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The author infers a strong conclusion from some specious facts.

Such inferences are very far-fetched for lack of strong support

argument：
In this letter, the author suggests that Adams Realty company is superior compared
with Fitch Realty. The author cites some data and his or her personal experience to
back up the argument. However, there are many unsubstantiated assumptions in this
letter that encourage us to think twice about the author's suggestion.

First, the author suggests that the Adams Realty have more agents than Fitch
agents, and thus Adams Realty is better than Fitch Realty. However, the author
assumes that more employees is directly linked with the quality of a company's
service. This assumption is unsupported by the evidence provided. It is entirely
possible that even though Fitch Realty has less employees but these employees have
better skills in their jobs. It is unreasonable to judge a company's ability by how
many agents that the company hires. Adams may have hired more people only because
the managers of this company cannot assign tasks efficiently. Thus, before we rule
out these possible explanations for Adams having more agents, we cannot assume that
Adams Realty is better than Fitch Realty for that reason.

Second, the author suggests that Adams Realty has a higher revenue and average home
sales than that of Fitch Realty, and that proves Adams better than Fitch.
Nevertheless, higher revenue does not equal higher profits. The cost of the daily
operations of Adams Realty may be higher than that of Fitch's. Thus, when cost is
deducted from the revenue, Adams may have a lower profit than Fitch. Furthermore,
higher average home sales also does not mean much in evaluating the two companies.
Fitch can have a lower average home sale, but still sold more houses than Adams.
Because Fitch has less agents and many of them are part-time workers, the human
resources cost of Fitch can be lower than that of Adams. Thus, it is unreasonable
to assume that Adams Realty is better than Fitch Realty because it has a higher
revenue and average home sale price.

Moreover, the author cites his or her own experience in selling houses in both
companies, and suggested that Adams sells fater than Fitch. However, The author
sold the two houses separately during different time periods. The author sold a
house with Fitch ten years ago and waited longer to make the deal than when she
sold her house with Adams last year. This difference in waiting times can be
resulted by how people receive their information. Ten years ago, Internet is not as
prevalent as it is nowadays, and people get information much slower. It is possible
that Fitch sold the author's house slower because that advertisement did not reach
the people that are interested timely. Adam's quicker deal was in debted to a more
immediate marketing environment. Even if Fitch sold the house spending longer times
ten years ago due to their weaker capability, it is possible that Fitch has
improved a lot during the ten years. The author assumes that the reason for Fitch
to sell the house slower ten years ago was entirely due to the company's ability in
selling houses, and even if that is true, the company makes no progress in the past
ten years.

In the paragraphs above, this essay discusses some assumptions that the author
holds in his or her reasoning in recommending Adams Realty over Fitch Realty.
Although the author's good intention is appreciated, before we get the valid
explanations for these assumptions, we cannot make a decision baed on the author's
suggestion.

In this letter, the author suggests that Adams Realty company is superior compared
with Fitch Realty. The author cites some data and his or her personal experience to
back up the argument. However, there are many unsubstantiated assumptions in this
letter that encourage us to think twice about the author's suggestion.

First, the author suggests that the Adams Realty have more agents than Fitch
agents, and thus Adams Realty is better than Fitch Realty. However, the author
assumes that having more employees is directly linked with the quality of a
company's service. This assumption is unsupported by the evidence provided. It is
entirely possible that even though Fitch Realty has less employees but these
employees have better skills in their jobs. It is unreasonable to judge a company's
ability by how many agents that the company hires. Adams may have hired more people
only because the managers of this company cannot assign tasks efficiently. Thus,
before we rule out these possible explanations for Adams having more agents, we
cannot assume that Adams Realty is better than Fitch Realty for that reason.

Second, the author suggests that Adams Realty has a higher revenue and average home
sales than that of Fitch Realty, and that proves Adams better than Fitch.
Nevertheless, higher revenue does not equal higher profits. The cost of the daily
operations of Adams Realty may be higher than that of Fitch's. Thus, when cost is
deducted from the revenue, Adams may have a lower profit than Fitch. Furthermore,
higher average home sales also does not mean much in evaluating the two companies.
Fitch can have a lower average home sale, but still sold more houses than Adams.
Because Fitch has less agents and many of them are part-time workers, the human
resources cost of Fitch can be lower than that of Adams. Thus, it is unreasonable
to assume that Adams Realty is better than Fitch Realty because it has a higher
revenue and average home sale price.

Moreover, the author cites his or her own experience in selling houses in both
companies, and suggested that Adams sells fater than Fitch. However, The author
sold the two houses separately during different time periods. The author sold a
house with Fitch ten years ago and waited longer to make the deal than when she
sold her house with Adams last year. This difference in waiting times can be
resulted by how people receive their information. Ten years ago, Internet was not
as prevalent as it is nowadays, and people got their information much slower. It is
possible that Fitch sold the author's house slower because that advertisement did
not reach the people that are interested timely. Adam's quicker deal could be in
debted to a more immediate marketing environment. Even if Fitch sold the house
spending longer times ten years ago due to their weaker capability, it is possible
that Fitch has improved a lot during the ten years. The author assumes that the
reason for Fitch to sell the house slower ten years ago was entirely due to the
company's inability in selling houses, and even if that is true, the company made
no progress in the past ten years.

In the paragraphs above, this essay discusses some assumptions that the author
holds in his or her reasoning in recommending Adams Realty over Fitch Realty.
Although the author's good intention is appreciated, before we get the valid
explanations for these assumptions, we cannot make a decision baed on the author's
suggestion

