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Understanding Epidemiological Transition in India - 4
Understanding Epidemiological Transition in India - 4
Epidemiological Transition in India
Suryakant Yadav1 and Prof P. Arokiasamy2
Introduction
The demographic trends in India are presently passing through the last stage of demographic
transition. Alongside, the country is also experiencing epidemiological transition (Gowariker
1994 and James 2011). Combined effect of increased morbidity and mortality levels and better
survivorship are affecting the shape of age patterns of morbidity and mortality. In general, the
demographic and epidemiological transition in developed and in developing countries have
resulted in a more skewed distribution and affected the age patterns of morbidity and mortality
(Pool and Wong 2006).
The progress in demographic and epidemiological transition has led the country to transit from
the high mortality to medium mortality condition. During early period of 1970s and 1980s, the
morbidity pattern in India was overwhelmed with infectious diseases and in later period of
1990s and 2000s, the morbidity pattern was overwhelmed with the burden of degenerative
diseases. The remarkable increase in the prevalence of degenerative diseases with rise in the
life expectancy indicates the process of expansion of morbidity. In parallel to this, continuous
decline in the mortality rates indicates the process of compression of mortality. India and states
are experiencing rapid changes in the morbidity and mortality levels. The process of
compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity revolves around the dynamics of the age
pattern of morbidity and mortality which are inter‐related. And therefore, there is perceptible
progress in the compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity with the structural
changes in the age pattern of morbidity and mortality.
Inevitably, the age pattern of morbidity and mortality rates shapes itself from early U‐shape to
J‐shape. Trends in mortality over time show a steady decline in infant and child mortality rates
across the states of India. Adult mortality has also declined steadily and significantly. United
Nations (2011) estimates show a decline of 24 percent (per 1000 populations) in the adult
mortality during 1990 to 2007. The decline in the adult mortality is more in recent years and
therefore, both females and males show remarkable increase in the life expectancy in the last
three and more decades. The life expectancy at birth for females increased from 49 years in
1970‐75 to 64.2 years in 2002‐2006; and for males, it has increased from 50.5 years in 1970‐75
to 62.6 years in 2002‐2006. Alongside, other mortality levels has also declined and prominently
after 1990’s.
The biological boundaries of human life span seem ever expanding (Oeppen and Vaupel 2002),
hence linear increase in life expectancy is globally acknowledged. Similar to developed nations,
developing nations are experiencing linear increase in the life expectancy at birth. India records
linear increase in life expectancy of 15 and 12 years for females and males, respectively, during
1 Presenting Author: Email: suryakant11@gmail.com
2 Email: parokiasamy@yahoo.co.uk
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the last three decades (Registrar General 2009a). This may seem exceptional with no less
remarkable improvement than developed countries. The steady increase in life expectancy is
associated with changing age pattern of morbidity and mortality and thus, manifesting different
phases of demographic and epidemiological transition (Vallin and Mesle 2004). The remarkable
rise in life expectancy has sparked the process of compression and (or) decompression of
morbidity and (or) mortality.
Inherently, different states of India are in different stages of demographic transition and passes
through different levels of morbidity and mortality rates. The states of Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are nearly two decades ahead in demographic
transition than other populated states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar
Pradesh. It is also evident from the SRS (1996‐2001) that the life expectancy at birth of the
south Indian states has averaged about 66.3 years compared to 59.6 years in four north‐Indian
states. In general, the demographically advanced states than demographically less advances
states are supposed to be leading in demographic and epidemiological transition.
Researchers have discussed the morbidity and mortality conditions in past. In India, during the
19th century researchers revealed that about 80 percent of India was unprotected against small
pox and fatality due to them was approximately 25‐30 percent in the vulnerable population.
