The research methodology for the development of the project will be similar to that of previous

work, being such that different researchers have carried out similar research methods for the
study of droughts.

The general flow of methodology used by other researchers can be divided into 4 main sections

1. Characterization of drought
a. Collection of information (meteorological, hydrological, virtual, in the field, etc.).
b. Determination of type of drought
c. Delimitation or selection of study variables (depends on the type of drought to be
determined).
2. Information pre-processing
3. Creation and feeding of mathematical model.
a. Selection of one or several machine learning methods.

Some authors, such as Dikshit et al. (2021), classify machine learning methods in a more general
group called Neural Network Architectures, which is subdivided into Machine learning, Deep
Learning and Interpretable Models.

b. Model feeding: short or long-time scale.

c. Review/calibration of the model.
4. Analysis and comments of results.

The main objective of the work is to generate a mathematical model of machine learning that can
predict drought events in the future. For this it will be necessary to collect meteorological
information from the Rio Grande basin, from the Mexican side meteorological data can be
obtained from the national meteorological system, from the United States it will be necessary to
obtain permission from the National Weather service as well as from other meteorological
services.

Since the outcomes of droughts are the outcome of multiple possibilities, is easier to study the
behavior of a drought trough the analysis of drought analysis. Studies have shown the efficiency of
drought indices to forecast drought periods and give meteorological and hydrological information
of the land considering different factors. Some of the most common indices used to study
meteorological drought are the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Drought severity index
(PDSI), among others, the table below resume the common indices and the factors they use for its
calculation.

Drought Index Parameters

Standar Precipitation Index, SPI. Rainfall
Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index,SPEI Rainfall, Potential Evapotranspiration
Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI Rainfall, Temperatur, Available water Capacity
Normalize difference Vegetation Index, NDVI Remote sensing based vegetation index
Respect to the neural architecture, the artificial neural network has given the best results for the
purpose of forecasting droughts, having results of R 2 over 0.90, even though other methods have
been tested, the ANN model will be the testing model for this project due to its precision.

For now, its crucial to investigate the methodologies of calculation for the SPEI and PDSI indices,
as well as the modeling process for the neural architecture.