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CPID 868292

MKTG−UB.40.001,007: Entertainment & Media Industries


Charles Schreger
New York University
Spring 2022

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MKTG−UB.40.001,007: (Brightspace) Entertainment
& Media Industries, Schreger, Spring 2022
New York University

THIS PRINT COURSEPACK AND ITS ELECTRONIC COUNTERPART (IF ANY) ARE INTENDED SOLELY FOR THE PERSONAL USE
OF PURCHASER. ALL OTHER USE IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

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Items are available in both online and in print, unless marked with icons.

− Print only − Online only

MKTG−UB.40.001,007: (Brightspace) Entertainment & Media


Industries, Schreger, Spring 2022
Table of Contents
“The Walt Disney Studios” by Elberse, Anita 1

“The Black List” by McGee, Henry; McAra, Sarah 31

“Epic Games: Nineteen Eighty−Fortnite” by Wu, Andy; Zhang, Miaomiao; 59


Zhang, Christopher

“Spotify: Face the Music (2021 Update)” by Vroom, Govert; Boquet, Isaac 93
Sastre

“World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc.” by Elberse, Anita; Rodman, Melissa 125

“The Video−Streaming Wars in 2019: Can Disney Catch Netflix?” by 151


Elberse, Anita; Cody, Monica

Bibliography 169

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30
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9-317-027
REV: MAY 1, 2017

HENRY MCGEE

SARAH MCARA

The Black List


On a hot summer morning in 2016, Franklin Leonard, founder and CEO of The Black List, climbed
the wide staircase of West Hollywood’s Soho House, an exclusive club for members of the creative
industries. Entering the lounge where stars, directors, and studio executives were discussing deals and
careers, Leonard was greeted with friendly waves and handshakes. He proceeded to his favorite booth,
and as he settled into the vintage velvet seats, a waiter asked if he wanted his regular—pineapple juice
and a coffee. Leonard tied back his dreadlocks, pulled out his laptop, and began another day’s work.

A fresh approach to identifying potential hit movie scripts via crowdsourcing, The Black List was
started by Leonard in 2005. At the time, Leonard was a development executive at a Hollywood
production company where he helped select scripts and assemble talent for new films. But he felt that
he was not receiving many film-worthy scripts—admittedly a subjective judgment—and turned to his
peers for input. He sent a brief survey to 75 executives at other production companies asking them to
list their 10 favorite screenplays of the year that had not yet been made into movies. He tallied the
results and sent the list to the respondents as a simple PDF. Producers responded enthusiastically, and
eagerly contacted the screenwriters’ agents to acquire the listed scripts. The Black List began to gain
momentum when two scripts from the original list, Juno (2007) and Lars and the Real Girl (2007), were
nominated for best screenplay at the 2008 Oscars.

Leonard continued to compile the list in the following years, eventually expanding participation in
the annual survey to over 500 movie executives. The Black List became widely distributed—and highly
anticipated—throughout the industry as it proved to hold the scripts for some of Hollywood’s most
successful films. By early 2016, 1,067 screenplays had been featured on the annual list, 322 of which
had been made into feature films, including Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The Social Network (2010), Argo
(2012), and The Imitation Game (2014). Films from The Black List had racked up 241 Oscar nominations
and 48 wins, as well as 205 Golden Globe nominations and 43 wins. “[T]he Black List has become a
Hollywood institution,” the Los Angeles Times declared. “[M]any creatively daring and commercially
risky movies have been green-lighted thanks in large part to their appearance on the list.”1

In 2012, The Black List became Leonard’s full-time job as he set out to monetize his pioneering work.
He launched The Black List as an online venture where, for a small monthly fee, aspiring and
established writers could upload their unproduced scripts (tagged with keywords) and receive experts’
reviews and ratings. Others in the industry, including agents, managers, financiers, and producers,

Senior Lecturer Henry McGee and Case Researcher Sarah McAra (Case Research & Writing Group) prepared this case. It was reviewed and
approved before publication by a company designate. Funding for the development of this case was provided by Harvard Business School and
not by the company. HBS cases are developed solely as the basis for class discussion. Cases are not intended to serve as endorsements, sources of
primary data, or illustrations of effective or ineffective management.

Copyright © 2016, 2017 President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-
7685, write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to www.hbsp.harvard.edu. This publication may not be digitized,
photocopied, or otherwise reproduced, posted, or transmitted, without the permission of Harvard Business School.

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317-027 The Black List

could explore the database to find prospective projects. By 2016, the database had hosted more than
35,000 screenplays.

Leonard was eager to find other ways to expand his business. In the summer of 2016, he was
considering raising a fund to finance films with budgets of less than $20 million, a segment that had
largely been abandoned by the major Hollywood studios as they pursued big-budget, special effects-
driven films with global appeal. Leonard believed that The Black List’s ability to uncover good scripts
would give him a competitive advantage, but as a 14-year Hollywood veteran, he knew how difficult
it would be to break into any aspect of the movie business. He observed, “You can finance a movie for
a couple hundred thousand dollars, but getting it to a million people is a much harder task.” As
Leonard contemplated the barriers to entry he would face, he wondered if The Black List could find an
innovative path to success in the fiercely competitive motion picture business.

The Motion Picture Industry


With 2015 revenues of $44.5 billion, the U.S. motion picture industry had a significant economic and
cultural impact around the world. (International markets accounted for 53% of total industry revenue.)2
While 14,500 establishments participated in the U.S. industry, the 50 largest companies accounted for
80% of total revenue.3 In particular, six large Los Angeles-based production and distribution
companies, called the “majors,” dominated the landscape: Universal, Warner Bros., Twentieth Century
Fox, Sony Pictures Entertainment, The Walt Disney Studios, and Paramount Pictures. (See Exhibits 1
and 2.) All of the major studios were subsidiaries of bigger media businesses and traced their roots to
the early 1900s; they benefited from consistent access to capital, long-standing industry relationships,
and diverse portfolios that helped shield them from the risks inherent to the business.4 Films
distributed by the majors accounted for around 90% of annual domestic box office revenue.5

Small production companies made up the rest of the industry. They financed and produced films
independently—that is, outside of the major studios—and were called “independents” or “indies.” The
largest among them were the “mini-majors,” such as Lionsgate (founded in 1997) and The Weinstein
Companya (founded in 2005). Few indies had resources to distribute films widely.

Film Development
The process of making and releasing a film had four key components: (1) development; (2)
financing; (3) production; and (4) distribution. (See Exhibits 3 and 4 for an overview.) Development
was the first phase in a film’s lifecycle and could take anywhere from several months to a number of
years.6 It was not uncommon for studios to develop 10 times as many projects as they ultimately
produced,7 and in over 100 years, no one had mastered the art of selecting a sure bet. As one reporter
noted, “Unlike other decades-old industries, Hollywood not only has a hard time forecasting, but it
also has difficulty analyzing past results. Why was ‘The Hunger Games’ such a big hit? Because it had
a built-in audience? Because it starred Jennifer Lawrence? Because it was released around spring break?
The business is filled with analysts who claim to have predictive powers, but the fact that a vast
majority of films fail to break even proves that nobody knows anything for sure.”8

Development began with a screenplay—generally a 90- to 120-page document with one page
roughly equating one minute of film—that was used to attract the director and stars to make the film
and the money to finance it. In some cases, the idea for a film came from someone in the industry—a

a The founders of The Weinstein Company, brothers Bob and Harvey Weinstein, had previously founded the leading
independent studio Miramax Films in 1979, which they sold to The Walt Disney Company in 1993.

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The Black List 317-027

producer, director, or studio executive, etc.—who then paid a screenwriter to write the script, either
using funds from a studio, from an independent financier, or from their own pocket. In other cases, a
production company acquired a screenwriter’s original screenplay. Such unsolicited scripts, called
“spec scripts,” were written on speculation of a sale to a producer or studio.

Since screenwriters had “little clout in the industry,”9 wrote one industry observer, they relied on
agents or managers to represent their work. Agents played an important function in protecting
intellectual property, and producers seldom, if ever, read scripts that came from anyone else. Leonard
explained their role: “There are tens of thousands of scripts submitted to the Writers Guild of Americab
every year. No one person can consume them all, so agents act as a first filter.” Agents then shopped
the scripts around to different producers and tried to build buzz around the scripts. Some industry
observers criticized this process, for instance, noting that it could be challenging for an unknown
screenwriter to earn representation from top agencies such as Creative Artists Agency (CAA), William
Morris Endeavor, United Talent Agency, and International Creative Management. Additionally, agents
distributed scripts to a limited number of people based on their judgments and preferences.10

Scripts met another set of gatekeepers at the production company, where freelance readers or junior
executives made the first pass through to review and assess them. They then forwarded their favorites
to the producer, who was responsible for identifying feature film-worthy material. When interested in
a spec script, the producer negotiated a deal with the screenwriter’s agent.

