DYNAMICS OF POPULATIONS

Dynamics of Populations is a course in the field of demography; it’s a Scientific study of human
populations. A Human Population (a group of individuals) is the object of the discipline if:
- It persists in time (not occasional, not temporary)
- It is under reproduction constraints (continuity is guaranteed by generational replacement)
- It is identified by territorial, political, legal, ethnical or religious features (one or more
characteristics must be defined in order to identify which group of individuals it is).
We do not study individuals (as sociology does), but Vital Events of human being and their mobility
(more closely related events), in fact we study Demography.
Human populations are in a state of continuous change, with Demographic Analysis we can study
the underling mechanisms of change  Population Dynamics.
The aim of the course is to provide methodological and interpretative tools for the comprehension
of the evolution of human population.
We’ll reply to the following questions:
- How does population changes?
- Why does population changes?
- The importance of population changes

CHANGE IN SIZE AND COMPOSITION OF A POPULATION

Who may be interested in the changes in size and composition of a population?
- Policymakers (at local, national, and international levels): in programming interventions
and resources
- Firms and Business: in programming marketing strategies and internal personnel and
resources
- Scientists in other disciplines (economists, sociologists, scientists in medicine…)
The most relevant events are:
- Births
- Deaths
- Movements
- Strictly related events to the above
Those events are determined by behaviours
Fertility  Births
Mortality  Deaths
Migration  Movements
Behaviours and Events acts as process
Population changes in size and composition, depend solely on three basic demographic process
that we exposed above (Fertility, mortality, migration)

CHANGES IN POPULATION SIZE

“Basic Demographic Equation” or “Demographic Balancing Equation” or “Demographic Accounting
Equation” is the equation which computes the number of individuals in a given population at a
give time.

Pt = Pt-1 + Bt-1, t – Dt-1, t + It-1, t – Et-1, t

Pt is the number of individuals in a given population at time t (in a given point in time)
Pt-1 is the number of individuals in a given population at time t-1 (a time unit before t)
Bt-1, t are the number of Births occurring in the population between t-1 and t
Dt-1, t are the number of Deaths occurring in the population between t-1 and t
It-1, t are the number of Immigrants occurring in the population between t-1 and t
Et-1, t are the number of Emigrants occurring in the population between t-1 and t
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE: Bt-1, t ; Dt-1, t ; It-1, t ; Et-1, t
NATURAL COMPONENT: (Bt-1, t - Dt-1, t)
- If Bt-1, t < Dt-1, t : The number of deaths exceeds the number of births during the time interval t-1 to t
meaning a negative natural increase or natural decrease
- If Bt-1, t > Dt-1, t : The number of births exceeds the number of deaths during the time interval t-1 to t
meaning a positive natural increase or natural increase
MIGRATORY COMPONENT OR NET MIGRATION: (It-1, t - Et-1, t)
- If It-1, t < Et-1, t : then more persons leave the population than enter the population during the time
interval t-1 to t, the quantity is known as negative net migration
- If It-1, t > Et-1, t : then more persons enter the population than leave the population during the time
interval t-1 to t, the quantity is known as positive net migration
ABSOLUTE CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE: (Pt - Pt-1 )

Pt - Pt-1 = (Bt-1, t - Dt-1, t) + (It-1, t - Et-1, t)

It is the result of reinforcing or offsetting effects of the natural and migratory components
POPULATION TURNOVER
In order to capture demographic dynamics and to understand if population is changing in its composition
even though the total number of people remains roughly the same, we calculate the Population turnover:

Bt-1, t + Dt-1, t + It-1, t + Et-1, t

POPULATION TURNOVER RATE

(Bt-1, t + Dt-1, t + It-1, t + Et-1, t) / Pt + Pt-1 /2

Which are the determinants of composition change?

(Bt-1, t + Dt-1, t ) / (Bt-1, t + Dt-1, t + It-1, t + Et-1, t)

If close to 1, the change is caused almost exclusively by natural events.

(It-1, t + Et-1, t) / (Bt-1, t + Dt-1, t + It-1, t + Et-1, t)

If close to 1, the change is caused almost exclusively by migration.

DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCING EQUATION

This is the equation that gives us the value of the population in a country at time t.

Pt = Pt-1 + Bt-1, t - Dt-1, t + It-1, t - Et-1, t

by moving the “population at time t-1 indicator” on the left side of the equation, we’ll be able to
compute the absolute change in population size (Natural Component + Net Migration).
 LEXIS CHART
Introduced by the German mathematician Wilhelm Lexis in 1875; we’ll use the modern version of
Roland Pressant who introduced it in the 1950s.
Purposes of this Model:
- Representing the lives of the individuals belonging to the population and the events in their
lives through the use of two-time dimension.
- Classification (grouping events and individuals) with the final purpose of measuring
behaviours
The Lexis chart is the very basic tool in demography, it is a Cartesian type of diagram where the
Horizontal axis represents “Time (absolute time), which is the date of occurrence” and the Vertical
axis represents “Age (relative time), the time elapsed between the date of an event in question
and an initial event (named event of origin)”. A life is represented with a line (Life-line).

A life-line is a diagonal line which starts from the x-axis; it runs from the bottom left to the top
right sloping 45°.
First, we pass from continuous to discrete variables;
- Time: (Calendar time, years)
- Age: there are 4 criteria:
1. Age in complete years (or age at last birthday): you count how many birthdays has
been celebrated
2. Individual year of age: the year of life the person entered to
3. Age reached during the year: is the difference between the year of observation and the
year of birth
4. rounded age to the nearer birthday
Examples: George born on September 1, 2010; age measured on October 12, 2022
1. Age In complete years: 12 Years
2. Individual year of age: 13 Years
3. Age reached during the Year: 12 Years
4. Rounded age to the nearer birthday: 12 Years
In current statistics, by convention, the criterion of completed years is applied, differently it was in
the past; Each person might answer the question “how old are you?” in different ways.

- Cohort: Group of people, who have experienced the same kind of event during the same
unit of time (usually a year)
- Birth cohort: Group of people born in the same year
There are two different approaches to measure the components of population change.
- Period Approach: when the reference is a calendar time period
- Cohort approach: when the reference is a birth cohort it is based on the experience of a
specific group of people born during a specific calendar period (birth cohort).