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Chance of Reign - Asteroid
Chance of Reign - Asteroid
Reign uses pools of ten-sided dice (d10s), where results are determined by looking at how many
dice match each other. It is a bit like poker, where a roll might generate, say, a three-of-a-kind, a
pair, and some singles. Each of these matches is called a “set”, and the number of dice in the set
is called the “width” of the set. So, for example, if you roll ve dice and get 4, 4, 4, 2, 8, you have
one set of width three. For many rolls in Reign, the actual number being matched, called the
“height” of the set (4 in the previous example), doesn’t particularly matter. For other rolls, only the height matters. Still
others rely on both the height and the width. Usually only a single set in a roll matters, but there are some mechanics
that make use of the other sets as well. In this way, the rules in Reign pull a lot of meaning out of a single roll mechanic,
and the probabilities employed are interesting but not obvious. I’ve done some (very) minor probability documentation
on some other systems (an invented ve-suit card game (http://exalted.xi.co.nz/wiki/wiki.pl?Somori/DragonsGambit)
and the “excellencies” of Exalted (http://exalted.xi.co.nz/wiki/wiki.pl?ExcellencyMath), for example), but this is a bit
more tricky.
Simple calculations
The rst basic observation to make is that if you have a pool with more than 10 dice in it, you will always get at least one
set. If you have n+1 items that can only have n distinct values, at least one of those values will come up more than once.
Reign is well aware of this, and has rules to match. Consequently, pools only exceed 10 dice in very extraordinary
circumstances; however, these circumstances, though rare, do exist in the game, so this post will consider results with
up to 15 die pools.
Secondly, for any given roll, the odds of achieving exactly a speci c height are identical to achieving any other exact
height. That is, odds of rolling two tens using 5d10 are exactly the same as rolling two nines. This means that, were you
to build a chart where rolling height x means one thing and height y means something else, you have equal chances of
getting either result. Thus, if you want one result more than the others, you need to assign that result to more than one
height on the chart. Reign makes use of this idea at least once in the rules (as a hit-location table). More often, however,
height is used in rules where the height must be at least that number or higher. This makes reaching a certain height
harder as the number increases. A height of 10, for example, can only be reached if the dice conspired to built a set
containing 10s, but a height of nine is reached by those same sets plus sets containing nines, making it more likely. As a
result, when this post considers height, it will do so in the sense of reaching at least that height.
Tools
Because Reign deals with sets, the key technique in calculating probability is combinatorics
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinatorics). In particular, the concept of a combination
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combinations) is crucial. This looks scary, but you probably had to do some of this in high
school math class. The basic idea is that you have some number of items in your hand, and you have to select a certain
(smaller) number of those items. The combination calculation measures how many different ways you could make such
as selection, where order does not matter. For example, say you have four cubes in your hand, one red (r), one blue (b),
one green(g), one violet (v). You are instructed to select two cubes, where the order doesn’t matter. You can do this, it
turns out, six different ways: rb, rg, rv, bg, bv, gv. This would be notated as C(4,2), read “four choose two”. Generically,
C(n,k), or “n choose k“. You may also have vague memories of a permutation
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permutation), which is the same idea as combination except that order does matter. For
example, rb and br are considered the same combination, but different permutations. A permutation of two items from
a set of four is notated as P(4,2). Calculating both combinations and permutations makes use of the factorial
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factorial) operator. This is a fairly simple idea to wrap your head around. A number like “4
factorial”, notated “4!” just means to multiply 4 × 3 × 2 × 1. So n! just means n × n−1 × n−2 × … × 3 × 2 × 1. Combinations and
permutations are calculated as follows:
n n n! n!
P(n,r)
= = =
C ( )
k k k! (n − k)! (n − r)!
Fortunately, before you run screaming from this, most spreadsheets (and more advanced calculators) have functions for
combinatorics. Excel, for example, uses combin(n,k) (http://www.techonthenet.com/excel/formulas/combin.php) . It also
has permut(n,r) (http://www.techonthenet.com/excel/formulas/permut.php) , fact(n)
(http://www.techonthenet.com/excel/formulas/fact.php) and power(x,y)
(http://www.techonthenet.com/excel/formulas/power.php) , which are also useful. (One note here: Numbers lacks a
permut(n,r) method, which is extremely irritating.)
