Final of Final Submited (After Defence)

IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT BLACK SPOT FOR
PEDESTRIAN CRASHES: CASE STUDY OF NIFAS SILK LAFTO SUB CITY,

ADDIS ABABA
MSc. THESIS
WONDMAGEGN GETACHEW TEKELARGA
HAWASSA UNIVERSITY, HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA
OCTOBER, 2018
IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT BLACK SPOT FOR
PEDESTRIAN CRASHES: CASE STUDY OF NIFAS SILK LAFTO SUB CITY,
ADDIS ABABA
WONDMAGEGN GETACHEW TEKELARGA
A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
HAWASSA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,
SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES
HAWASSA UNIVERSITY
HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING
(ESPECIALIZATION: ROAD AND TRANSPORT ENGINEERING)
OCTOBER, 2018
ADVISORS’ APPROVAL SHEET
This is to certify that the thesis entitled “Identification and Analysis of Accident Black Spot
for Pedestrian Crashes: Case Study of Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City”. It is submitted in the
partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Sciences with specialization
in Road and Transport Engineering of the Graduate Program of the School of Civil
Engineering, Institute Of Technology, is a record of original research carried out by
Wondmagegn Getachew Id. №. PRG/043/08, under my supervision; and no part of the
thesis has been submitted for any other degree.
The assistance and help received during the courses of this investigation have been duly
acknowledged. Therefore, I recommended that it can be accepted as fulfilling the thesis
requirement.
Dr. Bikila Teklu _________________ ________________
Name of Major advisor Signature Date

EXAMINERS’ APPROVAL SHEET
We the undersigned, members of the board of examiners of the final open defense by
Wondmagegn Getachew have read and evaluated his thesis entitled “Identification and
Analysis of Accident Black Spot for Pedestrian Crashes: Case Study of Nifas Silk Lafto
Sub City “and examined the candidate. This is therefore to certify that the thesis has been
accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science.
Dr.___________________ _________________ ___________________
Name of the Chairperson Signature Date
Dr. Bikila Teklu __________________ ___________________
Name of Major Advisor Signature Date
Dr.___________________ __________________ ___________________
Name of Internal Examiner Signature Date
Dr.___________________ __________________ ___________________
Name of External Examiner Signature Date

DECLARATION
I, the undersigned declare that this thesis is my original work and has not been presented for
a degree in any other university and all sources of material used for this thesis have
been duly acknowledged.
Name: Wondmagegn Getachew
Signature: _________________________
Date: _____________________________
Place and date of submission: Hawassa, November, 2018

HAWASSA UNIVERSITY IOT SCHOOL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
Table of Contents Page

LIST OF TABLES ………….....…………………………………………………………..…..iv
LIST OF FIGURES ....………………………………………………………………………..vii
ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................... viii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................... ix
ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................ x
1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Statement of the problem ................................................................................................. 2
1.3. Objectives of the study ................................................................................................... 3
1.6. Limitations in conducting the study ................................................................................. 4
1.7. Organization of the thesis................................................................................................. 4
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 6
2.1. Magnitude of International Road Traffic Accident and Safety ........................................ 6
2.2. National Road Traffic Accident and Safety ..................................................................... 9
2.3. Pedestrian Traffic Situation in Addis Ababa ................................................................. 11
2.4. The factor that cause traffic accident ............................................................................. 12
2.5. Black spot identification ................................................................................................ 13
2.6. Black spot treatment ....................................................................................................... 16
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................ 18
3.1. Area description ............................................................................................................. 18
3.2. Sampling design and sample selection ........................................................................... 18
3.2.1. Sample Size ................................................................................................................. 19
3.3. Data Collection............................................................................................................... 19
3.3.1 Primary Data Collection ............................................................................................... 19
3.3.2. Secondary Data ........................................................................................................... 20
3.3.2.1. Crash data ............................................................................................................. 20
3.3.2.2. Traffic Volume data ............................................................................................. 20
3.4. Method of Data Analysis ............................................................................................... 21
3.4.1. Analysis of black spot on Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City road .......................................... 21
4.1. Analysis of Road Traffic Accident in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City roads ........................ 30
4.1.1. Distribution of road accidents by hours ...................................................................... 30
4.1.2. Distribution of Road Accidents by Day of week ........................................................ 31
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4.1.3 Distribution of accident by road characteristics ........................................................... 32

4.1.5. Distribution of accident by location (land use) ........................................................... 33
4.1.6 Drivers Factors by Sex and Age................................................................................... 34
4.1.6.1 Drivers factors by sex ............................................................................................ 34
4.1.6.2. Drivers factors by age in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City Administration ................... 36
4.1.7 Accident level based on passenger’s age ..................................................................... 37
4.1.8 Pedestrian Casualties .................................................................................................... 38
4.1.9 Accident severity on major roads in nifas silk lafto Sub-City ..................................... 40
4.2 Analysis of questioners result ......................................................................................... 41
4.2.2. Frequency tables of both driver and pedestrian response ........................................... 42
4.3. Identification and analysis of black spot on Nifas Silk Lafto road ................................ 47
4.3.1. Analysis of accident black spot (section) .................................................................... 47
4.3.2.1. Traffic accident priority ranking for nifas silk lafto sub city road section ........... 54
4.3.3. Analysis of black spot with Empirical Bayesian methods .......................................... 54
4.4. Engineering Measures for Black Spots ......................................................................... 55
4.4.1. Evaluation of black spot for Hana Mariam intersection ............................................. 55
4.4.3 German junction ........................................................................................................... 60
4.4.4 Evaluation of black spot for Gabriel to Lafto 4 leg intersection .................................. 62
4.4.5. Evaluation of black spot for kera to gofa junction ...................................................... 63
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................... 65
5.1 .Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 65
5.2. Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 67
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 69
APPENDIX ............................................................................................................................... 72
Appendix A-1 Questionnaires Form ..................................................................................... 72
Experience of Driver ............................................................................................................. 72
General Information of drivers.............................................................................................. 72
Experience for Pedestrian and safety perception .................................................................. 73
General information of pedestrians ....................................................................................... 73
Appendices A-2 Police accident report data. ........................................................................ 74
Appendix B-1 Traffic data and black spot location. ............................................................. 80
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LIST OF TABLES Page

Table 2.1 accident situation and remedial measures ......................................................…...16
Table 3.1 Base condition of signalized intersection ………………………………….…....26
Table 3.2AMF pedestrian collision of signalized intersection ………………….……….…27
Table 3.3 AMF for different junction type parameter ………………………..…………….27
Table 4.1Chi-square Test Calculation Results………………………………………………35
Table 4.2 Sex of driver * Accident level Cross tabulation …………………………...……. .35
Table 4.3 chi-square based on driver age ………………………………………………….....36
Table 4.4 Driver accident level by percent…………………………………………………...37
Table 4.5 passenger causality by percent……………………………………………………37
Table 4.6 Chi-square test result of age of pedestrian victims and observed frequency of
Accident……………………………………………………………………………………...39
Table 4.7 accident level based on age category for pedestrian ……………………………….40
Table 4.8 Demographic data of pedestrians and drivers………………………………….......41
Table 4.9 the frequently do you drive to reach destination while pass through intersection and
roundabout per day……………………………………………………………………....42
Table 4.10 the driving behavior change when you enter to signalized intersection or
roundabout from a main road …………………………………………………………….....43
Table 4.11 the slowdown enter to any intersection or roundabout ………………………....43
Table 4.12 Communicate with pedestrian, bicyclists, or other drivers in a non-verbal manner
(e.g. eye contact, hand gestures) at roundabout and intersection …...…… …………….…44
Table 4.13 as a driver, have you ever had a collision with a pedestrian at intersection and
roundabout …………………………………………………………………………………44
Table 4.14 the frequently do you walk to reach destinations crossing roundabout and
intersection per day………………………………………………………………………....45
Table4.15 As a pedestrian, have you ever had a collision with a car at roundabout and
intersection...…...……………………………………………………………………………45
Table 4.16 as a pedestrian, are you feel safe waiting on Pedestrian Island at roundabout and
intersection..............................................................................................................................46
Table4.17 As a pedestrian, are you feel safe crossing the lane at roundabout and
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intersection..46
Table 4.18 When pedestrians crossing through zebra crossing of roundabout and
intersection they believed to give attention ………………………………………………....46
Table 4.19 Guardrails important in terms of safety when pedestrian walking through sidewalks
of roundabout, intersection and any crossing refuge………………………………………....47
Table: 4.20 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident frequency method for road
section for pedestrian accident…………………………………………………………….…47
Table: 4.21NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident frequency method for
intersection for pedestrian accident……………………………………………………….….48
Table: 4.22NSLsub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident rate method
For road section ……………………………………………………………………………...48
Table: 4.23: NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident rate method for
intersection…………………………………………………………………………………..49
Table: 4.24 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using average accident rate method for
Intersection…………………………………………………………………………………..50
Table: 4.25NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using critical rate method for
intersection…………………………………………………………………………………..51
Table: 4.26 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using critical rate method for road
section………………………………………………………………………………………..51
Table 4.27 average crash frequency for road segment per reference population…………..…52
Table 4.28 the reference population average crash and variance for road segment………..….52
Table 4.29 Adjusted Observed Crash Frequency and Potential for Improvement for road
segment………………………………………………………………………………….. .....54
Table 4.30: EB regression method for PI…………………………………………………..…55
Table A-2-31 Distribution of traffic accident by hours for 2005-2009 year………………….75
Table A-2-32 Distribution of traffic accident by age group 2005-2009 year………………....75
Table A-2-33 Distribution of traffic accident by day for 2005-2009 year………………….....76
Table: - A-2-34 Distribution of traffic accident by sex group 2005-2009 year……………..76
Table A-2-35 Distribution of traffic accident by accident location area 2005-2009 year …..77
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Table A-2-36 Distribution of traffic accident by road intersection and junction 2005-2009
year…………………………………………………………………………………………..78
Table A-2-37 Summarized causality for driver, passenger and pedestrian victims……..……78
Table:-A-2-38 Distribution of traffic accident by road direction 2005-2009 year…………....79
Table A-2-39 Distribution of traffic accident by road direction 2005-2009 year…………......75
Table B-1-40Traffic volume growth rate forecasting table……………………………….…80
Table B-1-41 Percentage distribution of the traffic flow in each road segment nifas silk lafto
Sub city Administration…………………………………………………………………..…81
Table B-1-42 Summary of intersection and roundabout in nifas silk lafto sub city AADT….82
Table B-1-43 NSL sub city EB regression method for PI…………………………..……….84
Table B-1- 44 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using critical rate method ………….85
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LIST OF FIGURES Page

