with
carbon sequestration of forest products. The importance of forest products as a continuation of
forests and a successor to their carbon sequestration should not be overlooked. Therefore, it is
necessary to establish a carbon sequestration model to propose management strategies for for-
est managers to maximize forest comprehensive benefits.

Figure 1:Literature Review Framwork

1.3 Our Work
In order to determine the factors influencing carbon sequestration and to develop a carbon
sequestration model, we reviewed the relevant literature and selected a few representative in-
dicators from it. After finding the relevant data and pre-processing them, we carried out regres-
sion analysis to investigate the magnitude of the impact of these indicators on carbon seques-
tration. Due to the presence of multicollinearity in the indicators, we modified the model and
used ridge regression to conduct the analysis. This resulted in a multivariate regression model
for carbon sequestration and the resulting optimal forest management plan.
Subsequently, we introduced indicators for the different dimensions of the comprehensive
forest evaluation, used the entropy weighting method to obtain scores for these indicators, and
fitted their relationship with forest tree cover. From this, we proposed management plans for
optimal use of the forest and identified transition points between different management plans.
We then applied the developed model to the Saihanba Forest in China. We extended the
carbon sequestration model to a time series prediction model to predict the carbon dioxide
absorbed by the forest and its products over a 100-year period. From this, we provide the forest
manager with an optimal management plan. At the same time, we performed a sensitivity anal-
ysis by assuming that the best management plan included a 10-year longer deforestation inter-
val than the plan we had proposed, i.e. by varying the parameters in the model. Ultimately we
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proved by testing that the model developed was robust and reliable.
Finally, in order to change the misconception that exists in some people that we should
never cut down any forests, we published a newspaper article. Based on the model we built to
provide forest managers with best management plans, we explained the benefits of proper de-
forestation to different groups, convincing them that it was the best decision for the forest.

Figure 2:Flow chart of our model

2 Assumptions and Justifications

Assumption 1:Without considering the differences between plantations and natural forests.
The two have little difference in carbon sequestration, biodiversity and other indicators.
Assumption 2:Excluding loss of forest products during processing
That is, the carbon content of a certain amount of wood is the same as that of its products.
Because the loss in wood processing is difficult to estimate, this assumption can simplify our
model.
Assumption 3:Prices of the same forest products have not fluctuated in the past 100 years
without considering the impact of inflation.
Assumption 4:It is assumed that no major disasters will occur in forests.
Such as debris flows, volcanic eruptions. Once a similar serious disaster occurs, the impact
on the entire forest ecosystem is devastating, which takes a very long time to recover.
Assumption 5: Suppose the data we collect is accurate.
Our data are derived from official networks of international organizations or Governments
and some research papers.

3 Notations
The key mathematical notations used in this paper are listed in Table 1.
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Table 1:Notations used in this paper

Symbol Description
Carbon sequestration of a forest for one year
One-year yield of recyclable forest products
Areal coverage of forest
One-year volume of forests
Forest tree cover rate
Growth rate of forest trees
Forest fractal height
Stand section area

4 Carbon Sequestration Model

4.1 Data Collection and Pre-processing
4.1.1 Data collection
Adequate data is the most fundamental step in designing a prediction and evaluation sys-
tem. In order to make our model as comprehensive and effective as possible, we selected the
required indicators from 20 representative forests from all continents of the world, such as the
Amazon Forest in South America, the Black Forest in Europe, the Jiuzhaigou Forest in Asia,
the Waipowa Forest in Oceania, and the Haw River Rainforest in North America.
Our data are taken from many official websites or statistical studies such as the World
Bank[7], the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database[8], the official
national database of each country, etc.
4.1.2 Index selection
Firstly, we decomposed carbon sequestration into forest carbon sequestration and forest
product carbon sequestration. Based on the review of relevant background information, we
initially understood which factors have a greater influence on their carbon sequestration, and
thus selected eight explanatory variables, Average Annual Temperature (AAT), Average Annual
Precipitation (AAP), Sunshine During (SD), Forest Area (FA), Forest Growing Stock (FGS),
Average Height (AH), Forest Cover Rate(FCR), and Recoverable Forest Product Value (RFP).

