THE PAN AFRICAN UNIVERSITY

Pan African Institute of Governance, Humanities

and Social Sciences
Program: Master Degree

Course: PMGR 542: Seminars in Monitoring and Evaluation of

Regional Integration
Course instructor:
Ndamsa Dickson, PhD
Senior Lecturer & Researcher, Economics

8/29/2022 By Dr Ndamsa Dickson, PAU

 Introduction
 Regional integration is not a new phenomenon,
 Regional integration initiatives in Africa dates far back to the early 1900s with
the establishment of the South African Customs Union (SACU) in 1910 and the
East African Community (EAC) in 1919.
 In Europe, the history of regional integration can be trailed to the creation of the
European Coal and Steel Community in 1952
• and has since gradually and steadily progressed to build the European Union
(EU) with the Maastricht Treaty of Nov 1st 1993.
 In the 1960s, a wave of regionalism led to the establishment of various regional
institutions across developing regions,
• with the creation of the Central African Customs Union in 1964 in Africa,
• the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1967 in Asia, and,
• in Latin America, the Central American Common Market in 1960 and the
Andean Pact in 1969.

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 For Regional economic communities (RECs) in Africa, we have witnessed a
long and complex formation period
 Nevertheless, it is not right to consider the long and contradictory
formation process of RECs in Africa as a failure.
 The process was not smooth; it was uneven and often interrupted by
external impacts and internal development issues.
 Political liberation and de-colonisation was the rallying ideology upon
which economic integration and unity, found eloquent articulation in the
1960's in Africa.
 As a results, economists describe the process of regional economic
integration in Africa largely as a failure in terms of
• trade, investment, global and regional value chains, skilled labour and
entrepreneurship mobility, business cooperation, and policy
coordination.
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Introduction..
 But the steps towards the Lagos Plan of Action, towards the African
Economic Community (AEC), and towards NEPAD are key successes as they
provide a frame for continent-wide action.
 Though the processes of regional economic integration has not
contributed to establishing deeper forms of regional integration (RI) and,
we acknowledge that Africa RI efforts have had direct & indirect effects:

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 For direct effects: Africa regional integration has:
 promoted trade between border areas,
 Encouraged capital flows to countries in the region with more effective
macroeconomic policies,
 Moved skilled labour to places with higher salaries and better working and
doing business conditions,
 Improve market efficiency; Share the costs of public goods or large
infrastructure projects and
 regional integration has always been used as a tool to strengthen the countries
of the region in their third-country negotiations (with EU, USA, China, World
Bank, IMF, and WTO),
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 just to name but these.
 For indirect effects:
 Informal trade, labour movements and capital transactions have worked as a
corrective for bad national policies;
 Very large deviations between official and parallel exchange rates led to adaptations
of actors dealing with foreign exchange;
 Too large disparities in food prices led to illegal/informal flows of staple goods across
borders; and
 Too large impediments of doing business and entrepreneurship led to movements of
farmers, entrepreneurs, investors and traders to neighboring countries.

 Back to the model of Africa RI, the basis is the African Economic Community (AEC)
model of continental integration, and it follows largely the logic of the linear
regional integration model; the model is trade-centred.
 Today, we have eight regional integration arrangements which are supported by
the UN Economic Commission for Africa and the AU.

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Introduction…

Definitions:
Regional Integration
• Refers to the process in which individual (often neighboring) countries enter into
an agreement in order to improve cooperation through common institutions and
rules.
• The objectives of the agreement often range from economic to political to
environmental; this way, we can have regional economic integration or regional
political integration or regional environmental integration.
• although it has fundamentally taken the form of a political economy initiative
where commercial interests are the focus for achieving broader socio-political
and security objectives, as defined by national governments.
• Regional integration is organized either via supranational institutional structures
(e.g the EU, UNECA, AU & ECOWAS) or through intergovernmental decision-
making, or a combination of both.
• Regional integration helps countries overcome divisions that impede the
flow of goods, services, capital, people and ideas.
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Introduction…
Regional integration can be promoted through
common physical and institutional infrastructure.
Specifically, regional integration requires cooperation
between countries in:
• Trade, investment and domestic regulation;
• Transport, ICT and energy infrastructure;
• Macroeconomic and financial policy;
• The provision of other common public goods (e.g. shared
natural resources, security, education, roads).