Figure 1.1: accident data in 2009 E.C. (sources from Addis Ababa police commission)….3
Figure: - 2. 1. Top 10 cause of death among people aged 15-29 years, 2012 ………….......…6
Figure: - 2.2. Population, Road traffic death and registered motorized vehicle by country
income status ……………………….………………………………………………….……...7
Figure:-2.3 .Road traffic fatality rate per 100,000 population, by WHO region…….………..8
Figure:-2.4.Trends in reported traffic death in Ethiopia ………………………………….......9
Figure: - 2.5 Ethiopian traffic accidents in all cases……………………………………........10
Figure: - 2.6 Ethiopian traffic accident death reports………………………………………...10
Figure:-2.7 Traffic accident death by road user category …………………………………...11
Figure: - 3.1Addis Ababa Nifas silk lafto sub city road network maps …………….……..…18
Figure: 4.1 Distribution of road accidents by hours……………………………......................30
Figure: 4.2 Distribution of road accidents by days………………………………………......31
Figure 4.3 Distribution accident by road type………….………………………………..........32
Figure 4.4 Distribution accident by number of lane ………………………………….……....33
Figure 4.5 Distribution of accident by location……………………………………………...34
Figure 4.6 Accident distribution by sex……………………………………………………....40
Figure: 4.7 Hana Mariam 4 leg intersection……………………………………………….....57
Figure: 4.8 Hana Mariam to kadisco leg…………………………………………………...…57
Figure: - 4.9 For Hana Mariam intersection recommended measure…………………………59
Figure: 4.10 Garment roundabout …………………………………………………………...60
Figure: 4.11Germany round about leg…………………………………………………….….62
Figure: 4.12 photo Gabriel to Lafto 4 leg intersection……………………………………….63
Figure: 4.13 photo kera to gofa junction……………………………………………..............64
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ACRONYMS
AACRA: Addis Ababa City Road Authority
AADT: Annual Average Daily Traffic
ADT: Average Daily Traffic
AANSLSC: Addis Ababa Nifas Silk Laft Sub City
AAP: Addis Ababa Police
AATA: Addis Ababa Transport Authority
AATP: Addis Ababa Traffic Police
NSLSCTP: Nifas Silk Laft Sub City Traffic Police
NSLSCP: Nifas Silk Laft Sub City Police
CS: Collector Straight
CSA: Central Statistics Authority
FP: Federal Police
GIS: Geographical Information System
PAS: Principal Arterial Straight
RTASE: Road Traffic Accident Safety Evaluation
SAS: Sub Arterial Straight
UN: United Nation
WHO: World Health Organization
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
First of all, I would like thanks to God for everything. Then I am deeply grateful to my major
advisor Dr. Bikila Teklu, for his encouragement, suggestions, guidance and overall assistance
for the completion of my thesis. Moreover, this study would not have been possible without the
financial support of Ethiopian Road Authority. Thus, I would like to say thanks to Ethiopian
Road Authority for their financial support to undertake this research.
Last but not least, I would like to my deepest thanks to all my brother and my friends for your
generous support without you the completion of this work would not have been possible.
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ABSTRACT
Pedestrian safety is a critical issue in Ethiopia. Reports show that 50 to 60% of traffic fatality
victims in the country are pedestrians. Therefore, the issue of road Pedestrian safety is a major
concern in transportation engineering in Addis Ababa city Administration. Hence, this study was
aimed to identify black spot areas more focus on pedestrian’s crashes occurs in Nifas Silk Lafto
Sub-City of the Addis Ababa City Administration. Identifying dangerous sites based on the
selected performance measure which is empirical basin method of commonly called potential
for safety improvement. It is also defined as the positive difference between estimate and the
normal number of accident expected from such types of sites of the study area to identify and
rank road sites. Accordingly, the road and traffic data were collected from field investigation and
Addis Ababa road authority and accident data also gathered from police stations. By analyzing
these data, ten road segments, four intersections and three round about road sites were analyzed.
The result indicated that road sections are Hana Mariam junction to kadisco, German Gabriel
to Lafto intersection, kera three leg intersection to Goffa junction and German junction to German
Gabriel were highly prone to accidents with potential for safety improvement values. The worst
junctions were Hana Mariam 4 leg intersection, Garment roundabout and German roundabout
with potential for safety improvement values of 39.13, 23.03 and 5.48 respectively. Values of
potential for safety improvement indicate that these sections and junctions need urgent attention
to prioritize, evaluate and to reduce road pedestrian traffic accident and increase safety
performance. Using traffic signs, refuge at zebra crossing, marking zebra crossing, constructing
side walkway, widening of the pavement, streetlights, installation of marking and signs, and some
areas also consider adequate median road marking could be implemented to minimize the
pedestrian crashes.
Key word: AADT, black spot, HSM, Nifas Silk Laft Sub City, pedestrian crash, PI, traffic safety.
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
Road traffic accidents (RTAs) constitute major health, economic, and developmental
challenges of developing countries, especially adversely affected sub Saharan African
Countries (Chen, 2009). In 1999, for instance, 750,000-880,000 people died in road traffic
crashes of which, about 85% of these occurred in developing countries (Downing et al.,
2000) and in 2002 an estimated 1.2 million people were killed in road traffic crashes
( WHO,2009; UNECA, 2009); 90% of the traffic crashes occurred in low and middle income
countries of which Sub-Saharan countries had faced the highest fatality rate (28.3 per 100,000
population),which is substantially higher than any continent in the world (Paden et al., 2004).
In Ethiopia, the situation has been worsened as the number of vehicles has increased
consequently due to increased traffic flow and conflicts between vehicles and pedestrians
(Guy, 2013). Despite government efforts in the road development, road crashes remain to be
one of the critical problems of the road transport sector in Ethiopia (UNECA, 2009). Every
year, many lives are lost and huge property is destroyed due to road traffic accidents in
the country. The Country has experienced average annual road accidents of 8115 for the
past 11 years ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 E . C ) (CSA, 2010).
In financial terms, Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, loosest least 400
million Birr each year due to road accidents, which was 12 million Birr per year on average,
15 years ago and was the third killing vector (Faneuil, 2006). Currently, the financial
estimation of property damage (excluding human deaths and injuries), is more than 15
million Ethiopian birr annually on average (CSA, 2010).
According to UNECA (2009), the rate of traffic accident death in 2007/08 was 95 per 10,000
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motor vehicles, which put the country on the extreme high side of the international road
safety scene.
Consequently, the city of Addis Ababa has taken the lion’s share of the road accidents.
For instance, from the road crashed of 9,301 in Ethiopia during 2001/02 period, about
2,071(29%) were in Addis Ababa. According to the police reports, the total number of motor
vehicle traffic accidents in Addis Ababa during the year 2000 – 2005 was about 44,000 and
out of 15884 total road traffic accidents occurred in the country in 2010/11, about 7882(28%)
was in Addis Ababa (CSA, 2012). Therefore, understanding of road pedestrian traffic
accidents and identifying black spots has paramount importance to implement remedial
solution for these sever problems. In light of these, in this research it is tried to assess and
avail information on road pedestrian traffic accidents and black spots of the Addis Ababa City
administration, considering Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-city in particular.
1.2. Statement of the problem
According to the WHO (2009), pedestrian fatal crashes accounted for 60% of deaths
that occurred amongst road users. Report from Addis Ababa police commission shows that
on average 86% of road traffic fatal crash victims in a year are pedestrians (2005 to 2009 E.C).
In Addis Ababa ten sub-city from these ten sub city highest accident in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-
city based on traffic accident from 2005-2009 E.C. According to Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City
Traffic Police data, 54, 57, 70 fatal accident statistics occurred in the years of 2007, 2008 and
2009 respectively (AAPC, 2009).This problem is continuing and it may more difficult in the
future due to the rapid growth of population and vehicle numbers in Addis Ababa.
In order to tackle this problem, it was essential to assess and avail information on road
pedestrian traffic accidents and black spots of the Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City road segments
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and junctions.
80
70
60 66 70
50 64
40 54
45
30
32 35
20 30
10 18 24
0
Figure 1.1: Fatal Road Accident data in 2009. (Source: AAPC, 2009)
1.3. Objectives of the study
1.3.1. General objective
The general objective of the study was to identify black spot areas more focus on pedestrian’s
crashes occurs in Addis Ababa.
1.3.2. Specific objectives
To examine the magnitude of road traffic accidents in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City.
To identify locations with abnormal high number of road traffic accident black
spot areas in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City roads.
To propose easily implementable engineering measures for the identified black
spot areas.
To estimate the average crash frequency of vehicle-pedestrian collision per year
based on Empirical Bayesian method.
1.4. Research question
This study was to answer the following questions:
 How are the magnitude of road traffic accidents?
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 Where high number of road traffic accident frequency occur in the study area
roads?
 What are the possible black spot treatment for the identified black spot areas
in the study area?
1.5. Significance of the study
The study will add knowledge on understanding the risk factors contribute to the occurrence
of pedestrian road traffic accidents and related injuries in a restricted risk area in Addis Ababa,
Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City. The result of this study can be used to evaluating road safety
measures. It will be also indispensable for policy makers and scientific communities by aware
about the road.
1.6. Limitations in conducting the study
Be shortage of teamwork and unwillingness from the concerned bodies in collecting and
providing data (officials and officers)
Knowledge gap by professionals who participate on the traffic accident issue and a
Scientific ways of measurement using on collecting, organizing and analyzing of data.
Be shortage of data quality and quantity.
1.7. Organization of the thesis
The report is organized in five chapters that are linked to the issues in relation to the
Study: the scope of the thesis location was limited on identification and analysis accident
black spot for pedestrians crashes case study of Nifas Silk Lafto sub city roads and it also
includes information from various sources relating to the study.
Chapter one gives the background of the study, problem statement and states the most
important objective of the study.
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Chapter two literature review of road traffic accident and pedestrian traffic safety related
to the study. Chapter three gives the description of the methodology used in the study,
data collection mechanism and way of study on road traffic accident aspects. Chapter four
presents the result and discussion related road traffic accident and pedestrian traffic safety.
Finally chapter five contains the conclusions and recommendations on road traffic accident
and pedestrian traffic safety.
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2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Magnitude of International Road Traffic Accident and Safety
Road traffic injuries claim more than 1.2 million lives each year and have a huge impact on
health and development. They are the leading cause of death among young people aged
between 15 and 29 years, and cost governments approximately 3% of GDP (WHO, 2015).
Figure 2.1 Top 10 cause of death among people aged 15-29 years, 2012
(Source: WHO Global status report on road safety, 2015).
WHO Estimated that the overall global road traffic fatality rate is 18 per 100,000 population.
However, middle-income countries have the highest annual road traffic fatality rates, at 20.1 per
100 000, while the rate in high-income countries is lowest, at 8.7 per 100, 000 (WHO, 2013).
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Figure: - 2.2. Population, Road traffic death and registered motorized vehicle by country
income status
(Source: WHO. Global status report on road safety, 2015)
A recent Global Road Safety Partnership (GRSP) study shows that about 10 percent of global
road deaths in 1999 took place in Sub-Saharan Africa where only 4 percent of global vehicles
are registered in the Region. Conversely, in the entire developed world, with 60 per cent of all
globally registered vehicles, only 14 percent of road deaths occurred.
According to a recent TRL report, the adjusted true estimate of total road deaths for all Sub-
Saharan African countries for the year 2000 ranges between 68,500 and 2,200. (GRSP, April
2005). Road traffic death rates in low- and middle-income countries are more than double
those in high income countries (WHO, 2015).
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Figure:-2.3 .Road traffic fatality rate per 100,000 population by WHO region
(Source: WHO Global status report on road safety 2015)
African countries had the highest mortality rate, with 28.3 deaths per 100 000 populations
(WHO, 2010). According to WHO African region 2010 report, the African Region remains
the least motorized 2%, but suffers the highest rates of road traffic fatalities (16%). The
regional average is 24.1 deaths per 100,000 populations. Nigeria and South Africa have the
highest fatality rates (33.7 and 31.9 deaths per 100,000 populations per year, respectively) in
the region and 38 % of all African road traffic deaths occur among pedestrians (WHO, 2013).
Study done in 2009 showed that 59.96 per 100, 000 injured and 10.13 were lost their life due
to in RTA Kenya (WHO, 2013).
Paper Prepared for Mid-term Review of RSDP shows that Ethiopia is also possesses one of
the highest accident records in the world. To reverse this trend, few uncoordinated efforts are
being made few organizations including the ERA, NRSCO, Road Transport Authority, Federal
Police and the Association of Ethiopian Insurers.
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Figure:-2.4.Trends in reported traffic death in Ethiopia
Source: Paper Prepared for Mid-term Review of RSDP II April 2005
2.2. National Road Traffic Accident and Safety
Ethiopia is one of those rising countries with low level of income accompanied by high rate of
population growth and high number of traffic accident. As part of the developing world,
Ethiopia is mostly an important country with low level of urbanization. The economic
performance of different sectors of the national economy is not pleased. This low performance
is due to a number of limitations such as low level of investment in different sectors of the
national economy. According to the Ethiopian federal police commission report the estimated
five year traffic accident shown on figure number 2.5.

13874
12397
11102
10637
8619
Figure:- 2.5 Ethiopian traffic accidents in all cases