4.1.3 Handling of default values

We collected as much data as we could, but there was still a problem with some of the
data being missing. The usability of the data lies in its completeness and it is therefore neces-
sary to process the missing data appropriately to improve the accuracy and validity of the model.
The methodology for this process is shown below.
(1)Supplementary neighborhood values
For some of the data that were not available, such as sunshine hours, we chose to replace
them with data from the city where the forest is located.
(2)Triple spline interpolation
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As the amount of data was not sufficient to build a reasonable model, we considered in-
terpolation of existing data to supplement the data. The interpolation method chosen was cubic
spline interpolation, as this method is good at maintaining smoothness and continuity of the
data and reduces the amount of information lost.
(3)Time series prediction
In order to ensure that all data are located at the same point in time for cross-sectional
comparisons, we build time series models for the older data that we can obtain and make fore-
casts, from which we obtain the most recent data for their indicators.
4.2 Establishment of Carbon Sequestration Model
In order to propose the most effective forest management plan for sequestering carbon
dioxide, we need to know how much carbon dioxide the forest and its products can sequester
under different conditions. To do this, we perform a multiple regression analysis and construct
a regression equation to derive a formula for calculating carbon sequestration.
4.2.1 Correlation Test
Before building the regression equation and conducting the regression analysis, we need
to conduct a correlation analysis of the relationship between the various characteristic quanti-
ties that affect carbon sequestration. Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient Analysis, we
obtained the following correlation data.

Figure 3:Heat map for correlation coefficient

The correlation coefficient R takes the value of |R|≤1. The more the absolute value of R
is close to 1, the stronger the correlation between the variables; conversely, the weaker the
correlation. The stronger the correlation, the more red or yellow the variable is. The correlation
coefficients of AAT, AAP, SD and CS are -0.774, -0.477 and 0.468 respectively, which are
negative, negative and positive correlations respectively, and their correlations are strong; the
correlation coefficients of FA, FGS, RFP and CS are 0.995, 0.945 and 0.997 respectively, which
are close to 1, and are highly significant positive correlations. selected these three variables to
plot scatter plots.
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50000 50000

40000 40000

30000 30000

20000 20000

10000 10000

0 0
0 50000 100000 150000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Figure 4:scatter plot of three variables

50000
According to the scatter plot, there is a clear
40000 linear relationship between carbon sinks and
30000 FA,FGS,RFP, and a roughly linear trend with other
20000 independent variables. Therefore, the relationship
between the carbon sequestration and variables like
10000
AAT,AAP,SD,FA,FGS,RFP can be analyzed using a
0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
linear regression model.

4.2.2 multiple regression analysis

Accordingly, we develop the following multiple linear regression model.

With independent variables and dependent variables , create a

multiple linear regression equation

(1)

where is an -independent location parameter and is a parame-

ter in the regression equation.
Then, we used SPSS to perform regression analysis and obtained the following results.
Table 2:Analysis of Variance
Nonstandardized Coeffi- Normalization Coeffi-
Standard Er-
cient cient t p VIF F
ror
B Beta

