COMMENTS

minimum pressure 882 hPa), the most intense storm

Hurricanes and ever in the Gulf of Mexico (Rita, 897 hPa), and the

Global W a r m i n g — most costly storm on record (Katrina; some estimates

Potential Linkages a n d
Consequences
— R I C H A R D A . ANTHES
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
— R O B E R T W . CORELL
American Meteorological Society
Washington, D.C.
— G R E G H O L L A N D A N D JAMES W . H U R R E L L
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
—MICHAEL C . MACCRACKEN
Climate Institute
Washington, D.C.
— K E V I N E . TRENBERTH
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, Colorado
put the cost of Katrina at as high as $200 billion; see
information online at www.rms.com/Publications/
KatrinaReport_Lessonsandlmplications.pdf). (Please
see www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/
hurricanes05.html for additional details.)
The climate is in the process of a rapid warming,
caused in part by human activities, including emis-
sion of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, and
changes in land use (Houghton et al. 2001; Karl and
Trenberth 2003). These climate changes may well be
changing the properties of tropical cyclones, yet the
potential relationships between climate change and
tropical cyclones and the consequences for humans
have been downplayed or dismissed by a number of
recent articles, testimonies, and press releases (e.g.,
Michaels et al. 2005; 1 Pielke et al. 2005; Mayfield
2005). For example, the recent article with the all-
encompassing title "Hurricanes and global warming"
by Pielke et al. (2005) raises several important points,
yet it is incomplete and misleading because it 1) omits
any mention of several of the most important aspects
of the potential relationships between hurricanes and
global warming, including rainfall, sea level, and
storm surge; 2) leaves the impression that there is no
significant connection between recent climate change
caused by human activities and hurricane character-

T
he potential relationships between tropical
cyclones and global climate change are scientifi-
cally and socially complex, with great implica-
tions for society. The exceptional nature of the 2005
North Atlantic hurricane season alone provides great
incentives for better understanding the full range of
interactions and causes and effects thereof. The 2005
season saw the largest number (27) of named storms
(sustained winds over 17 m s_1) and the largest num-
ber (14) of hurricanes (sustained winds over 33 m s_1),
and it was the only year with three category 5 storms
(maximum sustained winds over 67 m s -1 ). Also re-
corded was the most intense storm on record (Wilma,
istics and impacts; and 3) does not take full account
of the significance of recently identified trends and
variations in tropical storms in causing impacts as
compared to increasing societal vulnerability. In
a similar vein, public statements and testimonies
by prominent hurricane forecasters have denied or
minimized important connections between global
warming and tropical cyclones, attributing interan-
nual variations in tropical cyclones only to natural
variability (e.g., Mayfield 2005).
It is true that society's vulnerability to hurricane
damage is increasing rapidly, predominantly because
of the rise in population and property values near

DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-5-623 Please see rebuttal by Knutson and Tuleya 2005