At first glance, this statement seems to be correct.But when you consider it

carefully, this view is a bit too absolute.Let me discuss these situations that
have been overlooked by this point .
This view is indeed correct in a certain range.All aspects of our current society,
including the political system, economy, and culture, are all inherited from the
foundation of the past.For example, the current American political system is
inherited from the state system designed by philosophers during the Renaissance.The
government, the Supreme Court, and the Parliament together constitute the mature
political system of the United States.Without the national vision of the
Renaissance philosophers, the American political system would hardly become what it
is now.The famous physicist, philosopher, and mathematician, Newton once said that
all his great achievements are only on the basis of predecessors.In today's
scientific research field, the achievements of predecessors are particularly
important.In the field of modern physics, the establishment of the atomic model is
a process of continuous correction on the basis of the predecessors.Thomson
discovered that atoms are like jujube cakes. Later, Rutherford made a series of
verifications on his basis and found that although the outside of the atom is like
a cake of a sphere, the inside is completely different. And Rutherford's student,
Wilson finally proposed the current atomic model based on his teacher.
However, not all advances are affected by the previous results. Many advances are
pioneering, and there are no results that can be referred to before these
discoveries.When Einstein proposed the theory of relativity, there was no previous
result that could provide relevant help.In this field, no one else has done a lot
of similar research. Therefore, the theory of relativity breaks through the scope
of all previous studies.The person who first proposed the concept of electricity
must have not found any previous literature on electricity that could provide
clues.Many times, when people explore some new fields, there is not much previous
research or results to help.These pioneering research work often requires
imagination, rather than previous articles.
Therefore, it is too sloppy to say that progress in any field is influenced by the
results of predecessors.The realization of a lot of research really only requires
the insight and imagination of the researcher, not the reference of the
predecessors.

11.7
Argument
In this short note, the vice president of human resources at Climpson Industries
recommends that the company can install monitering softwares to reduce the time
that Climpson employees spend on personal or recreational activities. However, the
recommendation is made based on a few unsubstantiated assumptions. I would discuss
how these assumptions can weaken the argument of the vice president.
First, the vice president assumes that using company computers for personal or
recreational purposes is the major reason for being unproductive. In fact, even if
some employees may spend some time on their personal business during work, this may
be a way for them to take a short break and they will resume the work on their
hands shortly. It can be quite refreshing when you put down your work for a short
amount of time and come back to it, especially when you are doing creative work.
Thus, if using company computers for personal or recreational purposes is not that
negative to productivity, it would be a waste of money to install the monitoring
devices.

Second, the vice president assumes that employees can reduce the time that they
spend on personal and recreational purposes once the software is installed.
However, that mau not be the case. For example, employees nowadays all have their
own smartphones, and they can use their own devices and data to deal with personal
business or play games during worktime. Installing the monitering software may not
improve productivity of employees directly because they can still find other ways
to spend time on personal or recreational activities.

Third, the vice president assumes that installing the software will increase the
overall profits and not cause negative feelings in the employees. Actually, many
people may feel uncomfortable if the company moniter every single activity they do
from their workstations. This may sound like a distopian idea to many people. If
employees are distressed by this decision, they may be too stressed out to perform
effectively on their jobs. Or worse, experienced employees may resign and leave
Climpson. This may for Before the monitering software is installed, it may be a
good idea to make a survey and see how the employees will react to this decision.
If a large scale of discomfort is shared among the employees, installing the
software may decrease productivity and lower overall profits for the company.

To conclude, the vice president's recommendation is unsubstantiated because there

are unexplained assumption underlying the arguement. In order to bulster the claim,
the vice president would need to prove that the monitering software will actually
improve productivity and the employees do not have excessive negative feelings
about it. Before valid evidence is obtained to prove these two points, we cannot
rely on the recommendation for productivity improvements.

Issue

Some people may suggest that it is no longer possible for a society to regard any
living man or woman as a hero. However, from my perspective, this assertion is too
generalizing and absolute. There are different groups of people in a society who
may adore different figures as heroes. In this essay, I will discuss some scenarios
that can counter the statement.

First, we must acknowledge that under the age of media proliferation, celebraties'
lives are covered very comprehensively, which can reveal their deficiencies quite
easily. For example, Woody Allen may be considered a hero for many cinephiles years
ago. But now, as we know that he is involved in scandals and he may be considered a
pedophile by many people, a lot of his fans declared that they will no longer watch
any film directed by Woody Allen. In fact, I do not think the media coverage that
deromancizes celebraties a negative force: it can actually reveal social problems.
The general public are more aware of what kind of person that they are adoring. In
this age, it is definitely more difficult for anyone to be considered a hero
because his or her life will be scrutinized by the society.

Second, even under the digital era, there are still figures who are cherished as
heroes by the general public. For example, Ruth Bader Ginsberg was adored as a hero
when she was alive by many people across the world. As she dedicated her life to
fight for equality and progressiveness, her efforts influenced many people
positively. As the documentary of her became popular worldwide, she became a figure
that encouraged people to pursue careers that can make the world a little bit
better. Even though she became widely known only under the digital age, she is
still valued as a hero who has integrity and courage. Thus, even nowadays, there
can still be people who are considered heroes in the society.

However, it is more common that different groups of people adore different people
as their heroes. It can be quite a subjective standard. In the digital age, the
Internet has made it much easier for niche groups to find people who share their
interests. People online cluster according to their own passions. For example,
Michael Jordan may be considered a hero by many basketball fans, and Steve Jobs may
be adored by those who are interested in entrpreneurship and technology when he was
alive. It is possible that in many niche groups, we have not even heard of the
names of the people that they consider heroes, but we cannot deny their existence.
Being alive or not is not really a criteria for anyone to be considered hero.
Indeed, it may be hard to have someone to be adored as a hero all across the world
nowadays, but we must recognize that there are still people being considered heroes
in different groups.

To conclude, I do not agree with the statement that it is no longer possible for a
society to regard any living man or woman as a hero. Although it may be difficult
for anyone to become a hero on a large scale because information circulate so
quickly today and celebrities' lives are under careful scrutinization, there are
people who are adored as heroes. The scrutinization is not neccessarily negative,
but can reveal social problems and encourage social changes sometimes. Even when it
may be hard for anyone to become a national or global hero, different groups in the
society can still idolize specific figures according to their own interest. Thus,
it is too generalizing to state that no one alive today will be considered as
heroes by the society

I think this statement is too absolute. Although we often need to speculate

when studying history, some historical studies may be more biased towards factual
analysis

