ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善

Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

LESSON 5 Elements of Set Theory – Tools for

Defining Events
Mathematics of Probability

Reading
Read the following textbook passage about the design and decision making under
uncertainty. Then answer the comprehension questions below.

Elements of Set Theory – Tools for Defining Events

Mathematical Operations of Sets

 Two or more sets, or events, can be combined in only two ways – Union and
Intersection.
 The notations designate sets and the associated operations are as follows:
∪=𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑜𝑛
∩=𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
⊃=𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑠
⊂=𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑡𝑜, 𝑜𝑟 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛
E =𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐸

Equality of Sets
 Two sets are equal if and only if both sets contain exactly the same sample
points. On this basis, we observe that
𝐴∪∅=𝐴
in which ∅ is the null (or empty) set.

 Also,
𝐴∩∅=∅

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Equality of Sets
 Furthermore.
𝐴∪𝐴=𝐴
𝐴∩𝐴=𝐴
 For the sample space 𝑆,
𝐴∪𝑆=𝑆
whereas
𝐴∩𝑆=𝐴

On Complementary Sets
 With regard to an event 𝐸 and its complement  E , we observe the following:
𝐸 ∪ E  = 𝑆
whereas
𝐸∩E=∅
and
E=𝐸
 That is, the complement of the complementary event yields the original event.

Commutative Rule
 The union and intersection of sets are commutative; that is, for two sets 𝐴 and
𝐵:
𝐴∪𝐵=𝐵∪𝐴
 Also
𝐴∩𝐵=𝐵∩𝐴

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Associative Rule
 The union and intersection of sets are also associative; that is, for three sets, 𝐴,
𝐵, and 𝐶:
(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∪ 𝐶 = 𝐴 ∪ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)
 Also
(𝐴𝐵) 𝐶 = 𝐴 (𝐵𝐶)

Distributive Rule
 Finally, the union and intersection of sets are distributive, that is, for three sets
𝐴, 𝐵, and 𝐶:
(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶= 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ∪ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 𝑜𝑟 𝐴𝐶 ∪ 𝐵𝐶
 And also,
(𝐴𝐵) ∪ 𝐶 = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) ∩ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶)

 Commutative, associative, and distributive rules are similar to the algebraic

rules.
 With the following equivalences — union for addition and intersection for
multiplication (i.e., ∪→+ and ∩→×) — the rules of conventional algebra apply
to operations of sets or events.
 Intersection takes precedence over Union of sets
 Addition and Multiplication have no meaning for sets or events.
 No equivalent operations for subtraction or division of sets.
 On the other hand, there are operations and operational rules that apply to sets
that have no counterparts in conventional algebra. For example, for a set 𝐴
𝐴∪𝐴=𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴∩𝐴=𝐴

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

 Another case in point is the second of the distributive rule described above,
which says that
(𝐴 ∪ C)(B ∪ C) = 𝐴B ∪ AC ∪ BC ∪ CC
but,
𝐵𝐶 ∪ 𝐶𝐶 = 𝐶
Similarly,
𝐴𝐶 ∪ 𝐶𝐶 = 𝐶
Hence the final results is
(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶)(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝐴𝐵 ∪ 𝐶

 In conventional algebra we should have

(𝑎 + 𝑐)(𝑏 + 𝑐) = 𝑎𝑏 + 𝑎𝑐 + 𝑏𝑐 + c 2 ≠ 𝑎𝑏 + 𝑐
 Finally, another important rule that applies to sets but has no counterpart in
conventional algebra is the de Morgan’s rule

De Morgan’s Rule
 This rule relates to sets and their complements. For two sets, or events, E1 and
E2, the de Morgan’s rule says that
E1 ∪ E2 = E1  ∩ E2

 The general validity of this relation can be shown with the Venn diagrams in Fig.
2.6.
 The unhatched region in Fig. 2.6a is clearly E1 ∪ E2 .