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Introduction…
Some examples of Regional Economic Integration outside Africa:
NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)-An agreement among
the U.S.A., Canada, and Mexico.
EU (European Union)-A trade agreement with 15 European countries.
APEC (Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum) - This includes
NAFT A members, Japan, and China.

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 Introduction: M&E of RI..

Why Monitoring & Evaluation (M&E) of regional integration (RI)?

• Helps us to monitor the status and progress of RI; low and high performers,
• M&E of regional integration will enable partner countries to address the
accountability concerns of stakeholders,
• give regional integration managers (ie AU, UN ECA) information on progress
toward achieving stated targets and goals,
• and provide important evidence as the basis for any necessary mid-course
corrections in policies, programs, or projects.

• What typically has been missing from regional integration and government systems
has been the feedback component with respect to outcomes and consequences of
regional/governmental actions. How do the countries appreciate the outcomes of
RI?
• This is why conducting an M&E of RI gives decision makers an additional regional
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integration management tool.
Chapter One: The Status of Regional Integration in Africa : What
M&E do in RI?
Outcomes:
This chapter should enable us to:
• Have some briefings on the economic context of Africa
• Appraise overall integration, macroeconomic integration, free
movement of persons, infrastructure integration, trade integration
and trade trends.
• Have specific knowledge on what M&E does in regional
integration.

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Chapter One…
A) Africa’s Economic briefing:
Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2016
was estimated at 1.7 per cent (ECA, 2017),
• With diverging economic performance among countries; with
the highest growth rate registered in Côte d’Ivoire (8%)
followed by the United Republic of Tanzania with 7%
• and the least growth rate registered in South Africa (0.6%).
• The oil-dependent Nigerian economy contracted by 1.6 per
cent while that of Equatorial Guinea contracted by 4.5 per
cent.
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Chapter One…
Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 was estimated at 6.9
per cent.
• The rebound was attributed to recovery in oil prices and global demand,
combined with the resurgence in household consumption and investment in most
countries after COVID-19 restrictions were eased.
In nominal terms, Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, followed by
South Africa and Egypt. These three together account for almost half of the
African economy.
Concerning inflation, in 2016 it stood at 10 % and 11.7 % in 2021, with
varying rates across regions:

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Chapter One…
•Inflation was 2.3 per cent in Central Africa in 2016,
•5.3 per cent in East Africa (compared to 36.5 percent in 2021),
•8.7 per cent in North Africa (compared to 4.7 percent in 2021),
•11.4 per cent in Southern Africa and
•13 per cent in West Africa (compared to 12 percent in 2021).
•The growth in prices level in East Africa occurred mainly due to a rise in oil
prices, which led to an increase in energy inflation.
On fiscal deficits, North Africa has the largest fiscal deficit of Africa’s
sub-regions, although it has declined slightly due to a narrowing fiscal
deficit in Egypt;