Later on, in the 20th century, the mortality rates declined continuously since 1950s and
remained lower in recent decades. In parallel to this, the decline in deaths due to Infectious
diseases was apparent due to vaccination programmes during 1969‐95. Unlike developed
nations, the infectious diseases are not replaced by chronic diseases in India. The country is
facing dual burden of diseases, that is, high prevalence rate of communicable diseases among
infant and adolescent ages and high prevalence of noncommunicable diseases among the older
population. Of the total share of burden one third is accounted by communicable and rest is
accounted by noncommunicable diseases in recent decades (Banthia and Dyson 1999, Visaria
2004, James 2011). The percentage contribution of total deaths due to infectious diseases has
declined from 47.7 in 1969‐71 to 22.1 in 1994‐95. Correspondingly, burden due to
noncommunicable diseases has increased from 36 percent to 55 percent. Currently, the
noncommunicable diseases were responsible for 42 percent of total deaths and communicable
diseases were responsible for 38 percent of deaths (Registrar General 2009b).
Theoretical Background
Omran (1971) formulated an epidemiological transition theory. The theory describes the
changing causes of death pattern associated with the historical decline in mortality. The three
stages defined are: 1) The Age of Pestilence and Famine with life expectancy of 20 to 40 years,
2) The Age of Receding Pandemics with life expectancy of 50 years and 3) The Age of
Degenerative and Man‐Made Diseases with life expectancy nearly 70 years. Over the course of
demographic and epidemiological transition, many developed countries have undergone the
process of rectangularization of survival curve and the different stages and combination of
compression and (or) decompression of morbidity and (or) mortality.
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Various studies have tried to examine the process of mortality compression in developed
countries in relation to advances in demographic and epidemiological transition. Robine (2001)
based on these findings, explored the stages of epidemiological transition and redefined the
stages of epidemiological transition exploring the measure of compression of mortality for
France. Nusselder and Mackenbach (1996) worked on Netherland (1980‐84) data to examine
the rectangularization of survival curve and revealed that is mainly due to increase in mortality
of the oldest of old. Paccaud et al. (1998) found reduction in standard deviation as a prominent
measure to conclude compression of mortality for Switzerland (1969‐94) data. Rothenberg et al.
(1991) worked on United States (1962‐84) data and found that the increase in average age at
death was accompanied by an increase in standard deviation and thus they labeled this as
expansion of mortality.
Olshansky and Ault (1986) proposed a fourth stage as The Age of Delayed Degenerative
Diseases with life expectancy nearly around 80 years. It is a stage of demographic transition in
which mortality fell because the onset of chronic diseases was delayed to older ages, that is,
“delayed degenerative diseases”. In the recent decade, the causes of death were essentially
degenerative‐cardiovascular diseases and cancers. In the light of above observations the new
age pattern corresponds to fourth stage proposed by Olshansky and Ault (1986) and Robine
(2001) and labeled as Age of the Conquest of the Extent of Life. In this phase, mortality due to
cardiovascular disease and accidents has decreased but the occurrence of non‐fatal diseases,
such as dementia and arthritis, has increased.
Need of the study
Both from theoretical and methodological context, the foregoing review suggest the need for
investigating the complex age patterns of mortality and morbidity in India and states. India’s
age pattern of mortality has been transforming considerably and significantly towards a
flattening curve with the ongoing demographic transition. Morbidity level has been rising for
the older age group and to a considerable extent among the younger age group. The process of
mortality and morbidity compression or decompression revolves around the dynamics of
changing age pattern of mortality and morbidity and the heterogeneity associated with
changes. In this context, it is critical to understand the ongoing course of mortality, morbidity
and longevity convergence patterns to understand future course of transition.
The possible transition or shifts in epidemiological transition is concomitant with either
compression and (or) decompression of morbidity and (or) morbidity, which is majorly driven
by the changing age pattern of mortality and morbidity. Currently, India and its states are in the
regime of declining mortality rates and increasing morbidity rates. Under these conditions, the
country experiences unprecedented amalgamation of compression and (or) decompression of
mortality and (or) morbidity and therefore, shift in the epidemiological transition is plausible.
In this paper, we briefed about the 1) compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity. As
India and states experiences unique amalgamation of above two: 2) We reviewed a
fundamental questions: Of the two, compression of mortality or expansion of morbidity, which
is more responsible for shift in the epidemiological transition.