Source: Federal police commission annual report from (2001-2005)
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This report shows that the traffic accident increased from time to time. As figure 2.5 indicated,
accident number increased by more than 1000 within the past five years according to
federal police report.
Similarly the number of fatality increased tremendously as shown below on figure 2.6.
3470
3290
2830
2640
2250
Figure: - 2.6 Ethiopian traffic accident death reports
Source: Federal police commission annual report from (2001-2005)
Each governmental institution responsible for traffic safety fall within the transport ministry
with other government departments such as police, justice, health, planning and education
having some responsibility for key areas. Experience of several countries indicates that
effective strategies for reducing traffic injury have a greater chance of being applied if there is
a separate government agency with the power and budget to plan and implement its
programmed.
Informed and committed politicians are essential to achieving government commitment to road
safety, since they authorize policies, programmers and budgets. They also play central roles in
developing road safety legislation.
According to the federal police commission report, pedestrians and passenger are the
highly likely victims of fatality accidents as shown in figure 2.7 below. Most accidents
occur because drivers do not give priority to pedestrians.
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Hence, major work needs to be done by concerned Organizations to safeguard the safety of
passengers and pedestrians and save lives.
percent of causality
2% 4%
5
7 6%
5 9%
5
7 57%
22%
Pedestrian passengers drivers Motor cyclist cyclist Others
Figure:-2.7 Traffic accident death by road user category
Source: Federal police commission annual report (2007)
In general, some study indicates that the main causes of the accidents at the black spot areas
were unavailability of proper pedestrian facilities, pedestrian traffic volume, drivers’ fatigue,
lack of awareness of traffic rules and regulation and violation of speed limit in accordance to
the experimental study by the National Road Safety Coordination Office.
Besides, densities of accidents per kilometer were found to be a function of access points in
towns. Narrow bridge, inadequate sight distance, insufficient illumination, road curvature, and
faded road markings are usually the major causes of accidents (Getu , 2007).
2.3. Pedestrian Traffic Situation in Addis Ababa
Report from Addis Ababa police commission shows that on average 86% of road traffic fatal
crash victims in a year are pedestrians (2005 to 2007E.C). If the city intended to improve road
traffic safety it is obvious than pedestrian safety must be given a top priority.
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Study made on Kazan chis area revealed that the vehicle composition of traffic in streets Addis
Ababa during afternoon peak hour is found to be 73%, 22%, 2%, 1.6% and 1.2% for cars,
minibuses, buses, trucks, and motorcycles respectively (Traffic safety and management
division ,Addis Ababa city transport programs management office, 2016)
International road assessment program (iRAP) made assessment of 114km roads in Addis
Ababa and found that most of the road sections assessed are not safe for pedestrians.
2.4. The factor that cause traffic accident
The causes of traffic accidents are: road, the driver, the road user, vehicle, and
environmental factors. According to Roman, K. (1985), studies from the American and British
reports; accidents occurred 57% due to driver factor, 27% due to combined roadway
and driver factor, 6% combined vehicles and deriver factor ,3% a combination of the
road, drivers, vehicles ,2% vehicle factor ,1% combined of vehicle and road user factor.
Road network in Africa is expanding fast, and similarly maintenance standards are
improved resulting the safe standard of the road. However, in Ethiopia, due to lack of
trainings on the subject area, contribution of roads and environment to traffic accidents are
under estimated.
2.4.1. Relationship between Traffic accident and Geometric characteristics
Study on the Washington shows that relationship between the number of lanes and the crash
rate has been developed, which suggests that as the number of lanes increases, the crash rate
decreases (Lundy R, 1965).results have also been found for the relationships between crash
rates and lane widths. Based on the results of an extensive literature review on the safety
aspects of two-lane roads, an inverse relationship was found between crashes and pavement
12 | P a g e
width in that crash rates tend to decrease with increasing pavement width (Choueiri, E. M., R.
Lamm, J. H. Kloeckner, and T. Mailaender. 1994).
In the Addis Ababa- Shasemene road also shows that 52 % of the accidents occurred at tangent
and level sections of the road similarly, 48 per cent occurred on horizontal curves or grades.
This is associated with speed limit violation. The results of the study indicated increase in
accident with grade and sharpness of curves. AADT, numbers of lanes and grade have positive
relationships with accident rates i.e. the section with less traffic, lanes and grades resulted in
less accident rates whenever these variables increased. Whereas, sharp curves resulted in
highest accident rate as compared to gentle curves. However, the number of lanes increased
with that of accident rates because of the non-existence of pedestrian facilities in town sections
(Getusegni, 2007).
2.5. Black spot identification
The term “black spot” (or “hot spot”) is used to describe locations that have a higher than
average crash rate and has been a standard safety engineering methodology for over 30 years.
The identiﬁcation, analysis and treatment of black spots are widely regarded as an effective
approach to road crash prevention (Elvik, et.al, 1997).
In most developed countries, by taking simple countermeasures, accidents are reduced to
40 to 50% and in some areas to 80%. Human error is the major causal factor in road accidents.
However, engineering measures and planning improvements, such as, traffic signals,
pedestrians' crossings, junction layouts, and speed control humps can affect road user behavior
in such a way that errors are less likely to happen, or when they do happen, the environment
can make them less serious (TRL).
13 | P a g e
Evaluation of the Iowa DOT’s Safety Improvement Candidate List Process stated that the most
frequently used methods to identify and prioritize candidate high crash locations include the
Crash Frequency Method, Crash Rate Method, Rate-Quality-Control Method, and Bayesian
Approach. Each of these methods is explained in the following sections.
 Accident frequency method
This Method uses the number of accidents at a location to identify its safety performance
(Layton, 1996; McMillen, 1999). Locations with more than a predetermined number of
accidents are classified as high-accident locations. But, the shortcoming is, the difference of
road and traffic conditions were not taken into account.
 Accident rate method
This method uses accident numbers divided by vehicle number to provide rates such as
accidents per million entering vehicles per spot location and accidents per million vehicle-Km
for sections of highways (Layton, 1996; McMillen, 1999). Locations with higher than a
predetermined rate are classified as high accident locations. But, the shortcoming is that
accident rate value is high in the section where traffic number value and accident number value
are low. Another shortcoming is that accident rate value is low in the section where traffic
number value and accident number value are high.
 Quality control methods
This is the method that is used for section of black spot segments and junction (Homburger,
1996; Layton, 1996; Traffic Institute, 2000). The logic of this method is that a location is
considered to be a black spot if its safety parameter shows higher values than the critical value.
They assured control of the quality of the analysis by applying a statistical test.
14 | P a g e
This is based on the assumption that occurrences of traffic accident follow the Poisson
distribution. Several parameters can be used such as accident rate, accident frequency, and
accident severity.
For example, when using accident rate as a parameter, the locations with an accident rate that
is greater or significantly greater than the average accident rate for the similar region are
pointed out. In other words, the locations with accident rate greater than the critical rate are
classified as a black spot location.
 Empirical Bayesian Method
The use of the Empirical Bayesian (EB) method for crash prediction seems to have become
widely accepted as one that yields the most unbiased estimate of the expected crash frequency.
The EB method increases the precision of crash frequency estimation and corrects for the
regression-to mean bias (Hauer et al., 2002). The EB model assumes that the number of
observed crashes on a road section or intersection is distributed according to the Negative
Binomial distribution. Using a weight factor, the historical crash record and the expected crash
frequency are combined to obtain a more accurate estimate of the safety performance at a
location. The weight factor depends on the magnitude of the crash record and on the reliability
of the crash prediction models.
15 | P a g e
2.6. Black spot treatment
In most developed countries, by taking simple countermeasures, accidents are reduced to 40
to 50% and in some areas to 80%. Human error is the major causal factor in road
accidents. However, engineering measures and planning improvements, such as, traffic
signals, pedestrians' crossings, junction layouts, and speed control humps can affect road user
behavior in such a way that errors are less likely to happen, or when they do happen some
of the common types of remedial measures are stated in Table 2.1
Table 2.1 Accident situation and remedial measure
General accident situation Remedial measure
Skidding Restoring surface texture
Collision with roadsides obstruction - Better delineation
- Guardrails
- Safety fences
- guide posts
- Pedestrian /vehicle
Pedestrian /vehicle conflicts -Pedestrian /vehicle segregation
- Facilities for pedestrians
- Pedestrian protection
Loss of control - Road marking
- Delineation
- Speed control
Darkness - Reflection signs
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- Delineation
- Road markings
- Street light
General accident situation remedial measure
Intersection
Turning Movement - Channelization
- Signals
- Turn prohibitions
- Round about
Overtaking - Channelization
- Markings
Pedestrian /vehicle conflict - Refuges
- Crossing facilities
- Underpass/ over bridges
- Guardrails /fences
Parked vehicles - Parking controls
- parking provision
17 | P a g e
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1. Area description
The study site is located in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City. The Sub city covers a total area of 68.30
km2 making it the third largest sub city in Addis Ababa. Population density of Nifas Silk Lafto
is 4,915.7 person/km2 with a total population of 335,740 (Socio-Economic profile of Addis
Ababa city, 2015).
As shown in Figure 3.1, the selecting road section from Gofa junction to Hana Mariam route
about 9.6 km.
gofa to hanamariam route

red colour
Figure 3.1: Addis Ababa, Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City the selected route maps
Source: Google map (2017)
3.2. Sampling design and sample selection
For the sake of making sample route from Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City; accident black spots were
identified based on the frequency of vehicle traffic accident statistics collected from recorded
of Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City traffic police (NSLSCTP) from 2005 to 2009 EC, then 10 road
segments and 7 intersections were selected for main roads of SAS and PAS types of road.
18 | P a g e
3.2.1. Sample Size
The sample size of questioner survey was determined by using the following equation.
n = p ̂ *q̂ (Zα/2⁄E) 2……………………………………………………………. (3.1)
Where,
Zα/2=1.96
α=1- confidence interval
P ̂ = sample proportion
q̂ =1- p ̂
Zα/2 = 95% of confidence interval
E= 5% maximum error of the estimate
Statistician assign the values p ̂ =0.5 and q ̂ =0.5 (Bluman, 2009).
Based on above formula about 384 respondents were selected for each pedestrian and driver.
3.3. Data Collection
3.3.1. Primary Data Collection
The primary data were obtained from field observation and questionnaires.
 Firstly English language questioners were interpreted to Amharic language and then
384 questionnaires distributed to each individual pedestrian and driver.
 Road data were taken from AACRA as-built drawing of the road plan. Then the actual
measurements and visual inspection were conducted on the road site. The gathered
road data consisted of Lane width, Shoulder width, Number of intersection legs,
Median width, Number of lane crossed by pedestrians and Number of through lane.
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3.3.2. Secondary Data
The secondary data were collected from, Addis Ababa City Road Authority, Addis Ababa
Traffic Police Commission, Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City Traffic Police and the Central Statistical
Agency, as well as other relevant published and unpublished information sources.
3.3.2.1. Crash data
The crash data were collected from Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City Traffic Police commission. The
crash data contained; day and time of accident, driver sex, age and education, accident type
and also number of victims (driver, passenger, and pedestrian), sex, age, severity; and location
of accident.
3.3.2.2. Traffic Volume data
Traffic studies in this research to take the past traffic data were required to determine current
and future traffic volume to use the different road section and intersection. Traffic Volume
data and number of volume of pedestrian per day was collected from AACRA, that secondary
data were used as the representative traffic volume on the section.
Traffic growth rate forecasting
To determine the forecasted annual average daily traffic (AADT) for design period of
the previous years, the average Ethiopian traffic growth rate given by World Bank (8%) for
small vehicle and 17% for truck by average was used.
AADT (2022) = AADT (2011) *(1+i) n…………………………………………… (3.2)
Where,
i - Traffic growth rate for each vehicles
n - Number of years the following years.
AADT – annual average daily traffic
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3.4. Method of Data Analysis
3.4.1. Analysis of black spot on Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City road
To identify black spots by reference to a clearly defined population of roadway elements, it is
obviously necessary to make a detailed division and classification of the entire road network
into different roadway elements. The division and classification was vary from country to
country and also from region to region. For instance, PAS and SAS had used for Addis Ababa
road classification (Dawit, 2008). This study was covered detail black spot identification for
five (5) years using counts from daily traffic accident record book. This study mostly focused
on identification of problems that are likely to be treatable through road engineering.
From this point of view, the first thing was to identify black spots location and take safety
action with different safety measurement ways.
For identification of black spot are often located at nodes of the road network .i.e. At crossing
points between two or more roads. There are were several types of nodes that should be
distinguished as they have different safety performance.
Conventional intersection in this study were (Cross, T, Y).
 Four-leg junctions
 Three-leg junctions
 Roundabouts
 Straight sections of a specified length avoid bullet
Method of the studies on black spot identification was given as follows. The study start from
data was collected from different institutions and complies with a scientific way to make
it easily understandable for anyone.
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The study conducts the following different methods to diagnose the black spot.
1) Accident frequency method;
2) Accident rate method
3) Critical accident rate
4) Empirical Bayesian method.
Accident frequency method
Accident frequency is the simplest determination criteria, each accident was located at its point
of occurrence on the road network and the total number of accidents reported at each site was
added up.
Frp =ƩFj/n ……………………………………………….................................................. (3.3)
Ir = 2*Frp …………………………………………………………………………….....… (3.4)
Where,
Fj = accident frequency at the site j of a reference population.
Frp = average accident frequency
n= number of site
Ir = minimum accident frequency that warrants a detailed safety analysis.
Accident rate
Accident rate is a ratio between a number of accidents and an exposure measure.
Rj =ƩFj * 106 / (365.25*pLjQ, for the accident rate for the reference population …….....… (3.5)
Rrp= ƩFj * 106 / (365.25*PƩLjQw ……………………………………………………..….. (3.6)
Qw = Ʃ (Qj * Lj)/ƩLj …………………………………………………………………….… (3.7)
IR = 2*Rrp ………………………………………………………....................................... (3.8)
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Where:-
Rj = accident rate of site (acc/Mveh-km)
Rrp = Average accident rate (acc/Mveh-km)
Fj = accident frequency at site j
P =period of analysis (year)
Lj = section length of site j (km)
ƩLj = Total length of section j (km)
Qj = average annual daily traffic of site j(AADT)
Qw = weighted average annual daily traffic (AADT)
Ir = minimum accident frequency that warrants a detailed safety analysis
Critical accident rate
It comprise the accident rate at a site with the average accident rate calculation in a group of
site having similar character and also comparing the accident rate and accident rate at each site
.A detail safety analysis is justified when the accident rate is higher than the critical
rate. We concluded the location is hazardous site.
Rcj = Rrp +k*(Rrp *106/365*p*Lj*Qj)1/2 +1*106/2*365*p*Lj*Qj ……………………...…..(3.9)
Where,
Rcj = critical accident rate at site j (acc/Mveh-km)
Rrp = Average accident rate at similar site (acc/Mveh-km)
K = stastical constant
1.036 For a level of confidence of 85%
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P =period of analysis (year)
Lj = section length of site j (km) and Qj = average annual daily traffic of site j (AADT)
EB method of moment
EB method of moment required calculating the populations mean accident frequency
and its variance; those two statistics are then used to adjust the accident frequency at the site.
fEBj =fj +frp/S2 (frp – fj) ……………………………………………………………..…...(3.10)
frp = Ʃfj/n ………………………………………………………….……………….…..…(3.11)
S2 = Ʃ(fj –frp)/n-1 …………………………………………………………………..…….(3.12)
PIj = fEBj – fj …………………………………………………………………………….. (3.13),
using to calculate potential improvement (PI) at each site.
Where,
fEBj = EB adjusted accident frequency at site j
frp = average accident frequency (reference population)
fj = accident frequency at site j
n = number of sites
S2 = variance of accident frequency (reference population)
PIj = potential improvement at each site.
EB regression method
Empirical Bayesian regression method is founded to be the most suitable to identify and
analyze black spots. This method also used to account the pedestrian volume. This screening
method was used by Mandefro (2015). Hence, to give the better recommendation to create a
24 | P a g e
safe traffic road (HSM, 2008) and the other method is also used for shortage of availability
data in road segment in order to analysis by these method.
Step 1 predicted average crash frequency for base condition
Npedbase = Exp(a+b*ln(AADTtot) +c*ln(AADTmin/AADTmaj) +d*ln(pedVol) +e*nlanes x) ………………..…... (3.14)
For 3 leg signalized intersection
Npedbase = Exp(-6.6+0.05*ln(AADTtot) +0.24*ln(AADTmin/AADTmaj) +0.41*ln(pedVol) +0.09*nlanes x) ……….…(3.15)
For 4 leg signalized intersection
Npedbase = Exp(-9.53+0.4*ln(AADTtot) +0.26*ln(AADTmin/AADTmaj) +0.45*ln(pedVol) +0.04*nlanes x) ………..…(3.16)
Where,
Npedbase= predicted number of vehicle-pedestrian collisions per year for base conditions at
signalized intersections.
AADTtot = sum of the average daily traffic volumes (vehicles per day) for the major and minor
roads (= AADTmaj + AADTmin);
PedVol = sum of daily pedestrian volumes (pedestrians/day) crossing all intersection legs
nlanesx= maximum number of traffic lanes crossed by a pedestrian in any crossing manoeuvre
at the intersection.
a,b,c,d,e = regression coefficients.
The AMF for the SPF base condition absence of bus stops, no presence of school and Absence
of alcohol Sales establishments near to intersection has a value of 1.00
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Table 3.1 base condition for signalized intersection
Data input Base condition
Number of bus stops within 305m of the Absence of bus stops near to intersection
intersection
Presence of schools within 305m the No school present
intersection
Number of alcohol sales establishments Absence of alcohol Sales establishments
with 305m of the intersection near to intersection.
Pedestrian volume per day crossing Up to 34,200 P/day for sum of all legs.
all leg intersection
4SG intersection pedestrian model of AADTmaj =80,200 V/day
AADT. AADTmin = 49,100 V/day
Source: highway safety manual
Step 2 Accident modification factor for each road parameter
The AMF for the SPF base condition of each geometric design or traffic control feature has a
value of 1.00. Any feature associated with higher crash frequency than the base condition has
an AMF with a value greater than 1.00. Any feature associated with lower crash frequency
than the base condition has an AMF with a value less than 1.00.
26 | P a g e
Table 3.2 AMF for vehicle pedestrian collisions of signalized intersection
Number of bus stops near to intersection AMF1p
0 1
1 or 2 2.78
3 or more 4.15
Presence of school near to intersection AMF2p
No school presence 1
School presence 1.35
Number of alcohol sales establishments AMF3p
near to intersection
0 1
1-8 1.12
9 or more 1.56
(Source: - High safety manual ,2008 )
Table 3.3: AMF for different junction type parameter
Junction type Bus stops school Alcohol sales
AMF1p AMF2p AMF3p
Kera 3SG 3 4.15 0 1 0 1
Gofa 4 leg intersection 2 2.78 0 1 0 1
Gofa round about 1 2.78 1 1.35 0 1
Germen roundabout 4 4.15 2 1.35 0 1
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Lafto 4 leg 2 2.78 1 1.35 0 1
intersection
Garment round about 2 2.78 0 1 0 1
Hana mariam 4 4.15 2 1.35 0 1
Source: highway safety manual
Step 3 predicted average crash frequency
N pedx = Npedbase × (AMF1p × AMF2p × AMF3p) …………………………..…. (3.17)
Where,
Npedx = predicted average number of vehicle-pedestrian collisions per year for site type x.
Npedbase= predicted number of vehicle-pedestrian collisions per year for base conditions at
signalized intersections.
AMF1p …AMF3p = Accident Modification Factors for urban intersection.
Step 4 weighed adjustment to be placed
1
w = … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … . . … … (3.18)
1 + k × (∑all study years N Pedx)
Where,
k = over dispersion parameter from the associated SPF (k = 0.52, for 3SG and k = 0.24, for 4SG)
Step 5 expected crash frequency (EB regression method)
N expected = w x N pedx + (1 − w)x N observed ped. …………..…………….. (3.19)
Where,
Nexpected = expected average crashes frequency for the study period.
Npredicted = predicted average crash frequency predicted using a SPF for the study period
under the given conditions.
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w = weighted adjustment to be placed on the SPF prediction.
Nobserved = observed crash frequency at the site over the study period
Step 6 potential improvement
PI i = N expected i – N predicted i ……………………………………………….. (3.20)
where
PI i= potential improvement at site i
N expected i = expected average crashes frequency for the study period at site i.
N predicted i=predicted average crash frequency predicted using a SPF for the study period
under the given conditions at site i
Step 7 ranking of location
29 | P a g e
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1. Analysis of Road Traffic Accident Extent in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City Roads
This study confirmed that road traffic accident analysis done for the previous 5 years traffic
accident data from Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City roads documentation office. This detail
investigation and diagnosis showed that the cause of accident and identified the rank of the
accident severity in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City roads for better understanding and
recommendation to minimize the road traffic accident.
4.1.1. Distribution of road accidents by hours
Road traffic accidents vary by hours of a day; with maximum crashes when mobility of
pedestrians, passengers, and drivers frequency increases. The distribution of traffic accident
with time difference throughout a day; most critical time recorded from 12:00AM to
6:00PM (figure 4.1). But other study result indicted that the maximum crash occur at
10:00am in 2004 and at 11:00am in 2005 in Akaki sub city (Atsebha, 2006). Hence, the
accidents were highly associated with the number and time of movements of pedestrians,
passengers, drivers and vehicles.
4500
accident frequncy
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Time 6.00AM-12.00PM 12.00PM-6.00PM 6.00PM-12.00PM 12.00AM-6.00AM TOTAL
2005 420 439 413 431 1703
2006 292 503 583 544 2030
2007 42 1163 955 633 2793
2008 242 853 1324 1175 3317
2009 251 1121 1202 1449 4023
Figure: 4.1 Distribution of road accidents by hours

