42 Cbsnews - 20221030 - 1 Sun

CBS News Battleground Tracker – October 26-28, 2022
Registered Voters in the U.S.
2022 HOUSE ESTIMATE

R 228 – D 207 (± 12 seats)
Based on a multilevel regression and poststratification model incorporating voter responses to this survey.
Sample 2,119 Registered Voters in the U.S.

Margin of Error ±2.4%
1. Generally speaking, do you feel things in America today are going...

Very well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Somewhat well . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Somewhat badly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
Very badly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
2. How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?
Very good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Fairly good . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Fairly bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29%
Very bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Approve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Disapprove . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
4. Do you strongly/somewhat approve or strongly/somewhat disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job
as president?
Strongly approve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Somewhat approve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Somewhat disapprove . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Strongly disapprove . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
5. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2022 midterm election campaign?
Great deal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Fair amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Not very much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
None at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
1
6. As of now, do you plan to vote in the 2022 elections for U.S. Congress this November?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
May or may not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Probably won’t vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Definitely won’t vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2%
Already voted by mail or absentee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Already voted early in-person . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
7. When you don’t get a chance to vote, why is that? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY
Among those that do not, may not, probably won’t or definitely won’t vote
Sometimes I think the whole system is bad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
It’s just not something that always appeals to me . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
It wouldn’t always change things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
I don’t always have time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
It doesn’t always affect my life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14%
It’s hard to register or find voting places . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
I haven’t been old enough . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
None of the above . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
8. How [do/did] you feel about voting in the election in November?

Very enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Somewhat enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Not very enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
9. Compared to voting in a presidential election, do you feel that a vote in the congressional elections this year
matters...
More than a presidential election . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
As much as a presidential election . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63%
Less than a presidential election . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
10. In the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in the district where you live, which party’s candidate
[do you plan to/did you] vote for?
Among likely voters
Democratic candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Republican candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
Independent candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2%
Someone else . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
2
11. [Would/Did] you ever consider voting for a Republican congressional candidate this year?
Among likely voters voting for Democrats
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
12. [Would/Did] you ever consider voting for a Democratic congressional candidate this year?
Among likely voters voting for Republicans
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .82%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
16. How important [will each of these issues be/was each of these issues] in your vote for Congress this year?
Among likely voters
Very Somewhat Not too/not

important Important important
Economy 79% 18% 3%
Inflation 76% 19% 5%
Abortion 56% 21% 23%
Gun policy 62% 25% 13%
Coronavirus 27% 35% 38%
Issues of race 34% 31% 35%
Voting and election issues 63% 28% 9%
Climate change 41% 21% 38%
Immigration 61% 26% 13%
January 6th events and investigation 41% 18% 41%
Crime 65% 25% 9%
The 2020 election 44% 26% 29%
20. When you think about the next few years, if you had to choose, which is the bigger concern for you right now?
Are you most concerned about whether the U.S. will....
Among likely voters
Have a strong economy or not . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Have a functioning democracy or not . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56%
21. From what you have seen or heard, have the Democrats offered a clear plan for what they would do if they
keep control of Congress, or have they not done that yet?
Clear plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Not yet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59%
22. From what you have seen or heard, have the Republicans offered a clear plan for what they would do if they
win control of Congress, or have they not done that yet?
Clear plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Not yet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%
3
23. If Democrats control Congress next year, do you think the price of gas would...
Among likely voters
Go up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Go down . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Not be impacted either way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
24. If Republicans control Congress next year, do you think the price of gas would...
Among likely voters
Go up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Go down . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Not be impacted either way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
25. [Will your vote for Congress this year be.../Was your vote for Congress this year...]
Among likely voters
To support Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
To oppose Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Not about Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
26. [Will your vote for Congress this year be.../Was your vote for Congress this year...]
Among likely voters
To support Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
To oppose Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Not about Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
27. Do you feel like things in the U.S. today are generally...
Among likely voters
Under control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Out of control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79%
28. Which of these issues is something a political candidate MUST agree with you on to get your vote, and which
is something they could disagree on but still get your vote?
Among likely voters
Could
disagree
Must agree and still get
to get vote vote
Abortion 65% 35%
Economy 73% 27%
Immigration 66% 34%
What happened on January 6th,2021 60% 40%
Gun policy 72% 28%
4
31. In general, in political contests, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who...
Among likely voters
Wouldn’t
matter
More likely Less likely much
Says Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election 25% 46% 29%
Criticizes the events of January 6, 2021 42% 28% 30%
Supports the events of January 6, 2021 15% 54% 31%
Supports U.S. aid to Ukraine 47% 25% 28%
Calls themselves "Woke" 11% 58% 31%
Calls themselves "MAGA" 24% 49% 26%
32. Regardless of your vote, over the last two years do you think Joe Biden and the Democrats should get credit,
blame, or neither for the way things have gone with...
Credit Blame Neither

Gas prices 11% 52% 36%
The federal deficit 17% 49% 34%
The war in Ukraine 20% 28% 51%
COVID 29% 28% 43%
Immigration 13% 51% 36%
Crime 10% 48% 42%
The economy 18% 53% 29%
The U.S. Mexico border 11% 51% 38%
33. Which party’s policies would make you feel safer from crime?
Among likely voters
Democrats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Republicans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
Both . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
34. Why don’t the Republicans make you feel as safe as Democrats? Is it because of... CHECK ALL THAT
APPLY
Among likely voters for whom Democratic Party policies make them feel more safe from crime
Republicans’ views on race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78%
Republicans’ views on criminal justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73%
Republicans’ views on police funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Republicans’ views on economic policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%
5
35. Why don’t the Democrats make you feel as safe as Republicans? Is it because of... CHECK ALL THAT
APPLY
Among likely voters for whom Republican Party policies make them feel more safe from crime
Democrats’ views on race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56%
Democrats’ views on criminal justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88%
Democrats’ views on police funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86%
Democrats’ views on economic policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67%
36. Would you favor or oppose efforts by private citizens to patrol polling places and ballot drop boxes during this
year’s elections?
Among a randomly selected half of respondents
Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%
37. Would you favor or oppose efforts by private citizens to monitor and challenge elections officials as they
process ballots and count votes on Election night and the days afterward?
Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49%
38. Which party’s economic policies would help people like you more?
Among likely voters
Democrats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Republicans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
Both . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
39. Do you think the Democratic party generally puts the interests of...
The wealthy ahead of the middle class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
The middle class ahead of the wealthy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Treats both equally . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
40. Do you think the Republican party generally puts the interests of...
The wealthy ahead of the middle class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
The middle class ahead of the wealthy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
41. Do you think the Democratic party generally puts the interests of...
Current U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
6
42. Do you think the Republican party generally puts the interests of...
Current U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64%
Recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
43. If Democrats win control of Congress, do you think the Democrats would try to...
Among likely voters
Would Would not

Cut police funding 53% 47%
Overturn Republican wins in elections 47% 53%
Increase social security benefits 51% 49%
Pass a national right to abortion 84% 16%
Lower your taxes 33% 67%
Open the U.S. Mexico border 59% 41%
44. If Republicans win control of Congress, do you think the Republicans would try to...
Among likely voters
Would Would not

Impeach Joe Biden 63% 37%
Overturn Democratic wins in elections 56% 44%
Cut social security 47% 53%
Pass a national abortion ban 56% 44%
Lower your taxes 48% 52%
Increase U.S. energy production 71% 29%
45. In this election, how long do you expect it will take to fully count the votes and know the winners? Do you
expect to know the results...
On election night . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
After a couple of days . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51%
After more than a week . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
46. Which, if any, of these concern you at your child’s school?

Among parents of school-aged children
Not a
Concern concern
The potential for gun violence 68% 32%
Bullying 72% 28%
Student learning declines after the pandemic 72% 28%
Classes discussing racial history in the U.S. 44% 56%
Classes discussing issues of sexuality and gender 57% 43%
7
47. Do you want abortion in [State] to be...