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Data and Methods
Multiple sources of data have been used for analytical outcomes. Main inputs are age specific
death rates provided by SRS (1970‐2007), and unit level NSS data (1986‐87, 1995‐96 and 2004)
by sex and residence. New life tables were constructed using age specific death rates for India
and 12 bigger states. The new life tables are calculated more appropriately using advanced
methodology adopted by MortPak (United Nations 1988). The nax values for the life tables are
very close to 2.5, which affirms the uniform distribution of deaths in the age groups and
therefore, dx columns of the life tables were broken into single years (Seigel and Swanson
2004). Further, the obtained distribution of death smoothed between age 10 and 110 was
considered for the analyses and henceforth, is referred as distribution of age at death (Kostaki
and Panousis 2001, Ibrahim 2008, Arias et al. 2010, Wilmoth and Horiuchi 1998, Edwards and
Tuljapurkar 2005). Truncated distribution of age at death was considered to eliminate the effect
of infant and adolescent ages as the process of compression and (or) decompression of
morbidity and (or) mortality is manifested in senescent ages. Kannisto (2000) suggested C‐
family method; an ideal measure to measure the process of compression of mortality in any
mortality conditions. Specifically, of all the member of C‐family, C50 is the most preferred
because it captures 50 percent of the deaths in shortest age interval and thus would be easy for
interpretation and observe the increase or decrease in the age interval. Theoretically and
empirically, C‐family can work well for developing countries and we found that in India and
states C50 method is able to distinguish the level of compression of mortality per se their
stages of demographic and epidemiological transition.
The prevalence rate of diseases were calculated using NSS unit level data (1986/87, 1995/96
and 2004) (WHO 1957). Using the prevalence rates, Disease Free Life Expectancy (DFLE) was
constructed and health ratio‐ratio of disease free life expectancy to life expectancy at age x‐
was used to examine the expansion of morbidity for India and states (Doblhammer and Kytir
2001). We selected 12 bigger states for analyses and understanding their progress in
demographic and epidemiological transition. The selected demographically advanced states
considered are Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu,
Haryana and demographically less advanced states considered are Assam, Madhya Pradesh,
Odisha and Uttar Pradesh.
To understand the progress in epidemiological transitions both the process of compression of
mortality and expansion of morbidity were examined collaterally by categories of population,
that is, rural‐urban and female‐male. Especially, the pursuit and variants among the states in
terms of compression and expansion of morbidity revealed the explicit understanding of
ongoing epidemiological transition.
Results and Discussion
Growing epidemiological research indicates that most of the developed nations have
experienced the process of compression of morbidity and mortality during the later stage of
demographic and epidemiological transition. Exploring the historical trends in compression and
(or) decompression of morbidity and (or) mortality of developed nation we found most the
countries have experienced the process of compression of mortality in intervals. General
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consensus is that compression of mortality seems to be universal than decompression of
mortality. Resembling, the process of compression of morbidity seems to be pronounced than
expansion of morbidity. Nevertheless, researchers have addressed the process of
decompression of mortality and expansion morbidity (Rothenberg et al. 1991, Gruenberg 1977,
Doblhammer and Kytir 2001, Cheung et al. 2005).
Among the developing nations and particularly in India, the progress in demographic and
epidemiological transition is rapid and apparent. The life expectancy at birth of Indian females
and males, respectively, increased to 67.7 and 64.6, respectively, in 2006‐10. The life
expectancy at birth among rural females of Kerala has rose to 77.2 years in 2006‐10. The linear
increase in life expectancy at birth (for e0 r2=0.9855 for females and r2=0.9868 for males during
the period 1970‐2010) is remarkable and has triggered the existing concept of no limit to life
expectancy among developing nations as well. Other components of life tables have undergone
significant changes. The distribution of life table deaths tends to be leptokurtic and unimodal
over the time period.