Next, the producer assembled all of the pieces needed to turn a script into a movie, “like the
conductor of the orchestra,” explained Leonard. The first step was refining the script. “The producer
will analyze the script and give the writer numerous development notes for how to improve it,” said
Leonard, “though some may argue they’re not always improvements.” The producer sometimes
replaced the original screenwriter with a new one to bring a different approach to the material. Next,
with a revised screenplay in hand, the producer worked with talent agencies to seek a director and key
acting talent to attach to the script to form what was called a “package.”

Simultaneously, the producer created a detailed production budget for the film, known as the
picture’s “negative cost.” (The term referred to all the costs involved in producing the picture and
manufacturing a film negative from which copies were made and distributed.) A film’s negative cost
was divided into above-the-line and below-the-line costs. Above-the-line items included the creative
elements, such as story rights acquisition, and participants, such as the actors, directors, producers, and
writers. These were highly variable and could account for over half of a film’s production budget.11
Below-the-line costs included technical elements and participants, such as the soundstage, wardrobe,
set construction, and camera crew. An action movie with significant special effects might have high
below-the-line costs. Leonard summarized, “In development, the producer is trying to construct a
mosaic to present to a studio or a financier with a compelling economic argument: that the film will
make more money than it will take to produce and market it.”

Film Financing
Producers then used the package to secure financing. Production costs were on the rise, with one
estimate suggesting that the average negative cost for a major film release had nearly doubled between
2000 and 2014.12 Although independent films were often made for a few million dollars or less, costs
of a studio production typically ranged from $25 million to over $200 million.13 (See Exhibit 5.)

b The Writers Guild of America (WGA) was a labor union for writers of media content, such as TV shows, movies, and news
programs. The WGA helped negotiate writers’ contracts and protected their intellectual property, among other activities.

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317-027 The Black List

There were many different avenues for arranging production funding and each came with its own
advantages and drawbacks. (See Exhibit 6 for a partial list of options.) Securing financing was perhaps
easiest for producers tied to major studios. A producer might have a “first-look deal” with a studio: the
producer gave that studio the first option to buy all rights to the film outright and in exchange received
an annual fee and financial support from the studio to cover overhead. Only after a studio turned down
a script could the producer then shop it around to other studios or financiers. (In “overall deals,”
producers could not take the script elsewhere if the studio refused.) The studio became responsible for
funding the development, production, and distribution of the film. The producer, in turn, became an
employee of the studio for the duration of the project, produced the film under the studio’s creative
direction,14 and received an upfront fee as well as a share of the film’s profits.

Studios also acquired projects from unaffiliated producers, and the most desirable packages often
resulted in bidding wars. Landing a sought-after project usually hinged on the proposed size of the
studio’s funding for production and distribution, as well as the fees and profit participation it was
willing to pay the producer, director, and cast.

Some independent producers could partially fund development and production, but needed
additional funds to complete and distribute their films. One common option for this scenario was a
“negative pick-up” deal, where a producer presented a distributor with a fully developed project and
the distributor agreed to buy the rights to the film upon completion.15 The producer used the
distributor’s financial commitment as collateral to secure a bank loan to fund production. For a major,
negative pick-ups were less risky than funding a film from the beginning, since the company did not
have to bear the financial and creative uncertainties of development and production. Because the studio
bore limited risks, producers were able to earn larger fees in negative pick-up arrangements.

Other independent producers needed financing for the entire project. They shopped the package to
different financiers, and as Leonard put it, “by hook or by crook, they will cobble together financing
with whatever money they can find.” This could range from bank loans to brand placement deals to
foreign presales, where the producer sold distribution rights in foreign territories and then used the
contracts as collateral for a bank loan. Filming in a location with tax incentives was another common
financing option for both indies and majors. Many local and national governments enticed producers
to film in their jurisdictions, hoping to gain a boost for the local economy from the spending related to
set construction, lodging, catering, and other services.16 Tax incentives, which ranged from sales tax
refunds to direct subsidies, could cover 15% to 25% of production costs.17

In recent years, equity from high-net-worth individuals had also grown as a popular source of
financing. For example, Teddy Schwarzman, son of the CEO of private equity firm The Blackstone
Group, founded a boutique production company that financed The Imitation Game (2014) after the script
was rejected by Warner Bros.18 Megan Ellison, daughter of the founder of software giant Oracle, also
became a prolific financier, with hits including Her (2013) and American Hustle (2013).19

But whatever the source of financing, film production was a risky investment. By some estimates,
between 50% and 80% of all films did not make a profit.20,21 Leonard commented, “If you’re looking
for a 10x or 20x return on your money, film is not the investment for you.” But, he continued, there
were other valuable aspects of financing films: “Some investors appreciate the cultural impact of the
work they do—the social benefit and prestige that accrues to them from being in this industry.”

Green-lighting When financed by a studio, a film had to be “green-lit” by a team of executives


to move the project from development to production. The green-lighting committee usually involved
members from production, marketing, home entertainment, international distribution, consumer
products, legal, and finance. They judged a movie for its creative and commercial merits, typically

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The Black List 317-027

considering the budget, genre, attached talent, release date, prospect of a franchise, merchandising,
and potential in international markets. The team often deliberated how a film appealed to the audience
along four quadrants: men under 25 years old; men over 25; women under 25; women over 25. Most
films were expected to appeal to at least two quadrants, while blockbusters should appeal to all four.22

Because of the large overhead and complexities of maintaining massive global distribution and
production operations, the majors increasingly only green-lit films that had big-name stars or elaborate
special effects that would boost the chance of generating substantial global revenues. But some
industry insiders criticized the changing green-lighting process.23 As one commented, “Getting movies
green lit has become harder and harder. . . . [E]very department has to weigh in. Sometimes it feels like
we should send scripts to the marketing department first and then go to creative.”24

Production
Once a producer received financing or a project was green-lit by a studio, production began. The
first phase was preproduction, which typically ran two to six months and included scouting locations,
securing the remaining creative talent, and hiring the rest of the personnel. The producer finalized the
budget and shooting schedule during this phase.25 Next came the filming of the movie, called principal
photography. During principal photography, the cinematography, lighting, sound, and acting talent
all came together to create the film. The director typically controlled the artistic decisions of principal
photography, but in some cases had to defer to guidance from producers, investors, or studio
representatives, depending on their relative power.26 Principal photography generally took 12 weeks
or more;27 many uncertainties could arise—from bad weather to a sick actor—that could delay film
completion and increase costs.28 Finally, the film entered post-production, which averaged four to eight
months.29 This phase included editing and adding music, sound effects, and special visual effects to
create a complete film. The director continued to make artistic decisions, but the final cut often included
input from either the distributor or the financier.30

Distribution and Marketing


Once the film was completed, it was distributed to viewers. While the six major studios were an
important source of film financing and production, their greatest competitive advantage was in
distribution: they had the capability to release films across multiple platforms around the globe. Most
independent producers lacked such resources and therefore relied on the majors (or mini-majors) for
distribution. Traditionally, distributors first negotiated with exhibitors to bring films to theaters.

In 2015, there were 5,375 theaters with nearly 40,000 screens in the U.S. and Canada.31 A few major
theater chains had come to dominate the industry and used their economies of scale to leverage the
best deals with distributors.32 The four largest chains—which, in 2015, were Regal Entertainment
Group, AMC Entertainment, Cinemark, and Cineplex—accounted for 61% of domestic box office
revenue, up from 35% in 2000.33 Films were typically loss leaders for theaters, which in turn relied on
high markups on concessions to remain profitable. In the 2010s, many theaters were trying to draw
larger crowds, for instance, by upgrading seats or introducing a wider range of food and beverages.34

New movies were usually released on Fridays in order to maximize the size of the available
audience. Although the box office was only one source of a film’s revenue, performance during opening
weekend (Friday through Sunday) was usually a key indicator of a film’s ultimate financial success.35
Many relied on opening weekend numbers to predict overall revenue, how well the film would do
abroad, and its prospects for home entertainment. As a general rule, a film was expected to gross about
2.5 times its opening weekend gross.36

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Marketing Distributors were also responsible for marketing. With a goal of driving opening
weekend performance, most distributors front-loaded their marketing, investing in advertising before
sales were ever generated.37 They often started preliminary advertising months or years in advance
with posters or teaser trailers, then increased efforts six to eight weeks before the debut with full trailers
online and on TV, as well as social media campaigns. Finally, they escalated spending in the two weeks
leading up to opening weekend, a period that could account for two-thirds of the marketing budget.38
Marketing spend then quickly receded after the debut, since the majority of box office revenues were
generated within the first two weeks of release.