Legal in all cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
Legal in most cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Illegal in most cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Illegal in all cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Questions held for future release.
8
1. Things in America
Generally speaking, do you feel things in America today are going...
Gender Age Ideology

Total Male Female Under 30 30-44 45-64 65+ Liberal Moderate Conservative
Very well 6% 9% 4% 12% 13% 2% 2% 8% 8% 3%

Somewhat well 20% 21% 20% 24% 22% 19% 19% 34% 26% 7%
Somewhat badly 31% 26% 35% 39% 35% 28% 27% 41% 37% 18%
Very badly 42% 44% 41% 25% 30% 51% 52% 17% 29% 71%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (2,116) (990) (1,126) (330) (486) (737) (564) (565) (655) (793)
Party ID White by Education Race

Total Dem Ind Rep No Degree 4yr Degree+ White Black Hispanic
Very well 6% 11% 3% 4% 3% 7% 5% 11% 11%

Somewhat well 20% 37% 15% 8% 14% 20% 17% 38% 22%
Somewhat badly 31% 39% 32% 22% 28% 33% 30% 32% 35%
Very badly 42% 13% 50% 66% 54% 40% 48% 19% 32%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,116) (765) (536) (754) (863) (635) (1,499) (255) (221)
1
2. Condition of National Economy

How would you rate the condition of the national economy today?
Gender Age Ideology

Very good 7% 11% 4% 14% 16% 3% 3% 9% 10% 4%

Fairly good 20% 21% 19% 22% 20% 19% 21% 37% 23% 7%
Fairly bad 29% 27% 31% 35% 28% 29% 26% 35% 33% 21%
Very bad 40% 39% 41% 25% 31% 47% 48% 13% 31% 67%
Not sure 3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 5% 3% 1%
Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,112) (989) (1,123) (329) (485) (733) (564) (565) (652) (794)

Very good 7% 13% 2% 6% 5% 7% 6% 10% 13%

Fairly good 20% 37% 16% 7% 14% 26% 19% 29% 20%
Fairly bad 29% 34% 31% 22% 24% 33% 28% 34% 32%
Very bad 40% 11% 48% 64% 53% 32% 44% 21% 32%
Not sure 3% 5% 3% 1% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,112) (763) (537) (751) (860) (638) (1,498) (253) (220)
2
3. Biden Job Approval (2 Categories)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Gender Age Ideology

Approve 44% 42% 46% 53% 51% 38% 39% 86% 50% 9%
Disapprove 56% 58% 54% 47% 49% 62% 61% 14% 50% 91%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,110) (987) (1,123) (330) (484) (735) (562) (563) (654) (792)

Approve 44% 85% 32% 10% 30% 50% 38% 69% 50%
Disapprove 56% 15% 68% 90% 70% 50% 62% 31% 50%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,110) (763) (533) (753) (861) (635) (1,497) (252) (221)
3
4. Biden Job Approval (4 Categories)

Do you strongly/somewhat approve or strongly/somewhat disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Gender Age Ideology

Strongly approve 22% 23% 21% 27% 25% 17% 22% 41% 27% 6%
Somewhat approve 22% 19% 24% 26% 25% 21% 17% 45% 23% 3%
Somewhat disapprove 12% 11% 12% 23% 14% 10% 6% 9% 18% 7%
Strongly disapprove 44% 47% 42% 24% 36% 52% 55% 5% 32% 84%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,110) (987) (1,123) (330) (484) (735) (562) (563) (654) (792)

Strongly approve 22% 45% 12% 6% 15% 24% 19% 36% 24%
Somewhat approve 22% 40% 20% 4% 15% 26% 19% 33% 26%
Somewhat disapprove 12% 11% 16% 9% 10% 10% 10% 14% 17%
Strongly disapprove 44% 4% 52% 81% 60% 40% 51% 17% 32%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99%
Weighted N (2,110) (763) (533) (753) (861) (635) (1,497) (252) (221)
4
5. Attention to Midterm Election

How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2022 midterm election campaign?
Gender Age Ideology

Great deal 40% 46% 34% 23% 30% 45% 52% 43% 34% 47%
Fair amount 39% 39% 39% 46% 39% 37% 36% 38% 43% 37%
Not very much 17% 13% 21% 21% 25% 15% 11% 17% 19% 14%
None at all 4% 2% 6% 9% 6% 3% 1% 2% 4% 2%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,118) (993) (1,125) (329) (486) (738) (564) (564) (656) (795)

Great deal 40% 42% 38% 42% 39% 47% 42% 31% 35%
Fair amount 39% 38% 41% 39% 39% 37% 38% 39% 40%
Not very much 17% 17% 19% 15% 18% 14% 16% 23% 16%
None at all 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3% 6% 9%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,118) (764) (537) (755) (862) (638) (1,500) (255) (221)
5
6. Midterm Likely Voter

As of now, do you plan to vote in the 2022 elections for U.S. Congress this November?
Gender Age Ideology

Definitely will vote 68% 66% 69% 48% 58% 76% 76% 72% 59% 77%
Probably will vote 11% 13% 10% 28% 16% 8% 2% 8% 19% 7%
May or may not vote 7% 7% 7% 11% 12% 4% 3% 3% 8% 5%
Probably won’t vote 2% 2% 2% 4% 5% 1% 0% 1% 2% 2%
Definitely won’t vote 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Already voted by mail or absentee 7% 7% 7% 3% 4% 7% 12% 10% 7% 4%
Already voted early in-person 3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 3% 6% 4% 2% 4%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,114) (990) (1,123) (329) (483) (738) (563) (565) (655) (794)

Definitely will vote 68% 67% 68% 72% 67% 72% 69% 60% 62%
Probably will vote 11% 13% 9% 12% 10% 9% 10% 17% 19%
May or may not vote 7% 5% 9% 5% 7% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Probably won’t vote 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Definitely won’t vote 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1%
Already voted by mail or absentee 7% 10% 7% 4% 7% 7% 7% 8% 4%
Already voted early in-person 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 2%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,114) (765) (535) (752) (860) (637) (1,498) (255) (220)
6
7. Reasons for Not Voting

When you don’t get a chance to vote, why is that? CHECK ALL THAT APPLY
Among those that do not, may not, probably won’t or definitely won’t vote
Gender Age Ideology

Sometimes I think the whole system is bad 37% ∗ 38% ∗ 33% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗

It’s just not something that always appeals to me 29% ∗ 30% ∗ 32% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
It wouldn’t always change things 24% ∗ 25% ∗ 27% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
I don’t always have time 21% ∗ 17% ∗ 24% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
It doesn’t always affect my life 14% ∗ 13% ∗ 16% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
It’s hard to register or find voting places 9% ∗ 7% ∗ 11% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
I haven’t been old enough 6% ∗ 6% ∗ 5% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
None of the above 17% ∗ 19% ∗ 16% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
Weighted N (223) (94) (129) (62) (98) (41) (22) (31) (86) (57)

Sometimes I think the whole system is bad 37% ∗ ∗ ∗ 45% ∗ 40% ∗ ∗

It’s just not something that always appeals to me 29% ∗ ∗ ∗ 27% ∗ 29% ∗ ∗
It wouldn’t always change things 24% ∗ ∗ ∗ 26% ∗ 25% ∗ ∗
I don’t always have time 21% ∗ ∗ ∗ 21% ∗ 20% ∗ ∗
It doesn’t always affect my life 14% ∗ ∗ ∗ 8% ∗ 11% ∗ ∗
It’s hard to register or find voting places 9% ∗ ∗ ∗ 5% ∗ 5% ∗ ∗
I haven’t been old enough 6% ∗ ∗ ∗ 5% ∗ 5% ∗ ∗
None of the above 17% ∗ ∗ ∗ 20% ∗ 18% ∗ ∗
Weighted N (223) (49) (71) (70) (105) (43) (148) (32) (29)
7
8. Enthusiasm for Voting

How [do/did] you feel about voting in the election in November?
Gender Age Ideology

Very enthusiastic 51% 55% 48% 36% 42% 54% 66% 53% 42% 62%
Somewhat enthusiastic 29% 31% 28% 41% 31% 28% 21% 30% 37% 23%
Not very enthusiastic 19% 14% 24% 23% 27% 18% 13% 17% 21% 15%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,112) (986) (1,126) (326) (484) (738) (564) (565) (653) (791)

Very enthusiastic 51% 55% 45% 56% 52% 55% 53% 47% 47%
Somewhat enthusiastic 29% 33% 26% 28% 26% 30% 28% 32% 32%
Not very enthusiastic 19% 12% 29% 16% 22% 15% 19% 21% 21%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,112) (763) (535) (752) (859) (638) (1,497) (254) (219)
8
9. Importance of Midterm Voting

Compared to voting in a presidential election, do you feel that a vote in the congressional elections this year matters...
Gender Age Ideology