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY MAY 2006 BAF15- I 623

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 coastlines. Yet, it is this very increase in vulnerability
that makes it even more important to identify and
understand both interannual variability and possible
relationships between tropical cyclones and climate
change. Although there remains much uncertainty
about these relationships, there are many reasons
for concern. It is thus important to consider the full
range of relationships and scenarios and to take them
seriously.
C H A N G E S IN CLIMATE A N D TROPICAL
C Y C L O N E S . Global and tropical atmospheric
temperatures near the surface and aloft (Parker et al.
2004; Jones and Moberg 2003; Smith and Reynolds
2005; Santer et al. 2005) are increasing, as is water
vapor (Trenberth et al. 2005). Tropical oceans have
warmed about 0.6°C over the instrumental record,
including about 0.5°C since 1970 (Fig. 1), and sea
levels are rising (Cazenave and Nerem 2004; Lombard
et al. 2005). There is little doubt that the recently
observed increases are due to anthropogenic ef-
fects (Meehl et al. 2004), and models project these
increases to continue well into this century under
all plausible scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions
(Houghton et al. 2001). It is well known that tropical
cyclones form only over warm oceans from which
they gain their energy, largely from the latent heat
of condensation (e.g., Anthes 1982; Emanuel 1987;
Holland 1997). Thus, it would not be surprising if
a warmer and moister world contained enhanced
overall hurricane activity. Indeed, a gathering of
hurricane specialists concluded in 1998 that the most
likely projection was that intensity (as measured by
maximum winds) would increase by the order of 10%
for a doubled C0 2 environment (Henderson-Sellers
et al. 1998). Houghton et al. (2001) similarly projected
FIG. I. T i m e series o f g l o b a l a n n u a l S S T a n o m a l i e s ( ° C )
over t h e Tropics f r o m 2 0 ° N to 20°S (bars) and w i t h a
s e v e n - p o i n t f i l t e r (solid l i n e ) t h a t e m p h a s i z e s d e c a d a l
v a r i a t i o n s . T h e v a l u e s a r e d e p a r t u r e s f r o m t h e 1961 - 9 0
c l i m a t o l o g i c a l a n n u a l a v e r a g e f r o m t h e R a y n e r e t al.
( 2 0 0 3 ) d a t a s e t . [ F i g u r e c o u r t e s y John Fasullo, N C A R . ]
624 I BAI15- MAY 2006
that tropical cyclones' peak winds and precipitation
were likely to increase during this century.
Recent observational work has indicated that
overall intensity has increased substantially since
the 1970s (Emanuel 2005a,b; Webster et al. 2005),
and modeling studies indicate that both wind speeds
and rainfall are projected to rise as well (Knutson and
Tuleya 2004). This broad consistency between obser-
vations, models, and theory is a powerful indicator
that we are likely already experiencing more intense
tropical cyclones as a result of global warming.
Furthermore, as discussed below, there is increasing
evidence that the atmospheric general circulation
patterns are changing, and it is likely that the number,
tracks, and other characteristics of tropical cyclones
will change under the new circulation patterns in a
warmer world. With a rising sea level due to warmer
oceans and melting glaciers and ice sheets, moreover,
beach and wetland erosion and storm surges associ-
ated with tropical cyclones will cause greater impacts
even if other aspects of tropical cyclones were to
remain the same. Although rainfall-induced inland
flooding and storm surge are the leading causes of
damage and loss of life in hurricanes (Simpson and
Riehl 1981; Pielke and Pielke 1997; Rappaport 2000;
Negri et al. 2005), possible increases in these due to
global warming are not considered by Pielke et al.
(2005).
Knutson and Tuleya (2004) ran several versions of
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra-
tion's (NOAA's) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labora-
tory hurricane model in a C0 2 -enriched world. The
large-scale thermodynamic boundary conditions for
the experiments, specifically sea surface temperature
(SST) and atmospheric profiles of temperature and
moisture, were based on 80-year linear trends from
1% yr-1 C0 2 increase experiments from nine differ-
ent climate model simulations. The projected SST
changes in the three tropical cyclone basins studied
ranged from +0.8° to +2.4°C. The aggregate results,
averaged across all model simulations, indicated a 6%
increase in maximum tropical cyclone wind speed.
While this may appear to be a relatively insignificant
increase, nonlinear effects can make even a small
increase important in causing damage, because dam-
age is proportional to the cube of the wind speed.
A recent study by Emanuel (2005a,b) shows a 70%
increase since the mid-1970s of an index of hurri-
cane activity related to the total power dissipation,
which is proportional to the cube of the maximum
wind speed, integrated over the lifetime of the storm.
Moreover this index is very strongly correlated with
SSTs. Another study by Webster et al. (2005) indicates
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a large increase over the past 35 years in the number
and proportion of intense hurricanes (those reaching
categories 4 and 5) in all hurricane basins, although
there is no significant change in the total number of
tropical cyclones over this period.
The role of building codes is also relevant. Codes
vary with location, but they typically require build-
ings to withstand winds up to some threshold speed,
such as 120 mph (Pielke and Pielke 1997). Thus, even
relatively small increases in mean maximum wind
speeds may shift the probability distribution func-