As a consequence of rapid demographic changes during 1970‐2007, structural change in the
age pattern of morbidity and mortality is seen. One of the resultant is that the deaths have
been shifting towards older ages; majorly from ‘old‐old’ to ‘oldest old’, and tending to be
concentrated in oldest old ages, resulting in a shift in the distribution of age at death and a rise
in the distribution of age at death. Consequently, the deaths have been clustering in narrower
age interval during the recent decades compared to earlier decades. The reduction in the
shortest age interval of death is also underpinned by the shrinking variance in age at death as
experienced by developed nations (Wilmoth and Horiuchi 1998 and 1999, Gruenberg 1977,
Doblhammer and Kytir 2001, Edward and Tuljapurkar 2005, Howse 2006).
During the past more than three decades, the transformation in the distribution of age at death
is dramatic. The following table 1 gives the trends in 25th and 75th percentile and modal age at
death of the distribution in age at death. The rise in the modal age at death was almost linear.
Accordingly, the 25th and 75th percentile of the distribution of age at death has risen linearly.
The linear characteristic of life expectancy at birth in concordance with trends in life expectancy
at birth among the developed nations is evident for other measures viz. modal age at death and
25th and 75th percentile of the distribution of age at death. The same is found true for India.
Among females, the 25th percentile of the distribution of age at death increased from age 55 in
1970‐74 to age 65 in 2003‐07. Among males, the 25th percentile of the distribution of age at
death increased from age 55 in 1970‐74 to age 61 in 2003‐07. The reduction in adult deaths is
primarily responsible for rise in the 25th percentile of distribution of age at death. Among
females than males, greater rise in modal age at death indicates greater reduction in adult
mortality. However, the 75th percentile of the distribution of age at death rises as the life
expectancy in higher ages still lags behind those of developed nations. Among females, the 75th
percentile of the distribution of age at death increased from age 77 to age 84 and among males,
the 75th percentile of the distribution of age at death increased from age 75 to age 80. In
parallel to this, among females, the modal age at death increased from age 73 to age 78 and
among males, the modal age at death increased from age 70 to age 75. The trends in these
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three measures clearly indicate outward movement of distribution of age at death to a greater
extent for females than males.
It is seen that the three measures (25th, 75th percentile and modal age at death of distribution
of age at death), has shifted towards higher ages by more or less equal amount. This clearly
indicates the shift in the distribution of age at death. Nevertheless, for both females and males,
the rise in the 25th percentile is greater than increase in the modal age at death and 75th
percentile of the distribution of age at death. As a consequence of these progresses, the
distribution of age at death becomes bell shaped and looks similar to a left skewed normal
distribution. The linear increase in the modal age at death of distribution of age at death
signifies the rectangularization of the survival curve. These transformations undoubtedly
indicate the progress in compression of mortality (Nusselder and Mackenbach 1996, Cheung et
al. 2005, Canudas‐Romo 2008). By gender, females are leading than males in the linear increase
of 25th and 75th percentile and modal age at death. It is clear that the process of compression of
mortality initiated due to reduction of mortality rates among the adult than older ages and
therefore, reduction in premature mortality is playing a significant role for the advances in the
process of compression of mortality witnessed in the senescent ages.
Table 1: 25th and 75th Percent of Death and Modal Age at Death (M*) in the Distribution of
Death for Male and Female, India, 1970‐2007
Female Male
Modal
Year
25% of 75% of Modal Age 25% of 75% of Age at
Deaths Deaths at Death Deaths Deaths Death
1970‐1974 55 77 73 55 75 70
1974‐1978 56 77 73 55 75 70
1979‐1983 59 79 74 57 77 72
1984‐1988 60 80 74 57 77 72
1989‐1993 61 80 75 58 78 73
1994‐1998 62 82 76 59 79 73
1999‐2003 64 83 76 59 79 74
2003‐2007 65 84 78 61 80 75
Source: Author’s calculation from SRS 1970‐2007
In parallel to this, the morbidity prevalence rate among the aged population has increased and
remarkably for noncommunicable diseases and cardiovascular diseases. The increased
prevalence of diseases has immensely affected the pace of epidemiological transition. Analyses
of NSS morbidity data for the three time periods (1986‐87, 1995‐96 and 2004) revealed the
increased prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases. Among females, the prevalence
rate of chronic noncommunicable diseases increased from 51 in 1986‐87 to 240.2 in 2004 and
among males, it increased from 67 in 1986‐87 to 236 in 2004. The following table 2 gives the
prevalence rate of chronic noncommunicable diseases among the aged population for the three
time periods.
