Mr. Iyer is the Senior Manager of the marketing division of satyam electricals.

The monthly sales data for a key

forecasted demand for the 37th mon

Time period (months) Sales (00s) 3MA 5MA MAD(3) ERROR

1 1277
2 1273 1277
3 1145 1273
4 1231 1145 1232 1 -1
5 1178 1231 1216 38 -38
6 1138 1178 1185 1220.8 47 -47
7 1177 1138 1182 1193 5 -5
8 1276 1177 1164 1173.8 112 112
9 1136 1276 1197 1200 61 -61
10 1232 1136 1196 1181 36 36
11 1228 1232 1215 1191.8 13 13
12 1312 1228 1199 1209.8 113 113
13 1215 1312 1257 1236.8 42 -42
14 1216 1215 1252 1224.6 36 -36
15 1293 1216 1248 1240.6 45 45
16 1235 1293 1241 1252.8 6 -6
17 1379 1235 1248 1254.2 131 131
18 1352 1379 1302 1267.6 50 50
19 1246 1352 1322 1295 76 -76
20 1703 1246 1326 1301 377 377
21 1567 1703 1434 1383 133 133
22 1649 1567 1505 1449.4 144 144
23 1726 1649 1640 1503.4 86 86
24 1476 1726 1647 1578.2 171 -171
25 1636 1476 1617 1624.2 19 19
26 1697 1636 1613 1610.8 84 84
27 1625 1697 1603 1636.8 22 22
28 1578 1625 1653 1632 75 -75
29 1653 1578 1633 1602.4 20 20
30 1485 1653 1619 1637.8 134 -134
31 1506 1485 1572 1607.6 66 -66
32 1459 1506 1548 1569.4 89 -89
33 1733 1459 1483 1536.2 250 250
34 1445 1733 1566 1567.2 121 -121
35 1683 1445 1546 1525.6 137 137
36 1668 1683 1620 1565.2 48 48
1668 1599 1597.6
84.48485 852
e monthly sales data for a key component for last 36 months is shown below. Mr. Iyer would like to know the
asted demand for the 37th month?

wma
MAPE exp Sm MAPE
#N/A
1277 -4 0.003142
1275.8 -130.8 0.114236
0.000812 1209.8 21.2 1236.56 -5.56 0.004517
0.032258 1213.6 -35.6 1234.892 -56.892 0.048295
0.041301 1187.3 -49.3 1217.824 -79.8244 0.070144
0.004248 1168.6 8.4 1193.877 -16.8771 0.014339
0.087774 1165.5 110.5 1188.814 87.18604 0.068328
0.053697 1218.7 -82.7 1214.97 -78.9698 0.069516
0.029221 1186.2 45.8 1191.279 40.72116 0.033053
0.010586 1212 16 1203.495 24.50481 0.019955
0.086128 1210.8 101.2 1210.847 101.1534 0.077099
0.034568 1270.8 -55.8 1241.193 -26.1926 0.021558
0.029605 1246.7 -30.7 1233.335 -17.3348 0.014256
0.034803 1234.9 58.1 1228.134 64.86561 0.050167
0.004858 1254.3 -19.3 1247.594 -12.5941 0.010198
0.094996 1248.6 130.4 1243.816 135.1841 0.098031
0.036982 1318.6 33.4 1284.371 67.6289 0.050021
0.060995 1336.7 -90.7 1304.66 -58.6598 0.047078
0.221374 1304.4 398.6 1287.062 415.9382 0.244238
0.084876 1495.7 71.3 1411.843 155.1567 0.099015
0.087326 1543.6 105.4 1458.39 190.6097 0.115591
0.049826 1635.2 90.8 1515.573 210.4268 0.121916
0.115854 1671.1 -195.1 1578.701 -102.701 0.069581
0.011614 1585.6 50.4 1547.891 88.10913 0.053856
0.049499 1606 91 1574.324 122.6764 0.07229
0.013538 1634.5 -9.5 1611.127 13.87347 0.008538
0.047529 1648.8 -70.8 1615.289 -37.2886 0.02363
0.012099 1615.9 37.1 1604.102 48.898 0.029581
0.090236 1624.9 -139.9 1618.771 -133.771 0.090082
0.043825 1554 -48 1578.64 -72.64 0.048234
0.061001 1529.1 -70.1 1556.848 -97.848 0.067065
0.144259 1478.3 254.7 1527.494 205.5064 0.118584
0.083737 1605.4 -160.4 1589.146 -144.146 0.099755
0.081402 1534.2 148.8 1545.902 137.0981 0.081461
0.028777 1621.6 46.4 1587.031 80.9687 0.048542