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

 The two Venn diagrams in Fig. 2.6b show, respectively, the complementary sets
E1  and E2 

 The intersection of which is the double-hatched region in Fig. 2.6c

 From Figs. 2.6a and 2.6c, we see the equality of the two sets
E1 ∪ E2 = E1 ∩ E2 , thus verifying the de Morgan’s rule.
 In more general terms, the de Morgan’s rule is
E1 ∪ E2 ∪ ⋯ En=E 1 ∩ E 2 ∩⋯ ∩ E n ( 2.3 a )

 Applying Eq. 2.3a to the complements of E1 , E2 , ..., En , we have

E1 ∪ E2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ En=E 1 E2 ⋯ En
 Thence, taking the complements of both sides of the above equation, the de
Morgan’s rule can be stated also as
E1 E2 ⋯ En=E 1 ∪ E2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ En ( 2.3 b )
 In light of Eqs. 2.3a and 2.3b, we can establish the following duality relation:
The complement of the unions and intersections of events is equal to the
intersections and unions of the respective complements of the same events.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

 The following examples illustrate the above duality relation:

A ∪BC = A ∩ BC =A ( B ∪ C )
( A ∪ B ) C=( A ∪ B ) ∪ C= A B ∪ C

Example 2.12 – Question Description

 The water supply for two cities 𝐶 and 𝐷 comes from the two sources 𝐴 and 𝐵 as
shown in Fig. E2.12. Water is transported by pipelines consisting of branches 1,
2, 3, and 4. Assume that either one of the two sources, by itself, is sufficient to
supply the water for both cities

Example 2.12 – Explanation

 Denote:
E1=failure of branch 1
E2=failure of branch 2
E3 =failure of branch 3
E 4=failure of branch 4
 Failure of a pipe branch means there is serious leakage or rupture of the
branch.
 Shortage of water in city 𝐶 would be represented by E1 ∩ E2 ∪ E 3, and its
complement E1 E2 ∪ E 3 means that there is no shortage of water in city 𝐶.
 Applying the de Morgan’s rule, we have

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

E 1 E2 ∪ E 3=( E1 ∪ E2 ) E3

 The last event above means that there is no failure in branch 1 or branch 2 and
also no failure in branch 3.
 Similarly, shortage of water in city D would be the event E1 E2 ∪ E 3 ∪ E 4.
Therefore, no shortage of water in city D is
E 1 E2 ∪ E 3 ∪ E 4 = ( E 1 ∪ E 2 ) E 3 E 4

which means that there is sufficient supply at the station, i.e., ( E1 ∪ E2 ) , and
there are no failures in both branches 3 and 4, represented by E3 E4 .

Mathematics of Probability
 Theory of probability is based on certain fundamental axioms:
 Axiom 1: For every event 𝐸 in a sample space 𝑆, there is a probability
P ( E ) ≥ 0. ( 2.4 )
 Axiom 2: The probability of the certain event 𝑆 is
P ( S )=1. ( 2.5 )
 Axiom 3: Finally, for two events E1∧E 2 that are mutually exclusive,
P ( E1 ∪ E 2 )=P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) . ( 2.6 )

 On the basis of Axiom 1 and 2, it follows that the probability of an event E is

bounded between 0 and 1.0; that is,
0 ≤ P ( E ) ≤ 1. 0
 With regard to Axiom 3, we may observe intuitively that from a relative
frequency standpoint, if an event E1 occurs n1 times among 𝑛 repetitions of an
experiment, and another event E2 occurs n2 times in the same 𝑛 repetitions, in
which E1∧E 2 cannot occur simultaneously (they are mutually exclusive), then
E1∨E 2will have occurred ( n 1+ n2 )times among the 𝑛 repetitions of the

experiment. Thence, on the basis of relative frequency, we have (for large 𝑛)

n1 +n2 n1 n2
P ( E1 ∪ E 2 )= = + =P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 )
n n n

The Addition Rule

 As an event 𝐸 and its complement E are mutually exclusive, we obtain on the

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

basis of Eq. 2.6

P ( E∪ E )=P ( E ) + P ( E )
 But since E ∪ E=S , we have, on the basis of Eq. 2.5, P ( E∪ E )=P ( S )=1.
Hence, we obtain the first useful relation
P ( E )=1−P ( E )( 2.7 )
 More generally, if two events E1∧E 2 are not mutually exclusive, the addition
rule is
P ( E1 ∪ E 2 )=P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) −P ( E 1 E2 ) ( 2.8 )

