International Journal of Pavement Engineering

ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/gpav20

Development and evaluation of relationships

between surface condition rating and objective
pavement condition parameters

Tamina Tasmin, David Richards, Hussein Dia & James Wang

To cite this article: Tamina Tasmin, David Richards, Hussein Dia & James Wang (2021):
Development and evaluation of relationships between surface condition rating and objective
pavement condition parameters, International Journal of Pavement Engineering, DOI:
10.1080/10298436.2021.1894421

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2021.1894421

Published online: 12 Mar 2021.

Submit your article to this journal

Article views: 96

View related articles

View Crossmark data

Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at

https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=gpav20
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING
https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2021.1894421

Development and evaluation of relationships between surface condition rating and

objective pavement condition parameters
Tamina Tasmin , David Richards, Hussein Dia and James Wang
School of Engineering, Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, Victoria, Australia

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Highway authorities make efforts to relate visual ratings with directly measured pavement condition data Received 25 September 2020
to reduce or remove the necessity of manual pavement condition surveys that involve subjectivity and Accepted 19 February 2021
potential safety risk of assessors. This research develops a set of relationships between pavement surface
KEYWORDS
condition rating and objective pavement condition parameters to assist road asset managers in Surface inspection rating;
triggering periodic bituminous resurfacing programs at the network level. These condition parameters resurfacing; objective
include cracking (% area affected), rutting (mm), texture loss (% of left wheel path texture), and pavement condition data;
roughness (m/km). In the literature, deterministic and probabilistic modelling approaches are used to pavement distress; linear
predict visual surface inspection rating (SIR) from directly measured pavement distresses. The Factorial regression; ordinal logistic
ANOVA results that are typically used have inferred that cracking and rutting interact with each other models
significantly for the asphalt surfaced road network. However, the percentages of variation explained
by the linear regression models that predict SIR from cracking/rutting are low (24–31%). Alternatively,
developed ordinal logistic models for predicting the probability of a road section being in any
particular surface condition, with any quantified cracking/rutting data, prove to be statistically better
with overall success rates of 46% and 51% for sprayed sealed and asphalt surfaced network, respectively.

1. Introduction A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for Saudi Ara-

In road maintenance prioritisation, several decision-making
approaches have been incorporated and employed in the pave-
ment management studies (Bandara and Gunaratne 2001, Far-
han and Fwa 2009, Ahmed et al. 2017, Fuentes et al. 2019).
Conventional prioritisation for selecting an appropriate treat-
ment strategy takes account of the pavement distresses causing
highest inconvenience to users, particularly in the event of
budget constraint. In the priority ranking, an expedient prac-
tice is to manifest the potential needs for pavement mainten-
ance in terms of an index established through empirical
numerical equations or an integrated index based on visual
rating (Shah et al. 2014). This visual rating involves the types
of distress and the pavement deterioration in terms of severity
and extent of the distresses (Karim et al. 2016). Although rat-
ing value is easily comprehensible, it has some restraints
because this type of value is inherently subjective and does
not convey adequate engineering data (Gharaibeh et al.
2009). The advances of information technology provide sig-
nificant prospect for precision, repeatability and objectivity
of data acquisitions with distress detections that are note-
worthy enhancements in pavement condition surveys
(Loprencipe and Pantuso 2017, Zakeri et al. 2017). Thus, an
automated survey increases the efficiency of data collection
as well as lowers potential safety risks accompanied by subjec-
tive field surveys at highways (Ong et al. 2009). Accordingly,
many researchers have made efforts to relate visual rating
with objective parameters to exclude or recede the subjective
pavement condition surveys.
bia’s urban link roads predicts pavement condition rating
from traffic loading, age, and IRI (Mubaraki 2009) which
shows relatively good predictability (R 2 = 0.799). Another
study results show that R 2 for determining Pavement Service-
ability Rating (PSR) as a function of objective pavement con-
dition parameters for highway sections in South-East Nigeria
is high (R 2 = 0.90) by employing an Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) model compared to the MLR model (R 2 = 0.34) (Abiola
and Kupolati 2014). Hence, the result implicates that the ANN
model has a high degree of predictability over the regression
model. However, it is hard to interpret and to understand the
physical meaning of an ANN model (Hill et al. 1994). Probabil-
istic ordered logistic models were developed to predict Pavement
Serviceability Index (PSI) levels from Pavement Condition Index
(PCI) and International Roughness Index (IRI) for the rigid
pavements of an urban area of Colombia (Fuentes et al. 2019).
A recurring limitation of these types of approaches is that they
were simpler to apply to an entire network rather than project
level, whereas the deterministic and incremental deterministic
approaches are of substantial use in this context (Henning
2008). In recent studies, probabilistic approaches entail attention
over deterministic ones to apprehend the uncertainty and sto-
chastic nature associated with the concealed influencing factors
in pavement deterioration process (Hong and Wang 2003, Por-
ras-Alvarado et al. 2014, Martin et al. 2015).
A comprehensive review of past studies indicated that the
mainstream accepted practices, for relating road condition
index to the directly measured parameters, are based on
observed local historical road condition data. The appropriate

