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Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore

How to improve the competiveness of distributed energy resources in China T


with blockchain technology
Hou Jianchao , Wang Che, Luo Sai

College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: Distributed energy resources are located near users, which can realize energy cascade utilization and improve
Distributed energy resources the energy utilization efficiency. The features of distributed ledgers and smart contract auto-execution possessed
Blockchain technology by blockchain technology are in line with the requirements of distributed energy resources in billing and set-
Michael Porter five forces model tlement, which provides a direction for the application of blockchain technology in the distributed energy re-
SWOT model
sources. The integration of distributed energy resources in China with blockchain technology may break the
existing pattern where the production, transportation, distribution and sales of energy are centralized. This
paper first summarizes the current status of distributed energy resources in China and blockchain technology,
and then uses the Michael Porter five forces model to analyze the competitiveness of distributed energy re-
sources. The rivalry, threat of new entrants, threat of alternatives, bargaining power of suppliers, and bargaining
power of buyers in energy industry are presented and analyzed. Based on the competitiveness analysis, the
SWOT model is used to analyze the joint development model of “blockchain technology + distributed energy
resources”, and the feasibility of blockchain technology applied to distributed energy resources systems is re-
vealed. Finally, the paper puts forward the key conclusions that blockchain technology can enhance the com-
petitiveness of distributed energy resources as well as relevant policy recommendations.

1. Introduction Decentralized energy systems have been extensively discussed in aca-


demia (Hirsch et al., 2018; Di Silvestre et al., 2018; Soares et al., 2018).
For a long time, the centralized energy resources of China have It is in the vicinity of the user's location, not for the purpose of large-
unique advantages in achieving optimal resource allocation and im- scale long-distance transmission of electricity. The electricity generated
proving energy efficiency, which has played an important role in pro- is not only used locally, but also the excess power is sent to the power
moting economic and social development (Polaris Power grid. As it is located in the vicinity of users, the electricity generated by
Network, 2017). However, the resources, environment, and climate distributed energy resources can be consumed locally, which reduces
issues have continued to deteriorate; new energy, new equipment, new transmission and distribution losses (especially for remote areas) and
technologies have developed rapidly (combined cooling heating and reduces investment in power grid construction. At the same time, some
power system (CCHP Fig. 1; Pingkuo and Zhongfu, 2016) and dis- distributed energy resources use the “combined cooling heating and
tributed photovoltaic technologies, etc. (Polaris Power Network, 2018). power system” to achieve energy cascade utilization, which can im-
These situations lead to the inability of centralized energy sources in prove energy efficiency (Chudnovsky et al., 2010). In addition, dis-
terms of transmission loss, utilization efficiency, and environmental tributed energy resources mainly use clean energy such as solar energy
pollution (Zhan, 2016). And the advantages of distributed energy re- and natural gas, which can reduce air pollutant emissions. At present,
sources are demonstrated. China's distributed energy resources are mainly composed of natural
The “Distributed Generation Management Measures Consultation Draft” gas distributed energy resources and distributed photovoltaics
(National Energy Administration) published by the National Energy (Jianchao China Distributed Energy Network). The nodes of a dis-
Administration in 2011 defined distributed generation as (Sisi, 2015; tributed energy resources are both energy producers and energy con-
Huang, 2014): distributed energy resources are a power generation sumers. This feature has caused many problems like payment issues,
facility, a power generation system, or a joint supply system with power measurement issues, etc. Blockchain technology offers opportunities to
output capability and energy cascade utilization characteristic. solve these problems.


Corresponding author.
E-mail address: hdshuoyu@126.com (J. Hou).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119744
Received 13 September 2018; Received in revised form 19 May 2019; Accepted 9 September 2019
0040-1625/ © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

industry (Sikorski et al., 2017) and emission trading (Khaqqi et al.,


2018). In the future, the integration of blockchain technology and
distributed energy resources will probably break the existing pattern of
concentrated energy production, transmission, distribution and sell,
which is expected to subvert the traditional business models and profit
models of energy companies in China. Therefore, the research of
blockchain technology will be beneficial to promote the development of
distributed energy resources in China.
The geographical location of most of the areas covered in this paper
is shown in Fig. 2.