More than a presidential election 28% 29% 27% 23% 26% 30% 32% 33% 26% 29%
As much as a presidential election 63% 61% 64% 61% 60% 64% 64% 61% 64% 64%
Less than a presidential election 9% 9% 9% 16% 14% 6% 4% 6% 10% 7%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,117) (992) (1,125) (330) (486) (737) (563) (565) (656) (793)

More than a presidential election 28% 30% 30% 27% 26% 32% 29% 25% 28%
As much as a presidential election 63% 63% 61% 63% 64% 61% 63% 65% 58%
Less than a presidential election 9% 7% 9% 10% 10% 7% 8% 10% 14%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,117) (764) (536) (755) (861) (638) (1,499) (255) (221)
9
10. Generic House Vote

In the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in the district where you live, which party’s candidate [do you plan to/did you] vote for?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Democratic candidate 45% 41% 48% 56% 50% 43% 41% 92% 55% 6%
Republican candidate 47% 52% 42% 29% 38% 50% 53% 4% 31% 89%
Independent candidate 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1%
Someone else 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Not sure 6% 5% 7% 9% 8% 5% 3% 2% 10% 4%
Totals 101% 101% 99% 99% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,899) (887) (1,012) (175) (345) (727) (652) (519) (559) (775)

Democratic candidate 45% 95% 33% 4% 32% 50% 40% 77% 48%
Republican candidate 47% 2% 49% 91% 60% 45% 53% 14% 40%
Independent candidate 2% 0% 5% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3%
Someone else 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Not sure 6% 2% 11% 3% 5% 3% 4% 7% 9%
Totals 101% 99% 99% 99% 99% 101% 100% 100% 101%
Weighted N (1,899) (692) (481) (700) (748) (629) (1,377) (180) (187)
10
11. Democratic Voter Consider Voting Republican

[Would/Did] you ever consider voting for a Republican congressional candidate this year?
Among likely voters voting for Democrats
Gender Age Ideology

Yes 8% 11% 6% 17% 14% 5% 5% 5% 12% ∗

No 83% 79% 86% 73% 73% 88% 88% 91% 75% ∗
Not sure 8% 10% 7% 10% 13% 7% 6% 4% 13% ∗
Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% ∗
Weighted N (847) (359) (488) (98) (171) (309) (269) (477) (306) (48)

Yes 8% 7% 8% ∗ 11% 7% 9% 6% 14%

No 83% 84% 84% ∗ 80% 86% 83% 83% 77%
Not sure 8% 8% 8% ∗ 9% 7% 8% 11% 9%
Totals 99% 99% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (847) (658) (161) (25) (239) (311) (550) (137) (89)
11
12. Republican Voter Consider Voting Democratic

[Would/Did] you ever consider voting for a Democratic congressional candidate this year?
Among likely voters voting for Republicans
Gender Age Ideology

Yes 12% 14% 9% ∗ 27% 10% 4% ∗ 22% 7%

No 82% 81% 84% ∗ 67% 85% 90% ∗ 68% 87%
Not sure 6% 5% 7% ∗ 6% 5% 6% ∗ 10% 5%
Totals 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 99%
Weighted N (894) (465) (429) (51) (130) (366) (346) (19) (173) (687)

Yes 12% ∗ 13% 10% 6% 16% 10% ∗ 13%

No 82% ∗ 83% 83% 86% 80% 83% ∗ 78%
Not sure 6% ∗ 3% 7% 8% 4% 6% ∗ 8%
Totals 100% ∗ 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% ∗ 99%
Weighted N (894) (14) (235) (639) (448) (285) (732) (25) (74)
12
16A. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Economy

How important [will each of these issues be/was each of these issues] in your vote for Congress this year?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 79% 80% 79% 67% 75% 82% 83% 58% 78% 95%
Somewhat Important 18% 17% 18% 29% 21% 16% 15% 35% 20% 5%
Not too/not important 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 7% 2% 0%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,873) (875) (998) (172) (336) (720) (645) (512) (553) (761)

Very important 79% 65% 79% 94% 85% 71% 79% 81% 82%
Somewhat Important 18% 30% 18% 5% 13% 25% 18% 17% 15%
Not too/not important 3% 5% 3% 1% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,873) (685) (475) (689) (737) (616) (1,354) (177) (186)
13
16B. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Inflation

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 76% 74% 76% 63% 70% 78% 78% 50% 74% 94%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,876) (878) (998) (173) (336) (721) (646) (512) (554) (766)

Very important 76% 58% 76% 92% 82% 67% 75% 76% 81%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,876) (683) (475) (694) (740) (620) (1,360) (177) (184)
14
16C. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Abortion

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 56% 46% 65% 56% 63% 54% 56% 84% 56% 38%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (871) (1,002) (174) (333) (721) (644) (513) (548) (765)

Very important 56% 79% 47% 40% 51% 60% 55% 69% 60%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (678) (476) (693) (741) (614) (1,355) (179) (184)
15
16D. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Gun policy

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 62% 57% 66% 57% 65% 59% 65% 72% 64% 54%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (873) (1,000) (174) (333) (717) (648) (514) (548) (765)

Very important 62% 74% 58% 53% 59% 60% 60% 74% 66%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (682) (473) (692) (740) (617) (1,357) (176) (185)
16
16E. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Coronavirus

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 27% 23% 31% 33% 34% 26% 24% 37% 36% 14%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (1,883) (875) (1,007) (173) (340) (722) (648) (513) (556) (768)

Very important 27% 44% 20% 15% 21% 22% 22% 60% 33%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,883) (686) (477) (695) (744) (621) (1,365) (179) (185)
17
16F. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Issues of race

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 34% 31% 37% 44% 44% 31% 30% 59% 38% 14%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,878) (876) (1,002) (173) (340) (723) (643) (514) (554) (766)

Very important 34% 60% 26% 14% 24% 32% 27% 80% 39%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,878) (683) (477) (693) (739) (622) (1,361) (178) (184)
18
16G. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Voting and election issues
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 63% 61% 65% 48% 55% 61% 73% 69% 60% 61%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (874) (998) (171) (334) (721) (645) (507) (553) (765)

Very important 63% 69% 57% 61% 62% 62% 62% 76% 63%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (678) (477) (693) (738) (618) (1,356) (177) (184)
19
16H. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Climate change

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 41% 35% 46% 57% 49% 37% 36% 76% 47% 13%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,879) (875) (1,004) (173) (339) (719) (648) (513) (552) (767)

Very important 41% 71% 33% 16% 30% 45% 37% 56% 48%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,879) (685) (475) (695) (741) (619) (1,360) (179) (186)
20
16I. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Immigration

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 61% 63% 59% 44% 51% 62% 69% 32% 56% 85%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,881) (877) (1,004) (175) (339) (720) (647) (513) (555) (766)

Very important 61% 36% 64% 84% 68% 56% 63% 52% 67%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,881) (683) (478) (695) (739) (622) (1,361) (178) (186)
21
16J. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — January 6th events and investigation
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 41% 37% 45% 35% 44% 41% 41% 73% 47% 15%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,881) (875) (1,006) (172) (338) (720) (650) (516) (552) (768)

Very important 41% 73% 32% 15% 31% 44% 37% 67% 44%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (1,881) (685) (475) (695) (744) (619) (1,363) (178) (184)
22
16K. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — Crime

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 65% 65% 66% 53% 61% 65% 71% 35% 67% 84%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,881) (873) (1,008) (175) (338) (718) (651) (513) (557) (767)

Very important 65% 47% 63% 85% 71% 54% 63% 76% 67%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,881) (687) (476) (693) (746) (619) (1,365) (179) (184)
23
16L. Issue Importance for Congressional Vote — The 2020 election

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Very important 44% 43% 46% 33% 46% 41% 50% 47% 40% 46%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,874) (878) (996) (174) (343) (715) (643) (510) (555) (765)

Very important 44% 49% 37% 45% 46% 40% 43% 59% 42%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,874) (684) (473) (693) (736) (622) (1,358) (176) (186)
24
20. Economy or Democracy

When you think about the next few years, if you had to choose, which is the bigger concern for you right now? Are you most concerned about whether the
U.S. will....
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Have a strong economy or not 44% 46% 43% 49% 49% 45% 40% 15% 46% 62%
Have a functioning democracy or not 56% 54% 57% 51% 51% 55% 60% 85% 54% 38%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,888) (881) (1,007) (174) (342) (723) (649) (518) (557) (770)