tion and cause a significant increase in the number
of occurrences of winds exceeding a given threshold,
resulting in catastrophic failures for infrastructure
designed to the threshold. Further, experience with
Hurricane Andrew (1992) showed only too well that
building codes are not always strictly enforced.
Modeling results also indicate that increasing
ocean temperatures will lead to a significantly larger
percentage change in the number and characteristics
of heavy precipitation events. Knutson and Tuleya
(2004) found on average an 18% increase in peak
tropical cyclone precipitation rates at the time of C 0 2
doubling. While tropical cyclone rainfall is highly
variable and dependent on many factors, there is evi-
dence that the frequency of heavy rainfall events is in-
creasing worldwide (Trenberth et al. 2003; Trenberth
2005), and water vapor over the oceans is estimated
to have increased by 4% since 1970 (Trenberth et al.
2005). Thus, it is quite plausible that tropical cy-
clone rainfall will increase with time as the climate
warms and moistens. Higher precipitation rates and
amounts, especially in mountainous regions, would
significantly increase flooding, leading to more
extensive damage and loss of life, because virtually
all additional precipitation on water-saturated soils
goes into runoff.
Another critical issue is that of the impacts of
hurricanes and sea level rise, which is often ignored
(e.g., Pielke et al. 2005). Douglas et al. (2001) describe
how even a minimal rise in sea level can have cata-
strophic consequences when intense storms strike. 2
Global warming is leading to sea level rise, averaging
3 mm y r 1 over the past decade (when satellite altime-
try provides greater confidence; Cazenave and Nerem
2004), and the midrange projection is for a further
0.5 m rise over the twenty-first century (Houghton
2 For example, models and observations show that long-term
sandy beach erosion is two orders of magnitude larger than the
rate of sea level rise, because "increased sea level enables high- perature due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols,
energy, short-period storm waves to attack farther up the beach
and transport sand offshore" (Douglas et al. 2001, p. 190).
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
et al. 2001; Meehl et al. 2005). Even without the pro-
jected increase in hurricane winds, the higher sea
level will result in greatly increased coastal erosion,
shrinking protective beaches and wetlands. In addi-
tion, storm-induced flooding and storm surges will
reach farther inland, and damage can be projected to
be considerably more extensive. Louisiana's coast is
the poster child of what the accelerated sea level rise
rate will mean to many other locations in the United
States and around the world, for example, Bangladesh
(Glantz 1988). As summarized in the Working Group
II assessment of McCarthy et al. (2001), model pro-
jections of the mean annual number of people who
would be flooded by coastal storm surges increase
several-fold (75-200 million, depending on the adap-
tive response) for midrange scenarios of a 0.4-m sea
level rise by the 2080s relative to scenarios with no
sea level rise. It is also important to note that local
changes in sea level can be much greater than global
mean changes due to land subsidence and changes in
large-scale ocean and atmosphere circulations (NRC
1990; McCarthy et al. 2001).
Several studies (Landsea et al. 1998, Pielke et al.
2005) have concluded that the recent observed in-
creases in Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity
are within the range of observed multidecadal vari-
ability. A number of multi-year-scale atmospheric
and oceanic patterns of variability, including the
El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, the
quasi-biennial oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscilla-
tion (NAO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
(AMO), have a large impact on hurricane frequency,
intensity, and tracks. But to therefore assume that all
of the variability during the twentieth century has
been natural is not valid (e.g., Houghton et al. 2001;
Feldstein 2002; Gillett et al. 2003; Hoerling et al.
2004; Gillett et al. 2005). In particular, the impact
on tropical cyclones of multidecadal variations tends
to be specific to each ocean basin and compensated
globally by opposite fluctuations elsewhere. However,
the study by Webster et al. (2005) shows an increase of
category 4 and 5 hurricanes in all ocean basins, and
an overall global increase thereof. Although there is
uncertainty in the global tropical cyclone best-track
dataset used in their study, this is the type of signature
that would be expected from global warming changes
rather than from natural variability alone.
Recent detection and attribution studies indicate
that human influences have, over the past 35 years,
caused both regional increases and decreases in tem-
respectively (Houghton et al. 2001; Barnett et al. 2005;
Hansen et al. 2005). The time-varying latitudinal and
MAY 2006 BAF15- I 625
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 regional patterns of radiative forcing caused by the
globally well-mixed greenhouse gases and the spa-
tially heterogeneous concentrations of sulfate aerosol
have already disturbed the atmospheric and oceanic
circulation. For instance, it is possible that the AMO,
which plays a large role in Atlantic hurricane fre-
quency and tracks (Kerr 2005) as well as the intensity
and duration (Emanuel 2005a,b), is being affected by
human-induced climate change. The AMO describes
multidecadal variations in SSTs that are likely driven
by variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation (MOC; Delworth and Mann 2000; Knight