Source: Addis Ababa traffic police commission, AATPC (2009)
30 | P a g e
4.1.2. Distribution of road accidents by day of week
Analysis of road traffic accident severity in the sub city by day of a week was increased from
2005 to 2009. In 2009, traffic accidents were significantly the highest in all days of the week.
There were 630,678,521, 768, 609, 410 and 407 traffic accidents on Monday, Tuesday,
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday respectively. According to this report, there was
a large number of accidents occurring on Thursday while on Sunday was recorded the smallest
throughout a year. Furthermore, in 2005, 2006 and 2008 the highest accident crashes occurred
on Thursday with report data of 292, 324, and 602 respectively (figure 4.2). This result was
similar with Astebha (2006), the highest accident crashes occur on Thursday in Akaki Sub
City.
16000
14000
12000
Numbe of accident
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday total
day of week Distribution of traffic accident by day for 2005-2009
2005 214 213 242 272 232 238 292 1703
2006 312 301 299 324 286 285 223 2030
2007 307 394 407 401 298 513 473 2793
2008 572 522 512 602 204 502 403 3317
2009 630 678 521 768 609 410 407 4023
Total 2035 2108 1981 2367 1629 1948 1798 13866
Figure: 4.2 Distribution of road accidents by days
Source: Addis Ababa traffic police commotion (2009)
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4.1.3 Distribution of accident by road characteristics
Road junctions are categorized into different types including midblock, Y-junction, T-
junction, roundabout, four-leg junction and five-leg junction. In this regard, midblock junction
had the highest and most frequent accident rates as compared to the other junctions with a
significant increment from 2005-2009. This result was Similar with (Dawit, 2008).
4000
3500
3000
no junction
2500
Y shape junction
traffic accident
2000
T shape junction
1500
round about
1000
intersection on
500
x shape junction
0
total junction
serious
minor
serious
serious
serious
p.damege
minor
p.damege
minor
p.damege
minor
p.damege
serious
minor
p.damege
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 4.3 Distribution accident by road type
4.1.4. Distribution accident by number of lane direction
Road lane type and quality have crucial importance in reducing road traffic accidents (HSM,
2003). In this regard, the analysis of the data showed the presence of significant difference in
exhibiting road traffic accidents within lanes and between years.
The highest frequency of accidents was associated with two-way with divided discontinues
line followed by undivided two-way lane. This was similar with Dawit (2008) and Astebha
32 | P a g e
(2006).
total
9000
Divided discontinues line
Divided continues line
8000
Divided by island
7000
two-way
6000
One way
5000
4000
accident
3000
2000
1000
0
minor
minor
minor
serious
minor
minor
serious
serious
serious
serious
p.damege
p.damege
p.damege
p.damege
p.damege
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 4.4 Distribution accident by number of lane direction
4.1.5. Distribution of accident by location (land use)
Land uses of the Sub-City were divided into, School Area, Industrial Area, Church Areas,
Market Areas, Recreation Area, Hospital Area, Office area , Residential and Other types of
land uses in order to examine the accident extents in each area. The data collected confirm that
Market Areas land uses had very frequent accidents; of 190, 1226 and 2510 in 2007, 2008 and
2009 respectively. Similarly, in school areas, there were traffic accident reports of 51, 1046,
and 869 in 2007, 2008, and 2009 respectively (figure 4.5). Therefore, the distribution of traffic
accident by land use was recorded the highest accident in high mobility of population.
33 | P a g e
8000
7000
traffic accident
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
pro pro pro pro pro
seri min seri min seri min seri min seri min
pert pert pert pert pert
ous or ous or ous or ous or ous or
y y y y y
accident type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total area 148 133 1422 144 133 1753 210 119 2427 285 161 2871 328 179 3516
other area 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Residential area 22 32 204 24 24 298 30 0 0 0 0 210 50 48 498
office area 32 36 230 29 25 332 43 14 0 112 49 435 25 0 68
hospital area 8 6 117 4 8 56 0 50 102 0 0 0 0 0 0
recreation n center 21 19 246 29 24 278 27 0 257 0 0 0 15 10 430
market area 20 18 272 28 26 376 59 12 120 122 69 1035 210 100 2200
religion area 11 5 98 8 4 103 0 0 516 0 0 0 0 0 0
factory area 13 11 138 4 8 154 0 43 1432 0 0 239 0 0 0
school area 21 6 117 18 14 156 51 0 0 51 43 952 28 21 320
Figure 4.5 Distribution of accident by location
4.1.6 Drivers factors by sex and age
4.1.6.1 Drivers factors by sex
Most of the time, the major contributing factor in the majority of traffic accidents is the
behavior of the drivers; hence, many studies show that 80-90% of the road traffic accidents
are attributed to the fault of the drivers, and majority of them are male drivers (Bitew, 2002).
Similarly, the analysis results showed that 80.92% of the driver error was caused by male
drivers, the remaining 19.08% error was caused female driver from 2005-2009 in Nifas Silk
Lafto Sub-City. Moreover, out of 80.92% road accidents, about 12.65%, 41.19%, and 27.08%
were fatal, serious injuries and slight injures respectively. However, the female drivers’ road
traffic accident casualties were minimal, i.e., only about 11.38% and 7.7% of serious and slight
34 | P a g e
accidents were recorded respectively in the year between 2005 and 2009, with no fatalities
(Table 4.1).
Table 4.1 Sex of driver * Accident level Cross tabulation
Sex of Driver Accident level Total
death Serious Minor
injury injury
count 278 905 595 1778
Male % of total 12.65% 41.19% 27.08% 80.92%
count 0 250 169 419
Female % of total 0.0% 11.38% 7.7% 19.08%
count 278 1155 764 2197
Total % of total 12.65% 52.57% 34.77% 100%
Traffic accident in male participants was significantly difference from female participants
(χ2=66.86, df=1, p =0.000)(Table 4.2). It showed the male participants were involved more
than the female participants in the last five-year period in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City.
Table 4.2 Chi-square Test Calculation Results
Sex of the Observed Expected df Critical χ2 Calculated χ2
drivers frequency frequency
Male 1778 1399.72 1 3.841 66.86
Female 417 1820.136
Total 2197
Significant value 0.05 .000
35 | P a g e
4.1.6.2. Drivers factors by age in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City administration
About 45.5% of the driver casualties’ road traffic accident occurred in age group of 18-30, which
was the highest accident.
Age group greater than 50 years was indicated lesser (8.65%) affected age category. Generally,
the study indicated that the number of drivers who suffered in deaths, serious injuries and light
injuries were declined as the age of drivers above 50 years (Table 4.3).
Table 4.3 Driver accident level by percent.
Driver causality Accident level Total
Death Serious Minor
<18 count 3 60 48 111
% 0.56% 11.28% 9% 20.86%
18-30 count 6 108 128 242
% 1.13% 20.3% 24% 45.5%

Age category
31-50 count 3 61 69 133
% 0.56% 11.47% 12.97% 25%
>50 count 1 9 36 46
% 0.19% 1.69% 6.77% 8.65%
count 13 238 281 532

