Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis of Urban Road Networks in Mountainous Areas

Dimitris Sotiriadis1, Nikolaos Klimis2, Basil Margaris3, Isavela Koutsoupaki4, Eleni Petala5, Ioannis Dokas6
1Post-doctoral Researcher, Democritus University of Thrace, dsotiria@civil.duth.gr
2Professor, Democritus University of Thrace, nklimis@civil.duth.gr
3Researcher A, Institute of Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, margaris@itsak.gr
4PhD candidate, Democritus University of Thrace, ekoutsou@civil.duth.gr
5Post-doctoral Researcher, Democritus University of Thrace, epetala@civil.duth.gr
6Associate Professor, Democritus University of Thrace, idokas@civil.duth.gr

Abstract
Τhe natural ground relief in mountainous areas is usually modified, by creating cuts and embankments in
order to facilitate the construction of roads.
Risk is defined as the convolution between exposure, hazard and vulnerability of assets. The purpose of
this study is the assessment of seismic risk of road networks in mountainous areas in Northern Greece.
Vulnerability is defined in terms of fragility curves, which express the probability that a structure will reach
a damage state with respect to the intensity of the considered hazard. Risk assessment is performed along
a vertical road axis connecting the city of Komotini and the Hellenic-Bulgarian borders (Fig. 1). Fragility
curves are developed for cuts, using material properties probabilistically defined for relevant geologic
formations, incorporating the infinite slope sliding model (Fig. 2, 3). The sliding safety factor (Fs) and
permanent ground deformations (PGD), are considered as damage indices and specific thresholds are
assigned to express multiple damage states (Table 1). The verification of the proposed fragility curves is
made against local slope instability analyses for static loading conditions (Table 2). Stabilization measures,
implemented on specific cuts after the initial construction, further verify the fragility curves (Fig. 4).
Combining the probabilistic seismic hazard, fragility and exposure input, probabilistic seismic damage
distributions for 10, 50 and 100 years are derived (Fig. 5). Results indicate the low probability of significant
traffic disturbance due to earthquake for a 10-year period. For longer time periods significant traffic
disturbance is likely to occur.
 (a) (b)

Figure 1: Vertical Road axis under study. (c)

The relevant geologic formation codes
are depicted whereas the white dots
indicate the cut slopes for which seismic
risk has been undertaken.
(d)
Figure 2: Derivation of fragility curves for cut slopes. a) Definition of geologic formation
material properties, b) implementation of infinite slope sliding model for Monte Carlo
simulations, d) Example of fragility curves for various damage states.

Table 1: Definition of damage states due to ground shaking.

Damage Min PGD Max PGD Mean PGD Road serviceability

state (cm) (cm) (cm)
Slight - - - Defined for Fs≤1.0, open road
Minor 2.0 8.0 5.0 Open, reduced speed limits or partially
closed roads
Moderate 8.0 22.0 15.0 Closed or partially closed road
Extensive 22.0 58.0 40.0 Closed road
Figure 3: Fragility curves developed for various damage states and relevant geologic formations (solid line: Ip.gn, dashed line:
Ab,mr2).

Table 2: Verification of proposed fragility curves through site-specific slope stability analyses

Cut slope Geologic Formation Slope angle (°) FSlocal P(FS<1) P(FS<1.25)
Ο5 Ab,mr2 45 0.992 0.6
Ο14-Ο15 Ab,mr2 45 0.97 0.7
Ο16 Ab,mr2 56 1.122 0.87 0.93
Ο21Α Ab,mr2 63 0.83 0.87
Ο21Β Ab,mr2 63 1.22 0.87 0.93
Ο32 Ip.gn 63 1.01 0.58 0.71
Figure 4: Examples of stabilizations measures taken for some the cut-slopes considered, after the initial construction, verifying the
calculation of Fs from local analyses (Fs<1), as well as, the proposed fragility curves under static loading conditions

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 5: Probabilistic seismic damage distribution for cut slopes for investigation time of a) 10, b) 50 and c) 100 years