 Extending the addition rule to three events E1 , E2 , E3 we would have

P ( E1 ∪ E 2 ∪ E3 )

¿ P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + P ( E3 ) −P ( E 1 E2 ) −P ( E1 E 3 )

−P ( E2 E3 ) + P ( E1 E 2 E3 )

( 2.9 )
 The above procedure of the addition rule may be extended to the union of any
number of events: however, for 𝑛 events the probability of the union may be
obtained more conveniently by applying the de Morgan’s rule, as follows

P ( E1 ∪ E 2 ∪ E3 ∪ ⋯ ∪ En )

¿ 1−P ( E1 ∪ E2 ∪ E 3 ∪⋯ ∪ E n )
¿ 1−P ( E1 E2 E 3 ⋯ En )

( 2.9 )
 If the 𝑛 events are all mutually exclusive, however, extension of Axiom 3 yields

n
P ( E1 ∪ E 2 ∪ E3 ∪ ⋯ ∪ En ) =∑ P ( Ei )
i=1

( 2.6 a )

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Example 2.15 – Question Description

 In Example 2.8, two events associated with
the reactions at A and B are defined as
A=( R A >100 kg )

B=( R B >100 kg )

 These are represented by the respective

subsets in the sample space of Fig. E2.15.

Example 2.12 – Explanation

 For this illustration, we may assume that the sample points are all equally likely
to occur. This implies that the probability of an event within this sample space is
proportional to its “area” relative to the sample space.
1
 Total area of sample space ¿
2
[(300)2−( 100 )2 ] =40,000
 Then, referring to Fig. E2.15, we have
1
( 200 )2
2 1
P ( A )= =
40 , 000 2
 Similarly,
1
P ( B )=
2
 Whereas,
1
( 100 )2
2 1
P ( AB ) = =
40,000 8
 Therefore, according to Eq. 2.8, we obtain
1 1 1 7
P ( A ∪ B)= + − =
2 2 8 8
 From Fig. E2.15, we also obtain the area of the union
1
( A ∪B )=40,000− ( 100 )2=35,000
2
from which we also obtain
35,000 7
P ( A ∪ B)= =
40,000 8
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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Comprehension Questions

1. What is the way to combine two or more sets, or events?

2. If two sets are equal and both sets contain exactly the same sample points,
what’s the equation like?

3. What are the rules of the union and intersection of sets?

4. Intersection and union of sets, which one takes priority?

5. Which arithmetic operator doesn’t have equivalent operations of sets?

6. What is the important rule that applies to sets but has no counterpart in
conventional algebra?

7. According to Eqs. 2.3a and 2.3b, what duality relation can we establish?

8. Please write down three axioms which the theory of probability is based on.

9. With regard to Axiom 3, If an event E1 occurs n1 times among 𝑛 repetitions of

an experiment, and another event E2 occurs n2 times in the same 𝑛 repetitions,
in which E1 and E2 cannot occur simultaneously (they are mutually exclusive),
and how many times of the repetitions will occur?

10. If two events E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive and the addition rule is

P ( E1 ∪ E 2 )=P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) −P ( E 1 E2 ) , how to extend the addition rule to these

three events E1 , E2 , E3 ?

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Vocabulary 1: Match

1. ( ) intersection a. to prove that something exists or is true, or to

make certain that something is correct

2. ( ) notation b. relating to or involving algebra

3. ( ) repetition c. the condition of being dealt with before other

things or of being considered more important
than other things

4. ( ) algebraic d. in a way that is based on feelings rather than

facts or proof

5. ( ) counterpart e. a system of signs or symbols used to represent

information, especially in mathematics, science
and music

6. ( ) respectively f. to (cause something to) explode, break, or tear

7. ( ) verify g. a person or thing that has the same position or

function as sb/sth else in a different place or
situation

8. ( ) exclusive h. in the same order as the people or things already

mentioned

9. ( ) duality i. a statement or principle that is generally

accepted to be true

10. ( ) rupture j. (of a calculation) giving the same result whatever

the order in which the quantities are shown

11. ( ) intuitively k. not able to exist or be a true statement at the

same time as sth else

12. ( ) simultaneously l. the state of having two parts or aspects

13. ( ) axiom m. a place or area where two or more things (as

streets) intersect

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

14. ( ) commutative n. the act of doing or saying the same thing many
times

15. ( ) precedence o. in a way that is simultaneous (= happening or

being done at exactly the same time)

Vocabulary 2: Sentences

Choose from the words in Vocabulary 1 to complete the sentences below.