Have a strong economy or not 44% 25% 42% 65% 49% 38% 44% 41% 47%
Have a functioning democracy or not 56% 75% 58% 35% 51% 62% 56% 59% 53%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,888) (691) (480) (694) (744) (629) (1,373) (180) (180)
25
21. Clear Plan with Democrats in Control

From what you have seen or heard, have the Democrats offered a clear plan for what they would do if they keep control of Congress, or have they not done
that yet?
Gender Age Ideology

Clear plan 41% 45% 38% 47% 45% 36% 41% 60% 47% 26%
Not yet 59% 55% 62% 53% 55% 64% 59% 40% 53% 74%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,101) (986) (1,115) (328) (481) (733) (559) (562) (652) (786)

Clear plan 41% 66% 29% 27% 33% 48% 40% 55% 42%
Not yet 59% 34% 71% 73% 67% 52% 60% 45% 58%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,101) (761) (532) (747) (855) (632) (1,487) (254) (219)
26
22. Clear Plan with Republicans in Control

From what you have seen or heard, have the Republicans offered a clear plan for what they would do if they win control of Congress, or have they not done
that yet?
Gender Age Ideology

Clear plan 45% 50% 41% 46% 48% 43% 46% 29% 39% 66%
Not yet 55% 50% 59% 54% 52% 57% 54% 71% 61% 34%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,105) (989) (1,117) (328) (481) (734) (562) (562) (653) (790)

Clear plan 45% 29% 42% 66% 48% 47% 48% 37% 43%
Not yet 55% 71% 58% 34% 52% 53% 52% 63% 57%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,105) (761) (532) (751) (859) (635) (1,494) (252) (218)
27
23. Gas Prices with Democrats in Control

If Democrats control Congress next year, do you think the price of gas would...
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Go up 53% 58% 48% 42% 42% 55% 59% 13% 42% 88%
Go down 15% 14% 17% 18% 21% 13% 14% 25% 21% 5%
Not be impacted either way 32% 28% 35% 40% 37% 32% 26% 62% 37% 7%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,891) (881) (1,010) (175) (340) (724) (652) (519) (556) (771)

Go up 53% 16% 57% 86% 67% 49% 59% 26% 47%

Go down 15% 31% 8% 5% 11% 12% 11% 30% 23%
Not be impacted either way 32% 53% 35% 8% 22% 39% 30% 44% 30%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,891) (690) (480) (695) (747) (626) (1,373) (179) (185)
28
24. Gas Prices with Republicans in Control

If Republicans control Congress next year, do you think the price of gas would...
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Go up 21% 19% 23% 25% 29% 19% 19% 35% 26% 8%

Go down 45% 48% 43% 43% 35% 46% 50% 9% 38% 76%
Not be impacted either way 33% 33% 34% 32% 36% 35% 30% 56% 36% 15%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (1,891) (881) (1,010) (175) (341) (723) (651) (519) (554) (773)

Go up 21% 42% 13% 7% 17% 17% 17% 45% 24%

Go down 45% 10% 48% 78% 58% 42% 51% 15% 44%
Not be impacted either way 33% 48% 39% 14% 25% 41% 32% 40% 32%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,891) (691) (477) (698) (747) (627) (1,374) (178) (183)
29
25. Congressional Vote - Biden

[Will your vote for Congress this year be.../Was your vote for Congress this year...]
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

To support Joe Biden 25% 23% 26% 30% 30% 23% 22% 48% 29% 5%
To oppose Joe Biden 37% 41% 34% 24% 33% 40% 41% 3% 26% 69%
Not about Joe Biden 38% 36% 39% 46% 37% 37% 37% 49% 44% 26%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,892) (885) (1,007) (174) (343) (726) (649) (517) (559) (772)

To support Joe Biden 25% 57% 9% 4% 15% 25% 20% 51% 31%
To oppose Joe Biden 37% 4% 39% 70% 48% 34% 42% 14% 33%
Not about Joe Biden 38% 39% 52% 26% 36% 40% 38% 35% 36%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,892) (691) (478) (699) (747) (627) (1,374) (178) (184)
30
26. Congressional Vote - Trump

[Will your vote for Congress this year be.../Was your vote for Congress this year...]
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

To support Donald Trump 17% 20% 14% 17% 26% 15% 14% 4% 11% 30%
To oppose Donald Trump 27% 23% 31% 33% 32% 26% 26% 53% 35% 5%
Not about Donald Trump 56% 57% 55% 50% 42% 59% 60% 43% 53% 65%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,892) (884) (1,008) (174) (342) (725) (650) (517) (559) (771)

To support Donald Trump 17% 4% 9% 35% 21% 13% 17% 11% 23%
To oppose Donald Trump 27% 54% 21% 5% 19% 31% 25% 39% 35%
Not about Donald Trump 56% 42% 70% 60% 60% 56% 58% 50% 42%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,892) (690) (481) (696) (748) (626) (1,374) (178) (184)
31
27. Out of Control

Do you feel like things in the U.S. today are generally...
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Under control 21% 24% 19% 35% 29% 17% 18% 38% 28% 6%
Out of control 79% 76% 81% 65% 71% 83% 82% 62% 72% 94%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,892) (880) (1,012) (174) (342) (725) (651) (516) (559) (773)

Under control 21% 44% 12% 6% 14% 25% 19% 42% 23%
Out of control 79% 56% 88% 94% 86% 75% 81% 58% 77%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,892) (689) (481) (697) (748) (626) (1,374) (179) (183)
32
28A. Must Agree with Candidate — Abortion

Which of these issues is something a political candidate MUST agree with you on to get your vote, and which is something they could disagree on but still
get your vote?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Must agree to get vote 65% 60% 70% 66% 72% 64% 64% 89% 60% 54%
Could disagree and still get vote 35% 40% 30% 34% 28% 36% 36% 11% 40% 46%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,884) (877) (1,007) (174) (342) (723) (646) (516) (558) (766)

Must agree to get vote 65% 85% 58% 52% 62% 66% 64% 70% 70%
Could disagree and still get vote 35% 15% 42% 48% 38% 34% 36% 30% 30%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,884) (689) (477) (693) (742) (625) (1,366) (178) (184)
33
28B. Must Agree with Candidate — Economy

get your vote?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,883) (878) (1,005) (174) (341) (722) (646) (515) (556) (769)

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,883) (688) (478) (692) (739) (625) (1,365) (180) (184)
34
28C. Must Agree with Candidate — Immigration

get your vote?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,883) (879) (1,004) (174) (340) (723) (646) (515) (555) (770)

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,883) (687) (478) (694) (741) (626) (1,367) (180) (183)
35
28D. Must Agree with Candidate — What happened on January 6th,2021

get your vote?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,888) (881) (1,007) (174) (342) (726) (647) (517) (558) (769)

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,888) (690) (479) (695) (742) (628) (1,370) (180) (183)
36
28E. Must Agree with Candidate — Gun policy

get your vote?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,885) (877) (1,007) (174) (340) (724) (646) (514) (556) (770)

Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,885) (689) (478) (693) (741) (626) (1,367) (180) (184)
37
31A. Candidate Attributes — Says Joe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election
In general, in political contests, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who...
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

More likely 25% 28% 22% 20% 31% 23% 24% 7% 19% 41%
Less likely 46% 40% 52% 57% 50% 45% 44% 89% 54% 13%
Wouldn’t matter much 29% 32% 26% 22% 19% 32% 32% 4% 27% 46%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,879) (873) (1,006) (167) (342) (719) (650) (517) (550) (770)

More likely 25% 12% 20% 41% 32% 19% 26% 18% 27%
Less likely 46% 82% 42% 14% 35% 54% 43% 64% 53%
Wouldn’t matter much 29% 6% 38% 45% 33% 27% 30% 18% 20%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,879) (690) (477) (689) (747) (620) (1,367) (175) (181)
38
31B. Candidate Attributes — Criticizes the events of January 6, 2021

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

More likely 42% 38% 45% 47% 49% 39% 40% 76% 45% 18%
Less likely 28% 30% 27% 26% 28% 28% 29% 13% 26% 40%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,873) (870) (1,004) (168) (339) (719) (648) (518) (547) (766)

More likely 42% 69% 38% 18% 32% 50% 40% 54% 41%
Less likely 28% 20% 24% 40% 33% 24% 29% 26% 35%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,873) (690) (477) (684) (742) (619) (1,362) (176) (179)
39
31C. Candidate Attributes — Supports the events of January 6, 2021