CONTACT James Wang jawang@swin.edu.au

© 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 T. TASMIN ET AL.
modelling approaches differ with the accessibility of the stan-
dard measuring or evaluating scale of the concerned road
agency as well. However, probabilistic approaches involving
subjective rating and objective pavement distress have received
less attention in the previous studies. The current study
attempted to develop a set of relationships between visual
pavement surface condition ratings and directly measured/
automated pavement condition data to prioritise periodic res-
urfacing maintenance programs. Besides, efforts have been
made to investigate the interactions between the pavement dis-
tresses in assessing the pavement condition. To address the
aim of the study, linear and logistic regression modelling
approaches were trialled to predict visual surface ratings and
surface condition categories, respectively, as a function of
pavement condition parameters.
2. Data description and preparation
Pavement surface condition data for Victoria’s bituminous road
network are collected every two to three years using a standar-
dised rating method. The condition is evaluated by skilled per-
sonnel visually, stratifying the types of distress, and then
assigning weighted values for the severity and extent of those
distresses to estimate the remaining surfacing service life (Vic-
Roads 2004). This subjective survey involves pavement dis-
tresses that include cracking, deformation, texture loss, stone
loss, and maintenance patching for asphalt wearing courses in
addition to binder condition and level for sprayed seals. These
distress condition ratings are then integrated into a composite
index denoted as Surface Inspection Rating (SIR) and used to
prioritise the pavement sections for resurfacing or resealing
treatment. Besides, state road authority of Victoria carries out
Pavement Condition Surveys (PCS) biannually to assess the
overall functional (roughness, texture loss) and structural (rut-
ting, cracking) performance of pavement using automated
vehicles (Dang 2017). Therefore, these objective data are utilised
to trigger all types of maintenance renewal activities.
A sample bituminous granular pavement network of
Metropolitan area in Victoria, Australia was used in this
study. SIR data from subjective surveys and quantified crack-
ing (% area affected), rut depth (mm), texture loss (% of left
wheel path texture), and IRI (m/km) data from objective sur-
veys were compiled for modelling. The manual survey was
conducted for each 300–500 m road sections whereas objective
data were collected for 100 m road sections. After matching
the chainages of same year for both types of surveys and
screening the data set, 160 road sections of the asphalt concrete
(AC) surfaced network and 190 road sections of the sprayed
seal (SS) surfaced network, from the year 2011 and 2013,
were prepared for analysis. The underlying assumptions in
filtering the data are as follows:
(1) Pavement sections of ages up to 25 years are selected, con-
sidering the expected average surfacing service life of
asphalt and sprayed seal that varies with surfacing type
and road function. Sections with age > 25 years are
deemed outliers, and excluded accordingly.
(2) Sections having SIR ≤ 40 are selected for the analysis.
Higher values are considered outliers because those
pavement sections are presumed to be for key renewal
programs like rehabilitation or reconstruction.
(3) Sections subjected to treatment maintenance, over the
study period, are excluded to refrain from the misleading
improved performance.
(4) Only through lanes are considered, to limit the variability
of SIR data due to road geometry.
(5) Greater values of cracking, rutting, texture loss, and IRI
(roughness) data are found to be as outliers in the analysis
and therefore excluded from the study.
The quantified distress data from PCS were validated with
the corresponding distress rating from visual survey using
logistic regression method. The manual rating was evaluated
by experienced personnel, based on the severity and extent,
and rated on a scale with the values of 0, 1, 3, and 5 for nil,
minor, moderate, and extensive distress condition categories,
respectively. Additionally, directly measured distresses were
assessed by trained but inexperienced staff using digital/auto-
mated devices. Therefore, the consistency in both types of
pavement condition data were necessary to predict the overall
pavement surface condition.
The developed logistic models for subjective distress rating
conditions implicated that directly measured distresses (crack-
ing and rutting) are significant predictors of visual rating con-
dition categories for each pavement section of the AC network.
However, the automated rutting data cannot be validated for
developing the intended relationships and thus, excluded
from the analysis for the SS network. The rationale for this dis-
crepancy may be the deformation ratings evaluated by the
assessors in the subjective survey are more related to local
depressions than to longitudinal depression (rutting) in the
SS network. Further, quantified texture loss data were found
not to be a statistically significant predictor of the correspond-
ing ratings of surface texture loss for any of the networks, and
therefore, excluded from developing the models for pavement
surface rating. The reason is presumed to be the difficulties in
visual assessment of the slow deterioration process of pave-
ment surface texture loss.
Comprehending the initial correlation analysis IRI data are
excluded from developing the models for the SS network. This
exclusion is pragmatic since determining SIR is limited to some
factors, like roughness and skid resistance, that are associated
with the serviceability of pavement surfacing. Besides all these
rationalizations, there is also a possibility of errors in the objec-
tive data due to misconceived interpretation or misreading.
3. Modelling approaches
3.1. Linear regression models for surface inspection
rating (SIR)
Preliminary analysis indicated that correlations (Pearson’s cor-
relation coefficient, r) between subjective SIR and quantified/
automated pavement distresses (cracking, r = 0.53 and rutting,
r = 0.34) are statistically significant at the 0.01 level in the AC
network. In the SS network, the correlations of subjective SIR
with quantified cracking (r = 0.444) and texture loss (r =
−0.292) are statistically significant at the 0.01 level. However,