2. Status quo

2.1. Distributed energy resources

Fig. 1. The CCHP system of typical distributed gas turbine. Source: 2.1.1. Natural gas distributed energy
(Pingkuo and Zhongfu, 2016). As of the end of 2015, about 288 projects have been built or under
construction for natural gas distributed energy in China, with an in-
stalled capacity of about 11.12 GW. Among them, there are 133
In 2008, with the release of Bitcoin and the publication of Satoshi
buildings distributed energy, with installed capacity of about 0.23 GW;
Nakamoto's paper “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”
and 155 regional distributed energy, with installed capacity of
(Satoshi, 2009), the blockchain technology, as a basic core technology
10.89 GW. The main users are industrial parks, ecological parks, in-
of the Bitcoin system, began to be noticed. Blockchains are shared and
tegrated commercial buildings, data centers, schools, transportation
distributed data structures or ledgers that can securely store digital
hubs, office buildings, etc., of which the industrial park has the highest
transactions without using a central point of authority (Andoni et al.,
proportion of installed capacity and accounts for about 76.3% of the
2019), it is a distributed ledger leveraging consensus procedures and
total installed capacity. By the end of 2016, 51 natural gas distributed
cryptographic security (Ahla et al., 2019). In other words, blockchain
energy projects had been built and started operation, with an installed
technology is an open, transparent, decentralized database
capacity of 3.82 GW (Mainly located provinces and cities as displayed
(Swan, 2015). Openness and transparency are reflected in that the
in Table 2). Judging from all regions of the country, the sum of installed
database is shared and monitored by all network nodes (Ning et al.,
capacity in the Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan-Chongqing region, Beijing-
2016); decentralization is reflected in that the database can be viewed
Tianjin-Hebei, and the Pearl River Delta accounted for approximately
as a large, interactive spreadsheet, and all participants can access, up-
75.9% of the country's total installed capacity. However, in 2016, the
date and confirm that the data is authentic and reliable. The first ap-
cumulative installed capacity of distributed natural gas in China was
plication of the blockchain technology was to achieve decentralization
12 GW, which was less than 2% of the country's total installed capacity
of currency and payment instruments (Wright and De Filippi, 2015).
(Zhengping, 2017).
Since the blockchain technology has the transparency and reliability of
data, its application also extends from a single currency to different
types of assets. And the blockchain technology attempts to decentralize 2.1.2. Distributed photovoltaic
the entire market by recording the transactions in the form of creating As of the end of 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of China's
asset values. The specific applications include smart contracts, smart distributed photovoltaic was 29.66 GW, an increase of 190% over the
assets, decentralized applications, and decentralized autonomous en- previous year. In 2017, the new installed capacity of China's distributed
terprises (Dawei, 2016). When blockchain technology is applied to photovoltaic was 19.5 GW, an increase of 350% over the previous year,
distributed energy resources, distributed energy resources systems can accounting for nearly 40% of the total new installed capacity of pho-
become more efficient, cost less, responsive, and more diverse in energy tovoltaic. The cumulative grid-connected capacity of distributed pho-
supply and service. The distributed network structure of blockchain tovoltaic in eight provinces exceeded 1 GW, of which Zhejiang and
technology happens to coincide with the market-oriented structure of Shandong exceeded 4 GW, Jiangsu and Anhui exceeded 3 GW. The
distributed energy resources. (Table 1 compares the concept of block- relevant data is displayed in Figs. 3 and 4.
chain and distributed energy resources) (Ming et al., 2017). The fea-
tures of distributed ledgers and smart contract auto-execution possessed 2.2. Blockchain technology
by blockchain technology are in line with the requirements of dis-
tributed energy resources in billing and settlement, which provides a 2.2.1. Stages of blockchain technology
direction for the application of blockchain technology in distributed The application of blockchain technology in China can be divided
energy resources (Hou et al., 2018). It is a promising scenario to adopt into three stages: blockchain 1.0, blockchain 2.0 and blockchain 3.0.
blockchain in distributed energy market, such as the notable im- Blockchain 1.0 (Miaoxuan and Jia, 2018): blockchain technology is
plementation of Brooklyn micro-grid (Mengelkamp et al., 2018) and mainly applied to virtual currencies represented by Bitcoin. Blockchain
other pioneering applications of blockchain technology in the chemical 2.0: Blockchain technology is mainly used in other financial fields. It

Table 1
Comparison of the concept of blockchain technology and distributed energy resources.
Source: authors.
Characteristics Blockchain technology Distributed energy resources

Decentralization Rights and obligations of all nodes are equal. Equal and decentralized decision-making by the various distributed energy sources
Cooperative autonomy The network are jointly maintained by all nodes. Coordinated operations between different distributed energy sources
Marketization Trust mechanism without third parties. Independent trading of all distributed energy sources.
Smart contract Contract that can be executed automatically Automated trading is everywhere.

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Fig. 2. The geographical location of most of the areas covered in this paper. Source: Organized public information.

Table 2
Mainly located provinces and cities.
Source: Organized public information.
Area Number of projects completed or under Total installed capacity
construction (GW)

Beijing 17 4
Shanghai 35 1.95
Guangdong 9 2.595

aims to improve the efficiency of bank settlement payment and reduces


the cost of cross-border payment; it can also help the exchange to
achieve stock registration and transfer. Blockchain 3.0 still remains at
the research stage. Blockchain technology is mainly used in industries
other than finance, including energy and medical fields, to help solve Fig. 3. Provinces with cumulative grid-connected capacity of more than
trust problems and improve system operation efficiency. From 2014 to 1000 MW in distributed photovoltaic power generation in 2017. Source:
July 2017, the number of public patents for blockchain technology in Organized public information.
China increased from 2 to 428.

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

(ICO). In 2017, China's VC project financing amounted to more than


0.1877 billion US dollars, and there were 54 financing events (Fig. 6).
In January 2018, the blockchain industry's financing amounted to
0.1005 billion US dollars, and the number of financing events reached
19. As of the first half of 2017, China's ICO raised 0.3843 billion US
dollars. Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for more than
90% of the total. On September, 2017, the People's Bank of China and
other departments issued the “Announcement on Preventing the Risk of
Token Issuance Financing” (Chinese government official), which defined
ICO as an illegal activity, and the virtual currency exchange was forced
to close. Fig. 7 displays the geographical distribution of China's block-
chain projects.

2.2.4. Blockchain application


2.2.4.1. Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the most successful blockchain application
field by far. The website coinmarketcap.com shows that as of April 10,
Fig. 4. The proportion of China's photovoltaic power generation installed ca- 2018, the current price per bitcoin was as high as $6728.17. China has
pacity by the end of September 2017. Source: Organized public information. the largest number of bitcoin mining pools in the world, and as
displayed in the Table 3, eight of the world top ten bitcoin pools are
2.2.2. Blockchain group located in China.
2.2.2.1. ChinaLedger. ChinaLedger was established in April 2016. The
Alliance Secretariat is located in the Wanxiang Blockchain Labs which 2.2.4.2. Energy blockchain. In May 2016, the world's first energy
belong to the Wanxiang Group. blockchain laboratory was established in China. The application
scenarios of blockchain were proposed, including demand side
2.2.2.2. China blockchain research alliance (CBRA). CBRA was management, power metering and market trading.
established by the Global Shared Financial Forum for 100 (GSF100),
and LeTV Financial was appointed director-general of the GSF100. 2.2.4.3. Public welfare. In 2017, Everbright Bank began to apply
blockchain technology in “Mother Water Cellar” to realize the
2.2.2.3. Financial blockchain Shenzhen Consortium. The financial supervision of donation information and the traceability of donation
blockchain cooperation alliance (Fig. 5) was established in June fees.
2016. The organization has brought together 31 financial companies,
including Weizhong Bank, Jingdong Finance, etc. 2.3. Policy environment

2.2.3. Blockchain financing 2.3.1. Distributed energy resources


Currently, there are two types of financing methods for blockchain In 2007, “The 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development”
projects: traditional venture capital (VC) and Initial Coin Offering (National Energy Administration) listed the distributed energy system

Fig. 5. The participating institutions of three major blockchain alliances in China. Source: Organized public information.

