Confidential Weekly Edition

Pakistan Security and Political Situation Report & Threat Analysis

Date: March 13, 2011
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Pakistan-India Relations, Kashmir and External Defense Analysis. Eastern F ront:

Taking their 4 th GW and propaganda war to the next level, Indians are now planning to exploit the world cup stage to build another false flag operation to blame Pakistan. In the past almost all terrorist acts in India lead back either to the Indian secret services and their saffron terrorist networks or were the acts of indigenous homegrown insurgencies in the Indian federation.

But Indians were always aggressive to blame and nail Pakistan, LeT and ISI for the acts. We see with great concern when Indians continue to build the psy-ops for yet another terror attack to be blamed in Pakistan and ISI. ---------------------------------------------------------------LeT targets stadiums in India: report ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Correspondent NEW DELHI, March 8: Indias intelligence agencies have unearthed a suspected Lashkar-eTaiba (LeT) conspiracy to attack one or more venues of the ongoing World Cup cricket matches in India, The Hindu said on Tuesday.In its report from Chennai, it said specific inputs had been communicated to Tamil Nadu and other Indian states, where the matches are to be played... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/09/let-targets-stadiums-in-india-report.html

Last week, we had explained the Indian strategy against Pakistan. The events and their dynamics continue to unfold exactly as predicted: On the diplomatic levels, there are talks of peace which are nothing but the eye wash and the attempt to gain time. On practical and military levels, there are preparations for war! War is being waged against Pakistan on 4 major axis. Through assets in TTP and BLA, drawing Pakistan towards western front in a high intensity counter insurgency war. Preparations are on for a high intensity war on international border for which Cold Start doctrine is being polished. Water war to starve or flood Pakistan through construction of dams and barrages on major rivers entering Pakistan. Information and Media war to dilute the identity and ideology of Pakistan and to spread the doctrine of Aman Ki Asha, the peace initiative through civil society. The invitations for talks on Kashmir are also part of this deception strategy. Pakistan remains in a state of war. Government remains in a state of denial despite the threats and insurgencies, still treating it as a local law and order security issues rather than a total 4 th generation war on the state from Afghanistan by the Indian RAW and their TTP/BLA assets. Indians could not have hoped for a more supportive environment in Pakistan for their 4 th GW While the government in Islamabad remains intoxicated with power and corruption, the military is observing the above threats with great concern. Both army and the PAF remain alive and alert to the threats but the Navy remains the weakest link in the equation. There is an aggressive modernization and development program in both army and the PAF as Pakistan is literally surrounded by India from all sides due to a heavy Indian footprint in Afghanistan and the Indian Ocean. ---------------------------------------------------------------Pakistan plans to buy more F-16s ---------------------------------------------------------------By Anwar Iqbal WASHINGTON, March 9: Pakistan is trying to purchase used F-16 fighter jets from the United States to enhance its air capabilities, diplomatic sources told Dawn.We will take as many as they are willing to give, said a diplomatic source when asked how many of these aircraft Pakistan was seeking... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/10/pakistan-plans-to-buy-more-f-16s.html

---------------------------------------------------------------N-capable missile test-fired ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter ISLAMABAD, March 11: Pakistan successfully test-fired on Friday a short-range, surfaceto-surface ballistic missile Hataf-2 (Abdali).The test conducted at an undisclosed location was part of the process of validation and technical improvement in the land-based ballistic missile systems... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/n-capable-missile-test-fired.html

4th generation war against Pakistan is supposed to be a low intensity war to soften the State enough for a final high intensity surprise invasion by the Indians under the Cold start doctrine. Declaring Pakistan a terrorist sate and isolating it in the global community as rogue country remains an integral part of this 4th GW and we are seeing all the signs that Indians are aggressively working towards that end. Pakistans information warfare departments Information ministry and ISPR have collapsed entirely to respond to the threats being faced by the country. In the absence of covering fire of the information warfare and counter propaganda, Pakistani state and forces remain hopelessly exposed to Indian media barrages.

Indian hostile Psy-ops Pakistani collaborators!