Marketing motion pictures was expensive and inefficient, according to some industry insiders.39
For major films, marketing budgets commonly equaled 50% of negative costs;40 for low-budget films,
marketing could exceed 75% of negative costs.41 In 2014, the average marketing budget for a medium-
size film was over $40 million, up from $12.4 million (in 2014 dollars) in 1980.42 The rising costs were
partially due to the high costs of TV advertising in the 2010s: in 2014, a 30-second spot during a popular
TV show could run between $60,000 and $400,000.43 Experts estimated that TV advertising accounted
for 70% of marketing costs in 2016.44 Social media increasingly played a role in marketing, but was still
only a small portion of the budget—no more than $10 million, according to one estimate.45

Release windows After completing its theatrical run, a film generated the bulk of its revenues
through a series of “release windows.” During each window, the distributor made the film available
on different platforms based on their net contribution to a film’s profitability. (See the typical release
windows in Exhibit 7.) At-home viewing—TV, DVDs, video-on-demand (VOD), streaming, and
downloads—was one of the largest and most profitable revenue streams. In the early 2000s, DVDs were
an especially lucrative revenue stream. DVD sales peaked in 2004—and for some films even eclipsed
box office results—but then started to fall as online video streaming increased.46 Digital downloads
were particularly profitable because the distributor did not have to incur the cost of manufacturing and
shipping physical discs. On average, the distributor received 50% of the retail price of a DVD and 70%
of a digital download. Another window was distribution to pay-TV networks where the license fee was
typically tied to the film’s performance in theaters. Pay-TV was then followed by sales to ad-supported
cable and broadcast outlets.

Other ancillary markets Product merchandising, including toys, apparel, games, and more,
was yet another potential revenue stream for films and had contributed to the rise of film sequels and
series, such as the Spider Man and Star Wars films. Product merchandising was especially prevalent
among the action genre and children’s films. For example, Disney earned $10 billion in retail sales over
five years from its Cars film series (2006 and 2011).47

Profits
Because of the cultural and economic impact of the movie industry, weekend box office reports, like
major league sport scores, were widely disseminated in consumer media, typically showing films
selling millions of dollars of tickets. But these numbers did not truly represent a film’s financial success
because box office revenue was shared between the distributor and exhibitor.48 (See Exhibit 8 for a
revenue breakdown, Exhibit 9a for the profit participation chain, and Exhibit 9b for a sample film
profit/loss.) On average, movie theaters retained between 30% and 50% of the ticket sales (called “gross
receipts”)49 and remitted the balance to distributors as “film rentals.” In addition, some powerful actors
could command a share of these gross receipts (also known as “gross points”). In North America, film
rentals on average counted for less than a third of a film’s ultimate revenues.50

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From all revenue streams, the distributor deducted gross points and limited other deductions, such
as residuals and “off-the-top” costs.c Then, after deducting any other permitted costs, the distributor
earned a fee (based on the platform, typically around 30%)51 and recouped all of its out-of-pocket
expenses, such as marketing, insurance, local tax, and logistics.52

The remainder then went to the film’s financier (which could also be the distributor) to recoup the
costs of production (including interest), as well as any payments that had been deferred by talent until
the film had reached an agreed-upon level of financial success. The balance was considered the
financier’s net profit, which was then typically split 50/50 with the producer, who might in turn pay a
share of profits to creative talent as a form of additional compensation.53 But deciphering a film’s net
profits could often be a challenging process: the industry was notorious for “Hollywood accounting,”
the creative practice of burying profits to avoid sharing the net participation.54

An Industry under Pressure


In the 2010s, the industry was plagued by rising costs and declining theater attendance.55 Domestic
box office revenue reached an all-time high of $11.1 billion in 2015, but this was due to rising ticket
prices.56 Gone were the days of the early twentieth century when a typical U.S. moviegoer attended
over 20 films a year; in the 2010s, each moviegoer only saw four or five films in theaters per year.57 (See
Exhibit 10.) Annual ticket sales among young people ages 18 to 24, traditionally frequent moviegoers,
were down from 8.7 tickets per person per year in 2013 to 5.7 in 2015.58

There were many theories about what was causing the decline. A report in the New York Times cited
“the comparative ease of other forms of entertainment (HBO Go, Netflix); the increasing cost of movie
going (now $17.25 per adult at the ArcLight chain’s Hollywood location, before 3-D upcharges); and
the movie business itself, which has aggressively pushed one kind of event movie (lumbering, visual-
effects-driven sequels) at the expense of variety.”59

The decline of theatrical revenue and the proliferation of at-home viewing platforms provided a
powerful incentive for studios to contract the traditional release windows. This sped up generation of
revenue from increasingly profitable post-theatrical markets to recover the growing costs of production
and marketing. The window between the theatrical run and the DVD launch fell from around six
months in the mid-2000s to three or four months in the mid-2010s.60 This trend continued through the
other windows. In 2015, some of the year’s most popular films were concurrently released on DVD and
for digital download, while others were first released for digital download before appearing on DVD.61

More boldly, some independent distributors experimented with simultaneously releasing films in
theaters and via electronic home distribution, a strategy referred to as “day-and-date” releasing. For
example, this allowed the distributors of the film Margin Call to achieve early success after its debut at
the Sundance Film Festival, a key launching pad for independent films. In 2011, distributor Roadside
Attractions booked Margin Call into theaters and on cable system VOD channels at the same time. The
$3.5 million production generated $5.3 million at the box office and nearly an equal amount on VOD.62
However, this strategy was not widely adopted due to fierce resistance from the large theater chains

c Residuals were participation payments to talent for the use of a film after the theatrical run, based either on the number of
times a film was played or as a percentage of TV exhibition revenue. Off-the-top expenses were the contractually defined
distribution costs the distributor first deducted from its gross receipts, often including licenses, taxes, residuals, and trade
association dues. (Source: John W. Cones, The Feature Film Distribution Deal: A Critical Analysis of the Single Most Important Industry
Agreement (Carbondale: Southern Illinois University Press, 1997), pp. 114–115.)

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and lack of support from the majors. “Movies are just too expensive for us to collapse the windows and
effectively eliminate a separate source of revenue,” said the head of Walt Disney Studios Alan Horn.63

These concerns were echoed in 2016 when technology investor Sean Parker ignited an industry
controversy with the announcement of his latest venture, the Screening Room. The start-up planned to
provide a $150 set-top box (equipped with anti-piracy protection) that would allow consumers 48-hour
access to newly released movies for a charge of $50 per view, with a revenue-sharing model for the
exhibitors and distributors.64 Parker claimed support from some prominent industry players, including
the theater chain AMC Entertainment as well as esteemed directors Peter Jackson, J. J. Abrams, and
Ron Howard.65 But many others strongly resisted day-and-date releases and its potential cannibali-
zation of the theatrical revenue stream.66

Low ticket sales in the U.S. not only led the industry to re-examine its windowing strategy, but it
also brought renewed attention to the growing global audience.67 In 2015, foreign audiences accounted
for nearly 70% of the $38.3 billion annual global box office revenue.68,69 (See Exhibit 11 for data from
previous years.) Increasingly, producers crafted films with spectacular visual effects and easily
understood plots that played well around the globe. As one reporter put it, films became “the artistic
equivalent of Rosetta Stones, interpretable for many tongues,”70 noting that on the international stage,
“explosions translate easier than wit.”71 One such example was the 2013 sci-fi action film Pacific Rim;
the $190 million production earned $102 million in the domestic box office and $309 million abroad.72

Studio Strategies
These changing dynamics altered many studios’ strategies. Traditionally, studios had produced a
wide portfolio of small- to large-budget films across a range of genres. But in the 2010s, studios focused
on “tentpole films” (or blockbusters), high-profile projects expected to generate enough revenue to
support the production, and potential failure, of smaller films. They had wide commercial appeal,
simple storylines, impressive visuals, and well-known casts.73 They were shown at more theaters, and
wider distribution generally led to higher sales.74 (Estimates found that films with production budgets
of $10 million to $40 million were shown in 1,600 theaters, while films with budgets over $100 million
were shown in 3,500 theaters or more.)75 Tentpole films were important for majors and mini-majors
alike. Lionsgate, for instance, released around 15 movies a year, but from 2012 to 2015 earned 30% to
50% of its total box office revenues from two tentpole film franchises, The Hunger Games and Twilight.76

