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Structural Condition Assessment of Sewer Pipelines

Article  in  Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities · April 2010

DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000081

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 Structural Condition Assessment of Sewer Pipelines
Zafar Khan1; Tarek Zayed, M.ASCE2; and Osama Moselhi, F.ASCE3

Abstract: The need of immediate supportive measures for sustainability of municipal infrastructures calls for better understanding of the
behavior of various infrastructure network systems and their components. This paper presents a study which uses artificial neural networks
to investigate the importance and influence of certain characteristics of sewer pipes upon their structural performance, expressed in terms
of condition rating. In this study, back propagation and probabilistic neural network 共NN兲 models were developed and validated. The data
used in the development of these models were provided by the municipality of Pierrefonds, Quebec. It comprised of parameters related
to sewer pipelines, pipe diameter, buried depth/cover, bedding material, pipe material, pipeline length, age, and closed circuit television
共CCTV兲 based structural condition rating. The first six parameters are the independent variables of the models whereas CCTV based
condition rating for these pipes is the dependent variable 共i.e., the output of the models兲. The developed NN models were used to rank the
parameters, in order of their importance/influence on pipe condition. It was found that, among the studied parameters, material attributes
have highest influence on pipe structural condition, respectively, followed by the geometric and physical attribute group. Sensitivity
analysis was then performed to simulate the structural condition of a pipe at a range of values of each input parameters. Results of
sensitivity analysis describe the nature and degree of the influence of each parameter on pipe structural condition. The developed models
are expected to benefit academics and practitioners 共municipal engineers, consultants, and contractors兲 to prioritize inspection and
rehabilitation plans for existing sewer mains.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲CF.1943-5509.0000081
CE Database subject headings: Neural networks; Assessment; Parameters; Sensitivity analysis; Sewer pipers; Rehabilitation.
Author keywords: Neural networks; Condition assessment; Parameters; Sensitivity analysis; Sewer mains.

Introduction municipal level was $57 billion, which only represented 70% of
Canada’s total civil infrastructure. Though many of the Canadian
The overall state of municipal infrastructure systems worldwide is municipalities have now put into practice some pavement man-
not satisfactory. It was reported that municipal agencies face in- agement systems, but for the buried utilities such as water and
frastructure crisis of varying intensity 共Mirza and Haider 2003兲. sewer, most of them still have to develop and adopt asset man-
The picture is not different in the United States either. According agement plans. There are political, administrative, and technical
to ASCE Report Card, America’s Infrastructure grade point aver- reasons that attribute to this situation. Among them, political pri-
age 共GPA兲 for the year 2005 was “D” with total investment needs orities toward construction, curtailments in federal and provincial
of $2.2 trillion 共ASCE 2005兲. Though the Canadian situation is funding for repair and rehabilitation in addition to deferred main-
tenance have been discussed more often. However, some studies
slightly better than the United States, it is still far from being
emphasize that more efforts should be given to technical issues
satisfactory. Canadian infrastructure has already exhausted around
共Mirza and Haider 2003兲. It is pointed out that while designing
79% of its service life 关Canadian Society of Civil Engineering
and building infrastructure networks, attention should be given as
共CSCE兲 2003兴. Since 1995, Canadian infrastructure deficit has
to how the asset will perform during its entire service life. It is
grown up from a figure of CAN$ 100 billion to CAN $125 billion
therefore important to analyze the operational and functional per-
共Mirza 2006; Adam and Heinke 1987兲. A few years ago, the cost
formances of every asset during its life cycle; from design to
estimate to rehabilitate Canada’s civil infrastructure system at the
construction, operation, maintenance, repair/rehabilitation, and re-
tirement 共Mirza 2006; Mirza and Haider 2003兲.
1
Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Building, Civil, and Environmental Engi-
neering, Concordia Univ., 1515 Ste.-Catherine, W., Montréal PQ, Canada
H3G 1M7. E-mail: zu_khan@encs.concordia.ca
2
Associate Professor, Dept. of Building, Civil, and Environmental Objectives
Engineering, Concordia Univ., 1515 Ste.-Catherine St. W., Montréal
PQ, Canada H3G 1M7 共corresponding author兲. E-mail: zayed@encs. This research was conducted to achieve the following objectives
concordia.ca related to sewer pipelines: 共1兲 study factors that impact their
3
Professor, Dept. of Building, Civil, and Environmental Engineering, structural performance and 共2兲 simulate their structural perfor-
Concordia Univ., 1515 Ste.-Catherine St. W., Montréal PQ, Canada H3G mance under a variety of conditions.
1M7. E-mail: moselhi@encs.concordia.ca
Note. This manuscript was submitted on August 21, 2008; approved
on August 9, 2009; published online on August 15, 2009. Discussion
period open until September 1, 2010; separate discussions must be sub- Background
mitted for individual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Perfor-
mance of Constructed Facilities, Vol. 24, No. 2, April 1, 2010. ©ASCE, Considerable volume of research work has so far been done on
ISSN 0887-3828/2010/2-170–179/$25.00. sewer pipelines, which can be classified into two categories: 共1兲