Based on the fact that many other companies have adopted a plan to improve reading,
one graduate of this plan has increased the reading speed and the position of
another graduate has been promoted, the author infers that his company will also be
successful if the same plan is adopted. But such an inference is too sloppy
Firstly,many other companies claim that their efficiency has improved through such
programs. The author should actually investigate the authenticity of such a
statement. It is possible that these companies are just talking. In fact, their
efficiency has not improved. In addition, what percentage of companies
participating in such projects have their efficiency improved. Perhaps only some
companies have improved their efficiency. And most other companies have not
improved efficiency
Secondly,a graduate said that his efficient reading speed has improved. But reading
speed does not equal the efficiency of reading. Even if the reading efficiency of
this graduate increases, it does not mean that the reading efficiency of other
graduates has increased. Maybe this graduate just improved his reading speed. The
reading efficiency of other graduates has not improved. So the author needs to
explain these situations
Thirdly,a graduate getting a promotion does not mean that the graduate has improved
his work efficiency through this program. There are many factors for an employee to
be promoted. It is also possible that this employee has been promoted by his
outstanding achievements in other areas. It is not that this program improves his
work efficiency and leads to his promotion. In addition, when everyone participates
in this program, there is no guarantee that everyone will be promoted. It is also
possible that only this person’s efficiency has been improved while other people’s
efficiency cannot be improved.
To sum up,the author infers the effect of a measure from some specious conclusions.
Such inferences are very arbitrary due to the lack of strong evidence.

I think this requirement is too absolute. Although there are certain benefits for
parents to volunteer in a student’s school, not all behaviors bring about the same
results
Parents doing volunteer work in their children’s schools can indeed bring many
benefits to their children’s studies. Many parents are busy nowadays. Parents have
very limited understanding of their children. Many parents don’t know their
children’s school environment and daily life in school. Therefore, parents
volunteering in their children's schools will help parents to better understand
their children's usual learning and life. Parents can know who their children
usually contact with and what they do. In addition, parents can have more
connections with teachers and other students in their children's schools. In this
way, it is easier for parents to understand what the child is in. Parents can guide
their children in a more targeted way in future family education.
But not all the volunteer work of parents will bring good results. The reality is
more complicated. Some students do not want to see their parents in school. They
will feel that their parents will interfere with their lives too much. Many
students hide their privacy and do not want to let their parents know. So when they
see their parents show up at school, they feel embarrassed. Some students do not
want their parents to be known by other students. They are not willing to let
others know about their parents' occupations and other things about their parents.
They will feel that many of their parents' things are relatively outdated. So when
parents show up in school, they feel embarrassed. Even some students will have a
rebellious psychology. Some other students feel that their parents are too strict
with them and they have no personal space
To sum up, although parents’ volunteer activities in their children’s schools do
bring certain benefits, not all such behaviors produce similar positive effects.
Whether all the parents of the students need to do voluntary activities need actual
situation analysis

Based on the fact that the labor cost of most dairy farms has decreased and the
efficiency of dairy farms collecting milk has increased, the author infers that the
increase in the price of butter is caused by artificially increasing the price of
butter by dairy farms. But such an inference is very sloppy
The first point is that increasing the efficiency of collecting milk does not mean
that the efficiency of producing cheese has increased. There are other steps in the
production of butter. Therefore, even though the efficiency of collecting milk is
improved, the efficiency of butter production is not improved due to interference
from other factors. For example, the process of producing cream requires other
special steps. The increase in the cost of these steps has led to an increase in
the production cost of cream.
Secondly, although the labor cost of most dairy farms has decreased, it does not
mean that the cost of cream production has decreased. The cost of butter production
is determined by many factors. Labor cost is just one of them. It is possible that
a certain cost in the butter production process has increased. For example, the
increase in the cost of a certain food additive leads to an increase in the overall
production cost of cream. Therefore, even if the labor cost has decreased, the
production cost of the cream has increased.
Thirdly,the price of butter is also related to many factors. It is also possible
that the price index of the entire region has risen a lot. The prices of other
foods have generally risen by two to three times. The increase in the price of
butter is just a common phenomenon. Therefore, the current price of cream is twice
as expensive as in the past, but it does not mean that the price of cream is
relatively expensive. These price increases are most likely caused by inflation.
The author needs to provide a more specific analysis
Finally, even if dairy farms increase the price of butter artificially, their goal
is not necessarily to increase profits. It is also possible that they are just
trying to recover costs. It is also possible that the cost of capital has risen so
sharply that the profit of the dairy farm is very low. Even though labor costs and
production efficiency have increased, dairy farms still have to increase the price
of butter to recover costs
In summary, the author infers a very narrow conclusion from some specious facts.
Such an inference is very far-fetched due to the lack of strong evidence

I think this statement is too absolute. A lot of research on its value is not
short-term. Many researches are very foreword, but they are also worth studying.
When considering whether a research is worth investing in, the fund should indeed
consider its value. When many funds decide whether to support a research, they also
consider whether the research brings corresponding value. Just like the National
Science Foundation of the United States, they will give priority to those studies
that will generate value. And some commercial companies will also support research
that can generate profits immediately. For example, pharmaceutical companies invest
a lot of money in drug research and development every year. They believe that these
research and development will soon produce new drugs. In fact, some other studies
are just piles of papers, and they are not of much value. These studies will
gradually be eliminated.
However, many studies do not seem to have immediate value due to their very cutting
edge. But these studies are often necessary. For example, the first physicists who
studied the structure of the atom did not think of how much value their research
would bring. But these studies form the foundation of atomic physics. These studies
laid the foundation for the later generation of atomic bombs and the use of nuclear
energy. Without these studies, it is impossible for people to use nuclear energy.
The scientists who were the first to study the movement of celestial bodies did not
think that these studies would bring much value. They may be more inclined to
understand how the earth was created. But these studies will also bring great value
in the future. It's just that they currently don't show short-term value. Science
is a progressive process. A lot of basic research seems to be of no value, but it
is actually very necessary
To sum up,when considering whether a research is worth investing in, the fund
should indeed consider the value it generates.But a lot of basic research seems to
be worthless because it is very advanced.But these studies are also very necessary