Leonard explained: “Although there are some exceptions, studios are increasingly hoping for a
minimum of $300 million in worldwide revenue on every movie they make because they have massive
overhead and can only release so many movies a year.” Many studios had had to rein in or eliminate
budgets for smaller productions and were making fewer films.77 The six major studios released 147
films in 2015, compared to 204 in 2006.78

Tentpole films typically required higher production costs. While improvements in technology
reduced costs of some aspects of production, the rise of special effects required expensive equipment
and high-salaried, skilled editors. Most of 2015’s top-grossing films had budgets between $100 and
$200 million.79 (See Exhibit 12a for 2015’s highest-grossing films.) Star Wars: The Force Awakens topped
the list with a production budget of $300 million, but it was also one of the highest-grossing films in
history.80 Yet there were no guarantees in the industry, and a high production budget did not ensure
success. Disney’s 2012 film John Carter, for example, was a widely publicized failure. The sci-fi film had
an estimated production budget of $250 million and grossed only $282 million worldwide.81 It resulted
in a $200 million write-down for Disney and the departure of the head of distribution.82

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In the 2010s, studios were betting on sequels, franchises, and the action/adventure genre for their
tentpole films (many of which were also offered in 3D, which garnered higher ticket prices but also
higher production costs). Sequels came with an established audience and often performed well at the
box office.83 Their portion of total releases had doubled from the 1990s to the 2010s.84 The
action/adventure genre, meanwhile, accounted for 39% of U.S. revenue market share in 2015,85
compared to 24% five years earlier. In contrast, drama fell from 27% in 2010 to 17% 2015.86

The Independents
The majors’ focus on big-budget films, technological advances that lowered the physical cost of
production, and the growing importance of relatively inexpensive social media marketing gave
renewed energy to the independent film business. Fueled by new revenue sources like home video and
pay-TV, production and distribution of films outside the studio system had flourished in the last part
of the twentieth century but then waned with the decline of DVD revenues and the shift of pay-TV
programming budgets to original productions. The 2010s brought new players to feature film
production, such as Amazon and Netflix, as well as new distributors, such as Open Road Films,
founded in 2011 as a joint venture between AMC and Regal theater chains.87

The industry was also seeing a rise in the number of “micro-budget” films with production costs
well under $1 million. And while these low-budget projects could receive high praise in the indie
circuit, many struggled to find distribution deals. “Take the $100,000-budget film Tangerine,” explained
Leonard, referring to a critically acclaimed film that was first exhibited at Sundance in 2015. “Most
distributors would say that they don’t know how to sell a movie filmed on an iPhone about a
transgender woman of color walking around Santa Monica Boulevard.” Distribution deals for such
films were small—little more than the negative cost, Leonard estimated—and only brought limited
theatrical releases. “But that’s been a great prospect for most indies,” he said. (See Exhibit 12b for the
highest-grossing independent films of 2015, and Exhibit 12c for profitable low-budget films by genre.)

Independent distributors, typically unable to fund wide theatrical releases, generated a greater
portion of their revenue from secondary distribution channels than the majors.88 Some independent
distributors and producers hoped to capture a larger share of the profits by surpassing the traditional
distribution system and premiering their films online.89 Indeed, skipping the cost and uncertain returns
of a theatrical run was increasingly an option for independent films, especially with social media to
help with marketing. However, there were some occasions when producers of micro-budget films
achieved outsized financial returns when their films were distributed by a major. For example,
Paranormal Activity, a $15,000 independent production, was acquired for release by Paramount
Pictures.90 With the help of the major’s distribution machine, the film grossed $193 million and became
one of the most profitable films of all time based on return on investment.91,92

The Black List


Like many other industry executives, Leonard began his Hollywood career working as an executive
assistant. After graduating from Harvard College in 2000, he worked brief stints as a congressional
campaign staffer, a reporter for a Caribbean newspaper, and a business analyst at McKinsey &
Company. A tip from a friend about an entry-level job at the powerful CAA resulted in Franklin’s move
to Los Angeles. From CAA, Leonard climbed his way through the Hollywood ranks and held a number
of development positions, including roles at Appian Way (actor Leonardo DiCaprio’s production
company), Mirage Enterprises (an independent production company formed by directors Sydney
Pollack and Anthony Minghella), and Universal Pictures.

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Leonard, who described himself as a “numbers geek,” brought with him to Hollywood a love of
good writing, but was surprised by the inefficiency and difficulty of finding good scripts. In 2005, the
situation led him to distribute the original survey to his industry contacts that resulted in The Black
List. (See Exhibit 13.) To make the list, a screenplay had to receive a recommendation from about 5%
of the survey respondents, which 75 to 90 did each year.93 The Black List quickly became a way for
producers and executives to identify the most-liked scripts that had not yet been produced.

Leonard demonstrated the role of The Black List with the film Spotlight, which appeared on the list
in 2013: “When a studio executive sees a story about a news team who’s investigating child predators
in the Catholic Church, he is never going to look at that and say, ‘This is box office gold, I’m going to
make millions!’” On the list with eight recommendations (the top script that year had 46), the script
was purchased by independent production company Anonymous Content. The $20-million-budget
film was released in North America by Open Road Films in 2015; it grossed $88 million worldwide and
won the Oscars for Best Motion Picture of the Year and Best Writing for an Original Screenplay.94,95

Films on The Black List had accrued a stunning track record of success. As of the summer of 2016,
Black List films had won 4 of the 8 previous best picture awards and 9 of the 18 previous best screenplay
awards. (See Exhibit 14.) Leonard commented, “Everyone in Hollywood knows the value of a great
script, but there’s this widely held notion that it’s impossible to evaluate a script with any degree
certainty.” While determining what made a screenplay great was still subjective, The Black List was
one way to showcase well-regarded scripts. Inclusion on the list created great interest in projects from
stars, directors, and their agents. For example, Leonard reported that actor Benedict Cumberbatch said
he read The Imitation Game from his agent because it was the number-one pick on The Black List.96
Meryl Streep and Ben Affleck reportedly found films Hope Springs and Argo, respectively, from The
Black List.97 As one talent agent explained, “If a script is on the Black List, it’s gone through a filter of
some sort. . . . [I]t can give people a bit more confidence to move forward.”98 And while not all of its
scripts were picked up for development, The Black List brought attention to the included screenwriters,
which for some, led to other writing jobs in the industry.

The Black List had a strong brand in the industry, one which Leonard had very consciously
developed. “The public persona of a company is important in Hollywood,” Leonard said. “And I’m
aware of the extent that my packaging—an African American with dreadlocks who loves data and
Excel—is part of our brand.” Even the name “The Black List” was a deliberate branding choice. Not
only did it subvert the often negative associations attributed to the color black, it was also a response
to the stigma of Hollywood’s original “black list,” a roster of movie industry players banned from the
industry due to their alleged “Communist sympathies” during the 1950s. Leonard leveraged this brand
to release the 2015 annual list in a new way, enlisting Hollywood stars such as Maggie Gyllenhaal and
Leslie Odom to announce the list though YouTube videos.

www.blcklst.com
In 2012, Leonard launched The Black List website with Dino Simone, a software engineer he met
through a mutual friend. Leonard described to Simone the difficulties involved in Hollywood’s
standard system of finding screenplays. “Coming from a very different world, where essentially
everything I did was about automating, making things faster or more efficient—when he told me about
these problems, that was interesting,” Simone explained to a reporter. “Because they can definitely be
solved. It’s just a matter of time, and going about it in the right way.”99

Created as a “real time Black List,” the new business was designed to further connect screenwriters
with movie executives. Screenwriters paid The Black List $25 per month to host their scripts on the

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www.blcklist.com site, and could pay an additional $50 to have their material evaluated by a selective
group of industry veterans, ranging from agency assistants to major studio production executives who
all had extensive experience evaluating scripts. The reviewers earned $25 per script-reading with a
bonus based on speed and quality. They rated scripts on a 10-point scale and wrote reviews covering
criteria such as plot and dialogue.d The highest-rated scripts were featured on the website and in a
weekly newsletter, and also received free hosting and evaluations for a few months. This allowed the
best scripts to gain more reviews and attention regardless of the screenwriter’s ability to pay.100 A
dozen scripts from the site had even made it on to the annual Black List.101

The monthly payments allowed Leonard and his small team to undertake other activities. Leonard
noted, “Our mission is to celebrate great screenplays and their writers in whatever form that takes.”
They staged live readings of top scripts in theaters in Los Angeles and New York, and ran a podcast
with actors and actresses reading scripts from the database. The Black List also worked with major
studios and entertainment companies (e.g., the National Football League, Sundance) to identify
screenwriters for paid opportunities.102 Now, in 2016, Leonard was considering launching a film fund
to help finance independent films. As he put it, “What better way to celebrate a screenplay than to get
it made? The film fund is a natural extension of the work that we are already doing.”

