DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011
MARKET S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION Sell Stop 3 Buy limit 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.4290 1.6190

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

1.4060/1.3840/1.3660 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550 Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.

1.4450 1.6120

Sell limit 3

0.8120

0.8035/0.7860/0.7700 Await Trade Setup (neutral).

0.8205

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY SHORT 1 Sell limit 3 Sell limit 3 117.70 0.8900 1.1650 Sell Stop 3 1.0526

1.0390/1.0200/0.9700 Await fresh signal. 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200 Exited at 1615

1.0730

114.70 0.9005 1.1720

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/GBP EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

SHORT 3

39.2800

36.7750/32.3125/28.9000

41.5500

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily 1.5 years)
PSYCHOLOGICAL (1.5000)
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Extended rebound stalls into key resistance 1.4400-1.4419.
KEY POINT (1.4578/50)

13

9
KEY POINT (1.4711/30)

EUR/USDs extended rebound (from its bullish reversal pattern near the 200-day MA), has stalled into key resistance zone between 1.4400-1.4419 (76.4/78.6% Fib level).

?
32.8% (1.4148)

TRIGGER LEVEL (1.4150) RESUMES WAVE 3 DECLINE

50% (1.3903) 61.8% (1.3659)

Our outlook remains neutral/bearish, while price holds beneath key

REVERSAL PATTERN AT 200 DMA (1.3919)

resistance at 1.4578. Failure into these levels will keep bearish risks on for a resumption of the downside pattern breakout, offering an accelerated impulsive (wave 3) into 1.3750/1.3659 (2 yr uptrend/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 rise), thereafter squeezing further conservative trend-followers into our initial objective at 1.3370.

WAVE OBJECTIVE (1.3370) UPTREND (1.3760)

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (76.91) US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily 2 years) US$ INDEX (Weekly) (4 YEARS)

Only a sustained close above 1.4578 will lead to a reassessment of our long standing bearish view, opening a potential extended recovery into previous key resistance at 1.4711/30. Inversely, the US dollar index is now holding steady around key support at
+27% +19%

73.50. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), where a potential oversold bounce could develop.

FALLING WEDGE PATTERN

TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL 13

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.
Please select link: REPORT
VIDEO

TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50)

TRIGGER (15000) COT LIQUIDITY

STILL UNWINDING!

EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.4290, Obj: 1.4060/1.3840/1.3660, Stop: 1.4450

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Higher low sought for a continuation of strength.
GBP/USD continues to be supported by the 50 week moving average after breaking out of a weekly rising channel earlier in the year. Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested as support in recent trade. We have also seen a failure in the daily timeframe to stay beneath the old support of a possible triangular reversal pattern, weakening the case for the bears. We look to see how the region near 1.6200 fares, in the event of a corrective phase developing, and now favour the formation of a higher low in this region ahead of fresh swing higher. Bigger picture, a larger trading range may be developing.

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550, Stop: 1.6120.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011
1 POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR)

Holding at extreme support 78.24.

USD/JPY has weakened further, but is still holding around the extreme support that we have been watching closely at 78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib

84.50
TDST (83.90)

retracement-March upswing).
EARTHQUAKE SHOCK! POST G7 MOVE HIGH

83.30

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing, watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-cycle. However, a close beneath 76.25 would change
82.00

our view.

MAJOR TRIANGLE (WAVE IV) SIGNALS FINAL MOVE DOWN

TDST (81.15)

To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET ZONE (88.00)

WAVE 2

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto 88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).

CONFLUENCE ZONE

BULLISH REVERSAL AT EXTREME RETRACEMENT (78.44/24)

NEW POST WWII RECORD LOW !!! (76.25)

MONTHLY TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL

13

WAVE 5
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Under wedge support required to complete pattern.
Sell recommendation revised. USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge. This follows the failure to gain momentum in recent trade following a failed upside and downside break. A lower high is now potentially in place at 0.8278, with scope for a test of wedge support and then a further break lower. We also note that a push under the long-term wedge support is required to complete this ultimately bullish long term pattern. A push over 0.8398 will end our short-term bearish bias. We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8120, Objs: 0.8035/0.7860/0.7700, Stop: 0.8205

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily) EXPANDING PATTERN INITIAL FAILURE AT RESISTANCE
USD/CAD (Weekly )

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011
FAILED BREAKOUT FROM FALLING WEDGE CHANNEL

Sharp unwinding from multi-year low at 0.9423.

USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from its fresh multi-year low at 0.9423. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).

Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.

MAJOR LOW (0.9446)

TD EXHAUSTION BUYSIGNAL

Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing
13

0.9059

high/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and 1.0000 (parity level).

USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE CHF/CAD (Daily)
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS

13

13

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recently breached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

38.2% (1474.69) 200-DMA (1.3715) 61.8% (1.3379) 50% (1474.69) 61.8% (1474.69)

In contrast, CHF/CAD is now developing volatile price swings within a sideways trading range, having failied to retest its 2011 highs at 1.1887. Moreover, the pair has also triggered two DeMark exhaustion signals suggesting risk of further weakeness into support at 1.1193 (38.2% Fib).

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR) 13
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011
TD RISK (1.0935)

Risk level at 1.0935.

AUD/USDs extended bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), has capped into our DeMarks TD Risk level at 1.0935.

13?

Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator still weighs exhaustion
1.0256 1.0200

sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime, our
200-DMA (1.0234)

downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), thereafter unlocking extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.

KEY SUPPORT
0.9804 V-SHAPE UPSIDE REVERSAL 0.9706 0.9537

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) 200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT AUD/JPY (Daily)

13

TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNAL

The Aussie dollar is weakening once again vs. the Japanese yen, after returning to its multi-month pattern floor. Only a confirmed downside breakout would signal a switch to risk aversion in the financial community.

38.2% (84.09) 50% (82.25) 61.8% (80.42) 200-DMA (83.75) KEY SUPPORT 1.2500 / 1.2463

POTENTIAL BREAKOUT ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.0526, Obj: 1.0390, 1.0200, 0.9700, Stop: 1.0730

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Further weakness anticipated near-term.
GBP/JPY has thus far met resistance close to the prior swing low at 128.17. Failure to remain below this level on a daily closing basis will increase the probability of a return to the resistance of the falling channel. In the meantime, we remain biased to a return towards the support of the weekly channel and then potentially on towards 122.36. Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, we expect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support, ahead of a possible recovery. We now await a shorter-term setup, to assist us in the formulation of an explicit trade recommendation.

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal, with a bias to shorts.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 A break under hourly trend-line support to weaken further.
EUR/JPY appears to be breaking down again after completing a recovery phase following the peak at 123.33 and then subsequently failing to hold over 116.00. We combine this with the recent break under the platform near 113.42/50, which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average. The exhaustion pattern that we witnessed last Friday has led to a period of weakness, which now challenges trend line support off 109.63, with a break under this structure weakening the outlook further. If a push under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower would then be favoured to follow, potentially beyond 105.44.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week moving average. Failure to remain under 113.50 on a daily closing basis will warn of an end to weakness and a return to strength.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Remains largely rangebound for now.
EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285, with the move lower from 0.9084 meeting 0.8705 thus far. A return to the 200 day moving average is now favoured. This currently lies near 0.8667. We view the current bounce as being corrective in nature within the shorter-term timeframe and seek a lower high close to 0.8900, ahead of a resumption of weakness. With current trade remaining largely range bound we seek a final swing higher in the shorter-term timeframe ahead of fresh weakness. A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term bullish structure.

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF
A return to 1.1374 is now favoured.
Sell recommendation revised.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011

EUR/CHF has potentially registered a lower high at 1.1892 last week. Todays break under 1.1610 now warns of a resumption of weakness with a return to 1.1374 now favoured. The longer-term falling trend remains intact and while under 1.2080 we would favour a continuation of the larger trend. We note, in the absence of further stresses from the Eurozone periphery, that a larger recovery would then become likely due to the probable extreme short positioning in this market.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND
Sell limit 3 at 1.1650, Objs: 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200, Stop: 1.1720.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620.
Golds resumption of the uptrend needs to close above 1620 in order to confirm sustainable extensions higher.

We had prefered hedge for downside risks following the recent unprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence of our exhaustion signals.

However, as previously stated, it was critical the market confirmed a reversal beneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger level still holds at 1588/82.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within the apex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart), which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

Golds COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed within a tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower volume). At this stage, the risk remains for a downside breakout which would unlock over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY Exited at 1615.

Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Bullish revival MUST close above 40.0000.
Silvers bulish revival MUST sustain a daily close above 40.0000 in order to
TARGET 2 (43.1136/43.8477) 50% (41.0513)

13

13

extend another potential recovery leg higher.

Such a positive scenario would help extend the bullish recovery further into our next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.

38.2% (34.0015) 50% (29.1244)

Meanwhile, neat-term support can be found at 39.1425. A break here

200 MA (32.9235)

38.2% (32.3135)

would trigger downside risk into 33.8416 (32.8% Fib), near the long-term 200-day MA at 33.3182.

Gold/Silver Ratio 50% (26.9150)

Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

13 YEAR LEVEL UNWINDING 37% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

37%

61.8% (21.5165)

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500

Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011 Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

25 July, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15