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 Chapter One…
Central Africa’s fiscal deficit increased from 5.1 per cent of GDP in 2015 to 5.8 per
cent in 2016 and budget deficit dropped to about 0.5 in 2021.
• This 2016 increase has been mainly due to expansionary fiscal policies in the context
of lower oil revenues in these countries: Cameroon (public expenditure on transport
and power infrastructure), Equatorial Guinea (increased public investment in
infrastructure) and Republic of the Congo (spending on public sector wages).
East Africa’s fiscal deficit increased from 4.0 per cent of GDP to 4.6 per cent in 2016
and budget deficit narrowed to about 3.1% of GDP in 2021.
• The increase in 2016 is owing to expansionary fiscal policies, mainly in Ethiopia
(investment in infrastructure), Kenya (investment in a new railway line, sharply
increased government salaries and transfers to new counties) and Uganda (investment
in hydropower projects).
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Chapter One…
West Africa’s fiscal deficit rose from 1.8 per cent to 2.8 per cent of GDP in
2016, and budget deficit remained high at about 3.7% of GDP in 2021.
• largely reflecting increased public spending in Nigeria (especially on
security), an increased minimum wage and higher spending on security and
infrastructure in Côte d’Ivoire, and election related expenses and greater
spending on public sector wages in Ghana.
Southern Africa’s fiscal deficit remained unchanged at 4.4 per cent of GDP.
• Though South Africa’s deficit increased because of slow growth in revenue
and heavier spending,
• this increase was counterbalanced at the regional level by declines in the
fiscal deficits of Mozambique (which enacted capital spending cuts),
Namibia and Zambia (which improved tax enforcement and postponed
spending on large investment projects)
source: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2017)
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 Chapter One…
Concerning Africa’s current account deficits. The decline in commodity prices
has reduced the continent’s export earnings, resulting in a much wider current
account deficit.
B) Overall assessment of regional integration: Africa Regional Integration Index?
In Africa, the framework that provides legitimacy and stimulus to the
commitments of continental integration is the Treaty Establishing the African
Economic Community (put in place in 1994 & commonly called the Abuja
Treaty).
We will assess the progress towards an African Economic Community(AEC),
showing the stages of integration to which African countries committed
themselves under the above Treaty.
Worthy of note, the Treaty had a roadmap to guide the stages of regional
integration
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in Africa. The stages are as follows:
By Dr Ndamsa Dickson, PAU
Chapter One…
Stage One of this treaty required: Strengthen existing RECs and establish
new RECs in regions where they do not exist (by 1999)
Stage Two required: Consolidation within each REC (gradual removal of
tariff and non-tariff barriers) and harmonization between the RECs (by
2007).
Stage Three: Establish Free Trade Areas (FTAs) and Customs Unions (CUs)
in each REC (by 2017); a drive towards Continental FTA (CFTA).
Stage Four: Coordinate and harmonize tariff and non-tariff systems among
the RECs with a view to creating a Continental CU (by 2019)
Stage Five: Create an African Common Market (ACM) by 2023
Stage Six: Establish an AEC, including an African Monetary Union and a
Pan-African Parliament (by 2028).
Thus, M&E of Regional Integration entails the M&E of progress towards
each stage-objectives.
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Chapter One…
According to the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)
(2016):
Stage One of the Treaty is now complete with eight Africa’s RECs
formally recognized by the African Union:
• Arab Maghreb Union (AMU),
• Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),
• East African Community (EAC),
• Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD),
• Southern African Development Community (SADC),
• Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA),
• Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and
• the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD).
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 Chapter One…
The second stage has not been fully completed because
progress by the RECs and by members within the RECs has been uneven.
The third stage is under way in a number of RECs but not all.
Only three of the eight recognized RECs have both a Free Trade Area (FTA) and
Customs Union (ECOWAS, EAC and COMESA), although with varying degrees of
implementation; this is the assessment of MONITORING.
Now, EVALUATION should provide another assessment on Why only 3 RECs have
both FTA and CU, Why are other REC not adopting these, as well as Why there are
varying degrees of implementation of RI within & across RECs.
Though a continental free trade area (CFTA) does not feature explicitly in the AU
roadmap, in accordance with the sequential stages of regional economic integration,
it is a stepping stone to the creation of a continental Customs Union

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Chapter One…
• Concerning the status of regional integration in Africa, The RECs are
progressing at different speeds across the various components of the
Abuja Treaty:
• The EAC has made the most progress across the board.
• The graph below summarises progress of regional economic
integration by REC:

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Chapter One…
• Progress of regional economic integration by REC:

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Chapter One…
Note, though creating an economic and monetary union is the goal of
all REC,
• only ECCAS has achieved (ie Central African Economic and Monetary
Community - CEMAC).
• Freedom movement protocol has been ratified by all ECOWAS
members.

