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Lesson 4 - Case Study Statement
Lesson 4 - Case Study Statement
STUDY LESSON 4: MONOPOLY REGULATION
Rafael Cossent
Rafael.Cossent@iit.comillas.edu
Exercise 1: Calculating the smoothing X factor under a revenue cap regulation
Figure 1 shows a spreadsheet mimicking the one that would be used by a regulator to calculate
the ex‐ante revenue cap for a network monopoly in a regulatory period of 5 years. All the
figures in red are input data.
First the regulatory asset base (RAB) starting in the initial year (year 0) is updated in the
following years taking into account allowed investments (added to the RAB) and depreciation
(subtracted from the RAB). Observe that input data are the initial RAB and the investment
allowed in each year (See rows REGULATORY ASSET BASE).
Observe that annual regulatory depreciation is calculated for every year by taking into account
both existing assets and new investment in years 1 to 5 (see rows REGULATORY
DEPRECIATION).
The rate of return or WACC is set by the regulator. Please note that inflation is not considered
in this exercise. Moreover, this is a pre‐tax WACC, which means that the obtained revenues
take into consideration corporate taxes that the company must pay on the benefits (see row
WACC real pre‐tax).
Then, the regulator would determine the allowed operational costs for each year of the
regulatory period. These costs decrease along the time due efficiency requirements imposed
by the regulator. They are also expressed in real terms, i.e. without inflation (see rows
OPERATIONAL COSTS OPEX)
The total allowed costs are obtained in each year as the sum of the return on assets plus the
annual depreciation plus the allowed OPEX (See rows ALLOWED COSTS).
In this exercise, the smoothed revenue requirements are obtained in such a way that the
allowed revenues in each year (Rt) evolve according to the expression below, where X is
expressed in percentage, and the initial value in year 0, (R0) is known (see row SMOOTHED
REVENUES):
X
Rt Rt 1 (1 )
100
In the previous formula, the inflation index has not been included because this exercise has
been solved considering costs and revenues in real terms.
Finally, it should be remarked that the calculation of the smoothing X factor is made in Excel
with the “goal seek” tool so that the difference between the present value of allowed costs
and the present value of revenues, taking as discount factor the WACC set by the regulator, is
zero (see rows PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS).
The computed X could be interpreted both as the smoothing factor for the average revenues
trajectory or as a total productivity factor, i.e. the average increase in efficiency that is
required to the regulated firm. It can be seen that OPEX decrease every year at a rate of 2%.
Due to relatively moderate investment, CAPEX remuneration is reduced steadily over the
regulatory period, despite an increase in depreciation allowances. As a result the overall total
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productivity factor (or smoothing X factor) is 1.7%. This means that revenues become lower
every year in real terms.
Total allowed costs (Revenue requirement) 54.95 55.35 55.22 55.39 55.58
Questions exercise 1:
In the attached EXCEL spreadsheet the computations shown in Figure 1 are reproduced. Now
let us assume that the network company has requested the regulator to review the previous
figures and implement the following changes in the ex‐ante calculations of revenue
allowances:
a) The regulator decides to reduce the regulatory WACC (real pre‐tax) from 9% to 8%.
b) At the same time, the regulator increases the regulatory life of new investments from
30 to 40 years.
Now answer the following questions using your own words:
1. Compute the X‐factor that would result from implementing the previous changes decided
by the regulator (considering both bullet points “a” and “b”) using the goal seek tool in
excel and explain the reasons behind the observed change in the value of the X factor.
What could be the reasons why the regulator has decided to implement such changes?
What do you think could the position of the regulated company with respect to these
changes?
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2. Now imagine that, in addition to the aforementioned modifications, the initial revenues
(revenues in year 0) were reduced from 58 monetary units to 53 monetary units. Compute
the new X factor that would be obtained and discuss how this change could affect the
evolution of network tariffs over the coming years.
Please note that separate excel spreadsheets (within the same file) should be provided for
both questions.
