1 – What is Food Security?

Based on the 1996 World Food Summit, food security is defined as when all people, at all
times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary
needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

1.1 – 5A’s of Food Security

 Available: There is always enough food for all people

 Adequate: All people can have nutritious food that
meets their physical, emotional, and spiritual needs
 Acceptable: All food is produced and consumed in
culturally-appropriate, sustainable, and dignified ways
 Accessibility: All people can eat well, free from
physical, economic, social, or political barriers
 Agency: All people understand, benefit from, and can
make changes to the food system.

2 – Food Insecurity in Pakistan

2.1 – Pakistan as Agrarian Country

Pakistan is primarily an agrarian country with an agriculture sector that is a major source
of economic activities, livelihood of the majority of population, caretaker of food and
nutritional security and a means to combat rural poverty. Out of the total area of 79.6
million hectares, 22.1 million hectares are cultivated. Moreover, Pakistan being ranked at
8th in producing wheat, 10th in rice, 5th in sugarcane, and 4th in milk production,
Pakistan is still facing serious threats to its food security.

2.2 – Empirical Evidences of Food Insecurity in Pakistan

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP): Despite a 2019

report of the SBP showed that nearly 37% of
households in Pakistan are food insecure. In the
three years since the SBP’s report, matters have
only worsened. Food price inflation in Pakistan
has been in double digits since August 2019.
The cost of food has been 10.4-19.5% higher
than the previous year in urban areas and 12.6-
23.8% in rural areas, according to figures published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
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 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS): As per PBS report, 16% of the population is
experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity. The incidence is twice as high among
the rural population, 20%, as among the urban, 9.2%. Moreover, three out of five
households are experiencing food insecurity.

World Food Programme: Around 82% of children in Pakistan have been deprived of a
meal when they need one and approximately 18% of children under the age of five suffer
from acute malnutrition and 40% of children in the same age group suffer from stunted
growth.

Global Hunger Index (GHI): Pakistan

ranked 99th out of 121 nations in the in
2022 and country’s level of hunger is
categorized as ‘serious’. On the regional
level, Pakistan is better positioned as
compared to India (ranked 107); while
the other two close regional neighbors,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, outshine
Pakistan by grabbing ranks of 84 and 64,
respectively.

US Department of Agriculture: According to the International Food Security

Assessment, in the coming decade from 2021-31, a total of 38% of the population of
Pakistan is going to be food insecure.

3 – Threats to Food Security in Pakistan

3.1 – Climate Change

Climate change is a direct threat to Pakistan’s food production. Sixty percent of the
population of Pakistan is directly or indirectly reliant upon rain-fed agriculture that depends
on predictable weather patterns. The floods of 2010 were the worst disaster in Pakistan’s
history as the country faced a loss of $10 billion while its food insecurity increased by 10%.

A study points out that in Pakistan climate change will decrease agricultural productivity by
8-10% till 2040 and wheat will be one of the major losers. Another study predicts that the
worst impact of climate change will be felt by wheat and rice (especially Basmati rice) crops
in the coming years. It anticipates that wheat yield will decrease by 6% and the Basmati rice
yield will fall by 15-18% across Pakistan, except for the northern areas.

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 3.1.1 – Impact of Recent Floods on Major Food Crops

The World Bank recently stated that, “Pakistan is still facing the aftermaths of this
flood and has suffered a loss of $32 billion in the shape of flood damages.” The report
suggested that an output loss of 31% of the total rice crop (2.6 million tonnes lost)
taking the estimated loss to $0.75 billion. Moreover, output loss of 7% of the total
sugarcane crop (5.7 Million tonnes loss) translates into valued at $0.017 billion loss.

3.2 – Water Scarcity

Pakistan ranks 14th among the 17 ‘extremely high water-risk’ regions in the world.
Moreover, more than 80pc of its population faces ‘severe water scarcity.’ Total water
availability plunged from 5,330 cubic meters per inhabitant at the time of independence to
just 1,187 in 2017. The present situation is just another reminder that Pakistan may become
the most water-stressed nation in the region by 2040 due to climate change, population
explosion, mismanagement of water resources and more. Pakistan is headed towards a serious
water crisis and experts estimate that the country will run out of water if the government does
not take action in this regard. Approximately 95 per cent of Pakistan’s water is used for
agriculture, with 60 per cent of its population directly involved in agriculture.

3.3 – Time Tickling Bomb of Population Growth

Pakistan’s population grows at an annual rate of 1.9 per cent, more than two times (237 per
cent) of the global annual rate of 0.8 per cent in 2022. This exorbitant growth exerts huge
pressure on natural resources, energy and food requirements.

3.4 – Russia-Ukraine War

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war also jeopardized the food security as 39 percent of Pakistan’s
wheat imports were used to come from Ukraine, which remains the fifth largest wheat exporter
globally. Russian blockades around the black sea have hampered Ukrainian wheat exports and
global supply chains. This has resulted in escalation of wheat prices in the international market.
Exports from Ukraine have recently resumed after being frozen for months which will lessen
the risks of a global food crisis.

3.5 – Troubles in Fertilizer Industry Leads to Food Crisis

Indigenous gas reserves are depleting rapidly and reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has
been increased. However, inability to procure LNG from international market has not only
posed serious threats to Power sector but also on Fertilizer sector as fertilizer manufacturing
plant uses gas as fuel. It is apprehended that Government may have to resort to Gas Load
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 Management Plan for domestic and industrial consumers including fertilizer companies. This
will induce a reduction in fertilizer production and continuation of fertilizer shortage in the
market. This crisis of fertilizer production and availability is likely to become intense in rabi
2022-23 as gas prices will rise further during the winter.

