ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善

Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

LESSON 3 Design and Decision Making

Under Uncertainty (II)
Reading
Read the following textbook passage about the design and decision making under
uncertainty. Then answer the comprehension questions below.

Introduction

● As indicated earlier, engineering information is generally of the type in which no

single observation or measurement is representative.

● Any evaluation or prediction must be performed on the basis of imperfect

models of the real world.

● Under the preceding situation, how should engineering designs be formulated or

decisions affecting a design and planning be determined?

● Presumably, we may assume consistently worse conditions and develop

conservative designs on this basis.

● However, this approach eschews any information on risk and lacks a systematic
basis for evaluating the degree of conservativeness; a resulting design may be
excessively costly, whereas one with insufficient conservatism may be unsafe.

● The optimal decision ought to be based on a trade-off between cost and benefit,
in order to achieve a balance between cost and system performance.

Planning and Design of Transportation Infrastructures

● In planning the transportation system of a city, there are numerous decisions

required.
● For example, in the case of a bridge across a river, more than one type of bridge
system may be feasible for the crossing. The cost for the design and construction
of each type of system will contain uncertainty; moreover, depending on the
political situation, the ability of the city to raise the level of available funding may

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

also be uncertain. Consequently, the selection of the type of bridge may be

based on the probability of the cost of a given system relative to the probabilities
of realistic levels of funding.
● In the design of pavements, such as a roadway pavement or airport pavement,
one of the principal decision variables (among several others) is the thickness of
a pavement system consisting of several layers of subgrade base material and the
finished pavement.
● The optimal thickness of the pavement system may be determined on the basis
of a trade-off between high initial cost with low maintenance, versus low initial
cost but high maintenance and replacement costs over the useful life of the
pavement.
● For the purpose of such a trade-off analysis, the relation between the life of a
pavement system and its thickness is required. The pavement life, however, is a
function also of other variables, including drainage condition, temperature
ranges, density, and degree of compaction of the subgrade.
● Since all these factors are random and contain variability, as depicted in Fig. 1.33
for the compacted subgrade density, the life of the pavement for a given
thickness cannot be predicted with complete certainty.

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Construction Planning and Management

● Many factors in the planning and management of construction projects are

subject to high variability and uncertainty, and may not be easily controlled.
● For example, the required durations of various activities in a construction project
will depend on the availability of resources, including labor and equipment and
their respective productivities, on weather conditions, and on availability of
construction materials.
● As none of these factors is completely predictable, the durations of the individual
activities in an activity network as well as the project duration cannot be
estimated with much precision or certainty (see, for example, Fig. 1.22) and thus
may have to be described as random variables.

● Therefore, in preparing a bid for a project, if conservative or pessimistic

completion time estimates are assumed, the bid price may be too high, thus
reducing the chance of winning the bid.
● On the other hand, if the bid is prepared on the basis of an optimistic estimate of
the project duration, the contractor may lose money or sacrifice profit in a
successful bid.

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

● What degree of conservativeness should the contractor exercise in order to

maximize his or her potential profit?
● Realistically, because of variabilities and uncertainties in a number of factors, the
answer may be based on a consideration of probability; i.e., the bid price may be
based on a project duration corresponding to a specified probability of
completion (see Fig. 1.23).

Applications in Quality Control and Assurance

● In order to ensure some minimum level of quality, or performance, of

engineering products or systems, inspections and quality control are necessary.
● Clearly, if the standard for acceptance is too stringent, it may unnecessarily
increase product cost or problems in compliance, and enforcement may be
difficult to achieve; on the other hand, if the standard is too lax, the quality of the
finished product may be overly compromised.
● Also, if the control variables or design variables are random, what constitutes a
stringent or non-stringent standard is not immediately clear; in these cases, the
standard of acceptance may be developed on the basis of probability
considerations.
● For example, in constructing an earth embankment, practical standards for
acceptability of the compaction need to recognize the variability in the density of

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

compacted soil, as illustrated in Fig. 1.33.

● Accordingly, an acceptance sampling plan may be developed based on

probability considerations and taking into account the inherent variability of
compacted earth material.

Photogrammetric, Geodetic, and Surveying Measurements

● All practical engineering measurements are subject to errors, which can be

classified as random and systematic errors.
● Systematic errors may be eliminated or minimized by evaluating them and
applying appropriate corrections.
● However, the magnitude and propagation of random errors, inherent in making
measurements, may be determined and analyzed properly on the basis of
statistical methods.
● Such a probability-based statistical approach is the only reliable means for
evaluating the accuracy once measurements are refined beyond instrument
capabilities.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Concluding Summary

● It is essential that these roles of probability concepts be recognized in order to

appreciate their true significance.
● The examples enumerated and described in Sections 1.2 and 1.3 should serve to
illustrate the pervasiveness of probability concepts in engineering planning and
design.
● The many examples presented also serve to illustrate, with real data and realistic
engineering problems, that randomness of real-world phenomena and
imperfections of engineering models are facts of life.
● Finally, it is important to correct any misconception that extensive data are
required to apply probability concepts; in fact, the usefulness and relevance of
such concepts are equally significant, irrespective of the sufficiency of data or
quality of information.
● The sufficiency of data and quality of information will affect the degree of
uncertainty, but should not lessen the usefulness of probability as the proper
tool for the analysis of such uncertainty and for the evaluation of its effects on
engineering performance and design.