et al. 2005). Further, as shown by Dickson et al. (2002)
and Curry et al. (2003), changes in the freshwater
balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four de-
cades include freshening in the North Atlantic and
also south of 25°S, while salinity has increased in the
Tropics and subtropics, especially in the upper 500 m.
The implication is that there have been substantial
increases in moisture transport by the atmosphere
from the subtropics to higher latitudes, in associa-
tion with changes in atmospheric circulation, such
as the NAO, and global climate change. Such changes
impact the ocean currents and likely the AMO. Most
global coupled ocean-atmosphere models project
some weakening of the Atlantic MOC in response to
increasing GHG concentrations (e.g., Houghton et al.
2001), and a recent study by Bryden et al. (2005) in-
dicates that the thermohaline circulation has slowed
by up to 30%. A reasonable conclusion is that the
observed warming of the tropical oceans in recent
decades (Fig. 1) and related changes in atmospheric
and oceanic circulations contain an anthropogenic
component (e.g., Knutson et al. 1999; Hurrell et al.
2004; Barnett et al. 2005).
C O N C L U D I N G R E M A R K S . Because of natural
variability, no one event or a single season like
2005 can be attributed solely to changes in climate.
However, it is equally inappropriate to declare or
imply that the current observed global changes and
seasons with storms of unusually high frequency or
intensity are not related to global warming and that
there will not be a significant change in climate in the
future. It should be recognized that the issue is not
black or white, but rather that global warming has a
pervasive influence on ocean SST and heat content,
atmospheric temperature, water vapor, and atmo-
spheric and oceanic general circulation patterns, all
of which affect tropical cyclones in complex, not yet
fully understood ways.
However, while there are obvious large and
natural oscillations, in our view the growing body
626 I BAI15- MAY 2006
of evidence suggests a direct and growing trend in
several important aspects of tropical cyclones, such
as intensity, rainfall, and sea level, all of which can be
attributed to global warming. Aspects of the associa-
tion between global warming and tropical cyclones
and other extreme atmospheric events are uncertain,
in part because climate change is continuous, yet
irregular. However, in a warmer, moister world with
higher SSTs, higher sea level, altered atmospheric
and oceanic circulations, and increased societal
vulnerability, it would be surprising if there were no
significant changes in tropical cyclone characteris-
tics and their impacts on society. Indeed, the broad
agreement between theoretical and modeling studies,
together with the strong evidence from observational
analysis, suggests that not only will tropical cyclone
intensity increase with anthropogenic warming,
but that this process has already commenced. The
precautionary principle argues for further scientific
study and better planning and adaptation. Research
is needed to enhance understanding and long-term
projections, to improve forecasting and warnings
of tropical cyclones worldwide, and to better assess
vulnerability. Based on what is already known and
can be projected into the future, it would be prudent
to improve planning and carry out mitigation mea-
sures such as trying to minimize possible losses
through enhanced building codes, restrictions on
where to build, and improving infrastructure to
cope with winds and floods, even if some of the more
extreme scenarios do not eventuate.
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Reply t o ' ' H u r r i c a n e s
and Global W a r m i n g —
Potential Linkages a n d
Consequences"
— R O G E R PIELKE JR.
Center for Science and Technology Policy Research
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado
— C H R I S T O P H E R LANDSEA
N O A A AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Miami, Florida
— M A X MAYFIELD
Tropical Prediction Center
Miami, Florida
— J I M LAVER
Climate Prediction Center
NOAA/National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Camp Springs, Maryland
— R I C H A R D PASCH
Tropical Prediction Center
Miami, Florida
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-5-628
W
e appreciate the effort taken by Anthes et al.
(2006) to respond to our paper "Hurricanes
and global warming." Such open exchanges can
help to clarify not only different perspectives on science,
but also different perspectives on the structure and func-
tion of scientific assessments of peer-reviewed literature.
We are very pleased that there appears to be a
strong consensus among Pielke et al. (2005) and
Anthes et al. (2006) on what sorts of policy actions
make the most sense with respect to hurricane [here-
after, tropical cyclone (TC)] impacts in the context of
ever-growing societal vulnerability. It would therefore
be a misinterpretation of Anthes et al. (2006) or Pielke
et al. (2005) to suggest that they support significantly
different approaches to dealing with the impacts of
tropical cyclones.
Anthes et al. (2006) present three criticisms of our
paper. One criticism is that Pielke et al. (2005) "leaves
the impression that there is no significant connection
between recent climate change caused by human
activities and hurricane characteristics and impacts."
If by "significant" they mean either (a) presence in
the peer-reviewed literature or (b) discernible in the
observed economic impacts, then this is indeed an
accurate reading. Anthes et al. (2006) provide no
data, analyses, or references that directly connect
observed hurricane characteristics and impacts to
anthropogenic climate change.