The Film Fund


Expanding into feature film financing would represent Leonard’s biggest—and riskiest—venture
to date. He contemplated initially raising $50 million that would be rolled over to finance 15 films over
five years, each with a budget targeted between $8 million and $12 million (and an upper limit of $18
million). He was fairly confident he would find enough funders given his connections in the industry,
the rise (and deep pockets of) independent financiers who would invest with him, and The Black List’s
reputation for identifying strong material.

Good Screenplays—The Competitive Edge


In deciding which films The Black List would finance, Leonard planned to put the quality of the
screenplay front and center. While the major studios increasingly embraced sequels, remakes, and spin-
offs in an attempt to dampen financial risk, Leonard felt that good screenwriting was the key to success.
“We have an 11-year track record of identifying the best material. There is pretty compelling data on
the fact that the better your script is, the more likely it is to be successful,” Leonard said. He had
examined a wide selection of films with production budgets under $60 million to see which ones made
less than their budget, which ones made 100% to 200% of their budget, and which ones made 400% of
their budget. Using this proprietary database, Leonard found that the films that were nominated for or
won a major writing award did better financially than the ones that were nominated for or won
directing or acting awards. He added, “The audience is becoming savvier about distinguishing
between good movies and bad movies, and good movies tend to have a higher ceiling profit line.”

Leonard felt that the industry struggled with identifying great projects because the system
undervalued great writing. A green-light committee might have a few creative executives read a script
for quality, but most of the team was concerned with other elements such as marketing, home
entertainment sales, and international appeal. Leonard commented, “Some people believe you can feed
a screenplay into a computer and it will tell you how much money the movie will make. Others believe
only the people with the so-called golden gut can know if a script will be a winner.” A 2014 survey of

d To keep up with demand, in the summer of 2016, the price per evaluation increased to $75 and the payment per review
increased to $40, plus a bonus.

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media and entertainment executives found that 31% of respondents relied on intuition to make such
decisions, while 37% relied on data and analytics, with one analyst suggesting that those at the majors
likely skewed toward intuition.103 Skeptics who warned against relying on data often cited the mini-
major Relativity Media, founded in 2004, which claimed it could analyze data such as genre, director,
and release date to identify successful films and minimize risk. Its films achieved mixed results, and
the studio eventually filed for bankruptcy in 2015 amid allegations of financial mismanagement.104

Leonard, however, planned to rely on the intuition of multiple people who were experienced in
evaluating the creative aspects of a screenplay. He explained: “The Black List would likely have more
than 40 people review a script with the focus on the writing. Our theory is that no one person is better
at identifying great material than a crowd of people. It’s a data-driven approach built on top of a human
response approach.”

Leonard also believed that in addition to finding great material and providing film financing, the
success of the new venture also depended on his ability innovate across all stages of the Hollywood
business model from development and production to distribution.

Development and production Once a script had been identified for potential financing,
Leonard planned to employ data to help fill out the entire creative package. Data analytics would help
determine which director, producer, and actors would make the best team. “It’s like money ball for
films,” he said, referring to a technique employed in baseball to use data and analytics instead of
subjective judgments to form a successful team. “Money ball doesn’t teach you how to swing the bat,
but it can give you some guidance around likely outcomes of certain combinations of people.”

Leonard believed that The Black List’s brand and reputation would also help secure the best creative
talent. “One of our brand assets is having excellent taste in content, so a director can reasonably assume
that if we are investing our time and money in it, it’s worth paying attention to,” Leonard commented.
He had also built up a widespread network and goodwill in the industry and was known for his
commitment to helping screenwriters succeed. This reputation would allow him to be selective in
choosing talent, seeking out independent producers and directors who would honor the original
screenplay. “I’ve been involved in enough projects to have seen enough great scripts be ruined as the
focus turns to economics. That’s why I think quality matters,” he said.

Another attraction for talent, Leonard believed, would be The Black List’s approach to sharing
profits. Leonard stated that the writers, directors, stars, and producers would value the company’s
financial transparency and his pledge not to use “Hollywood accounting” when divvying up profits.

Distribution In addition, Leonard felt that The Black List could take an influential role in the
distribution and marketing of the films it financed. (The Black List would focus on the domestic market
and, at least initially, would sell international rights to foreign distributors both to raise money and to
more effectively exploit the global market.) Leonard had identified areas in the traditional model where
The Black List might be able to compete. For example, in marketing, he thought that studios were not
using consumer data as well as they could, especially compared to other industries. “Studios still talk
about their audiences in terms of the four quadrants,” he remarked. “But if I were to ask a toothpaste
company to describe their best customers, they could say something like, Latinos who live in suburban
areas with households of four to six people and incomes between $70,000 and $90,000.” He wondered
if The Black List could find a more granular technique for marketing small-budget films.

Leonard wondered if he should put together an infrastructure needed for this kind of distribution
and marketing. Yet he recognized that selling the distribution rights of a completed film to a major or
mini-major would relieve him of marketing costs and allow him to tap into a distributor’s powerful

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relationships with theaters and other platforms. He also knew that there was an incongruity between
a filmmaker’s expectation and direct-to-consumer distribution: “Every indie producer has a dream of
introducing their film in front of a rapturous crowd at Sundance and later walking on stage to accept
an Oscar. No filmmaker I know is making a movie saying, ‘One day I’m going to wake up and people
all across the country will be downloading my movie on their iPad.’”

New Directions
Leonard focused in on his laptop amid the murmur of the Soho House’s breakfast crowd. He was
planning to meet with a potential film fund investor later that day. He had a lot on his mind as he
contemplated the next move: “Each step in a new business direction potentially puts at risk the core
business model and reputation of The Black List. Right now, I think optimizing for impact rather than
profit is a wise course.” Could The Black List succeed in financing films? And what role could the
company play in distribution? Leonard wondered, “How do you win in this game called movies?”

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Exhibit 1 Top-Grossing Distributors, 1995 to 2016

Movies Total Gross Average Gross Market Share


Warner Bros. 664 $29,373,463,810 $44,237,144 15.04%
Walt Disney 522 $29,353,339,056 $56,232,450 15.03%
Sony Pictures 632 $24,329,830,744 $38,496,568 12.46%
20th Century Fox 456 $22,708,728,795 $49,799,844 11.63%
Universal 426 $22,128,468,118 $51,944,761 11.33%
Paramount Pictures 429 $21,929,397,942 $51,117,478 11.23%

Source: “Domestic Movie Theatrical Market Summary 1995 to 2016,” The Numbers, http://
www.the-numbers.com/market/, accessed September 2016.

Exhibit 2 Major Media Conglomerates in the Film Industry, 2015

Major Film Other Film Major U.S. Cable Other U.S. TV


Parent company
Studio Banners Networks Bannersa
Broadcast
USA Network,
Universal Focus Features, networks:
E!, Syfy, MSNBC,
Pictures Illumination NBC,
CNBC
Telemundo
ESPN,
Broadcast
Walt Disney Pixar, Lucasfilm, Disney Channels,
network:
Pictures Marvel Freeform (formerly
ABC
ABC Family)
TNT, TBS, Adult
Pay-TV:
Warner Swim, truTV,
New Line Cinema HBO,
Bros. Turner Classic
Cinemax
Movies, CNN
Fox Searchlight, Fox News, FX,
Broadcast
Twentieth Fox 2000, National
network:
Century Fox Twentieth Century Fox Geographic
FOX
Animation Partners
TriStar Pictures, Broadcast
Screen Gems, network:
Columbia
Sony Pictures Classics, -- getTV
Pictures
Sony Pictures Sony Movie
Animation Channel
Paramount Vantage Nickelodeon,
Paramount
Viacom Paramount Animation Comedy Central, --
Pictures
Insurge Pictures MTV, VH1, BET

Source: Compiled from Comcast, The Walt Disney Company, TimeWarner, 21st Century Fox, and Viacom, 2015 Form 10-Ks;
and Sony 2015 Form 20-F, all via Capital IQ Inc., a division of Standard & Poor’s, accessed September 2016.
a As of August 2016, TimeWarner, The Walt Disney Company, 21st Century Fox, and Comcast were all partial owners of the
premium streaming TV service Hulu.