Exercise 2: Actual rate of return depending on the actual company operation
Figure 2 shows a spreadsheet that illustrates how the actual profitability of a regulated
company during a regulatory period is calculated at the end of a regulatory period when its
revenues had been set ex‐ante by the regulator. Figure 2 presents the economic results
obtained by the regulated company, along the five years of the regulatory period, under the
hypothetical situation that it would perform exactly as it was forecasted by the regulator when
calculating the revenue cap. The changes in the regulatory WACC and life of assets discussed
in the previous exercise have not been considered in the calculations shown in Figure 2.
Again, no inflation has been considered in this example. All figures in red are input data.
It can be seen that the company makes the same investment and incurs in the same
operational costs as it was initially forecasted (see Figure 1), keeping a financial structure of
60% equity and 40% debt. Observe how the value of the WACC (pre‐tax) 9% is computed
taking into account the financial structure of the company (60/40) and the rate of return on
equity (8%), the interest of debt (4%) and the tax rate (35%). This pre‐tax WACC value was the
allowed by the regulator to compute the regulated revenues in each year, see Figure 1. The
balance sheet or income statement is obtained as revenues minus operating expenditure,
depreciation, and payments of the debt interests. Finally, it is checked that the actual rate of
return on equity (post‐tax) coincides with the value allowed by the regulator, i.e. 8%.
The actual rate of return is obtained as the present value of the benefits after taxes divided by
the present value of the equity of the company. This is equal to 8%, which coincides with the
value assumed by the regulator when she calculated the pre‐tax WACC equal to 9%. It should
be noted that the calculation of present value is done by taking as discount factor the
unknown actual rate of return, then the “goal seek” tool of Excel has been used again for this
purpose.
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ACTUAL ASSET BASE & INVESTMENT Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Opening RAB 280.00 285.50 281.47 275.93 274.73
Gross capital expenditure - Investment 25.00 16.00 15.00 20.00 18.00
Depreciation 19.50 20.03 20.53 21.20 21.80
Closing RAB 280.00 285.50 281.47 275.93 274.73 270.93
FINANCIAL STRUCTURE & COST OF CAPITAL Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Equity (%) 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Debt (%) 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%
Rate of return applied to equity (post-tax) 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Rate of return applied to equity (pre-tax) 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3%
Rate of interest on debt (Rdebt) 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
Tax rate on benefits 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
WACC (pre-tax) 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
ACTUAL INCOMES SET BY THE REVENUE CAP Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Actual revenues 57.02 56.05 55.10 54.16 53.24
ACTUAL REMUNERATION OF EQUITY Present value Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Actual equity (AB * Equity (%)) 668.33 169.65 170.09 167.22 165.20 163.70
Actual benefit after taxes 53.53 14.94 14.09 13.32 12.44 11.60
Actual rate of return on equity after taxes (%) 8.0%
Questions exercise 2:
In the attached EXCEL spreadsheet the computations shown in Figure 2 are reproduced. Note
that in this file it is assumed that the changes discussed and described at the end of Exercise 1
are not implemented.
Now imagine that the regulator finally decided to reduce the regulatory WACC to 8% pre‐tax
and increase the regulatory life of assets from 30 to 40 years. The 8% is obtained by
considering a rate of return on equity after taxes of 7% (row 25 in the spreasheet) and a rate of
return on debt before taxes of 3.75% (row 27 in the spreadsheet). Moreover, the regulator
decided to set the initial revenues (revenues in year 0) to 53 monetary units (note that you will
have to update the incomes of the company, i.e. row 235 in the spreadsheet, based on your
calculations for exercise 1 question 2).
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You are asked to compute the actual rate of return on equity after taxes earned by the
network company under the two situations described below and comment on the results.
Could these results be expected? Why?
1. Situation 1: the expenditures of the regulated company, both OPEX and new investments,
are exactly the same as those allowed by the regulator ex‐ante.
2. Situation 2: the new investments made by the company are the ones shown in the table
below (lower than those initially allowed by the regulator).
ACTUAL ASSET BASE & INVESTMENT Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Gross capital expenditure - Investment 20.00 12.00 10.00 16.00 15.00
Instructions
Send your answers to both exercises in a word document. Additionally, attach the
EXCEL spreadsheet file that you have used to calculate your results.
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