parame-
572.599335 852.2464596 - 0.672 0.55 -
ter

AAT -82.71549011 77.80256313 -0.038 1.063 0.366 7.944

AAP 0.455881925 0.504605969 0.02 0.903 0.433 3.007 F=1039.948

1 0.999
SD -0.178858175 0.50802073 -0.007 0.352 0.748 2.435 P=0.00004606295466333463

FA 0.332071237 0.072101805 0.648 4.606 0.019** 123.556

FGS 0.096421787 0.037894739 0.185 2.544 0.084* 32.866

RFP 0.510865759 0.603805375 0.164 0.846 0.46 234.569

In the table, ***, **, * represent 1%, 5%, 10% level of significance respectively (the same
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to below)
The regression analysis table shows that the F-test parameter is 1039.948, p < 0.001, in-
dicating that there is a significant difference and the F-test passes. Meanwhile, FA and FGS in
the t-test are significant at a confidence level of 90%. Meanwhile, the goodness of fit of the
model is good and can predict carbon sequestration well. However, as the VIF of FA, FGS and
RFP is >10, this indicates that there is a serious problem of multicollinearity among the ex-
planatory variables, and the resulting predicted data will be biased. We therefore considered
using a Ridge Regression Model to remove the effects of multicollinearity.
4.3 Ridge Regression Model
4.3.1 Basic Principle
Ridge regression is a refinement and deepening of the least squares method, an effective
method specifically used for solving the pathological phenomenon of data covariance, and is
uniquely effective for covariance data analysis. It gives up the unbiased advantage of OLS, at
the cost of losing some information and reducing the accuracy of the fit, in exchange for the
stability and reliability of the regression coefficients, which can objectively explain the rela-
tionship between the independent and dependent variables and can be better solved and applied
to practical problems.[9]
The multiple linear regression model can be expressed as:

(2)
where Y is the dependent variable, X is the independent variable (in the form of a multi-
variate matrix), is the regression coefficient and is the error.
If the regression coefficients are estimated according to OLS, then:

(3)
However, if there are multiple co-linearities between the data of the independent variable
X, the value of the determinant is close to zero, the matrix is close to singular,

the matrix is close to irreversible small, and either the regression coefficients cannot be
obtained or the coefficients obtained are unstable and unreliable, not to mention lacking in
interpretation and physical meaning.
The basic idea is to add a diagonal array to the matrix, converting the singular matrix into
a non-singular matrix as far as possible, so that the matrix is as invertible as possible, so that
the regression coefficients can be derived and the stability and reliability of the parameter es-
timates can be improved, and the parameters obtained can more truly reflect objective reality.
At the same time, the regression coefficients are no longer estimated unbiased, which reduces
the accuracy of the fit. Ridge regression is used to solve for the regression coefficients as fol-
lows:
(4)
4.3.2 Ridge regression parameter selection
In the equation, k is the ridge regression parameter. the larger k is, the better the effect of
eliminating covariance, but the lower the fitting accuracy; the smaller k is, the higher the fitting
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accuracy, but the worse the effect of eliminating covariance. Therefore, it is necessary to find
the best balance between the two, so that k can both eliminate the effect of covariance on pa-
rameter estimation and be as small as possible, in order to reduce the fitted equation and im-
prove the fitting accuracy. The complex correlation coefficient is an important indicator of the
accuracy of the fit, which decreases as k increases. k is chosen as the minimum value when the
change in the ridge trajectory becomes stable.

Figure 5:Ridge map

From the ridge map, it can be seen that when the ridge parameter varies from 0 to 0.2, the
value of the regression coefficient of each variable varies greatly, and this abnormal variation
indicates the existence of covariance. According to the variance expansion factor method, it is
known that when the ridge parameter K is greater than 0.146, the value of each regression
coefficient gradually stabilizes and the variation decreases. Therefore, based on the principle
of error minimization, we chose 0.146 as the ridge regression parameter.
4.3.3 Explicitness test
Table 3:F-test
Nonstandardized Coefficient Normalization Coefficient
K=0.146 Standard Error 𝑡 𝑝 𝐹
B Beta

parameter 1448.525 2467.653 - 0.587 0.598

AAT 3.14 10.863 0.14 2.815 0.067*

AAP 0.117 1.105 0.005 0.106 0.922

SD 1.657 1.176 0.064 1.409 0.254 0.994 0.981 78.407(0.002***)

RFP 0.907 0.079 0.291 11.429 0.001***

FA 0.163 0.019 0.319 8.491 0.003***

FGS 0.117 0.025 0.224 4.646 0.019**

We set the significance level at 95% and if the p-value is less than 0.05, it means that the
variable is significant and the model is meaningful. As shown in the table, the model was found
to pass the F-test when the model was tested (F=78.407,p=0.002<0.01). Also, the p<0.05 for
RFP,FA and FGS, which means that they are statistically significant, rejects the original hy-
pothesis, meaning that RFP,FA and FGS would have a significant effect on Y.
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4.3.4 Analysis of regression results