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 Anthes et al. (2006) include several important in-
consistencies. First, Anthes et al. (2006) cite Emanuel
(2005a) and Webster et al. (2005) to support claims of
attribution of trends in hurricane intensity to global
warming, when neither of those papers focused on
attribution. Emanuel (2005a) expressed some un-
certainty as to the factors responsible for the trends
presented in that paper, stating "Whatever the cause,
the near doubling of power dissipation over the pe-
riod of record should be a matter of some concern"
(emphasis added). Webster et al. (2005) even go so far
as to observe that "attribution of the 30-year trends
to global warming would require a longer global data
record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the
role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the
atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate
state." 1 Future research may indeed demonstrate
attribution, but until that time we should not make
the mistake of confusing interesting hypotheses with
conclusive research results.
Second, Anthes et al. (2006) neglect two recent
papers contradicting the notion that there are changes
to hurricane characteristics and impacts outside of
that expected due to natural climate variability. In
a comment on Emanuel (2005a), Landsea (2005)
demonstrated that in employing a correct analysis
and not utilizing an out-of-date bias-removal scheme,
the last 10 years of activity in the Atlantic basin were
virtually indistinguishable from that which occurred
during the middle of the twentieth century. Landsea
(2005) also showed a century-long time series of
U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones that has distinct
multidecadal variations, but no long-term upward
trend similiar to SSTs. Pielke (2005) presented data
indicating that the extreme impacts that occurred
in the United States during the 2004 and 2005 hur-
ricane seasons were not to be unexpected given the
huge population and coastal infrastructure buildup
in recent years. 2 Emanuel's (2005b) reply to both
comments conceded the revised Atlantic hurricane
analysis change, and suggested that the lack of detec-
tion of hurricane impacts as well as the U.S. tropical
cyclone record may suffer from having a too low
signal-to-noise ratio.
Third, Anthes et al. (2006) systematically con-
flate model projections with observations of actual
trends. For instance, Anthes et al. (2006) suggest that
1 Please note that both K. Emanuel and P. Webster and col-
leagues have expressed their view that attribution will occur
in the literature at some point in the future.
2 Neither comment addressed the other basin studied by
Emanuel (2005a) (i.e., the western North Pacific basin).
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
Knutson and Tuleya's (2004) findings are consistent
with the trends in TC intensity presented in Emanuel
(2005a) and Webster et al. (2005). In fact, if Emanuel's
and Webster et al.'s analyses of recent trends are ac-
curate, they call into question the theoretical basis
of Knutson and Tuleya (2004). What Knutson and
Tuleya (2004) concluded is at odds with the recent
publications on trends:
An important issue is whether and when any CO2-
induced increase of tropical cyclone intensity is likely
to be detectable in the observations. The magnitude
of the simulated increase in our experiments is about
+6% for maximum tropical cyclone surface winds...
The SST changes observed for the past 50 yr in the
Tropics imply that the likely SST-inferred intensity
change for the past half century is small, relative to
both the limited accuracy of historical records of
storm intensity and to the apparently large magni-
tude of interannual variability of storm intensities in
some basins. This further implies that C02-induced
tropical cyclone intensity changes are unlikely to be
detectable in historical observations and will probably
not be detectable for decades to come.
Such conclusions were mirrored in the theoretical
work by Emanuel (2004):
Can one detect an actual increase in global tropi-
cal cyclone intensity?... Since 1950 . . . one would
expect to have observed an average increase in in-
tensity of around 0.5 m/s or 1 knot. Because tropical
cyclone maximum wind speeds are only reported at
5-knot intervals and are not believed to be accurate
to better than 5 to 10 knots, and given the large
interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity,
such an increase would not be detectable. Thus any
increase in hurricane intensity that may have already
occurred as a result of global warming is inconse-
quential compared to natural variability.
Emanuel (2005a) and Webster et al. (2005) provide
fundamental surprises in the field because of the
theoretical and numerical modeling work to date that
global warming would cause an undetectable change
in TC intensities in the recent past and in decades
to come. To state that recent studies demonstrate a
"broad consistency between observations, models,
and theory" dramatically misleads readers about our
understanding of the science of global warming and
hurricanes today. Anthes (2005) presented a much
more accurate description of the state of science on
TCs and climate observing that
MAY 2006BAF15-I79
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 "it will be a number of years—perhaps many—before
we know the relationships between climate change
and the various characteristics of tropical cyclones
(e.g., frequency, intensity, rainfall)... Whatever the
relationship between hurricanes and global warm-
ing turns out to be, it is not likely to be simple " ences provided by Anthes et al. (2006) to counter
In a second criticism, Anthes et al. (2006) point
out (quite accurately) that Pielke et al. (2005) failed
to discuss the relationship between global warming
and rainfall, sea level, and storm surge as related to
tropical cyclones. The explanation for this neglect is
simple—there is no documented relationship between
global warming and the observed behavior of tropi-
cal cyclones (or TC impacts) related to rainfall, sea
level, or storm surge. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) does expect in the future