0.056655 761.6 1114.406 0.063025

 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Seasonalit
y Index
January 779 845 857 917 887 4285 0.07325 1064
February 802 739 881 956 892 4270 0.072994 1060
March 818 871 937 1001 997 4624 0.079045 1148
April 888 927 1159 1142 1118 5234 0.089473 1300
May 898 1133 1072 1276 1197 5576 0.095319 1385
June 902 1124 1246 1356 1256 5884 0.100585 1461
July 916 1056 1198 1288 1202 5660 0.096755 1405
August 708 889 922 1082 1170 4771 0.081558 1185
September 695 857 798 877 982 4209 0.071951 1045
October 708 772 879 1009 1297 4665 0.079746 1158
November 716 751 945 1100 1163 4675 0.079917 1161
December 784 820 990 998 1053 4645 0.079404 1153

9614 10784 11884 13002 13214 58498

 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98127
1 9614 R Square 0.962891
2 10784 Adjusted R Squar 0.950522
3 11884 Standard Error 337.5573
4 13002 Observations 5
5 13214
ANOVA
14525 df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 8869872 8869872 77.8435 0.003068
Residual 3 341834.8 113944.9
Total 4 9211707

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 8874.2 354.0331 25.06602 0.000139 7747.509 10000.89
X Variable 1 941.8 106.745 8.822896 0.003068 602.0898 1281.51

Chart Title
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5
 Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
7747.509 10000.89
602.0898 1281.51

5
 2014 2015
January 779 845
February 802 739
March 818 871
April 888 927
May 898 1133
June 902 1124
July 916 1056
August 708 889
September 695 857
October 708 772
November 716 751
December 784 820
Zeena opened a small café in the beautiful city of Dharamshala in late 2020. Slowly the café is getting popular amo
accordingly. She would l

Average Daily sales seasonality factor

1 Oct-20 34 Oct-21 74 Oct-22 145 84.33333 0.603761
2 Nov-20 56 Nov-21 112 84 0.601375
3 Dec-20 78 Dec-21 150 114 0.816151
4 Jan-21 75 Jan-22 135 105 0.751718
5 Feb-21 45 Feb-22 110 77.5 0.55484
6 Mar-21 67 Mar-22 170 118.5 0.848368
7 Apr-21 59 Apr-22 120 89.5 0.64075
8 May-21 88 May-22 160 124 0.887743
9 Jun-21 280 Jun-22 320 300 2.147766
10 Jul-21 295 Jul-22 340 317.5 2.273053
11 Aug-21 150 Aug-22 190 170 1.217068
12 Sep-21 89 Sep-22 150 119.5 0.855527
13 Oct-21 74
14 Nov-21 112
15 Dec-21 150
16 Jan-22 135
17 Feb-22 110
18 Mar-22 170
19 Apr-22 120
20 May-22 160
21 Jun-22 320
22 Jul-22 340
23 Aug-22 190
24 Sep-22 150
25 Oct-22 145
211 126.89
139.68

210.8583
café is getting popular among the tourists and locals. The poularity of the café has encourages Zeena to invest further in the café
accordingly. She would like to study the forecasts from last 2 years

seasonality factor
56.31368
93.12 SUMMARY OUTPUT
95.57053
99.77143 Regression Statistics
81.10452 Multiple R 0.547804
Chart Title
78.97519 R Square 0.30009
400
92.07955 Adjusted R 0.269659
350
99.12774 Standard E 73.84453
130.368 300 Observatio 25
129.7814 250

123.2471 200 ANOVA

104.0295 150 df SS MS F Significance F
122.5651 100 Regression 1 53774.09 53774.09 9.861351 0.004587
186.24 50 Residual 23 125419.3 5453.015
183.7895 0 Total 24 179193.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
179.5886
198.2555 Coefficients
Column C Standard
Column J Error
t Stat P-value Lower 95%
200.3848 Intercept 56.07 30.44688 1.841568 0.078472 -6.914172
187.2804 X Variable 6.431538 2.048079 3.140279 0.004587 2.194765
180.2323
148.992
149.5786
156.1129
175.3305 SUMMARY OUTPUT
240.1613
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.847524
R Square 0.718298
Adjusted R 0.70605
Standard E 25.77835
Observatio 25

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 38971.95 38971.95 58.64647 9E-08
Residual 23 15284.04 664.5234
Total 24 54255.99
 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
Intercept 68.50168 10.62869 6.44498 1.412E-06 46.51456 90.48879
X Variable 5.475256 0.714963 7.658098 9E-08 3.996242 6.954269
a to invest further in the café and expand the space and staff

Chart Title
400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

Significance F 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
119.0542 -6.914172 119.0542
10.66831 2.194765 10.66831
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
46.51456 90.48879
3.996242 6.954269