1. It is a widely held that governments should not negotiate with
terrorists.
2. He recognizes enough to be able to follow a score.
3. Some people think that uncontrolled economic growth and environmental
stability are mutually .
4. Two children answered the teacher's question .
5. These numbers are surprisingly high and they'll have to be .
6. The statistics for the various models are computed as the averages over 1,000
of 200 periods.
7. About an hour and a half later he was solving junior high level equations.
8. The Foreign Minister held talks with his Chinese .
9. Business people often think that fluency and communication take over
grammar when speaking.
10. Steven and James are aged 10 and 13 .
11. Rules can also be used for and noncommutative algebra.
12. His poems reveal the of his nature, the joy and hope, the fear and
despair.
13. , she knew that he was lying.
14. Certain petrol tanks in trucks can and burn in a collision.
15. The police give more traffic tickets at this street than any other place in
town.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Listening
In the listening part, please watch the videos below carefully and after watching
them, please share your opinions with your partners in class.
Listening 1
Probability: Intersection and Union of Sets
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNtyTiOhM0Y
Listening 2
De Morgan's Laws (in a probability context)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBGbwQDhceg

Speaking
The Tokyo Olympics, delayed a year by the coronavirus, ended in a mostly empty
stadium on August 8. Taipei, Aug. 7 (CNA) Taiwanese athletes completed their
participation in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics on Saturday with a record medal haul --
two golds, four silvers and six bronzes -- that ranked 21st for total medals as of
Saturday evening. Taiwanese athletes shattered their previous record of five medals
set at the Athens Olympics in 2004 with two golds, two silvers and one bronze.
Taiwan had its best-ever Olympic results!
Now the Winter Games begin in just six months in Beijing, with the next Summer
Games to start in Paris in 2024. Hope Taiwanese athletes can break their own record
and get better achievements in the 2024 Summer Olympics.
1. Did you watch the Tokyo Olympics? And how many Olympic events did you
watch?

2. Which Olympic events do you like most?

3. What's the most exciting sporting event you've ever been to? What sports
events would you like to attend?

4. In your opinion, what are the most popular sports in Taiwan?

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

5. What are your favorite sports? Do you still play them?

6. Who is your favorite sportsperson of all time? Why?

7. What do you think is the hardest thing about being a professional athlete?

Writing
1. What does “cause and effect” mean?
We normally use the writing skill, cause and effect, when explaining a certain
topic, agreeing or disagreeing a thought, convincing others, etc. We need to tell
our readers the reasons (causes) and the results (effects). It is usually used
among the questions starting with “what” and “why”. Most importantly, being
logical is the priority, and then find some proper phrases to explain the cause
and effect.
2. The word usage and the sentence structure
2.1 the words for the turning point
2.1.1 explain the cause
conjunctio as, because (of), for, since, now that, in that, seeing that…
n
prepositio because of, due to, for, owing to, on account of, thanks to…
n
2.1.2 explain the effect
conjunctio so, so…that, so…as to, such…that, such…as to…
n
adverb accordingly, as a consequence, as a result, consequently,
hence, therefore, thus…
prepositio as a result of, as a consequence of…
n
2.2 the sentence structure
2.2.1 explain the cause

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

The reason (why/that) + S + V… is that + S + V…

The reason (why/that) + S + V… is to V…
The reason for N/Ving…is that + S + V…
The reason for N/Ving…is to V…
The first/second/final reason is N…
The last and (the) most significant cause is…
2.2.2 explain the effect
The first and the most common effect is…
Sth also causes…
One effect…another…(still) another…
One effect…another (effect)…the third (effect)…the fourth (effect)…

Please write a cause and effect essay about 250 words by following the topic below.
Although cyberslang has its purpose, it is important that we also exercise our full
language writing skills. If we do not know how to write formally by using proper
words and grammar, we will not be impressing anyone.

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