Statistics For

Probability ✗
Machine Learning
is
What Probability theory ? I

It's mathematical framework performs certain

→ that seat
a
of
actions
,
these
where actions contains some sort of uncertainty •

••
Whether that Examples
a)
It means you're not
have sure about
person cancer ←
08
something .

or not 0

Not decided yet

uncertain
◦
a. She was
of
his true
feelings for him

probability %
→
usually
to
expressed over a
range of 0 CNMI not happen)
I 1- happens
- ' •

→ It
enables machine learning to predict future events based on
historical data o

Probability theory
a-
Statistics 2-4 Machine
teaming
Builds the base

Terminologies 9- concept ◦

* Sample space 8- It's a set

of all
possible outcomes
of an
experiment .

denoted
It is by % symbol ◦

* Events 9-
An event is
an outcome
or -

defined collections
of outcomes of
expt
•
an
A of the W is called an Event
.
subset

Example : - Determination of the been doe then I =

f.gg , by
 :
Degree of belief
-

*
if doctor analyzes
a
40010
a
patient 8
Says that the patient
has chance
of having flu
•

1- → absolute
certainty that the
"

pdr Mt don't
✗
(0 -4 absolute
certainty have
flt o

that the
has patient
flee
◦

.
0 @
1- PCB )
☒ (A) )
AUB
Cpc

Some
examples : -

or Buon ? = PLAN B)
pep wins =
PC A) 1- Pe B)
02-10-42 0 :b

Note :
-
Review the concept of factorials 9 combinatorics
The Law of Large Numbers : -

E. ✗ Pt :
Tossing a coin : Pc
getting ahead )
Ig 5 or 50%
-
=
or o •

Say that calculated that there's

'
we he 3. i ao chance

that we 'll get heads on

every toss in, a small five -

toss

experimentmen .

The large more states that the more

of large expt.es
we the closer we will tend to get to the expected
rush ,

probability
•

when an individual believes

Gambler 's
fallacy ¥ :
-
Occurs

that a certain event is less

likely 09 More likely to happen
based on past set of events ◦

Eg : Tossing fair coin

-

Random variable 8-

→ between set
of possible values from a random experiment ◦

coin 8-
→
Eg : Rossing a
°
: ◦' • are the possible values
Cheadle ,

{
✗
}↳
0 to
✓ exp
=
'
of an
1 1 fails )
Random events

→ A Rov has whole set of values ✗ can tame any of those

values
randomly
°

Rov set of values = I

✓
→
Eg : Throwing a dice 9- ✗ = I t
,
2,
3,4 , 5, 64

P= % , Pc✗ 2)
%
= = ◦ • ◦

Probability of Rov
taking the
value of ✗ = I
 Random Variable
↓--→
Discrete continuous
random variable random variable

* Discrete
random variable : -
It's a row that can take
finite or
countably finite values .

→ countable noo of status I find .

non-finite )
could be category C heads ,
tales
-4 Could be
integer l Mellett
of rolling die )

* Continuous random variable : -

It's a rev that can take infinite

noo of possible values 0

E- g : -

the helps
*= Amt ◦ of rainfall on a
given day ,
where ✗ C- [ 0,07
PC ) Suck probe
teeming
us in out ✗2 2cm or •

height of students
probability
E- : ✗ where we take out the
g can
-
=
,
such as Pl ☒ 2180cm 7

↳
probability that a student have
to 180 emo
height
greater or
equals
E- 1- ✗ Time spent on a given Buch as Pex ≥ 107min ) 80010
day
=

g. = ,

where ☒ 10,03

Probability functions 8- Mass

→ It
gives the probabilities for the given discrete random nakiablllo
→ It's the function i
and
the
probability distribution of discrete rovo
their
• e a

provides
values ☒
probabilities .