Based on the facts that Quiot factory has more production accidents than the next
factory, Quiot factory's shift time is longer than the next factory, and fatigue is
one of the causes of accidents,the author infers that reduced shift time can
increase rest time and reduce accidents. But such an inference is very imprecise
Firstly,there are many reasons that affect production accidents. Fatigue is just
one of them. There may be other reasons for the different number of production
accidents in the two factories. Even experts admit that fatigue is one of the
causes of production accidents. It does not mean that the difference in production
accidents between the two factories is due to fatigue. The author needs to provide
other data to illustrate
Secondly,reduced shift time does not necessarily give employees more rest. Each
factory has its own specific rules and regulations. Even if the shift time is
reduced, the employees of the factory may use the extra time to do other things.
For example, the factory has some other regulations for employees to complete
specific tasks every day. Therefore, the shift time reduces the employees will use
these time to complete these tasks. So even if employees’ shift hours are reduced,
they may not have more rest time
Thirdly,many factors affect whether employees are fatigued and productivity is
improved. Shift hours are just one of the reasons. For example, the production
environment will also have a great impact. A good production environment will make
employees more concentrated. For example, some companies will play music or other
methods to make it easier for employees to concentrate. There are many other ways
to affect whether employees are tired. Even if some employees have longer rest
periods, the production environment of the company is relatively harsh. These
employees are generally more prone to fatigue. The author needs to provide these
special instructions
To sum up, the author infers from a difference between the two factories that the
difference is the cause of the different number of accidents in the two factories.
Due to the lack of other relevant strong evidence to support, the inference is very
arbitrary.

A few traffic accidents involving young people does not mean that
the driving standards of young people in the area are relatively low.
The authors of these traffic accidents need to provide detailed information.
It is very likely that these traffic accidents have occurred in a certain place.
The road conditions in this place are relatively poor and it is a high accident
area.
Other ordinary people often have accidents in this place.
Therefore, the driving level of young people does not necessarily need to be
improved.

Even though the two driving schools in the area are more expensive for some
families,
it does not mean that only schools that provide driving courses can improve
students' driving skills.
In real life, there are many other ways to solve such problems. For example, the
government can provide some
student subsidies to subsidize these poor families. In this way, these poor
families can also afford these driving school
courses. And these driving schools can also offer discounts for students with
family difficulties.

I think this statement is too absolute. Group discussions that require cooperation
can indeed bring many benefits to students. But whether such discussions need to
replace a large number of courses is still worth discussing
Group discussions can indeed bring many practical benefits to students. Now society
really needs the ability to communicate with people. Many tasks do require many
people to complete together. The strength of a person is indeed very weak. And
unity and cooperation will improve work efficiency and make many things completed
more smoothly. This is why many companies now place great emphasis on teamwork. And
some things must be done by the team together. For example, the development of a
software requires many programmers, architects and designers to complete it
together. Therefore, such group activities that require the participation of many
people do bring many practical benefits to students. These activities provide a lot
of practical long-term help for students to get out of society.
But learning is also a process that is done alone. A lot of learning content really
needs to be completed by individuals alone. The learning process is a process of
self-knowledge and self-correction. Many processes must require individual thinking
and reflection. The team cannot replace such a process. Therefore, too many team
activities will take up the learning process that requires one person to complete
and may affect a student's learning. For example, when you are learning some
theoretical knowledge, you have to calm down and read some of the more important
documents in the past and present. You need to reflect on past mistakes to correct
your own understanding. And this process can only be done by yourself alone. It is
impossible for the team members to help you. Therefore, if a large amount of course
teaching is replaced by team activities, these processes that require independent
learning will be negatively affected.
To sum up, although team activities can indeed bring many long-term benefits to
students. But the learning process that requires calming down and thinking alone is
also essential. Therefore, it is worth further consideration whether the learning
of a large number of alternative courses for these team activities.

Based on the fact that the area has lower than normal 90 days of low temperature,
the people in the area mainly used oil for heating in the past and the increase in
population in the area has led to an increase in houses, the author infers the
future heating in the area The oil consumption will increase. But such an inference
is very sloppy.
First of all, people mainly used petroleum for heating in the past does not mean
they will do the same in the future. It is also possible that with the development
of other alternative energy technologies, other alternative energy sources will
replace oil for heating. For example, because solar energy is very cheap due to
technological progress, people may prefer to use solar energy. So even if the
population of the area will increase, the oil consumption will not increase.
Secondly,even if the population of the area increases, it does not mean that oil
consumption will increase. We do not know the consumption preferences of these
newly added populations. It is very likely that these newly added populations may
be biased towards other energy sources, such as electricity. Therefore, even if
these people join the region, it does not mean that oil consumption will increase.
The author needs to provide a more specific analysis
Thirdly,the author needs to provide a detailed explanation of what kind of trend
the data is 90 days below normal temperature in the area. It is very likely that
the number of low-temperature weather in the past was far greater than 90, but the
number of days below normal temperature in the region has been decreasing due to
climate warming in recent years. And the number of days of low temperature weather
in the future will continue to decrease. As a result, oil consumption for heating
in the region will drop. Therefore, the author needs to explain a trend of cold
weather. Otherwise, only a 90-day low temperature weather will not explain any
problems.
Lastly,even if the oil consumption for heating in the area will increase, it does
not mean that such retail companies will get a return. It is very likely that there
are many such companies selling oil in the region. They predicted this trend in
advance and have already taken action. Therefore, the supply of oil in the market
is already sufficient. Therefore, continuing to invest in this related retail
enterprise will not be rewarded. Therefore, the author needs more analysis whether
it is worth such an investment.
To sum up, the author infers a future trend from some specious data. Due to the
lack of relevant evidence, such an inference is too far-fetched

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Based on the facts that the company has a new wool supplier, the company has not
produced such coats in the past
5 years and competitors have not produced such coats. The author speculates that
the company will now produce
such coats. Come a lot of profits. But this is too sloppy
Even with a new wool supplier, the company's production of new coats is not
necessarily stable.
It is also possible that the supplier will interrupt the supply halfway or there
are other factors that affect the current coat production. Perhaps the relevant
accessories for the production of coats are now out of the market or there are no
workers familiar with the production of such coats. Therefore, the company may not
be able to successfully produce such a coat. The second point, even if a competitor
does not produce this type of coat, it does not mean that the coat can be welcomed
by the market. It is also possible that the current consumer's taste has changed.
The current consumption of several coats no longer particularly like. So even if
the company produces many coats, consumers may not necessarily buy such coats.
Therefore the author needs to provide a more detailed investigation. 3 points