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

More likely 15% 17% 12% 17% 24% 12% 12% 11% 15% 17%
Less likely 54% 48% 59% 54% 52% 54% 54% 83% 56% 33%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,879) (872) (1,007) (168) (341) (720) (650) (519) (549) (769)

More likely 15% 16% 10% 17% 14% 14% 14% 17% 20%
Less likely 54% 77% 50% 33% 46% 60% 52% 66% 53%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (1,879) (692) (477) (687) (744) (619) (1,364) (177) (182)
40
31D. Candidate Attributes — Supports U.S. aid to Ukraine

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

More likely 47% 45% 48% 49% 45% 43% 51% 73% 49% 27%
Less likely 25% 27% 24% 23% 29% 27% 22% 7% 25% 38%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,876) (871) (1,005) (167) (343) (718) (647) (517) (550) (766)

More likely 47% 72% 39% 26% 41% 54% 47% 46% 42%
Less likely 25% 12% 30% 36% 31% 20% 26% 20% 27%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,876) (691) (477) (685) (744) (618) (1,362) (176) (182)
41
31E. Candidate Attributes — Calls themselves "Woke"

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

More likely 11% 11% 11% 19% 22% 8% 8% 25% 10% 4%

Less likely 58% 61% 55% 42% 51% 59% 64% 23% 55% 84%
Totals 100% 99% 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,880) (874) (1,006) (168) (343) (723) (646) (515) (550) (773)

More likely 11% 21% 6% 6% 8% 12% 10% 16% 16%

Less likely 58% 31% 66% 79% 67% 56% 62% 32% 57%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (1,880) (687) (479) (691) (742) (621) (1,363) (178) (183)
42
31F. Candidate Attributes — Calls themselves "MAGA"

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

More likely 24% 29% 20% 16% 22% 22% 30% 5% 13% 46%
Less likely 49% 44% 54% 58% 58% 46% 46% 89% 57% 17%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,877) (870) (1,007) (168) (342) (719) (649) (518) (549) (768)

More likely 24% 7% 21% 44% 29% 21% 26% 12% 25%
Less likely 49% 80% 48% 19% 40% 55% 47% 66% 50%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,877) (692) (478) (684) (742) (619) (1,361) (177) (183)
43
32A. Credit or Blame — Gas prices

Regardless of your vote, over the last two years do you think Joe Biden and the Democrats should get credit, blame, or neither for the way things have gone
with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 11% 13% 10% 20% 18% 5% 8% 15% 15% 6%

Blame 52% 57% 48% 39% 46% 58% 58% 12% 47% 86%
Neither 36% 30% 42% 41% 36% 37% 34% 73% 37% 8%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,090) (971) (1,119) (314) (480) (732) (563) (565) (640) (787)

Credit 11% 21% 3% 7% 8% 11% 9% 18% 15%

Blame 52% 17% 59% 84% 66% 47% 58% 26% 47%
Neither 36% 62% 38% 8% 26% 42% 33% 55% 37%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%
Weighted N (2,090) (762) (534) (735) (859) (623) (1,482) (251) (217)
44
32B. Credit or Blame — The federal deficit

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 17% 18% 16% 20% 19% 14% 17% 33% 17% 6%
Blame 49% 54% 45% 38% 41% 54% 56% 13% 46% 79%
Neither 34% 28% 39% 42% 40% 32% 27% 54% 36% 15%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,085) (971) (1,114) (314) (478) (733) (561) (565) (638) (785)

Credit 17% 32% 12% 6% 11% 21% 15% 22% 20%

Blame 49% 17% 54% 80% 60% 46% 55% 26% 45%
Neither 34% 51% 34% 14% 29% 32% 30% 52% 35%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,085) (759) (534) (734) (856) (622) (1,478) (251) (217)
45
32C. Credit or Blame — The war in Ukraine

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 20% 24% 17% 28% 23% 16% 20% 34% 27% 7%
Blame 28% 32% 25% 19% 28% 30% 32% 8% 19% 51%
Neither 51% 43% 58% 53% 49% 54% 48% 58% 54% 42%
Totals 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,086) (970) (1,116) (312) (480) (732) (562) (565) (637) (786)

Credit 20% 37% 16% 8% 14% 27% 20% 23% 24%

Blame 28% 10% 29% 47% 35% 23% 30% 16% 29%
Neither 51% 53% 55% 44% 50% 50% 50% 61% 47%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,086) (760) (533) (734) (859) (623) (1,483) (250) (214)
46
32D. Credit or Blame — COVID

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 29% 28% 29% 31% 33% 27% 27% 56% 37% 5%
Blame 28% 31% 26% 30% 28% 28% 28% 7% 20% 50%
Neither 43% 40% 45% 38% 39% 45% 45% 37% 43% 44%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (2,088) (973) (1,115) (315) (479) (730) (563) (565) (640) (785)

Credit 29% 56% 22% 8% 20% 34% 26% 44% 29%

Blame 28% 9% 29% 48% 35% 27% 31% 12% 27%
Neither 43% 35% 49% 44% 45% 39% 43% 43% 44%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,088) (761) (534) (734) (858) (622) (1,480) (251) (217)
47
32E. Credit or Blame — Immigration

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 13% 14% 12% 24% 20% 7% 10% 21% 15% 7%

Blame 51% 56% 47% 34% 43% 57% 60% 17% 44% 83%
Neither 36% 30% 40% 42% 37% 36% 30% 62% 41% 10%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,090) (973) (1,117) (315) (479) (732) (564) (565) (641) (786)

Credit 13% 23% 7% 8% 8% 14% 10% 22% 19%

Blame 51% 19% 57% 82% 64% 48% 57% 29% 39%
Neither 36% 58% 35% 10% 28% 38% 32% 49% 41%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 99%
Weighted N (2,090) (762) (535) (734) (859) (623) (1,482) (251) (217)
48
32F. Credit or Blame — Crime

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 10% 11% 8% 18% 18% 4% 6% 14% 12% 6%

Blame 48% 55% 42% 36% 40% 53% 54% 12% 41% 80%
Neither 42% 33% 50% 46% 42% 43% 39% 74% 47% 14%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,092) (972) (1,120) (316) (480) (734) (563) (565) (640) (789)

Credit 10% 17% 5% 7% 5% 10% 7% 19% 14%

Blame 48% 16% 54% 77% 59% 46% 53% 22% 43%
Neither 42% 67% 41% 16% 36% 44% 40% 59% 43%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,092) (762) (535) (736) (859) (622) (1,481) (254) (217)
49
32G. Credit or Blame — The economy

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 18% 19% 16% 24% 24% 12% 17% 31% 20% 7%
Blame 53% 57% 49% 40% 43% 60% 59% 16% 46% 86%
Neither 29% 23% 35% 36% 33% 28% 24% 53% 33% 7%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,079) (964) (1,115) (315) (477) (728) (559) (564) (632) (784)

Credit 18% 34% 11% 7% 13% 20% 16% 28% 18%

Blame 53% 19% 57% 85% 64% 49% 58% 26% 46%
Neither 29% 47% 32% 8% 22% 31% 26% 46% 36%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,079) (759) (531) (730) (852) (622) (1,474) (251) (218)
50
32H. Credit or Blame — The U.S. Mexico border

with...
Gender Age Ideology

Credit 11% 12% 10% 20% 21% 5% 7% 17% 13% 6%

Blame 51% 56% 47% 35% 39% 57% 62% 15% 44% 84%
Neither 38% 32% 43% 44% 40% 38% 31% 68% 43% 10%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,085) (969) (1,116) (314) (479) (730) (563) (565) (640) (783)

Credit 11% 20% 6% 6% 7% 12% 9% 21% 15%

Blame 51% 18% 57% 82% 65% 49% 58% 22% 40%
Neither 38% 61% 37% 12% 28% 39% 33% 57% 44%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (2,085) (761) (535) (731) (857) (621) (1,479) (251) (217)
51
33. Feel More Safe From Crime

Which party’s policies would make you feel safer from crime?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Democrats 30% 26% 34% 40% 42% 25% 27% 67% 34% 4%
Republicans 46% 52% 42% 33% 35% 50% 52% 4% 33% 85%
Both 5% 6% 4% 4% 6% 6% 4% 3% 10% 2%
Neither 19% 16% 20% 23% 17% 19% 17% 26% 23% 9%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,898) (885) (1,012) (175) (345) (725) (652) (517) (559) (775)