an intensification of the hydrological cycle, including
increased precipitation (IPCC 2001). With respect to
rainfall observations to date, a global study has yet
to be conducted; however, Groisman et al. (2004)
showed no trends in U.S. tropical storm and hurri-
cane precipitation, though substantial multidecadal
variations have been analyzed. This is consistent with
expectations for a minor increase in tropical cyclone
rainfall several decades from now. Like tropical cy-
clone intensity change, definitive linkages between
greenhouse gases and tropical cyclone precipitation
may be difficult to conclusively attribute because of
the relative size of the expected signal as compared
to documented variability. Indeed, International Ad
Hoc Detection and Attribution Group (2005) was
unable to attribute historical trends and variations
in precipitation to greenhouse gases, so there is no
observational basis presently for claiming a linkage
between greenhouse gases and TC-related rainfall.
Sea levels, on the other hand, have increased over
recent decades, and some part of this rise has been
attributed to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2001).
We agree that sea level rise will contribute to in-
creased impacts from storm surge even if hurricanes
do not substantially increase in intensity due to global
warming, especially in areas that are experiencing
land subsidence and coastal erosion. It is important
to better quantify the impacts that sea level rise is
having today and will have in the future upon storm
surge damage in light of massive societal alterations
that are occurring along our coasts.
A final criticism by Anthes et al. (2006) is that
Pielke et al. (2005) "does not take full account of the
significance of recently identified trends and varia-
tions in tropical storms in causing impacts as com-
pared to increasing societal vulnerability." Anthes
630 I BAI15- MAY 2006
et al. (2006) make no reference to the literature that
seeks to distinguish the relative role of climate fac-
tors versus societal factors in causing impacts (e.g.,
Pielke et al. 2000; Pielke 2005), so their point is
unclear. There is simply no evidence, data, or refer-
the analysis in Pielke et al. (2000) that calculates the
relative sensitivity of future global tropical cyclone
impacts to the independent effects of projected
climate change and various scenarios of growing
societal vulnerability under the assumptions of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Even
inventing hypothetical scenarios where projected
changes in tropical cyclones in the IPCC Second As-
sessment Report (SAR) were off by as much as 100%
or more would not fundamentally alter the conclu-
sions of Pielke et al. (2000).
In conclusion, a recent consensus statement from
the World Meteorological Organization's Tropical
Meteorology Research Program Panel (McBride
et al. 2006) accurately summarizes the current state
of science:
The research issues discussed here are in a fluid state
and are the subject of much current investigation.
Given time the problem of causes and attribution
of the events of 2004-2005 will be discussed and
argued in the refereed scientific literature. Prior
to this happening it is not possible to make any
authoritative comment.
On issues of impacts and policy, it is possible to
make an authoritative comment, which is provided
in Pielke et al. (2005).
REFERENCES
Anthes, R., 2005: Hurricane Katrina: An act of God?
UCAR Quarterly, Fall. [Available online at http://
www.ucar.edu/communications/quarterly/fall05/
president.html.]
Anthes, R. A., R. W. Corell, G. Holland, J. W. Hurrell,
M. C. McCracken, and K. E. Trenberth, 2006:
Hurricanes and global warming—Potential link-
ages and consequences. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
87, 623-628.
Emanuel, K., 2004: Response of Tropical Cyclone
Activity to Climate Change: Theoretical Basis.
Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future,
R. J. Murname and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia
University Press, 395-407.
, 2005a: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cy-
clones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436,686-688.
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 , 2005b: Emanuel replies. Nature, 438, E13,
doi:10.1038/nature04427.
Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling,
B. Sun, and J. H. Lawrimore. 2004: Contemporary
changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous
United States: Trends derived from in situ observa-
tions. /. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.
International Ad Hoc Detection and Attribution Group,
2005: Detecting and attributing external influences
on the climate system: A review of recent advances.
/. Climate, 18, 1291-1314
IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Third As-
sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
881 pp.
Knutson, T. R., and R. E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2-
induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity
and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate
model and convective parameterization. /. Climate,
17, 3477-3495.
Landsea, C., 2005: Hurricanes and global warming.
Nature, 438, E11-E13.
McBride, J., and Coauthors, 2006: Statement on tropical
cyclones and climate change. WMO/CAS Tropical
Meteorology Research Program, Steering Committee
for Project TC-2: Scientific Assessment of Climate
Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones. [Available online
at www.bom.gov.au/info/CAS-statement.pdf.]
Pielke, R. A., Jr., 2005: Are there trends in hurricane
destruction? Nature, 438, Ell
, R. A. Klein, and D. Sarewitz, 2000: Turning the
big knob: Energy policy as a means to reduce weather
impacts. Energy Environ., 11, 255-276.
, C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, and R. Pasch,
2005: Hurricanes and global warming. Bull. Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 86, 1571-1575.
Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R.
Chang, 2005: Changes in tropical cyclone number,
duration, and intensity in a warming environment.
Science, 309, 1844-1846.