) Pc * re )
P*lM
=
=

☆ ' I
The
=

of Probabilities sum up to 10
*
↳ sum
$

✗
Crc ) 20 -4 It is non -
negative .
Eg : PMF
of rolling dice : -
-
a

☒ = It ,
2 , 3,4s 5 , 6 1
46 "
116
%• % "
•6
I
/•b
•• •
I
P☒ 11-7 =

6
:

É Pd 6) = I
1- 2 3 4 5 6
0
fig : beraph of Pmf !
! Note :
-

Proba bitter can

changes as well
according
to the example ◦

Probability Density functions : -

variable o
→ It
gives the probability for continuous random

distinct range of
→ Tames out the
values
probability coming within a

,
as
opposed taking only one value ◦

Histogram :
-

☆ Arsed to summarize data both continuous ✗ discrete )

by showing the
no of
•
Pt is that fall in a specified range r

Example : -

=
I
-
I
I

:
I
= btw
3 customer
waiting I 435 .

5- customer waiting btw I 940 ◦

8 Go
on !
 r

Density Plots : -

*
It can be
thought of as plots of smoothed histogram ◦

Examples
wdym ? ?
are :-

%
Note :
-
We will take a detail look ✗ analysis -9g histograms
density plots later •

Coming back ooo

^
?

f-
Pca ≤✗ ≤ b)

f pend ✗
2

[ a , by

→
.

Properties : - _

*
1PM DX =
⑥ * Every pen ≥ 0
 Expected value : -

→ Mean of a
probability distribution ◦ It
represents
argo value me
expect before collecting any data
◦

whereas Mean is
typically sample
used as when
→ meee
calculate the mean here collect
of a we
•

data ◦

Calculating Expected value 8-

Eg : -

boats Cx ) Probability Pex )

|
0018

EE =
-2 Kpcc ) 1- 0034
K O • 35
↓ 0011
3
do 02
IE = 0 ✗ 0 ◦
18 -1 4

I ✗ 0034 1- 2×0035 1- 3 ✗ 0011 1- 4 * 0 •

02=1104--5-1
✓
*
expected
team Will
no of goals a

Calculating
•

Mean 8- scene

Ñ = In XP Law
of large noes implies
÷ that as we increase the

↳ meany of the sample

noo of expt.es
converge to 11=-0
,
our ☒ will

+
Take a look at the
practical
example of this -
Example : -
✗ =
[ 1
, 2,3 , 4,5 ,
6 ] unbiased six-sided die .

11=1*1 i
%) -1201% ) -13 (g) (8) 1- "
✗

(8)
= ◦
+ 4
•
+ 6.

= 3 • 5

Now , that thwarted die

Say 10 times outcomes
meee
, are
6 2 3
5,2 , , 2,2g 1
, , ,
6
, I
so ,
ang value is woah
%p
◦
soo
☒ ,

of distance from the E-

=
= 3 ◦ o 0.5

3 50
-2 value •

when you die

Now
,
roll the N times
,
✗ N became
larger
then you will notice that
argo
value will converge to the
expected value this is
µ⇐☒=C✗ )
◦
d- what to
going
µ happen
.

why ? ?
Because So
of large
increase
N , each of Law members • as you
possible value
of 17×1×7 will occur with equal probes
of % , i. e turns to the expected value
avg
◦ •

Measures
of Central
tendency 8-

co -1 %
* A measure of a
single value that
attempts to

describe a set
of data
by identifying the central position
within that set of data .

MeaqM÷%hg\ Mode
Mean :
.

*
commonly I majorly used for continuous data ◦

* Sample mean = ER =

Fin ✗ ? ☆
Mean
value that
tells us
is
the
most
2- common o

Population
n✗P isn't
* Mean
mean =
% = ☆ the actual
value present in data •
When mean does n'* work
? T
◦
→
if your data have outliers, then mean can
get influenced
and data so we
may give wrong interpretation of
o
you
have
median which doesn't gets
influence by outliers
Median :
-

Middle score the dataset that has been

*
in order
of aeekanged
of magnitude o

It's less
affected by Outliers
* ◦

↳: -

1-4
,
35
,
45
,
55
, 55,15¥ 56 ,
65 ] 87,09 , 922

find out how to take mitddle value

media of an even no ◦

scores
of ?
Mode : -

*
Most
frequent score % allll dataset ◦

Problems thee have 9-

Quantile : Percentiles , Quartiles , and Beetles

* A. Quantile is where a Sample is divided °egto equal-Sized ,

sub -

it
dividing probability distribution
◦
can also refer to
groups a
eyto
.

of equal probability
•
areas

* Quartiles 9- It divides the distribution Into four equal parts o

8- It divides the distribution eirto 100 equal parts .