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Fig. 6. Numbers of China blockchain project financing. Source: Organized public information.

Fig. 7. The geographical distribution of China's blockchain projects. Source: Organized public information.

Table 3 energy resources for the first time. In 2016, “The “13th Five-Year Plan for
Distribution and market share of the world's top ten bitcoin pools in 2017. Energy Development” (Jianchao National Development and Reform
Source: Organized public information. Commission) proposed to attach great importance to the development
Rank Country Mining pool Proportion of distributed energy; to speed up the construction of distributed energy
projects and natural gas peak-shaving power station; to optimize the
1 China AntPool 17.56% solar energy development pattern and prioritize the development of
2 China BTC.TOP 10.81%
distributed PV. The remaining policies are displayed in Table 4.
3 China F2Pool 9.65%
4 China BTC.com 9.35%
5 China ViaBTC 7.79%
6 China BTCC 6.70% 2.3.2. Blockchain technology
7 Czech Republic SlushPool 6.43% In October 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information
8 Russia BitFury 6.22%
9 China Bixin 5.10%
Technology released the “White Paper on China's Blockchain Technology
10 China BW.COM 4.14% and Application Development (2016)” (Ministry of Industry and
Information Technology), which introduced the blockchain technology
in detail. And then in December 2016, the blockchain was first pub-
as the cutting-edge technology for the first time. And then in 2013, “The lished as a strategic frontier technology and disruptive technology in
12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” (Jianchao Chinese govern- the in the “Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the
ment official website) proposed to develop distributed energy vigor- National Informationization Plan for the 13th Five-Year Plan”
ously, coordinated the comprehensive utilization of traditional energy, (Jianchao Chinese government official website) issued by the State
new energy and renewable energy as well as achieved the coordinated Council. Other relevant policies are displayed in Table 5.
development of distributed energy resources and centralized energy
supply. The plan set clear targets for the development of distributed

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Table 4
Related policies on distributed energy.
Source: Organized public information.
Date Department The name of document/announcement

2010 State Grid Corporation of China Technical Regulations for Distributed Power Access to the Power Grid
2011 National Development and Reform Commission Guidance on the Development of Natural gas distributed energy
2011 The State Council Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Plan for Controlling
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the “12th Five-Year Plan”
2012 National Energy Administration Research Report on the Development Trend of New Energy Industry
2012 Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China the “12th Five-Year Plan” for National Urban Gas Development
2012 National Development and Reform Commission Notice on the Release of the First Batch of National Natural Gas Distributed
Energy Demonstration Projects
2013 The State Council the “12th Five-Year Plan” for Energy Development
2013 National Energy Administration Interim Management Measures for Distributed Power Generation
2013 National Energy Administration Notice on Printing and Distributing the Interim Management Measures of
Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects
2014 National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, Ministry of Detailed Implementation Rules for Natural Gas Distributed Energy
Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China Demonstration Project
2014 National Energy Administration Notice on Further Implementing Policies Related to Distributed Photovoltaic
Power Generation
2014 National Energy Administration Notice on Promoting the Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power
Generation Application Demonstration Areas
2016 The State Council The 13th Five-year Plan for Energy Development
2016 National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration The 13th Five-year Plan for Natural Gas
2016 National Energy Administration The 13th Five-year Plan for Solar Energy
2017.6 National Development and Reform Commission Opinions on Accelerating the Use of Natural Gas
2017.7 National Energy Administration Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for
Renewable Energy Development
2018.3 National Energy Administration Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2018

3. Competitiveness analysis State Grid, it is also in a monopoly state, and the problem of grid-
connection has always existed (China-heating). This section uses the
At present, the distributed energy resources development in China is Michael Porter five forces model (Fig. 8) to analyze competitiveness of
still dominated by the government, which is reflected in two aspects: on the government-led distributed energy resources (Table 7).
the one hand, while providing subsidies for some projects under con-
struction, the government controls the pricing power of related elec-
tricity prices. For example, the feed-in tariffs of natural gas power 3.1. Rivalry
generation in China are mostly approved by the government (such as
benchmark electricity prices). Once the feed-in tariff is determined, it 3.1.1. Natural gas distributed energy
will remain unchanged for a long time; Changes in upstream fuel prices As a low-carbon fossil energy source, natural gas has stronger power
cannot be delivered to the electricity price end, effectively and timely. supply stability. In recent years, China has vigorously developed nat-
In addition, on December 19, 2017, National Development and Reform ural gas energy. Natural gas distributed energy achieves energy cascade
Commission issued the “Notice of the National Development and Reform utilization through the combined cooling heating and power mode,
Commission on the Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects whose comprehensive energy utilization efficiency is above 70%
in 2018" (Jianchao National Development and Reform Commission), (Song Weiming, 2016). This energy supply mode is near the load center,
stating that the feed-in tariffs of the Resource Area I to III (Table 6 which saves transmission and distribution investment, improves energy
displays China's three types of solar energy resources) were 0.1101, utilization efficiency and reduces the loss in transportation. In addition,
0.0955, and 0.0808 US dollar/kWh (1 US dollar = 6.8097 RMB), re- natural gas distributed energy is a kind of equipment that can be started
spectively. The electricity price of distributed photovoltaic power and shut down quickly, which achieves the “peak cut” of natural gas
generation project, which adopts the mode that all electricity is sold to and electricity and improves the reliability and safety of energy supply
the grid company and is executed according to the electricity price of system. However, higher natural gas price and the situation of rich coal,
the photovoltaic power station in the local resource area. On the other less oil and less gas in China make the cost of natural gas distributed
hand, the relevant institutional mechanisms are formulated by the energy generation 2–3 times that of ordinary coal-fired power stations.
government rather than dominating by the market. For instance, for In addition, owing to the insufficient research of gas generator sets in
small-scale natural gas distributed energy projects, it is still very diffi- China, more than 90% of the units need to be imported from abroad
cult to purchase low-cost natural gas spot through third-party access (Zhipeng, 2016), which makes it difficult to reduce the total investment
(TPA) to pipeline network infrastructure. From the perspective of the of the project.