Comprehension Questions

1. What model is the basis of the evaluation and prediction?

2. In accordance with the introduction, what is the ideal method for the design and
decision making?

3. What should be considered building a bridge?

4. What should be firstly considered designing a pavement?

5. What factor may affect the life of a pavement?

6. What may the availability of resources refer for the durations in a construction
project?

7. What should the contractor do to maximize his or her potential profit?

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

8. What is necessary to ensure the minimum level of quality or performance?

9. How can engineering measurements errors be classified?

10. In the conclusion, what will affect the degree of uncertainty?

Vocabulary 1: Match
1. ( ) consistent a. the practice of obeying rules or requests made by
people in authority

2. ( ) eschew b. the great size or importance of sth; the degree to

which sth is large or important

3. ( ) pavement c. a long artificial mound of stone or earth; built to

hold back water or to support a road or as
protection
4. ( ) maintenance d. the ground beneath a roadway or pavement

5. ( ) drainage e. to offer to pay a particular price for sth, especially

at an auction

6. ( ) subgrade f. always behaving in the same way, or having the

same opinions, standards, etc.

7. ( ) productivity g. to remove or get rid of sth/sb

8. ( ) bid h. spreading or spread throughout

9. ( ) correspond i. a flat part at the side of a road for people to walk

on

10. ( ) compliance j. the act of keeping sth in good condition by

checking or repairing it regularly

11. ( ) embankment k. the quality of being productive or having the

power to produce

12. ( ) eliminate l. specify individually

13. ( ) magnitude m. avoid and stay away from deliberately

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

14. ( ) enumerate n. the process by which water or liquid waste

is drained from an area

15. ( ) pervasive o. to be the same as or match sth

Vocabulary 2: Sentences
Choose from the words in Vocabulary 1 to complete the sentences below.

1. Although he appeared to enjoy a jet-setting life, he publicity and

avoided nightclubs.

2. The city planner decided to build an underground   system.

3. The  must be reinforced before the flood season.

4. Temasek Holdings made an agreed takeover of $351 million. 

5. Two men and a woman were walking briskly down the towards

him. 

6. Their conclusions do not   to their original hypotheses.

7. America and Russia do not face a problem of the same order of as

Japan.

8. The third-quarter results reflect continued improvements in .

9. When it comes to a decision between alternatives we  the

cost and benefits and decide which one is better.

10.  construction quality directly affects the quality of the road works.

11. Is racial conflict in America's second-largest city really so raw

and  ?

12. Only when all of us join efforts to   pollution at all levels can we

expect to have a better environment.

13. The U.N. Security Council has linked any lifting of sanctions to _____________

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Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

with the ceasefire terms.

14. Most of them are paid for what they do, whether they are doing

or cooking and cleaning.

15. While all of these countries face their own challenges, there are a number of

themes.

Listening

In the listening part, please watch the videos below carefully and after watching
them, please share your opinions with your partners in class.

Listening 1
Decision Theory Under Uncertainty - Itzhak Gilboa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owazk4B8qF0

Listening 2
Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex
https://www.ted.com/talks/tim_harford_trial_error_and_the_god_complex

Speaking
This picture is the same as the one in Unit 2. Please recall the practice you had
prepared last time.

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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Now imagine that you are invited to attend a wind power seminar in the Philippines.
During the discussion, one project representative is introducing this project to other
group members. After hearing it, you do not quite agree on the idea but are afraid
to interrupt him/her directly and also impolitely. Hence, please try to use some
polite ways of language strategies to express your opinions on the opposite side.

1. Please make a list of the disadvantages for this project.

2. How do people normally convince others?

3. How to make your talk more convincing?

4. When people discuss a certain topic, what are the manners that they should
follow and take into consideration?

5. Also, use some adverbs or transition words to make your speech better.
5.1 Changing direction or creating a 5.2 Acknowledging something and
comparison: moving to a different point:
However, … Although …
Rather, … Even though …
In contrast, … Despite …
Conversely, … Notwithstanding …
On one hand, …
On the other hand, …
In comparison, …
Compared to …
Another point to consider is …
5.3 Following a line of reasoning: 5.4 Summarizing:
Therefore, … Finally, …
Subsequently, … Lastly, …
Hence … In conclusion, …
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ESP for Engineering School – 林煜善
Probability Concepts in Engineering – Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering

Consequently, … To summarize, …
Accordingly, … In summary, …
As a result, … Overall, …
As a consequence, … The three main points are …
To this end, …

Writing
While you are doing an experiment in the laboratory, you find some components are
missing. You need to get the rest of them together to make the experiment work.
There are two solutions you can do: 1. Shop at Guanghua Digital Plaza. or 2. Shop
online.

Which way of shopping is better to you, shopping at Guanghua or shopping online?

Please explain why.

1. Pros and Cons list

Shopping at Guanghua Shopping online

Advantages
(Pros)

Disadvantages
(Cons)

2.

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