Political Introduction

With the midterm elections of 2022, the Republicans find themselves in a position of holding a
slight advantage in the House of Representatives and a slight disadvantage in the Senate. This occurs
under the leadership of a weak Democratic president with a poor public approval rating. Besides
increasing signs of age-related incapacity to go along with already poor political skills, Biden finds
himself increasingly beholden to the more radical wing of his party. He also has a vice president who
may have even poorer public approval and political skills, with the added difficulty of an apparent
inability to work productively with subordinates.

The normal ability of a party to force out a president of their party is unlikely to apply with
Biden. The possibility of removing him (voluntarily or involuntarily) through the 25 th amendment
procedure for incapacity would put Vice President Harris into the Oval Office. Given her unpopularity
and inability to work with subordinates, this is unlikely to be viewed as desirable by either Democratic
insiders or outsiders. The more commonly used method of using pressure to convince a sitting president
not to run for reelection (either behind the scenes or by a direct primary challenge) is also unlikely, as
this would normally place the vice president in the lead position. With Harris being already viewed as
political deadweight this is not an appealing proposition. It is also not one that Democrats would be
easily able to avoid. Given her position as the first female vice president of color, the party could not be
seen to be pushing her out of line for the presidency. As a result – and combined with a relatively
shallow back bench of qualified, electable, and nationally-known Democratic politicians – their
Presidential nominee is likely to be extremely weak.

The economy is likely to also be an issue going into the 2024 election. The US is currently in a
recession, and the factors driving it (supply-chain instability, high fuel prices, labor issues) are unlikely to
improve dramatically under the policies put in place by the Biden administration. Judging by the sluggish
economic recovery during the Obama administration, even a quick solution of these issues would not
bring the economy roaring back immediately. The added difficulties caused by inflation make this even
less likely. Rising interest rates, as well as the tendency of Democrats to try to solve issues causing
economic hardship by printing money to throw at them, likely mean that a poor economy and inflation
will continue together through the 2024 election.

The position of the Republican party in Congress – having control in one house, but barely –
means that they are unlikely to be able to significantly influence policy for the next two years, other
than preventing Democrats from imposing even more of their program. Majority will enable Republicans
to do oversight and bring Democratic and government failures to light. Bringing to the surface additional
corruption and overt politicization is very likely to increase the public’s perception of the failures of the
administration.

At the same time, however, it is unlikely that the Republicans will be able to bring about
significant change on their own. Control of only one house means that Republican bills are unlikely to be
passed, and the likely continuation of extreme polarization makes significant cooperation across the
aisle extremely improbable. Moves by the Republicans to force change by refusing to fund the
government unless current practices are modified are also likely to fail due to the slim edge they hold in
the House. Maintaining such an action requires that a majority of the members of the House resist
political pressure and hold the line. The majority is insufficient to supply enough members capable of
withstanding the political pressure, particularly in hotly contested districts.

The Republican position going into 2024, then, will be of a party able to air the failings of an
unpopular administration. They will have spent two years pointing out the flaws, but with insufficient
power to fix them. Particularly if Biden has vetoed reasonable legislation achieved through bipartisan
cooperation, the public perception will be that the Democrats are the problem, and the Republicans at
least have the opportunity to stop the worst excesses and point to potential solutions. A poor economy
and continued inflation will continue harming Americans financially, and drive voters away from the
party under which the problem is occurring. With the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the controversial
topic of abortion will be in the hands of the states, and the Supreme Court decision will be far enough in
the past that it will be hard for Democrats to mobilize their bases nationwide over the issue.

On the whole, this will place Republicans in the best position electorally since at least 2016. In
order to take advantage of this, however, the party will need to stand for something, rather than simply
standing against something. The Republican party finds itself in a unique position thanks to shifts
brought about since Trump’s election in 2016. As an increasingly working-class, multiracial, and populist
party, we are in a position to reshape the political landscape. Choosing a platform that appeals broadly
across all groups might permit the party to redefine what the parties stand for. By focusing on the
conservative principles that increasingly resonate with people across America, we can ensure that our
principles form the basis of the political discourse.

As a unifying concept, the best choice in our current situation is the program of returning power
to the people. This has a broad appeal on both sides of the aisle, and even steals some of the thunder of
the Democratic party. While they until recently considered themselves the party of the common people,
recent shifts have made this less accurate. Scaling back the power of the federal government and
returning power to the state and local level is also a profoundly conservative idea. By reframing the
political discussion, we will be pulling the rug out from under the Democratic party (and particularly the
media) by reframing issues in such a fundamental way that they must be addressed – and on the terms
we set.

This is a tremendously challenging prospect. In order to achieve it, we will need extensive
preparation and planning at all levels of the political system, as well as education of the public. That is
where this piece comes in.

This piece is intended to fulfill much the same role as The Federalist Papers – to explain the
complexities of a political plan in a way that is publicly accessible, yet provides a complete
understanding of the issues at hand. It is necessary for a work such as this to be painted in fairly broad
strokes – the day-to-day implementation of such a plan and the minutiae of policy are not important to
the average voter. It is also necessary to retain some ambiguity in the details, both to avoid distraction
in public debate as well as to provide flexibility in implementation and in the process of negotiating
passage of legislation through Congress.

The program presented will be challenging to implement, but provides not only a winning
political message, but a means of revitalizing and restoring our country.