The regression analysis of the three screened indicators, RFP, FA and FGS, resulted in the
following carbon sequestration model.
Table 4:Regression Result
Nonstandardized Coefficient Normalization Coefficient
K=0.066 Standard Error 𝑡 𝑝 𝑅² Ad.R² 𝐹
B Beta

parameter 3.14 4.074 - 0.773 0.469

RFP 1.12 0.054 0.36 20.851 0.000***

0.997 0.996 704.967(0.000***)
FA 0.225 0.014 0.439 15.934 0.000***

FGS 0.099 0.018 0.189 5.601 0.001***

The goodness of fit of the model 𝑅² was 0.997, which is a relatively good performance,
with p < 0.01 for all three variables showing high significance. The model after ridge regression
therefore largely satisfies the requirements.
The regression equation we obtained was:
(5)
From these results, it can be seen that, all else being equal, for every 10,000 RMB increase
in RFP, CS increases by an average of 11,200 ton; for every 1 km2 increase in FA, CS increases
by an average of 0.225 million ton; and for every 10,000 m3 increase in FGS, CS increases by
an average of 0.009 million ton.
4.4 Forest Management Plan
According to the correlation coefficient matrix, there is a strong positive correlation be-
tween the amount of carbon sequestered by the forest and its area, stockpile and value of re-
coverable forest products, therefore, we will give the best management plan for the forest in
terms of area, stockpile and value of recoverable forest products with the amount of carbon
sequestered as the target.
For forest area, using as the initial area of the forest, as the area of the forest
newly planted, as the amount cut in one year, and as the growth rate of the forest, the
area of the forest in year can be calculated from this.
(6)
Based on this formula, forest managers can determine the amount of forest planted and
cut in a given year in order to control the forest area and make the forest sequester the maximum
amount of carbon.
For forest growing stock, it can be determined using the form height table method, using
as the forest fractal height and as the stand section area, to calculate the forest stock.
(7)
According to this formula, forest managers can control the amount of forest stock to max-
imize the amount of carbon sequestered.
For recyclable forest product yields, the amount of carbon sequestered by the forest is
transferred to the product and eventually returned to the forest after treatment, as opposed to
non-recyclable forest products which reduce the amount of carbon sequestered by the forest,
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therefore forest managers should increase the supply of wood for the production of recyclable
products and reduce the supply of wood for non-recyclable products in order to reduce the loss
of carbon sequestered by the forest.

5 Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Model

In the actual management of forests, the amount of carbon sequestered is only one factor
in determining the management strategy, so more indicators need to be considered. In the model,
three categories of indicators - ecological, economic and social - were selected to evaluate the
forest comprehensively, and a relationship between the score and the forest tree cover was fitted,
from which the best management strategy for the forest was determined.
5.1 Identification of indicators and data normalization
5.1.1 Selection of indicators
There are many indicators for evaluating the overall benefits of forests, and we have di-
vided these into three primary indicators - ecological, economic and social - and each primary
indicator contains a number of secondary indicators under it to evaluate the overall benefits of
forests. All indicators are shown in the table below.
Table 5:Selection of Indicators
First Grade Index Second Grade Index Effect
AAT M
AAH M
AP M
ACS P
Ecology
BI P
FFA N
FPA N
AQI P
NFW P
Social IFP P
FTI P
FOV P
Economy
FI N