* Percentiles
divides
* Deciles 8- It the
distribution into 10 equal parts o

Quartiles :-

-4 Divides the entire set into 4 equal parts ◦

→ There are 3 Quartets , Dr , Qs , Qs

Quartiles formula : -
4.
↓
~ Its
Quartiles
.

* Put the data % order ◦

%
* cut the data 1 distribution 4 equal parts ◦

* The Quartiles are at the cuts ◦

2g 41 g
4
g
*g G
g 71 ,
8
•
0, 02 { upper
l middle Quartile )
flower
Quartile ) Quartile ) media!!
↳ also
called
Inter quatell Range
* The unter quintile range % from Qr to Is :

÷¥
Inter Quartile range
:
-

41,4 § 6,71
into quartile
gym
2 8
, , ,
range
,

% -

Qi = y -

y =

Quartiles divides the probability dietnbuticnen 4 Equal

parts :

¥iÉ
-

* ( %)

Interpreting Quartiles µ •
9- • In
Eg 9- 59

84
,
60 .

8T
, 6$
90
,
6.5 ,Ñ; 69,70

95798
,
72,7
.FI?-&t-p7.Median
b ,
77 ,
81

)
,
8.2 ,

, , ,
021
* 0 , is the central p.ae?rtblW Smallest and the median ◦

* Q, M * 11141 19 *
{ 4 75 ≈ b-
= - = •
=

Q , is at 5th index 1pm .

* Qg % the middle value btw 028 the hight score .

Dog =
(821-84)/2 =
83

⑨z = 84 l as it is the median 6W 02 A Max )

Quartile is percentile
of Oy, represent
score 1st 8 the 25the

it represents the median of the lower

half of the score
the avail data
by
a

set
→ Q, tells 25010 Of the Seoul are less than 688 75010

of the scars are

greater ◦
→ Oz is the median ✗ 50th percentile A Shows that 5001 ◦
of
the Store are lets than 75 to ✗ vice versa - i

→
Qs is the 75th percentile ,
reveals that 25010 of the scarce
greater than 84 ✗ 75010 lets than 84010 i

→ I DR tells how far apart the 1st & 3rd Quartile are
how out 5090
of dataset
indicating
our
spread in 1
,

IOR is resistant to outliers : -

* helps In measuring the spored of a dataset •

Eg 9- 2, 3 3
, ,
4 , 5 , 6 6,7, 8
, , 8,8 , 9
◦
Q, = 3•5
,
02 = 6
, 03 =
8 What if in data me

introduce 100 does apt in

* a- OR = 8- 4 = 4
delta
To
9- 2 7
Range
lrange=1oo↑-2=9#_
=
* =

Note : -

We will see the use of 9- Or

by sa bad to !
identification of outlier door .

Percentiles 9- certain
of scores fall below that no
◦ to •

score is
if you know that yourbetter in the 90th percentile,
that scared
means than 90010
you of people
who took the test .

Say for an : -
the 70th percentile on the 2013 be RE was 156 .
scored 156
if you the
on exam , you score was
test takers ◦
better
they 7001 o g
-4 the 25th percentile is called the first quartile •

-4 The 50th percentile % called the median •

→ The 75th percentile is called the3rd Quartile •

→ Are difference btw third ✗ tout Quartile a

Percentile thank G- In above example 70th , pehlentele ,

-70 is
a percentile Manko
Decile :•-- It divides the distribution into ten equal parte •

→
I5 22 24 27 32 36 40 41 50 9 0
↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-4 15 6th
1st decile $ decile 36
=