I think such a statement is too absolute. Although the welfare of the residents of
a country is one of the signs of the greatness of the country’s leaders. But there
are many other indicators that can show the leader’s ability。
The welfare level of a country’s residents can indeed reflect the efficiency of a
leader. For example, the welfare level of people in many European countries is very
high. Most of these countries have adopted democratic systems. Leaders are very
concerned about the welfare of ordinary people. And one of the most important
evaluation indicators for leaders is whether the welfare level of residents has
improved. India's per capita welfare level has been greatly improved during the
Indian Prime Minister Modi's administration. Modi is also considered a successful
prime minister. And Russia is another story. The welfare level of the people in
this country has dropped drastically. These reasons are directly caused by the
leaders.
But there are many other indicators that can be used to measure the effectiveness
of a leader. For example, in the Soviet Union during the Cold War, although the
people's living standards have not improved much. However, during this period, the
Soviet Union made significant progress in military science, technology and
education. Because the Soviet Union’s goal was to confront the United States，the
welfare of the people is not a political consideration. Competition in the fields
of military science, technology and education was the main goal of the Soviet
Union. Therefore, the Soviet Union's breakthrough in military technology during
this period was also a manifestation of the ability of the leaders of that period.
The leader’s ability cannot be overshadowed by the stagnation of people’s welfare.
To sum up, although the welfare of a country’s people is one of the measures of a
leader’s ability, progress in other fields of education and technology can also
reflect the leader’s effectiveness.

Based on the facts that the maintenance cost of company Zeta's building was
relatively low last year, the energy consumption of its building was low and the
company’s staff turnover rate was low, the author inferred that it would be more
cost-effective to use this company. But such an inference is more arbitrary.
Firstly,the relatively low maintenance cost of the Zeta's building last year does
not mean that the maintenance cost of the building in the past 10 years has been
low. It is very likely that the maintenance cost of the building has been
relatively high in the past 10 years.Until last year, the maintenance cost of the
building Only lower than competitors' buildings. Therefore, only last year's data
cannot show that the maintenance cost of the company's buildings has been
relatively low. The author needs to provide other instructions.
Secondly,the lower energy consumption of the company’s building does not mean that
the overall cost of the building is lower, because the overall construction cost of
the company’s building is higher. Therefore the author needs to provide a
comparison between the money saved in energy and the increased cost of
construction. Only in this way can the company's construction save more money.
Thirdly,the relatively small turnover of employees does not mean that the company
is better. The turnover of employees needs to be considered in different
environments. It is very likely that the country's economy is taking off during
this period. Other competitors' companies are constantly expanding. Therefore, the
employee turnover rate of these competitors' companies is relatively high. However,
Zeta does not have much staff turnover due to its self-reliance. Therefore, the
company's competitiveness is relatively poor.
Finally,the author compares only the buildings built by these two companies 10
years ago. After 10 years, these two companies have undergone different changes.
Therefore, comparing the buildings of the two companies in the past, it is
impossible to infer the current construction situation of the two companies. It is
very likely that the buildings produced by Zeta are not more energy-efficient . And
the type of building built in the past was the headquarters building,but the
author has not given the type of building now. Different types of buildings will
also cause differences in costs.
In conclusion,the author infers the current situation from some specious facts. The
inference is very far-fetched due to the lack of knowledge of strong evidence.

I think this statement is too absolute. Although choosing courses based on

interests can bring many benefits, sometimes many students just need a good job
Selecting courses based on interests can indeed bring many benefits to
students. Interest is the best teacher. If a course is of interest to students,
this course can be learned by students with a high probability. Only after having
interest can students have the motivation to create more breakthroughs. And to a
large extent, interest is also related to the students' future career. Many
students also refer to their own interests to a certain extent when looking for
jobs. Therefore, choosing courses based on interest can not only improve students'
learning efficiency, but also lay the foundation for their future careers. Many
scientists in history have also made choices based on their hobbies. Schrödinger
also liked physics and gave up the previous literature. Interest makes many
breakthroughs possible.
But the goals of the students are different. Many students’ families are
difficult, so their goal is to find a good job. Interest is very luxurious for
them. They like many subjects but they don't have time to develop such a hobby.
Many students are burdened with large amounts of college loans when they enroll.
And now the tuition fees are getting more and more expensive. The burden on
students is getting heavier. Therefore, many students start to look for jobs while
in college. Once they find a lot of job opportunities, they will give up their
studies. For other students, their goal is to find a good career. Therefore, once
they find a good opportunity, they will give up their studies. For example, Bill
Geish also discovered software development during college and gave up his studies.
To sum up, although choosing courses based on interest can bring many benefits
to students, different students have different needs. Whether to choose courses
based on interests should be based on the needs of students.

Based on the facts that mopeds are the main means of transportation in the area,
the population of the area has increased in summer and the area next door has
adopted restrictions on auto rental and reduced related accidents. the author
inferred that this area can take the same measures and achieve the corresponding
reduction in motor-assisted car related accidents. But such an inference is very
sloppy.
Firstly,although Seaville has adopted a method of restricting moped rentals, it
does not mean that this measure has led to a reduction in moped-related accidents.
In fact, there are many factors that affect the occurrence of moped accidents. It
is very likely that other supporting measures have been taken in this area to
strengthen the reduction of moped accidents. For example, the area restricts the
time residents can use mopeds. In this way, residents' chances of using moped
during peak hours are reduced. Therefore, these measures have contributed to the
reduction of related accidents.
Secondly,even if the Seaville takes measures to restrict moped rentals and causes a
decline in related accidents, it does not mean that the same measures in Balmer
will achieve the same effect. There are many differences between the two regions.
These differences will cause these measures to produce different results. For
example, the proportion of moped in the Seaville is much larger than that in this
region. Therefore, restricting leasing in Seaville will produce better results.
Lastly,even if Seaville caused a 50% reduction in related accidents by restricting
moped rentals, it does not mean that Balmer will get a 50% reduction. The
difference between the two cities will affect these quantitative results. For
example, the populations of the two regions are different or the residents have
different preferences for transportation. In this way, even if Seaville restricts
the rental of mopeds that will result in a 50% reduction in accidents, it does not
necessarily guarantee that Balmer will also have a 50% reduction in related
accidents. The author needs to specify other influencing factors, such as the
population between the two regions and the number of scooters.
To sum up, the author inferred from some specious facts that a measure will produce
the same effect. Such an inference is very far-fetched due to the lack of strong
evidence

