Answer ALL SIX questions in section A, ONE question in section B, and

ONE question in Section C.

The numbers in square brackets indicate the provisional allocation of maximum marks per
subsection of the question.

A list of formulae is attached to the end of this examination paper which may prove helpful.
A booklet of statistical tables is provided.

SECTION A

1. A radioactive isotope used for nuclear imaging decays so that the rate of decrease in the number
of atoms is proportional to the number of atoms present, N, which may be expressed as follows:
dN
  N .
dt
a) If there are N0 atoms present at time t = 0, solve the above first-order differential equation to
find an expression for the number of radium atoms N after time t. [4]

b) Use your result in part (a) to find  if the half-life of the isotope (i.e. the time at which the
number of atoms decays to half its initial value) is 69 minutes. [3]

2. Solve the following simultaneous equations, expressing both of the complex numbers p and q in
the form a + ib:
6 2 25 0

where i is the square root of 1. [6]

3. Consider the following 2 x 2 matrix A :

√
1 √3 1
√
√
1 √3
√

where i is the square root of 1.

a) Write down a matrix B where each element of B is the complex conjugate of the
corresponding element of A. [1]

b) Write down the matrix BT, the transpose of B. [1]

c) By multiplying BT by A, or otherwise, show that BT is equal to the inverse of A. [5]

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4. Consider a circle of radius r located within a 2D plane described by orthogonal unit vectors i
and j. The displacement between the coordinate origin and the centre of the circle is represented
by a vector c . With the aid of an appropriate diagram, show that
r = |c – a|
where a is a vector from the origin to any point on the circle. [3]

If c = 7i + j, radius r = 5, and a = i, calculate two possible values of . [3]

5. As part of a study of the correlation between obesity and the risk of cardiac disease, a
researcher is proposing a new measure of obesity (OB):
OB = (BMI / 40) + (WHR / 2) ,
where BMI = body mass index and WHR = waist-to-hip ratio. In a population of interest, the
average BMI is 28 with a standard deviation of 5, and the average WHR is 0.93 with a
standard deviation of 0.08.

a) Assuming that the BMI and the WHR are independent, calculate the mean and standard
deviation of OB for the population of interest. [2]

b) The covariance between the BMI and the WHR is actually 0.4. Given this new
information, calculate revised values of the mean and standard deviation of OB for the
population of interest. [2]

c) In a different population, the mean OB is 1.2 and the standard deviation is 0.2. In this
population, calculate the probability of observing an individual OB of 1.2. Determine
the probability of observing an individual OB in the interval [1.1; 1.6] assuming a
Normal distribution. [3]

6. Seven patients undergoing minimally invasive liver surgery experience a rare complication.
The hospital length of stay (in days) for these patients are:
3.0 10.5 14.5 9.0 10.0 8.5 5.5

a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the hospital length of stay for these seven
patients. [2]

b) The average hospital length of stay for this procedure when no complication occurs is
4.0 days. We are interested in the significance of the difference of length of stay
between the baseline case and the case when the rare complication occurs. State a null
hypothesis. What hypothesis test will you be using? State the conditions under which
this test is applicable. [2]

c) Compute the test statistics. Using a 1% significance threshold, would you reject this null
hypothesis? Explain your answer. [2]

d) Provide the definition of the p-value. [1]

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2
 SECTION B

7. A measurement of mineral content in bone using x-ray diffraction involves recording the
interference between N electromagnetic waves of different phase. This can be represented by the
following series:

N 1

 cos(  n )
n 0
.

a) Write out the first three terms. Using Euler’s formula, show that the above series can be
expressed as:

 N 1 

Re  e i (  n ) 
 n  0 

where Re{a + ib} = a, denoting the real part of a complex number. [5]

b) Use the result in part (a) to show that the sum of the N terms of the series is given by:

 ei (1  eiN ) 
Re  . [5]
 1  ei 

x
c) Prove the general result that: 1  eix  2i.eix / 2 . sin  . [4]
2

d) Using the result given in parts (b) and (c), show that:

 ( N  1)  N
N 1 cos   sin
  2  2
cos(  n )  . [7]

n0 sin
2

e) Calculate the sum given in part (d) for N = 6 and  = /15, and sketch your result over the
range from  = 0 to 2. [5]

f) Show that if N =  and  is a very small angle ( << , the equation in part (d) is
approximately equal to:

2 sin 
 . [4]


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8. Long bones such as the femur are subject to significant compression. Consider a bone of length
L aligned vertically along the x axis as shown below. A compressive force F is applied along the
axis of the bone, which can cause the bone to bend (dashed lines). The displacement of the bone
in the horizontal (y) direction is described by the following equation:

where F > 0, E is Young’s modulus, and I is known as the second moment of area.

a) Derive a general solution to the above differential equation, y(x). [5]

b) Using the condition that y = 0 at both ends of the bone (i.e. at x = 0 and x = L), show that:
C.sin(L) = 0
where 2 = F/EI and C is the maximum horizontal displacement of the bone. [3]

c) Explain why the result in part (b) provides a valid solution where the bone does not bend,
irrespective of the strength of the compressive force, but only if the bone is initially
perfectly straight. [3]

d) If the bone bends to a non-zero maximum displacement C, show that:

 n x 
y  C . sin   [5]
 L 

where n is a non-zero integer, and that the minimum compressive force is given by:
 2 EI
F . [3]
L2
e) Sketch the displacement y as a function of distance x along the bone for n = 1, 2, and 3.
[5]

f) If the bottom end of the bone is held fixed at y = 0 while the top end moves to a maximum
displacement y = C, show that the minimum compressive force is given by:
 2 EI
F . [6]
4L2

MPHY3893/2016 CONTINUED
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 SECTION C

9. a) A breast cancer test has the following receiver operating curve (ROC):
1

0.9

0.8

0.7
sensitivity
0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
1-specificity

i) Is this test better than a random guess? Explain why. [2]

The equation of the above curve is:

1 1 .

ii) For a specificity of 0.95, what sensitivity does the test provide? (Let’s call the
corresponding operating point A). [3]

iii) For a sensitivity of 0.95, what specificity does the test provide? (Let’s call the
corresponding operating point B). [4]

iv) The focus of the test is to screen for and detect the potential presence of an occult
breast cancer. Should we run the test at operating point A or operating point B?
Explain why. [3]

v) The prevalence of breast cancer in a given hospital is such that 2 out of 100 women
undertaking the above test have breast cancer. An average of 20 women take the test
every working day. What is the average number (mean) of women having breast
cancer and taking the test in a week of five working days? What is the probability of
having five or more women having breast cancer taking the test in a given week?
What discrete distribution did you use? [3]

vi) Again using a prevalence of 2 out of 100 women undertaking the test having breast
cancer, calculate the positive predictive value of the test when run at operating point
B on the ROC curve (i.e. with sensitivity 0.95) in this hospital? What is the negative
predictive value? [5]

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 b) The electric field E observed at a distance x from a particle with charge q is equal to:

where k is a constant. An electric dipole consists of two particles. One has a charge e at a
distance x – r from a point A, and the other has a charge –e at a distance x + r from point A.

i) The total electric field at point A due to both charged particles is equal to the sum of the
fields due to the two particles. Show that this is given by:

1 1 [2]

where  = r/x.

ii) If it is assumed that x >> r, use a Maclaurin series expansion to show that:

2 . [6]

iii) Calculate the percentage error in the above approximation when  = 0.01. [2]

MPHY3893/2016 CONTINUED
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10. a) A new breast cancer test referred to as Test C has a specificity of 0.8 and an unknown
sensitivity. A healthy volunteer takes the test five times.

i) Assuming independence between the test results, what is the probability of the test
being positive once out of the five trials? What distribution did you use for this
computation? [3]