Indian medias unity of purpose attack and isolate Pakistan! Indian bollywood film industry is acting as an extension of Indian foreign office, churning our hundreds of films, dramas and plays directed against Pakistani audience to dilute the Pakistani identity and ideology and to homogenize it with the Indian culture, language and values. This media invasion on Pakistan is so total that now even the mainstream news channels and the state owned PTV is routinely airing Indian content without any censuring or controls. Entire Islamabad is flooded with hundreds of posters, ads, banners and pics of Indian actresses and almost every ad by multinational companies has Indian content or

actresses. Indian movies are being aired in Pakistani cities even to the extent that even all military garrisons run and show Indian channels. This is ironic considering the fact that no Pakistani content, movie or program can be aired on Indian channels and there is no question of Pakistani channels being aired in Indian cities or garrisons. Indian companies have bought heavy shares in major Pakistani channels controlling their contents and editorials.

Indian and Indianized Weapons of mass deception! The analysts who are monitoring this Indian media war against Pakistan are convinced that government of PPP is party to this betrayal deliberately and are acting as local agents for the hostile powers to soften the country for final disintegration. While the military responds at the military levels, it does not and cannot manage the economy nor the ideological subversion being done against the state by the Indian media, especially when militarys own organization ISPR also remains headless, directionless and disorientated to even know the extent of the damage already caused, let alone develop a response to it. This defeat in the information war is the greatest single contributing factor in creating psychological, political, religious and diplomatic anarchy in Pakistani society, politics and government. Still, there is no awareness neither in the government nor in Pakistani media.

Pakistans Legal Queen (Asma Jahangir, chairman Supreme Court bar) dressed in Saffron, conspiring with hardcore Hindu saffron terrorist Bal Thakrey!

Western Theatre:
US is now desperate to seek assurance from Pakistan over continued NATO supplies and Pakistans support to US war in Afghanistan. We can see a high degree of panic in Washington as relations deteriorated rapidly in the past few weeks over Davis. US endgame in Afghanistan would be a total disaster and military catastrophe is Pakistan pulls the plug on Afghan operation. --------------------------------------------------------------Grossman arrives on two-day visit ---------------------------------------------------------------By Baqir Sajjad Syed ISLAMABAD, March 6: US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman started on Sunday his two-day visit to Islamabad, the first in his new capacity as the regional envoy, apparently to seek whole-hearted Pakistani cooperation in the Afghan end-game.He started his Islamabad visit by meeting Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/07/grossman-arrives-on-two-day-visit.html

Last week, we had given the following assessment of the developments on western theatre and Pak-US relations: US is now firmly and fully defensive, mild and docile over the Davis issue, also shocked and surprised over the firmness of the ISI and the Pakistani nation in responding to the US threats and blackmail. ISI and CIA are now engaged in a ruthless spy war. Having failed to secure the release of their CIA terrorist involved in espionage and sabotage, US administration is now cautious not to jeopardize the lives and operations of their military in Afghanistan whose supplies pass through Pakistan also. This is a major diplomatic and political as well as military defeat for US administration and their secret service. They have been caught in the act and now are desperate not to dig deeper while trapped in a hole. On the other hand, it is ISI which is defining its terms and rules of engagement for future cooperation with the CIA. US also know that there is nothing they can do against Pakistan now except to come to terms being offered by ISI. Davis debacle has changed the rules of the game for the CIA for worse!

US have calmed down considerably over Davis and are now letting the issue cool off a bit both in media as well as in diplomacy, though the arrested CIA terrorist remains high on bilateral agenda. The pressure from the army and ISI and the national mood does not allow the political government to compromise on the arrested CIA man otherwise this PPP regime just cannot take this much pressure from the US. ---------------------------------------------------------------US envoy insists on immediate release of Davis ---------------------------------------------------------------By Baqir Sajjad Syed ISLAMABAD, March 7: The United States made it clear to Pakistani authorities in talks here on Monday that it wanted immediate release of jailed CIA operative Raymond Davis and that

there would be no business as usual until the matter was resolved, even though Washington desperately needed Islamabads help for a negotiated settlement of the Afghan war.I think, Im confident that we can resolve this (Davis) problem and once we do we can get back to business ... we can build the relationship between the United States and Pakistan, US Special Representative Marc Grossman said at a meeting with a group of journalists... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/08/us-envoy-insists-on-immediate-release-of-davis.html

