Emerging Trends in Dual-Use Space Technologies

Dr. Ali Sarosh

Institute of Avionics & Aeronautics (IAA),
Air University Islamabad

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In March 2022 Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov

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claimed that Russia had used the Kinzhal hypersonic missile to destroy an

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underground weapons depot in Ukraine.

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Technologically Kinzhal has almost all that is needed to make it a hypersonic

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weapon – flying at Mach 10, with a claimed range of nearly 2000km,

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maneuverable and controllable it can be regarded as a quasi-ideal weapon for

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tactical and strategic fronts. While experts do argue that Russian claims are
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somewhat misleading in the strict sense of a hypersonic weapon. Nevertheless,
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between the claims and counter claims on the definition of Kinzhal as
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hypersonic weapons, the one fact unarguable in this regard is the degree of
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unpredictability posed by a fielded hypersonic weapon.

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Earlier in the same year, a much more interesting event was also witnessed.
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Where a GEO satellite had been used for carrying out space debris remediation
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operations. To some experts, this may have even sounded as a prelude to testing
a counter space strategy by a
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major space power, but the

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ultimate result was much more

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pleasant than the one created by

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Kinzhal. That is exactly what the

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effects are of dual-use

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technologies – these may be

destructive and beneficial at the
same time.

In simple words we define dual-use technologies as those that have both

commercial and military applications and includes everything under the

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 technological domains. But here in this session I shall be considering two of the
technological domains namely the hypersonic and the spacecraft operations.

The concept of dual use space technologies dates back to early days of cold war
era. And over the period of seven decades a wide range of space technologies
have seen an evolution from military to civil applications. Listed here are just
few of those many that we come across in the aerospace power domain.
However, since inception the concept dual-use technologies has mostly been

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viewed from a military perspective leading subsequently to civilian

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technologies. The reverse has however not been true for most major

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technological applications. This we believe has relegated hypersonic and space

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operations significance in civilian applications. While commercial satellite

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applications have offset this paradigm significantly nevertheless there is still

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room for evolving strategies like counter space operations for the greater good

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of mankind.

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I start first with duality of hypersonic technologies. Technologically, from the

time of conception, a hypersonic system is envisaged as ‘invincible’ weapons –
a claim that is likely to hold good for a few more years till hypersonic counter
weapons get tested, qualified and fielded into battle fields. So, the question is
what makes hypersonic weapons so invincible? And what makes it so special
that despite an underlying desire, only two countries have as yet fielded

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 hypersonic weapons while the US is still in the process of getting a system ready
for deployment.

Hypersonic systems are prompt, they are accurate, and suppose to remain
undefeated in battlefield theaters. They accelerate at speeds greater than Mach
5, follow depressed trajectories that keeps them undetectable to high altitude
radars, perform maneuvers at hypersonic speeds at medium to low altitudes
and during terminal phase thus making them survivable and hence

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unpredictable.

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As of now the hypersonic technology is based on two different configurations,

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the boost glide vehicles (BGV) that use rockets combined with hypersonic
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gliders and hypersonic cruise vehicle (HCV) that use hypersonic air breathing
engines. And as can be seen that the trajectories of HCV, BGV and ICBMs are all
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unique.
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To understand the CONOPS of these systems, one can have a comparison of all
three trajectories. The lofted parabolic trajectory is that of a ballistic system
such as an ICBM. It is detectable, traceable and fairly predictable by advance
radar systems. The BGV and HCV trajectories however remain well below the
radars line of sight until the last 40km, beyond which hypersonic maneuvering
makes it nearly impossible for the counteracting weapons to neutralize. Thus,
attenuating the lethality of hypersonic systems manifold. Technologically,
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 hypersonic speeds offer the most obvious advantages in terms of operating a
faster OODA loop than the adversaries, which can be a key to winning
battlefield competitions.

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The advent of hypersonic as I may say, is neither coincidental nor a chance

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happening. It has always been integral to the great power competition even as
early as the 1940s. And the US has possibly had the longest history in so far as
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the development of hypersonic technology is concerned. From theoretical

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foundations to protype developments of X-43 and X-51A, the US has led the
technology crusade for development of hypersonic systems. Albeit though, the
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two other major powers, China and Russia, were neither oblivious nor benign
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to the idea and the vitality of hypersonic systems. So, while the world was glued
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on to the technological marvels of DARPA and agencies in the West, high-paced

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research was on in the far-East and North. And whilst there appears to be a gap
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in the US chronology of hypersonic technologies between 2011 to 2018, that gap

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was availed just in time by Russia and China both. So, it happens that while the
concept of ARRW was still being refined, Russia was the first one to field
qualified hypersonic weapon – the Avangrade in the military. Couple of years
later, China raised the bar when in 2021 a hypersonic test flight vehicle changed
from the usual suborbital to an orbital vehicle encircling the Earth. And has thus
made China a global leader in this race.

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The growing frenzy with hypersonic system is visible on this list, that shows the
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hypersonic systems currently under development in different parts of the
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world. This implies that the coming decade will possibly witness an array of
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novel highly unpredictable system making way into conflicts around the globe.
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The question is that can the hypersonic weapons be also used in a dual role?
And my answer is YES. The same hypersonic technologies that power weapons
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 can also be adapted to derive civilian technologies. The best case in point is the
hypersonic cruise vehicle that can revolutionize air and space transportation
by potentially lowering the cost of space travel, thus making it affordable for
even small nations to have space launch systems one day.