*
H students scored
10010 Students
Goto of
Scored
Of below 15 •
below 360

Variance ¥ Variance is
from
a
measure
the meaner it is how tall set
of how data

of
ptos differ
data are
speed out
from their value
argo
•

variance More data is

↑ More ↑ scattered or sinned
out from the mean

* Measure
of Speudd from data ◦

Formula :
-

Variance =

AI☒ standard deviation

value of all observation
→ mean

& =

Éf%? the name of one observation

↑
of observation
for Sample variant
the total noo why
2
we have n
-1
?
E-
%z↑C Xp 4) ( we wine talk about F)
-
=

-
 distribution variance of Rov
if we talk about probability ,
or .

then concept of Expectation takes place o

Eg : -

{ °o° "µ%L?n=
☒ [ too , too ] : " "
P✗l☒ >
= -
=

o • 5 too ✗ = IN

[ 09
P*W={to
* = : * too 9=0
otherwise
E [ ✗] =
-2 91×7 p 1×7 EEY ] -
I 91×7 p ex )
all ✗ all ✗

2 -100 •
0 of -1 100 •
Oe 5 I ✗0
=
= 0

80 Efx] = E- C -47 so I 90 be noted )

,

Note 9- Both Reve have same mean Value; their dtstnbelticn is

completely
different .

✗ 100 , or IN
ECYT
-
=

y
==

↳ it's mean = 0 hr

far away from mean

* Variance is measure of how spread out the distribution
a New % from
of mean ◦

* Here , the Mainand og H % Quite &mall dime ite distribution % concentrated

hlhelle
at a
single value ,
Var lx ) is large .

Variance of ✗ : -

E- [ c** y Rs I ex
µ ipcn )
- = -

alive
↓
var Cx )

Why we are
squaring ?
 E [☒ ECX] E- [ ]
up =
µ×
⇐
141*-141 ☒ 0
-
-
=

b/w it's
ifthe
we don't 8g the
result is Oo
difference . ✗ $ mean ,

Nar Cx ) = F- [IX -

µ *P ]
= % I ☒i -

U*PP×l %)
9=1
'

Variance ✗
og
Varix) =
(-100-03210.5)-11100-0740.53 =
10,000
Vasil Y) = to -
OR er ) = 0 .

You can see the narc I % than rare 4)

way larger
let's say the have a dataset retrench the site
States of
watermelons in meters ; but Marc × ) has different
unit ◦ ☒ is in meters Marek will be
Say , them
in lmetere if
so , unit of ✗ ≠ Naral unit
it's an
issue !! like #hU can take the square
root variance
of
.

Farm -1-0*-1
1--1

* this ninthdues another measure called Standard

deviation •

toooo ✗ To =D
So , o-
☒
= = too 0-4 =

Computational formula for variance t

2 ( How to prove it ? )
EE ( ✗ -

UP ] =
E- 1×2 ) -
[f- ( x) ]

feint 9- Varcx ) = F- [ H -

14×12 ?
'

↳ expand Pt
using ta
-612
identity
.
 &
Var CX ) = E [ IT] -

I ECX ) ]
"

↓ ↳
9¥ →
jane Pines
⇐
µ =
at
F- [ ] =
I, WE P☒ Irc )
au x

Example 9- roll a fair die $ let ✗ be the

resulting no • find
F- [ ×]
; rare ✗ D; ✗
•
☒

for
5,64 and
Ig
& ↑, 2 , 3,4 , ↑ 2 6
Pick)
k
Rex
•
= = ◦ •
= ,

F- [ ✗ ] = I ◦

1g 1- 2 ◦

f- -1
301g 1- he ◦

% 1- 50 f- 1- 6 •
%

{
=

'
E [× ] = to
% 40%
1- 1- 9 •

% -1 lb ◦
f- 1-
25% 1-1-30 % •

9dg
=

$0 2
: rare × ) = E [× ]
'
-
[ En ) 92 a
9dg (2)
-

AH Tae92 ≈ 1.71
≈
9% 4dg ≈ 2092
-

o = = -

materials ◦
P¥q
Note :
-
covariance : * "