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Exhibit 3 Overview of a Film’s Lifecycle

Source: Steven Cahall, Kristina Warmus, Leo Kulp, and Kutgun Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector
Analysis,” RBC Capital Markets, April 7, 2016, p. 69, via Thomson One, accessed August 2016.

Exhibit 4 List of Key Roles in a Film’s Lifecycle

Title Responsibilities Examples


Screenwriter Wrote a script from an original idea or an adaptation of an Aaron Sorkin,
existing work John Ridley
Agent/Agency Selected roles and negotiated deals for talent (e.g., actors, Creative Artists Agency,
directors, and screenwriters) William Morris Endeavor
Studio/Distributor
Major Produced, financed, and distributed films worldwide to Warner Bros.
theaters, home entertainment outlets, TV stations, etc.
Mini-major Produced films with more limited resources for financing or Lionsgate
distribution
Independent Produced, financed, and/or distributed films with very limited A24
resources
Producer Assembled key elements of a film project including script, Jerry Bruckheimer,
director, budget, and financing John Davis
Financier Funded the production of a film; included major studios, mini- Disney, Weinstein,
majors, distributors, high-net-worth individuals, etc. Voltage Pictures
Director Responsible for all creative decisions in the making of a film Spike Lee,
(e.g., casting, script revisions, shot selection, editing) Steven Spielberg

Source: Casewriter research.

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Exhibit 5 Average Film-Related Costs (excluding distribution fees), 2013–2015 Theatrical Releases

Source: Adapted from SNL Kagan and RBC Capital Markets in Steven Cahall, Kristina Warmus, Leo Kulp, and Kutgun Maral,
“Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector Analysis,” RBC Capital Markets, April 7, 2016, p. 72, via Thomson
One, accessed August 2016.

Note: Excludes distribution fees, as well as allocation of overhead/resources, etc.

P&A = Prints and advertising, the term for marketing and distribution costs. (“Prints” referred to the actual physical
film distributed to the theaters.)

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Exhibit 6 Sample Film Financing Methods

Classification Type of Financing Description


Studio Studio development deal Distributor participation in earliest stage before all
elements in place. Producer possibly employee of studio.
Studio Studio-based independent Independent production company has headquarters at
production company studio. Studio totally finances the company’s productions.
Studio Studio financing/distribution deal Producer comes to studio with fully developed package.
Studio finances production.
Studio Negative pickup deal Studio agrees to pay for movie once it is finished in
production. Producer uses this guarantee as collateral for
bank loan. Studio retains ancillary rights.
Independent Cofinancing Studio pays for part of cost. Producer finds other
financing for rest. Studio does not retain all rights to the
film. Producer usually owns the negative.
Independent Overseas presales Producer sells overseas and/or video rights to film. Uses
advances to finance film without obtaining domestic
distributor.
Independent Long-term independent finance A producer arranges financing for a whole slate of films
through an independent production company she runs.
Independent Single-film independent investor Producer arranges independent investor financing, such
finance as a limited partnership, for just one film.
Independent Self-financing Producer finances through personal savings, credit cards
and/or family. Primarily limited to small independently
distributed films.

Source: C. Edward Fee, “The Costs of Outside Equity Control: Evidence from Motion Picture Financing Decisions,” Journal of
Business 75, no. 4 (October 2002): 684, via EBSCOhost, accessed August 2016.

Exhibit 7 Typical Film Release Windows, 2015

Release Window Months After Initial Release


Theatrical -
Premium video on demand (VOD) 3–4
Home Entertainment (DVD/Blue-ray), VOD, pay-per-view 3–6
Pay Television, Subscription VOD 7–15
Network Television (free and basic) 27–30
Licensing and merchandising Concurrent
International releasing Concurrent

Source: Lionsgate, Annual Report 2015, p. 6, http://www.lionsgate.com/uploads/assets/2015%20Annual%20Report.pdf,


accessed August 2016.

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Exhibit 8 Estimated Major Studio Film Revenue Breakdown by Source, 2016

Source: Adapted from Steven Cahall, Kristina Warmus, Leo Kulp, and Kutgun Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer:
Primetime Sector Analysis,” RBC Capital Markets, April 7, 2016, p. 76, via Thomson One, accessed August 2016.

Note: Licensing referred to merchandise licensing.

Exhibit 9a Film Profit Participation Chain

Source: Jeff Ulin, The Business of Media Distribution: Monetizing Film, TV and Video Content in an Online World (Burlington, MA:
Focal Press, 2014), ebook, via Safari ProQuest, accessed August 2016.

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Exhibit 9b Sample Film Revenue and Profit/Loss: The Revenant, 2015 (in $ millions)

The Revenant
Domestic Box Office $179.60
Foreign Box Office 264.28
Global Box Office $443.90
Domestic Theatrical/Non-Theatrical Rental 91.00
Foreign Theatrical Rental 102.10
Domestic Home Entertainment 70.00
Foreign Home Entertainment 40.80
Domestic PPV/VOD 24.70
Domestic Pay TV 15.44
Domestic Network TV 21.37
Domestic Syndication -
Foreign Pre-Sales and Overages -
Foreign TV 63.13
Merchandise -
Total Revenue $428.54
Net Production Cost 135.00
Domestic Releasing Costs 65.00
Foreign Releasing Costs 70.00
Domestic Home Entertainment Costs 21.00
Foreign Home Entertainment Costs 16.32
Interest 9.45
Residuals and Off-The-Tops 19.18
Participants 17.50
Overhead 13.50
Total Costs $366.95
Studio Net Profit Before Fee -
Fee -
Studio Net Profit $61.60
Cash on Cash Return (Revenue/Cost) $1.17

Source: Mike Fleming Jr., “No. 19 ‘The Revenant’—2015 Most Valuable Movie Blockbuster Tournament,”
Deadline, March 18, 2016, http://deadline.com/2016/03/the-revenant-profit-box-office-2015-
1201721740/, accessed September 2016.

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Exhibit 10 Domestic Theatrical Movie Industry Profile, 2005–2015

Box Office Admissions Average Ticket Price Number of


Screens
$ millions % change millions % change $ % change
2015 11,127 7.4 1,320 4.1 8.43 3.2 N/A
2014 10,361 (5.2) 1,268 (5.6) 8.17 0.5 39,356
2013 10,924 0.8 1,344 (1.3) 8.13 2.1 39,368
2012 10,837 6.5 1,362 6.1 7.96 0.4 39,056
2011 10,174 (3.7) 1,283 (4.2) 7.93 0.5 38,974
2010 10,566 (0.3) 1,339 (5.2) 7.89 5.2 38,902
2009 10,596 10.0 1,413 5.3 7.50 4.5 38,605
2008 9,631 (0.3) 1,341 (4.5) 7.18 4.4 38,201
2007 9,664 4.9 1,405 (0.1) 6.88 5.0 38,159
2006 9,210 4.2 1,406 1.9 6.55 2.2 37,765
2005 8,841 (5.8) 1,379 (8.7) 6.41 3.2 37,040

Source: Adapted from Tuna N. Amobi, “Industry Surveys—Media,” S&P Capital IQ, March 2016, p. 43,
accessed July 2016.

Note: Percentage changes based on unrounded data.

Exhibit 11 Global Box Office Revenue by Region, 2006–2014

Source: RBC Capital Markets, National Association of Theater Owners, and MPAA in Steven Cahall, Kristina Warmus, Leo
Kulp, and Kutgun Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector Analysis,” RBC Capital Markets, April
7, 2016, p. 80, via Thomson One, accessed August 2016.

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Exhibit 12a Highest Domestic Grossing Films, All Studios, 2015 ($ millions)

Production Domestic Foreign Worldwide


Movie Distributor Genre Budget Box Office Box Office Gross

1 Star Wars Ep. VII: Walt Disney Sci-Fi $306 $937 $1,132 $2,068
The Force Awakens
2 Jurassic World Universal Sci-Fi 150 652 1,018 1,670
3 The Avengers: Walt Disney Action/Adv. 250 459 946 1,405
Age of Ultron
4 Inside Out Walt Disney Animation 175 356 501 857
5 Furious 7 Universal Action 190 353 1,163 1,516
6 Minions Universal Animation 74 336 823 1159
7 The Hunger Games: Lionsgate Action/Adv. 160 282 372 653
Mockingjay - Part 2
8 The Martian 20th Century Fox Sci-Fi 108 228 402 630
9 Cinderella Walt Disney Fantasy 95 201 342 544
10 Spectre Sony/Columbia Action 245 200 681 881

Source: Compiled from Box Office Mojo, http://www.boxofficemojo.com/, accessed August 2016.