Stepping-stone calculations
Calculating odds of rolls like this is somewhat similar to calculating odds in poker
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability): you gure out how many possible ways there are to get a certain
result, and you divide by the total number of all results. This gives the percent chance of achieving that result.
Calculating the total possible results for a die roll is easy: start with a single die and gure out how many results this die
can yield. Unless you are using very strange dice, this will equal the number of faces on the die. For each die you add to
the pool, multiply by the number of ways that die can come up. So, if you roll a d20, a d12 and a d6, the total possible
outcomes are 20 × 12 × 6. Since Reign uses pools of n d10s, for any given roll the total possible outcomes are 10n.
Calculating the ways to get a given result is usually more dif cult. One very trivial thing to gure out: what are the odds
of all of the dice of a roll matching? In this case, all of the dice have to match, and there are ten possible values this
match can have. Thus, no matter how many dice are rolled, there are only ten possible rolls that result in all of them
matching. This means the probability is always 10 ÷ 10n = 1 ÷ 10n−1 = 101−n.
Another basic building block is also easy to calculate: when rolling n dice, what is the chance that you will get no set at
all? To gure this out, you need to know how many ways you can roll the dice such that none match any of the others.
So, try to actually construct such a roll, rolling one die at a time. The rst die could come up as anything, so it would
have 10 possible outcomes. The second die could be anything but the value of the rst, so would have nine possible
outcomes. The third could have eight possible values and so on. This sequence is sort of like 10! (that is 10 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6
× 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1) with the last few terms hacked off based on how many dice you had. If you had six dice, for example,
you’d need to hack off the 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 part. Note that this is 4! and that “hacking off” the terms would be done by taking
10! ÷ 4!. Note that this is exactly the formula of P(10,6), above. (This is not a coincidence, but rather exactly what
permutation is.) Knowing the chance of no match, you can take 1 minus this number to gure out the chance of at least
one match. The outcome looks like this (note that this matches with page 57 of the main Reign rulebook):
Dice Rolls without Possible rolls Chance of Chance of at
match no match least one match
Getting more detailed results requires more complexity. It happens that one of the tools needed to proceed requires
guring out the odds of rolling exactly one set with a given width, and all the rest of the dice not matching at all. By
itself, this number is more of an intermediate result, but a general formula for guring it out will help calculating more
important results. We’ll call this formula “exact” and we do it like this:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
11 10 1,080 56,1
12 10 1,170
13 10
14
15
You can do similar analysis of all the other lengths, and you end up with the table below. Each row in the table shows a
possible set combination that may be rolled, and the general formula to gure out how many possible outcomes will
generate that set combination. Naturally, not all combinations are possible for a given number of dice. Try as you might,
you’ll never get a width three set from two dice. Each cell in the table shows two different bits of information for given
result for a given number of dice. The rst is the numeric result of that number. The second, in bold, is the percentage
chance of that result when rolling that many dice. Because the table gets obnoxious as the number of dice increases,
this only shows results for two to 10 dice, but you should be able to use techniques shown above to extend it to more if
you need to. (I also wrote some really horrid Python code to double-check these numbers by counting the sets made by
every possible roll from 2 to 10 dice. It all matches.)
8x 10 × 10 810 32,400
C(n,8) × 0.00001% 0.000081% 0.0003240%
P(9,n−8)
9x 10 × 10 900
C(n,9) × 0.000001% 0.0000090%
P(9,n−9)
10x 10 × 10
C(n,10) × 0.0000001%
P(9,n−10)
7x,3x 10 × 10,800
C(n,7) × 0.0001080%
9×
C(n−7,3)
×
P(8,n−10)
8x,2x 10 × 4,050
C(n,8) × 0.0000405%
9×
C(n−8,2)
×
P(8,n−10)
5x,3x,2x 10 × 1,814,400
C(n,5) × 0.0181440%
9×
C(n−5,3)
×
8×
C(n−8,3)
×
P(7,n−10)
Calculating height
As mentioned above, calculating odds for height is only interesting when you need a roll of at least a given height. Such
calculation is surprisingly cumbersome, even if you mostly leave width out of it. In order for width to “count”, you must
have at least one match, and this is what makes things hard to gure. It is honestly easier just to write code to count all
possible outcomes, but if you want to gure it out do the following:
This looks like this, again with the total number of rolls that meet a given height, followed by the percentage chance:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10