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Chapter One…
So, M&E of Regional Economic Integration should monitor and
evaluate progress towards the above five components of the Abuja
Treaty, they include:
• Free trade area
• Custom union
• Single market
• Freedom of movement protocol
• Economic and monetary union
Capital for the M&E of Regional Integration efforts is the
establishment of the Africa Regional Integration Index
In April 2016, the African Development Bank (AfDB), African Union
Commission (AUC) and ECA unveiled the Africa Regional Integration
Index.
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 Chapter One…
• The Index seeks to track African countries’ progress in implementing
their regional integration commitments to one another in the
framework of the RECs.
• It measures each country’s integration using Five Dimensions, which
have a total of 16 indicators.
• With the help of these dimensions, we can capture for each REC how its
members integrate with the rest of the membership (ie measuring
within-REC integration).
• The following graph shows some examples of within-REC integration
using the Five Dimensions:

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Chapter One…
• Integration among Arab Maghreb Union members:

• Morocco ranks first in integration with other member countries

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Chapter One…
• Integration among East African Community members:

• Rwanda ranks 1st in integration with other member countries

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 Chapter One…
Briefings on the 5 Dimensions & 16 indicators of the index:
1)Macroeconomic integration (MI) ensures the convergence and stabilisation of
macroeconomic policies within a region/REC in order to create a healthy financial climate
that attracts cross-border investments. Financial integration ensures intra-African outward
direct investments.
Indicators of MI:
i. Number of bilateral investment
treaties
ii. Regional convertibility of currency
iii. Regional inflation differential

2) Infrastructure integration(II): It is also an important enabler of intra-African trade,

particularly the development of road, railroad and port infrastructure within the
continent.
• Improving the continent’s infrastructure is essential to make the most of the
potential of the CFTA (ECOSOC, 2017).
Indicators of II:
i. AfDB composite infrastructure index
ii. Proportion of intra-regional flights connections
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 Chapter One…
3)Trade integration(TI) captures progress on liberalizing tariffs, facilitating
trade, and removing nontariff barriers (NTBs); creating FTAs and promoting
intra-African exports and imports of goods & services.
• Free trade areas by AU recognized RECs: COMESA, ECOWAS, EAC and
SADC.
Indicators of TI:
i. Average tariff on imports
ii. Share of intra-regional exports over
GDP
iii. Share of intra-regional imports over
GDP
iv. Share of intra-regional trade
v. AfCFTA (each country is to ratify/sign)

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 Chapter One…
• Worthy to note, intra-African trade is liberalized through
mechanisms beyond the AU-recognized RECs, including the Pan-
Arab free trade area, the Central African Economic and Monetary
Community (CEMAC) and the Southern African Customs Union
(SACU).
4) Productive integration: ensures that the productive capacities of a
member country complement those of other countries in the REC;
• that is, if it specialises in stages of production where it has a
comparative advantage and can benefit from economies of scale
Indicators of PI:
i. Share of intra-regional intermediate exports
ii. Share of intra-regional intermediate imports
iii. Merchandise trade complementarity index

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 Chapter One…
5) Free Movement of People: free movement of people in the REC.
Indicators:
i. Free Movement of Persons Protocol (Kigali)
ii. Number of countries that may obtain a visa on arrival
iii. Number of countries that require a visa
NB: A count of the indicators under each dimension gives us 16.

M&E of regional integration within each REC should be based on these

dimensions and indicators.
Now, let’s understand the different types of monitoring as well as
evaluation that we can use.