I
-

t t
Nov Nov
-111
relationshits
.

tells the btw two 12 V •

A finance example % -

Say you're a investor , his portfolio tracks performance of the SAP 500 and
want to add the stock
you of ABC Corpo
S&P 500 → ABC Corpo
Data 9- ↓
→ wants to assess the dtreticnal
relationship btw the stock of ABC
Corpo A
S&P 500 ABC Corpo S&P 500

1692 6 8
2013
× →y
identity
2014 1978 1 02
-6 wants to
µ the directional
2015 I 884 110 relationship •

2016 2 1 51 112 *
if both ofthen
the stocks tend to increase
it has
together , me
say positive
2017 2519 154 covariance o

↑ ↑ * if both of the stocks where one increases

☒ (Rw) Y(Rev ) ☒ other decreases then wee

say it has
negative covariance o

covariance formula : -

Covariance btw two Rov ✗ $ Y for random variables 8-

Corexit)
Il✗q-✗_m)CY§
=

Sample covariance
Corexit)

where :-
=

ICX-i-n-Y.FI
-6 the values of the ✗ var -47 the values of the Y Varo
Xp
- -
-

the values the 4- war -6 n

-4
Yj of the
noo of data ptas
- -

-4 I - the mean of the ✗ war

-
Mean / SAP 5007
1692-11978*18841-2=151+2519 044080
E- = 2
,

Mean ( ABC Corpo )

68+102-11,10+11=-154 109020
= =

1692 -
2044 68 -
109 ◦ 20 -352080 ✗ -41 ◦
20

1978 1 02 ✗
-

2044 -

109 o 20 -

6 6 08 0 -7020

1884 2044 1 10 ✗ 0080

1090 20 l b o 80
-
o
-
-

2151 -
2044 11 2 -
1090 20 10 6020 ✗ do 80
✗
2519 -

2044 154 -
1090 20 474 20 ◦ 44 u 80

↳
-
Cove saw , NBC , wipe) Multiply
14,535036
= 36,429020
480096
7.
-

128064
9.1077030
=

+
297 036
.
↑
positive covariance -
21,244 • I 6

36,429-021
Note : we will take
covariance matrix when
-

a look at •

in
looking Colato

correlation :
-

→ Another measure to examine the relationship

btw two
variables ◦ While covariance btw two wars measures the
directional relationship .

But correlation measures the

strength of the relationship •

correlation coefficient ranges from -

A tot ◦
* it correlation logo of
-

it describes a
perfect negative on
◦
inverse correlation ↑ in which one rises other decreases o

* if correlation logo of 1- describes a

perfect peso correlation
inwhich one increases other as well ◦

*
if Metatron Cleef is 0 , then there % no relationship
-4 The most common is Pearson coefficient or Pearson's which measures
of linear relationship btw two variables
the and direction
strength .

Correlation coefficient Equation

← covariance og
c¥e%-yy
)
Pray
varo
messy
=
.

↳ are → standard deviation

• of
Pearson product
•

moment correlation log • → standard deviation

.
y
of y •

Point Probability Distribution

*
Probability distributions can represent probability of Multiple T.ws
simultaneously
.

Probability of both M=k $ is PC me

y I
y : re
* y y
= = =
,

↳
§ PC 6h52 ) ± 2
/ 52 = ↑
/ 26
'
PC red ] =
4152 ✗ 26152
=
/26
PC 6) ✗
"
N
"
is referred as intersection which means it will happen
as the same time .
Marginal Probability
→ It's the
probability of a
single event
drawings independent of other events
•

sum rule :-

PC
*me
Ey y )
C- ☒ g ✗= re ) a PC ☒ = rc , Y:

↑
rov

Example : -
Calculate the Marginal Probability of Pet preference
and women ◦

among men

More examples with different

scenarios is in
reading
materials ◦

Total Moo of people = 22 ◦

→
/ 22
} Margins
people who prefer cats = 7 2 0032
→
People who prefer Pish =
7122 = 0032
→ People who prefer Dogs 8122 0 36
= •
=