Total
% 2.44% 44.74% 52.82% 100%
Traffic accident of drivers was significantly difference among age group (χ2=149.88, df=3, p
=0.000). It showed that from 18-30 age group was recorded the highest (242) while > 50 age
group was the smallest (46) traffic accident (Table 4.4).
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Table 4.4 accident by age group of driver.
Age group of Observed Expected Df Critical χ2 Calculated χ2
driver frequency frequency
<18 111 133 3 7.815 149.88
18-30 242 133
31-50 133 133
>50 46 133
Sign. 0.05 0.000
4.1.7 Accident level based on passenger’s age
About 0.51%,4.9%, 9.8%, 34.7% , 27.19%, and 22.81% of the passenger casualties were
recorded in age categorized of < 7, 7-13, 14-17, 18-30, 31-50, and >50 respectively. An age
category from 18-30 was the most affected passenger in road traffic accident. This study
revealed that the number of passenger who suffered in deaths, serious injuries and light injuries
were declined as the age of passenger above 50 year (Table 4.5).
Table 4.5 passenger causality by percent.
Passenger causality Accident level Total
Death Serious Minor
Age <7 count 1 4 4 9
categorized % 0.056% 0.22% 0.22% 0.51%
7-13 count 3 50 34 87
% 0.17% 2.81% 1.9% 4.9%
14-17 count 5 97 73 175
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% 0.28% 5.45% 4.1% 9.83%
18-30 count 19 326 274 619
% 1.067% 18.31% 15.39% 34.78%
31-50 count 15 294 175 484
% 0.84% 16.52% 9.83% 27.19%
>50 count 12 152 242 406
% 0.67% 8.54% 13.6% 22.81%
total count 55 923 802 1780
% 3.09% 51.85% 45.06% 100%
4.1.8. Pedestrian Casualties
Road traffic accident is highly affecting the population of developing countries of which
pedestrian are the most affected population (WHO, 2004). Similarly, the road traffic accidents
affect the pedestrian 86% in the cities Addis Ababa (ARTMO, 2008). The result showed that
about 75% pedestrian, 20% passengers and 5% driver’s traffic causalities from 2005-2009 E.C
in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City. This was due to lack of road traffic infrastructure or inadequately.
This study was showed that the majority (48.73%) of the accident was on the age group of 18-
30, which followed by the age group of 31-50(24.16%) (Table 4.6). Thus, confirmed that most
of road traffic accidents were highly affecting the economically active citizens (i.e., youths
and young adult groups). This, in turn, negatively affects the economy of the country and social
structure of the population in the Addis Ababa.
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Table 4.6 accident level based on age category for pedestrian
Causality pedestrians Accident level Total
Death Serious Minor
Age <7 count 3 39 66 108
categorized % 0.044% 0.57% 0.97% 1.58%
7-13 count 13 176 232 421
% 0.19% 2.58% 3.4% 6.16%
14-17 count 18 356 199 573
% 0.26% 5.2% 2.91% 8.4%
18-30 count 102 1707 1521 3330
% 1.49% 24.98% 22.26% 48.73%
31-50 count 51 931 669 1651
% 0.74% 13.62% 9.79% 24.16%
>50 count 23 325 402 750
% 0.34% 4.76% 5.88% 10.98%
Total count 210 3534 3089 6833
% 3.07% 51.71% 45.2% 100%
The level of accident was significantly difference among age categories of pedestrians
(χ2=6245.67, df=5, p=0.000). The highest (3330) accident was recorded from 18-30 age group
while the smallest (108) was in <7 age group of pedestrians (Table 4.7).
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Table 4.7 Chi-square test result pedestrian age victims
Age group of Observed Expected df Critical χ2 Calculated χ2

pedestrians frequency frequency
<7 108 1138.8 5 11.07 6245.67
7-13 421 1138.8
14-17 573 1138.8
18-30 3330 1138.8
31-50 1651 1138.8
>50 750 1138.8
sign 0.05 0.000
4.1.9. Accident severity on major roads in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City
About 314,438 and 479 death was recorded in 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively, it indicated
that accident severity trend was increased from year to year (figure 4.6).
14000
12000
10000
8000
Accident
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 toatal
Death 381 347 314 438 479 1959
Serious injury 148 144 210 285 328 1115
Minor injury 133 133 156 161 179 762
Property damage 1422 1753 2427 2871 3516 11989
Figure 4.6 Distribution of traffic accident by accident level
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4.2 Analysis Of Questioners Result
4.2.1. Demographics
From total, 57.70% of respondents were male pedestrians, while 42.3% of respondents were
female pedestrian. Similarly out of total, 92.9% of respondents were male drivers, while 7.1%
of respondents were female drivers’. Greater than 83.41% of pedestrians at roundabout and
intersections was below 45 years old, while above 85% drivers were 45 years old or below in
roundabouts and intersection.
Level of Education also varied for both drivers and pedestrians. Pedestrians at roundabouts
and intersections had about 48.80% of respondents with complete high school and above
while drivers over 60.70% with complete high school( Table 4.8).
However, the percentage of level of education respondents at roundabouts intersections
with drivers and pedestrians were similar.
Table 4.8 Demographic data of pedestrians and drivers

Demographic Responses by
pedestrian driver
number % number %
Gender Male 222 57.7 357 92.9
Female 162 42.3 27 7.1
Age 18-24 154 40 134 34.8
25-34 96 25 110 28.6
35-44 71 18.41 92 23.8
45-54 48 12.5 29 7.5
55++ above 16 4.1 20 5.2
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Level of Complete high school 188 48.8 233 60.7
education Diploma 129 33.5 61 15.91
Bachelor degree 58 15.2 69 17.95
Master degree 10 2.5 21 5.44
4.2.2. Frequency tables of both driver and pedestrian response
A) Driver response
The table shows that driver response regularly pass through intersection and roundabout per
day approximately 70% this means that most of driver familiar to the road. But 16% driver
response rarely pass through the intersection and not familiar the road. Due to unfamiliarity
for the road most probability driver collision occurs in that route (Table 4.9).
Table 4.9 The frequency of drive to reach destinations pass through intersection and
roundabout per day
Frequency of Frequency Percent Cumulative

Drive Percent
regularly 269 70.0 70.0
occupationally 54 14.1 84.1
rarely 61 15.9 100.0
Total 384 100.0
Driving behavior change when enter to signalized intersection or roundabout from a main road
because traffic volume high and speed on intersection slow. Based on table above no behavior
change when enter to signalized from a main road approximately 13%. This not good behavior
because the most probability vehicle collision occurs (Table 4.10).
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Table 4. 10: The driving behavior change when enter to signalized intersection or roundabout
from a main road
Behavioral change of driving Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Yes 292 76.1 76.1
No 50 13.0 89.1
Sometime 42 10.9 100.0
Total 384 100.0
About 81% driver slow down enter to intersection and 5.4% aggressive driver (speedy).
According to this aggressive driver traffic accident rate increase from year to year. In order to
tackle this problem speed breaker and slow down sign provided on road segment (4.11).
Table 4.11 The slowdown of entering to any intersection or roundabout
Slowdown of Frequency Percent Cumulative

speed percent
Yes 311 81 81
No 21 5.4 86.4
Sometime 52 13.6 100.0
Total 384 100.0
Driver communicate with pedestrian, bicyclists, or other driver in a non – verbal manner (eye
contact, hand gestures) at roundabout and intersection about 75% of the driver answer say yes.
But, about 2.1% driver there is no communicate with pedestrian at round about and intersection
due to this reason the probability vehicle collision happen (4.12).
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Table 4.12 communicate with pedestrian at roundabout and intersection

Communicate with Frequency Percent Cumulative
pedestrian percent
Yes 288 75 75
No 8 2.1 77.1
Sometime 88 22.9 100.0
Total 384 100.0
Based on table 4.13 the driver about 18.5% say yes had a collision with pedestrian at
intersection and roundabout. So that approximately 82% say no this means biases answer (4.13).
Table 4.13 driver collision with pedestrian at intersection and roundabout
Driver Collusion with Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent

Pedestrian
Yes 71 18.5 18.5
No 313 81.4 100
Total 384 100
B) Pedestrian response
From above table shows that pedestrian response regularly pass through intersection and
roundabout per day approximately 74% this means that most of pedestrian familiar to the road.
But 12% pedestrian response rarely pass through the intersection and not familiar the road.
Due to unfamiliarity for the road most probability pedestrian collision occurs in that route
(Table 4.14).
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Table 4.14 The frequency to reach destinations crossing roundabout and intersection per day
Crossing roundabout Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Regularly 283 73.6 73.6
Occupationally 56 14.5 88.1
Rarely 45 11.7 100.0
Total 384 100.0
Pedestrian behavior change when enter to signalized intersection or roundabout from a main road
because traffic volume high and speed on intersection slow. Based on table above no behavior
change when enter to signalized from a main road approximately 18%. This not good behavior
because the most probability vehicle collision occurs (Table 4.15).
Table 4.15 The pedestrian collision with a car at roundabout and intersection
Pedestrian collision Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Yes 316 82.3 82.3
No 68 17.7 100.0
Total 384 100.0
About 73% pedestrian feel safe waiting on Pedestrian Island at roundabout and intersection
27.5% pedestrian say no. According to this aggressive pedestrian traffic accident rate increase
from year to year. In order to tackle this problem zebra crossing and pedestrian refuge provided
on road segment (Table 4.16).
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Table 4.16 The pedestrian safe waiting on island at roundabout and intersection
Safe waiting on island Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Yes 278 72.5 72.5
No 106 27.5 100.0
Total 384 100.0
About 71.6% pedestrian feel safe crossing on Pedestrian Island at roundabout and intersection
28.4% pedestrian say no. According to this aggressive pedestrian traffic accident rate increase
from year to year. In order to tackle this problem zebra crossing and pedestrian refuge provided
on road segment (Table 4.17).
Table 4.17 pedestrian safe crossing the lane at roundabout and intersection
Safe Crossing Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Yes 275 71.6 71.6
No 109 28.4 100.0
Total 384 100.0
Table 4.18 Roundabout and intersection design considering pedestrians safety
Pedestrians Safety Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Yes 216 56.2 56.2
No 168 43.8 100.0
Total 384 100.
About 34.6% of say no pedestrian safety and pedestrian walking through sidewalks of .
Roundabout, intersection and any crossing refuge. According to this statics most accident
occur based on pedestrian error (Table 4.19).
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Table 4.19 Guardrails important in terms of safety when pedestrian walking through sidewalks
of roundabout, intersection and any crossing refuge
crossing refuge Frequency Percent Cumulative percent
Yes 251 65.4 65.4
No 133 34.6 100.0
Total 384 100.
Sources:-Own calculation
4.3. Identification and Analysis of Black Spot on Nifas Silk Lafto Road
4.3.1. Analysis of accident black spot (section)
Table 4.20 indicate that road sections 16,14,7,6,4,17, and 12 were highly prone to
accidents with crash per year values of 9.8, 7.7,7.6,5.8,5.4,5, and 4.6 respectively. Hence,
black road section based on fatal and injury segment 16, 14, 7 and 6 priority to treat. This was
contradict result from Dawit (2008), Harun (2007) and Astebha (2006) because of different
place with different exposure.
Table: 4.20 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident frequency method for road
section for pedestrian accident.
Column A Column B
Road Total Crash Road Fatal and injury Crash per year
segment crash per year segment
16 112 22.4 16 49 9.8
14 93 18.6 14 38 7.6
7 66 13.2 7 38 7.6
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6 64 12.8 4 29 5.8
4 60 12 6 27 5.4
17 53 10.6 17 25 5
12 49 9.8 12 23 4.6
9 33 6.6 10 18 3.6
2 32 6.4 9 14 2.8
10 30 6 2 13 2.6
Source: Own calculation and road safety manual reference
Table 4.21 indicate that the intersections 15, 13,8,and 11 were highly prone to accidents
with crash per year values of 12.2, 6.4,4 and 3.6 respectively( table 4.2.1). Hence, black road
section based on fatal and injury intersection 12.2, 6.4, 4 and 3.6 priority to treat. This was
contradict result from Dawit (2008), Harun (2007) and Astebha (2006).
Table: 4.21NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident frequency method for
intersection for pedestrian accident.
Column A Column B
intersection Total Crash intersection Fatal Crash
crash per year injury per year
15 117 23.4 15 61 12.2
13 48 9.6 13 32 6.4
8 42 8.4 8 20 4
11 39 7.8 11 18 3.6
1 27 5.4 5 13 2.6
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5 22 4.4 3 11 2.2
3 18 3.6 1 6 1.2
Source: Own calculation and road safety manual reference
Results indicate that the intersections 16, 14, and 7 were highly prone to accidents rate
values of 2.66, 2.63and 1.27 respectively. The comparison of undivided two lane with
divided two lane the result shows that divided two lane was highest crash rate.
Table: 4.22NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident rate method for road section.
Road Reference AADT Accident Length Crash rate Average accident
segmen population frequency (km) rate
All Pede All Ped. All Ped.
crashes crash crashes
4 U.D.T.L 36798 60 45 0.86 1.04 0.78 1.04 0.78
2 D.T.L 24097 32 23 0.62 1.17 0.87 1.67 1.24
6 D.T.L 21646 64 47 1.14 1.42 1.04
7 D.T.L 21646 66 50 1 1.67 1.27
9 D.F.L 39437 33 23 0.93 0.49 0.34
10 D.F.L 39437 30 21 0.7 0.59 0.42
12 D.F.L 26326 49 38 1 1.02 0.7
14 D.F.L 14561 93 70 1 3.45 2.63
16 D.F.L 14561 112 84 1.19 3.54 2.66
17 D.F.L 14561 53 38 1.16 1.72 1.23
Source: Own calculation and road safety manual reference.
49 | P a g e
Table 4.23 indicate that intersections 15, 13, and 11 were highly prone to accidents rate
values of 1.46, 0.64 and 0.29 respectively. The comparison all crash with pedestrian the
result shows that pedestrian crash was almost approximately about 90%.
Table: 4.23 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using accident rate method for intersection.
intersection AADT MEV Total crash Crash rate
All crashs ped All crashs ped
1 73408 133.2 38 27 0.285 0.2
3 142627 260.98 27 18 0.103 0.069
5 57559 105.85 31 22 0.293 0.21
8 144233 262.8 59 41 0.225 0.156
11 75071 136.88 58 39 0.424 0.285
13 41346 74.8 64 48 0.856 0.642
15 44328 80.4 162 117 2.02 1.457
Source: own calculation
From table 4.24 intersection 11 and 15 crash rate were greater than critical rate. Hence, black
spot based on fatal and injury intersection 11 and 15 priority to treat. This was contradict result
sfrom Dawit (2008), Harun (2007) and Astebha (2006).
50 | P a g e
Table: 4.24 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using critical rate method for intersection.
intersection Crash rate Critical rate Black spot
(crashes/MEV) (crashes/MEV)
All accident Pedestrian All accident Pedestrian All accident Pedestrian
accident accident accident
1 0.285 0.2 0.35 0.25
3 0.103 0.069 0.33 0.23
5 0.293 0.21 1 0.75
8 0.225 0.156 0.95 0.7
11 0.424 0.285 0.35 0.25 Black spot Black spot
13 0.856 0.642 1.03 0.78
15 2.02 1.457 1.03 0.77 Black spot Black spot
From table 4.25 road section 16 crash rate were greater than critical rate. Hence, black section
based on fatal and injury road section 16 priority to treat. This was different from Dawit (2008),
Harun (2007) and Astebha (2006).
Table: 4.25NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using critical rate method for road section.
Road Crash rate Critical rate Black section
section (crashes/MEV) (crashes/MEV)
All accident Pedestrian All accident Pedestrian All accident Pedestrian
accident accident accident
2 1.17 0.87 2.095 1.608
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4 1.04 0.78 1.26 1.44
6 1.42 1.04 1.998 1.51
7 1.67 1.27 2.02 1.55
9 0.49 0.34 1.94 1.46
10 0.59 0.42 1.98 1.5
12 1.02 0.7 1.99 1.52
14 3.45 0.63 2.08 1.61 Black section
16 3.54 2.66 2.06 1.58 Black section Black section
4.3.2. Excess predicted crash frequency using method of moments for road segment
In the method of moments, a site’s observed accident frequency is adjusted to partially account
for regression to the mean. The adjusted observed average crash frequency is compared to the
average crash frequency for the reference population to determine the potential for
improvement (PI). The potential for improvement of all reference populations (divided two
lane, divided four lane) are combined into one ranking list for road segment.
Table 4.26 average crash frequency for road segment per reference population
Road Type Total Crashes Annual Crash Average crash

segme facility frequency frequency per
nt ID reference population
All Pedestrian All Pedestrian All Pedestrian

crashes crashes crashe crashes crashes crashes
s
4 Undivided 60 45 12 9 12 9
2 divided 32 23 6.4 4.6 11.72 8.76
6 divided 64 47 12.8 9.4
7 divided 66 50 13.2 10
9 divided 33 23 6.6 4.6
10 divided 30 21 6 4.2
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12 divided 49 38 9.8 7.6

