NAME: VERNON M.

ESCLETO

YEAR/COURSE/SECTION: 3 BSABE-B

1D Observing Storm Forecast

Follow a storm inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Download daily forecast
tracks (maps) for the whole duration of the storm inside PAR. Upload a satellite image of the

storm.
Answer the following questions by either uploading document or respond on the text editor.

 What is the general pattern of storm tracks? Why do you think the reason for this
pattern?

The storm tracks follow a general pattern from the east of Northern
Luzon inside of the Philippine area of the responsibility to the west of Dagupan
City and the tracks Continued to the west of Northern Luzon outside Philippine
area of responsibility. September 22, 2022, a low-pressure area in Central Luzon
developed into Tropical Depression KARDING. This Tropical Depression KARDING
became a Tropical Storm east of Northern Luzon. On September 24, 2022, TS
KARDING became a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moved west
southwestward. September 26, 2022 at 8:00 PM, the center of the eye of

Typhoon "KARDING" exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility. This pattern

was results by the surface winds, also known as trade winds, which blow from
east to west and are responsible for tropical cyclones' general westward motion.

 How do you assess the accuracy of the forecast tracks? You can do this by comparing
the current forecast with the forecast the previous day.

By accessing the accuracy of the forecast, I use to compare the different

forecast that I’ve gathered, the forecast yesterday and the current forecast, and
the forecast pattern of the PAAGSA and the satellite image forecast of zoom
earth. By comparing the storm's pattern, you can now determine the exact
location and direction of the storm.

Another way to evaluate its accuracy is to solve the percentage error or

"Percent Difference."

Error rate = (Observed value- Actual value)/Actual Value x 100

Accuracy = 100%- Error Rate

 The table shows about the difference between the actual value and the
forecast value expressed as a percentage of the forecast value.

Date Forecast of the Current Forecast Accuracy

Previous day 8:00 AM
8:00 AM
09/23/2022 Latitude 17.9°N Latitude 18.06°N 97.01%
Longitude 133.6°E. longitude 132.36°E.
MSW of 65 km/hr. MSW of 70 km/hr.
Tropical Storm. Tropical Storm
09/24/2022 Latitude 17.1°N Latitude 16.24°N 85.36%
longitude 128.4°E. longitude 128.0°E.
MSW of 70 km/hr. MSW of 95 km/hr.
Tropical Storm Tropical Storm
09/25/2022 Latitude 15.0°N Latitude 15.0°N 86.14%
longitude 123.9°E. longitude 123.42°E.
MSW of 150 km/hr. MSW of 255 km/hr.
Typhoon Super Typhoon
09/26/2022 Latitude 15.8°N Latitude 15.54°N, 98.08%
longitude 118.7°E. longitude 118.24°E.
MSW of 130 km/hr. MSW of 135 km/hr.
Typhoon Typhoon
Accuracy of the forecast tracks 91.65%
Since the forecast starts at 22 and there is no forecast of the previous day the table starts at 09/23/2022.

I use to compare the different forecast that I’ve gathered, the forecast yesterday and
the current forecast to assess the accuracy of the forecast tracks and this results a
91.65% accurate
 What is meant by the colors of the satellite image you printed or pasted?

The colors intended in the satellite image mean the exact location of the rainfall.
Also, the color represents the precipitation rate. Blue and light blue indicate very light
rain, which is defined as scattered drops that do not completely wet an exposed surface
regardless of duration. Green denotes light rain with a precipitation rate of 0.6 to 1.5
mm/hr, yellow moderate rain with a precipitation rate of 1.8 to 2.4 mm/hr, orange
heavy rain with a precipitation rate of 2.4 to 3.16 mm/hr, red torrential rain with a
precipitation rate greater than 6.5 mm/hr.

 What is the extent of the rainfall band around the eye of the storm? 
The typhoon Karding became more explosive and became super typhoon. At
8:00 PM on September 25, 2022, the diameter of the forecast track was 160km, which is
Signal No. 5, with winds up to 195km/h and heavy to intense rains, at times torrential.
As a result, the color of the storm area on the satellite with a diameter of 160km is red.
Signal No. 4 for a diameter of 330km from the forecast track, with winds up to 110km/h
and moderate to heavy rains at times. Signal No. 4 on the satellite is orange in color.
Signal No. 3 for a diameter of 730 kilometers from the forecast track, with winds up to
61kilometers per hour and light to moderate rains at times. The color of the rainfall
band around the storm's eye is yellow.

 How is the rainfall pattern in Mindanao affected by the storm?

The storm Karding had no affected on the rainfall patterns in Mindanao. The
Southwest Monsoon, which brings rain to our country from June to September, is
predicted by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). On September 26, 2022, we did not experience rain due to a
typhoon but rather due to the Southwest Monsoon, which is Mindanao's seasonal
pattern of rainfall also the strengthened southwest monsoon could also result in
moderate to rough seas along Southern Luzon's western coast, Visayas and Mindanao.
However, it is dangerous to small vessels to head out to sea due to the rough seas.