---------------------------------------------------------------No back-door solution to Davis case, says Gilani ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD, March 7: Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has ruled out any back-door solution to the case of an American official for whom Washington is seeking diplomatic immunity from trial in Pakistan for shooting to death two youths on a Lahore street. I stand with the people of Pakistan on the issue of American citizen Raymond Davis, he told reporters after addressing a Seerat conference here on Monday... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/08/no-back-door-solution-to-davis-case-says-gilani.html US is using the threats of economic assistance freeze on this PPP government which is now crushed between a rock and a hard place. They are doomed if they release Davis and are doomed of they dont. The government is behaving ridiculously in front of the courts and the nation and their confusion and panic is too obvious. ---------------------------------------------------------------US resolution links aid to Daviss release ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Correspondent WASHINGTON, March 9: A resolution moved in the US House of Representatives urges Pakistan to release Raymond Davis or brace itself for a freeze on all monetary assistance. Congress is scheduled to deliberate on US aid to Pakistan later this month. The House of Representatives calls on the government of Pakistan to release Raymond Davis in accordance with international standards of diplomatic protocol and, until such time, all US monetary assistance to Pakistan should be frozen, says the resolution, moved by Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a California Republican... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/10/us-resolution-links-aid-to-daviss-release.html ---------------------------------------------------------------Davis immunity: govt likely to ask LHC for more time ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD: The government kept its cards close to its chest on Saturday, the last working day before it is to testify in the Lahore High Court (LHC) on jailed CIA operative Raymond Daviss diplomatic status. Indications of the possibility of the government sticking to its time buying tactics were, nevertheless, quite evident. None of the government spokespersons was ready to say anything on the strategy in the Davis case. Instead they suggested waiting till Monday. http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/13/davis-immunity-govt-likely-to-ask-lhc-for-more-time.html

Davis crisis has given a new confidence to the Pakistani military and the nation that they can stand up to the US and exploit the US vulnerabilities in the region to undo all the wrongs which have been done to Pakistan in the last 10 years in the name of war on terror. It has exposed Pakistans strengths and US vulnerabilities in the region as well as US desperation and dependence on Pakistan to find a respectable exit from Afghanistan. A super power like US would hate to be so helplessly dependent upon Pakistan for its survival but now it stands exposed and is being forced to come to terms being offered by GHQ and ISI. This is a new Pakistan US is dealing with now and they are hating it!

Political / Economic Axis:

The government remains committed to a political implosion and economic meltdown!. It cannot get sillier or more audacious than what this regime continues to do to stay in power. Now the government is in head-on collision course with the Supreme Court also even staging strikes and demonstrations which have resulted in massive loss of lives and property in Sindh. Now this government-SC clash has been taken to a new level where the Zardari regime decides to take on the Supreme Court in full defiance of its orders. On top of this, the chief executive had the cheek the say that they are not in a clash with the apex court! --------------------------------------------------------------Govt papers on FIA chief a joke: SC ---------------------------------------------------------------By Nasir Iqbal ISLAMABAD, March 11: The Supreme Court on Friday described the governments consistent obduracy in retaining the services of Waseem Ahmad as FIAs Director General because of national security reasons as an excuse to flout its orders and a violation of the constitutional right of equality.Nobody likes the independent decisions of this court but the culture is changing and come what may we are here to perform our role, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry said... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/govt-papers-on-fia-chief-a-joke-sc.html

---------------------------------------------------------------PPP strike paralyses Sindh ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter KARACHI, March 11: Sindh came to a standstill on Friday as a complete strike was observed across the province on a call given by the Peoples Party in protest against the removal of National Accountability chairman Syed Deedar Husain Shah on the orders of the Supreme Court. Processions were taken out and token hunger strikes were observed to voice frustration over the decision... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/ppp-strike-paralyses-sindh.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Zardari moves to reappoint Justice Deedar Shah ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD, March 11: The latest chapter of the executive-judiciary thriller ended on an exciting note on Friday when in a late-night development President Asif Ali Zardari proposed the reappointment of Justice (retd) Deedar Hussain Shah as chairman of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). The latter had been removed from the office by the Supreme Court only a day earlier.The president proposed this in two separate letters addressed to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan to meet the mandatory consultative process, Farhatullah Babar, spokesman for the president, said... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/zardari-moves-to-reappoint-justice-deedar-shah.html ---------------------------------------------------------------No clash with judiciary: Gilani ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter KARACHI, March 11: Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has rejected a perception about a clash between the judiciary and the government and parliament and said the concept of trichotomy of powers is about exercising authority and determining the parameters of each institution.Talking to editors and senior journalists at Governors House here on Friday, he said the government had met the requirement of consultation for the appointment of Justice (retd) Syed Deedar Hussain Shah as chairman of the National Accountability Bureau... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/no-clash-with-judiciary-gilani.html