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C) Levels of Monitoring and types of Evaluation
 Recall that Evaluation is: “The systematic gathering, analysis and reporting of data
about a system/program to assist in decision making.”
 And Monitoring is: the constant or recurring collection and examination of selected
information on program activity over the life of the program.
 Now lets look at the classes of evaluation on the one hand and the
complementarity between monitoring & evaluation on the other hand:

C.1) TYPES/CLASSES OF EVALUATION

Evaluation can be classified as follows based on its objective:
i) Retrospective Vs Prospective Evaluation
 Retrospective Evaluation - is often used when programs/projects have been
functioning for some time; an existing program.
 Prospective Evaluation - is conducted when a new program is being introduced or
when major changes are introduced.
• A prospective evaluation identifies ways to increase the impact of a program on
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clients.
 • it examines and describes a program’s attributes; and, it identifies how to
improve delivery mechanisms to be more efficient and less costly.
 Simply put, prospective evaluation determines what ought to happen (and why); and
retrospective evaluation determines what actually happened (and why).
 So we can conduct a retrospective evaluation of regional integration in Africa; since
it is an existing program.
C.2) Formative Vs Summative Evaluation
It is the broadest and most common classification of evaluation:
 formative evaluation - evaluation of components of a program/policy other than
their outcomes.
 A formative evaluation may evaluate the degree of need for the program, or the
activities used by the program to achieve its desirable outcomes, but without
evaluating the degree of outcome.
 In regional integration, it can be used to evaluate the five dimensions & 16
indicators used to build the ARI index; are these dimensions/indicators
appropriate and well measuredByto
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reflect RI.
Dr Ndamsa Dickson, PAU
 Formative evaluation then evaluates whether the regional integration program used
the right mix and indicators to measure the ARII; How was the index formed?
 Such an evaluation is very important at the start of defining what the ARII will
measure? How are we going to form the index of RI?
 Summative evaluation- evaluation of the degree to which a program has achieved
its desired outcomes,
 and the degree to which any other outcomes (positive or negative) have resulted
from the program.
 In RI, the question is has FTA, CU and Single market etc been achieved? Is RI of
member countries fairly even within each REC?
C.3) Internal Vs External Evaluation
 Internal evaluation (sometimes called self-evaluation), in which people within a
program sponsor, conduct and control the evaluation.
• Internal evaluation can more fully engage the insights of program personnel but
runs the risk of overly subjective evaluation results.
 External evaluation, in which someone from outside the program. External
evaluation has the advantage of objectivity if done well.
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C.4) Descriptive Vs analytical Evaluation
 Descriptive evaluation is meant to answer four of the questions that are the
hallmark of good descriptive evaluation: WHAT WHO WHEN WHERE
• Description alone does not answer WHY & HOW.
 The WHY and HOW questions that are answered by Analytical evaluation.
 WHAT refers to the activities, that is, the action steps or those things that
the program/project does to attain the outcomes.
 WHO refers to the target groups, that is, individuals, groups, countries or
communities to whom the program is directed.
 WHEN refers to the timing of the evaluation exercise.
 WHERE refers to the place where the program is expected to occur.
 WHY refers to “why the program” which captures short-term and long-
term outcomes, that is, changes or benefits that will occur in relatively
short time frames and those that will take longer to be realized.
 HOW refers to how the changes/impacts take place.
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D) Monitoring has not got different classifications, monitoring information is used for
two purposes:
1. to alert the program to changes in program operation that might be signals of
possible program failure; and
2. to provide a body of information that will be used when each kind of evaluation is
carried out.
 Monitoring can emerge from prospective evaluations, and can provide raw material
for retrospective evaluations.
 Monitoring articulates what changes are expected to occur and, moreover, how these
are expected to occur.
 Monitoring should not be confused with reporting, which is one of the components of
monitoring.
 While reporting only refers to the compilation, transfer and distribution of
information,
 monitoring focuses on the collection and analysis, on a regular basis, of the
information required for reporting.
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 Thus, monitoring encompasses the planning, designing, selecting of methods and
systematic gathering and analysis of the content,
 while reporting summarizes that content with the purpose of delivering the relevant
information.
 Monitoring can also be viewed as an established practice of internal oversight that
provides management with an early indication of progress, or lack thereof, in the
achievement of results (by International Organisation for Migration, 2018).