170 / JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010

modeling the phenomenon of sewer pipeline deterioration and 共2兲 Data collection
investigating the type and degree of influence that various rel-
evant factors have on structural and operational performance of Sewer main attributes Sewer main cond. rating
sewer networks. Review of available literature underline a far Inputs of training set Outputs of training set

greater focus of researchers on modeling/simulation of pipe dete-

rioration and condition assessment as compared to investigating
the nature and extent of influence pipe attributes have upon its
condition. A variety of research techniques have so far been em-
ployed to achieve the aforementioned research. These techniques
include statistical, deterministic, stochastic, and operation re-
search models. Among statistical techniques, regression models
are efficient, provided the predictive variables are already defined
共Chughtai and Zayed 2007; Abraham et al. 1998兲. Deterministic
models may provide general guidelines but they are inadequate
for establishing accurate water and sewer management decisions
共Sumida et al. 2003; Stengel 1994兲. In cases where condition
rating data are not readily available, one can use heuristic predic-
tion models based on expert opinion 共Abraham et al. 1998兲.
Probabilistic models are generally used to estimate economic ser-
vice life of sewer pipes by generating the distribution of future
values of these pipes 共Herz 1996兲. Markov chain type models are
widely used probabilistic models, which are based on the assump-
tion that probabilities pertaining to how the process will evolve in
future depend only upon the present state of that process 共Abra-
ham et al. 1998兲. Abraham et al. 共1998兲 explained the use of
Markovian chain process in modeling deterioration of sewers.
Markovian models, though reliable, need sufficient data for estab-
lishing sound transition probability matrices, artificial neural net-
works 共ANNs兲, on the other hand, are useful in mapping the
relationship between predictor and response 共i.e., independent and
dependent variables兲, even when in cases of complex relation-
ships 共Najafi and Kulandaivel 2005; Moselhi and Shehab 2000;
Chae and Abraham 2001; Smith 2001兲. An automated system for
detection, classification and rehabilitation of sewer pipes using
neural networks was developed by Shehab and Moselhi 共2005兲.
The developed model was based upon image analysis techniques,
ANNs, and visual basic programming. It was found that in sewer
management systems, decision regarding maintenance and reha-
bilitation needs to be supported by a sound decision-making pro-
cedure. Dynamic programming also has significant potential of
developing solutions in this regard. It provides a quick method of
finding optimal maintenance and rehabilitation options for each
analysis period or stage through out the life cycle of a sewer
共Wirahadikusumah et al. 2001兲.
There have been a number of studies on the factors that affect
the structural or operational performance of sewer systems but
most of them consider either only one or a few factors. Ariarat-
nam et al. 共2000兲 described the factors used in setting priorities
for optimizing sewer renewal strategy. The factors weights were
assessed using the analytical hierarchy process which provided
framework for prioritization model development. In addition,
Chughtai and Zayed 共2007兲 explored several aspects of sewer
pipeline deterioration. Different statistical regression models for
structural and operational condition assessment of sewer pipelines
were developed and validated. These models were used to gener-
ate time based deterioration curves for pipes of different materi-
als. In the same study, a neural network based methodology was
also developed, to integrate other condition assessment protocols
with Water Research Center 共WRC兲 protocols 共Water Research
Center 2004兲, to build a combined condition index for sewers.
Neural network
training patterns
(6-inputs, 1-output)
ANN model development
PNN / GMDH
models
BPNN model
Model Model
Re-training Re-retaining
Model Model
verification verification
Parameter significance Parameter signigficance
ranking ranking
Sensitivity analysis
Fig. 1. Research methodology
Proposed Methodology
The research presented in this paper relates to sanitary sewer
pipelines. The overall scope includes 共Fig. 1兲:
• Acquisition of data: data pertaining to a part of the sewer
network of the city of Pierrefonds, Quebec, were obtained and
used to develop the sewer condition assessment models;
• Sensitivity analysis exploring the nature and extent of the im-
pact of every parameter on sewer pipelines: variations in
sewer mains structural condition at a range of values of each
of the considered pipe attribute are determined;
• Significance ranking of the studied parameters: it is based
upon the contribution of each parameter toward pipe condi-
tion;
• Representation of results: results of the sensitivity analysis de-
termining variations in sewer pipe structural condition are
graphically expressed along with the mathematical relation de-
fining the behavior.
The subtasks to achieve the above objectives included the fol-
lowing:
• Model training: one back propagation neural network 共BPNN兲
and one probabilistic neural network 共PNN兲 model was devel-
oped. Training criteria was set in the manner that the model
acquires adequate generalization capabilities but is not over
trained to memorize the patterns;
• Model validation: performance is verified with respect to cer-
tain statistical measures. The outputs estimated by the trained
back propagation model were compared with actual data;
• Parameter significance ranking: in BPNN model the contribu-
tion factor and in case of PNN model the smoothing factor is
the history of adjustments of weights of parameters during
network training. These are retrieved from the network and
serve as the basis of parameter significance ranking;
• Sensitivity analysis: to simulate variation in pipe condition,
one parameter was varied at a time. Only the studied param-

JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010 / 171

Table 1. Description of Condition Rating Grades Input parameters
(Independent variables)
Rehabilitation
Grade Physical description Criticality priority
Bedding
1 Acceptable condition Light Not required Length Diameter Material Age Depth
material
2 Minimal collapse risk Light Low
but potential for deterioration
Data import and set extraction
3 Collapse unlikely but further Medium Medium Import data space
deterioration likely Label data
4 Collapse likely Severe High Extract training, test & production sets
in near future
5 Collapse imminent Severe Immediate Network design and configuration
or collapsed Model configuration
Hidden neurons, layers
Tolerances and training criteria

Train network until it converges to the

eter had actual values in all the patterns whereas the values of maximum extent
all other parameters were fixed. The model was rerun to pre-
dict the condition rating under these conditions; and
• Condition rating as function of individual parameters: the re- Test network with previously allocated data

sults of sensitivity analysis were exported to Matlab to depict

the trends in condition variation. In each case, the polynomial
equation that best explains these trends was also derived. Tested
well No

Yes

Data Collection, Preparation, and Organization Trained model ready to be implemented

Data were collected from the municipality of Pierrefonds, Que. It

consisted of soft copies of general pipeline inventory as well as
computer-aided design 共CAD兲 drawings and hard copy of CCTV
inspection reports. The inspection data was organized into spread
sheet so that it could be merged with other pipe attributes and
subsequently used in the intended analysis. The structural condi-
tion rating of the WRC, U.K. 共Water Research Center 2004兲 is
adopted in this study. An overall sewer condition grade for the
whole pipe segment is identified by a number that ranges from 1
to 5 共Water Research Center 2004兲; 1 indicating acceptable con-
dition and 5 indicating collapse imminent or collapsed pipe. This
overall condition grade is also referred to as internal condition
grade 共ICG兲. Table 1 gives a tabulated summary of pipe physical
condition, assigned criticality, and the rehabilitation priority cor-
responding to each of the five structural grades. As all the param-
eters had different units of measurement and scale of values;
therefore, to make the data compatible with the intended neural
network analysis it was normalized using the following:
Xni = Xi − Xmin/Xmax − Xmin 共1兲
where Xni = normalized value of ith X; Xi = actual value ith X;
Xmin=minimum value of X in sample; and Xmax=maximum value
of X in sample.
Update model and retain when new data
becomes availabale
Fig. 2. Neural network modeling process
whereas probabilistic network is more appropriate when influence
and contribution of model variables is to be explored 共Ward Sys-
tems Group Inc. 1996兲.
Training the BPNN Model
A ward net is a typical back propagation network having a total of
four layers of neurons with one input, two hidden, and one output
layer. The network architecture is shown in Fig. 3. Data were
divided randomly into three sets: 共1兲 60% for training; 共2兲 20%
for testing; and 共3兲 20% for validation. Training set is used to
train the network whereas the test set is used to test the network
during development/training and also to continuously correct it by
adjusting the weights of network links. This way the network

Building Neural Network Condition Rating Models

Neuroshell 2 共Ward Systems Group Inc. 1996兲, which is a com-

mercially available neural network analysis and modeling soft-
ware, was used to develop the models and perform subsequent
analyses. The general methodology adopted in this study to carry
out neural network analysis is briefed in Fig. 2. Two models were
designed using back propagation 共BPNN兲 and probabilistic
共PNN兲 paradigms to serve two different purposes. Back propaga-
tion network is widely used when the model is required to have Fig. 3. Architecture of BPNN ward networks 共Source: Neuroshell 2,
good generalization capabilities to do accurate predictions 1996兲