Conditional Probability
* The likelihood of an event
accruing based on the occurrence of a

previous event or outcome •

* Two events are independent if one event does not

affect the
another
event , however if one event I not
event then it % dependent o
occurring affect the
probability of other
,

* if events are independent ,

then it does not relates to conditional probability ◦

Pc Al B)
↳ between Bo
probability of A
Conditional Probability formula on

P¥%
PCB / A) B)

}
'

Revisiting tag
or

n-pn.gg
= • '
 Eg : -
we say that there is 23 to of the
days are
rainy •

PCR) = 0023 , where Ris the event that it will teach on

random
day
•

let's assume we pick a

day ✗ say that
tnÉay→°
what's the leaks
extra
information
probe that it on a
given day
given that the day % cloudy ?
PCR I C) Formula : -

↑ paint woody
Pc,np,B→
Pt At B) ±
PC B) 1=0
,

Some special cases : -

• When A 8 B are
disjoint : An B. = ∅ ,
SO ,

PIA / B) = PCAh_B) = P = 0
PCB) PCB )
since .
A ✗ B are
disjoint they ,
can't occur at the Same time .

•
When B is a subset of A : then hthlneulr B happens ,
A also
happens ◦

Pl AI B) )
Plrtpenpb PpY%,
=
= = 1

When A Is a sellset
og B, then

PCAIB)
Pcpttcnpp Pp4↑
=
=

- Note 8- The solved problems of conditional probability is

released as soon as
possible •
Distributions
lie
Uniform distribution :
- Probabilities is constant over all the

possible values of Ko
continuous uniform distribution :-

b✗ l
¥a
Area

|
=

* & ait -
= '

f- 1×7=1
fat Area = I b-a

80 the PDF of the

,

uniform distribution 't

F- e±x≤d
fix ,
{ Eater
=

→ →
0 otherwise

-121
a
median 9 mean
←¥
= =

☆ Auc of the uniform

&

Iz ed d) distribution te ist
= o
-

a recto
↳ you don't need to
!
◦

know how A lame

Example 190 Statistic ref ). 8-

•
say ✗ is arrow that hasuniform distribution
a with

9=200 and 6=250 . What is 1-1×3 ?

f- "" =

%
=

2%0-2
=
¥-0 for 2100£ me ≤ 250

0 Others heir
=
what is Pex > 2301
?

:|ÉÉi:÷m
f-CX)

250
to the right of 230

this ie
to
simply a
•

Pl XD 2307 ⇐
(250-230) * I 20 04

50

What is the 20th percentile ?

find the value a which yields
2 -6

¥ ÷=
Oo
µ 002 to the left ?

f-CX) ( a- 2001 * go = 02

"
Normal Distribution : -

it is
*
symmetrictoabout the mean ,
showing that
far from
data
mean
near the mean are
occur than data a
more
frequent
→ There are cases
many
a which data tends
in

t.EE#Tl.-in.maeai:niou-..
to be around a
central value with no
bias
left
or
sight •

' Bell '

curve

Many such
examples follow N • Dt

→ when we say that data is

Height of people distributed t Normally
-6
Mean a median = mode

about the centre

→
Symmetric
-6 5040 of values are less than mean

50010 5090
of values are > than
50010 A mean .

↳ mean = median = mode

All N •D can be described by & pars t mean ✗ Standard

is deviation .
→ Mean the location parameter and standard deviation
is the scaling parameter .
 Empirical Rule :
in Normal
distribution
It tells where most lies
-

of our values a

Around 68010
of the Values are within 1 Sob from the mean •

Around of the Wallner are within

9540 2 bob from the mean .

Around 99 7010
•
of the values are within 3 Sop .