Democrats 30% 69% 17% 2% 19% 34% 26% 56% 34%

Republicans 46% 3% 51% 87% 57% 46% 52% 12% 38%
Both 5% 6% 6% 2% 5% 4% 4% 8% 9%
Neither 19% 22% 26% 8% 18% 16% 17% 24% 19%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,898) (691) (481) (700) (748) (627) (1,375) (180) (187)
52
34. Why Feel Safer - Democrats

Why don’t the Republicans make you feel as safe as Democrats? Is it because of... CHECK ALL THAT APPLY
Among likely voters for whom Democratic Party policies make them feel more safe from crime
Gender Age Ideology

Republicans’ views on race 78% 72% 83% 54% 63% 90% 89% 87% 69% ∗
Republicans’ views on criminal justice 73% 62% 80% 55% 62% 80% 81% 81% 61% ∗
Republicans’ views on police funding 51% 41% 58% 45% 54% 50% 52% 56% 42% ∗
Republicans’ views on economic policy 55% 49% 60% 43% 44% 69% 55% 58% 52% ∗
Weighted N (578) (235) (343) (70) (146) (185) (176) (346) (188) (33)

Republicans’ views on race 78% 79% 87% ∗ 72% 83% 78% 75% 76%
Republicans’ views on criminal justice 73% 73% 73% ∗ 74% 76% 75% 68% 64%
Republicans’ views on police funding 51% 50% 59% ∗ 54% 51% 52% 49% 38%
Republicans’ views on economic policy 55% 57% 51% ∗ 54% 57% 55% 52% 48%
Weighted N (578) (475) (82) (17) (145) (215) (360) (101) (64)
53
35. Why Feel Safer - Republicans

Why don’t the Democrats make you feel as safe as Republicans? Is it because of... CHECK ALL THAT APPLY
Among likely voters for whom Republican Party policies make them feel more safe from crime
Gender Age Ideology

Democrats’ views on race 56% 59% 54% ∗ 51% 59% 59% ∗ 43% 60%
Democrats’ views on criminal justice 88% 88% 88% ∗ 72% 91% 96% ∗ 83% 90%
Democrats’ views on police funding 86% 87% 85% ∗ 68% 91% 94% ∗ 79% 90%
Democrats’ views on economic policy 67% 71% 63% ∗ 59% 68% 74% ∗ 60% 71%
Weighted N (879) (457) (421) (58) (121) (362) (338) (19) (187) (660)

Democrats’ views on race 56% ∗ 55% 58% 62% 48% 56% ∗ 63%
Democrats’ views on criminal justice 88% ∗ 95% 86% 91% 88% 90% ∗ 80%
Democrats’ views on police funding 86% ∗ 93% 85% 89% 88% 89% ∗ 76%
Democrats’ views on economic policy 67% ∗ 71% 67% 72% 60% 67% ∗ 74%
Weighted N (879) (23) (243) (609) (429) (290) (719) (22) (71)
54
36. Patrolling Drop Boxes

Would you favor or oppose efforts by private citizens to patrol polling places and ballot drop boxes during this year’s elections?
Among a randomly selected half of respondents
Gender Age Ideology

Favor 46% 53% 41% 44% 46% 44% 52% 20% 42% 69%
Oppose 54% 47% 59% 56% 54% 56% 48% 80% 58% 31%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,043) (495) (548) (155) (247) (375) (266) (287) (332) (382)

Favor 46% 29% 41% 67% 53% 44% 49% 35% 49%
Oppose 54% 71% 59% 33% 47% 56% 51% 65% 51%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,043) (372) (268) (375) (412) (325) (737) (126) (118)
55
37. Challenge Election Officials

Would you favor or oppose efforts by private citizens to monitor and challenge elections officials as they process ballots and count votes on Election night
and the days afterward?
Gender Age Ideology

Favor 51% 56% 46% 47% 51% 49% 54% 18% 48% 75%
Oppose 49% 44% 54% 53% 49% 51% 46% 82% 52% 25%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,093) (982) (1,111) (326) (476) (734) (558) (558) (648) (790)

Favor 51% 31% 47% 73% 55% 49% 53% 40% 50%
Oppose 49% 69% 53% 27% 45% 51% 47% 60% 50%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,093) (755) (531) (748) (856) (632) (1,488) (250) (218)
56
38. Economic Policies Help You More

Which party’s economic policies would help people like you more?
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Democrats 40% 36% 43% 50% 48% 37% 36% 82% 48% 7%
Republicans 46% 51% 42% 31% 36% 50% 53% 4% 33% 86%
Both 4% 4% 4% 8% 5% 3% 3% 2% 8% 2%
Neither 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 8% 12% 11% 5%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,895) (886) (1,008) (174) (344) (726) (651) (519) (557) (773)

Democrats 40% 86% 25% 5% 29% 43% 36% 72% 39%

Republicans 46% 3% 52% 87% 59% 47% 53% 12% 36%
Both 4% 3% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 10%
Neither 10% 8% 18% 4% 9% 7% 8% 11% 15%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,895) (692) (480) (698) (745) (628) (1,373) (179) (187)
57
39. Wealthy or Middle Class First - Democrats

Do you think the Democratic party generally puts the interests of...
Gender Age Ideology

The wealthy ahead of the middle class 34% 36% 32% 26% 30% 39% 37% 15% 26% 56%
The middle class ahead of the wealthy 32% 29% 35% 30% 31% 32% 33% 63% 35% 9%
Treats both equally 13% 13% 14% 27% 17% 9% 8% 14% 21% 6%
Neither 21% 22% 19% 17% 22% 20% 22% 8% 17% 29%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100%
Weighted N (2,111) (990) (1,121) (327) (484) (738) (563) (564) (653) (791)

The wealthy ahead of the middle class 34% 12% 42% 52% 43% 32% 38% 15% 32%
The middle class ahead of the wealthy 32% 60% 23% 12% 25% 38% 30% 38% 34%
Treats both equally 13% 19% 13% 7% 8% 11% 10% 28% 15%
Neither 21% 9% 21% 29% 24% 19% 22% 19% 19%
Totals 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,111) (764) (533) (752) (860) (636) (1,495) (254) (221)
58
40. Wealthy or Middle Class First - Republicans

Do you think the Republican party generally puts the interests of...
Gender Age Ideology

The wealthy ahead of the middle class 48% 44% 51% 47% 51% 49% 45% 89% 54% 15%
The middle class ahead of the wealthy 15% 18% 13% 12% 17% 16% 14% 5% 14% 26%
Neither 10% 9% 11% 10% 13% 10% 9% 3% 10% 12%
Totals 99% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,108) (988) (1,120) (327) (481) (738) (562) (564) (654) (788)

The wealthy ahead of the middle class 48% 80% 48% 16% 37% 54% 44% 64% 52%
The middle class ahead of the wealthy 15% 7% 13% 27% 20% 11% 17% 11% 15%
Neither 10% 6% 10% 11% 12% 7% 10% 11% 12%
Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,108) (765) (534) (747) (857) (637) (1,494) (253) (221)
59
41. Citizens or Immigrants Ahead - Democrats

Do you think the Democratic party generally puts the interests of...
Gender Age Ideology

Current U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants 15% 15% 15% 28% 20% 12% 9% 26% 17% 7%
Recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens 45% 50% 41% 27% 35% 52% 55% 7% 39% 80%
Neither 12% 8% 15% 12% 15% 11% 10% 11% 12% 7%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,105) (986) (1,119) (326) (481) (737) (561) (564) (650) (791)

Current U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants 15% 26% 14% 7% 11% 17% 13% 24% 21%
Recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens 45% 10% 52% 77% 58% 43% 51% 18% 33%
Neither 12% 12% 11% 9% 11% 10% 11% 16% 16%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99%
Weighted N (2,105) (759) (534) (750) (855) (636) (1,492) (252) (221)
60
42. Citizens or Immigrants Ahead - Republicans

Do you think the Republican party generally puts the interests of...
Gender Age Ideology

Current U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants 64% 64% 63% 55% 54% 68% 70% 70% 57% 69%
Recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens 7% 8% 6% 12% 12% 4% 3% 6% 9% 6%
Neither 17% 13% 21% 14% 17% 19% 16% 20% 20% 8%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,107) (986) (1,121) (327) (482) (737) (561) (564) (651) (790)

