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CVL 245
IIT DELHI
CIVIL ENGINEERING MATERIALS.

( Lecture 12)
Project management: planning

B. Bhattacharjee
CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT
IIT DELHI

B. Bhattacharjee
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

General Outline
™Work breakdown structure
™Network AOA
™AON
™CPM
™PERT

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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A Automated distribution center

Activity No Description Preceding activity
1 Obtain Req. For Propos None
2 Select Vendor 1
3 Order system 2
4 Design Layout 2
5 Implement layout 4
6 Install computers 3,5
7 Configure software 6
8 Install equipment 3,5
9 Test System 7,8
10 Train user 9

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

PERT-AON Network

4 Design Layout
5 Implement Layout
ES= EF=
1 Obtain RFP D= ES= EF=
2 Select Vendor LS= LF= D=
ES=0 EF= ES= EF= LS= LF=
D= D=
LS=0 LF= LS= LF=
3 Order Systems
ES= EF=
D=
LS= LF=
10 Train user
ES= EF= 7 Configure software
D=
LS= LF= ES= EF= 8 Install equipment
D=
LS= LF= 6 Install computers
ES= EF=
ES= EF= D=
END D= LS= LF=
LS= LF=
9 Test System
ES= EF=
D=
LS= LF=

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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A Automated distribution center

te =
(to+4tm+ σa = (tp-to)
Activity No Description tO tm tP tp)/6 /6 Va =(σa)2
1 Obtain RFP 2 5 14 6 2 4
2 Select Vendor 1 3 11 4 1.7 2.89
3 Order system 2 6 10 6 1.3 1.69
4 Design Layout 4 6 14 7 1.7 2.89
5 Implement layout 6 8 16 9 1.7 2.89
6   Install computers 1 3 5 3 0.7 0.49
7 Configure software 1 2 9 3 1.3 1.69
8   Install  2 4 12 5 1.7 2.89
9 Test System 1 3 5 3 0.7 0.49
10 Train user 1 2 3 2 0.3 0.09

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

AON Network

4 Design Layout(4,6,14)
5 Implement Layout(6,8,16)
ES=10 EF=17
1 Obtain RFP (2,5,14) D=7 ES=17 EF=26
2 Select Vendor(1,3,11) LS=10 LF=17 D=9
ES=0 EF=6 ES=6 EF=10 LS=17 LF=26
D=6 D=4
LS=0 LF=6 LS=6 LF=10
3 Order Systems (2,6,10)
ES=10 EF=16
D=6
LS=20 LF=26
10 Train user(1,2,3)
7 Configure software 
ES=35 EF=37
D=2 (1,2,9)
LS=35 LF=37 8 Install equipment (2,4,12)
ES=29 EF=32 6 Install computers 
D=3 ES=26 EF=31
LS=29 LF=32 (1,3,5) D=5
END LS=27 LF=32
ES=26 EF=29
9 Test System (1,3,5) D=3
LS=26 LF=29
ES=32 EF=35
D=3
LS=32 LF=35

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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PERT duration
Critical Path (through activities):1-2-4-5-6-7-9-10
Expected (mean)Project duration=
6 4 7 9 3 3 3 2 =37

SD of activity duration.
2 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.3

VP = ∑Va oncrticical path

σ P = VP
4 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.49 1.69 0.49 0.09 VP=15.43

σP=15.43½=3.93

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

PERT duration
x−μ
Z= ;
σ
99.9% of time project
would be completed
by Mean+3×SD of
project duration, i.e.
Z=3
(95% of project will be
completed
Mean+1.65×SD of
project duration, i.e.
Z=1.65
In general p(D) for
D=μproj +Z×σproj from
graph or table

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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Cont…
Thus 50% probability that the project is expected to
complete by 37 days.

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

Cont…
Thus 50% probability that the project is expected to
complete by 37 days.

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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Cont…
Probability that the project is expected to complete by 37+
3.93=41 days is 84.1%.

Probability that the

project is expected to
complete 33 days :
Z=(33-37)/3.93≈ - 1;
15.9%
Probability that the
project is expected to
complete 45 days :
Z=(45-37)/3.93≈ 2;
Hence 97.7%
B. Bhattacharjee
11
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

Near critical path (AOA)

Expected (mean)Project duration=4+6+9+1=20

σP=(1+2+5+1)½=3 months
Probability of completion within 17-23 months:
Z=(17-20)/3=-1; Z=(23-20)/3=1

B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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Cont…
Probability of completion within 17-23 months:
Area within z= -1 to 1 in standard normal
distribution curve

σP σP

Mean+SD to Mean –SD;=(0.841-0.159)×100=68.2%

This is considering 1-2-4-5-8 as critical path.
Path 1-6-7-8 is mean duration 19 days and near
critical.
B. Bhattacharjee
13
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

Cont…
Path 1-6-7-8 is mean duration 19 days and near
critical.

Expected TP =2+7+10=19; SDσP=(1+8+16)½= 5

Probability of completion of these activities within
23 months: Z=(23-19)/5=0.8 corresponds to 78.8%
These two paths are independent paths thus their joint
probability of completion is product of
0.841×0.788=0.662; i.e., 66.2%
B. Bhattacharjee
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DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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THANK YOU
FOR HEARING

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, IIT DELHI

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