Exhibit 12b Highest Domestic Grossing Films, Independents, 2015 ($ millions)

Production Domestic Foreign Worldwide


Movie Distributor Genre Budget Box Office Box Office Gross

1 Spotlight Open Road Films Drama $20 (est.) $45 $43 $88
2 The Gift STX Entertainment Thriller 5 44 15 59
3 A Walk in the Broad Green Comedy 8 (est.) 30 6 36
Woods Pictures
4 The Woman in Relativity Horror 15 (est.) 27 22 49
Black 2: Angel of
Death
5 The Lazarus Effect Relativity Horror 3.3 25 13 38
6 Ex Machina A24 Sci-Fi 15 25 11 36
Thriller
7 Black or White Relativity Drama 9 22 22
8 The Secret in their STX Entertainment Thriller 19.5 20 12 32
Eyes
9 Mr. Holmes Roadside Attractions Crime n/a 18 12 30
Drama
10 Dope Open Road Films Comedy 7 18 0.4 18
Drama

Source: Compiled from Box Office Mojo, http://www.boxofficemojo.com/; and IMDb, http://www.imdb.com/, both
accessed September 2016.

Note: Excludes mini-majors Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company.

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Exhibit 12c Most Financially Successful Low-Budget Film Genres, 2000–2015

Extreme, Documentaries with Validating,


Clear-Concept Built-in Audiences/ Feel-Good Very High-
Horror Films Powerful Stories Religious Films Quality Dramas
Most Profitable Insidious, Monsters, Exit Through the Gift Fireproof, God’s Half Nelson,
The Devil Inside, Shop, An Inconvenient Not Dead, To Save Waitress,
Paranormal Activity 2, Truth, Marley, Tyson, a Life, War Room, Blue Valentine,
Dead Snow Bowling for Columbine Courageous Fruitvale Station
MPAA Ratinga Majority = R, others = All ratings, most Majority = PG, Majority = R,
PG-13 or not rated common = PG-13 others = PG-13 others = PG-13
Running Time 94 minutes on 102 minutes on 120 minutes on Wide range, 81
average average average to 154 minutes
Critical Reviewsb 49/100 79/100 26/100 81/100

Audience Ratingc 6.2/10 7.8/10 6.3/10 7.5/10

Release Patterns Half played in fewer Most played in fewer An average of Nearly all played
(North America) than 100 theaters, than 250 theaters 1,273 theaters in fewer than 300
half in over 1,500 theaters
Income Streams
Theatrical 28% 17% 29% 25%
Home video 60% 71% 55% 63%
TV & other 11% 12% 16% 12%
Income Location
U.S. & Canada 46% 42% 90% 66%
International 54% 58% 10% 34%

Source: Adapted from Stephen Follows and Bruce Nash, “What Types of Low-Budget Films Break Out?,” American Film
Market & Conferences, 2016, http://americanfilmmarket.com/what-types-of-low-budget-films-break-out/, accessed
February 2017.

Note: The data includes 63 films released between 2000 and 2015 with production budgets between $500,000 and $3 million
that generated at least $10 million in producer’s net profit.
a The MPAA rated films using the following system: G = All ages admitted; PG = Some material may not be suitable for children;
PG-13 = Some material may be inappropriate for children under 13; R = Under 17 requires accompanying parent or adult
guardian; NC-17 = No one 17 and under admitted.

b Critical reviews were based on Metascores, which are weighted averages of the reviews from highly respected critics. For more
information, see the Metacritic website at http://www.metacritic.com/.

c The audience rating was based on IMDb user ratings. These ratings were weighted averages that eliminated biased voting. For
more information, see the IMDb website at http://www.imdb.com/.

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Exhibit 13 Sample from The Black List, 2005

The Black List – 2005

twenty-five mentions
Things We Lost in the Fire Allan Loeb CAA Carin Sage

twenty-four mentions
Juno Diablo Cody Gersh Sarah Self

fifteen mentions
Lars and the Real Girl Nancy Oliver UTA Tobin Babst

fourteen mentions
Only Living Boy in New York Allan Loeb CAA Carin Sage

thirteen mentions
Charlie Wilson’s War Aaron Sorkin Endeavor Jason Spitz

ten mentions
Kiterunner, The David Benioff CAA Todd Feldman

nine mentions
Fanboys Adam Goldberg WMA Ken Freimann
Power of the Duff, The Stephen Belber BWCS Todd Hoffman

eight mentions
Against All Enemies Jamie Vanderbilt Endeavor Adriana Alberghetti

seven mentions
A Killing on Carnival Row Travis Beacham WMA Cliff Roberts
Peacock Michael Lander & Ryan O. Roy Endeavor Elia Infascelli-Smith

six mentions
Midlife Pirates Jordan Cahan BWCS Bill Zotti
Other Boleyn Girl, The Peter Morgan ICM Doug Maclaren

five mentions
1% More Humid Liz Garcia CAA Jill Cutler
Dance of the Mirlitons Evan Greenberg CAA Jay Baker
Horrible Bosses Mike Markowitz CAA Brian Kend
Lonny the Great Jay Reiss Endeavor Bryan Besser
Queen, The Peter Morgan ICM Doug Maclaren

four mentions
Bill Melissa Wallack Endeavor Bill Weinstein
Blind John Buffalo Mailer CAA Jay Baker
Counting Down Daniel Giat UTA Keya Khayatian
Stop Loss Kim Peirce CAA Beth Swofford

Source: Company documents.

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Exhibit 14 Select Oscar Nominations and Wins from The Black List, 2013–2015

Spotlight (2015)
Writers: Josh Singer, Tom McCarthy
Estimated budget: $20,000,000
Domestic gross: $44,988,180
Oscar nominations: Best Motion Picture of the Year (winner); Best Writing, Original Screenplay (winner)
Summary: The true story of how the Boston Globe uncovered the massive scandal of child molestation and
cover-up within the local Catholic Archdiocese, shaking the entire Catholic Church to its core.
Selma (2015)
Writer: Paul Webb
Estimated budget: $20,000,000
Domestic gross: $52,066,000
Oscar nomination: Best Motion Picture of the Year
Summary: A chronicle of Martin Luther King Jr.’s campaign to secure equal voting rights via an epic march
from Selma to Montgomery, Alabama in 1965.
Whiplash (2014)
Writer: Damien Chazelle
Estimated budget: $3,300,000
Domestic gross: $13,092,000
Oscar nominations: Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
Summary: A promising young drummer enrolls at a cut-throat music conservatory where his dreams of
greatness are mentored by an instructor who will stop at nothing to realize a student's potential.
The Imitation Game (2014)
Writers: Graham Moore, Andrew Hodges
Estimated budget: $14,000,000
Domestic gross: $91,121,452
Oscar nominations: Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay (winner); Best Motion Picture of the Year
Summary: During World War II, mathematician Alan Turing tries to crack the enigma code with help from
fellow mathematicians.
American Hustle (2013)
Writers: Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell
Estimated budget: $40,000,000
Domestic gross: $150,117,807
Oscar nominations: Best Motion Picture of the Year; Best Writing, Original Screenplay
Summary: A con man, Irving Rosenfeld, along with his seductive partner Sydney Prosser, is forced to work
for a wild FBI agent, Richie DiMaso, who pushes them into a world of Jersey powerbrokers and mafia.

Source: Compiled from IMDb, http://www.imdb.com/, accessed August 2016.

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Endnotes

1 Josh Rottenberg, “Franklin Leonard’s Black List Can Help Green-Light Screenplays,” Los Angeles Times, December 15, 2014,
http://www.latimes.com/local/great-reads/la-et-c1-franklin-leonard-black-list-20141215-story.html, accessed September
2016.
2 Steven Cahall, Kristina Warmus, Leo Kulp, and Kutgun Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector Analysis,”
RBC Capital Markets, April 7, 2016, p. 86, via Thomson One, accessed August 2016.
3 Motion Picture Production & Distribution—Industry Description, Hoover’s, Inc., accessed February 2017.

4 Nick Petrillo, “Movie & Video Production in the US,” December 2015, p. 20, via IBISWorld, accessed July 2016.

5 Tuna N. Amobi, “Industry Surveys—Media,” S&P Capital IQ, March 2016, p. 43, accessed July 2016.

6 Paul McDonald and Janet Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2008),
p. 51.
7 Jeff Ulin, The Business of Media Distribution: Monetizing Film, TV and Video Content in an Online World (Burlington, MA: Focal
Press, 2014), ebook, via Safari ProQuest, accessed August 2016.
8 Adam Davidson, “How Does the Film Industry Actually Make Money?,” New York Times Magazine, June 26, 2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/magazine/how-does-the-film-industry-actually-make-money.html, accessed
September 2016.
9 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 45.

