Ordnance & Munitions Forecast

ARCHIVED REPORT
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Merlin Guided Anti-Armor Projectile

- Archived 10/97
10 Year Unit Production Forecast

Outlook Units
1996-2005

 Due to no sales interest, development of program terminated in 15

September of 1996 10 Minimal Production

 British Aerospace looking for international funding to complete 5
Forecasted
development
0


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Components (especially guidance) of Merlin could find use in 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Years
other weapons

Orientation
Description. A guided mortar projectile.
Sponsor. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence,
Ordnance Board through the Ministry of Defence Army
Department provided some of the development funding
for Merlin; to date, the remainder of the development
funding is being provided by the contractor. Following its
termination in September of 1996, British Aerospace is
looking for international funding to complete the
development of the Merlin.
Contractors. The Merlin was being developed and would
have been manufactured by British Aerospace plc,
Dynamics Division; Stevenage, Hertfordshire, United
Kingdom. The production of Merlin would have taken
place at Lostock. Royal Ordnance acts as a subcontractor.
Licensees. Alliant Techsystems has the marketing and
manufacturing license for Merlin in the United States of
America. More recently, Rockwell International entered
the a projected version of the Merlin for the United States
Army's Precision Guided Mortar Munition program.
Status. Before British Aerospace termionated the
program in September of 1996, the Merlin program was in
full-scale engineering development with the contractor's
and operational firing trials phase ongoing; development
of the basic Merlin as well as a 120 millimeter version
(originally for the United States Army's Precision Guided
Mortar Munition program), was being continued.
Total Produced. As of January 1, 1996, a total of 124
Merlin projectiles had been manufactured.
Application. Designed for use by infantry units, the
Merlin guided mortar projectile was to be used for the
long range destruction of tanks and other armored vehicles
in all types of weather in day or night by the use of 81
millimeter mortars.
Price Range. In late 1989, British Aerospace projected
the unit price for the Merlin in then equivalent United
States dollars at $12,400. The unit price for serially
produced Merlin rounds is now projected by us as being
$17,808 in equivalent 1996 United States dollars.

October 1996
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Technical Data
Launch/Carrier Vehicle. Any 81 millimeter mortar; 82 millimeter mortars can also fire Merlin with the aid of an
obturator ring.
Dimensions. The following data is for the latest prototype Merlin munitions.
SI units US units
Munition diameter 81 millimeters 3.19 inches
Munition length 90.0 centimeters 35.43 inches
Munition weight 6.0 kilograms 13.2 pounds
Performance. The armor perforation figure is the result of a standardized formula for High Explosive Anti-Tank
warheads; since the Merlin is a top attack weapon, its performance should be more than adequate against any known tank
for many years.
Maximum range 4,000 meters 4,374.4 yards
Armor perforation 51.0 centimeters 20.1 inches

Warhead. Merlin uses a high explosive shaped charge
(High Explosive Anti-Tank) warhead of advanced design.
Control & Guidance. Six fins are deployed as the
projectile leaves the tube; these fins provide the initial
aerodynamic stabilization of the projectile. Two canard
control surfaces are deployed shortly after the active
millimeter wave seeker is activated at the top of the
projectile's trajectory. These canard control surfaces are
activated in the appropriate manner by signals from the
millimeter wave guidance system and the associated
control electronics. Electrical actuators are used to activate
the aerodynamic control surfaces.

Variants/Upgrades
Variants. No variants of Merlin have been developed at
this time. However, as a result of the United States Army's
evaluations of several guided mortar round options
conducted under the Precision Guided Mortar Munition
program, British Aerospace, Alliant Techsystems and
Rockwell International were developing a 120 millimeter
version of the Merlin projectile fitted with the original
millimeter wave guidance system of the Merlin integrated
with the semi-active laser guidance system and lethal
mechanism of the AGM-114 HELLFIRE missile. Further
details are found in the relevant report in this tab.
Modernization and Retrofit Overview. Not applicable
as the Merlin has yet to enter production.

Program Review
Background. For some time, the infantry arm of the Merlin, leaving British Aerospace to continue to fund the
British Army has been considered deficient in long range program on a private basis. As of mid 1996, the
anti-armor capability. In 1979, the Ministry of Defence developmental test program is on schedule with the test
began the study of a smart mortar projectile to fill this firings continuing. Although as of this writing the Ministry
need. In September of 1981, British Aerospace, which had of Defence is still not funding the Merlin program, it is
been following the official feasibility program, began still cooperating and supporting the development program
funding the internal development of the new guided through the British Army.
mortar projectile. In April of 1983, a General Staff Target
Description. The Merlin is supplied and stored as any
for a terminally guided mortar projectile was issued under
other type of mortar round; the shelf life is stated by the
the term MORAT. This coincided with an agreement
contractor to be at least ten years. The diameter of the
made between British Aerospace and the Ministry of
projectile is 81 millimeters (3.1 inches); it can be fired
Defence for the equal sharing of funding to complete the
from any Western pattern 81 millimeter mortar. In
project definition phase as well as to fund the pre-
addition, the Merlin projectile can be fired from Russian
development phase. This later phase was completed in
pattern 82 millimeter mortars by the addition of a simple
December of 1984. By that time, the MORAT program
obturating ring. The Merlin can be fired as rapidly as any
had become known by the name Merlin. Due to financial
other type of mortar round, allowing for fires against
considerations, the Ministry of Defence did not enter into a
massed formations of armor.
contract for the full scale engineering development of