the texture loss data cannot be validated with its manual rating.
Moreover, the correlations for SIR with rutting and roughness
are very low (r = −0.002 and −0.037) in the SS network. Since
initial correlation analysis implied that a significant linear
association exists between SIR and some PCS parameters, a
suitable approach can be the linear regression modelling to
predict the SIR values. Linear regression model as a multi-
variate statistic is easy to interpret, particularly when the out-
come variable is to be measured in the metric scale. The
universal form of the multiple linear regression model is as fol-
lows (Myers and Myers 1990):
Y = a0 + a1 x1 + a2 x2 + a3 x3 + · · · + an xn + 1 (1)
where Y is the dependent variable (DV) or outcome variable; a0
is the Y-intercept; ai is the linear regression coefficient,
i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n; xi is the independent variable (IV),
i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n; and 1 is the random error component that
reflects the difference between observed data and fitted values.
In this type of modelling (Equation (1)), linear transform-
ation of the IVs is assumed to minimise the sum of squared
residuals of the DV. That means that the deviations of the pre-
dicted values of the DV from the actual values will be least.
3.2. Probabilistic logistic model for subjective
pavement surface condition
Logistic regression is one kind of continuous probability
approach and has been applied in current research for pave-
ment deterioration modelling, taking into account distress
progression (Khraibani et al. 2010, Henning and Roux 2012,
Wang 2012, Choummanivong and Martin 2014, Hassan
et al. 2017). By and large, this type of method is appropriate
for describing and testing hypotheses that relates a categorical
dependent variable with one or more metric or categorical
independent variables (Peng et al. 2002). Moreover, the
assumption of logistic regression is more flexible with data dis-
tribution since it does not infer a linear correlation between
untransformed response variable and explanatory variables.
In this approach, dependent variable describes the outcome
of the stochastic event with a function of cumulative probabil-
ities that vary between 0 and 1. Here, the logit or natural log-
arithm of the odds acts as the dependent variable, and
therefore, it is manifested as a linear function of independent
variables (Erkan and Yildiz 2014). The general expression of
the logit function can be presented as below:


p(x)
Logit[ p(x)] = loge
1 − p(x)
= b0 + b1 x1 + b2 x2 + · · · + bn xn (2)
where b0 is the constant; bi is the regression coefficient;
i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n; and xi is the independent variable;
i = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n.
Logit[ p(x)] is the logarithm of odds or ‘likelihood’ in
Equation (2). This likelihood or probability for any event occur-
ring is compared to that event not occurring where the likeli-
hood ratio of the DV is assumed to be 1. In Equation (2), if
p(x) is the likelihood of any event occurring, then
[p(x)/(1 − p(x)] is the corresponding odds. The best-fit
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 3
model is to be established by finding the required fitted
regression coefficients that maximise the probability or likeli-
hood of achieving the observed results. In the current study,
the ordinal logistic approach was used since SIR values can be
ordered into different specific categories with the deteriorating
pavement conditions. In addition, the assumption of parallel
lines is satisfied herein. The effect of each predictor on the
odds to be at or below a particular category of outcome variable
remains the same within the ordinal logit model (Liu and Koir-
ala 2012). Hence, the influence of each pavement distress is pre-
sumed to be the same within different categories of the SIR.
Thus, in ordinal logistic regression, the underlying assumptions
are that the slope parameters (b1 , b2 , . . . , bi ) must not change
for different categories and the intercepts (b0 ) will differ only.
To predict pavement surface condition from objective PCS par-
ameters, SIR value is categorised into two following ranks.
(I) RANK1 (five categories):VG (Very Good): SIR = 0–10;
coded as ‘4’G (Good): SIR = 11–15; coded as ‘3’F (Fair):
SIR = 16–20; coded as ‘2’P (Poor): SIR = 21–30; coded as
‘1’VP (Very Poor): SIR > 30; coded as ‘0’.
(II) RANK2 (four categories):VG (Very Good): SIR = 0–10;
coded as ‘3’G (good): SIR = 11–20; coded as ‘2’P (Poor):
SIR = 21–30; coded as ‘1’VP (Very Poor): SIR > 30;
coded as ‘0’.
In ordinal logistic regression the estimated probabilities are
cumulative scores, where the probability of an occurrence and
all occurrences that are ordered before it is considered, rather
than estimating the probability of an individual occurrence.
Hence, the predicted cumulative probabilities for the pave-
ment surface conditions can be computed using the following
formula:
Probability of pavement surface condition being in a specifiec
condition category (3)
= elogit(condition category) / [1 + elogit (condition category) ]
The probabilities of the individual condition categories,
computed cumulative probabilities from Equation (3), can be
estimated by subtracting the cumulative probability of a con-
dition category from the condition category having the score
less than that category. The probability of a
pavement section in an expected pavement surface condition
category can be calculated from the following equations:
Probability(VP condition) = Cum probability(VP) (4)
Probability(P condition) = Cum probability(P)–Cum probability(VP)
(5)
Probability(F condition) = Cum probability(F)–Cum probability(P)
(6)
Probability(G condition) = Cum probability(G)–Cum probability(F)
(7)
Probability(VG condition) = 1–Cum probability(G condition) (8)
4 T. TASMIN ET AL.

