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SYS100
Systems Thinking

ALDRIN J. ROMERO
Student

JEAN CARREM R. ESPARCIA, LPT, MSIT

Subject Instructor
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Module 1

LESSON 1 - Introduction to Systems Thinking

Specific Learning Outcomes:
1. Define Systems Thinking.
2. Identify the different approaches to problem-solving.

Motivation
What are your expectations on this subject, "System Thinking"?

My expectation on this subject is that, it will help me to develop on understanding the

value of other opinions, and see things from a different perspective. I also expect that
through this subject, I will be able to develop my critical thinking on how to
brainstorm certain variables to certain issues.

Learning Activities/Exercises 1
In your understanding, kindly define Systems Thinking?

For me, system thinking is a unique way of approaching methodic or systemic behavior.
In essence, it is a different way of seeing and talking about the reality we live in each
day. By understanding and thinking in this way, were also able to create a different set of
tools for approaching each problem.

Learning Activities/Exercises 2

In your idea, contrast between Reinforcing Loop and Balancing Loop.

__In my idea, reinforcing loop tend to encourage the system to continue in that particular
direction in a circular way. While, balancing loops tend to encourage the system to stay
inbalance and follow the negative signs that are in odd numbers such as 1, 3, 5, etc. __

Teacher Intervention
For your questions/clarifications, please contact me (Group Chat/09266722267)
every Monday-Friday from 8:00 a.m. until 5:00 in the afternoon. In texting/calling, please identify
first yourself with the subject and time.

Assessment
What do you think is the reason why variables need to be measured?

Variables are the elements that can be seen, observe and found in the
society. I think the reason why variables need to be measured is in order to
know its corresponding value that can come up a good meaning and serves
as the guide to understand the problem well. Otherwise, it is for us to know if
the effect of one variable can increased or decreased the
cause of other variable

Assignment
Enrichment Activity
How can system thinking to be applied in the ongoing challenges of the
COVID-19 Pandemic?
_Systems thinking is define as the process of understanding how things regarded
as systems, influence one another within a whole. In the ongoing challenges of the
COVID-19 pandemic the system thinking can be applied through creating the
system that will identify the current issues and solve a particular problem of the
pandemic that we are still facing nowadays through performing reading,
brainstorming of elements or variables that might be the causes, effect and
solution , validating, measure finding causal loop, develop a reinforcing loop and
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develop a balancing loop. Since, Systems thinking has been defined as an
approach to problem-solving by viewing “problems” as parts of an overall system,
rather than reacting to a specific part, outcomes, or events and potentially
contributing to further unintended consequences.

Reflection or Insights

MINUTE PAPER

Upon reading and answering this module, I really learned a lot especially in
creating a system thinking that I did not done before. I learn how to analyze
problem and think of its causes, the effect and the solution in order come up a
better structure that tend to explain easier the concept of such problems and
circumstances. Well, the question that I still have in my mind is what happened if
the problem doesn’t have specific solutions as of now?
Indeed, I like the best in this lesson is on the part of connecting the relationship
of each variables because it challenge me to think and analyze why it was
related to each other and how it is connected.
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LESSON 2 - Natural Systems: Global Warming

Specific Learning Outcomes:
1. Brainstorm.
2. Validate the variables.
3. Measure the variables into frequency, volume, intensity, area, mass, velocity,
currency, Celsius, Fahrenheit, #, etc.
4. Show the relationship.
5. Find the causal loop.
6. Develop a reinforcing loop.
7. Create a balancing loop.

Motivation
In your own words, what is the difference between global warming and climate
change?

Global warming merely refers to the planet's surface temperature increasing, but
climate change also refers to the "side effects" of warming, such as glaciers
melting, more intense storms, or frequent droughts. Or, to put it another way,
global warming is a symptom of the far more serious issue of climate change
brought on by humans.

Discussion

The following is taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change.

Average global temperatures from 2010 to 2019 compared to a baseline average from 1951 to
1978. Source: NASA.