October 1996
Ordnance & Munitions Forecast Merlin Guided Anti-Armor Projectile, Page 3

The Merlin has an appearance similar to any other mortar
projectile, albeit longer. The forward portion of the
projectile contains the millimeter wave guidance and
control components including the canard control surfaces.
The middle of the projectile houses the electronics,
batteries and shaped charge warhead to the rear. The rear
portion of the projectile mounts the stabilizing fins and
contains the safe/arm mechanism.
After the projectile is fired, six spring-out fins at the rear
of the projectile stabilize it during the initial stages of
flight. At the top of the trajectory, the millimeter wave
sensor is switched on. From a "normal" range the footprint
of search is 90,000 square meters (107,636.5 square
yards). Once a target is acquired, the appropriate guidance
and control inputs are generated and the projectile homes
in on the target, striking it on the top. Merlin is optimized
to hit moving targets.
The Merlin uses a chemical (High Explosive Anti-Tank)
warhead to defeat armor. The application of our
standardized formula for chemical warheads of this type
yields a perforation figure of 51.0 centimeters (20.1
inches), more than sufficient to perforate the top armor of
any tank presently in service or projected. Even if the tank
is fitted with explosive reactive armor on top, the
detonation of the Merlin projectile will almost certainly
destroy or severely disrupt the tank's fire control optics,
rendering it almost impotent.
Merlin Program Terminated. Even though the United
Kingdom Ministry of Defence supported a portion of the
development of the Merlin, the British Army never made
a commitment to procure the guided mortar round. In
addition, despite a good deal of interest from the United
States of America (especially the Marine Corps), when the
time came for the selection of a guided mortar round, the
Merlin fell by the wayside in favor of competing
technology. The final blow was probably the fact that the
Merlin was deleted from the British Army’s Long Term
Costs program in mid-1996. The announcement that the
Merlin program would be terminated came in September
of 1996; the program reportedly cost British Aerospace
about a hundred million pounds (155 million United States
dollars). At the time of the announcement, our research
into the program revealed that British Aerospace was
engaged in an effort to find funding to complete the
development of the Merlin, which is about 95% complete.

Funding
Other than the fact that the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence provided some of the development funding for Merlin
and that the remainder of the development funding is being provided by the contractor, no information is available.
In the United States of America, under the Foreign Comparative Testing program, the United States Army evaluated
guided mortar technology in its Precision Guided Mortar Munition program; a half million dollars was authorized in the
Fiscal 1994 defense budget for this effort. For a complete description of the Merlin’s role in this program, we refer the
reader to the Mortar Ammunition (United States) report in this tab.

Recent Contracts
No information is available as contractual information is not released.

Timetable
This timetable is for the Merlin program only; it does not relate in any manner to the Strix or any other guided mortar
projectile program.
Early 1979 Concept exploration and initial development
Sept 1981 British Aerospace began the private development of the MORAT concept
Apr 1983 General Staff Target for a guided mortar projectile issued; initial funding agreement
between British Aerospace and Ministry of Defence made
Dec 1984 Concept development and pre-development phase completed, Ministry of Defence funding
terminated
Early 1985 Full scale engineering development phase began with private funding
1985-1990 Full scale engineering development/test firing phase ongoing
1994 Comparative testing in the United States
Oct 1994 Modified version of Merlin accepted for further development in the United States

October 1996
Merlin Guided Anti-Armor Projectile, Page 4 Ordnance & Munitions Forecast

Sept 1996 Development of Merlin terminated by contractor

Worldwide Distribution
Export Potential. British Aerospace had developed an estimate that 30 to 40 percent of the 62,000-odd 81 millimeter
mortars in the world would be candidates for the Merlin. The closest competition comes from the Swedish Strix program,
which is a 120 millimeter system which uses infrared guidance. Because of the fact that the Merlin uses the much more
sophisticated millimeter wave guidance, by the late-nineties, British Aerospace expected that Merlin would be the
standard by which all guided mortar projectiles are judged. Now that the program has been terminated, the point is moot.
Countries. United Kingdom (prototypes with the contractor)

Forecast Rationale
Now that the Merlin program has been terminated by the
contractor British Aerospace, no additional production is
forecast. However, our research related to the potential for
guided mortar projectiles in general is still bullish; even
so, the chances of an 81 millimeter guided mortar
projectile becoming available are now a somewhat more
remote.
Our latest review of the Merlin program prompts us to
zero the forecast production of this munition. However,
the contractor British Aerospace is striving to find funding
on the international market to complete the development
of the Merlin, which is about 95% complete. There is also
one report circulating that British Aerospace is offering the
complete technical data package for sale although this can
not be confirmed as of the time of this research. Therefore,
we will continue to monitor this still potentially important
program in the closest manner, and update this report on
an interim basis if warranted.

Ten-Year Outlook
ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR PRODUCTION

High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative

Level Level
Total
Munition through 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 96-05
BRITISH AEROSPACE/ARMY WEAPONS
MERLIN (a) 124 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
Total Production 124 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6

a Production through 1996 is for the initial pre-prototype test rounds, component integration test
rounds, unguided test rounds, guided test rounds, all up test rounds and contractor/operational test
rounds.

MERLIN IN LAUNCH CONDITION (6kg)

Source: Forecast International

October 1996
Ordnance & Munitions Forecast Merlin Guided Anti-Armor Projectile, Page 5

MERLIN IN HOMING CONDITION

October 1996