4. Data analyses and discussion order, part, and partial correlation coefficients the contri-
butions of PCS parameters in predicting SIR values are
4.1. AC network SIR model with main effects
inferred. On its own, log-transformed rutting accounts for
(continuous pavement distress data)
34.5% of variability in SIR value. Nevertheless, once log-trans-
The linearity assumption for variables and the formed cracking is considered, log-transformed rutting
normality assumption for residuals were found to be violated accounts for 22.3% of the variability in SIR value in addition
for the filtered data set. Therefore, different transformations to the variability explained by log-transformed cracking.
were applied to the variables (metric) to increase the accu- Besides, log-transformed cracking contributes 43.1% to the
racy of the predictive models. Reasonably successful trans- variability of SIR value including the variability explained by
formations include logarithmic (base 10 logarithms) the log-transformed rutting.
transformation of the PCS parameters. The partial regression
coefficients from regression analysis suggested that depen-
dent variable SIR is linearly associated with independent 4.2. AC network SIR model with interaction effects
variable Log10(cracking + 1) and Log10(rutting + 1) individu- (categorical pavement distress data)
ally when other independent variables are statistically con- In Statistics, the term ‘interaction effects’ implies that the
trolled in the AC network. These coefficients are 0.45 and relationship between two variables depends on the value of
0.24 for log-transformed cracking and rutting, respectively. another variable (Aguinis and Gottfredson 2010). The inter-
Although IRI has a very weak partial correlation (r = action effect between cracking and rutting (both variables are
0.042) with SIR and the linearity assumption seems to be used as categorical) was found to be statistically significant
violated, the zero-order correlation (r = 0.177) is for SIR model. The Levene’s test statistic (p > .05) inferred
statistically significant at the 0.05 level. Therefore, it is (Table 1) that equal variances can be assumed. Besides, Factor-
included in the analysis to study the combined influence ial ANOVA revealed that significant differences prevail in
of cracking, rutting, and IRI in predicting overall pavement mean SIR across the varying conditions of cracking and rutting
surface condition rating in the AC network. However, the (Table 2). In addition, there is a statistically significant (at the
interactions between cracking, rutting, and IRI were found 5% level) interaction between cracking and rutting, in predict-
not to be statistically significant. Thus, only the main ing the SIR value, F (2,138) = 4.282, p < .05 (Table 2).
effects of the pavement condition parameters were con- In conformity with the VicRoads categorisation practice of
sidered for the study. According to Equation (1), the basic pavement condition data, cracking is classified as ‘Good’ when
form of multiple linear regression (MLR) models for pave- the surface area affected <10%, and ‘Poor’ when it is ≥10%.
ment surface inspection rating (AC network) is as follows: The interaction plot (Figure 1) demonstrates a difference
between ‘Fair’ and ‘Very Good’ rutting condition in the way
SIR = a0 + a1 Log10 (cracking + 1)
that cracking affects SIR values. The connecting lines for
+ a2 Log10 (rutting + 1) + a3 Log10 (IRI) + 1 (9) ‘Good’ and ‘Poor’ conditions of cracking are not parallel and
intersect each other. It is evident that the difference between
After several trials, the best-fit Equation (10), congenial to the mean rating on the cracking is much wider for ‘Fair’ rut
Equation (9), was obtained from stepwise MLR analysis and condition than for ‘Very Good’ and ‘Good’ conditions. In
included log10(cracking + 1) and log10(rutting + 1) as statisti- the data set, most of the road segments are in ‘Very Good’,
cally significant predictors. However, IRI was found not to ‘Good’, and ‘Fair’ conditions for the asphalt surfaced network.
be a statistically significant predictor, and hence, excluded
from the model. The results concluded that the contribution
of cracking is more than rutting in predicting the variation Table 1. Levene’s test statistic (AC network).
of SIR [Standardised β coefficient for log10(cracking + 1) is F df1 df2 Sig.
0.446 and for log10(rutting + 1) is 0.231 (p < .05)]. These stan- 1.818 5 138 0.113
dardised coefficients indicate the effects of cracking and rutting Note: Null hypothesis: the error variance of the DV is equal across the groups.
Design: Intercept + cracking + rutting + cracking * rutting, dependent variable:
on the SIR value by weighting (using standard deviation) the SIR.
regression coefficients to equal the variances due to different
types of measurement unit of the variables.
The predicted regression equation for SIR (AC Network) Table 2. Parameter estimates for SIR model with interaction effects (AC network).
has the following form: Type III sum of Mean
Source squares df square F Sig.
SIR = −3.136 + 8.093 Log10 (cracking + 1) Corrected 2785.432a 5 557.086 9.700 0.000
+ 13.862Log10 (rutting + 1) (10) model
Intercept 7380.594 1 7380.594 128.511 0.000
Cracking 1470.724 1 1470.724 25.608 0.000
Though the Y-intercept is not statistically significant, the Rutting 423.942 2 211.971 3.691 0.027
inclusion of the negative value of intercept can be justified Cracking * 491.831 2 245.916 4.282 0.016
Rutting
by the effects of other condition parameters that are not con-
Error 7925.568 138 57.432
sidered in achieving the best-fit equation. The coefficient of Total 32,912.000 144
determination (R 2) is 0.305, meaning that the model explains Corrected total 10,711.000 143
about 31% of the variation in SIR. By analysing the zero- a
R squared = 0.260 (adjusted R squared = 0.233), dependent variable: SIR.