A patient takes the test 10 times and gets five negative results out of 10. We are interested
in the significance of this result with respect to the patient having breast cancer. A one-
sided test will be used.

ii) What hypothesis test would you use? State your null hypothesis. Provide the p-value.
Using a 5% significance threshold, what is the conclusion of the hypothesis test? [6]

iii) Why is a one-sided test relevant in this case? [3]

The above binary test is actually based on a threshold of a continuous measurement. A

control group of 21 patients shows the following continuous measurements:
0.3 1.6 0.4 0.7 1.8 2.8 0.3 3.5 1.9
0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 2.2 4.6 1.5
0.8 1.8 1.2

iv) Sketch a histogram of these measurements using five bins centred around 0.5, 1.5,
2.5, 3.5, and 4.5. Why should a log-transformation of the data be used? Calculate the
natural logarithm (i.e. logarithm in base e) of the data. [4]

In a group of five patients with a genetic predisposition for breast cancer, the log-
transformed data is measured to be:
-0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.2
We are interested in testing for a significant difference between the groups.

v) What hypothesis test would you use? What are the underlying assumptions? State
your null hypothesis. Using a 5% significance threshold, what is the conclusion of
the hypothesis test? [4]

b) During laser surgery, an optical fibre is inserted via an endoscope within a hollow cylindrical
vessel of internal radius r. The fibre uniformly irradiates an area on the interior surface of the
vessel bounded by the following four points expressed in cylindrical coordinates (radius,
angle in radians, height in millimetres):

(r, 0, 0) , (r, /4, 0) , (r, /4, 16) , (r, 0, 16).

The height axis is defined as the central axis along the vessel. The laser beam removes tissue
below the irradiated surface at a constant rate of C mm3.s-1.

i) Calculate the initial area of irradiated tissue in terms of r. [3]

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 ii) Assuming the beam is always normal to the surface, calculate the time t required to
remove a layer of the vessel wall down to a uniform depth p below the surface,
expressing your answer in terms of r, p, and C. [4]

iii) Use your result in (b) to calculate an expression for the rate of tissue removal, dp/dt.
[3]

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 LIST OF FORMULAE

The following may be helpful.

a) Trigonometric Identities cos2  + sin2  = 1

sin (A + B) = sin A cos B + cos A sin B

sin (A − B) = sin A cos B − cos A sin B
cos (A + B) = cos A cos B − sin A sin B
cos (A − B) = cos A cos B + sin A sin B

b) Euler’s formula: ei = cos  + i sin 

c) De Moivre’s theorem: (ei)n = cos(n) + i sin(n)

d) Sum of Arithmetic series:

n
a + (a + d) + (a + 2d) + (a + 3d) + …. + (a + [n - 1]d) = [2a  ( n  1)d ]
2
e) Sum of Geometric series:
a (1  r n )
a + ar + ar2 + ar3 + …. + ar n-1 =
1 r
f) Vector product:

p x q = (p1 i + p2 j + p3 k) x (q1 i + q2 j + q3 k)
= (p2q3 – p3q2) i + (p3q1 – p1q3) j + (p1q2 – p2q1) k

g) General solution for a quadratic equation of the form ax2 + bx + c = 0 :

 b  b 2  4ac
x
2a

h) The Maclaurin series expansion of a function f(x) about the point x = 0 is given by:

df (0) d 2 f (0) x 2 d n f (0) x n

f ( x)  f (0)  .x  .  ...  .
dx dx 2 2! dx n n!

n!
i) Binomial distribution: Pr; p, n   p r (1  p) ( nr )
r!(n  r )!

ex x r
j) Poisson distribution: Pr; x  
r!

  x   2
1
k) Gaussian distribution: P  x;  ,    e 2 2

 2

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l) Unpaired student t statistics: with

m) Welch’s t test: with

n) Pearson t test:

MPHY3893/2016 END OF PAPER

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