14 divided 93 70 18.6 14
16 divided 112 84 22.4 16.8
17 divided 53 38 10.6 7.6
From table 4.27 to shows variance for all with variance for pedestrian crashes almost of similar
because of the pedestrian crash was cover about 90%.
Table 4.27 the reference population average crash and variance for road segment.
Reference Crash frequency
population Average for all Average for Variance for all Variance for
crashes Pedestrian crashes crashes Pedestrian crashes
Undivided 11.72 8.76 32.11 28.59
4 lane
Table 4.28 Adjusted Observed Crash Frequency and Potential for Improvement for road
segment
All Pedestrian All crashes Pedestrian All Pedestrian
crashes crashes crashes crashes crashes
10 6 4.2 8.1 5.6 2.1 1.4
2 6.4 4.6 8.34 5.88 1.94 1.28
9 6.6 4.6 8.45 5.88 1.85 1.28
12 9.8 7.6 10.5 7.96 0.7 0.36
17 10.6 7.6 11.1 7.96 0.5 0.36
6 12.8 9.4 12.41 9.2 -0.39 -0.2
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7 13.2 10 12.66 9.62 -0.54 -0.38
14 18.6 14 16.1 12.39 -2.5 -1.61
16 22.4 16.8 18.5 14.34 -3.9 -2.46
4.3.2.1. Traffic accident priority ranking for Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City road section
From table 4.29 high prone accident rate in section – 10 (Hana Mariam to kadisco ) because
of the cause of this abnormality pavement condition , slope , width of lane and absence of
pedestrian crossing was the main cause.
Table 4.29 traffic accident priority rank for road section
Rank Name of road section Rank Name of road section
1 Section - 10 6 Section - 6
3 Section -9 8 Section - 14
5 Section - 17
Source: own calculated
4.3.3. Analysis of black spot with empirical Bayesian methods
From table 4.30 black spot Hana Mariam 4 leg intersection, Garment roundabout and Germen
roundabout were the highest accident black spot,39,23,and 6 PI value due to highest pedestrian
volume but low facility of pedestrian. This study has the criteria for further screening the most
dangerous road based on PI method.
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Table 4.30: EB regression method for PI.
Junction types Predicted Observed Over W N expected PI Rank
crashes crashes dispersion
parameter
Kera 3 SG 92.55 6 0.52 0.02 7.73 -84.5 7th
Gofa 4 leg intersection 5.84 11 0.24 0.05 10.75 4.9 4th
Gofa round about 20.30 13 0.24 0.05 13.4 -6.9 6th
Germen round about 14.23 20 0.24 0.05 19.72 5.48 3rd
Lafto 4 leg intersection 13.36 18 0.24 0.05 17.77 4.41 5th
Garment roundabout 7.78 32 0.24 0.05 30.81 23.03 2nd
Hana Mariam 4 leg 19.83 61 0.24 0.05 58.96 39.13 1st
intersection
4.4. Engineering Measures for Black Spots
4.4.1. Evaluation of black spot for Hana Mariam intersection
Site description: Hana Mariam intersection is located on the bridge and Hana Mariam market.
The frequency of communities to the Market and to the church is very high and hence, the area
practiced the high fatal, serious, slight and property damage accidents which worsens the rate
of causalities and accidents of RTAs in the area.
Site inspection
 There was a complete absence of marking. The Absence of lane marking caused vehicle
drivers to leave a particular travelled lane that creates confusion among motorists and to cause
a serious accident of head on collisions.
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 There was no route edge line marking throughout the observed route section, and drivers
using inner lane to hit the median edge due to the edge line missing and create accidents. There
were complete absence of transverse markings of the route, and this condition could lead to
serious intersection accidents for pedestrian and vehicle conflicts (Figure 4.7).
 There was damage approach safety barrier (Lack of guard fencing) and road marking
completely at the curve and approach of bridge (Figure 4.7a)
 Absence of proper routine maintenance which caused vehicles to have sudden break or
parked on the outer travelled lane which could lead to serious accidents (Figure 4.7a).
 There was no pedestrian crossing provided Pedestrians were susceptible for accidents.
The route had faded markings, especially at the pedestrian crossing location, but the overall
condition of road marking along the route was terrible (Figure 4.8a).
 There no pedestrian walkway provided. Carriageways and the edges of carriageways used
as footways. It is common to observe pedestrian and vehicle conflicts.
 Responsible authority should enforce street shopping and neighbor stores not to sell or
Place some goods on the sidewalks. (Figure 4.7a,b,c,d)
figure a figure b
figure c figure d
Figure: 4.7 Hana Mariam 4 leg intersection