172 / JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010

Table 2. Characteristics of BPNN Model Table 4. Ranking of Variables—Obtained through BPNN and PNN
Models
Model features Value
BPNN model PNN model
Patterns processed 177
R2 0.8461 Contribution Smoothing
r2 0.8520 Ranking Parameter factor Parameter factor
Mean square error 共MSE兲 0.0150 1 Concrete class 28.63 Bedding 2.65
MAE 0.0730 material class
Minimum absolute error 0.0000 2 Bedding 19.07 Concrete class 2.04
Maximum absolute error 0.5850 material class
Correlation coefficient 0.9230 3 Length 18.12 Length 1.59
4 Diameter 12.74 Diameter 0.48
5 Depth 11.40 Depth 0.36
6 Pipe age 10.04 Pipe age 0.33
reduces the error, when the same pattern is presented to it the next
time. Validation or production set is the part of data which is not
presented to the network during training and is later used to vali-
date the model. For validation, this set of data are presented to the Significance Ranking of Factors
trained model to predict the output. To classify data into the
abovementioned data sets, data patterns are randomly selected In this study, quantitative estimates of the contribution of six pa-
from the entire data space, according to the percentages set in the rameters that influence the structural condition of this class of
training criteria. The training criteria also include fixing the maxi- pipelines are made. The purpose of establishing the input param-
mum tolerable absolute error, minimum absolute error and the eter ranking is to asses the relative importance of parameters that
number of training cycles without improvements. When the given affect the condition of sewer pipelines.
training criteria are met, training of the model is stopped. Table 2
gives the salient features of the trained BPNN model. If the train-
ing criteria are not met, it is suggested to either change the acti- Factor Ranking through BPNN and PNN Models
vation functions or retrain using different architecture.
In case of BPNN model, contribution factor derived from the
contribution factor module of the referred software, determines
Training PNN Model the parameter significance ranking. These contribution factors are
PNNs are known of their ability to quickly train on sparse data developed through an analysis of the link weights of the trained
sets 共Ward Systems Group, Inc. 1996兲. Like training other neural neural network. The higher the number, the more that variable
networks, PNN also require assignment of a calibration mode. In contributes toward prediction or classification of the output. Con-
an attempt to converge on a combination that works best on the tribution factors of different networks cannot be mutually com-
test set, genetic adaptive calibration was selected. It uses a genetic pared. If a certain variable is highly correlated with the answer,
algorithm to find appropriate individual smoothing factor adjust- the variable will have a higher contribution factor. In PNN analy-
ments for each input as well as an over all smoothing factor of the sis the value of individual smoothing factor of each model build-
whole system. The individual smoothing factor adjustment values ing parameter reflects its relative importance toward the output.
are used as significance ranking analysis tools. The larger the Table 4 shows factor ranking, as obtained through BPNN and
smoothing factor for a given input is, the more important that PNN models.
input is to the model. Since output prediction is not the intended It is observed that the relative significance ranking of param-
function of the PNN model therefore, the model does not need eters considered, obtained from the above analysis, can be gener-
generalization capabilities and so it is appropriate to apply genetic alized in the sense that mainly based upon their nature, these six
adaptive calibration. The features of the developed PNN network parameters form three distinct groups. These are material, geo-
are given in Table 3. metric, and physical attribute groups, as presented in Table 5. A
groupwise comparison of the level of influence of a parameter on
pipe structural condition, as given in Table 5, indicates that the
material attributes have the highest influence followed by the geo-
metric and then the physical attribute group.
Table 3. Characteristics of PNN Model
Network feature Value
Type PNN genetic adaptive
Number of inputs 6
Table 5. Classification of Attributes and Group Ranking
Number of outputs 1
Number of training patterns 107 Group Ranking Parameter Ranking
Number of test patterns 35 Material attributes 1 Concrete class 1
Current best smoothing factor 0.7010588 Bedding material 2
Smoothing test generations 1 Geometric attributes 2 Pipe length 3
Last number incorrect 0 Pipe diameter 4
Min. number incorrect 0 Physical attributes 3 Depth 5
Generations since minimum incorrect 1 Pipe age 6

JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010 / 173

Table 6. Performance Measures of BPNN and PNN Models
Measure value
Performance measure BPNN
Average validity percent 共AVP兲 0.8653
AIP 0.1343
RMSE 0.0374
MAE 0.0730
Fitness function 共f i兲 931.97 887.94
Model Validation by Mathematical Diagnostics
Both the developed models are tested with real case data during
their validation process as described in the following section.
Data obtained from the municipality of Pierrefonds, Que. were
divided into three sets: training data 共60%兲, test data 共20%兲, and
production data 共20%兲. The first two sets are used to develop the
models 共i.e., to train the neural network兲, whereas the production
data are not exposed to the network during training. This produc-
tion set of data are used to test the performance of the trained
network. In other words, the production set of data are used to
validate the developed models and test their accuracy in predict-
ing the condition rating of sewer pipes. The developed BPNN and
PNN models were validated using twenty percent of the collected
AVP = I − AIP 共3兲
where AIP= average invalidity percent; AVP= average validity
PNN
percent; Ei = estimated or predicted value; Ci = actual value; and
0.7417 n = number of observations.
0.2583 AIP value varies from 0 to 1. In the AIP test, a value close
0.0763 to “0” is good, meaning that there is negligible element of inval-
0.1262 idity or error in the model performance whereas values of AVP
that are closer to “0” imply that the developed model is not fit for
its purpose and that its prediction are less accurate. The AIP and
AVP values closer to “1” imply otherwise in their respective
cases. The AIP and AVP values of BPNN and PNN are given in
Table 6.
Coefficient of Determination R2
The second indicator known as the coefficient of determination
共R2兲 is the widely used statistical parameter which depicts the
degree up to which a model is capable capturing the variability of
the modeled process 共see Table 6兲.
Root-Mean-Square Error
This indicator represents the goodness of fit and can be estimated
by Eq. 共4兲 共Al-Barqawi and Zayed 2006兲