In the table above, the nature column is "P" for benefit-based indicators, "N" for cost-
based indicators and "M" for interval-based indicators. The classification of the indicator types
will be used as the basis for our data normalization.
Ecological indicators
Annual Carbon Sequestration (ACS) is the total amount of carbon dioxide sequestrated
by a forest in a year. As one of the mainstays of terrestrial ecosystems, the amount of carbon
dioxide fixed in a year by a forest can play a significant role in reducing greenhouse gas emis-
sions. Therefore, we use it as an important ecological indicator.
The Average Annual Temperature(AAT) is the average annual temperature of a forest.
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Because the trees in the forest are constantly absorbing carbon dioxide by photosynthesis, this
makes the forest cooler than adjacent areas. We have chosen 22 to 26 degrees Celsius as the
optimum temperature to standardize the data, with the higher the standardized value the closer
the range.
The Average Annual Humidity (AAH) is the average humidity of the forest. Because of
the low wind speed in the forest, the low turbulence exchange, the transpiration of the trees and
the low temperature, the humidity in the forest is higher than in the adjacent plains. We defined
70% to 80% as the optimum humidity and processed the data.
Annual Precipitation (AP) Forests emit large amounts of water into the atmosphere
through transpiration, which is eventually returned to the ground in the form of precipitation,
so the annual precipitation of a forest can be used as an indicator of its ecological benefits. We
defined 1000mm to 1500mm as the optimum precipitation for the forest and processed the data.
Biodiversity Index (BI) A biodiversity index is a simple numerical expression of the di-
versity of species within a community and is an indicator of the stability of a community or
ecosystem. Here, we use this index to quantify the biodiversity of a forest.
The Air Quality Index (AQI) represents the air quality index. Because forests constantly
absorb polluting gases and release oxygen, the air quality in forests is better than in nearby
areas.
Forest Fire Area (FFA) represents the area of the forest where fires occur during the year.
When forest fires occur, they not only cause serious damage to the forest ecology, but also have
a huge impact on human society.
Forest Pest Area (FPA) is the area of the forest that is affected by pests and diseases in a
year, the same as the area of fires.
Social indicators
The Number of Forestry Workers (NFW) indicates the number of jobs created in a year
by the forest, mainly including jobs for rangers, loggers, etc. It is an important indicator for
evaluating the social benefits of forests.
Average Annual Income of Forestry Practitioners (IFP) represents the annual income of
forestry workers in a given forest. This indicator reflects the standard of living of forestry per-
sonnel and the social value created by the forest.
Forest Tourism Income (FTI) represents the income generated by people who visit the
forest in a year. Forests are often destinations for tourism because of their beautiful scenery
and fresh air, so tourism income from forests can reflect the recreational value they create for
people.
economic indicators
Forestry Output Value (FOV) represents the total industrial value of the forest for one year.
The overall GDP of the forestry industry in a certain region or a country is mainly generated
by the wood processing industry of the forest. Can fully reflect the level of forestry develop-
ment and economic benefits of a forest.
Forestry Investment (FI) represents the total cost of investment in forest management,
deforestation and processing of forest products. The amount of forestry investment is closely
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related to the level of forestry economic development of the forest, and obtaining higher for-
estry economic income with lower investment is the goal of forestry investment.
5.1.2 Data standardization
In order to make our data uniformly reflect the comprehensive development level of for-
ests, we normalize all data so that they are between 0 and 1. For benefit-based indicators, cost-
based indicators and intermediate indicators, their values reflect different meanings. Therefore,
we provide three different data normalization methods.
For efficiency indicators

(8)

For cost indicators

(9)

For the interval type index ( where [ a, b ] is the best interval for the index value )

(10)

5.2 Calculate weight by Entropy Weight Method

Entropy Weight Method is a commonly used objective weighting method. It determines
the weight according to the information entropy of the index. The smaller the information en-
tropy of the data is, the richer the information contained in the index is, and the higher the
weight is. Using Entropy Weight Method to determine the weight can avoid the problem of
excessive subjectivity.[10]
5.2.1 Calculation of secondary index weight
For m secondary indicators in each group, the positive matrix of n evaluation objects is :

(11)

Under each level indicator, the weight of the i forest in the j secondary indicator is :

(12)

For the j secondary index, the calculation formula of information entropy is as follows :

(13)

Finally, we can calculate the weight by the information entropy of each index :
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(14)

The weight of secondary indicators under each primary indicator is as follows :

Table 6:Weight of secondary indicators
First Grade Index Second Grade Index Weight
AAT 0.1425424
AAH 0.0589777
AP 0.136446
ACS 0.5461439
Ecology
BI 0.0286549
FFA 0.0282057
FPA 0.0502297
AQI 0.0087997
NFW 0.2211604
Social IFP 0.5257847
FTI 0.2530549
FOV 0.8774
Economy
FI 0.1226

5.2.2 Calculation of the first-level indicator weight

After calculating the weight of secondary indicators, we use the weighted sum method to
calculate the score of the i forest in the sample under the k first level index :

(15)