On another axis, the PPP regime remains locked in a death battle with the provincial government of Punjab. PML (N), the ruling party is so desperate now that it is even inviting army and the judiciary to come to the rescue of the nation, a message which is being interpreted as an invitation for a judicial or a military coup! ---------------------------------------------------------------N reaffirms judiciary, army proposal ---------------------------------------------------------------By Amir Wasim ISLAMABAD, March 9: The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (N) on Wednesday said it considered the army and the judiciary major stakeholders in the countrys national affairs as it justified Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharifs controversial call for inviting representatives of the two institutions at a proposed all-party conference to prepare a broadbased national agenda to steer the country out of crisis.Since the countrys constitution has assigned roles to both the judiciary and the army, besides the executive, the call for inviting the army chief and the chief justice for consultation on national issues is not something extraconstitutional, PML-N spokesman Ahsan Iqbal told a joint news conference with the partys former information secretary, Siddiqul Farooque, and MNA Dr Tariq Fazal Chaudhry at the partys central secretariat here... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/10/n-reaffirms-judiciary-army-proposal.html

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PPP government responds with turning Punjab assembly into a chaotic mess taking headon clash with the ruling PML(N) also. ---------------------------------------------------------------Uproar over turncoats rattles Punjab Assembly ---------------------------------------------------------------By Amjad Mahmood LAHORE, March 11: No business could be transacted in the Punjab Assembly when its 23rd session started here on Friday as re-aligned treasury and opposition benches descended to sloganeering against each other, rejecting appeals by the speaker to maintain order in the house. It was the first session after the break-up between the PML-N and PPP coalition in Punjab... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/uproar-over-turncoats-rattles-punjab-assembly.html

On third axis, in Sindh, PPP also went into war with MQM creating more crises for itself. MQM are master blackmailers and are fully exploiting the weaknesses of the crumbling regime. ---------------------------------------------------------------Zulfiqar Mirza, Muttahida in fresh war of words ---------------------------------------------------------------By Habib Khan Ghori and Azfar-ul-Ashfaque KARACHI, March 6: A fresh war of words between the Sindh Home Minister and Muttahida Qaumi Movement erupted on Sunday after Dr Zulfiqar Mirza said that the Peoples Amn Committee was a sister organisation of the PPP and dubbing all its members as criminals would be tantamount to levelling the same allegation against him. The MQM said the statement meant the ministers open support for criminals and terrorists and said it was considering to part ways with the PPP-led coalition government in Sindh... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/07/zulfiqar-mirza-muttahida-in-fresh-war-of-words.html

---------------------------------------------------------------PPP-MQM spat: ball again in Zardari court ---------------------------------------------------------------By Amir Wasim ISLAMABAD, March 7: A delegation of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) will meet President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday to sort out renewed tensions with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in Sindh, sparked once again by some controversial remarks of Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza.We will seek a categorical reply from the president whether he wants to take along the MQM or extortionists and criminals, Muttahidas parliamentary leader in the National Assembly Dr Farooq Sattar told Dawn, alluding to an organisation that his party does not see eye to eye with and about which Dr Mirza spoke at a public meeting in Karachis Malir area on Sunday... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/08/ppp-mqm-spat-ball-again-in-zardari-court.html