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Table 2: Prevalence Rate of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases among the Aged Population,
Female and Male, India, 1986‐87, 1995‐96 and 2004
The rapid fall in mortality rates and concurrent remarkable rise in the prevalence rate of
chronic noncommunicable diseases has led to a different demographic scenario not seen in
general among the developed nations. The mortality rates are continuously falling, which is not
the case with the trends in prevalence rates of noncommunicable diseases. The trends in
prevalence rate of chronic noncommunicable diseases have been increasing manifold. For
communicable diseases, the trends have remained more or less unchanged. The significant
reduction in birth rate and death rate has led to progress in the later stages of demographic
transition however remarkable rise in the chronic noncommunicable diseases ascertained the
middle stage of epidemiological transition. The progress in both demographic and
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epidemiological transition is simultaneous. However, during the short span of 1970‐2007, they
behaved differently whatsoever observed among the developed nations. Accordingly, the
realization of the two simultaneous processes made India unique with reference to changing
age pattern of mortality and morbidity ultimately leading to the process of compression of
mortality but expansion of morbidity.
Correspondence between Compression of Mortality and Expansion of Morbidity
Compression of Mortality and Expansion of Morbidity
India being amidst the epidemiological transition is accelerated by the transformation in the
age pattern of morbidity and mortality. As a result of these transformations, the process of
compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity is seen strongly during the last two
decades than earlier decades. Considering, the last two decades, the concentration of death
shrunk to narrower age interval; ascertained a stronger compression of mortality than earlier
period. The C50, among urban females and males, respectively, shrunk from wider age interval
20 years, respectively, in 1984‐1988 to 16 years and 18 years, respectively, in 2003‐2007. The
SD (M+) remained more or less unchanged (not shown here). Declining trends in C50 indicates
the narrowing age interval of age at death, however stagnant trends in SD (M+) indicates that a
significant heterogeneity exist in older ages. This indicates a long way to achieve the level of
compression of mortality found among the developed nations. In sum, the process of
compression of mortality has been in progress in India and prominent among urban females
than other categories of the population (table 3a and 3b: India).
In concordance with the progress in compression of mortality, the process of expansion of
morbidity is seen. The major reason for this is increased prevalence rate of chronic
noncommunicable diseases compared to rest categories of diseases. Together, the linear
increase in life expectancy in older ages impels the process of expansion of morbidity. For India,
among urban females and males, respectively, the health ratio at age 60 declined from 76% and
75%, respectively, in 1986/87 to 46% and 50%, respectively, in 2004. By gender, females than
males were in living in ill health in recent decades, irrespective of residence. The increase in the
level of morbidity and declining trends in the health ratio ascertains the process of expansion of
morbidity has been in the process.
The progress in both the processes of compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity has
been seen stronger from mid 1990s. The C50 values remained lower during recent decades
(1990s and 2000s) and showed stronger compression of mortality with some stagnancy than
earlier decades. Against the trends in C50 values, the health ratio showed steep decline during
1995/96‐2004 and therefore, seems to be playing dominant role in the progress in
epidemiological transition. Because the transition in the age pattern of morbidity and mortality
is rapid during the last two decades and per se reveal evidences of the compression of mortality
but expansion of morbidity. Thus, population exhibited rapid progress and shift in
epidemiological transition because of remarkable progress in the expansion of morbidity but
modest progress in compression of mortality during the last two decades, especially after mid
1990s. By the categories of the population, the shift in the epidemiological transition is much
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more rapid and apparent for urban females than other categories of population during the last
two decade.
Inter‐State Variation
In India and states, during the phase of high mortality and high morbidity in the 1970s and
1980s, the life span was not longer and burdened with severe diseases, spread over the ages.