Figure 1. Comparison of means of SIR showing interaction effects between cracking and rutting (AC network).
The number of pavement segments with poor condition (rut-
ting = 15–20 mm) or very poor condition (rutting > 20 mm) is
very low, and therefore, these are regarded as outliers herein.
Hence, the comparison was carried out based on ‘Very
Good’, ‘Good’ or ‘Fair’ conditions.
4.3. Simple linear regression (SLR) model for SIR (SS
network)
Considering the data validation and initial correlation results,
only objectively measured cracking was included in developing
the relationship and after several attempts, a linear trend
between SIR and Log10(cracking + 1) was found with a corre-
lation of 0.485. The best-fit regression model for SIR (SS net-
work) explains about 24% (R 2 = 0.235) of the variation in SIR
and has the below form:
SIR = 16.202 + 8.603 × Log10 (cracking + 1)
Prediction abilities of Equations (10) and (11) are relatively
low to estimate the value of SIR for both networks. To account
for this effect, logistic approach was used to predict the likeli-
hood of a categorised pavement surface condition using a
probabilistic approach.
4.4. Ordinal logistic models for pavement surface
condition
In this study, the likelihood ratio test and goodness of fit test
results indicated that developed models for both types of rank-
ing (RANK1 and RANK2) fit the data well for both networks.
Parameter estimates of the SIR model for both networks are
presented in Tables 3–6, respectively.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 5
Table 3 and Table 4 indicate that cracking and rutting both
are statistically significant predictors in the AC network.
Thereafter, IRI (roughness) is not a statistically significant
(p > .05) predictor in the AC network, and therefore, was
excluded from the model. Considering the validation of data
in the preliminary correlation analysis, only cracking was
used as an explanatory variable and found as a statistically sig-
nificant predictor in the SS network (Table 5 and Table 6).
The necessary number of logit equations, according to
aforementioned Equation (2), are reduced by one type of pre-
diction category since ‘Very Good’ condition has been chosen
as the reference category due to its highest rating and logits
(the function of PCS parameters). The fitted logit equations
for the remaining four condition categories of the AC network
for RANK1 are:
Logit(≤ VP) = −5.274 − (−0.083 × cracking)
(11)
− (−0.167 × rutting) (12(i))
Logit(≤ P) = −3.345 − (−0.083 × cracking)
− (−0.167 × rutting) (12(ii))
Logit(≤ F) = −1.875 − (−0.083 × cracking)
− (−0.167 × rutting) (12(iii))
Logit(≤ G) = −1.077 − (−0.083 × cracking)
− (−0.167 × rutting) (12(iv))
The minus signs in the above equations indicate that a lar-
ger value of coefficient is associated with a larger score. Each
equation from Equations (12(i)) to (12(iv)) gives the logit of
6 T. TASMIN ET AL.

Table 3. Parameter estimates for ordinal logistic SIR model with RANK1 (AC network).
95% Confidence interval
Estimate Std. error Wald df Sig. Lower bound Upper bound
Threshold [SIR (VP)] −5.274 0.756 48.677 1 0.000 −6.755 −3.792
[SIR (P)] −3.345 0.603 30.759 1 0.000 −4.527 −2.163
[SIR (F)] −1.875 0.551 11.580 1 0.001 −2.955 −0.795
[SIR (G)] −1.077 0.539 3.989 1 0.046 −2.134 −0.020
Location Cracking −0.083 0.018 21.856 1 0.000 −0.117 −0.048
Rutting −0.167 0.082 4.213 1 0.040 −0.327 −0.008
IRI 0.003 0.188 0.000 1 0.988 −0.366 0.372

Table 4. Parameter estimates for ordinal logistic SIR model with RANK2 (AC network).
95% Confidence interval
Estimate Std. error Wald df Sig. Lower bound Upper bound
Threshold [SIR (VP)] −5.073 0.760 44.616 1 0.000 −6.562 −3.585
[SIR (P)] −3.161 0.613 26.617 1 0.000 −4.362 −1.960
[SIR (G)] −0.952 0.551 2.990 1 0.084 −2.031 0.127
Location Cracking −0.079 0.018 19.000 1 0.000 −0.115 −0.044
Rutting −0.165 0.084 3.852 1 0.050 −0.329 0.000
IRI 0.044 0.194 0.052 1 0.820 −0.366 0.425

Table 5. Parameter estimates for ordinal logistic SIR model with RANK1 (SS network).
95% Confidence interval
Estimate Std. error Wald df Sig. Lower bound Upper bound
Threshold [SIR (VP)] −2.429 0.270 81.189 1 0.000 −2.958 −1.901
[SIR (P)] −0.339 0.180 3.567 1 0.059 −0.692 0.013
[SIR (F)] 0.816 0.197 17.151 1 0.000 0.430 1.203
[SIR (G)] 2.358 0.322 53.745 1 0.000 1.728 2.989
Location Cracking −0.078 0.015 27.485 1 0.000 −0.108 −0.049