56 | P a g e
figure a figure b
Figure: 4.8 Hana Mariam to kadisco leg
Improvement needs: The treatment were designed to reduce the number and severity of
crashes. Based on the identified the type of crash found from analysis of the database and site
inspection observed, the related countermeasures that have been successful in similar
circumstances, which related to the type of crash found. So that easily implementable
improvements are suggested for these black spots as follows.
 Walkway facilities should be provided on the route leg in order to protect and separate
pedestrian from moving vehicles. This will avoid or minimize the accident collision which is
the highest collision type facing on the area with pedestrians.
 Warning sign of pedestrian crossing should be placed at zebra crossing on four leg on both
sides in order to minimize the accident collision with pedestrians (figure 4.9a).
 Zebra crossing should be marked with vertical (transvers) signs and horizontal
(longitudinal) marking (Figure 4.9 b,d).
 Marking should be durable, visible by day and at night, skid resistant, and unambiguous.
 Provide new guard fencing at the approach of the bridge , pedestrians may choose a
timesaving and sometimes more hazardous crossing so that the new guard fencing controls
must be required to reinforce the safe crossing point (Figure 4.9 b)
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 On the time of high crash hour (12 Am-6 am), traffic police with traffic sign should be
available in the area.
 Walkway should be provided on service road at underpass location trimming trees from
inner side of road only two leg in order to improve the limited sight distance.
figure a
figure b
figure d
figure c
Figure: - 4.9 For Hana Mariam intersection recommended measure
4.4. 2 Garment junction
Site description: Garment roundabout, which is, located on the dense traffic areas where
starting Addis to Adam express way from this junction. Moreover, due to the presence of this
express way the slowly speed change to high vehicle speed. Due to this behavior change, the
area practiced the highest RTAs comparing with other based on PI value.
Field investigations: - Photographs of some field observations on the area which shows
deficiencies of the rout contribution exposures for those type of collisions especially for
pedestrian and vehicle conflicts are presented below.
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Pedestrian crossing lines have faded out almost completely at some approaches, in the median.
There is high volume of on-street parking, and parked vehicles not safely parked inside the
travelled lane and these conditions continue disturbing the smooth traffic movement, and they
create serious problems for drivers and vulnerable road users'(Figure 4.10b,a)
Along the pedestrian walkways, there have been many concrete blocks and improper concert
electric pole location, which were located at the center of the walkway on one side and which
could create higher potential safety problems to the road users (pedestrians) (Figure 4.10b,a).
There is no roadside barrier used to separate roadways from pedestrian and to cause to lead
the pedestrian to the correct way (Figure 4.10b, a).
figure a figure b
Figure: 4.10 Garment roundabout
Improvement needs: The treatment is designed to reduce the number and severity of crashes.
Based on the identified the type of crash found from analysis of the data base and site
inspection observed, the related countermeasures which have been successful in similar
circumstances which are related to the type of crash found. Thus, easily implementable
 Zebra crossing should be provided and warning sign of pedestrian crossing should be placed
at zebra crossing on both sides in order to minimizing the accident collision with pedestrians.
 Pedestrian and vehicle segregation using by fence.
59 | P a g e
 Provide fence to lead the pedestrian to safe crossing and avoiding trading on the walkways so
that it is easy to minimizing the accident collision with pedestrians.
 Traffic policy should be supplied with modern equipment and facilities to carry their tasks.
4.4.3 German junction
Site description: Germany roundabout, which is, located on the dense traffic areas where
market, school and commercial bank were found.
Field investigations: - Germany roundabout is surrounded by commercial bank, school and
market areas with a significant number of heavy vehicles using the road, especially during
early in the morning and late in the evening. Photographs of some field observations on the
area which shows deficiencies of the rout contribution exposures for those type of collisions
especially for pedestrian and vehicle conflicts are presented below.
The walkway is not properly used by pedestrian, it becomes parts of shopping that force
pedestrians to walk along the road, then Carriageways or the edge of carriageways are used as
footways. It is common to observe pedestrian and vehicle conflicts (Figure 4.11b).
Pedestrian crossing lines have faded out almost completely at all approaches, in the median
also, absence of proper routine maintenance has been observed. The pedestrians' refuge island
area are facing big pothole that could create potential safety problems while crossing.
These conditions could lead to serious intersection accidents or collisions with pedestrians.
There is high volume of on-street parking, and parked vehicles not safely parked inside the
travelled lane and these conditions continue disturbing the smooth traffic movement, and they
create serious problems for drivers and vulnerable road users'(Figure 4.11b).
60 | P a g e
Along the pedestrian walkways, there have been many concrete blocks and improper wooden
electric pole location, which were located at the center of the walkway on one side and which
could create higher potential safety problems to the road users (pedestrians).
There is no roadside barrier used to separate roadways from pedestrian and to cause to lead
the pedestrian to the correct way.
figure a figure b
Figure: 4.11 German roundabout leg
Improvement needs: The treatment is designed to reduce the number and severity of crashes.
Based on the identified the type of crash found from analysis of the data base and site
inspection observed, the related countermeasures which have been successful in similar
circumstances which are related to the type of crash found. Thus, easily implementable
 Zebra crossing should be provided and warning sign of pedestrian crossing should be placed
at zebra crossing on both sides in order to minimizing the accident collision with pedestrians.
 Pedestrian and vehicle segregation using by fence.
 Provide fence to lead the pedestrian to safe crossing and avoiding trading on the walkways so
that it is easy to minimizing the accident collision with pedestrians.
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4.4.4 Evaluation of black spot for Gabriel to Lafto 4 leg intersection
Site inspection:-
 There was no properly constructed side walkway (Figure 4.12a)
 The marked ware faded with no sign to road user
 Poor drainage on pedestrian walkway (Figure 4.12b)
 Faded pedestrian walkway asphalt (Figure 4.12c)
figure a figure b
figure c
figure d
Figure: 4.12 Gabriel to Lafto 4 leg intersection
Improvement needs:
 Zebra crossing should be marked with vertical signs and horizontal marking
 Warning sign of pedestrian crossing should be placed at zebra crossing on both sides in
order to minimize the accident collusion with pedestrians.
 Some drainage system must be closed.
 As much as possible pedestrian walkway properly maintain.
 Enforcement for parking vehicle on side of the asphalt.
62 | P a g e
4.4.5. Evaluation of black spot for Kera to Goffa junction
Site description: The area includes Y- type signalized intersection. Moreover, due to the
presence of Addis Ababa Kera many animals travel frequently on pedestrian walkway.
Therefore, these factors exacerbate the causality and the accident rates of RTAs in the area.
Site inspection
 Absence of controlled pedestrian crossing facilities
 There was no properly constructed side walkway.
 The marked ware faded with no sign to road user.
 The route has faded markings, especially at the pedestrian crossing location.
 There was complete absence of transverse markings of the route, which could lead to serious
intersection accidents.
 Absence of proper routine maintenance, which caused vehicles to have sudden break or parked
on the outer travelled lane, which could lead to serious accidents has been observed.
figure a figure b figure c
Figure: 4.13 photo kera to gofa junction
Improvement measures
 Zebra crossing should be marked with vertical signs and horizontal marking and should be
provided for pedestrians for safe road crossings at appropriate places.
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 Warning sign of pedestrian crossing should be placed at zebra crossing on both sides in order
to minimize the accident collusion with pedestrians.
 Preparation and construction of separate parking areas by any concerned government bodies
should be made.
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5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 .Conclusions
The study revealed that the existence of large difference in road traffic victims among drivers,
passengers, and pedestrians in respect of sexes and ages. Male drivers, passengers, and
pedestrians were most affected by road traffic accident as compared to their female
counterparts. Moreover, the result confirmed that road traffic accident with regard to death,
serious injuries and light injuries in the city mostly affected age category was from 18-30
regardless of their sex, and started declining after age of 30.
Generally, most of the road traffic accidents were highly affecting the economically active
citizens(18-30) i.e., youths and young adult groups, which, in turn, negatively affects the
economy of the country and social structure of the population.
The road traffic accident trends in the Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City in terms of days of a week
was significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 in all days of the week except on Sunday though
there are slight differences.
Road traffic accidents varied in hours of a day in the Sub-City from 2005 -2009 E.C, thus the
crash recorded highest when pedestrians, passengers, and drivers frequency of movement
increased. Accordingly, accident reports in the Sub City based on crash hour the most critical
time for traffic accident from 12:00am to 6:00pm.
Moreover, the study revealed that presence of accident differences in different land uses.
School followed by and Market Areas very frequent accidents though the remaining land uses
have small accident reports for the last five year.
Midblock road junction recorded the highest and most frequent accident rates as compared to
the other junctions with radical increment from 2005-2009. Road lane type and quality have
65 | P a g e
crucial important in reducing road traffic accidents. In this regard, the investigation of the data
had shown the presence of significant difference in exhibiting road traffic accidents i.e., the
highest accident frequency was associated with two way (with median) which was followed
by undivided two ways. Areas like Hana Mariam 4 leg intersection, Garment roundabout,
German roundabout and Hana Mariam to kadisco road segment, Garment to Hana mariam ,
kera to kera junction experienced the highest accident rates (i.e., which were ranked from 1-
3 for individual section respectively).
Finally, the study identifies the types in the Selected Black Spot Areas. Based on deep
understanding of the main causes of accidents, the engineering solutions should be considered
to minimize the current high frequency of accidents at the Black spots for the most ranked
areas particularly for black spots.
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5.2. Recommendations
Road traffic crash is getting attention from concerned bodies and the society at the moment.
A lot of efforts are being made hoping to reverse the growth rate of the road traffic crash and
to reduce the fatal crash. But if it is intended to achieve the goal, the concerned bodies must
plan activities, projects and programs strategically, based on available evidences as stated.
 Among the total number of people killed by road traffic crash in a year, 75% of them
are pedestrians. More than 70% of the victims of road traffic fatal crash are the
productive part of the society (between age 18 and 50).Hence, the safety of pedestrians
must be the primary objective of road safety improvement efforts.
 Improve pedestrian facility on the main roads to reduce any conflict between high
speeds motorized traffic and pedestrians.
 Improve pedestrian visibility and security by providing enough lightings at crossings
and on walkway. Based on deep understanding of the main causes of accidents, the
engineering solutions should be considered to minimize the current high frequency of
accidents at the Black spots for the most ranked areas particularly for black spots,
proposed details in the analysis and discussion parts were given.
 To summarize, the following recommendations should be implemented; raised zebra
crossing should be provided specially in front of schools; zebra crossing should be
marked with vertical signs and horizontal marking; warning sign of pedestrian crossing
should be placed at zebra crossing on both sides; preparation and construction of
separate parking areas for the church followers either by church or by any concerned
government bodies should be made; provide and properly constructed side walkway
and provide fence to lead the pedestrian.
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Propose For Future Study
 I recommend further research on the effects of transport regulation and policy on the safety
performance of the road transport industry in Ethiopia.
 I recommend to make a study for long time black spot identification study without collecting
a data from third part means of accident recording and also the accident recorder professional
about traffic engineering concept in order to collect unbiased data.
 Road traffic accidents cost the country a lot of resources in terms of death, injuries and
destruction of property. I recommend further research on the detailed information about total
cost of accidents in Addis Ababa.
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Addis Ababa police commission (2007). Average of road traffic fatal crash, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia.
Addis Ababa police commission (2009). Fatal accident data report, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Atsebeha, A. (2006). Road traffic accidents study and possible engineering solution, Akaki, Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia.
Berhanu, G. (2000). Effects of Road Safety and Traffic Factors in Ethiopia; Dissertation;
Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim.
Bikila, T. (2014). Traffic Safety and Environmental Engineering, Addis Ababa University,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Bitew (2002). The driver factor by sex report, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Central Statistical Agency (2010). Average annual road accidents report, Ethiopia.
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Choveir, E. M., R. lamm, J. H. kloeckner, and T. Mailanender, (1994). The relationship between
crash rate and pavement width, Washington, USA.
CSA (2012).Summary and Statistical Report of the 2007: Population and Housing Census
Results, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Dawit (2008). Road traffic accident and safety evaluation, bole, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Dowining (2000). Road traffic accidents contribute to health, economic and development
challenges, Sub - Sahara Africa countries.
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Elvik (1997). The identification, analysis and treatment of black spots, Washington, USA.
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Federal police commission accident report (2005). Ethiopia traffic accident in all case, Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia.
Federal police commission accident report (2005). Ethiopia traffic accident death reports, Addis
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Getu, S. (2007).Cause of road traffic accident and possible counter measure on Addis Ababa to
Shashemene road. MSc. Thesis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
GRSP (1999). Global road deaths, sub-Sahara, Africa.
Guy (2013). The conflict between vehicles and pedestrians, Ethiopia.
Harun (2007). Analysis of the performance of roundabout, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Homburger (1996). Identity black spot segment and junction based on quality control method,
Washington, USA.
HSM (2008). Identify and analyze black spots, Washington, USA.
Iyinam, A.F., Iyinam, S. & Ergun, M. (2000). Analysis of Relationship between Highway Safety
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Layton (1996). Safety performance based on accident rate method, Washington, USA.
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Lundy (1965).The relationships between crash rate and lane widths, Washington, USA.
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Mandefro, T. (2015).Identifying and ranking dangerous road segments along Hawassa-Bulbula
main rural road, MSc thesis, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia.
McMillen (1999). Safety performance based on accident frequency method, Washington, USA.
McMillen (1999). Safety performance based on accident rate method, Washington, USA.
NSLSCTP (2009). Traffic accident statistics collected report, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
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Sarbaz Othman & Robert Thomson (2000), influence of road characteristics on traffic safety,
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Traffic institute (2000). Identity black spot segment and junction based on quality control method,
Washington, USA.
Traffic safety and management division, Addis Ababa City transport program management
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UNECA (2009). Road traffic accident occurred in low and middle income countries, sub – Sahara
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WHO (2009).Road traffic accident occurred in low and middle income countries, sub – Sahara
countries.
WHO (2013). The highest annual road traffic fatality rate, high income country.
WHO (2015). Leading cause of death among people age, middle income countries.
Yayeh, A. (2003). The extent, variations and causes of road traffic accidents in Bahir Dar,
Ethiopia.
71 | P a g e
APPENDIX
Appendix A-1 Questionnaires Form
Experience of Driver
For questions 1 through 3, please fill in the rectangle mark √ that best fits your response to
the question.
1. How frequently do you drive to reach destinations while pass through roundabout and
intersection per day?
Regularly Occasionally
Rarely Never
2. Does your driving behavior change when you enter to roundabout and intersection from a
main road Yes No Sometimes
2 a. Do you typically slow down?
Yes No Sometimes
2 b. Do you ever communicate with pedestrian, bicyclists, or other drivers in a non-
verbal manner (e.g. eye contact, hand gestures) at intersection and roundabout?
Yes No Sometimes
3. As a driver, have you ever had a collision with a pedestrian around intersection and
roundabout?
Yes No
General Information of drivers

For questions 4 through 6, please fill in the rectangle √ that best fits your response to the
question.
4. What is your gender?
Male Female
5. What is your present age?
18 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 44
45 – 54 55+
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6. What is the highest level of education that you have completed?

Completed high school Bachelor degree
Diploma Master’s degree
Experience for Pedestrian and safety perception

For questions 1 through 6 please fill in the rectangle √ that best fits your response to
the question.
1. How frequently do you walk to reach destinations crossing roundabout and intersection per
day?
Regularly Occasionally
Rarely Never
2. As a pedestrian, have you ever had a collision with a car around intersection and roundabout?
Yes No
3. As a pedestrian, are you feel safe waiting on Pedestrian Island at intersection and
roundabout?
Yes No
4. When pedestrians crossing through zebra crossing of intersection and roundabout they
believed to give attention.
Yes No
5. Is that intersection, road segment and roundabout design considering pedestrians safety?
Yes No
6. Guard rails important in terms of safety when pedestrian walking through sidewalks
of Intersection and roundabout?
Yes No
General information of pedestrians

For questions 7 through 9, please fill in the rectangle √ that best fits your response to the
question.
7. What is your gender?
Male Female
8. What is your present age?
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18 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 44
45 – 54 55+
9. What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
Completed high school Bachelor degree
Diploma Master’s degree
Appendices A-2 Police accident report data.
Table A-2-31 Distribution of traffic accident by hours for 2005-2009 year.

year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total
hours
0100-0200 88 99 0 0 0 187
0200-0300 76 95 0 0 0 171
0300-0400 79 58 11 0 0 148
0400-0500 70 4 5 77 0 156
0500-0600 61 6 26 80 126 299
0600-0700 46 60 98 110 213 527
0700-0800 86 68 210 117 188 669
0800-0900 98 81 207 121 175 682
0900-1000 76 95 199 121 196 687
1000-1100 62 119 148 189 202 720
1100-1200 71 80 301 195 147 794
1200-1300 81 14 100 197 201 593
1300-1400 48 110 270 199 210 837
1400-1500 88 120 102 133 173 616
1500-1600 43 111 119 250 188 711
1600-1700 59 120 192 275 207 853
1700-1800 94 108 172 270 223 867
1800-1900 82 110 190 153 336 871
1900-2000 91 94 220 245 239 889
2000-2100 68 101 138 170 248 725
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2100-2200 86 103 25 320 242 776

2200-2300 48 100 40 208 206 602
2300-2400 56 36 20 79 178 369
2400-0100 46 30 0 85 125 286
TOTAL 1703 2030 2793 3317 4023 13866
Sources: - Nifas silk lafto sub city traffic police commission.
Table A-2-32 Distribution of traffic accident by age group 2005-2009 year.
Distribution of traffic accident by age group 2005-2009
age group
year injury Below 18-30 30-50 Above unknown Total
18 50
2005 serious 0 92 40 16 0 148
minor 6 34 66 27 0 133
property 90 672 482 178 0 1422
2006 serious 1 68 49 26 0 144
minor 0 73 45 15 0 133
property 0 1163 400 190 0 1753
2007 serious 0 129 74 0 7 210
minor 0 96 58 0 2 156
property 0 2174 252 0 1 2427
2008 serious 0 163 105 0 17 285
minor 0 96 65 0 0 161
property 0 2121 750 0 0 2871
2009 serious 0 200 95 0 33 328
minor 0 103 76 0 0 179
property 0 3253 263 0 0 3516
total
Table A-2-33 Distribution of traffic accident by day for 2005-2009 year.
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Distribution of traffic accident by day for 2005-2009

Day Mond Tuesd Wednesd Thursd Frida Saturd Sunda
ay ay ay ay y ay y
Year Total
2005 214 213 242 272 232 238 292 1703
2006 312 301 299 324 286 285 223 2030
2007 307 394 407 401 298 513 473 2793
2008 572 522 512 602 204 502 403 3317
2009 630 678 521 768 609 410 407 4023
Table: - A-2-34 Distribution of traffic accident by sex group 2005-2009 year
Distribution of traffic accident by sex group 2005-2009
year injury Male Female unknown Total
2005 serious 128 20 0 148
minor 121 12 0 133
property 1314 108 0 1422
2006 serious 135 9 0 144
minor 90 43 0 133
property 1650 103 0 1753
2007 serious 184 19 7 210
minor 144 10 2 156
property 2113 313 1 2427
2008 serious 228 57 17 285
minor 129 32 0 161
property 1996 875 0 2871
2009 serious 230 98 33 328
minor 109 70 0 179
property 2684 832 0 3516