During the phase of high mortality and high morbidity, the age pattern of morbidity was
burdened with infectious and parasitic diseases and the deaths were spread over the ages and
thus, concentrated in wider age interval of death. Over the course of epidemiological transition,
the infectious and parasitic diseases are reduced and degenerative diseases are dominant in
recent decades. Alongside, the level of mortality falls. The phenomenon is more pronounced
among the demographically developed states than demographically less developed states. Also,
among the demographically advanced states, the transformation in the age patterns of
morbidity and mortality has demonstrated high morbidity prevalence and high concentration of
deaths in older ages in recent decades. The state analyses better revealed the progress in
epidemiological transition.
Tables 3a (urban population) and 3b (rural population) give the comparative results of C50 and
health ratio by categories of the population for adjacent time periods. In general, the trends in
C50 values and health ratios indicate a coherent pattern. All the twelve selected states have
experienced greater compression of mortality but expansion of morbidity profoundly after mid
1990s. Among the selected states, the demographically advanced state such as Kerala has
shown progress in compression of mortality to a greater extent. C50 among urban females and
males, respectively, squeezed from 16 and 21 years, respectively, in 1984‐88 and to 13 and 15
years, respectively, in 2003‐2005 which are close to USA (C50 is 15.7 for females and 17.7 years
for males in 1991‐95). Narrower C50 values of females than males indicate that females have
experienced greater compression of mortality. Vis‐à‐vis the process of expansion of morbidity
in Kerala is remarkable due to the highest prevalence rate of chronic noncommunicable
diseases. By sex, females exhibited more decline in the health ratio than males which was
prominent in later period of 1995/96‐2004 compared to earlier time period of 1986/87‐
1995/96. For urban females of Kerala, the health ratio at age 60 declined from 73% in 1995/96
to 25% in 2004. Greater decline in the health ratio corroborates the expansion of morbidity.
Thus, the urban female population of Kerala is living longer duration of poor health with
increase in life expectancy. Other demographically advanced states have shown compression of
mortality and expansion of morbidity, however, to a lesser extent than Kerala. Among the
demographically less advanced states viz. Uttar Pradesh and Odisha has shown compression
but not as strongly as demonstrated for Kerala and other advanced states. The expansion of
morbidity is also modest. For urban females of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha, respectively, the C50
values declined from 25 years and 19 years, respectively, in 1984‐88 to 18 years and 17 years,
respectively, in 2003‐2007. In parallel to this, for urban females of Uttar Pradesh and Odisha,
respectively, the health ratio declined from 72% and 82%, respectively, in 1995/96, to 59% and
70%, respectively, in 2004.
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The comparative presentation of C50 and health ratio clearly depicts that demographically
advanced states are ahead than demographically less advanced states with reference to
demographic and epidemiological transition. The C50 has become narrower from mid 1990s
and throughout the time period has remained narrower than demographically less advanced
states. Undoubtedly, C50 values were narrower for demographically advanced states since the
phase of high mortality conditions but much wider for demographically less advanced states.
And therefore, over the time period, the reduction in the length of C50 was less prominent for
demographically advanced states compared to demographically less advanced states. It is
noteworthy that among the urban population, demographically less advanced states are
approaching the pattern depicting in demographically advanced states. This indicates that the
demographically less advanced states were not lagging far behind rather they are also
advancing towards later stage of demographic and epidemiological transition and with greater
pace and reduced inter‐state variation.
With the advances in expansion of morbidity demographically advanced states are ahead than
less advanced states. However, with reference to trends in health ratio, demographically
advanced states differ from demographically less advanced states at large in recent decades.
Till mid of 1990s, the health ratio of the states were closer to each other and thereafter states
showed divergence in trends in health ratio. The prominent reasons were fall in mortality rates
leading to higher life expectancy in older ages but remarkable rise in the prevalence rate of
chronic noncommunicable diseases among the advanced states than less advanced states.