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Then the government also declared a war against former President Pervez Musharraf sending his arrest warrants to Britain. ---------------------------------------------------------------Musharraf warrant sent to Britain ---------------------------------------------------------------By Syed Irfan Raza ISLAMABAD, March 9: The government sent to the British authorities on Wednesday the arrest warrant of former president Gen (retd) Pervez Musharraf in the Benazir Bhutto assassination case.According to sources in the interior ministry, the warrant was sent by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) to Pakistans High Commission in London which forwarded it to the UK foreign affairs department... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/10/musharraf-warrant-sent-to-britain.html

Having run out of allies and friends, Zardari turns towards enemies for alliance to keeps his government floating. It is a desperate situation now for the PPP. ---------------------------------------------------------------Zardari asks PML-Q to join government ---------------------------------------------------------------ISLAMABAD: Amid rising tensions with the opposition PML-N and coalition partner MQM, the ruling PPP has made the most intimate contact to date with the second largest opposition party, PML-Q, sparking fresh speculations about the probability of cooperation between the two major parties. Sources close to the Peoples Party told Dawn on Saturday that President Asif Ali Zardari had made an offer to the Pakistan Muslim League-Q to join the federal government. http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/13/zardari-asks-pml-q-to-join-government.html But the problems for Zardari do not end at political arena. His government is now officially bankrupt and do not have the money to either run daily expenses or to make the budget in the next couple of months. The strategy of Beg-BorrowSteel remains the sole survival method. Now IMF is exploiting this economic mess to demand severe taxes which would further generate massive resentment against the government and cause economic meltdown. ---------------------------------------------------------------Govt may seek new IMF programme ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Reporter ISLAMABAD, March 7: The government is expected to seek a fresh programme from the International Monetary Fund with a pre-condition of introducing the controversial reformed general sales tax on goods and services and provincial taxes on agricultural income and real estate from July 1.A senior government official told Dawn on Monday that a visiting mission of the IMF and the government had finalised monthly budgetary targets for the current month... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/08/govt-may-seek-new-imf-programme.html

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---------------------------------------------------------------Talks with IMF: Govt promises to increase power tariff ---------------------------------------------------------------By Khaleeq Kiani ISLAMABAD, March 11: Without reviving its suspended standby arrangement programme, the government has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will increase electricity tariff by 2 per cent and reduce fiscal deficit through tougher controls on expenditure and additional tax measures to avoid a formal severing of relations with the lending agency.The 11-day inconclusive talks between the government and an IMF mission witnessed a lot of ups and downs as the authorities struggled to convince the agency to stay engaged with Pakistan despite failure to introduce economic reforms and come up with clear decision to implement taxation measures, including 15-per cent flood surcharge on income tax... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/talks-with-imf-govt-promises-to-increase-powertariff.html

It is not less than a political miracle that PPP regime has survived this far despite such massive corruption, bad governance and hostility towards allies and opposition parties as well as towards Supreme Court and the army. While SC and army continue to weigh their options, the governments continue to push their luck dangerously. It cannot go on this for long. The explosion would be violent unless the state organs SC and army, intervene and correct the dangerous imbalance.

Now we move on to internal security issues.

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With a collapsed judicial system and no fear of l aw within the insurgents, TTP continued its rampage in the country. Security forces are hitting them where they are visible but within the mainland, TTP continues to draw serious blood.

---------------------------------------------------------------At least 25 killed in car bomb attack: TERROR CARNAGE IN FAISALABAD ---------------------------------------------------------------By Mohammad Saleem FAISALABAD, March 8: Terrorists struck Punjabs industrial hub of Faisalabad with a car bomb which exploded at a CNG filling station on Tuesday. At least 25 people were killed and 131 others injured.According to a Western agency report, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/09/at-least-25-killed-in-car-bomb-attack-in-faisalabad.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Suicide attack on funeral prayer leaves 43 dead, 52 injured ---------------------------------------------------------------By Ali Hazrat Bacha PESHAWAR, March 9: A suicide bomber killed 43 people and wounded 52 others in an attack on a funeral prayer for the wife of a volunteer of Qaumi Lashkar in Adezai village near here on Wednesday.The bomber blew himself up soon after the prayers had begun. It was the second suicide attack on the Lashkar, which has been fighting the Taliban since 2008 in the village, about 35km from Peshawar cantonment... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/10/suicide-attack-on-funeral-prayer-leaves-43-dead-52injured.html