Table 5
Related policies on blockchain technology.
Source: Organized public information.
Date Department The name of document/announcement

2013.12 The People's Bank of China Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risk


2016.12 The State Council Notice on Printing and Distributing the National Informationization Plan of the 13th Five-Year Plan
2017.7 The State Council Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the Development Plan of a New Generation Artificial Intelligence
2017.6 The People's Bank of China The “13th Five-Year” Development Plan for the Information Technology in China's Financial Industry
2017.9 The People's Bank of China Announcement on Preventing the Risk of Token Issuance Financing
2017.10 The State Council Guidance on Actively Promoting Innovation and Application of Supply Chain

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Table 6
China's three types of solar energy resources.
Source: Organized public information.
Resource area Areas

I Ningxia, Qinghai Haixi, Gansu Jiayuguan, Wuwei, Zhangye, Jiuquan, Dunhuang, Jinchang, Xinjiang Hami, Tacheng, Altay, Karamay, Inner Mongolia except
Chifeng, Tongliao, Xing'an League, Hulunbeier
II Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan, Yunnan, Chifeng, Tongliao, Xing'an League, Hulunbeier, Hebei Chengde, Zhangjiakou, Tangshan,
Qinhuangdao, Shanxi Datong, Shuozhou, Xinzhou, Yangquan, Shaanxi Yulin, Yan'an, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang other than the Resource Area I
III Areas except Resource Area I,Resource Area Ⅱ

Fig. 8. Michael Porter five forces model about distributed energy resources in China. Source: authors.

Table 7
Summary of competitiveness analysis.
Source: authors.
Competitiveness analysis Abstract Conclusion

Rivalry Natural gas distributed energy is the most widely used and most efficient Natural gas distributed energy is the most competitive distributed
distributed energy resources, but it is still limited by the shortage of energy resources, but it should form an energy mix mode with other
natural gas resources and the immature core technologies. Distributed renewable distributed energy resources.
photovoltaic is the most widely used renewable distributed energy
resources, but it has the problem of unstable power generation and
difficult grid-connection.
Threat of new entrants Distributed wind power accounts for only 2% of China's wind power At present, new entrants are not competitive enough, but their potential
installed capacity, but in recent years, relevant policies has been is huge.
introduced by the Chinese government to vigorously develop distributed
wind power. Raw materials of distributed biomass energy are low in cost
and easy to obtain, but current technology costs are high.
Threat of alternatives Centralized energy, which accounts for more than 80% of the country's Centralized energy are the most competitive energy in China and
electricity generation, remains China's main energy. cannot be replaced in a short time.
Bargaining power of Natural gas resources are scarce; Crystalline silicon in the photovoltaic The bargaining power of natural gas distributed energy and distributed
Suppliers industry has high technical barriers; Raw materials of biomass energy are photovoltaic suppliers is strong, and the bargaining power of biomass
readily available. energy is weak.
Bargaining power of Buyers Most industries in China still use centralized energy, and there is The bargaining power of buyers is strong.
insufficient demand for distributed energy resources.

3.1.2. Distributed photovoltaic area is used to install a solar photovoltaic system, it can be equipped
Two outstanding characteristics, zero-emission and zero-pollution, with a 1 TW of photovoltaic power generation system. Compared to
make solar energy a more useful resource and play an important role in other forms of power generation such as water and wind, the layout of
China's energy transformation (Zhou, 2014). The total annual solar the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is more flexible
radiation in China is 3350–8400 MJ/m2, and the median value (the and can be installed on the top of buildings (Hou et al., 2018). How-
middlemost value of the total solar radiation in all parts of China) is ever, due to the instability of illumination, photovoltaic power gen-
5860 MJ/m2, which is equivalent to 24.96 billion tons of standard coal. eration is unstable, which causes adverse effects on voltage stability,
China's housing construction total area that can be utilized by solar power quality during grid-connection. In addition, the current devel-
energy systems reached 20.2 billion square meters. According to a opment of energy storage technology in the photovoltaic industry chain
conservative estimate of installing 100 W of photovoltaic cells per is not mature enough and the economy is not high (Yipeng, 2017).
square meter, there will be an installed capacity of 2 TW, if half of total