Based on the facts that the cost of buildings constructed by Zeta is higher than
that of company Alpha, the maintenance cost of the buildings constructed by this
company last year was only half of that of company Alpha's buildings and the
energy consumption cost of this company's buildings is lower than that of Alpha,
the author inferred that Zeta should be responsible for the construction tasks.
But such an inference is too far-fetched
Firstly,the low maintenance cost of Zeta's building last year does not mean that it
is like this every year. It is very likely that last year there was a very special
reason that led to the lower maintenance cost of Zeta's building. Therefore, last
year, the maintenance cost of company Zeta's building was lower than that of
company Alpha. But in other years, the maintenance cost of company Alpha's building
was much lower than that of Zeta's building. Therefore, the author needs to provide
other detailed instructions.
Secondly,the construction cost of Zeta's building is more than that of Company
Alpha's building. But Zeta's building costs less energy. The author needs to
compare the quantitative relationship between construction cost savings and energy
cost savings. It is very likely that the additional construction costs of Company
Zeta cannot make up for the energy cost savings. Therefore, the cost of Zeta's
building is likely to be higher.
Thirdly,the age of the building also affects the cost of the building. The author
compares only the buildings built by the two companies in the past. But the author
did not specify the age of these buildings. It is very likely that the buildings
built by company Zeta are generally relatively new, while the buildings built by
Alpha are relatively old. Therefore, the maintenance cost and energy cost of
Alpha's buidlings are relatively high. But if the building age is the same, the
maintenance cost and energy cost of the buildings of the two companies may not
continue to maintain this relationship. Therefore the author needs to provide more
information.
To sum up, the author infers from some specious facts that the cost of one building
is lower than another. Such an inference is too sloppy, due to lack of relevant
strong support

Based on the facts that the company introduced the first low-priced grain a year
ago, the product attracted a large number of customers and the competitors failed
to adjust repeatedly, the author inferred that the company can get the same by
continuing to launch low-priced products. effect. But such an inference is very
sloppy
Firstly,the measures taken by competitors to cut prices and the introduction of
economical products have not produced any effect in the past year does not mean
that there will be no effect in the future. It is very likely that the effects of
these measures will need to be reflected in the long-term. Even if these measures
do not have a significant economic impact on the company in the short term, these
facts do not mean that these measures will continue to have no impact next year. It
is very likely that these measures will attract more consumers next year.
Therefore, the company's low-price strategy may not be able to achieve sustainable
results.
Secondly,a low-price strategy that was successful a year ago may not necessarily be
successful next year. Last year, the company’s low-priced products could attract
competitors’ customers. It is very likely that there is no such low-priced product
in the market. But once a competitor also provides a lot of similar competing
products, the company will face many challenges in continuing to launch low-priced
products. Such a low-price strategy may not be as effective as a year ago. The
author needs to provide more factors that influence these effects.
Thirdly,the success of the company's first low-priced product does not mean that
subsequent similar products can attract more consumers and achieve success. It is
very likely that the market is new to this new brand and is willing to try such a
brand new brand. Therefore, the first product of these new brands has received
extraordinary attention. But once the brand is familiar to consumers, the
subsequent products of this brand may not have the same exposure and freshness as
the first product. Therefore, customers may not have special attention to the
company's subsequent products. Therefore, subsequent similar low-priced products
may not necessarily achieve similar success as the first product.
In conclusion,the author infers from some specious facts that a strategy will
produce lasting effects later. Such an inference is very far-fetched due to the
lack of strong support.

Adhering to your own ideas is indeed a commendable thing. But in real life many
times people need to compromise their own ideas. Whether compromise brings more
harm than persistence needs to be discussed according to different situations.
Sticking to your own ideas is indeed a thing that has been supported by most people
for a long time. No matter textbooks or teachers, they often cite many examples.
The protagonists of these examples basically achieve success by sticking to their
own ideas. An example often cited in textbooks is the famous inventor Edison, who
achieved success by sticking to his own ideas. Edison conducted thousands of
experiments on the bulb and finally discovered the tungsten filament bulb invented.
So he brought light to the whole world. To a certain extent, sticking to your own
ideas can indeed make it easier for people to achieve something. Many things do
require long-term focus and energy investment.
But the reality is very complicated. Many times people must change their minds
based on facts. A great breakthrough is a process of continuous improvement. For
example, the first physicist hoped to realize the desire of human flight by
simulating birds. However, engineering constraints make it difficult to realize
such an idea. So physicists compromised this idea. They changed the initial design
through mechanics and engineering methods. So they quickly invented the earliest
airplane. The initial idea may be good. However, due to the lack of understanding
of the later variables, it is also a very good choice for people to continuously
improve the initial goals and methods.
In conclusion,sticking to your own ideas is indeed a good thing. But whether
sticking to your own ideas brings more benefits needs to be discussed according to
different situations

Based on the fact that a survey shows that many employees use company computers to
play games and install monitoring software to monitor employees’ computer usage,
the author infers that such a measure is the best and that it can bring profits.
But such an inference is too sloppy.
Firstly,a survey shows that many employees use the company's computers to play
games, but it does not mean that the company's employees will do the same. This
survey shows the general situation. The author of the company’s situation needs
specific explanations. It is very possible that the company has restricted the
network. It is difficult for the company’s employees to access gaming or shopping
sites through the company’s computers. Therefore, it is impossible for employees of
the company to visit these websites.
Secondly,even though monitoring software can monitor the use of computers by
employees, such monitoring software may not be the best solution. Even if such
monitoring software exists, many employees can use the software's vulnerabilities
to avoid monitoring. Even some employees can set up computers to evade the
supervision of monitoring software. Other methods, such as directly restricting
access to certain specific websites through the line, may be more effective.
Thirdly,even though the monitoring software can monitor employees’ computer usage,
this measure may not necessarily reduce employees’ entertainment during work hours.
Many employees can be lazy in other ways. For example, when doing things, they may
think wildly. They are very inattentive. So they may not use the company's computer
to play games, but their work efficiency is also very low. Even many employees are
disgusted with the monitoring software. Therefore, they may make more use of other
methods to be lazy.
To sum up, the author infers that a measure is the most effective through some
specious evidence. Such an inference is very far-fetched due to the lack of strong
support.