---------------------------------------------------------------Eight killed, seven injured in attack on bus in Hangu ---------------------------------------------------------------PESHAWAR: Militants opened fire on a passenger van in a lawless northwestern Pakistani town on Sunday, killing at least eight Shia Muslims and wounding seven others, police said. The incident took place in Hangu district, 150 kilometres southwest of Peshawar, the capital of insurgency-hit Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province. Militants intercepted a passenger van at Mamoo Khwar village in Hangu district and opened fire, killing eight passengers and wounding seven others, senior local police official Abdul Rashid told AFP. http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/13/seven-killed-in-attack-on-bus-in-hangu.html

---------------------------------------------------------------15 militants killed in shelling, shoot-out ---------------------------------------------------------------Dawn Report PARACHINAR / GHALANAI, March 6: Ten militants were killed in shelling by helicopter gunships in Kurram Agency, five others died in an exchange of fire with security forces in Swat and a volunteer of peace committee lost his life in militants attack on a security post in Mohmand on Sunday.Official sources said that helicopter gunships attacked militant hideouts in Chinarak and Spairkat areas of central Kurram along the Orakzai agency border. Ten

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militants were killed and eight others injured... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/07/15-militants-killed-in-shelling-shoot-out.html ---------------------------------------------------------------Speculations grow about operation in N. Waziristan ---------------------------------------------------------------PESHAWAR: The federal government has directed the Fata Disaster Management Authority to prepare a contingency plan for thousands of families likely to be uprooted after a military operation in North Waziristan Agency, an official told Dawn on Saturday. The official said about 50,000 families (roughly 500,000 individuals) could be displaced from the agency, where speculations about the military operation against militants have been doing the rounds for quite some time. http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/13/speculations-grow-about-operation-in-n-waziristan.html

US drone strikes continue in the region as well with serious damage to local lives and property. These controversial strikes have generated more anger and hatred towards the state of Pakistan and armed forces than doing any good. Militants use these are an excuse to launch more attacks in the mainland Pakistan.

---------------------------------------------------------------10 militants killed in two US drone attacks ---------------------------------------------------------------Dawn Report MIRAMSHAH/WANA, March 8: Ten suspected militants were killed in two US drone attacks in North and South Waziristan on Tuesday.Official sources said that three missiles fired by a drone hit the house of Fazal Karam in Landi Dag area, about 7 km south of Wana bazaar, in the afternoon, killing five militants and injuring two others. The missiles destroyed two rooms of the house and damaged three others... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/09/10-militants-killed-in-two-us-drone-attacks.html ---------------------------------------------------------------10 killed in drone attacks ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Correspondent MIRAMSHAH, March 11: US drones attacked two vehicles and later volunteers carrying out rescue work in North Waziristan on Friday, killing eight suspected militants and two civilians. The attacks were carried out in Mirali and Spinwam tehsils, considered to be Taliban bastions. According to local people, four missiles were fired on a pick-up going from Mirali to Khaisoor village. Four people were killed... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/12/10-killed-in-drone-attacks.html

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---------------------------------------------------------------US drone strike kills six militants ---------------------------------------------------------------PESHAWAR: A US drone strike targeting a rebel vehicle and a compound on Sunday killed six militants and wounded five others in a Pakistani tribal region near the Afghan border, officials said.The unmanned aircraft fired missiles in mountainous Spalga village, 15 kilometres northeast of Miranshah, the main town in North Waziristan tribal district and a stronghold of Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked rebels. http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/13/us-drone-strike-kills-six-militants.html

In Baluchistan also, the BLA remained on rampage of their own, totally out of control of the provincial or federal governments. There is no government in Baluchistan and neither the will nor the means nor strategies exist there to respond to this threat. It is a self created, self inflicted crisis though easily manageable if all state organs develop a comprehensive and coherent working strategy. This is what SC is directing to provincial government. ---------------------------------------------------------------Law and order situation: SC asks Balochistan govt to seek agencies help ---------------------------------------------------------------By Nasir Iqbal ISLAMABAD, March 8: The Supreme Court hearing a petition on the law and order situation in Balochistan asked the provincial government on Tuesday to take premier intelligence agencies on board and said their cooperation could bring about a significant improvement in the situation. The chief secretary of Balochistan is directed to take into confidence the functionaries/authorities working with the Military Intelligence (MI), Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Directorate of Intelligence Bureau (IB) with a view to overcoming law and order because they are also answerable to the provincial government as well as courts under the Constitution, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry said in an order... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/09/law-and-order-situation-sc-asks-balochistan-govt-to-seekagencies-help.html