Table 6. Parameter estimates for ordinal logistic SIR model with RANK2 (SS network).
95% Confidence interval
Estimate Std. error Wald df Sig. Lower bound Upper bound
Threshold [SIR (VP)] −2.427 0.270 80.616 1 0.000 −2.957 −1.897
[SIR (P)] −0.337 0.181 3.487 1 0.062 −0.691 0.017
[SIR (G)] 2.359 0.322 53.756 1 0.000 1.728 2.990
Location Cracking −0.078 0.015 27.103 1 0.000 −0.108 −0.049

the probability of being in one or below the stated category
predicted from the given pavement distresses. If a pavement
section is affected within 25% area by crack and rut depth of
12 mm, the logit value to estimate the probabilities for ‘Very
Poor’ surface condition is to be computed as follows:
Logit(≤ VP) = −5.274 − (−0.083 × 25) − (−0.167 × 12)
= −1.995. Likewise, the parameter estimates from Table 6
convey the following predicted logits [Equations (13(i))–(13
(iii))] for the SS network.
Logit(≤ VP) = −2.427 − (−0.078 × cracking)
Logit(≤ P) = −0.337 − (−0.078 × cracking)
Logit(≤ G) = 2.359 − (−0.078 × cracking)
The estimated probabilities for the AC network, obtained
from aforementioned Equations (5)–(8), are presented graphi-
cally in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. In plotting the
models, one pavement condition parameter is considered as
a predictor and the other one is kept as constant at its mean
value. Category with the maximum estimated probability for
a given value of cracking/rutting is regarded as the predicted
surface condition for a road segment with that distress value.
In practical, quantified values of both cracking and rutting
for a pavement section from objective survey are to be used
to estimate the probabilities.
Figure 2 depicts that an AC network (RANK1) pavement
section is most likely to be in ‘Very Good’ surface condition
until around 15% area fissured by cracking, next to the fair sur-
face condition up to 28% are affected, and in poor surface con-
dition up to 50%. Lastly, when the cracking involved area
(13(i)) exceeds 50% of the total area of a pavement section, the prob-
ability of a section being in ‘Very Poor’ condition is expected,
(13(ii))
which is rational. Thereafter, Figure 2 shows that for the
‘Good’ condition the SIR model fails to correctly predict the
(13(iii))
pavement surface condition. In a similar way, Figure 3, for
RANK1, shows that pavement section is expected to be in
‘Very Good’ condition up to about 8 mm rut depth, afterward
‘Fair’ condition up to 14 mm, and then ‘Poor’ condition up to
26 mm rut depth. Sections with rutting >26 mm are presumed
to be in ‘Very Poor’ condition, which is pragmatic. Therefore,
the model for ‘Good’ condition, with rutting as a predictor,

cannot predict the probabilities appropriately as well. This may
be because the number of pavement sections with good ratings
is smaller than sections with very good and fair conditions.
Most of the pavement sections of AC networks were found
to be in ‘Very Good’ and ‘Fair’ conditions. Likewise, the
models for RANK2 in Figure 2 and Figure 3 can be interpreted
as well to predict the pavement surface conditions.
Further, it is apparent from Figure 4 that the model for the
SS network (RANK2) is unable to predict well for ‘Very Good’
condition, possibly because the quantity of pavement sections
in very good condition is small for the SS network. However,
the SIR model predicts that the probability of sections being
in good condition is high up to 6% area affected by cracking.
When cracking value is between 6% and 26%, ‘Poor’ condition
is expected. Once cracking is greater than 26%, ‘Very Poor’
pavement surface condition is most likely. Additionally, with
RANK 1, in Figure 4, the models for ‘Very Good’, ‘Good’
and ‘Fair’ conditions are not able to predict the surface con-
dition of a pavement section accurately. The probabilities of
Figure 2. Predicted pavement surface condition probabilities (automated rutting is constant at mean value of 4.56 mm) using logistic SIR model (AC network).
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 7
being in ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’ condition can be predicted as
elaborated for other models.
The classification from SPSS crosstab, permits us to deter-
mine the number of events with correctly predicted observed
SIR. In case of AC network, the highest success rate of the
logistic models, evaluated from the correctly predicted SIR
values, is almost 51% with RANK1, and it is 46% with
RANK2 for the SS network. The summary of the evaluation
of the developed models is briefly presented in Table 7.
4.5. Validation of the ordinal logistic models for the
pavement surface condition
The developed ordinal logistic models for pavement surface
condition were validated by comparing predicted weighted
average condition rating with observed rating of the pavement
sections for both networks. Thus, the scaled squared residual
of SIR was calculated for each pavement section to investigate
the difference between observed/actual and predicted SIR
8 T. TASMIN ET AL.
Figure 3. Predicted pavement surface condition probabilities (directly measured cracking is constant at mean value of 8.255%) using logistic SIR model (AC network).
value. To estimate the weighted average condition rating, the
probabilities of each condition category were multiplied by
the midpoint of corresponding category SIR range and there-
after adding the products. Thus, in the case of AC network
(RANK1), the SIR category midpoints are 5, 13, 18, 25.5,
35.5 for ‘Very Good’ ‘Good’, ‘Fair’, ‘Poor’, and ‘Very Poor’
conditions, respectively. Likewise, in the SS network
(RANK2), the mid values for condition categories are: VG =
5, G = 15.5, P = 25.5, and VP = 35.5. The predicted probabil-
ities of the five condition categories for the pavement sections
were obtained from the SPSS output. Thus, weighted average
condition rating (expected/predicted rating) of a pavement
section with cracking value 2.5 (% area affected) and actual
SIR = 12, was estimated as below:
Predicted SIR = 0.01 × 35.5 + 0.06 × 25.5 + 0.18
× 18 + 0.18 × 13 + 0.57 × 5
= 10.315
Hence,
Scaled squared residual of SIR
= (Observed SIR–Predicted SIR)2 /Predicted SIR
= (12 – 10.315)2 /10.315 = 0.2753
The scatter plot (Figure 5) explicates that the squared
difference between actual SIR value and predicted SIR
value is relatively small (scaled squared residual < 10) for
more than 86% of pavement segments and small (scaled
squared residual < 5) for more than 66% of pavement seg-
ments for RANK1 in the AC network. For RANK2, more
than 84% pavement sections (scaled squared residual < 10)
have relatively small difference and more than 67% sections
have small difference (scaled squared residual < 5) between
observed and expected SIR value. In the case of SS network
(Figure 6), the difference is small (scaled squared residual <
5) for more than 84% pavement segments for RANK2.
Therefore, the developed ordinal logistic models are valid
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 9