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

3.2. Threat of new entrants

3.2.1. Distributed wind power


In May 2017, the “Notice on Relevant Requirements for Accelerating
the Construction of Distributed Wind Power Projects” (National Energy
Administration) was issued by the National Energy Administration to
promote the development of distributed wind power. In addition, the
plan announced by Henan Province includes 124 decentralized wind
power projects with a total scale of 2.11 GW; the plan announced by
Shanxi Province includes 105 decentralized wind power projects with a
total installed capacity of 987.3 MW; from 2018 to 2020, Hebei Pro-
vince plans to develop distributed wind power of 4.3 GW by the end of
2017, the installed capacity of distributed wind power in China ac-
counted for less than 2%. In January 2018, China's first distributed
wind power project landed in Liaoning Province with an installed ca-
pacity of 7.5 MW. It is estimated that the annual approval scale of
distributed wind power in China will exceed 10 GW, and the installed
capacity will be installed more than 5 GW per year after 2019. Dis-
tributed wind power is suitable for development in low wind speed
areas. Central, eastern and southern China are generally in a low wind Fig. 9. The structure chart of China's power generation installed capacity in
speed region, the annual average generating equipment availability 2017. Source: Organized public information.
hours in the wind farm with an annual average wind speed of 5 m/s can
reach 2000 h, and there are 1 billion kW of wind energy resources with
3.3.1.1. Coal. China is rich in coal and is the world's largest coal
economic development value in these wind farms whose development
mining country (Li et al., 2015). The current annual output of coal
potential is extremely huge (Jianchao Polaris Wind Power Grid
exceeds 2.5 billion tons, accounting for 40% of the world's total
Network). The three main advantages of distributed wind power are:
production, half of which is used for power generation. In 2017, the
first, it helps solve the problem of interference caused by wind power
installed capacity of coal-fired power was 1.02 TW, accounting for 58%
access to large power grids (Yucong, 2014); second, distributed wind
of the total installed capacity. In terms of power generation, coal-fired
power is located near the load center, which is conducive to con-
power generation was 4200 TWh, accounting for up to 67%, which was
sumption and avoids the problem of “wind curtailment”; third, it solves
the main force of current power generation in China. The advantages of
the problem of energy loss caused by long distance transportation.
coal power are mature technology, stable and efficient power
However, wind power requires a separate site, which increases con-
generation as well as lower cost. But its main disadvantage is that it
struction costs (Hejun, 2014).
affects air quality seriously. In recent years, the coal-fired power
generation technology in China is at the forefront of the world, e.g.,
3.2.2. Distributed biomass energy the emission concentration of the third power plant of waigaoqiao is:
Biomass gas is obtained by converting combustible material such as dust emission is 7.55 mg/m3; sulfur dioxide is 17.7 mg/m3; nitrogen
crop straw and forest waste as raw materials (Jianchao China oxide is 15.19 mg/m3, these have reached the gas fuel emission index.
Distributed Energy Network). Among them, straw accounts for 51% of In the future, coal power will still the main force of power generation in
China's total agricultural output, and its annual output is about 600 China (Zhou et al., 2013).
million tons, of which about 300 million tons can be used as fuel and it
is equivalent to 150 million tons of standard coal. The availability of 3.3.1.2. Hydropower. Fig. 11 displays the installed capacity and
forestry waste is about 900 million tons per year, of which about 300 proportion of hydropower in recent years. In 2017, the hydropower
million tons have energy utilization value, and it is equivalent to 200 generation in China reached 1081.88 TWh, and hydropower installed
million tons of standard coal. Biomass resources are characterized by capacity reached 341.19 GW, accounting for 19% of the country's total
diverse sources, low energy density, and scattered distribution, which installed power capacity. The installed capacity of hydropower
determine their suitability for the development of distributed energy resources that can be developed in China is about 660 GW, and the
resources. Distributed biomass energy can be used to build small power annual power generation is about 3 000 TWh. If running for 100 years,
stations or as residential gas. However, utilization methods of tradi- it is equivalent to 100 billion tons of standard coal. Hydropower is
tional biogas in China are mainly based on household biogas digesters, second only to coal in the total remaining recoverable amount of
with small scale and low efficiency; large and medium-sized biogas conventional energy resources. The hydropower development degree
projects still have large gaps compared with foreign technologies, and has reached 75% (Jianchao Polaris Wind Power Grid Network). The
the level of equipment and manufacturing technology is not high remaining undeveloped parts include the Yarlung Zangbo River, etc.,
(Chuangzhi et al., 2016). At present, large and medium-sized livestock which will involve international problems in actual development.
manure biogas projects in China have not been combined with cogen- According to the statistics, the installed capacity and power
eration, normal temperature fermentation or nearly medium tempera- generation of the hydropower is 2.2 times and 4 times that of wind
ture fermentation with external heating source cannot maintain stable power respectively; the installed capacity and power generation of
gas production in winter and the net energy output rate is very low. hydropower is 2.6 times and 10 times that of photovoltaics respectively.
Hydropower is currently the most economical renewable energy source,
3.3. Threat of alternatives and the average feed-in tariff is about half of that of wind power and
about one-third of that of photovoltaics. Hydropower is the most
3.3.1. Centralized energy mature and widely used clean energy in China.
The centralized energy, which is manly composed of coal, hydro-
power, nuclear power, is still the mainstay of power generation. Fig. 9 3.3.1.3. Nuclear power. Fig. 12 shows the installed capacity and
and Fig. 10 are respectively the structure chart of China's power gen- proportion of nuclear power for nearly 10 years. The installed
eration installed capacity and China's generating capacity in 2017. capacity of nuclear power in 2017 was 35.82 GW, and the annual

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Fig. 10. The structure chart of China's generating capacity in 2017. Source: Organized public information.

power generation was 248.07 TWh, accounting for 5% of the total 3.4. Bargaining power of suppliers
power generation. The relevant departments plan to install 58 GW by
2020, 120 GW and 800 TWh of power generation by 2030, which is 3.4.1. Natural gas
equivalent to 100 million tons standard coals; uranium resources are At present, scarce natural gas resources, high prices (AsiguliYasin,
scarce in China, 339 tons of uranium are required to build a 1 million 2016) as well as pricing power in the hands of the government make
kilowatt unit, as well as 15 tons of uranium 235 and uranium 238 are suppliers have an absolute advantage at the time of bargaining. How-
consumed each year, and the dependence on uranium imports has ever, China's basic research on gas generator sets is insufficient, and
exceeded 90%. At present, nuclear power cannot be the main energy in manufacturing lag behind market demand, which results in more than
China, and it can only be a supplementary method. 90% of the units currently being imported from abroad. Moreover, the
operating and maintenance costs of core equipment such as gas turbines
remain high, leading suppliers to absolute advantage in bargaining
3.3.1.4. Centralized photovoltaic energy and wind energy. Centralized power.
photovoltaic and centralized wind power generation are characterized
by intermittent and volatility, so energy resources themselves will have 3.4.2. Photovoltaics
a strong impact on the main network when they are connected to the The technical barriers for the production of crystalline silicon ma-
grid in a large capacity and centralized way (Haijun et al., 2017). The terials are very high, which are monopolized by ten major producers
phenomenon of solar and wind curtailment are still serious owing to the around the world. And in 2017, the top ten component manufacturers
relatively concentrated layout of centralized energy. For example, shipped up to 29.2 GW, accounting for about 57% of China's market.
China's wind curtailment in 2017 was 41.9 TWh, and the rate of The small number of suppliers and the serious shortage of silicon ma-
wind curtailment was 12%; solar curtailment was 7.3 TWh, and the rate terial supply have kept the price of crystalline silicon high. However,
of solar curtailment was 6%. Calculated according to the minimum with the expansion of investment in the world's major crystalline silicon
standard for benchmark prices of renewable energy, this means that the producers, the supply has increased and the price of polysilicon mate-
asset owners of renewable energy generation lost at least 4.5083 billion rials has plummeted. The average price in February 2018 was 1.9032US
US dollars. dollars per ton, 15% lower than last month. The above situation reflects
that the cost of PV companies has been reduced, so the bargaining

Fig. 11. The installed capacity and proportion of hydropower. Source: Organized public information.