冑兺
data 共36 patterns兲, which the networks were not exposed to during
n
their training. Performance of each model was tested with respect 1
to certain mathematical validation diagnostics as recommended in RMSE = 共Ci − Êi兲2 共4兲
n i=1
literature 共Zayed and Halpin 2005; Al-Barqawi and Zayed 2006兲.
These indicators are described below and their respective results
where RMSE= root-mean-squared error; Ei = estimated or pre-
are shown in Table 6.
dicted value; Ci = actual value; and n = number of observations. A
model with a RMSE value close to “0” is considered a good fit for
Average Invalidity and Validity Percents its purpose whereas one with a RMSE value close to “1” is not a
valid model. The RMSE values of the developed models are
The first indicator accounts for, the average invalidity percent
given in Table 6.
共AIP兲 and validity percents 共VPs兲 which can be calculated using
Eqs. 共2兲 and 共3兲, respectively 共Zayed and Halpin 2005, Al-
Barqawi and Zayed 2006兲 Mean Absolute Error and Fitness Function „fi…

兺 冏 冉 冊冏
n This fourth indicator is a measure of the goodness of fit. The
Ei
AIP = 1− /n 共2兲 mean-absolute error 共MAE兲 is defined in 共Al-Barqawi and Zayed
i=1 Ci 2006兲