Inc -1412
Formula 1- I -

1- ex ) = e
& You only need µ ✗
a- TEA 0--2 )
*
Niy = 0 -0=1 )
,
↳ Normal distribution has mean ee and standard deviation o- •

if and standard detection is 1 , it's called standard

mean = 0
then
Normal distribution •

Stand arising with 2- scores : -

2- Score =
VI.
5

Empirical ruler

→ The empirical rate gives us how much

the data lies within one , two or three
of
deviation from the mean •

Stdo
Stand arising with 2- scores :-

Mean and standard deviations for the SAT and ACT

SAT ACT
Mean 1500 2 1

SD 300 5-

-6 Ann is 1 Std . deviation above from average ◦

-6 Tom 's is 0 ◦ 6 Std ◦ deviation above

from average •

15009 0-8 Ap = 300g And 1800

Mgn→= Kann
=

Kann ←
-

2 = SAT
Ann 1800 -

1500
= = 1-
#
290m
×TomÉa 24-5-21
=

=
= 0 • 6

* The 2- Store
of an observation is
the no .
of Standard deviations it
falls above all below the mean 0 we
compute
2- score for an observation me that follows distribution with mean µ and standard deviation :
a •
easing
-

1¥
2 =

https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statistics/
Book%3A_OpenIntro_Statistics_(Diez_et_al)./
03%3A_Distributions_of_Random_Variables/
3.01%3A_Normal_Distribution
 Heo metric distribution : -

✗ How
long should we expect to flip a coin until it turns up heads ?
-

✗ How
many times should we expect to rod a die until we get 1 ?
-

The Questions he distribution! !

answered using biometric

breo metric distribution ÷ used to describe how trials it takes to Icicles

many
•

if the
probability of a success in one trial is p and the
probability of a
failure is 1-
p , then
the

first in the nth trial is given by

Probability of finding the secrets
'
pin
-

ki -
p

Eg : Suppose-

you're
playing games of darts
◦ The
probability of success is 004 • What is the
probability
you will hit the
beuseye on the 3rd
try ?

P = 0 • 4
•
p↑→p UP
-

PC * = ne ) =L I -

; PC ✗ =3 ) = I l -
o • 10 4) ;
•
PC ✗ =3 ) = Ooty y

The meant expected value )

,
variance and Std • deviation of this wait time are
given by :-. -

ie
% i-¥
= =
• =
; ;
P2
here , eh 8 expected value are same • On
avg
◦ it tunes Yp to get success under the
geometric distribution a

→
if the PI success is ↑ then you don't have to wait for success
long to a •

Pl succeed
leg i. 008 ; = 1025 trials on
=

egg, avg ◦

-6 it the PC Sloan ) is ↓ then you do have to wait too

long for a success ◦
eg : PC success ) 04 I
%,
10 trials on
=

avg ◦
=

Bernoulli Distribution
-4 This distribution % Quite simple left for Students to explore •

Binomial distribution :
-

→ Used to describe the no ◦

of successes % a
fixed no ◦
of trials • Cello metric distribution
describes which is the no .

of trials we must wait before we observe a success .

Note : It is not used too much

though in assignment
-

, you 're asked to explore

about it!
 n

Hypothesis test : -

*
say you run an expto and find that a certain drug is effective at treating headaches .

is
What
Hypothesis ?
It's educated guess
something
* an about ◦

as
a
guess based on knowledge
and experience .

* A claim to test, it can be an eixpto on an observation ◦

Eg :
-

→
Drug A works better r than
Doug Bo
-6 A way
• J of teaching you might think be better •

it
-6 can be
really anything at all as
long as you can put
it to the test .

What is a Hypothesis statement ?

* it you're going to it's

propose a
hypothesis ; customary to write
a statement •

" "
If I • ◦ • I do this 1 • • ◦ then I thees will happen )

Eg :
-

•
if I lgive patients counseling in addition to medication)
then c their overall depression scale will decelerate)
•

Null
hypothesis -

Ho -
The Null
hypothesis is always accepted as fact Simple
◦
examples of
null hypotheses that are
generally accepted being
i t
as true alee

Taking
◦
violence can increase your
risk of heart problems ◦

Alternate hypothesis -
*
a- The alternate hypothesis is also called research hypothesis • It involves the
claim to be tested ◦

What % Hypothesis Testing ?

* It's a
results
way for
•
you to test the results of a sunny or expto to see if you have
meaningful