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Fig. 12. The installed capacity and proportion of nuclear power. Source: Organized public information.

power of suppliers is gradually weakened. In summary, suppliers have which can basically meet the requirements of blockchain applica-
strong bargaining power, but their bargaining power has a tendency to tions. In the long run, the energy router can undertake the opera-
decrease. tional tasks of the distributed energy resources system. It is used to
control the real-time energy conversion and information flow of the
3.5. Bargaining power of buyers system nodes. By carrying distributed computing and data storage
modules and pre-setting corresponding programs or algorithms,
At present, centralized power supply is still the main energy supply Energy routers are well compatible with blockchain network node
way in China, and compared with it, the distributed energy resources functions and undertake the task of decentralized data storage,
have some shortcomings: the transaction volume is very small, the computing and interactive verification (Ming et al., 2017), which
transaction method is single, each node can only sell electricity to the provides technical feasibility for blockchain technology +dis-
State Grid Corporation or China Southern Power Grid Company tributed energy resources systems.
Limited, cannot directly trade; the relevant institutional mechanisms
are not perfect, users do not have obvious demand for distributed en- This section uses the SWOT model (Table 9) to analyze the combi-
ergy resources. To sum up, buyers have strong bargaining power. nation of blockchain technology and distributed energy resources sys-
tems in the energy mix mode.
4. Analysis and discussion
4.2. Strengths
4.1. SWOT analysis
4.2.1. Optimization of measurement and certification
Through competitiveness analysis, we can find that the competi- Measurement and certification is an important basis for promoting
tiveness of centralized energy in China is the strongest, and compared distributed energy resources to be open and fair. Aside from existing
with it, distributed energy resources are not competitive enough, but energy transactions, a wide variety of market transactions are involved
their potential is huge (Xi, 2017). And distributed energy resources can in distributed energy resources systems including ancillary services,
solve disadvantages of centralized energy, such as large transmission emissions trading and even financial transactions, therefore credible
loss and huge operating costs of central organizations. Hence, dis- measurement and authoritative certification are required. The dis-
tributed energy resources require new technologies to spur its potential, tributed ledger technology and the consensus mechanism of the
and the blockchain technology has created opportunities for the de- blockchain ensure that the data cannot be falsified privately, and
velopment of it (Figs. 13 and 14 & Table 8). guarantee the authority of measurement and certification, thus they can
The feasibility of blockchain technology applied to distributed en- play an important role in the measurement and certification of dis-
ergy resources systems is as follows: tributed energy resources (Yixi, 2016; Yong and Feiyue, 2016). For
example, blockchain technology can provide a fair and open metering
1 In 2014, China launched a new round of power system reform. The platform for green certificates or quota system in carbon trading, pro-
power system reform aims to break the monopoly of State Grid vide a recording platform for data of smart meters or power system
Corporation of China on buying electricity and selling electricity, PMUs and reduce the proportion of bad data and ensure data credibility
and promote direct transactions by market players. Among them, through a consensus mechanism, as well as be used for measurement
the monopoly of the power-selling side was broken is the focus. In and certification of cross-energy systems in distributed energy resources
the future, the power-selling company will include three major ca- systems.
tegories: power sales companies of State Grid Corporation of China,
power sales companies with distribution network operation rights,
and independent power sales companies. All parties can participate 4.2.2. Construction of market transactions
in market transactions, and the main role of State Grid Corporation Transactions in future distributed energy resources systems are di-
of China is to transmit electricity, which provides policy feasibility versified, and the application of blockchain in trading has unique ad-
for the development of blockchain technology + distributed energy vantages. First, the clearing of all transactions in the blockchain is
resources systems. shared by all nodes in the system and without the centralized trading
2 In the short term, multi-agent technology and distributed database organization, which greatly reduces transaction costs (Jian et al.,
technology have already matured applications in power systems, 2017). Secondly, the information in the blockchain is transparent and
authentic, which can realize the symmetry of information and the

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Fig. 13. Traditional centralized energy mode. Source: authors.

effectiveness of the market (Shuang et al., 2018); Thirdly, each node in efficient and transparent; the distributed energy resources enable tra-
the blockchain backs up all the data in the system, making the trans- ditional users to realize the transition from consumers to prosumers;
action records cannot be tampered with and ensuring the security and energy micro-transactions, which is based on C2C, can also be im-
reliability of the transaction system (Shanshan, 2017); In addition, the plemented on blockchain trading platforms.
blockchain can give each transaction a unique ID and record the
transaction time. The data is recorded in the blockchain and cannot be 4.2.3. Development of energy finance
tampered privately, which guarantees that the source of all electricity Energy finance is an important extension of the construction of
can be traced back and used in carbon trading and green certificate distributed energy resources systems. Attracting the injection of capital
trading, etc. Finally, when trading conditions are met in the blockchain, from all parties will further accelerate the construction of distributed
smart contracts will be signed and then executed automatically, which energy resources systems, and innovative business modes such as
ensures the execution and reliability of the contract and is conducive to crowd-funding have become a new channel for financing distributed
the fairness and reliability of the trading market. For example, in pace energy resources, achieving efficient and rapid construction of dis-
with the reform of the electricity market, bilateral transactions between tributed energy resources. The blockchain technology for energy crowd
power retailers and power producers based on blockchain will be more funding can provide endorsement for startup companies and without

Centralized Energy

Smart
Smart electric meter
electric meter
Industrial user Distributed
energy resources

Power grid

Distributed
energy storage

Smart electric meter Smart electric meter


Distributed
energy resources
Distributed
energy resources
Information flow

Power structure Commercial user Civil user

Fig. 14. Distributed energy resources + blockchain mode. Source: authors.