“Climate change includes global warming driven by human emissions of greenhouse

gases and the resulting large-scale weather patterns. Though there have been previous
periods of climatic change, since the mid-20th century, the rate of human impact on
Earth's climate system and the global scale of that impact has been unprecedented.
Human activity has caused climate change to be not disputed by any scientific body of
national or international standing. The most significant driver has been the emission of
greenhouse gases, of which more than 90% are carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane.
Fossil fuel burning for energy consumption is the primary source of these emissions,
with additional contributions from agriculture, deforestation, and industrial processes. In
addition, the temperature rise is accelerated or tempered by climate feedbacks, such as
loss of sunlight-reflecting snow and ice cover, increased water vapor (a greenhouse gas
itself), and changes to land and ocean carbon sinks.
Because land surfaces heat faster than ocean surfaces, deserts expand, and heat
waves and wildfires are more common. Surface temperature rise is most remarkable in
the Arctic, where it has contributed to melting permafrost and the retreat of glaciers and
sea ice. Increasing atmospheric energy and evaporation rates cause more intense
storms and weather extremes, damaging infrastructure and agriculture. In addition, rising
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temperatures are limiting ocean productivity and harming fish stocks in most parts of the
globe.
Current and anticipated effects from undernutrition, heat stress and disease have led the
World Health Organization to declare climate change the greatest threat to global health
in the 21st century. Decreased air pollution alone due to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
(or 2 °C without negative emissions) could prevent an estimated 153 million premature
deaths worldwide over the remainder of the 21st century. Environmental effects include
the extinction or relocation of many species as their ecosystems change, most
immediately in coral reefs, mountains, and the Arctic. Even if efforts to minimize future
warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries, including rising sea
levels, rising ocean temperatures, and ocean acidification from elevated levels of CO2.
These effects are already observed at the current warming level, about 1.1 °C (2.0 °F).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued reports showing
significant increases in these impacts as warming continues to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) and
beyond. Under the Paris Agreement, nations agreed to keep warming "well under 2.0 °C
(3.6 °F)" by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, under those pledges, global
warming would reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century, and current
policies will result in about 3.0 °C (5.4 °F) of warming. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C (2.7
°F) would require halving emissions by 2030, then reaching near-zero levels by 2050.
Mitigation efforts include researching, developing, and deploying low-carbon energy
technologies, enhanced energy efficiency, policies to reduce fossil fuel emissions,
reforestation, and forest preservation.
Climate engineering techniques, most prominently solar radiation management and
carbon dioxide removal, have substantial limitations and significant uncertainties.
Societies and governments are also working to adapt to current and future global-
warming effects through improved coastline protection, better disaster management, and
the development of more resistant crops.”

After showing you all the processes in Lesson 1, it is your turn to do the following:
1. brainstorm;
2. validate the variables;
3. measure the variables into frequency, volume, intensity, area, mass, velocity,
currency, Celsius, Fahrenheit, #, etc.;
4. show the relationship;
5. find the causal loop;
6. develop a reinforcing loop; and
7. create a balancing loop.

Just follow what has been discussed. Enjoy!

Learning Activities/Exercises 1
Brainstorm: Think and list 20 variables as a problem and solution on Global Warming.

1. Population 6. Drought 11. Floods 16. Solar energy

2. Global warming 7. Deforestation 12. Death 17. Wind energy
3. Disease 8. Preservation 13. Economic loss 18. Education
4. Greenhouse gases 9. Wildfires 14. Species extinction 19. Temperature
5. Fossil fuels 10. Storms 15. Electricity 20. Pollution

Validate and measure the variables (list all validated variables and exclude those that
are not related to Global Warming):

Industrialization – area Drought - area Electricity – kilowatt hrs.

Death - # Deforestation – area Temperature - celsius
Disease - # Wildfire – area Economic loss - GDP
Preservation – often Greenhouse gases – % Fossil fuels – %
Global warming - % Solar energy – kilowatt hrs. Population - #

Meaning
Industrialization is measured area.
Death is measured by number.
Disease is measured by number.
Preservation is measured by area.
Global warming is measured by percentage.
Drought is measured by area.
Deforestation is measured by area.
Wildfire is measured by area.
Greenhouse gases is measured by percentage
Solar energy is measured by kilowatt hours.
Electricity is measured by kilowatt hours.
Temperature is measured by Celsius scale.
Economic loss is measured by GDP.
Fossil fuels is measured by percentage.
Population is measured by number.
Show the relationship and find the causal loop. (connecting the variables)
Learning Activities/Exercises 2:
Develop a reinforcing loop.
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The area of industrialization.
The total number of death.
The number of disease people.
The area that needs to be preserve.
The total percentage of affected area.
The area affected by drought.
The affected area of deforestation.
The area affected by wildfire.
The total percentage of affected area.
The kilowatt per hours needs to be consumed.
The kilowatt hours being consumed.
The degree Celsius of temperature.
The total economic loss to the total value of
everything (the goods and services).
The total percentage of fossil fuels being used.
The number of total population.
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Create a balancing loop.

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Teacher Intervention
For your questions/clarifications, please contact me (Group Chat/09266722267)
every Monday-Friday from 8:00 a.m. until 5:00 in the afternoon. In texting/calling, please identify
first yourself with the subject and time.

Assessment
What is a causal loop, and what is its purpose?

A causal loop is a diagram that shows the interactions between the variables
of a system. It shows the cause and effect relationship. The purpose of causal
loop is to connect the related variables by the use of loop.

Assignment
Enrichment Activity
Copy/cut and paste of a causal loop image, and what makes up a causal loop?

It makes up a causal loop in a way that the variables are interconnected to each
other and shows the cause and effect relationship together with their solutions that mitigate
the problem of global warming.

Reflection or Insights
How much did you know about the subject "Systems Thinking before we started?

Well, to rate between 1-10 my knowledge about the subject is under 5 before we are
started. Since I only know about problem-solving but not the entire process on how to
create it.
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