Therefore, the inter‐state variation among the states has increased overtime and to a greater
extent among urban females. This clearly signifies that all the states have not been experiencing
similar transition with reference to epidemiological transition, despite the fact that the states
have shown more or less similar progress in the process of compression of mortality. Kerala has
been experiencing a major shift in epidemiological transition, and is ahead than remaining
states. The remaining states lagged Kerala in every respect, that is, with respect to compression
of mortality and expansion of morbidity and per se demographic and epidemiological
transition. Based on the experience of country and Kerala, it is expected that other selected
states may also exhibit decline in the health ratio overtime.
The above discussion affirms that during the last two decades mortality rates have fallen,
rendering increase in longevity, however, marked rise in morbidity level with heavier burden of
chronic noncommunicable diseases. The results favor the notion of low mortality and high
morbidity as revealed in Kerala by Kumar (1993) and more prominent in Kerala in recent
decades. Similar regime is seen in other states as well; strongly among the advanced states and
modestly among less advanced states. The correspondence between age pattern of morbidity
and mortality vis‐à‐vis compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity has been observed
among the states. The pursuit in the process of compression of mortality and expansion of
morbidity is in accordance as per their stages of demographic and epidemiological transition.
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Table 3a: C50 and Health Ratio at Age 60 for Urban Females and Males, India and the Selected States
Female Male
C50 Health Ratio C50 Health Ratio
States 1984‐88 1994‐98 2003‐07 1986‐87 1995‐96 2004 1984‐88 1994‐98 2003‐07 1986‐87 1995‐96 2004
Andhra Pradesh 15.35 17.50 15.74 71.78 67.67 20.72 18.08 16.95 18.07 67.28 61.32 24.22
Assam 16.85 19.26 17.77 74.75 51.09 49.41 20.94 18.48 19.00 72.36 62.24 54.45
Gujarat 24.50 19.17 16.54 75.95 79.62 61.49 21.87 20.25 17.61 78.36 78.79 48.54
Haryana 18.89 17.24 16.06 59.99 71.38 62.63 20.32 19.78 18.25 60.22 72.40 58.02
Karnataka 19.16 19.19 15.01 81.78 65.40 50.39 18.83 18.97 18.12 78.50 69.30 44.57
Kerala 15.99 15.34 12.88 66.01 72.68 24.99 20.96 17.49 15.42 59.21 71.41 30.11
Madhya Pradesh 18.41 18.87 16.81 84.90 82.05 65.96 21.09 17.14 19.92 81.72 80.60 62.96
Maharashtra 17.90 16.92 17.27 84.52 73.22 38.17 19.21 18.36 18.88 80.96 78.61 39.45
Odisha 18.93 19.33 16.66 79.42 82.04 70.13 20.38 21.23 18.44 80.55 78.68 70.64
Punjab 26.74 19.18 17.39 72.25 68.83 53.28 23.58 20.08 18.72 70.08 71.11 62.28
Tamil Nadu 18.99 16.51 16.76 79.33 78.79 54.14 21.25 17.74 18.29 76.85 74.10 53.82
Uttar Pradesh 25.39 22.91 17.98 68.76 72.27 59.27 22.12 20.50 18.49 69.93 72.89 57.13
India 20.11 18.80 16.42 75.94 73.24 45.98 20.26 19.45 18.21 74.60 75.53 50.39
Source: Author’s Calculation from SRS (1970‐2007) and NSS (1986‐87, 1995‐96 and 2004). The C50 estimates are calculated for each year (1970‐2007),
however, presented for selected year only.