According to the calculated by us, the weights of the three first-level indicators are
obtained by using the entropy weight method again :
(16)
5.3 Forest Score and Arbor Coverage Rate
5.3.1 Calculation of forest score by TOPSIS method
After obtaining the weights of all first-level indicators, we use the TOPSIS method to
calculate the comprehensive benefit scores of each forest in the sample.
TOPSIS method ( distance method of superior and inferior solutions ) is a commonly used
evaluation method. According to the original data, it finds out the optimal solution and the
worst solution, calculates the distance between each sample and the optimal solution and the
worst solution, and comprehensively calculates the score according to the distance between
each sample and the optimal solution and the worst solution.
The process of TOPSIS method is as follows :
Standardized primary indicator scores for each forest :
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(17)

Find the maximum and minimum values of the standardized matrix :

(18)

Calculate the distance between the first evaluation object and the maximum and minimum
respectively :

(19)

According to the distance between the first forest and the optimal solution and the worst
solution, the score can be calculated comprehensively :

(20)

5.3.2 Fitting Relationship between Scores and Tree Coverage Rate

According to the score calculated by TOPSIS method, we found that there is a relationship
between the tree coverage rate and the following graph. According to the scatter plot, we fitted
the curve of tree coverage rate and forest comprehensive score :

Figure 6:Fitting curve

The expression of fitting curve is :

(21)

It is not difficult to see that there is a relationship between the two, that is, with the increase
of the coverage rate of forest trees, the forest comprehensive score will gradually increase.
When it rises to the extreme value of 0.079, the forest score will decrease with the increase of
the coverage rate of trees. The explanation for this result is as follows :
1. For climate indicators such as temperature and humidity, within a certain range, the
increase of arbor coating rate can make them constantly close to the optimal range. However,
when the climate indicators reach the optimal situation, their values will no longer change
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greatly with the change of arbor coating rate.

2. Trees are the main force of forest carbon sequestration, and the output value of forestry
and the number of forestry practitioners are mainly determined by the number of trees in the
forest. The value of such indicators will increase with the increase of the coverage rate of trees,
which can indicate that the fitting curve is on the rise before the coverage rate of trees reaches
89.6 %.
3.With the increase of tree coverage rate, forest fires and pests affected area will gradually
rise, and the cost of investment in forest management will also increase, this kind of index and
forest tree coverage rate was negatively correlated, so it can explain when the tree coverage
rate reached 89.6 %, the fitting curve showed a downward trend.
5.4 Determination of forest management scope and excessive point
5.4.1 Forest management scope
Forest resource management is a necessary means to promote forestry economic develop-
ment and give full play to forest ecology and social benefits. Forest resources can be divided
into direct resources and indirect resources. The former is the direct utility of forest in providing
timber and regulating climate, while the latter is mainly indirectly generated by the trees in the
forest after cutting and processing.
As one of the main components of forest, trees create a lot of ecological, economic and
social benefits, and in the actual forest management, trees are also the key object of manage-
ment. Combined with the model we established, the comprehensive score of forest will increase
first and then decrease with the increase of arbor cover rate. Therefore, we believe that the
range of forest management is to control the arbor cover rate, so that its value is maintained
near the extreme point of 89.6 %.
5.4.2 Analysis of deforestation
Trees are the main tree species that are cut down in the process of deforestation, and they
are also the main source of forestry GDP. Forest products produced by trees are an indispensa-
ble part of people ’ s lives. Appropriate deforestation of forests will also accelerate the replace-
ment of old and new trees, which plays an important role in increasing carbon sequestration
and creating economic value. Therefore, we believe that in any forest, trees need to be appro-
priately cut, but for different forests, the amount of cut will be different.
5.4.3 Determination of excessive point of forest management
The over-management point of forest refers to the segmentation point between different
management plans. Based on the fitted curve in the model, we determine the turning point of
the forest comprehensive score with the arbor coverage rate first increases and then decreases.
On both sides of this point, different forest cutting strategies are corresponding to each other.
Therefore, there must be an over-management point between different forest management strat-
egies.
The determination of excessive management points of different forests ( measured by for-
est tree area ) :
(22)

where is the tree area of forest i, and is the excessive point of tree area of
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forest i.
1. When ,the area of trees does not reach the optimum, so the tree planting

area should be increased to achieve the optimum area of the forest.

2. When , the area of trees exceeds the excessive point, so the cutting amount

of trees should be increased to reduce its area to the optimal area of the forest.