Current U.S. citizens ahead of recent immigrants 64% 60% 66% 67% 66% 72% 69% 43% 53%
Recent immigrants ahead of U.S. citizens 7% 9% 5% 6% 8% 4% 6% 11% 9%
Neither 17% 23% 16% 9% 15% 11% 14% 30% 24%
Totals 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,107) (762) (532) (752) (856) (636) (1,492) (254) (221)
61
43A. Congressional Agenda if Democrats Win — Cut police funding

If Democrats win control of Congress, do you think the Democrats would try to...
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 53% 58% 49% 52% 50% 52% 55% 13% 44% 87%
Would not 47% 42% 51% 48% 50% 48% 45% 87% 56% 13%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,861) (860) (1,001) (167) (331) (720) (643) (513) (548) (757)

Would 53% 20% 56% 84% 64% 48% 57% 30% 51%
Would not 47% 80% 44% 16% 36% 52% 43% 70% 49%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,861) (681) (477) (678) (735) (617) (1,352) (179) (184)
62
43B. Congressional Agenda if Democrats Win — Overturn Republican wins in elections

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 47% 50% 45% 42% 50% 46% 47% 14% 40% 74%
Would not 53% 50% 55% 58% 50% 54% 53% 86% 60% 26%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,859) (859) (1,000) (166) (330) (719) (643) (516) (545) (753)

Would 47% 22% 46% 72% 55% 39% 48% 33% 52%
Would not 53% 78% 54% 28% 45% 61% 52% 67% 48%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,859) (683) (473) (678) (732) (618) (1,350) (179) (182)
63
43C. Congressional Agenda if Democrats Win — Increase social security benefits

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 51% 47% 54% 59% 61% 50% 45% 76% 61% 27%
Would not 49% 53% 46% 41% 39% 50% 55% 24% 39% 73%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,867) (865) (1,002) (169) (332) (722) (644) (517) (549) (756)

Would 51% 79% 44% 28% 41% 52% 46% 79% 58%
Would not 49% 21% 56% 72% 59% 48% 54% 21% 42%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,867) (687) (476) (680) (737) (621) (1,358) (177) (184)
64
43D. Congressional Agenda if Democrats Win — Pass a national right to abortion

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 84% 82% 85% 74% 79% 83% 89% 86% 80% 86%
Would not 16% 18% 15% 26% 21% 17% 11% 14% 20% 14%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,860) (862) (997) (161) (331) (720) (647) (516) (543) (756)

Would 84% 85% 82% 84% 84% 85% 85% 79% 84%
Would not 16% 15% 18% 16% 16% 15% 15% 21% 16%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,860) (684) (474) (676) (736) (619) (1,354) (179) (183)
65
43E. Congressional Agenda if Democrats Win — Lower your taxes

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 33% 29% 36% 45% 42% 29% 29% 57% 44% 9%
Would not 67% 71% 64% 55% 58% 71% 71% 43% 56% 91%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,866) (865) (1,001) (168) (333) (720) (645) (515) (544) (762)

Would 33% 64% 23% 9% 22% 31% 26% 69% 42%

Would not 67% 36% 77% 91% 78% 69% 74% 31% 58%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,866) (685) (478) (678) (738) (617) (1,356) (179) (183)
66
43F. Congressional Agenda if Democrats Win — Open the U.S. Mexico border
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 59% 61% 56% 49% 57% 59% 62% 20% 50% 91%
Would not 41% 39% 44% 51% 43% 41% 38% 80% 50% 9%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,867) (866) (1,001) (165) (332) (723) (647) (517) (548) (758)

Would 59% 27% 61% 89% 67% 55% 62% 39% 55%
Would not 41% 73% 39% 11% 33% 45% 38% 61% 45%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,867) (686) (479) (677) (739) (619) (1,357) (179) (183)
67
44A. Congressional Agenda if Republicans Win — Impeach Joe Biden

If Republicans win control of Congress, do you think the Republicans would try to...
Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 63% 63% 62% 61% 62% 61% 65% 73% 61% 57%
Would not 37% 37% 38% 39% 38% 39% 35% 27% 39% 43%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,865) (868) (997) (163) (339) (720) (643) (511) (548) (763)

Would 63% 71% 59% 58% 66% 63% 64% 57% 62%
Would not 37% 29% 41% 42% 34% 37% 36% 43% 38%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,865) (681) (475) (684) (738) (610) (1,349) (177) (184)
68
44B. Congressional Agenda if Republicans Win — Overturn Democratic wins in elections

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 56% 50% 61% 67% 65% 52% 52% 88% 61% 30%
Would not 44% 50% 39% 33% 35% 48% 48% 12% 39% 70%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,869) (867) (1,001) (164) (337) (720) (648) (512) (551) (762)

Would 56% 82% 49% 35% 48% 57% 52% 71% 58%
Would not 44% 18% 51% 65% 52% 43% 48% 29% 42%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,869) (684) (475) (684) (738) (616) (1,354) (178) (183)
69
44C. Congressional Agenda if Republicans Win — Cut social security

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 47% 43% 50% 60% 57% 45% 41% 89% 53% 14%
Would not 53% 57% 50% 40% 43% 55% 59% 11% 47% 86%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,871) (868) (1,003) (165) (339) (722) (645) (517) (548) (763)

Would 47% 83% 41% 15% 36% 51% 43% 70% 47%
Would not 53% 17% 59% 85% 64% 49% 57% 30% 53%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,871) (688) (474) (684) (740) (614) (1,354) (178) (184)
70
44D. Congressional Agenda if Republicans Win — Pass a national abortion ban

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 56% 52% 60% 63% 68% 51% 54% 88% 58% 33%
Would not 44% 48% 40% 37% 32% 49% 46% 12% 42% 67%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,869) (868) (1,001) (164) (336) (722) (648) (514) (548) (764)

Would 56% 80% 49% 37% 52% 58% 55% 69% 55%
Would not 44% 20% 51% 63% 48% 42% 45% 31% 45%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,869) (684) (477) (683) (737) (615) (1,353) (178) (183)
71
44E. Congressional Agenda if Republicans Win — Lower your taxes

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 48% 54% 43% 47% 49% 47% 49% 13% 40% 78%
Would not 52% 46% 57% 53% 51% 53% 51% 87% 60% 22%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (869) (1,003) (167) (338) (721) (645) (514) (549) (764)

Would 48% 16% 49% 81% 58% 46% 53% 24% 45%
Would not 52% 84% 51% 19% 42% 54% 47% 76% 55%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (686) (477) (684) (741) (614) (1,354) (178) (183)
72
44F. Congressional Agenda if Republicans Win — Increase U.S. energy production

Among likely voters
Gender Age Ideology

Would 71% 75% 67% 61% 62% 72% 76% 44% 66% 92%
Would not 29% 25% 33% 39% 38% 28% 24% 56% 34% 8%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (871) (1,001) (164) (337) (721) (650) (513) (546) (769)

Would 71% 48% 73% 92% 77% 72% 74% 54% 64%
Would not 29% 52% 27% 8% 23% 28% 26% 46% 36%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (1,872) (683) (475) (689) (744) (614) (1,357) (179) (183)
73
45. Know Election Results

In this election, how long do you expect it will take to fully count the votes and know the winners? Do you expect to know the results...
Gender Age Ideology

On election night 25% 26% 24% 22% 32% 25% 22% 21% 23% 30%
After a couple of days 51% 51% 51% 58% 52% 50% 48% 59% 54% 45%
After more than a week 23% 23% 24% 20% 16% 25% 30% 20% 23% 25%
Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,098) (979) (1,119) (322) (479) (734) (563) (562) (647) (790)

On election night 25% 21% 23% 31% 25% 21% 23% 32% 33%
After a couple of days 51% 59% 52% 44% 50% 55% 52% 51% 46%
After more than a week 23% 20% 24% 25% 25% 24% 25% 17% 21%
Totals 99% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,098) (759) (536) (745) (855) (635) (1,489) (252) (218)
74
46A. Parental Concerns — The potential for gun violence

Which, if any, of these concern you at your child’s school?
Gender Age Ideology

Concern 68% 62% 72% ∗ 65% 66% ∗ 77% 70% 58%

Not a concern 32% 38% 28% ∗ 35% 34% ∗ 23% 30% 42%
Totals 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (405) (184) (221) (49) (225) (117) (15) (106) (151) (127)