5
Condition rating

0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171

Model Output
Pattern number
Actual condition rating

Fig. 4. ANN model versus actual condition rating results

174 / JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010

Table 7. Sample of Normalized Training Data “f i” value should be close to 1,000 whereas the closer it is to 0,
Pipe Bedding Condition the more invalid is the model. The MAE and “f i” values of the
Depth Length Age Diameter material material rating developed models are also given in the Table 6.
A comparison of the estimated output given by the BPNN
0.63 0.44 0.84 0.14 1.00 1.00 0.30
model and the actual one for the all data points is presented in
0.64 0.51 0.96 0.57 1.00 1.00 0.32
Fig. 4. It is observed that the majority of the results are matching
0.68 0.63 0.96 0.57 1.00 1.00 0.35 with fewer instances of disagreement particularly in the first few
0.68 0.66 0.96 0.07 1.00 1.00 0.35 patterns. This is due to noise in the initially collected data. The
0.68 0.75 0.96 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.36 developed BPNN and PNN models meet the validation require-
0.68 0.88 0.96 0.57 1.00 1.00 0.35 ments in all the diagnostics discussed above and are considered as
0.57 0.50 0.96 0.57 1.00 1.00 0.28 valid models.
0.73 0.05 0.96 0.79 1.00 1.00 0.17
0.54 0.21 0.96 0.79 0.50 1.00 0.40
0.48 0.11 0.96 0.79 0.50 1.00 0.30 Application and Limitations of the Developed
0.45 0.07 0.84 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 Models
0.42 0.00 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.15
0.33 0.52 0.84 0.36 1.00 0.00 0.49
The models presented in this paper are neural network based
computer models, developed using a commercially available neu-
0.26 0.11 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.69
ral network software called Neuroshell 2. The normalized data
0.26 0.73 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00
used to train these models is provided at Table 7, whereas values
0.26 0.05 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.45
of all neural network design parameters and training criteria are
0.23 0.73 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00
given in Table 8. These settings define the network architecture,
0.22 0.43 0.84 0.25 0.50 1.00 0.22
number of neurons in each slab, link weights, and scaling and
0.20 0.28 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00
activation functions of the back propagation, ward net architec-
0.16 0.60 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00 ture of the Neuroshell 2 software. This architecture, as shown in
0.14 0.14 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.86 Fig. 3, is used to develop the BPNN model. For further informa-
0.13 0.73 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00 tion readers may refer to the user manual of Neuroshell 2 共Ward
0.19 0.68 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00 Systems Group Inc. 1996兲. Upon training the developed ANN
0.19 0.69 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00 model, it can be used to predict the condition rating of a sewer
0.21 0.71 0.84 0.25 0.50 0.00 1.00 pipe. As such, practitioners can estimate pipe condition rating by
0.24 0.73 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 inputting the values of the six input variables to that trained
0.21 0.73 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 model. The model will process the input values and predict the
0.17 0.73 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 condition rating.
0.15 0.74 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 However, like any other model, neural network models also
0.18 0.57 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 have their limitations. These are mainly related to either lack of
0.21 0.09 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 1.00 data or incomplete or noisy data. The results obtained indicate
0.25 0.52 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 that the developed models are fit for the purpose of estimating the
0.25 0.19 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 1.00 structural condition of sewer pipes for the range of the data used
0.23 0.68 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 in their training 共see Table 9兲.
0.23 0.31 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.24 0.37 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sensitivity Analysis
0.23 0.05 0.84 0.14 0.00 0.00 1.00
0.24 0.69 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 The six input variables used in the analyses were varied one at a
0.23 0.12 0.84 0.36 0.00 1.00 0.43 time to determine their respective impact on the structural condi-
0.23 0.53 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 tion rating of sewer pipes. For this purpose, values of only the
0.23 0.68 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 studied factor were varied whereas the values of all the other
0.22 0.67 0.84 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 factors were fixed. For parameter with continuous values, average
of their data space was used whereas for those parameters whose
n values are in the form of discrete categories, their median value
1
MAE = 兺
n i=1
兩Ci − Êi兩 共5兲 was used in the sensitivity analysis. Data organized in this manner
was presented to the trained neural network to predict new out-
puts. The network was run and predictions of output, i.e., struc-
where MAE= mean absolute error; Ei = estimated or predicted
tural condition rating of pipe were obtained. Since, there were no
value; Ci = actual value; and n = number of observations. MAE
variations in any factor other than the one studied, therefore the
value varies from 0 to infinite. For a model to be valid, the MAE
variations observed in the predicted condition of sewer pipe were
value should be close to 0. The MAE value is also used to define
under the exclusive influence of the studied parameter. In other
the fitness function “f i” of a model which is given in 共Dikmen
terms, the effects of all other parameters were discounted and the
et al. 2005兲
exclusive effects of the studied parameter upon pipe condition
1,000 rating were determined. Subsequently, these simulations of future
fi = 共6兲 structural performances of sewer pipes were expressed graphi-
1 + MAE
cally in Fig. 5 to give a relatively clearer and direct knowledge
where MAE= mean-absolute error and “f i = fitness” function. The of the interrelationships of pipe future structural condition and
equation for fitness function indicates that if a model is valid its the studied factors. Sensitivity analysis results were exported to

JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010 / 175

Table 8. Neural Network Design Parameters and Training Criteria
Link
Slab Number Activation Link Learning Initial
number of neurons function number rate Momentum weight
Design 1 6 Linear 共0,1兲 1 0.1 0.1 0.3
2 5 Gaussian 2 0.1 0.1 0.3
3 5 Tanh 3 0.1 0.1 0.3
4 5 Gaussian comp 4 0.1 0.1 0.3
5 1 Logistic 5 0.1 0.1 0.3
6 0.1 0.1 0.3

Training Stop training when one of these is true about the training set Average error⬍ 0.0002
Epochs since minimum average error⬎ 1,000
Stop training when one of these is true about the test set Calibration interval 共events兲 200
Events since minimum average error⬎ 20,000