Table A-2-35 Distribution of traffic accident by accident location area 2005-2009 year
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Distribution of traffic accident by accident location area 2005-2009

accident location
year injury school factory religion market recreatio hospita offie Residential Other Total
area area area area center area area area area
2005 serious 21 13 11 20 21 8 32 22 0 148
minor 6 11 5 18 19 6 36 32 0 133
property 117 138 98 272 246 117 230 204 0 1422
2006 serious 18 4 8 28 29 4 29 24 0 144
minor 14 8 4 26 24 8 25 24 0 133
property 156 154 103 376 278 56 332 298 0 1753
2007 serious 51 0 0 59 27 0 43 30 0 210
minor 0 43 0 12 0 50 14 0 0 119
property 0 1432 516 120 257 102 0 0 0 2427
2008 serious 51 0 0 122 0 0 112 0 0 285
minor 43 0 0 69 0 0 49 0 0 161
property 952 239 0 1035 0 0 435 210 0 2871
2009 serious 28 0 0 210 15 0 25 50 0 328
minor 21 0 0 100 10 0 0 48 0 179
propert 320 0 0 2200 430 0 68 498 0 3516
Table A-2-36 Distribution of traffic accident by road intersection and junction 2005-2009 year
77 | P a g e
Distribution of traffic accident by road intersection and junction 2005-2009

year Types of intersection
injury no Y shape T shape round intersection x shape total
junction junction junction about junction
Y
2005 serious 82 6 12 39 9 0 148
minor 67 5 8 50 3 0 133
p.damege 842 36 13 511 11 9 1422
2006 serious 90 4 2 47 1 0 144
minor 98 2 2 30 1 0 133
p.damege 1212 14 12 507 6 2 1753
2007 serious 135 43 32 0 0 0 210
minor 76 80 0 0 0 0 156
p.damege 1720 395 92 98 75 45 2425
2008 serious 148 0 0 137 0 0 285
minor 114 0 0 47 0 0 161
p.damege 1637 0 0 1234 0 0 2871
2009 serious 177 0 0 83 43 25 328
minor 100 0 0 43 36 0 179
p.damege 1667 0 0 1100 600 149 3516
Sources:- Nifas silk lafto sub city traffic police commission.
Table:-A-2-37 Distribution of traffic accident by road direction 2005-2009 year.
year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Fatal 54 57 44 67 70
Sources:- From Addis Ababa police commission
Table A-2-38 Distribution of traffic accident by road direction 2005-2009 year.
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Distribution of traffic accident by road direction 2005-2009
year Types of road divider

injury One two- Divide Divided Divided total
way way d by continues discontin
island line ues line
2005 serious 42 36 70 0 0 148
minor 38 28 67 0 0 133
p.damege 636 428 358 0 0 1422
2006 serious 55 49 40 0 0 144
minor 40 41 49 0 0 130
p.damege 415 478 860 0 0 1753
2007 serious 55 100 0 0 55 210
minor 38 118 0 0 0 156
p.damege 57 1524 31 199 616 2427
2008 serious 180 105 0 0 0 285
minor 98 63 0 0 0 161
p.damege 1044 824 325 383 295 2871
2009 serious 288 40 0 0 0 328
minor 103 58 0 0 0 161
p.damege 1243 1456 831 353 876 3516
Sources:- Nifas silk lafto sub city traffic police commission.
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Appendix B-1 Traffic data and black spot location.
Table B-1-39 Traffic volume growth rate forecasting table.

year 1st year Growth period 2011-2014
car 4WD S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T
% 6 6 6 6 11 11 11 11
factor 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
year 2nd year Growth period 2015-2024
% 8 8 8 8 16.64 16.64 16.64 16.64
factor 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17
year 3rd year Growth period 2025-2034
% 6 6 6 6 13 13 13 13
factor 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13
Sources: - Addis Ababa City Road Authority (AACRA)
Table B-1-40 Percentage distribution of the traffic flow in each road segment nifas silk lafto
Sub city Adiministration.
car 4WD S/Bus L/ Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T&T Both side
AADT(2011)
44% 33% 12% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 14,472
(6368) (4776) (1737) (434) (579) (289) (145) (145)
37% 35% 15% 3% 6% 2% 1% 1% 21,834
(8079) (7642) (3275) (665) (1310) (437) (218) (218)
26% 16% 28% 3% 4% 15% 6% 2% 12,182
(3150) (1997) (3360) (315) (525) (1680) (735) (42)
50% 11% 16.4% 2.6% 2% 8% 7% 3% 24,920
(12600) (2660) (4340) (560) (490) (1890) (1750) (630)
21% 39% 4% 2% 9% 15% 5% 4% 13,444
(2646) (4788) (504) (254) (2308) (1840) (617) (493)
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35% 9% 40% 2% 2% 8% 4% 1% 8,100

(2856) (756) (3276) (168) (168) (336) (624) (84)
Table: B:1. 41 AADT forecasting for different road section in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City.
kera- gofa junction
year CAR 4WD S/BUS L/BUS S/T M/T H/T T&T TOTAL
(2011E.C) 6368 4776 1737 434 579 289 145 145 14473
(2017E.C) 10106 7579 2756 688 1485 741 371 371 24097
(2022E.C) 14850 11137 4050 1012 3256 1625 815 815 37560
gofa junction to gofa gebrail church.
(2011E.C) 8079 7642 3275 665 1310 437 218 218 21844
(2017E.C) 12821 12127 5197 1055 3360 1120 559 559 58124
(2022E.C) 18840 17821 7637 1550 7367 2457 1226 1226 36798
gofa gebrail church to germen round about
(2011E.C) 3150 1997 3360 315 525 1680 735 42 11804
(2017E.C) 4999 3169 5332 499 1346 4309 1885 107 21646
(2022E.C) 7345 4657 7835 734 2952 9448 4116 236 37323
germen to lafto
(2011E.C) 9600 2660 4340 560 490 1820 1750 630 21850
(2017E.C) 15235 4221 6887 888 1256 4847 4488 1615 39437
(2022E.C) 22368 6197 10112 1304 2744 10584 9800 3528 66637
(2011E.C) 2646 4788 504 259 2308 1840 617 493 13455
(2017E.C) 4199 7598 635 411 5920 4719 1580 1264 26326
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lafto to garment to hanamariam

(2011E.C) 2646 4788 504 259 2308 1840 617 493 13455
(2017E.C) 4199 7598 635 411 5920 4719 1580 1264 26326
(2022E.C) 6170 11156 1175 603 12980 10348 3470 2772 48674
hanamariam to kality roundabout
(2011E.C) 2856 756 3276 168 269 336 624 84 8369
(2017E.C) 4532 1199 5199 266 689 861 1600 215 14561
(2022E.C) 6660 1761 7633 391 1512 1889 3509 472 23827
Source: AACRA documentation office from different consultant project (package 4, 24, 26)
(2006, 2005)
Table:B:1.42 AADT forecasting for different intersection in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City.
kara-y-intersection
year CAR 4WD S/BUS L/BUS S/T M/T H/T T&T TOT.L
(201E.C) Maj 13691 10268 3733 933 1244 622 311 311 31113
min 5749 4312 1568 392 522 261 130 130 13064
(2017EC) Maj 21727 16295 5924 1480 3159 1579 790 790 51744
Min 9123 6843 2428 622 1325 663 330 330 21664
(2022E.C) Maj 31900 23924 8697 2173 6991 3495 1747 1747 80674
Min 13395 10046 3653 913 2933 1466 3030 3030 38466
gofa gebrail round about
year CAR 4WD S/BUS L/BUS S/T M/T H/T T&T TOT.L
(2011E.C) Maj 5825 3584 6273 672 896 3360 1344 448 22402
min 2662 1638 2866 307 409 504 614 204 9204
(2017E.C) Maj 9244 5687 9955 1066 2275 8534 3413 1137 41311
Min 4224 2599 4548 487 1033 1280 1559 518 16248
(2022E.C) Maj 13572 8350 14616 1692 5035 1883 7553 2517 55218
Min 6202 3816 6677 773 2287 2832 3450 1146 27183
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germen round about

(2011E.C) Maj 24665 5426 8090 1282 986 3946 3453 1479 49327
min 15093 3320 4950 784 603 2414 2113 905 30182
(2017E.C) Maj 39143 8611 12838 2034 2504 11838 8770 3756 89494
Min 23952 5268 7855 1244 1513 7242 5367 2298 54739
(2022E.C) Maj 64106 12642 18849 2987 5541 25964 19405 8311 157805
Min 38004 7735 11533 1826 3388 15884 11875 5086 95331
Source: AACRA documentation office from different consultant project (package 4, 24,
26)and (2006, 2005)
lafto -4-leg intersection
Year CAR 4WD S/BUS L/B S/T M/T H/T T&T TOTAL
2011 Maj 5130 9528 977 488 2198 3664 1221 977 24183
min 3276 3715 624 312 1404 2340 780 624 13075
Min 4812 5457 916 458 3077 5943 1709 1367 23739
2017 Maj 8141 15120 1550 774 5582 10992 3701 2481 48341
Min 5199 5895 990 495 3566 7020 1981 1584 26730
2022 Maj 11952 23991 2276 1228 12352 24109 6862 5490 88260
Min 3633 9354 1453 785 7890 15397 4383 3506 46401
Hanamariam-4-leg intersection
year CAR 4WD S/BUS L/BU S/T M/T H/T T&T TOTAL
2011 Maj 6416 1649 733 366 366 1466 733 183 11912
min 3059 786 3496 174 174 699 349 174 8911
2017 Maj 10182 2819 11637 580 929 2326 1163 290 29926
Min 4854 1344 5548 276 441 1109 554 276 14402
2022 Maj 14949 4152 17085 852 2056 3415 1707 426 44642
Min 7127 1979 8145 405 977 1629 813 405 21480
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GOF-4-Leg intersection
2011 Maj 16764 15858 6796 1359 2718 906 453 453 45307
min 14609 13819 5922 1184 2369 789 394 394 39480
2017 Maj 26604 25166 10785 2156 6903 2301 1150 1150 76215
Min 23184 21930 9398 1879 6017 2004 1000 1000 66412
2022 Maj 39060 36649 15834 3166 15275 5091 2546 2546 120167
Min 34039 32198 13798 2758 13315 4434 2214 2214 104970
Table B-1-43 Summary of intersection and roundabout in nifas silk lafto sub city AADT
Intersection Pedestrian Average Annual Daily Traffic Total
&round about (ped/h) Major road Minor road AADT(2011E.C)
Kera Y - 560 31116 13068 44184
intersection
Goffa 4 -leg 2821 45310 39485 84795
intersection
Goffa Gabriela 1240 22406 10239 32645
Roundabout
Germen 1748 49331 30186 79517
Roundabout
Lafto Mebra 4 1585 24432 15600 40032
- leg
intersection
Garnent 2160 23670 16400 40070
roundabout
Hana Mariam 2786 18333 8742 27075
4 -leg
intersection
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Table B-1-44 NSL sub city EB regression method for PI

Junction types Predicted Observed Over W N expected PI Rank
crashes crashes dispersion
parameter
Kera 3 SG 92.55 6 0.52 0.02 7.73 -84.45 7th
Gofa 4 legintersection 5.84 11 0.24 0.05 10.75 4.9 4th
Gofa round about 20.30 13 0.24 0.05 13.4 -6.9 6th
Germen round about 14.23 20 0.24 0.05 19.72 5.48 3rd
Lafto 4 legintersection 13.36 18 0.24 0.05 17.77 4.41 5th
Garment roundabout 7.78 32 0.24 0.05 30.81 23.03 2nd
Hana Mariam 4 leg 19.83 61 0.24 0.05 58.96 39.13 1st
intersection
Sources: - own calculations.
Table B-1- 45 NSL sub city traffic accident diagnosis using critical rate method road section.
Road section Crash rate Critical rate Black section
(crashes/MEV) (crashes/MEV)
All Pedestrian All Pedestrian All Pedestrian
accident accident accident accident accident accident
2 1.17 0.87 2.095 1.608
4 1.04 0.78 1.26 1.44
6 1.42 1.04 1.998 1.51
7 1.67 1.27 2.02 1.55
9 0.49 0.34 1.94 1.46
10 0.59 0.42 1.98 1.5
12 1.02 0.7 1.99 1.52
14 3.45 0.63 2.08 1.61 Black section
16 3.54 2.66 2.06 1.58 Black section Black section
17 1.27 1.23 2.05 1.59
Source: own calculations
85 | P a g e

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IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT BLACK SPOT FOR

PEDESTRIAN CRASHES: CASE STUDY OF NIFAS SILK LAFTO SUB CITY,

WONDMAGEGN GETACHEW TEKELARGA

HAWASSA UNIVERSITY, HAWASSA, ETHIOPIA

WONDMAGEGN GETACHEW TEKELARGA

A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

HAWASSA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

(ESPECIALIZATION: ROAD AND TRANSPORT ENGINEERING)

acknowledged. Therefore, I recommended that it can be accepted as fulfilling the thesis

Dr. Bikila Teklu _________________ ________________

Name of Major advisor Signature Date

Name of the Chairperson Signature Date

Dr. Bikila Teklu __________________ ___________________

Name of Major Advisor Signature Date

Dr.___________________ __________________ ___________________

Name of Internal Examiner Signature Date

Dr.___________________ __________________ ___________________

Name of External Examiner Signature Date

been duly acknowledged.

Name: Wondmagegn Getachew

Place and date of submission: Hawassa, November, 2018

Table of Contents Page

4.1.3 Distribution of accident by road characteristics ........................................................... 32

LIST OF TABLES Page

LIST OF FIGURES Page

AACRA: Addis Ababa City Road Authority

AADT: Annual Average Daily Traffic

ADT: Average Daily Traffic

AANSLSC: Addis Ababa Nifas Silk Laft Sub City

AAP: Addis Ababa Police

AATA: Addis Ababa Transport Authority

AATP: Addis Ababa Traffic Police

NSLSCTP: Nifas Silk Laft Sub City Traffic Police

NSLSCP: Nifas Silk Laft Sub City Police

CS: Collector Straight

CSA: Central Statistics Authority

FP: Federal Police

GIS: Geographical Information System

PAS: Principal Arterial Straight

RTASE: Road Traffic Accident Safety Evaluation

SAS: Sub Arterial Straight

UN: United Nation

WHO: World Health Organization

Road Authority for their financial support to undertake this research.

challenges of developing countries, especially adversely affected sub Saharan African

past 11 years ( 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 1 0 E . C ) (CSA, 2010).

million Ethiopian birr annually on average (CSA, 2010).

administration, considering Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-city in particular.

1.2. Statement of the problem

1.3. Objectives of the study

1.3.1. General objective

crashes occurs in Addis Ababa.

1.3.2. Specific objectives

spot areas in Nifas Silk Lafto Sub-City roads.

To propose easily implementable engineering measures for the identified black

To estimate the average crash frequency of vehicle-pedestrian collision per year

based on Empirical Bayesian method.

1.4. Research question

This study was to answer the following questions:

 How are the magnitude of road traffic accidents?

Dr. Bikila Teklu _

Dr. Bikila Teklu _

Dr._ ___

Dr._ ___