6 Application of Our Model

In order to verify the applicability of our model, we selected the Saihanba forest farm
located in northern China, using the model combined with the time series model to predict the
total carbon sequestration in 100 years, and then using the model two to calculate the compre-
hensive score of the Saihanba, and finally combined with its arbor coverage rate to develop a
personalized management plan for it.
Saihanba Forest Farm, located in Hebei Province of China, is the largest artificial mechan-
ical forest farm in China. It was located in a large area of desert before 1962. Since 1962, a
large number of deserters have gone to this area, opening up the tree planting process for 60
years. After decades of unremitting efforts of generations, the forest cover rate of Saihanba
increased from 12 % to 80 %. Today, the ecological environment of Saihanba is still improving.
6.1 Calculation of forest carbon sequestration
To predict the total carbon sequestration of Saihanba in the next 100 years, it is necessary
to know the median values of RFP, FA and FGS in this 100 years. According to the data of
Saihanba Forest Farm from 2002 to 2021, we decided to use the time series model to predict
the values of these three variables and put them into the regression equation to calculate the
total carbon sequestration. For different index data characteristics, the prediction model is also
different.
Total Product Value of Recyclable Forest Products : Holt Model
Holt exponential smoothing method is an advanced linear exponential smoothing method.
The advantage of this method is that it can smooth the two factors of the original sequence with
different smoothing parameters and has great flexibility, so it is widely used in practice. The
results are as follows :
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Figure 7:Time Series Prediction based on RFP

Forest area : exponential smoothing model
Exponential smoothing method is actually a special weighted moving average method,
which emphasizes the influence of recent data and has scalability on the weight given by the
observed values. Different smoothing constants can be selected to adjust the predicted value of
time series. The results are as follows :

Figure 8: Time Series Prediction based on FA

Forest volume : ARIMA ( 0,1,0 ) model
ARIMA model, namely the differential integrated moving average autoregressive model,
is one of the time series prediction and analysis methods. In ARIMA ( p, d, q ), AR is ' auto-
regressive ' and p is the number of autoregressive items ; mA is ' sliding average ', q is the
number of sliding average terms, d is the number of difference. The prediction results are shown
in Figure 9.
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Figure 9: Time Series Prediction based on FGS

Obviously, with the passage of time, the values of each variable are increasing, but the
development of forests will eventually have a limit, and we cannot pursue the increase of car-
bon sequestration in forest management, but consider the maximization of comprehensive ben-
efits of forests. Therefore, we predicted the tree cover rate of Saihanba in time series. Combined
with Model 2, we found that the year when the tree cover rate was the best was 2048, and
through scientific management, the indicators in the future were maintained at the optimal level
to calculate the carbon sequestration in 100 years. The prediction results of tree coverage rate
are as follows:

Figure 10: Time Series Prediction based on ACR

According to the values of various indicators predicted by the time series model and the
regression equation established by Model 1, we can obtain the calculation formula of total
carbon sequestration of Saihanba in the next 100 years :

(23)

Among them, represents the total carbon sequestration of the Saihanba and
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represents the predicted values of each index in the year, respectively.