Air University is not oblivious of this potential either we at the Aeroflux lab have
been working together with various sectors to evolve combined cycle
powerplants to energize the next generation of hypersonic space

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transportation systems. This is the true potential of hypersonic technology

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that offers global benefits before becoming catastrophic weapons for mankind.

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My second technology of focus is counter space operations. Another Realm of

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next generation of military operations, also known as space warfare. Military

strategists consider space operations as one of the most vital elements of a
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global power. In the sixties through nineties era, space was considered as the
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ultimate vantage point. While it was and still remains true, many new events in
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the past two decades have led to space being considered as far more than a
vantage point. The doctrines of space operations in almost all the major space
faring countries have seen an evolution from being a support element to
becoming a major power element in itself.

The space systems have been home to counter space operations albeit in
clandestine mode, and that’s despite the treaties that forbid weaponization of
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 space. Satellite grabbing, kinetic killing, energetic destruction of spacecraft is
just a few of the offensive counter space operations techniques.

In considering the potential for duality of role, two of the CSO technologies are
especially significant. First is the directed energy weapons for anti-satellite
operations, and the second is the co-orbital ASAT operations. The concept on
which these technologies are based use mathematical foundations that can
adapt them to far greater roles than mere killing of spacecraft. However, to

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convert a CSO strategy to benefit the space sector invariably begins with

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building a reliable space situational awareness (SSA) system. At air university,

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we are working to develop temporally reliable high fidelity SSA for space debris

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tracking and remediation.

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The DEWs for example can be effectively employed to annihilate space debris

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that resides in very low particularly the polar orbits. One of the major space

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power has very recently proposed this model and there is credible scientific

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reason to believe that the mission is certainly a possibility. For Example,
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directed energy weapons such as high energy laser guns have been proposed
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to annihilate smaller debris in the low earth orbit (LEO).
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Similarly, for large space debris the counter space strategy of satellite grabbing
can be applied for removal of defunct satellite from earth orbit. As a testimony
to the do ability of this idea my astrodynamics mission design team at the
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 Aeroflux lab has re-created from its final epoch the very famous tugging
operation of SJ-21 Shijian satellite as it carried out co-orbital rendezvous with a
defunct Beidou satellite in non-coplanar GEO orbits. We can see the SJ-21
slowly descending from its resident orbit making a phasing-out maneuver and
then rendezvous with compass satellite. Sj-21 then tugs the compass satellite
into a second phasing orbit tugging it all the way to graveyard orbit a few
hundred kilometers higher and then making a retro burn to return to its original
orbit. Now such missions are classical example of how an OCS technique can

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be used for the global good.

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Taking queue from the mission our Astro research team has designed debris
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remediation missions to validate the concept for the Low Earth orbit. The
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space debris has been selected from the European Space Agency’s SSA data
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using an extensive mathematical criterion. Two missions concepts are tested

one for large and the other for small angle maneuvers. Our results in terms of
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mission energy and satellite configuration are particularly satisfying in terms

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of the viability of applying space tugging into debris remediation using robotic
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satellites like the one we see here.

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While there is so much good that both hypersonic and counter space tech can
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offer, it is unfortunate that in our immediate neighborhood, India with all her
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elaborate resources is still investing heavily on the military aspects of
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hypersonic and CSO technologies. The continuing and unabated development

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of hypersonic Brahmos system, ASAT Prithvi system and the ever-increasing

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array of military satellite constellations are all a testimony that this impoverish
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region is fast getting pushed into yet another impending arms race to which the
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global community remains mute at best. It would have been immensely

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beneficial for the region and the global community had the same destructive
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technologies been used in their dual roles for the greater benefit of mankind.
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I rest my case with conclusion and recommendations
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1. Dual use space technologies both in hypersonic and satellite domains
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have continued to evolve from a military standpoint relegating the

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civilian needs. Whereas it is my firm belief that for long term

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sustainability dual-use space technologies must be evolved from a

civilian standpoint with added benefits for the military – There is a need
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to change our perspectives

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2. Hypersonic weapons technology because of its speed, reach and

unpredictability, faster OODA loop is a battlefield game changer. It’s
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latest advance form as China’s hypersonic orbiter is a technology worth

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investing in long-term not only as a worthwhile weapons platform but

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also as a hypersonic transportation system.

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3. Counter space technologies offer definite strategic advantage to the

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military but more importantly it is their dual-usage that must be invested

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for remediating outer space of the large and small debris. In doing so the
use of DEWs and co-orbital space tugging could be excellent
technologies to begin with.
4. From a military standpoint the presence of Brahmos family of
hypersonic weapons and the upcoming HTDV scramjet demonstrator
program have all the potential to drag South Asia into another
undesirable arms race.
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 5. The unending addition of military satellites to ISROs LEO constellation
and the ever increasing size of satellite buses, the ASAT test of Prithvi are
clear manifestations of India’s aggressive posturing in space with
overtures of engaging into offensive counter space operations
6. Thus Pakistan cannot and should not remain oblivious of India’s
advances in hypersonic and counter space technologies. Pakistan must
do what is needed for maintaining a minimum credible deterrence.
7. HOWEVER, what our region needs to do that both India and Pakistan

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together with other countries in the region can use SAARC Science and

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Technology forum to jointly invest in civilian-use space technologies. As
an example our math says that Pakistan’s Southern Coastal region could

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offer an excellent opportunity as a commercial spaceport for handling

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polar to inclined launches in both posigrade and retrograde orbits.

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Something that no space investment company would like to overlook.

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