Figure 4. Predicted pavement surface condition probabilities using logistic SIR model (SS network).

for both networks. Since the SIR model for RANK1 in the SS
network fails to predict three pavement surface conditions it
is assumed that this model is not suitable for use and hence,
was not analysed for validation.
5. Summary and conclusions
A set of relationships between manual pavement surface con-
dition ratings and quantified condition parameters were devel-
oped for bituminous granular roads to help the practitioners in
triggering periodic resurfacing programs at the network level.
The condition parameters include cracking, rutting, texture
loss, and roughness. In the current study, 160 pavement
sections comprising of asphalt surfaced and 190 sections of
sprayed seal surfaced, located at the metro-region of Victoria,
were used to develop linear regression models and probabilis-
tic cumulative logistic models.
The best-fitting linear regression model implies a low per-
centage of variation in SIR. Cracking and rutting were proved
to be statistically significant predictors in the AC network. In
addition, only cracking is found to be a statistically significant
predictor of SIR value in the SS network. Further, the Factorial
ANOVA tests elucidate that cracking and rutting (as categori-
cal variables) interact significantly with each other in the AC
network. The interaction results from this study support the
pavement distress mechanisms, and it can be inferred that

Table 7. Summary of pavement surface condition logistic models.

Model Goodness of Likelihood ratio Nagelkerke Significant logit % Categories with maximum
Network RANK type fit test measure parameters Success probabilities
AC RANK1 Ordinal Retained Significant 25% Cracking and Rutting 51% SIR = 0–10 (Very good)
RANK2 Ordinal Retained Significant 23% Cracking and Rutting 49% SIR = 0–10 (Very good)
SS RANK1 Ordinal Retained Significant 17% Cracking 40% SIR = 21–30 (Poor)
RANK2 Ordinal Retained Significant 17% Cracking 46% SIR = 11–15 (Good)
10 T. TASMIN ET AL.
Figure 5. Scaled squared residual of SIR as a function of objectively collected cracking (AC network).
the interaction effect between cracking and rutting can be con-
sidered in determining pavement surface condition for the
asphalt surfaced network.
Developed ordinal logistic models predict pavement surface
conditions from objective distresses (cracking/rutting). The
developed models were validated by the scaled squared
residuals of SIR. These models can be used to predict pave-
ment surface condition, with provided quantified distress
values. Here, the category with the maximum probability of
a road section is the most likely condition for the section,
and that can help the road asset managers to rank the pave-
ment sections for resurfacing prioritisation for practical pur-
pose. Thus, it is anticipated that the findings from this study
will provide more information in how to reduce the time,
expense, and hazard risk of concerned evaluators in pavement
surface condition monitoring, and therefore, reducing the
need for visual inspection surveys.
The AC network SIR models outperform the SS network
SIR models for both RANK1 and RANK2. The SIR models
for the SS network include only cracking since deformation
data were not consistent with measured rutting data. The
reason may include the lack of data integrity between manual
and quantified pavement surface distress in the SS network
than that of the AC network. The ordinal logistic models
developed in this study cannot predict subjective ratings that
consider the total range of SIR due to the data deficiency of
pavement sections with high ratings. The asphalt surfaced
road network model is unable to predict the ‘Good’ condition,