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Table 8
Comparison of traditional mode and blockchain mode.
Source: authors.
Power source Energy use situation Data Transaction form Transaction cost

Traditional mode Power grid (not traceable) High loss Central organization collection, B2B2C,C2B2C High
data opaque
Blockchain mode Internal energy storage is the main, supplemented by the Close to the user, low Authentic, real-time, open and P2P Low
power grid (traceable) loss transparent

the need for an intermediary as a third party, which greatly reduces the 4.3.3. The lack of responsible parties in smart contracts
cost of financing and enables investors to receive dividends on time. For There are a series of ethical issues, such as contract authorization,
instance, crowd-funding of distributed photovoltaic is to achieve free responsible person determination of the defaulting party since the
trade of assets through asset financing. Moreover, photovoltaic power contract party of the smart contract is often a virtual account rather
generation revenue can also be directly fed back to investors through than a natural person (Kai and Xiaomin, 2016). The application of fu-
blockchain technology. The securitization and financialization of other ture blockchain in distributed energy resources systems need to in-
energy assets such as transmission and distribution lines can also be troduce digital identity authentication services to provide different
used for efficient financing and trading on the blockchain platform. types of numerical identity authentication services. In addition, policy
protection and supervision are required to ensure the legitimacy and
rationality of the main body in the blockchain.
4.3. Weaknesses
4.4. Opportunities
4.3.1. Insufficient computing power and response speed
The computing power and response speed of the blockchain still
4.4.1. Popular blockchain technology
exist problems (Xue et al., 2017). For example, as the most mature
At present, a large number of enterprises in the fields of Internet and
blockchain application, bitcoin can only process 7 transactions per
IT in China have begun to enter the blockchain industry. For example,
second on average. The transaction confirmation has a delay of at least
Wanxiang Group Holding PLC established the Wanxiang Blockchain
10 min. Furthermore, the increase in the number of blocks also puts
Lab in September 2015 to research blockchain industry and establish
higher demands on database capacity and bandwidth. More applica-
the first blockchain cloud platform in China –Wancloud. In addition, a
tions in distributed energy resources, such as collaborative optimization
venture capital fund focusing on the blockchain field has been estab-
in an energy mix system, have larger data volumes and higher re-
lished by Wanxiang. More than 30 blockchain startups have been in-
quirements for real-time performance. In the future, blockchain tech-
vested globally, with a cumulative investment of over 30 million US
nology with shorter update intervals needs to be established, including
dollars. In September 2016, Wanxiang Group announced that 29.3199
database technology with higher throughput, faster data communica-
billion US dollars in the next seven years will be invested to build a
tion technologies, more efficient consensus mechanism before the
“Wanxiang Innovation Energy Gathering City” with new energy ve-
blockchain technology is applied in the energy system with large data
hicles as its core industry in Hangzhou. So far, the project, which has
processing and high real-time requirements.
become the world's largest blockchain application project, will apply
blockchain technology in all aspects (Meihua, 2016). What's more,
4.3.2. Fault tolerance challenge Wanda Internet Technology Group actively participates in open-source
Blockchain technology is an asynchronous consensus network, alliance of international blockchain, focusing on promoting the devel-
which does not theoretically have a consistent algorithm to ensure that opment of domestic open-source blockchain technology, and devel-
the system can reach consensus and achieve Byzantine fault tolerance oping a safe and autonomous platform for the blockchain technology.
(Xuan and Yamin, 2017). At present, proof-of-work mechanisms
(mining) in Bitcoin use incentives to solve Byzantine fault tolerance and 4.4.2. Virtual power plant
thus guarantee the security of the system, but the corresponding cost is In the future, many distributed power sources, such as distributed
the large amount of computing resources and the delay caused by wind power, distributed photovoltaic, etc., will be integrated into the
workload verification. In the future, the application of blockchain will operation of large power grids (Rafiei, 2014). However, there is a small
inevitably adopt an innovative consensus mechanism that does not capacity in the distributed power supply, and renewable energy is in-
require mining, and reduce the system's consumption of computing termittent and random. An important way to achieve the coordination
resources on the basis of maintaining system security and robustness. of different virtual power generation resources is to carry out

Table 9
SWOT analysis summary.
Source: authors.
SWOT analysis Summary

Strengths 1. Blockchain technology can optimize measurement and certification of distributed energy resources.
2. Blockchain technology can build market transactions for distributed energy resources.
3. Energy finance is conducive to the financing of distributed energy resources.
Weaknesses 1. Computing power and response speed of blockchain technology is weak.
2. The fault-tolerant challenge and the proof mechanism of the asynchronous consensus network is not mature.
3. The responsible party of the smart contract is not clear.
Opportunities 1. Blockchain technology is popular.
2. Virtual power plant.
Threats 1. Monopoly of the energy industry.
2. The inherent complexity and physical laws of the energy system.
3. The legal and regulatory system for blockchain needs to be improved.