I think this statement is too absolute. Although those in power for a longer time
in power can indeed bring a lot of harm， sometimes a long-term leader is also
necessary。
Those in power who stay in power for too long do cause many problems. If a leader
has been in power for more than 10 years, the leader may have the problem of
nepotism. These leaders will give priority to those who are obedient. Those who
have a better relationship with the leadership will also be promoted first. On the
other hand, these long-term power holders are likely to take the collective
interests as their own. Therefore, they will use the conditions of the organization
to create benefits for themselves. This is also the reason why many organizations
limit the term of leadership. The President of the United States will hold a
general election in about four years. The term of office of leaders of mainstream
organizations is generally about five years.
But sometimes a long-term authority is effective for an organization. For example,
after World War II, the United States needs a long-term authority to help the
United States get out of the negative effects of the war. Therefore, President
Roosevelt was re-elected for four terms. It was this long-time holder of power who
led the United States out of the shadow of war and achieved the glory of its golden
age. And like Japan in the economic downturn in the bubble economy era, the long-
term change of leaders led to changes in Japan's policies day by day. No long-term
policy has been implemented. Therefore, Japan's economy continued to be in a slump
in those 10 years. Without a long-term leader, it is difficult for Japan to get out
of this dilemma. In a difficult time, a long-term leader can lead the organization
out of the predicament.
To sum up, although a long-term authority can do a lot of harm to the
organization， in some special times, these long-term leaders can lead the
enterprise organization out of the predicament

Based on the facts that other companies have improved their productivity through
this project, one employee has improved their reading speed through this project,
and another employee has been promoted through this project, the author infers that
his company can also improve through this project. productivity. But such an
inference is too reckless.
Firstly,the fact that an employee improves reading speed through this project does
not mean that everyone can improve reading speed through this project. The author
needs to provide more sample instructions. Otherwise, the effect of an employee is
not representative. It is quite possible that most participants in the project did
not improve their reading speed much.
Secondly,an employee's promotion through this project does not mean that the
project is the reason for the employee's promotion. The author needs to provide
other instructions. It is also possible that the employee has also made other
achievements during this period of study. These achievements led to her promotion
this time. Therefore, it is not the project that led to the promotion of this
employee. And the effect of an employee is not representative.
Thirdly,The promotion of employees and the increase in reading speed of employees
do not necessarily directly increase productivity. Productivity is determined by
many other factors together. Even if the employee’s reading speed increases,
productivity in other aspects of the company will not necessarily be improved if it
is not improved. For example, in some aspects, the company still has the same
process as before. So even if the reading speed of employees increases, the overall
production efficiency may not necessarily improve.
Lastly,even if other companies can increase productivity through this project, it
does not necessarily mean that the company can produce the same effect through this
project. Every business has many different places. Therefore, even if the company
adopts such a project, the company may not necessarily achieve productivity gains.
The author needs other clarifications.
In summary, the author infers from some specious evidence that the company will
achieve similar results by adopting the same program. But such an inference is very
far-fetched due to the lack of strong support

The author uses the facts that there have been several traffic accidents involving
teenagers in the past, some parents complained that
there is no time to teach their children to learn to drive, and that driving
schools in the area are expensive for some parents. The author infers that the only
effective The way to solve the problem of juvenile traffic accidents is to offer
such courses in schools. But such an inference is very arbitrary.

I think this statement is too absolute. Although a comfortable life does hinder
the formation of independent personality, such an environment can also produce many
powerful individuals.
A comfortable life does hinder the formation of independent personality. The
difficulties in life are indeed people's best teachers. The setbacks and
difficulties in life can make people reflect on past actions. In this way, people
can learn lessons from past experience and sum up experience. The more pain
experienced, the more people gain. Therefore, these tribulations in life will make
it easier for people to build strong hearts. People who have experienced setbacks
are more likely to face difficulties in life alone. Such people are more likely to
become independent individuals.
But a comfortable life can also breed an independent character. Convenient life
saves people a lot of unnecessary labor. This way people can have more energy to
think about more important things. People can have more time to engage in more
complex activities. The development of society has led to the division of labor in
society. Those scientists who study cutting-edge science can save time on cooking
and housework and focus on cutting-edge research. Even if life is very convenient,
their research field will often encounter many difficulties. So they also have
strong hearts. Even if life is very convenient, many people now face many other
challenges in life. Many housework can be done with household appliances. But
people are also facing various challenges in life and learning. These challenges
will also encourage people to become independent. People need to identify lies,
complete various challenges independently, and take responsibility independently.
These also promote the formation of independent personality.
In summary, although a comfortable life does hinder the formation of independent
personality, such an environment can also nurture a strong mind

Based on the fact that there are fewer cases of academic deception every year after
the implementation of the honor system and most students prefer not to deceive when
investigating, the author infers that the school can take such measures to reduce
academic deception. But such an inference is very sloppy
First of all, fewer and fewer cases of student deception after the adoption of the
honor system does not mean that academic deception is less and less. It is also
possible that academic deception has not decreased. The reduction in reported fraud
may be due to students’ unwillingness to report. The teacher-supervised system will
not produce such an effect. Once the teacher discovers the deception, he will
report it. Therefore, the cases of student deception may not decrease.
Secondly,in the survey, many students responded that they did not deceive, but it
does not mean that they actually did. Many students lie when investigating. These
students do not necessarily reveal their true thoughts. In addition, this survey
compares the effects between the honor system and the no honor system. This
comparison is inappropriate. This survey should compare the difference between the
teacher's supervision system and the honor system. Therefore the author needs to
provide a comparison between the two situations.
Finally,even if the university can reduce academic fraud through this method, it
does not mean that other schools will achieve the same effect by taking the same
measures. There are many differences between schools. These different factors will
affect the final result. It is very likely that other schools have a worse style of
study. Therefore, even if these schools implement similar programs, the fraud cases
in these schools will not decline. The author needs more supplementary explanation.
Otherwise, it is directly inferred that other schools can reduce deception by
adopting similar programs. Such an inference is very reckless.
To sum up, the author infers from some specious facts that different schools will
achieve the same effect by adopting the same measures. Such inferences are very
arbitrary due to the lack of strong support.