Figure 6. Scaled squared residual of SIR as a function of objectively collected cracking (SS network).
and the sprayed sealed network model cannot predict well the
‘Very Good’ condition. Therefore, it is suggested that these
ordinal logistic models be improved on the availability of a
greater number of data, covering the entire range of SIR.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge Associate Professor Rayya Hassan
for her initial guidance in this research and providing the relevant data
from VicRoads, Australia. The findings of this paper are the views of
the authors and do not correspond to the views of VicRoads.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
ORCID
Tamina Tasmin http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7459-5399
References
Abiola, O. and Kupolati, W.K., 2014. Modelling present serviceability rat-
ing of highway using artificial neural network. OIDA International
Journal of Sustainable Development, 7 (01), 91–98.
Aguinis, H. and Gottfredson, R.K., 2010. Best-practice recommendations
for estimating interaction effects using moderated multiple regression.
Journal of Organizational Behavior, 31 (6), 776–786.
Ahmed, S., Vedagiri, P., and Rao, K.K., 2017. Prioritization of pavement
maintenance sections using objective based analytic hierarchy process.
International Journal of Pavement Research and Technology, 10 (2),
158–170.
Bandara, N. and Gunaratne, M., 2001. Current and future pavement
maintenance prioritization based on rapid visual condition evaluation.
Journal of Transportation Engineering, 127 (2), 116–123.
Choummanivong, L. and Martin, T., 2014. Interim road deterioration
cracking model during accelerated deterioration. 1925037428.
Dang, K., 2017. Pavement management strategic plan. Available from:
https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/about-vicroads/our-strategy/
pavement-management-strategic-plan.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 11
Erkan, A. and Yildiz, Z., 2014. Parallel lines assumption in ordinal logistic
regression and analysis approaches. International Interdisciplinary
Journal of Scientific Research, 1, 8–23.
Farhan, J. and Fwa, T., 2009. Pavement maintenance prioritization using
analytic hierarchy process. Transportation Research Record, 2093 (1),
12–24.
Fuentes, L., et al., 2019. Modelling pavement serviceability of urban roads
using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. International Journal
of Pavement Engineering, 1–10. doi:10.1080/10298436.2019.1577422.
Gharaibeh, N.G., Zou, Y., and Saliminejad, S., 2009. Assessing the agree-
ment among pavement condition indexes. Journal of Transportation
Engineering, 136 (8), 765–772.
Hassan, R., Lin, O., and Thananjeyan, A., 2017. Probabilistic modelling of
flexible pavement distresses for network management. International
Journal of Pavement Engineering, 18 (3), 216–227.
Henning, T.F., 2008. The development of pavement deterioration models
on the state highway network of New Zealand. ResearchSpace@
Auckland.
Henning, T. and Roux, D., 2012. A probabilistic approach for modelling
deterioration of asphalt surfaces. Journal of the South African
Institution of Civil Engineering, 54 (2), 36–44.
Hill, T., et al., 1994. Artificial neural network models for forecasting and
decision making. International Journal of Forecasting, 10 (1), 5–15.
Hong, H. and Wang, S., 2003. Stochastic modeling of pavement perform-
ance. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 4 (4), 235–243.
Karim, F.M., Rubasi, K.A.H., and Saleh, A.A., 2016. The road pavement
condition index (PCI) evaluation and maintenance: a case study of
Yemen. Organization, Technology and Management in Construction:
an International Journal, 8 (1), 1446–1455.
Khraibani, H., et al., 2010. Nonlinear mixed-effects model for the evalu-
ation and prediction of pavement deterioration. Journal of
Transportation Engineering, 138 (2), 149–156.
Liu, X. and Koirala, H., 2012. Ordinal regression analysis:
using generalized ordinal logistic regression models to estimate
educational data. Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 11
(1), 21.
Loprencipe, G. and Pantuso, A., 2017. A specified procedure for distress
identification and assessment for urban road surfaces based on PCI.
Coatings, 7 (5), 65.
Martin, T., et al., 2015. Further development of probabilistic road deterio-
ration modelling: pilot application. 1925294404.
Mubaraki, M., 2009. Predicting pavement condition deterioration for the
Saudi inter-urban road network. Paper presented at the Material
Design, Construction, Maintenance, and Testing of
12 T. TASMIN ET AL.
Pavements: Selected Papers from the 2009 GeoHunan International
Conference.
Myers, R.H. and Myers, R.H., 1990. Classical and modern regression with
applications. Vol. 2. Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press.
Ong, G.P., Noureldin, S., and Sinha, K.C., 2009. Methodology to evaluate
quality of pavement surface distress data collected by automated tech-
niques. Transportation Research Record, 2093 (1), 3–11.
Peng, C.-Y.J., Lee, K.L., and Ingersoll, G.M., 2002. An introduction to
logistic regression analysis and reporting. The Journal of Educational
Research, 96 (1), 3–14.
Porras-Alvarado, J.D., Zhang, Z., and Salazar, L.G.L., 2014. Probabilistic
approach to modeling pavement performance using IRI data. Paper pre-
sented at the Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting.
Shah, Y.U., Jain, S., and Parida, M., 2014. Evaluation of prioriti-
zation methods for effective pavement maintenance of urban
roads. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 15 (3),
238–250.
VicRoads, 2004. Surface inspection rating procedure for pavements sur-
faced with sprayed seals and asphalt. Melbourne: VicRoads.
Wang, Y., 2012. Ordinal logistic regression model for predicting AC over-
lay cracking. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, 27 (3),
346–353.
Zakeri, H., Nejad, F.M., and Fahimifar, A., 2017. Image based techniques
for crack detection, classification and quantification in asphalt pave-
ment: a review. Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering,
24 (4), 935–977.