Meanwhile, state remains under attack in the province. ---------------------------------------------------------------Kidnapped judges freed after nine days ---------------------------------------------------------------By Saleem Shahid QUETTA, March 8: The kidnapped district and sessions judge and civil judge of Sibi were recovered after nine days from Bagh area of Jhal Magsi district in the early hours of Tuesday. Balochistan Home Secretary Akbar Hussain Durrani told Dawn that both the judges were released at around 3am... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/09/kidnapped-judges-freed-after-nine-days.html

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--------------------------------------------------------------Two women among seven killed in Dera Bugti blast ---------------------------------------------------------------By Our Staff Correspondent QUETTA, March 9: Seven Bugti tribal people, among them two women, were killed and several others injured in an explosion in the Dera Bugti district on Wednesday.Five employees of the Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) working in Loti area were injured in a separate blast... http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/10/two-women-among-seven-killed-in-dera-bugti-blast.html

Local 3.1 Karachi and Sindh

Analysis: Karachi remains seriously in trouble this week also and the threat level remain at 3. ---------------------------------------------------------------Three more killed in Karachi target killings ---------------------------------------------------------------KARACHI: Three more people were killed in fresh incidents of firing in Karachi on Sunday, bringing the death toll to 17 since past 36 hours. One activist of MQM and two other persons were killed today. According to details, an MQM worker was killed in Ranchor Line area and another person, Zahid, was shot dead at Jhanda Chowk in Liaquatabad. http://www.dawn.com/2011/03/13/three-more-killed-in-karachi-target-killings.html

3.2

Islamabad / Rawalpindi

Analysis Threat level due to violence is now lower in twin cities now at 2.

3.3

Lahore / Punjab

Analysis Threat levels remain in Lahore and Punjab remains at level 2.

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3.4

Peshawar / NWFP / Baluchistan / Northern Areas and AJK

Analysis: This week in Peshawar, Threat levels are at 3. Threat levels in other NWFP cities and towns like Kohat, Dera Ismail, Mardan, would be 3 for the next week also. Swat, Dir and Malakand region as well as Buner is level 3. Threat levels are at level 3 in Quetta, level 3 in tribal and interior regions. Kashmir is ok for now. Northern regions of Gilgit / Sakardu are tense but better at 3.

3.5

Current Terrorism / Security Threat Levels.

City / Region Islamabad Karachi Lahore Punjab NWFP* Peshawar Swat, Buner, Malakand Quetta Central Baluchistan / Kohlu / Dera Bugti etc. Upper / Rural Sindh Gilgit / Sakardu Kashmir Threat Level Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Level 2 Level 4 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 3 Level 2

*(Tribal areas, Parachinar, Miranshah and regions close to Afghan border)

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4.1

Threat Level Reference

Threat Level 1

No threat at all to expats, families and interests, except isolated possibilities of muggings, petty thefts and stealing. No special precaution is required in traveling.

Threat Level 2

General Law and order problem in parts of the country. Basic precaution required in traveling outstation. Caution and observation required against particular threats building up. No particular threat to families.

Threat Level 3

Serious law and order problems building up in some parts of the country. Travel restrictions may be imposed. Families to remain within Islamabad or within homes unless extremely necessary to travel. Evacuation plans may be made ready. Still livable but high degree of caution is required all the time.

Threat Level 4

Threat of Limited war, social chaos and collapse of civil administration happening or expected in certain parts of the country. Complete travel ban to be imposed towards troubled regions. All staff, families and personal to remain restricted within Islamabad or indoors. Evacuation of families and extra staff from the troubled regions can begin; keeping only a rear guard team may be kept to look after interests.

Threat Level 5

Full blown war, civil war, total collapse of law and order, invasion/occupation of the country. The rearguard team to get into their embassy and try to get out of the country.

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4.2

Map of Pakistan

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