更新：累了。有意向的请私信，然后主动一些，不要只是在看。我真的没那么精力。2 月份马上又要开始多线作战
了。毕竟还要读书和自己的生意。有的女孩子比我的学生还要难伺候。真的无法顾及好多东西。我也不是那种上
班族，有那么时间和你煲粥。比如穿着什么的，忙 i 起来的时候，我平时真的就是灰头土脸。好几天不洗澡。24
小时连轴转。还要调节时差。

要求：女，95 以及 95 后，目前在武汉，一本以上。公务员事业单位优先。积极，活泼。希望你不要观望，敢于
下注。

93 年，湖北人。之前在上海。目前住武汉。硕士在读。

985 本新加坡 top2 硕。

少年的躯壳，思想比较成熟。但是比较喜欢笑。看起来嘻嘻哈哈，但是很多规划都很好。思维缜密。我喜欢积极
的人。不喜欢负能量的人。希望你可以为我带来欢乐。

目前名下英语培训机构在运行，学生基本都是在海外。情况不错。自己对物质比较淡泊。有钱不是万能，没钱是
万万不能的。目前房产若干，有学区。基本上财务算是比较自由，京东，超市以及餐厅一般不需要考虑价格吧。
嘿嘿。最近月底生意不忙，可以约着见面。真诚。

你可以貌美如花，我可以负责挣钱养家。你也可以有自己的事情，我只会支持你。你没有安全感，我可以给你。
你需要成长，我可以陪你成长。

曾经也是追风少年，基本上各种球类都玩的挺熟。打篮球手受过 3 次伤。大学踢足球，司职前锋。可深入可浅显。
由于是工作之后读的书，人生经历相对丰富。感兴趣话题比较多，比较细腻。读书时候比较有文采，现在好久没
怎么碰了。

我比较谨慎，一般人很难真正接近我。但是一旦接近了我，就会发现，我就是那个宝藏男孩。宁缺毋滥，比较自
律。学习能力强。人心浮躁，但是我就像一坛老酒。愈久弥香。

诚心:希望近期可以见面。我不喜欢那种网聊。不屌丝，长得不帅，但是五官精致。有气质。我是能见面就不网聊。
真诚。喜欢活泼可爱的姑娘。爱撒娇的也喜欢。95 后，工作或者学习都行，学历一本以上。人在武汉。有机会可
以见过面。看看展的。音乐会的。探店的。嗯嗯，我承认我是吃货。
我自己：93 年，非典型留学归国人员，住武昌。工作稳定。喜欢美剧的逻辑，日剧的意境。喜欢听电音。也喜欢
听古典音乐。纪录片也喜欢看。也喜欢相声小品。有点中西结合的感觉。喜欢部分文学作品，英文的中文的都有。
意境不一样。不喜欢酒吧等娱乐场所。有一点点追求品质。武汉的早餐很喜欢，只是要注意容易长胖。喜欢生活
简单。简简单单开开心心就好。好奇心比较强，喜欢接触新鲜事物。自身学习能力和逻辑思维能力都还蛮强。二
外德语。英语和外国人交流基本无障碍。
 I think this argument is too absolute. Although learning is largely a self-driven
thing, schools can also play a role in driving students
This is indeed the case, learning is indeed a self-driven thing. The essential
difference between good students and bad students is whether they have the ability
to drive themselves. Learning is a long and boring process. Many students are
interested in certain topics at the beginning. So they can learn very well at the
beginning. But after experiencing the excitement and freshness of the beginning,
many students will lose themselves. They will lose interest in learning. Because
they do not have the ability to drive themselves, it is also difficult for them to
generate motivation for learning. This is how good students and bad students are
produced. And some good students will set some goals by themselves. They keep
making themselves feel fulfilled by completing these goals. Therefore they will
often self-driven to learn. These students will always go on the road of learning.
But schools and teachers can also promote student learning. Schools can set up
different learning atmospheres and environments to allow these environments to
affect students' learning. For example, when a school sets up a classroom, it can
set up more relaxed and learning-related content inside the classroom. Such an
environment can make students more likely to be interested. Or teachers can adjust
the atmosphere and acceptance of learning by setting the content of the classroom.
These contents make students more interested. For example, a biology teacher can
show a lot of fresh specimens to make students interested in biology. And chemistry
teachers can make students more interested in these processes through different
chemistry experiments. Through flexible curriculum settings, the school can adjust
the learning motivation and interest of students. Teachers and schools can adjust
the learning environment and curriculum to drive students to learn.
To sum up, although learning is largely determined by whether everyone has the
ability to drive themselves, schools and teachers can also adjust the learning
environment and curriculum settings to drive students to learn

Based on the facts that many companies claim to have increased productivity through
this project, that an employee’s reading speed through this project has increased,
that an employee has been promoted through this project, and that the cost of the
project is relatively low, the author infers that the company can increase
productivity by requireing all employees to participate in such projects . But
such an inference is very sloppy.
Firstly,the fact that a graduate of this project improves reading speed does not
mean that everyone can improve reading speed through this project. A sample cannot
represent the whole. It is possible that the employee is very suitable for this
project. Therefore, the employee improves reading speed through this project. Most
other employees did not improve their reading speed through this project.
Secondly,a graduate of this project got a promotion through this project does not
mean that all graduates of this project have been promoted. It is possible that
many other graduates did not gain much. It may be due to other reasons that the
graduate was promoted. His promotion has nothing to do with the project. Therefore,
most people cannot gain much from this project.
Thirdly,even if the project cost is small, it does not mean that the project is
beneficial to the company. Those lifetime services may not have a positive impact
on the company’s productivity. Therefore, the cost of the project is a net loss to
the company. Author needs more analysis
Finally,even if some employees have increased their productivity through the
project, it does not mean that all employees can increase their productivity by
participating in the project. There are many differences between employees and
employees. Different people participating in the project will have different
results. It is possible that the company requires all employees to participate in
the project, and many employees cannot improve productivity.
In conclusion,the author infers the implementation of a plan from some specious
facts. This inference is very far-fetched due to the lack of strong support.