10 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 48.

11 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 51.

12 Harold L. Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics—A Guide for Financial Analysis, 9th ed. (New York: Cambridge University
Press, 2015), pp. 135–136.
13 Cahall, Warmus, Kulp, and Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector Analysis,” p. 71.

14 Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics, 9th ed., p. 207.

15 Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics, 9th ed., p. 211.

16 Ethan Smith, “Filmmakers Shoot for Breaks; California Gives $100 Million in Rebates as Other States Poach From
Hollywood,” Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2012, via ABI/ProQuest, accessed September 2016.
17 Cahall, Warmus, Kulp, and Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector Analysis,” p. 74.

18 Pamela McClintock, “Take Note, Hollywood: The New Movie Money Is Here,” Hollywood Reporter, May 9, 2014,
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/take-note-hollywood-new-movie-701484, accessed August 2016.
19 Scot Foundas, “Three Game-Changing Female Producers Make Sure Passion-Driven Films Hit the Screen,” Variety, October
7, 2014, http://variety.com/2014/film/news/megan-ellison-gigi-pritzker-molly-smith-1201322765/, accessed August 2016.
20 Stephen Follows, “Do Hollywood movies make a profit?,” Stephen Follows Film Data and Education, July 25, 2016,
https://stephenfollows.com/hollywood-movies-make-a-profit/, accessed September 2016.
21 Edward Jay Epstein, interview in “We See Angelina’s Bottom Line,” Planet Money podcast, NPR, May 14, 2010,
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/05/the_friday_podcast_angelina_sh.html, accessed September 2016.
22 Tad Friend, “The Cobra: Inside a movie market’s playbook,” New Yorker, January 1, 2009,
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/01/19/the-cobra?currentPage=all, accessed August 2016.
23 Peter Bart, in “Corporate Town,” Frontline, n.d.,
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/hollywood/picture/corptown.html, accessed August 2016.
24 Brent Land and Lucas Shaw, “Greenlighting Movies in the Tentpole Era: A Tough Numbers Game,” The Wrap, November
19, 2013, http://www.thewrap.com/greenlighting-movies-tentpole-era-tough-numbers-game/, accessed August 2016.

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25 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 55.

26 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 59.

27 John W. Cones, Dictionary of Film Finance and Distribution: A Guide for Independent Filmmakers (New York: Algora Publishing,
2013), p. 9.
28 Cones, Dictionary of Film Finance and Distribution, p. 9.

29 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 59.

30 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 60.

31 AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., December 31, 2015 Form 10-K (filed March 8, 2016), p. 17,
http://investor.amctheatres.com/Cache/34739767.PDF?Y=&O=PDF&D=&FID=33288121&T=&OSID=9&IID=4171292,
accessed August 2016.
32 Richard Verrier, “U.S. steps up scrutiny of movie distribution,” Los Angeles Times, May 11, 2015,
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-theaters-doj-regal-entertainment-group-20150512-
story.html, accessed August 2016.
33 AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., December 31, 2015 Form 10-K (filed March 8, 2016), p. 17.

34 AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., December 31, 2015 Form 10-K (filed March 8, 2016), p. 15.

35 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 64.

36 Friend, “The Cobra: Inside a movie market’s playbook.”

37 Anita Elberse, Blockbusters: Hit-making, Risk-taking, and the Big Business of Entertainment (New York: Henry Holt and
Company, 2013), p. 64.
38 Elberse, Blockbusters, p. 65.

39 James Rainey, “The Perils of Promotion: Pricey TV Campaigns, Fear of Change Shackles Movie Spending,” Variety, March 8,
2016, http://variety.com/2016/film/news/movie-marketing-advertising-tv-campaigns-1201724468/, accessed August 2016.
40 Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics, 9th ed., p. 154.

41 Elberse, Blockbusters, p. 25.

42 Pamela McClintock, “$200 Million and Rising: Hollywood Struggles With Soaring Marketing Costs,” Hollywood Reporter,
July 31, 2014, http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/200-million-rising-hollywood-struggles-721818, accessed August
2016.
43 McClintock, “$200 Million and Rising: Hollywood Struggles With Soaring Marketing Costs.”

44 Rainey, “The Perils of Promotion: Pricey TV Campaigns, Fear of Change Shackles Movie Spending.”

45 McClintock, “$200 Million and Rising: Hollywood Struggles With Soaring Marketing Costs.”

46 McDonald and Wasko, eds., The Contemporary Hollywood Film Industry, p. 64.

47 Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics, 9th ed., p. 154.

48 Edward Jay Epstein, “Hearts of Blandness; In 2012, Hollywood’s current, blockbuster franchise-based business model
yielded record profits. Why change what works?,” Wall Street Journal online, August 6, 2013, via ABI/ProQuest, accessed
August 2016.
49 Epstein, “Hearts of Blandness.”

50 Cahall, Warmus, Kulp, and Maral, “Media & Entertainment Primer: Primetime Sector Analysis,” p. 76.

51 Ulin, The Business of Media Distribution.

52 Cones, Dictionary of Film Finance and Distribution, p. 11.

53 Ulin, The Business of Media Distribution.

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54 Vogel, Entertainment Industry Economics, 9th ed., p. 224.

55 Petrillo, “Movie & Video Production in the US,” December 2015, p. 7.

56 “2015 Theatrical Market Statistics,” Motion Picture Association of America, April 2016, p. 2, http://www.mpaa.org/wp-
content/uploads/2016/04/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2015_Final.pdf, accessed July 2016.
57 Derek Thompson, “The 6 Graphs You Need to See to Understand the Economics of Awful Blockbuster Movies,” The Atlantic,
July 10, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/07/the-6-graphs-you-need-to-see-to-understand-the-
economics-of-awful-blockbuster-movies/277691/, accessed September 2016.
58 “2015 Theatrical Market Statistics,” Motion Picture Association of America, p. 14.

59 Brooks Barnes, “Hollywood’s Summer of Extremes: Megahits, Superflops and Little Else,” New York Times, September 4,
2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/business/media/hollywoods-summer-of-extremes-megahits-superflops-and-
little-else.html?_r=0, accessed September 2016.
60 AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., December 31, 2015 Form 10-K (filed March 8, 2016), p. 24.

61 Nelson Granados, “Changes to Hollywood Release Windows Are Coming Fast and Furious,” Forbes, April 8, 2015,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nelsongranados/2015/04/08/changes-to-hollywood-release-windows-are-coming-fast-and-
furious/#4650019f5e5f, accessed August 2015.
62 Daniel Miller, “Sundance 2012: The Day-And-Date Success Story of ‘Margin Call,’” Hollywood Reporter, January 18, 2012,
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sundance-2012-margin-call-video-on-demand-zach-quinto-283033, accessed
September 2016.
63 “A tale of two Tinseltowns,” The Economist, February 23, 2013, http://www.economist.com/news/business/21572218-tale-
two-tinseltowns-split-screens, accessed September 2016.
64 Brett Lang, “Studios, Exhibitors Consider Revolutionary Plan for Day-and-Date Movies at Home (EXCLUSIVE),” Variety,
March 9, 2016, http://variety.com/2016/film/news/studios-exhibitors-consider-revolutionary-plan-for-day-and-date-movies-
at-home-exclusive-1201725168/, accessed September 2016.
65 Brooks Barnes, “Hollywood Divided Over Movie Streaming Service,” New York Times, March 20, 2016,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/21/business/media/hollywood-divided-over-movie-streaming-service.html, accessed
September 2016.
66 Barnes, “Hollywood Divided Over Movie Streaming Service.”

67 Petrillo, “Movie & Video Production in the US,” December 2015, p. 8.

68 Petrillo, “Movie & Video Production in the US,” December 2015, p. 24.

69 “2015 Theatrical Market Statistics,” Motion Picture Association of America, April 2016, p. 2.

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"Epic Games: Nineteen Eighty−Fortnite." Wu, Andy; Zhang, Miaomiao; Zhang, Christopher.
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"Spotify: Face the Music (2021 Update)." Vroom, Govert; Boquet, Isaac Sastre. Case No.
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"World Wrestling Entertainment, Inc." Elberse, Anita; Rodman, Melissa. Case No.
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"The Video−Streaming Wars in 2019: Can Disney Catch Netflix?" Elberse, Anita; Cody,
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Downloaded by XanEdu User FD27843B-1E3E-4499-A9C8-81D65EBEB39A_10380 on 2/23/2022. New York University, Charles Schreger, Spring 2022, 001,007
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