Call for Weather-Related Art and Photos

The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society invites submission of original, weather-related
art and photos for potential publication in future issues of the magazine. The Bulletin staff is especially
interested in work that is artistic and creative, featuring a unique, interesting perspective; chosen works
will be used to help add more graphic appeal to the Bulletin. Specific use of the images will be determined
by the production staff. Please be aware that your submission will not be peer reviewed—we will be look-
ing at submissions more from an aesthetic viewpoint than a scientific one. (Photos intended for scientific
publication should be submitted following normal Bulletin guidelines for peer-reviewed submissions.)
Nonetheless, all submissions will be given equal consideration.
We hope that you will take this ongoing opportunity to inspire your colleagues and shape the look of
your Society's publication. Ownership of the works will be retained by the artist/photographer; we do
not offer payment for published submissions.
Submission requirements: For artwork, please do not submit the original work of art—send only
a high-quality color photo of the piece. For art and all other photographs submitted for consideration,
send only first-quality, camera-ready prints or slides (no photocopies, please). Submissions will not be
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Please include with the submission your name, the title of the work (if applicable), and any other relevant
information. If a description of the submission would be helpful, please include a succinct caption.
Please submit your work to: David Gershman, Manager of Art and Design, AMS, 45 Beacon St.,
Boston, MA 02108-3693.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY MAY 2006 BAF15- I 631

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 edited by Richard H. Johnson and Robert A. Houze Jr.
with selections by: Lance F. Bosart Robert W. Burpee Anthony Hollingsworth
James R. Holton Brian J, Hoskins Richard S. Lindzen John S. Perry Erik A. Rasmussen
Adrian Simmons Pedro Viterbo

Through a series of reviews by

invited experts, this monograph
pays tribute to Richard Reed's
remarkable contributions to
meteorology and his leadership
in the science community over
the past 50 years. 2003.
Meterological Monograph Series,
Volume 31, Number 53; 139 pages,
hardbound; ISBN 1-878220-58-6;
AMS Code MM53.
List price: $80.00
J AMS Member price: $60.00

632 I BAI15- MAY 2006

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