Matlab to generate these graphs and to achieve the best polyno-
mial fittings along with their mathematical expressions. The set of
these six polynomial equations each expressing sewer pipe struc-
tural condition as a function of its single independent variable is
presented in Table 10. Based on the coefficient of determination
共R2兲 values given in Table 10, it can be stated that within the data
limitations the performance of these functions is quite satisfac-
tory. All the graphs in Fig. 5 are plotted using a normalized scale
from 0 to 1. Since the magnitude of variation differs in each case;
therefore for better visual presentation the bitmap images of all
these graphs are later adjusted to same size.
Pipe Condition as Function of Its Length
A dual behavior is found in the condition of pipes with respect to
changes in pipe length as depicted in Fig. 5共a兲. At smaller lengths
of the segments till a value of 70 m, there is no effect on the
condition. After 70 m, any further increase has a good and sup-
porting impact on pipe condition. The reason can be attributed to
the reduced density of end joints, as joints are the source of break
dislocation, infiltration and exfiltration 共Hau 2004兲. This high-
lights the need to investigate more on the effects of pipe end
conditions and energy dissipation mechanism on the structural
condition of long sewer pipes. A third order polynomial expres-
sion as given in Table 10 describes the structural behavior of pipe
at various pipe lengths.
expressed as a function of depth. It is observed that any increase
in depth has a negative effect on the pipe condition. Pipes at
greater depth are liable to have more deterioration than those at
shallow depths. The rational for this behavior is that increase in
depth implies greater dead load over the pipe, in addition to
higher probability of ground water table affecting the pipe. An
investigation of soil-structure interaction and possible mechanical
reason may further substantiate the result. It is known that in-
crease in dead load is coupled with increase in lateral compres-
sive stresses on pipe. A latest study 共Howard and Howard 2008兲
on the effect of depth on the modulus of reaction 共E⬘兲, which is a
measure of the stiffness of soil around the pipe, however indicates
that the stiffness of soil does not increase with increase in depth
up to 25 ft. In this study, 45 test measurement sets for flexible
sewer pipes, from eleven different pipe installation sites, were
analyzed to evaluate the relation ship between modulus of soil
reaction and depth of soil cover over pipe. It was found that a
strong linear relationship exists between the vertical deflection of
pipe and depth of cover, indicating that E/ does not vary with
depth. Since the modulus of soil reaction does not change with
respect to depth 共up to 25 ft兲, causing deflection in flexible pipes,
increase in dead load over rigid pipes also, is likely to have nega-
tive effects on their structural condition. The fourth order polyno-
mial Equation 共B兲 given in Table 10 describes the variation in the
condition of pipe as a function of its depth.

Pipe Condition as Function of Its Buried Depth Pipe Condition as Function of Its Diameter
In Fig. 5共b兲, the change in pipe condition with respect to change As illustrated in Fig. 5共c兲, a dual behavior is found in the varia-
in pipe depth/cover is described. In other terms, pipe condition is tion of pipe condition with respect to its diameter. Pipes of

Table 9. Characteristics of Training Data

Parameters of the model Model output
Data Pipe length Pipe depth Pipe diameter ASTM ASTM bedding Pipe age Condition
characteristic 共m兲 共m兲 共mm兲 concrete class material class 共years兲 rating
Minimum value 2.00 2.00 200.00 3.00 2.00 27.00 1.00
Maximum value 120.00 8.00 900.00 5.00 3.00 47.00 5.00
Mean 64.30 5.00 593.80 4.00 2.50 37.00 2.40
Median 69.26 5.00 536.00 4.00 2.50 37.00 1.88
Mode 3.00 5.00 375.00 4.00 2.00 27.00 1.00
Standard deviation 33.26 1.73 204.10 0.58 0.29 5.80 1.29
Range 118.00 6.00 700.00 2.00 1.00 20.00 4.00

176 / JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010

 0.75 0.8
0.7

0.65 0.75

Normalised Condition Rating

0.6

0.55
0.7
0.5

0.45
0.65
0.4

0.35

70 80 90 100 110 120 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

a) Pipe Length (m) b) Depth (m)
0.707
0.82
0.706
0.705 0.8
Normalised Condition Rating

0.704
0.78
0.703
0.702 0.76

0.701 0.74
0.7
0.72
0.699
0.698 0.7
0.697
0.68
0.696 3 4 5
500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900
d) ASTM Concrete Class
c) Pipe Diameter (mm)
0.75 0.55

0.74 0.5
Normalised Condition Rating

0.45
0.73
0.4
0.72
0.35
0.71
0.3

0.7 0.25

0.69 0.2
25 30 35 40 45 50
2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3
e) Bedding Material Class f) Pipe Age (yrs)

Fig. 5. Variations in structural condition as function of single parameter

smaller diameters are found to be more stable as compared to the Pipe Condition as Function of Its Bedding Material
larger diameters. No adverse effect upon pipe condition is found
for increase in pipe diameter up to 600 mm. Observed at constant Type of bedding material was also found to affect the structural
values of age, length, depth, concrete class, and bedding material, condition of pipe. It was negatively affected by changing the bed-
the structural condition of pipes of diameter from 600 mm up to ding material from Classes II to III. The Linear Expression 共E兲 in
800 mm are found to be negatively impacted. However, due con- Table 10 represents this behavior.
sideration should also be given to the ratio of outer to inner di-
ameter of pipe which takes into account the thickness factor of the
Pipe Condition as Function of Its Age
pipe. Equation 共C兲 in Table 10, is the fifth order polynomial ex-
pression which best describes this behavior. The effect of aging on the condition of pipes is negative in nature,
which is described by the fifth order polynomial, Equation 共F兲,
presented in Table 10. It should be noted that there are signs of
Pipe Condition as Function of Its Material
constancy in structural condition at the early age values, which
In this study, ASTM concrete classification for rigid sewer pipes means that deterioration does not start right after installation but
共ASTM 2003兲, is used to classify pipe material. There is substan- occurs after a certain period of time.
tial impact of material change on structural condition of pipe. A It is important to point out that, the extent of variation in the
third degree polynomial relationship, Equation 共D兲, given in Table structural behavior of pipes, due to the influence of the studied
10, describes the negative effect of the change of pipe material parameter depends upon the range of the data available for that
from Concrete Classes 3–5. parameter. A review of Table 9 with respect to the range of data

JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010 / 177

Table 10. Pipe Condition Rating as Function of Single Parameter
Equation
number Parameter
A CR= f共L兲 −5.6e − 007L3 + 4.9e − 005L2 − 0.00093L + 0.7
B CR= f共d兲 3.3e − 005d4 − 0.0012d3 + 0.011d2 − 0.0092d + 0.61
C CR= f共 쏗 兲 1.5e − 006쏗5 − 0.00026쏗4 + 0.018쏗3 − 0.58쏗2 + 9.2쏗 −52
D CR= f共CC兲 1.3e − 014CC3 + 0.26CC2 − 1.5CC+ 6.2
E CR= f共BMC兲
F CR= f共A兲 1.2e − 015A5 + 2.8e − 012A4 − 2.2e − 009A3 + 8e − 007A2 − 0.00013A + 0.71
analyzed for each parameter indicates that a wide range was
available for pipe length, depth, and diameter. However, in case
of age factor a variation of 20 years was analyzed. Variation in
pipe material and bedding material was even lesser. A variation of
two intervals in pipe material out of five possible intervals
共ASTM 2003兲 affected pipe condition by 11%. Similarly varying
bedding material by only one category out of the four possible
categorized by Ontario Provincial Standard Drawings–OPSD
共Zhao and Daigle 2001兲, a variation of 5% was observed in the
structural condition of pipe. With the given ranges of variation in
pipe length, depth and age, variation of 34, 16, and 25%, respec-
tively, in the structural condition of pipe was observed. However,
with in the frame work of this study it was found that variation in
pipe diameter has negligible effect on sewer pipe structural con-
dition 共118-mm variation in diameter causing a change of 1.6% in
structural condition兲.
The developed polynomial functions Table 10, depict the im-
pact of a set of significant parameters on the structural condition
of sewer pipelines which can be useful for design engineers.
These functions simulate the structural condition of sewer pipes
as each input parameter takes different values, while keeping the
rest of the input parameters at their respective average/median
values. This can facilitate comparison of pipeline design options
and, accordingly, lead to more informed decisions.
Conclusions
A study on the structural performance of sewer pipelines and
factors that influence that performance was conducted. The study
is based on data obtained from the city of Pierrefonds, Que. The
collected data were prepared, organized, and subsequently used to
train and validate two neural network models designed to asses
the structural condition of sewer pipes. These models were sub-
sequently used to investigate the importance and influence of a set
of parameters that affect the structural condition of sewer pipe-
lines. These models were developed using: BPNN and PNN.
Three distinct categories of parameters were identified with re-
spect to their significance and influence on the structural condi-
tion of sewer pipes. Parameter impact and sensitivity analysis of
pipe condition with respect to parameters related to its structural
performance was carried out. Sewer pipe condition was expressed
as function of one parameter at a time. Structural behavior of
sewer pipelines, in terms of variation of condition rating, was
graphically represented and mathematical expressions fitting
these trends were worked out. It should be noted that material
characteristics have greatest impact on pipe condition followed by
geometric and physical attributes of the pipe. It was found that the
most important factor which influences the structural condition of
a sewer pipeline is its own material followed by bedding material
178 / JOURNAL OF PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTED FACILITIES © ASCE / MARCH/APRIL 2010
Coefficient of
determination
Mathematical function 共R2兲
0.86
0.82
0.79
0.82
0.051BMC+ 0.6 0.85
0.71
and length of the pipeline segment. Evidently, pipes with higher
grade bedding material and pipe material have better structural
performance. As expected, age has steady negative impact on
pipe condition. Increase in the buried depth of pipe has negative
effect on its structural condition. There was no impact of diameter
increase on pipe condition for pipes of diameter between 200 to
600 mm, however a subtle negative impact on pipe structural
condition was observed thereafter. In case of pipe length, a posi-
tive effect of increase in length on structural condition appeared at
70 m which continued steadily onwards up till the range of avail-
able data.
Acknowledgments
The writers are thankful to the personnel of Pierrefonds munici-
pality, Mr. Claude Cuillerier and Mr. Sylvain Marcoux, for their
interest in this research and for making available the data, used in
this study. The financial support provided for this research by
Concordia’s Faculty of Engineering and Computer Sciences and
the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of
Canada 共NSERC兲 is gratefully acknowledged.
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