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Table 3b: C50 and Health Ratio at Age 60 for Rural, Females and Males, India and the Selected States
Female Male
States C50 Health Ratio C50 Health Ratio
1984‐88 1994‐98 2003‐07 1986‐87 1995‐96 2004 1984‐88 1994‐98 2003‐07 1986‐87 1995‐96 2004
Andhra Pradesh 20.14 18.61 19.17 70.95 60.64 47.03 21.36 20.33 21.58 67.22 48.47 49.10
Assam 22.78 21.80 19.72 77.82 60.60 42.37 24.29 22.18 20.60 76.14 67.08 47.47
Gujarat 24.25 20.23 20.03 85.44 76.00 63.15 22.70 19.04 19.97 85.40 77.54 54.78
Haryana 22.88 18.40 17.60 65.97 77.54 65.00 20.13 20.71 21.26 65.45 80.10 63.57
Karnataka 19.55 19.73 18.55 80.35 63.00 51.00 22.46 19.54 20.82 72.68 70.10 49.91
Kerala 13.73 14.31 13.98 67.39 67.28 22.35 16.18 16.85 17.59 60.71 66.03 28.50
Madhya Pradesh 26.25 21.51 19.92 85.50 83.17 69.26 23.76 21.55 20.32 83.39 81.33 67.33
Maharashtra 17.90 16.92 17.27 84.83 69.44 51.48 19.21 18.36 18.88 82.13 76.07 53.04
Odisha 23.67 21.44 19.07 78.19 81.19 74.18 25.18 21.52 20.37 79.52 80.68 74.46
Punjab 19.91 19.45 18.23 73.81 72.43 48.24 19.55 22.19 20.99 72.05 73.99 57.11
Tamil Nadu 19.40 17.25 17.22 81.10 80.08 58.48 20.10 18.95 18.77 78.88 77.36 60.36
Uttar Pradesh 28.17 22.83 21.11 78.15 77.66 61.31 25.00 21.35 20.22 76.43 78.00 63.01
India 23.10 21.35 19.17 78.79 73.14 58.35 22.79 20.98 19.84 75.74 73.32 59.16
Source: Author’s Calculation from SRS (1970‐2007) and NSS (1986‐87, 1995‐96 and 2004). The C50 estimates are calculated for each year (1970‐2007), however,
presented for selected year only.
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Integrating the empirical evidence of compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity, we
revealed that
1) Increase in the life expectancy is accompanied by the concentration of deaths in narrower age
interval and the high prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases in older ages. The
results ascertained that the progress in compression of mortality and expansion of morbidity is
in accordance with the progress in demographic and epidemiological transition.
2) The inter‐state variation shrunk with respect to mortality compression; however the inter‐
state variation expanded with respect to expansion of morbidity in recent decades.
3) For India as well as for the selected states, especially for demographically advanced states, the
process of expansion of morbidity progresses to a greater extent than the progress in
mortality compression. This is because the C50 values slightly declined during the recent
decade among the advanced states and India and states are amidst the epidemiological
transition.
4) India and the states witnesses shift in the epidemiological transition. The shift is pronounced
among the urban females and demographically advanced states.
Conclusion
The study focused on the demographic processes responsible for shift in the epidemiological
transition. Joshi et al. (2006) explored that the growing burden of CVD has driven the epidemiological
transition in rural India. The present study compliments with his findings at national level, however
the results differ at state level. At national level, the CVD has increased enormously, from 17 in 1986‐
87 to 19 in 1995/96 and to 54 in 2004 per 1000 persons. The C50 values have squeezed by only one
year during the same period. Therefore, at national level, it is quite clear that epidemiological
transition is mainly driven by the high prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases (includes
CVD) and its spread over the younger ages. And thus, expansion of morbidity mainly contributes at
national level for shift in epidemiological transition.
However, across the selected states, the results are not same. The demographically advanced states
differ from demographically less advanced states. Among the demographically advanced states, the
progress in expansion of morbidity is remarkable because the prevalence rate of chronic
noncommunicable diseases is very high and increased remarkably from past viz. Kerala, Andhra
Pradesh and Maharashtra (health ratio declined steeply during 1995/96 to 2004). Against high
morbidity prevalence rate, the C50 values have marginally reduced because of narrower C50 values
throughout the time period, especially among urban females. For demographically less advanced
states, the prevalence rate of chronic noncommunicable diseases has shown modest increase during
1995/96 to 2004 (health ratio declined modestly during 1995/96 to 2004). However, the C50 values
have reduced markedly during earlier period. Therefore, it is distinct that demographically advanced
states, with high morbidity rates and low mortality rates, the epidemiological transition is majorly
driven by the expansion of morbidity and demographically less advanced states, with modest
mortality rates and morbidity rates, the progress in epidemiological transition is modest.
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