Concern 68% 74% ∗ 68% 64% 65% 64% ∗ 68%

Not a concern 32% 26% ∗ 32% 36% 35% 36% ∗ 32%
Totals 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100%
Weighted N (405) (176) (78) (137) (112) (148) (260) (59) (55)
75
46B. Parental Concerns — Bullying

Gender Age Ideology

Concern 72% 68% 75% ∗ 71% 69% ∗ 75% 75% 66%

Not a concern 28% 32% 25% ∗ 29% 31% ∗ 25% 25% 34%
Totals 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (406) (186) (220) (49) (226) (117) (15) (106) (152) (128)

Concern 72% 77% ∗ 69% 72% 64% 68% ∗ 71%

Not a concern 28% 23% ∗ 31% 28% 36% 32% ∗ 29%
Totals 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100%
Weighted N (406) (176) (79) (137) (111) (148) (259) (60) (56)
76
46C. Parental Concerns — Student learning declines after the pandemic

Gender Age Ideology

Concern 72% 72% 73% ∗ 71% 69% ∗ 72% 76% 71%

Not a concern 28% 28% 27% ∗ 29% 31% ∗ 28% 24% 29%
Totals 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (404) (184) (220) (49) (226) (115) (15) (104) (152) (128)

Concern 72% 75% ∗ 71% 73% 69% 71% ∗ 76%

Not a concern 28% 25% ∗ 29% 27% 31% 29% ∗ 24%
Totals 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100%
Weighted N (404) (175) (79) (137) (111) (147) (258) (60) (56)
77
46D. Parental Concerns — Classes discussing racial history in the U.S.

Gender Age Ideology

Concern 44% 56% 35% ∗ 47% 37% ∗ 37% 44% 52%

Not a concern 56% 44% 65% ∗ 53% 63% ∗ 63% 56% 48%
Totals 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (404) (184) (221) (49) (226) (116) (15) (106) (150) (128)

Concern 44% 42% ∗ 60% 46% 41% 43% ∗ 62%

Not a concern 56% 58% ∗ 40% 54% 59% 57% ∗ 38%
Totals 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100%
Weighted N (404) (175) (79) (137) (111) (148) (259) (59) (56)
78
46E. Parental Concerns — Classes discussing issues of sexuality and gender

Gender Age Ideology

Concern 57% 57% 58% ∗ 56% 51% ∗ 36% 61% 75%

Not a concern 43% 43% 42% ∗ 44% 49% ∗ 64% 39% 25%
Totals 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (406) (185) (221) (49) (226) (117) (15) (106) (152) (128)

Concern 57% 48% ∗ 72% 56% 54% 55% ∗ 60%

Not a concern 43% 52% ∗ 28% 44% 46% 45% ∗ 40%
Totals 100% 100% ∗ 100% 100% 100% 100% ∗ 100%
Weighted N (406) (176) (79) (137) (111) (148) (259) (60) (56)
79
47. Legality of Abortion in State

Do you want abortion in [State] to be...
Gender Age Ideology

Legal in all cases 31% 25% 35% 29% 40% 29% 25% 66% 26% 7%
Legal in most cases 30% 30% 31% 32% 26% 32% 32% 28% 45% 21%
Illegal in most cases 30% 35% 26% 28% 21% 32% 37% 5% 24% 55%
Illegal in all cases 9% 10% 8% 10% 12% 7% 6% 1% 5% 17%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,108) (987) (1,121) (327) (485) (735) (560) (565) (655) (787)

Legal in all cases 31% 53% 27% 10% 24% 32% 27% 41% 35%
Legal in most cases 30% 35% 31% 26% 30% 30% 30% 36% 28%
Illegal in most cases 30% 9% 36% 48% 35% 31% 34% 16% 29%
Illegal in all cases 9% 3% 6% 16% 11% 7% 9% 7% 8%
Totals 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Weighted N (2,108) (764) (533) (749) (858) (636) (1,494) (254) (221)
80
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED AND THE
MARGIN OF ERROR CALCULATED
The CBS News/YouGov survey of 2,119 registered voters was conducted between October 26-28,
2022.
This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based
on U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey,
as well as 2020 Presidential vote. “Likely voters” – respondents’ relative probabilities of voting
– were determined using a regression model that incorporates current, self-reported intentions
to vote, along with individual-level and aggregate data about voters, such as demographics and
vote history. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters in the U.S. The
weights range from 0.05 to 5.2, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.5.
The margin of error (a 95% confidence interval) for a sample percentage p based upon the entire
sample is approximately 2.4%. It is calculated using the formula
s
1 + CV2
p̂ ± 100 ×
n
where CV is the coefficient of variation of the sample weights and n is the sample size used
to compute the proportion. This is a measure of sampling error (the average of all estimates
obtained using the same sample selection and weighting procedures repeatedly). The sample
estimate should differ from its expected value by less than margin of error in 95 percent of
all samples. It does not reflect non-sampling errors, including potential selection bias in panel
participation or in response to a particular survey.
1
HOUSE MODEL METHODOLOGY
October 30, 2022
The estimated numbers of Republican and Democratic seats come from a statistical model de-
veloped by YouGov and CBS News. YouGov surveyed a total of 25,084 registered voters between
October 15-28, 2022, including voters in every U.S. congressional district and respondents from
this Battleground Tracker national poll (conducted October 26-28, 2022).
While this is a large sample, we nonetheless use the model to produce more reliable estimates for
districts than would be achievable based on the amount of sample in any of them alone. We use
multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) to estimate district-level voting intentions.
The idea behind MRP is to identify consistent patterns in the survey data on voting intentions
and then to apply these to people with similar demographics in similar districts.
We first fit a model estimating the probability that each registered voter will turn out to vote
in the midterm election in November. We then fit a regression model to estimate which party
voters in the sample intend to vote for, making use of the vote choices expressed in the survey
and the characteristics of voters expressing them. Both of these models include as predictors
voters’ demographics, past voting behavior, and district characteristics. We estimate the support
for each party in each district by computing the product of the probability of turning out and
the probability of voting for that party for each person on the voter file and summing within the
district.
These model estimates are subject to statistical error. We run a simulation using the posterior
sampling distribution calibrated to reflect historical error rates, in order to obtain a range of seat
estimates. We report 95% confidence intervals from the simulations. Moreover, these estimates
indicate which party is currently ahead and may change as additional data is collected closer to
the election

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CBS News Battleground Tracker – October 26-28, 2022

Registered Voters in the U.S.

2022 HOUSE ESTIMATE

Sample 2,119 Registered Voters in the U.S.

1. Generally speaking, do you feel things in America today are going...

Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

8. How [do/did] you feel about voting in the election in November?

Very Somewhat Not too/not

Credit Blame Neither

Would Would not

Would Would not

46. Which, if any, of these concern you at your child’s school?

47. Do you want abortion in [State] to be...

Questions held for future release.

Gender Age Ideology

Very well 6% 9% 4% 12% 13% 2% 2% 8% 8% 3%

Party ID White by Education Race

Very well 6% 11% 3% 4% 3% 7% 5% 11% 11%

2. Condition of National Economy

Gender Age Ideology

Very good 7% 11% 4% 14% 16% 3% 3% 9% 10% 4%

Party ID White by Education Race

Very good 7% 13% 2% 6% 5% 7% 6% 10% 13%

3. Biden Job Approval (2 Categories)

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

4. Biden Job Approval (4 Categories)

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

5. Attention to Midterm Election

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

6. Midterm Likely Voter

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

7. Reasons for Not Voting

Gender Age Ideology

Sometimes I think the whole system is bad 37% ∗ 38% ∗ 33% ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗

Party ID White by Education Race

Sometimes I think the whole system is bad 37% ∗ ∗ ∗ 45% ∗ 40% ∗ ∗

8. Enthusiasm for Voting

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

9. Importance of Midterm Voting

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

10. Generic House Vote

Gender Age Ideology

Party ID White by Education Race

11. Democratic Voter Consider Voting Republican

Gender Age Ideology

Yes 8% 11% 6% 17% 14% 5% 5% 5% 12% ∗

Party ID White by Education Race

Yes 8% 7% 8% ∗ 11% 7% 9% 6% 14%

12. Republican Voter Consider Voting Democratic

Gender Age Ideology

Yes 12% 14% 9% ∗ 27% 10% 4% ∗ 22% 7%