According to the above formula, we calculate the total carbon sequestration of Saihanba in 100
years is 108.313 million tons.
6.2 Best Forest Management Plan
According to the weight determined by the entropy weight method in Model 2 and the
value of each evaluation index of Saihanba in 2021, we use TOPSIS method to calculate the
comprehensive score of Saihanba, which is 0.27413, less than the highest score in the sample.
At present, the arbor cover rate of Saihanba is about 80 %, which is also lower than the optimal
cover rate. Therefore, we propose a personalized management plan for Saihanba :
1. From the current stage to about 2048, forest managers need to continuously plant new
trees to ensure that the planting area of trees is greater than the cutting area, and continuously
improve the coverage rate of trees.
2.After about 2048, the annual cutting amount of trees is equal to the planting amount,
and the coverage rate of trees in Saihanba is maintained at about 89.66 %, so that it can create
the optimal comprehensive benefit.
When the coverage rate of trees in Saihanba is less than 89.66 %, the forest can 't give full
play to it
Ecological, social and economic benefits, and with the increase of coverage rate of trees,
the comprehensive benefits of forests will continue to increase. However, for trees with too
large tree age, the comprehensive benefits are very low, and they have to be cut, but it must be
ensured that the cutting amount is less than the planting amount.
After the coverage rate of trees reaches 89.66 %, the comprehensive benefits of forests
will decrease with its increase, so the cutting amount and planting amount are equal.
Under this management strategy, it can not only ensure the comprehensive benefits of
forests, improve their carbon sequestration, but also promote employment and economic de-
velopment in deforestation. Therefore, the scheme is the optimal forest management plan.
6.3 transition strategy
If the harvest interval is 10 years later than the existing time, it indicates that the current
forest tree coverage rate is less than the optimal tree coverage rate, and it takes 10 years to
make the forest tree grow to the optimal value, so as to increase the amount of tree cutting to
create more economic value.
Before the transition period of these 10 years, we believe that the following measures
should be taken : the forest should pass smoothly to the new harvest time :
1. Increase the planting of forest trees. On the one hand to continuously improve the cov-
erage of trees, so that the forest as soon as possible to achieve the maximum comprehensive
benefits of the state ; on the other hand to create more forestry jobs to meet the employment
needs of people around the forest.
2.Control the amount of deforestation, overmature forest as the main object of deforesta-
tion. On the one hand to ensure less deforestation than planting, in order to smooth transition
to a new time ; on the other hand, cutting can not be abandoned in order to increase the coverage
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of trees, which leads to the supply gap of forest products is too large to meet the basic needs of
people.

7 Sensitivity Analysis
We take the weight of ecological, social and economic indicators as the object of sensitiv-
ity analysis, let the weight of ecological indicators fluctuate by 0.1 evenly, and the social and
economic indicators fluctuate by 0.05 respectively. The comprehensive benefit score of Sai-
hanba Forest Farm is calculated by using the changed weight of each group, and the following
curve is finally made :

Figure 11:Sensitivity Analysis

It can be seen from the above figure that with the increase in the weight of ecological
indicators, the comprehensive score of forests continues to decrease, indicating that the forest
score is significantly sensitive to the change the index weight.

8 Model Evaluation and Further Discussion

8.1 Strengths
(1) We use ridge regression to calculate the regression equation of carbon sequestration,
which not only avoids the problem of multicollinearity in ordinary linear regression, but also
effectively improves the prediction accuracy.
(2) When selecting indicators, we construct a comprehensive evaluation system from the
ecological, social and economic levels, and use the entropy weight method to objectively cal-
culate the weight, avoiding the problem of too much subjectivity in the process of determining
the weight, and consider the weights of different indicators when using TOPSIS method.
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(3) In view of the different areas of different forests, we adopted the arbor coverage rate
as the basis for forest management, and determined the excessive point. Different management
strategies were adopted on both sides of the excessive point, which effectively avoided the one-
size-fits-all problem in management.
8.2 Weaknesses
(1) In the case of few data of forest comprehensive score and arbor cover rate, the fitting
method is used to calculate the fitting curve of the two, which reduces the goodness of fit. It is
difficult to calculate the value of excessive points only by using this curve.
(2) In the formulation of forest cutting strategy, only from the tree coverage rate, ignoring
the impact of different tree species, different tree age on the comprehensive benefit.
8.3 Further Discussion
(1) Find more forests with a range of indicators, including tree coverage, and add scatter
plots after calculating their comprehensive scores to increase the number of samples to improve
the fitting effect of the fitting curve.
(2) Conduct a comprehensive evaluation of different tree ages and different tree species
to find out their respective over-management points, and integrate all over-management points
to find out the optimal tree coverage and cutting strategies for different forests, so that our
model is more personalized.

9 Conclusion
Combining the two main models in this paper, as long as we get the values of three inde-
pendent variables and all evaluation indexes of forest, we can calculate the carbon sequestration
of any forest and calculate its comprehensive benefit score. According to the relationship be-
tween forest score and tree coverage, we got the optimal forest management plan.
Unlike management plans that only consider forest carbon sequestration, our model com-
bines a large number of forest evaluation indicators, and ultimately gives management strate-
gies that maximize forest comprehensive benefits.

10 Article
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