Why monitor?
 Monitoring is necessary, because it continuously generates the information needed to
measure progress towards results throughout implementation and enables timely
decision-making.
 Monitoring helps decision makers be anticipatory and proactive, rather than reactive,
in situations that may become challenging to control.

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Monitoring helps identify whether:

• Planned activities are actually taking place (within the given time frame);
• There are gaps in the implementation;
• Resources have been/are being used efficiently;
• The intervention’s operating context has changed.

When to monitor?
Monitoring is undertaken on an ongoing basis during the implementation of an
intervention.
 So, to effectively monitor the ARII, we have to gather information on its
indicators/dimensions and analyse such on a regular basis; we have had 2016, 2019
and we should expect another index by the close of 2022; this should create a regular
3-year interval of monitoring.

Here below are important monitoringByquestions

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to regularly ask:
Dr Ndamsa Dickson, PAU
 Monitoring questions & levels:
When implementing activities When measuring results
(process level): (outcomes & impact levels):
- What activities are being - Are results achieved?
implemented? - Is progress shown against
- Are they being implemented as indicators?
planned? - Are targets being met?
- What is the current budget rate? - Are target groups satisfied with
- Have any new risks being the services?
identified?
- Are intended target groups being
reached?

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 Evaluation & Monitoring complementarity
 While monitoring may show whether indicators have progressed, it remains
limited in explaining, in detail, why a change occurred. Evaluation, on the
other hand, looks at the question of what difference the implementation of
an activity and/or intervention has made.
 Evaluation answer this question by assessing monitoring data that reflects
what has happened and how, to identify why it happened.
 When a monitoring system sends signals that the efforts are going off track
(for example, that the target population is not making use of the services, that
costs are accelerating, that there is real resistance to adopting an innovation,
and so forth), then good evaluative information can help clarify the realities
and trends noted with the monitoring system.
 Note, prospective evaluation can produce/guide monitoring strategies.
 And retrospective evaluation can benefit from monitoring information.
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 We can understand that M & E are complementary and at same time have mutually
beneficial functions.

 In summary,
 Monitoring, on the one hand, focuses on whether the implementation is on track to
achieving its intended results and objectives, in line with established benchmarks.
 Evaluation, on the other hand, provides evidence on whether the intervention and its
approach to implementation is the right one, and if so, how and why changes are
taking place. Evaluation also highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the design of
the intervention.
Difference between Outputs and Outcomes in M&E
 An output is a measurable result of activities within a program, reflecting the immediate
result of the activities but not directly reflecting the effect on target groups of the
program.
 An outcome is a measurable positive or negative change to target groups of a program or
to other stakeholders.
 Impact tells the experiences, and/or feelings of people or society or target groups, as a
result of the change; outcome and impact
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are interlinked.
By Dr Ndamsa Dickson, PAU
 So far so good, we can only M&E RI effectively, if we can measure it.
This leads us to the next chapter (Africa Regional Integration Index:
Data and measurement).

Thank You

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Appendix: chapter one
• Map of Africa and REC:

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Chapter One… END
References:
• ECA, AUC and AfDB. 2016. Assessing Regional Integration in Africa VII:
Innovation, Competitiveness and Regional Integration. Addis Ababa:
ECA.
• ECOSOC (United Nations Economic and Social Council). 2017.
Regional meeting on “Innovations for infrastructure development and
sustainable industrialization.” New York. https://www.un.org/
ecosoc/sites/www.un.org.ecosoc/files/files/en/2017doc/summary_d
akar_meeting.pdf

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