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

Fig. 15. The application of blockchain in virtual power sources trading. Source: authors.

centralized management and unified scheduling through the wide- important point that needs to be fully taken into account. In addition,
spread aggregation of distributed energy resources, demand response, the concentration of the energy industry is still high, and the possibility
and distributed energy storage in virtual power plants, thereby synergy of monopoly is also great. Therefore, more research needs to be in-
between different virtual power generation resources can be achieved vested in subject access, data confidentiality, and data anti-attack
(Zhinong et al., 2013). A low-cost, open and transparent system plat- abilities.
form for the transaction of virtual power generation resources can be
can provided by the blockchain. As displayed in the Fig. 15, a virtual 4.5.2. The inherent complexity and physical laws of the energy system
power plant information platform and a virtual power generation re- When applied to money, payment, and banking, the physical system
source market trading platform are established based on the blockchain of the blockchain is relatively simple, which often involves numerical
system, and the virtual power plant and the virtual power generation balance (Zhijiu and Yi, 2017). And the essence is the exchange of in-
resource can be bidirectionally selected on the information platform formation. The energy system is a complex physical system, which is
(Wei et al., 2017). Whenever virtual power generation resources are faced with measuring bad data, modeling the relationship between
determined to join a virtual power plant, the blockchain system will different types of complex physical quantities, and real-time operation
automatically generate smart contracts for the agreement between the of the system. The grid-connection of large number of distributed en-
two parties. At the same time, the contribution rate (the size of the ergy resources will affect the power system and the power quality
workload) generated by each virtual power source for the entire energy (Hongjian, 2015).
system is open and transparent, and it can carry out reasonable mea-
surement and certification, stimulate users and distributed energy re- 4.5.3. Imperfect legal and regulatory system
sources to participate in the operation of virtual power generation re- The complete concealment of personal information by blockchain
sources. In the blockchain market trading platform, transactions technology may lead to illegal activities that can evade regulatory de-
between virtual power plants and ordinary users can be achieved partments (Yongzhen, 2017). Energy is an important field related to the
through smart contracts in the form of long-term power purchase national economy and the people's livelihood, and its transaction and
agreements, as well as real-time trading on the trading platform. operation still require strict supervision. However, there is still a lack of
Among them, the grid companies are only responsible for power research on how to incorporate the blockchain technology into reg-
transmission and do not participate in transactions. ulatory systems.

4.5. Threats 5. Conclusion and policy recommendation

4.5.1. Monopoly of the energy industry 5.1. Research conclusions


The monopoly of energy systems poses a threat to blockchain in-
formation security (Hua, 2016). In the Bitcoin system, the nodes par- This paper first analyzes the current competitiveness of China's
ticipating in the whole network computing are dispersed, hence the cost distributed energy resources through the Michael Porter five forces
of tampering with the network is much larger than the revenue. model, and then analyzes the joint development mode of “blockchain
Therefore, the possibility of launching a “51% attack” on the Bitcoin technology + distributed energy resources” through SWOT model, and
network is close to zero (Courtois, 2016). However, in the energy in- draws the following conclusions:
dustry, more than 51% of the computing resources are likely to be
mastered by the same interest group, and the security of the blockchain 1 At present, the reform of the traditional centralized and extensive
will be greatly threatened. The energy system is related to the national economy is underway in China. The highly efficient distributed
economy and the people's livelihood, and information security is an energy resources, which are mainly based on clean energy, have

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J. Hou, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744

huge potential. Various types of supportive and guiding policies blockchain and implement supervision based on the unified stan-
were promulgated by the Chinese government. For example, “the dard.
13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” (Jianchao National 2 The government should establish research teams about “blockchain
Development and Reform Commission), “Notice on Conducting Pilots technology + distributed energy resources” mode to study the
of Distributed Power Generation Market Trading” (Jianchao Chinese coupling of blockchain technology and energy industry, as well as
government official website), “Guidance for Energy Work in 2018″ related technologies such as big data and cloud computing.
(Jianchao National Energy Administration) etc., proposed to attach 3 The government should strengthen the promotion of “blockchain
great importance to the development of distributed energy re- technology + distributed energy resources”, especially for en-
sources; accelerate the construction of distributed energy resources terprises and developers, so that they can better understand the
projects; optimize the development pattern of solar energy; give advantages of new technologies in order to promote the develop-
priority to the development of distributed photovoltaic power gen- ment of this mode.
eration. However, the competitiveness of distributed energy re-
sources is still weak, which is reflected in the fact that the internal Acknowledgement
technologies of distributed energy resources are still immature, the
bargaining power of suppliers is extremely strong, and the demand This paper is supported by Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science
of buyers is insufficient. Conversely, the centralized energy as a Planning Project (Granted no. 2017BJB008).
substitute still has an overwhelming advantage. To enhance the
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Polaris Wind Power Grid Network: <http://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20170906/848135. Zhou, J., Luo, Z., Zhu, Y., et al., 2013. Estimation of Mercury Emissions from Coal-Fired
shtml>, accessed on Sep 6th, 2017. Power Plants in China. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 21–27.
Rafiei, S., 2014. Application of Distributed Generation Sources for Micro-grid Power
Quality Enhancement. Jianchao Hou is an associate professor in Shanghai University of Electric Power. He got a
Satoshi, N.S., 2009. Bitcoin:a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Consulted. Ph.D. in Management from North China Electric Power University. His research interests
Shanshan, G., 2017. Implementation of the Supply Chain's Trusted Traceability Query on are: energy economy, electricity market optimization. He has published more than 10
the Blockchain. Dalian Maritime University. papers in academic journals such as Renewable Energy, International Journal of Energy
Shuang, H., BaoMing, P., ShunXi, L., Xiangze, L., Xiaodong, Z., Shuai, W., 2018. Research, and China Power, etc., including 5 SCI search papers.
Application of block chain technology in digital asset security transaction. Comput.
Syst. Appl. 27 (3).
Sikorski, J.J., Haughton, J., Kraft, M., 2017. Blockchain technology in the chemical in- Che Wang is a Master graduate student in Shanghai University of Electric Power. He got
dustry: machine-to-machine electricity market. Appl. Energy 195, 234–246. the Bachelor degree from Hebei University of Science and Technology in 2016. His re-
search direction: energy technology, Energy Internet.
Sisi, D., 2015. The enlightenment of foreign distributed energy development to China.
Eng. Sci. 3, 84–87.
Soares, N., Martins, A.G., Carvalho, A.L., Caldeira, C., Du, C., Castanheira, E., et al., 2018. Sai Luo is a Master graduate student in Shanghai University of Electric Power. She re-
The challenging paradigm of interrelated energy systems towards a more sustainable ceived the Bachelor degree from Henan University of Technology in 2017. Her research
future. Renew. Sustain Energy Rev. 95, 171–193. direction are: power engineering economics and management.

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