Severe shortage of fertilizer and a surge in its prices affected the farmers during the last Kharif
and Rabi crops. Pakistan missed its wheat production target of 28.9 million metric tonnes
(MMT) primarily due to low fertilizer off take and unfavorable weather conditions.

3.6 – High Input Costs

The Agri Forum Pakistan (AFP) has claimed that prices of agricultural inputs such as diesel,
electricity, seed, fertilizers and pesticides have gone up by 200 to 250 percent in the last four
years due to which production of different crops, vegetables, fruits and oilseed crops have
declined substantially.

3.7 – Locust Attacks

In 2020, the desert locusts migrated towards the arable land of Pakistan, including the Northern
regions and destroyed several crops and ate anything and everything from seeds to flowers
with an amazing speed of 93.2 miles per day. The desert locusts swallowed a large number of
crops in almost all the provinces of Pakistan. According to FAO, the locusts damaged crops in
a day that would feed up to 35,000 people. In 2021, 23.4% of the Punjab’s Pakpattan district
was invaded by swarms, 16.2% of the Bahawalnagar district, and 10.6% of Lodhran district
(National Locust Control Centre 2021).

3.8 – Low Crop Yield

Pakistan’s low crop yield per

hectare has not gotten any better
for a long time and now it has
sunk to one of the lowest levels in
the world. Pakistan’s agricultural
productivity ranges between 29%
and 52%, far lower than the
world’s best averages for major
commodities, the report says.

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  Wheat: Pakistan produces 3.1 tons of wheat from one hectare, which is just 38% of the
8.1 tons produced in France - the world’s best productivity.
 Sugarcane: yield stands at 63.4 tons per hectare in Pakistan, which is 51% of the
125.1 tons Egypt produces from every hectare
 Rice: Pakistan produces 2.7 tons from every hectare, which is merely 29% of the 9.2
tons per hectare in the US.
 Maize: productivity is estimated at 4.6 tons per hectare, 41% of the 11.1 tons that
France is producing.
 Cotton: Pakistan produces 2.5 tons of cotton per hectare, which is 52% of the 4.8 tons
produced in China.

3.9 – Reliance on Food Imports

From last few years, Pakistan has transitioned from a self-sufficient to net importer of essential
food crops like wheat and sugar. Besides, 90% - 95% edible oil is imported from Indonesia and
Malaysia. Pulses are imported from New Zealand, Australia, USA etc.

With changing international dynamics amidst Ukraine-Russia War and Covid-19, international
food market has become uncertain where every country is looking to ensure food availability
for their people.

3.10 – Dearth of Foreign Exchange Reserve and Food Security

Despite the bailout package by IMF and credit rollover by friendly countries; foreign exchange
reserves of Pakistan are around US $08 billion which is not enough to cover 02 months’
imports. In this scenario, food related imports i.e. wheat, fertilizer, pulses, palm oil etc. would
exert pressure on already scarce foreign exchange reserve.

4 – Emerging Threats to Food Security vis-a-vis Major Crops / Food Items

4.1 – Wheat

It accounts for 9.2 percent of the value added in agriculture and 1.8 percent of the GDP.
Presently, wheat sowing across the country is in full swing against the set production target for
the 2022-23 season i.e., 28.4 million metric tonnes (MMT). It is worth mentioning that
projected demand for the season is 30 MMT meaning thereby that Pakistan will have to import
almost 02 MMT wheat even if it succeeded to achieve production target which is unlikely.

4.2 – Sugar

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 Its production accounts for 3.4 percent in agriculture’s value addition and 0.7 percent in GDP.
In current season, sugar production was 7.9 MMT against the annual demand of 6.2 MMT so
surplus stock claimed by PSMA is around 1.7 MMT. PSMA had requested the Government to
grant export permission of 0.5 MMT to 01 MMT sugar.

Moreover, World Bank has estimated that in the aftermath of recent flood, 7% of the total
sugarcane crop has been destroyed so there will be less production in coming season so
Pakistan may to resort to import sugar to meet its demand.

4.3 – Rice

It contributes 3.5 percent of value added in agriculture and 0.7 percent in GDP. Pakistan, the
world's fourth-largest rice exporter, is forecast to have lost around 10% of its 2022 estimated
rice production of around 8.7 million tonnes due to various factors including the floods. In
Balochistan, rice was cultivated in the districts of Dera Bugti, Naseerabad and Jaffarabad.
Approximately, 280,000 acres of land and 310,000 tons of rice have been damaged which is
valued at Rs28 billion.

4.4 – Palm Oil

Pakistan meet its 90-95% requirement of palm oil by importing through Indonesia and
Malaysia. After Covid-19, in a bid to ensure enough supplies in its local market, Indonesia
being the world’s largest palm oil exporter had banned its exports which impacted the supply
chain in international market that had resulted in price escalation of one Kg edible oil to
Rs.600. If the same happens in future, it will have devastating impact on local market.

5 – Recommendation

i. Government must maintain strategic reserve of essential food items.

ii. Concrete measure may be taken to control the food inflation
iii. Mass awareness campaign and provision of contraceptives to control the population growth
iv. Option of Wheat Import from Russia may be materialized to avoid the shortfall.
v. uninterrupted gas supply to fertilizer manufacturing companies may be ensured.
vi. Preemptive collaborative action may be taken to control locust attacks
vii. As a long term policy, steps should make structural reform to mitigate the impact of climate
Change.
viii. Quality seed, fertilizer and educational awareness alongwith incentive may be given to farmer
to adopt new scientific method for better crop yield.

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