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Money Inflow
Money Inflow
Money Inflow
will fuel inflation and drive the real effec- country to country, and policies must be
Some developing and transi- tive exchange rate to unsustainably high tailored to the circumstances of individual
levels. countries.
tion countries are attracting Policymakers faced with the threat of
large inflows of foreign capital overheating in the wake of large capital Identifying the causes
inflows have to make difficult decisions on For the purposes of this article, the
that could destabilize their the magnitude, sequencing, and timing of causes of capital inflows can be grouped
economies. To design policies policy actions. These decisions need to be into three major categories: autonomous
based on the recipient country’s economic increases in the domestic money demand
that will enable them to guard objectives, exchange rate regime, institu- function; increases in the domestic produc-
against this danger, they need tional constraints, and, especially, the tivity of capital; and external factors, such
causes and composition of the inflows. In as falling international interest rates. The
to identify what is driving the
practice, however, it is difficult, at least first two are usually referred to as “pull”
inflows. in the early stages, to identify the causes factors, the third as “push” factors.
and to distinguish between temporary The economic impact of capital inflows
and sustainable inflows. Judgments must and the need, if any, for a policy response
I
N RECENT years, a number of devel- therefore be made on the basis of limited are likely to be determined by the forces
oping and transition countries have information. driving them, as well as by the recipient
enjoyed large inflows of foreign capi- This article sets out a stylized frame- country’s exchange rate regime. Under a
tal that have eased their financing work that addresses two questions. First, fully flexible exchange rate system, capital
constraints. Despite their obvious benefits which financial indicators would be most inflows (regardless of what is driving them)
—increased efficiency and a better alloca- useful to policymakers in identifying the will lead to appreciation of the recipient
tion of capital, and associated transfers of causes of capital inflows? Second, what country’s currency, a drop in the relative
technology—the inflows have aroused con- would the appropriate policy responses be price of imported goods, and a shift of con-
cern because of their potential effects on in different situations? This framework can sumption away from nontradables—all of
macroeconomic stability, the competitive- do no more than provide general guidelines, which tend to alleviate inflationary pres-
ness of the export sector, and external via- however. Capital inflows are determined by sures. Therefore, all other things being
bility. The most serious risks are that they a combination of causes that varies from equal, the more flexible the exchange rate,
Table 2
Instruments for managing capital inflows
A matrix for countries with balanced macroeconomic policies
Sterilization May be needed to smooth fluctuations. May be needed to smooth fluctuations. Is appropriate.
Exchange rate appreciation Equilibrium real effective exchange The warranted appreciation of the equilibrium Equilibrium real exchange rate
rate does not change. real effective exchange rate can be achieved need not change. Temporary
partly through nominal appreciation and nominal appreciation of the
partly through increases in the prices of exchange rate may be warranted
nontraded goods. if there are constraints on
sterilization.
Fiscal policy No policy response is required. Fiscal policy tightening is generally required, If the constraints on sterilization
especially if the absorptive capacity of the are too severe and the external
economy is limited relative to the size of the competitive position is weak, then
inflows. some fiscal tightening may have
to be considered.